Player Spotlight: Wes Welker (1 Viewer)

[jurb26]

So, David, are you going to be projecting close to 400 completions and 4800 yards for Brady with decreased TDs?

I haven't done the math, but I would guess in the vicinity of 375-4500-35 (although I do think he could make it to 40 bt would not project that). I think NE will make another run at 500 points (which would still be 89 fewer points scored than last year).NE won 18 games in a row. Until teams show a way to consistently stop them, why should they change what was working? I know they lost to NYG, but few teams have the defensive personnel to effectively replicate what the Giants did in the SB.

Just an FYI, Moss scored 46% of NE's passing TDs last year. Based on your projections for the NE passing game, and given the assumption that Moss again scores 46% of the NE passing TDs (not a bad assumption if you ask me) that puts him at 16 TDs.

I see Moss getting a smaller % of the receiving TD as well. I would put him at 13 or 14 at the moment. So IMO, losing 10 TD is a pretty major chuck of his fantasy production.

Again, that is not the point. The point is that Moss can still loose those 10 TDs or so and in all reality be the #1 overall WR. Those 13-14 TDs would have led the NFL in both 2006 and 2005. I already stated in my early post I see Moss scoring in the 12-17 TD range. I feel 17 is a more probable result than 12 given he stays healthy. Regardless, he is in the running for the #1 WR anywhere in that range. Welker, not so much. Welker didn't break double digit TDs last year in what looks like a career year.

 

[Boston]

So, David, are you going to be projecting close to 400 completions and 4800 yards for Brady with decreased TDs?

I haven't done the math, but I would guess in the vicinity of 375-4500-35 (although I do think he could make it to 40 bt would not project that). I think NE will make another run at 500 points (which would still be 89 fewer points scored than last year).NE won 18 games in a row. Until teams show a way to consistently stop them, why should they change what was working? I know they lost to NYG, but few teams have the defensive personnel to effectively replicate what the Giants did in the SB.

Thanks. That is pretty much at the high end of the likely range I see them getting, but not too far off. Do you see the WR3-5, RBs and TEs accounting for a smaller piece of the pie. I like Chad Jackson to outperform 2007 Donte Stallworth, and think that he might negatively impact Welker also.

What have you seen in Jackson's two years with the Pats that would lead you to believe he'll have better numbers than Stallworth? I hope your right but the kid has done squat since he's been here and has yet to show he can stay healthy or has the maturity to produce at the NFL level. If the kid produces close to what Stallworth did last year I would be absolutely thrilled.

 

[David Yudkin]

So, David, are you going to be projecting close to 400 completions and 4800 yards for Brady with decreased TDs?

I haven't done the math, but I would guess in the vicinity of 375-4500-35 (although I do think he could make it to 40 bt would not project that). I think NE will make another run at 500 points (which would still be 89 fewer points scored than last year).NE won 18 games in a row. Until teams show a way to consistently stop them, why should they change what was working? I know they lost to NYG, but few teams have the defensive personnel to effectively replicate what the Giants did in the SB.

Just an FYI, Moss scored 46% of NE's passing TDs last year. Based on your projections for the NE passing game, and given the assumption that Moss again scores 46% of the NE passing TDs (not a bad assumption if you ask me) that puts him at 16 TDs.

I see Moss getting a smaller % of the receiving TD as well. I would put him at 13 or 14 at the moment. So IMO, losing 10 TD is a pretty major chuck of his fantasy production.

Again, that is not the point. The point is that Moss can still loose those 10 TDs or so and in all reality be the #1 overall WR. I already stated in my early post I see Moss scoring in the 12-17 TD range. I feel 17 is a more probable result than 12 given he stays healthy. Regardless, he is in the running for the #1 WR anywhere in that range. Welker, not so much. Welker didn't break double digit TDs last year in what looks like a career year.

Fantasy wise, Moss could again be the #1 fantasy WR but still not be worth where he gets drafted value wise. Welker has some wiggle room, as he could fall to a point where he will be worth drafting. WE KNOW Moss is going to (most likely) go as the #1 WR. I play almost exclusively in PPR leagues, making Welker a valuable commodity. Will he be worth more than Moss in terms of total fantasy points? Of course not. But he could fall and still outproduce his draft position. I still think percentage wise Moss will lose a bigger percentage of production than Welker will.

 

[David Yudkin]

So, David, are you going to be projecting close to 400 completions and 4800 yards for Brady with decreased TDs?

I haven't done the math, but I would guess in the vicinity of 375-4500-35 (although I do think he could make it to 40 bt would not project that). I think NE will make another run at 500 points (which would still be 89 fewer points scored than last year).NE won 18 games in a row. Until teams show a way to consistently stop them, why should they change what was working? I know they lost to NYG, but few teams have the defensive personnel to effectively replicate what the Giants did in the SB.

Thanks. That is pretty much at the high end of the likely range I see them getting, but not too far off. Do you see the WR3-5, RBs and TEs accounting for a smaller piece of the pie. I like Chad Jackson to outperform 2007 Donte Stallworth, and think that he might negatively impact Welker also.

What have you seen in Jackson's two years with the Pats that would lead you to believe he'll have better numbers than Stallworth? I hope your right but the kid has done squat since he's been here and has yet to show he can stay healthy or has the maturity to produce at the NFL level. If the kid produces close to what Stallworth did last year I would be absolutely thrilled.

You didn't ask me, but I will answer. I fully believe that the Pats will give Jackson every chance to be an every down player and beat out Gaffney this year. He has not done much because he's been hurt. I hear that the Pats are big on Jackson and not as big on Gaffney, which leads me to the conclusion that Jackson will get his chance and then some.Granted, he still has to earn the job and actually do something, so there is a decent chance he will not perform and/or gets hurt again. But NE had similar issues with Branch and Givens (both dinged up and not huge producers early on).

 

[jurb26]

So, David, are you going to be projecting close to 400 completions and 4800 yards for Brady with decreased TDs?

I haven't done the math, but I would guess in the vicinity of 375-4500-35 (although I do think he could make it to 40 bt would not project that). I think NE will make another run at 500 points (which would still be 89 fewer points scored than last year).NE won 18 games in a row. Until teams show a way to consistently stop them, why should they change what was working? I know they lost to NYG, but few teams have the defensive personnel to effectively replicate what the Giants did in the SB.

Just an FYI, Moss scored 46% of NE's passing TDs last year. Based on your projections for the NE passing game, and given the assumption that Moss again scores 46% of the NE passing TDs (not a bad assumption if you ask me) that puts him at 16 TDs.

I see Moss getting a smaller % of the receiving TD as well. I would put him at 13 or 14 at the moment. So IMO, losing 10 TD is a pretty major chuck of his fantasy production.

Again, that is not the point. The point is that Moss can still loose those 10 TDs or so and in all reality be the #1 overall WR. I already stated in my early post I see Moss scoring in the 12-17 TD range. I feel 17 is a more probable result than 12 given he stays healthy. Regardless, he is in the running for the #1 WR anywhere in that range. Welker, not so much. Welker didn't break double digit TDs last year in what looks like a career year.

Fantasy wise, Moss could again be the #1 fantasy WR but still not be worth where he gets drafted value wise. Welker has some wiggle room, as he could fall to a point where he will be worth drafting. WE KNOW Moss is going to (most likely) go as the #1 WR. I play almost exclusively in PPR leagues, making Welker a valuable commodity. Will he be worth more than Moss in terms of total fantasy points? Of course not. But he could fall and still outproduce his draft position. I still think percentage wise Moss will lose a bigger percentage of production than Welker will.

I would agree that Welker's value increases in PPR. One other aspect about Welker that shies me away from him is that IMO he is pretty reliant on Moss in the scheme of things. With Moss, you know he will get his so long as he is healthy. With Welker I think you have to worry that an injury to Moss will all but kill his value as well. So with Welker, you have to worry not just about him getting injured, but Moss as well.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

So, David, are you going to be projecting close to 400 completions and 4800 yards for Brady with decreased TDs?

I haven't done the math, but I would guess in the vicinity of 375-4500-35 (although I do think he could make it to 40 bt would not project that). I think NE will make another run at 500 points (which would still be 89 fewer points scored than last year).NE won 18 games in a row. Until teams show a way to consistently stop them, why should they change what was working? I know they lost to NYG, but few teams have the defensive personnel to effectively replicate what the Giants did in the SB.

Thanks. That is pretty much at the high end of the likely range I see them getting, but not too far off. Do you see the WR3-5, RBs and TEs accounting for a smaller piece of the pie. I like Chad Jackson to outperform 2007 Donte Stallworth, and think that he might negatively impact Welker also.

What have you seen in Jackson's two years with the Pats that would lead you to believe he'll have better numbers than Stallworth? I hope your right but the kid has done squat since he's been here and has yet to show he can stay healthy or has the maturity to produce at the NFL level. If the kid produces close to what Stallworth did last year I would be absolutely thrilled.

I liked his ability (big, fast, athletic) coming out, and think that NE drafts well enough to trust them when they move up to get a guy. He showed flashes his rookie year and gets a pass last year for the injury issues and the logjam ahead of him at WR.

 

[T Bell]

So, David, are you going to be projecting close to 400 completions and 4800 yards for Brady with decreased TDs?

I haven't done the math, but I would guess in the vicinity of 375-4500-35 (although I do think he could make it to 40 bt would not project that). I think NE will make another run at 500 points (which would still be 89 fewer points scored than last year).NE won 18 games in a row. Until teams show a way to consistently stop them, why should they change what was working? I know they lost to NYG, but few teams have the defensive personnel to effectively replicate what the Giants did in the SB.

Just an FYI, Moss scored 46% of NE's passing TDs last year. Based on your projections for the NE passing game, and given the assumption that Moss again scores 46% of the NE passing TDs (not a bad assumption if you ask me) that puts him at 16 TDs.

I see Moss getting a smaller % of the receiving TD as well. I would put him at 13 or 14 at the moment. So IMO, losing 10 TD is a pretty major chuck of his fantasy production.

Again, that is not the point. The point is that Moss can still loose those 10 TDs or so and in all reality be the #1 overall WR. I already stated in my early post I see Moss scoring in the 12-17 TD range. I feel 17 is a more probable result than 12 given he stays healthy. Regardless, he is in the running for the #1 WR anywhere in that range. Welker, not so much. Welker didn't break double digit TDs last year in what looks like a career year.

Fantasy wise, Moss could again be the #1 fantasy WR but still not be worth where he gets drafted value wise. Welker has some wiggle room, as he could fall to a point where he will be worth drafting. WE KNOW Moss is going to (most likely) go as the #1 WR. I play almost exclusively in PPR leagues, making Welker a valuable commodity. Will he be worth more than Moss in terms of total fantasy points? Of course not. But he could fall and still outproduce his draft position. I still think percentage wise Moss will lose a bigger percentage of production than Welker will.

Moss "should" have been the ~3rd overall player drafted in PPR leagues last year that start three WR's, and ~5th player overall in start-2 WR leagues using VBD. Even if he remains WR1, but his numbers drop to 85/1500/15, he won't justify being anywhere near that lofty VBD rank.

 

[thecardiackid]

PPR gold Jerry, GOLD!

And I think Gaffney will be the ADP value play (vs. Jackson) THIS season - not to rile up DY - just a *gut feeling*.

 

[jurb26]

So, David, are you going to be projecting close to 400 completions and 4800 yards for Brady with decreased TDs?

I haven't done the math, but I would guess in the vicinity of 375-4500-35 (although I do think he could make it to 40 bt would not project that). I think NE will make another run at 500 points (which would still be 89 fewer points scored than last year).NE won 18 games in a row. Until teams show a way to consistently stop them, why should they change what was working? I know they lost to NYG, but few teams have the defensive personnel to effectively replicate what the Giants did in the SB.

Just an FYI, Moss scored 46% of NE's passing TDs last year. Based on your projections for the NE passing game, and given the assumption that Moss again scores 46% of the NE passing TDs (not a bad assumption if you ask me) that puts him at 16 TDs.

I see Moss getting a smaller % of the receiving TD as well. I would put him at 13 or 14 at the moment. So IMO, losing 10 TD is a pretty major chuck of his fantasy production.

Again, that is not the point. The point is that Moss can still loose those 10 TDs or so and in all reality be the #1 overall WR. I already stated in my early post I see Moss scoring in the 12-17 TD range. I feel 17 is a more probable result than 12 given he stays healthy. Regardless, he is in the running for the #1 WR anywhere in that range. Welker, not so much. Welker didn't break double digit TDs last year in what looks like a career year.

Fantasy wise, Moss could again be the #1 fantasy WR but still not be worth where he gets drafted value wise. Welker has some wiggle room, as he could fall to a point where he will be worth drafting. WE KNOW Moss is going to (most likely) go as the #1 WR. I play almost exclusively in PPR leagues, making Welker a valuable commodity. Will he be worth more than Moss in terms of total fantasy points? Of course not. But he could fall and still outproduce his draft position. I still think percentage wise Moss will lose a bigger percentage of production than Welker will.

Moss "should" have been the ~3rd overall player drafted in PPR leagues last year that start three WR's, and ~5th player overall in start-2 WR leagues using VBD. Even if he remains WR1, but his numbers drop to 85/1500/15, he won't justify being anywhere near that lofty VBD rank.

Where exactly have you seen Moss drafted anywhere near 5th overall?

 

[Boston]

So, David, are you going to be projecting close to 400 completions and 4800 yards for Brady with decreased TDs?

I haven't done the math, but I would guess in the vicinity of 375-4500-35 (although I do think he could make it to 40 bt would not project that). I think NE will make another run at 500 points (which would still be 89 fewer points scored than last year).NE won 18 games in a row. Until teams show a way to consistently stop them, why should they change what was working? I know they lost to NYG, but few teams have the defensive personnel to effectively replicate what the Giants did in the SB.

Thanks. That is pretty much at the high end of the likely range I see them getting, but not too far off. Do you see the WR3-5, RBs and TEs accounting for a smaller piece of the pie. I like Chad Jackson to outperform 2007 Donte Stallworth, and think that he might negatively impact Welker also.

What have you seen in Jackson's two years with the Pats that would lead you to believe he'll have better numbers than Stallworth? I hope your right but the kid has done squat since he's been here and has yet to show he can stay healthy or has the maturity to produce at the NFL level. If the kid produces close to what Stallworth did last year I would be absolutely thrilled.

You didn't ask me, but I will answer. I fully believe that the Pats will give Jackson every chance to be an every down player and beat out Gaffney this year. He has not done much because he's been hurt. I hear that the Pats are big on Jackson and not as big on Gaffney, which leads me to the conclusion that Jackson will get his chance and then some.Granted, he still has to earn the job and actually do something, so there is a decent chance he will not perform and/or gets hurt again. But NE had similar issues with Branch and Givens (both dinged up and not huge producers early on).

I also believe the Pats would love to see Jax succeed and will give him every chance to do so. They obviously liked him enough to deal up in the second round for him. You can easily see he has some physical tools and it wasn't a fluke he blew people away his rookie year when they were practicing in shorts. That being said he has shown virtually nothing in two years. Also (and I'm sure your sources will verify this) there are serious questions about his maturity and whether Brady trusts him. That's far different than both Branch and Givens who were both solid citizens and very hardworkers during their time in Foxboro. Givens was a 7th round special teamer with few expectations who worked his tail off to become a starter and Branch showed potential on the field from the get go. Yes, he was dinged up early but he was still on the field enough to know that he had legit skills...which is more than we can say about Jax after his two years.I don't mean to be so down on Jax because I would love to see the lightbulb go on because that only means good things for the Pats. Yet, until I see actual production I have him in the Bethel Johnson category...who oddly enough was another physically gifted athlete who the Pats traded up for in the second round.

 

[David Yudkin]

So, David, are you going to be projecting close to 400 completions and 4800 yards for Brady with decreased TDs?

I haven't done the math, but I would guess in the vicinity of 375-4500-35 (although I do think he could make it to 40 bt would not project that). I think NE will make another run at 500 points (which would still be 89 fewer points scored than last year).NE won 18 games in a row. Until teams show a way to consistently stop them, why should they change what was working? I know they lost to NYG, but few teams have the defensive personnel to effectively replicate what the Giants did in the SB.

Thanks. That is pretty much at the high end of the likely range I see them getting, but not too far off. Do you see the WR3-5, RBs and TEs accounting for a smaller piece of the pie. I like Chad Jackson to outperform 2007 Donte Stallworth, and think that he might negatively impact Welker also.

What have you seen in Jackson's two years with the Pats that would lead you to believe he'll have better numbers than Stallworth? I hope your right but the kid has done squat since he's been here and has yet to show he can stay healthy or has the maturity to produce at the NFL level. If the kid produces close to what Stallworth did last year I would be absolutely thrilled.

You didn't ask me, but I will answer. I fully believe that the Pats will give Jackson every chance to be an every down player and beat out Gaffney this year. He has not done much because he's been hurt. I hear that the Pats are big on Jackson and not as big on Gaffney, which leads me to the conclusion that Jackson will get his chance and then some.Granted, he still has to earn the job and actually do something, so there is a decent chance he will not perform and/or gets hurt again. But NE had similar issues with Branch and Givens (both dinged up and not huge producers early on).

I also believe the Pats would love to see Jax succeed and will give him every chance to do so. They obviously liked him enough to deal up in the second round for him. You can easily see he has some physical tools and it wasn't a fluke he blew people away his rookie year when they were practicing in shorts. That being said he has shown virtually nothing in two years. Also (and I'm sure your sources will verify this) there are serious questions about his maturity and whether Brady trusts him. That's far different than both Branch and Givens who were both solid citizens and very hardworkers during their time in Foxboro. Givens was a 7th round special teamer with few expectations who worked his tail off to become a starter and Branch showed potential on the field from the get go. Yes, he was dinged up early but he was still on the field enough to know that he had legit skills...which is more than we can say about Jax after his two years.I don't mean to be so down on Jax because I would love to see the lightbulb go on because that only means good things for the Pats. Yet, until I see actual production I have him in the Bethel Johnson category...who oddly enough was another physically gifted athlete who the Pats traded up for in the second round.

I'm sure you have read what I have read with regard to Jackson and to Gaffney. I have also heard some other details that would lead me to conclude that the WR2 job will be Jackson's to win or lose even though right now Gaffney looks to be entrenched as the starter. I have not heard great things about Jackson from Year 1 or Year 2, but I also know that BB and the rest of the franchise likes to go with the guys that they drafted and will go the extra mile to prove themselves right.As far as Ganney goes, he had every intention on re-signing with NE and from what I can tell or have heard he was happy to come back without really pursuing any other teams. IIRC, he also came back happy to fill the roll he has filled the past two years (WR4). I don't think that either he or the team really considers him an every down player. I know the team HOPES Jackson can be that, and I'm pretty sure the team thinks Jackson has a much better skill set than Gaffney.The one knock I heard on Jackson is that even though he is quick, he has shown problems in the past in terms of getting seperation and/or getting open. I think that is why Brady has some concerns.As you said, we just don't have enough to go on, but I think what we don't know about Jackson is far more intriguing than what we do know about Gaffney. If Jackson does not fully emergre, I see a three headed hyrda of Gaffney, Jackson, and Washington all splitting up what would be the WR2 production.

 

[Boston]

So, David, are you going to be projecting close to 400 completions and 4800 yards for Brady with decreased TDs?

I haven't done the math, but I would guess in the vicinity of 375-4500-35 (although I do think he could make it to 40 bt would not project that). I think NE will make another run at 500 points (which would still be 89 fewer points scored than last year).NE won 18 games in a row. Until teams show a way to consistently stop them, why should they change what was working? I know they lost to NYG, but few teams have the defensive personnel to effectively replicate what the Giants did in the SB.

Thanks. That is pretty much at the high end of the likely range I see them getting, but not too far off. Do you see the WR3-5, RBs and TEs accounting for a smaller piece of the pie. I like Chad Jackson to outperform 2007 Donte Stallworth, and think that he might negatively impact Welker also.

What have you seen in Jackson's two years with the Pats that would lead you to believe he'll have better numbers than Stallworth? I hope your right but the kid has done squat since he's been here and has yet to show he can stay healthy or has the maturity to produce at the NFL level. If the kid produces close to what Stallworth did last year I would be absolutely thrilled.

You didn't ask me, but I will answer. I fully believe that the Pats will give Jackson every chance to be an every down player and beat out Gaffney this year. He has not done much because he's been hurt. I hear that the Pats are big on Jackson and not as big on Gaffney, which leads me to the conclusion that Jackson will get his chance and then some.Granted, he still has to earn the job and actually do something, so there is a decent chance he will not perform and/or gets hurt again. But NE had similar issues with Branch and Givens (both dinged up and not huge producers early on).

I also believe the Pats would love to see Jax succeed and will give him every chance to do so. They obviously liked him enough to deal up in the second round for him. You can easily see he has some physical tools and it wasn't a fluke he blew people away his rookie year when they were practicing in shorts. That being said he has shown virtually nothing in two years. Also (and I'm sure your sources will verify this) there are serious questions about his maturity and whether Brady trusts him. That's far different than both Branch and Givens who were both solid citizens and very hardworkers during their time in Foxboro. Givens was a 7th round special teamer with few expectations who worked his tail off to become a starter and Branch showed potential on the field from the get go. Yes, he was dinged up early but he was still on the field enough to know that he had legit skills...which is more than we can say about Jax after his two years.I don't mean to be so down on Jax because I would love to see the lightbulb go on because that only means good things for the Pats. Yet, until I see actual production I have him in the Bethel Johnson category...who oddly enough was another physically gifted athlete who the Pats traded up for in the second round.

I'm sure you have read what I have read with regard to Jackson and to Gaffney. I have also heard some other details that would lead me to conclude that the WR2 job will be Jackson's to win or lose even though right now Gaffney looks to be entrenched as the starter. I have not heard great things about Jackson from Year 1 or Year 2, but I also know that BB and the rest of the franchise likes to go with the guys that they drafted and will go the extra mile to prove themselves right.As far as Ganney goes, he had every intention on re-signing with NE and from what I can tell or have heard he was happy to come back without really pursuing any other teams. IIRC, he also came back happy to fill the roll he has filled the past two years (WR4). I don't think that either he or the team really considers him an every down player. I know the team HOPES Jackson can be that, and I'm pretty sure the team thinks Jackson has a much better skill set than Gaffney.The one knock I heard on Jackson is that even though he is quick, he has shown problems in the past in terms of getting seperation and/or getting open. I think that is why Brady has some concerns.As you said, we just don't have enough to go on, but I think what we don't know about Jackson is far more intriguing than what we do know about Gaffney. If Jackson does not fully emergre, I see a three headed hyrda of Gaffney, Jackson, and Washington all splitting up what would be the WR2 production.

It will be interesting to see if the TEs get more involved as well. Last year, once Thomas got hurt the TEs after Watson (Brady and Spach) were blockers. This year if the #2 and #3 TEs are Thomas and Pollard they are more of the pass catching variety. If the Pats were going to lean more on the run (as many have suggested) you would think they would have added a big time blocker to the mix but as of now that doesn't seem to be the case.

 

[David Yudkin]

So, David, are you going to be projecting close to 400 completions and 4800 yards for Brady with decreased TDs?

I haven't done the math, but I would guess in the vicinity of 375-4500-35 (although I do think he could make it to 40 bt would not project that). I think NE will make another run at 500 points (which would still be 89 fewer points scored than last year).NE won 18 games in a row. Until teams show a way to consistently stop them, why should they change what was working? I know they lost to NYG, but few teams have the defensive personnel to effectively replicate what the Giants did in the SB.

Thanks. That is pretty much at the high end of the likely range I see them getting, but not too far off. Do you see the WR3-5, RBs and TEs accounting for a smaller piece of the pie. I like Chad Jackson to outperform 2007 Donte Stallworth, and think that he might negatively impact Welker also.

What have you seen in Jackson's two years with the Pats that would lead you to believe he'll have better numbers than Stallworth? I hope your right but the kid has done squat since he's been here and has yet to show he can stay healthy or has the maturity to produce at the NFL level. If the kid produces close to what Stallworth did last year I would be absolutely thrilled.

You didn't ask me, but I will answer. I fully believe that the Pats will give Jackson every chance to be an every down player and beat out Gaffney this year. He has not done much because he's been hurt. I hear that the Pats are big on Jackson and not as big on Gaffney, which leads me to the conclusion that Jackson will get his chance and then some.Granted, he still has to earn the job and actually do something, so there is a decent chance he will not perform and/or gets hurt again. But NE had similar issues with Branch and Givens (both dinged up and not huge producers early on).

I also believe the Pats would love to see Jax succeed and will give him every chance to do so. They obviously liked him enough to deal up in the second round for him. You can easily see he has some physical tools and it wasn't a fluke he blew people away his rookie year when they were practicing in shorts. That being said he has shown virtually nothing in two years. Also (and I'm sure your sources will verify this) there are serious questions about his maturity and whether Brady trusts him. That's far different than both Branch and Givens who were both solid citizens and very hardworkers during their time in Foxboro. Givens was a 7th round special teamer with few expectations who worked his tail off to become a starter and Branch showed potential on the field from the get go. Yes, he was dinged up early but he was still on the field enough to know that he had legit skills...which is more than we can say about Jax after his two years.I don't mean to be so down on Jax because I would love to see the lightbulb go on because that only means good things for the Pats. Yet, until I see actual production I have him in the Bethel Johnson category...who oddly enough was another physically gifted athlete who the Pats traded up for in the second round.

I'm sure you have read what I have read with regard to Jackson and to Gaffney. I have also heard some other details that would lead me to conclude that the WR2 job will be Jackson's to win or lose even though right now Gaffney looks to be entrenched as the starter. I have not heard great things about Jackson from Year 1 or Year 2, but I also know that BB and the rest of the franchise likes to go with the guys that they drafted and will go the extra mile to prove themselves right.As far as Ganney goes, he had every intention on re-signing with NE and from what I can tell or have heard he was happy to come back without really pursuing any other teams. IIRC, he also came back happy to fill the roll he has filled the past two years (WR4). I don't think that either he or the team really considers him an every down player. I know the team HOPES Jackson can be that, and I'm pretty sure the team thinks Jackson has a much better skill set than Gaffney.The one knock I heard on Jackson is that even though he is quick, he has shown problems in the past in terms of getting seperation and/or getting open. I think that is why Brady has some concerns.As you said, we just don't have enough to go on, but I think what we don't know about Jackson is far more intriguing than what we do know about Gaffney. If Jackson does not fully emergre, I see a three headed hyrda of Gaffney, Jackson, and Washington all splitting up what would be the WR2 production.

It will be interesting to see if the TEs get more involved as well. Last year, once Thomas got hurt the TEs after Watson (Brady and Spach) were blockers. This year if the #2 and #3 TEs are Thomas and Pollard they are more of the pass catching variety. If the Pats were going to lean more on the run (as many have suggested) you would think they would have added a big time blocker to the mix but as of now that doesn't seem to be the case.

It came out this week that NE had big issues with KBrady last year. I think they could still add a big body to block at TE. Thomas falls in the same category as Jackson in that he's been hurt and not accounted for much as of yet. Pollard was a strange signing in that he can catch and at this point probably is a liability blocking. Makes me wonder how Watson is doing in terms of his recovery. Pollard might be cut before the season starts if Watson and Thomas show that they are healthy.

 

[T Bell]

So, David, are you going to be projecting close to 400 completions and 4800 yards for Brady with decreased TDs?

I haven't done the math, but I would guess in the vicinity of 375-4500-35 (although I do think he could make it to 40 bt would not project that). I think NE will make another run at 500 points (which would still be 89 fewer points scored than last year).NE won 18 games in a row. Until teams show a way to consistently stop them, why should they change what was working? I know they lost to NYG, but few teams have the defensive personnel to effectively replicate what the Giants did in the SB.

Just an FYI, Moss scored 46% of NE's passing TDs last year. Based on your projections for the NE passing game, and given the assumption that Moss again scores 46% of the NE passing TDs (not a bad assumption if you ask me) that puts him at 16 TDs.

I see Moss getting a smaller % of the receiving TD as well. I would put him at 13 or 14 at the moment. So IMO, losing 10 TD is a pretty major chuck of his fantasy production.

Again, that is not the point. The point is that Moss can still loose those 10 TDs or so and in all reality be the #1 overall WR. I already stated in my early post I see Moss scoring in the 12-17 TD range. I feel 17 is a more probable result than 12 given he stays healthy. Regardless, he is in the running for the #1 WR anywhere in that range. Welker, not so much. Welker didn't break double digit TDs last year in what looks like a career year.

Fantasy wise, Moss could again be the #1 fantasy WR but still not be worth where he gets drafted value wise. Welker has some wiggle room, as he could fall to a point where he will be worth drafting. WE KNOW Moss is going to (most likely) go as the #1 WR. I play almost exclusively in PPR leagues, making Welker a valuable commodity. Will he be worth more than Moss in terms of total fantasy points? Of course not. But he could fall and still outproduce his draft position. I still think percentage wise Moss will lose a bigger percentage of production than Welker will.

Moss "should" have been the ~3rd overall player drafted in PPR leagues last year that start three WR's, and ~5th player overall in start-2 WR leagues using VBD. Even if he remains WR1, but his numbers drop to 85/1500/15, he won't justify being anywhere near that lofty VBD rank.

Where exactly have you seen Moss drafted anywhere near 5th overall?

Where did I say he should be? Reread my post.

 

[Jedimaster21]

I think Welker is a very good NFL player, but just a possession WR and had a career year. He is quick and able to get open, but has minimal skills after the catch and doesn't have elite speed/athleticism. His YPC leaves something to be desired, but he will continue to hold some value in PPR formats. His TDs will definitely drop as the offense drops slightly as a whole, and their rushing TDs increase slightly. I just don't see much upside with this player.

90 catches for 900 yards, 5 TDs

 

[TheFanatic]

So, David, are you going to be projecting close to 400 completions and 4800 yards for Brady with decreased TDs?

I haven't done the math, but I would guess in the vicinity of 375-4500-35 (although I do think he could make it to 40 bt would not project that). I think NE will make another run at 500 points (which would still be 89 fewer points scored than last year).

NE won 18 games in a row. Until teams show a way to consistently stop them, why should they change what was working? I know they lost to NYG, but few teams have the defensive personnel to effectively replicate what the Giants did in the SB.

This is what keeps sticking in my head. I'm a big believer in regression towards the mean, but I just don't see the Patriots changing their game plan from what was wildly successful last year to running the ball more and only throwing 30 TD's. I can see Brady throwing more than 40 again this year. I also see that Belichek will react better to the tactics the Giants used to beat them in the SB (screen passes, and short slants). I see Welker doing pretty as he will get a lot of those short slants

 

[T Bell]

So, David, are you going to be projecting close to 400 completions and 4800 yards for Brady with decreased TDs?

I haven't done the math, but I would guess in the vicinity of 375-4500-35 (although I do think he could make it to 40 bt would not project that). I think NE will make another run at 500 points (which would still be 89 fewer points scored than last year).

NE won 18 games in a row. Until teams show a way to consistently stop them, why should they change what was working? I know they lost to NYG, but few teams have the defensive personnel to effectively replicate what the Giants did in the SB.

This is what keeps sticking in my head. I'm a big believer in regression towards the mean, but I just don't see the Patriots changing their game plan from what was wildly successful last year to running the ball more and only throwing 30 TD's. I can see Brady throwing more than 40 again this year. I also see that Belichek will react better to the tactics the Giants used to beat them in the SB (screen passes, and short slants). I see Welker doing pretty as he will get a lot of those short slants

How much did the Colts change their game plan from 2004 to 2005? How much did the 2007 Patriots change their game plan from the first half of 2007 to the second half?

The offense's game plan is only part of the issue. The defense gets paid too, and they make adjustments. Things change, even subtle things. I think 30 TD's is low too, but I'd be amazed if they reached 40 again. That's a very difficult number to reach, much less twice.

 

[TheFanatic]

So, David, are you going to be projecting close to 400 completions and 4800 yards for Brady with decreased TDs?

I haven't done the math, but I would guess in the vicinity of 375-4500-35 (although I do think he could make it to 40 bt would not project that). I think NE will make another run at 500 points (which would still be 89 fewer points scored than last year).

NE won 18 games in a row. Until teams show a way to consistently stop them, why should they change what was working? I know they lost to NYG, but few teams have the defensive personnel to effectively replicate what the Giants did in the SB.

This is what keeps sticking in my head. I'm a big believer in regression towards the mean, but I just don't see the Patriots changing their game plan from what was wildly successful last year to running the ball more and only throwing 30 TD's. I can see Brady throwing more than 40 again this year. I also see that Belichek will react better to the tactics the Giants used to beat them in the SB (screen passes, and short slants). I see Welker doing pretty as he will get a lot of those short slants

How much did the Colts change their game plan from 2004 to 2005? How much did the 2007 Patriots change their game plan from the first half of 2007 to the second half?

The offense's game plan is only part of the issue. The defense gets paid too, and they make adjustments. Things change, even subtle things. I think 30 TD's is low too, but I'd be amazed if they reached 40 again. That's a very difficult number to reach, much less twice.

A big part of me agrees with this, but I just have the feeling that they are going to come out and run it up on everyone. I think they want the perfect season. They want to have teams intimidated when they come to town. I just think they are going to try to blow the doors off everyone and have a cake schedule to do so....I think weather had an impact on the second half last year. If they come out like gangbusters again this year I can see them going nuts again. The Patriots rode all that negative press last year to 589 points. With all the spygate stuff still going on, the practicing of IR's players, the commish saying he doesn't believe BB, and losing in the SB tells me they still have something to prove. Are you going to bet against them? I'm not.

 

[T Bell]

So, David, are you going to be projecting close to 400 completions and 4800 yards for Brady with decreased TDs?

I haven't done the math, but I would guess in the vicinity of 375-4500-35 (although I do think he could make it to 40 bt would not project that). I think NE will make another run at 500 points (which would still be 89 fewer points scored than last year).

NE won 18 games in a row. Until teams show a way to consistently stop them, why should they change what was working? I know they lost to NYG, but few teams have the defensive personnel to effectively replicate what the Giants did in the SB.

This is what keeps sticking in my head. I'm a big believer in regression towards the mean, but I just don't see the Patriots changing their game plan from what was wildly successful last year to running the ball more and only throwing 30 TD's. I can see Brady throwing more than 40 again this year. I also see that Belichek will react better to the tactics the Giants used to beat them in the SB (screen passes, and short slants). I see Welker doing pretty as he will get a lot of those short slants

How much did the Colts change their game plan from 2004 to 2005? How much did the 2007 Patriots change their game plan from the first half of 2007 to the second half?

The offense's game plan is only part of the issue. The defense gets paid too, and they make adjustments. Things change, even subtle things. I think 30 TD's is low too, but I'd be amazed if they reached 40 again. That's a very difficult number to reach, much less twice.

A big part of me agrees with this, but I just have the feeling that they are going to come out and run it up on everyone. I think they want the perfect season. They want to have teams intimidated when they come to town. I just think they are going to try to blow the doors off everyone and have a cake schedule to do so....I think weather had an impact on the second half last year. If they come out like gangbusters again this year I can see them going nuts again. The Patriots rode all that negative press last year to 589 points. With all the spygate stuff still going on, the practicing of IR's players, the commish saying he doesn't believe BB, and losing in the SB tells me they still have something to prove. Are you going to bet against them? I'm not.

I don't disagree with you. I think they're virtually guaranteed to be a 13-win team, and we may well see them make another late season run at 16-0. I just think it's too easy to fall into the classic fantasy trap here, wherein you put too much emphasis on what happened last year. Just remember that only four different QB's have ever thrown >40 TD passes (including Brady), and only one (Marino) ever did it more than once. Nobody ever did it twice in a row. It's just a very, very difficult thing to average 2.5 TD passes per game in the NFL.

 

[TheFanatic]

So, David, are you going to be projecting close to 400 completions and 4800 yards for Brady with decreased TDs?

I haven't done the math, but I would guess in the vicinity of 375-4500-35 (although I do think he could make it to 40 bt would not project that). I think NE will make another run at 500 points (which would still be 89 fewer points scored than last year).

NE won 18 games in a row. Until teams show a way to consistently stop them, why should they change what was working? I know they lost to NYG, but few teams have the defensive personnel to effectively replicate what the Giants did in the SB.

This is what keeps sticking in my head. I'm a big believer in regression towards the mean, but I just don't see the Patriots changing their game plan from what was wildly successful last year to running the ball more and only throwing 30 TD's. I can see Brady throwing more than 40 again this year. I also see that Belichek will react better to the tactics the Giants used to beat them in the SB (screen passes, and short slants). I see Welker doing pretty as he will get a lot of those short slants

How much did the Colts change their game plan from 2004 to 2005? How much did the 2007 Patriots change their game plan from the first half of 2007 to the second half?

The offense's game plan is only part of the issue. The defense gets paid too, and they make adjustments. Things change, even subtle things. I think 30 TD's is low too, but I'd be amazed if they reached 40 again. That's a very difficult number to reach, much less twice.

A big part of me agrees with this, but I just have the feeling that they are going to come out and run it up on everyone. I think they want the perfect season. They want to have teams intimidated when they come to town. I just think they are going to try to blow the doors off everyone and have a cake schedule to do so....I think weather had an impact on the second half last year. If they come out like gangbusters again this year I can see them going nuts again. The Patriots rode all that negative press last year to 589 points. With all the spygate stuff still going on, the practicing of IR's players, the commish saying he doesn't believe BB, and losing in the SB tells me they still have something to prove. Are you going to bet against them? I'm not.

I don't disagree with you. I think they're virtually guaranteed to be a 13-win team, and we may well see them make another late season run at 16-0. I just think it's too easy to fall into the classic fantasy trap here, wherein you put too much emphasis on what happened last year. Just remember that only four different QB's have ever thrown >40 TD passes (including Brady), and only one (Marino) ever did it more than once. Nobody ever did it twice in a row. It's just a very, very difficult thing to average 2.5 TD passes per game in the NFL.

This is also a different league. Two guys get 50 TD's in just a couple of years? Brady was always productive with a bunch of chumps at WR. Now he has Moss who elevated everyone around him by getting double and triple teamed. It took 18 games for someone to figure out how to stop the Pats last year. And a specific personnel package was required to do so. I'm not putting a ton of stock in this and chasing all the NE players I can. I acquired Welker a few weeks ago in one league (PPR). I have never owned Brady or Moss and may never. I just can't see them really falling off the map by dropping TD passes by 40%. Dropping 10 TD's drops them 20%. 20% is a big drop...

 

[David Yudkin]

Poor Wes (in that he is becoming an after thought here) . . .

For those that were paying attention last season, the Pats clealry were trying to get both Moss and Brady their individual records last year. I doubt there will be a push to do that again (and thus would lower their totals automatically).

IIRC, only Favre has been able to have back-to-back years of 35 TD. I think Brady can get 35 again. More than that is possible, but I wouldn't go way beyond that (which is why I said his limit was probably 40 early on).

Brady averaged only 2.0 TD passes over his final 9 games (post season included). That would be a pace of 32 over a full season. His average of 3.8 TD passes a game over his first 10 games last year was nuts.

 

[jurb26]

Poor Wes (in that he is becoming an after thought here) . . .For those that were paying attention last season, the Pats clealry were trying to get both Moss and Brady their individual records last year. I doubt there will be a push to do that again (and thus would lower their totals automatically).

Again, I throw this under the category of who cares. Nobody has said that Brady and Moss were not doing exactly that. The fact still remains that Moss had 17 TDs by week 13 and 16 TDs by week 11. This was long before they were aiming for the record.

 

[jurb26]

So, David, are you going to be projecting close to 400 completions and 4800 yards for Brady with decreased TDs?

I haven't done the math, but I would guess in the vicinity of 375-4500-35 (although I do think he could make it to 40 bt would not project that). I think NE will make another run at 500 points (which would still be 89 fewer points scored than last year).NE won 18 games in a row. Until teams show a way to consistently stop them, why should they change what was working? I know they lost to NYG, but few teams have the defensive personnel to effectively replicate what the Giants did in the SB.

Just an FYI, Moss scored 46% of NE's passing TDs last year. Based on your projections for the NE passing game, and given the assumption that Moss again scores 46% of the NE passing TDs (not a bad assumption if you ask me) that puts him at 16 TDs.

I see Moss getting a smaller % of the receiving TD as well. I would put him at 13 or 14 at the moment. So IMO, losing 10 TD is a pretty major chuck of his fantasy production.

Again, that is not the point. The point is that Moss can still loose those 10 TDs or so and in all reality be the #1 overall WR. I already stated in my early post I see Moss scoring in the 12-17 TD range. I feel 17 is a more probable result than 12 given he stays healthy. Regardless, he is in the running for the #1 WR anywhere in that range. Welker, not so much. Welker didn't break double digit TDs last year in what looks like a career year.

Fantasy wise, Moss could again be the #1 fantasy WR but still not be worth where he gets drafted value wise. Welker has some wiggle room, as he could fall to a point where he will be worth drafting. WE KNOW Moss is going to (most likely) go as the #1 WR. I play almost exclusively in PPR leagues, making Welker a valuable commodity. Will he be worth more than Moss in terms of total fantasy points? Of course not. But he could fall and still outproduce his draft position. I still think percentage wise Moss will lose a bigger percentage of production than Welker will.

Moss "should" have been the ~3rd overall player drafted in PPR leagues last year that start three WR's, and ~5th player overall in start-2 WR leagues using VBD. Even if he remains WR1, but his numbers drop to 85/1500/15, he won't justify being anywhere near that lofty VBD rank.

Where exactly have you seen Moss drafted anywhere near 5th overall?

Where did I say he should be? Reread my post.

I guess it just seemed like that is what you were saying by stating his VBD was 5th and that he "won't justify being anywhere near that lofty VBD rank." What exactly did you mean by it then?

 

[T Bell]

So, David, are you going to be projecting close to 400 completions and 4800 yards for Brady with decreased TDs?

I haven't done the math, but I would guess in the vicinity of 375-4500-35 (although I do think he could make it to 40 bt would not project that). I think NE will make another run at 500 points (which would still be 89 fewer points scored than last year).

NE won 18 games in a row. Until teams show a way to consistently stop them, why should they change what was working? I know they lost to NYG, but few teams have the defensive personnel to effectively replicate what the Giants did in the SB.

This is what keeps sticking in my head. I'm a big believer in regression towards the mean, but I just don't see the Patriots changing their game plan from what was wildly successful last year to running the ball more and only throwing 30 TD's. I can see Brady throwing more than 40 again this year. I also see that Belichek will react better to the tactics the Giants used to beat them in the SB (screen passes, and short slants). I see Welker doing pretty as he will get a lot of those short slants

How much did the Colts change their game plan from 2004 to 2005? How much did the 2007 Patriots change their game plan from the first half of 2007 to the second half?

The offense's game plan is only part of the issue. The defense gets paid too, and they make adjustments. Things change, even subtle things. I think 30 TD's is low too, but I'd be amazed if they reached 40 again. That's a very difficult number to reach, much less twice.

A big part of me agrees with this, but I just have the feeling that they are going to come out and run it up on everyone. I think they want the perfect season. They want to have teams intimidated when they come to town. I just think they are going to try to blow the doors off everyone and have a cake schedule to do so....I think weather had an impact on the second half last year. If they come out like gangbusters again this year I can see them going nuts again. The Patriots rode all that negative press last year to 589 points. With all the spygate stuff still going on, the practicing of IR's players, the commish saying he doesn't believe BB, and losing in the SB tells me they still have something to prove. Are you going to bet against them? I'm not.

I don't disagree with you. I think they're virtually guaranteed to be a 13-win team, and we may well see them make another late season run at 16-0. I just think it's too easy to fall into the classic fantasy trap here, wherein you put too much emphasis on what happened last year. Just remember that only four different QB's have ever thrown >40 TD passes (including Brady), and only one (Marino) ever did it more than once. Nobody ever did it twice in a row. It's just a very, very difficult thing to average 2.5 TD passes per game in the NFL.

This is also a different league. Two guys get 50 TD's in just a couple of years? Brady was always productive with a bunch of chumps at WR. Now he has Moss who elevated everyone around him by getting double and triple teamed. It took 18 games for someone to figure out how to stop the Pats last year. And a specific personnel package was required to do so. I'm not putting a ton of stock in this and chasing all the NE players I can. I acquired Welker a few weeks ago in one league (PPR). I have never owned Brady or Moss and may never. I just can't see them really falling off the map by dropping TD passes by 40%. Dropping 10 TD's drops them 20%. 20% is a big drop...

Manning's TD passes dropped 40% from 2004 to 2005; Warner's TD passes dropped 25% from 1999-2000 (on a per-game basis, he was injured and missed 5 games);

Marino's TD passes dropped 37.5% from 1984 to 1985, and 20% from 1986 to 1987 (on a per-game basis, he missed 4 games in 1987);

That covers all the guys with 40 TD passes in a season.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

So, David, are you going to be projecting close to 400 completions and 4800 yards for Brady with decreased TDs?

I haven't done the math, but I would guess in the vicinity of 375-4500-35 (although I do think he could make it to 40 bt would not project that). I think NE will make another run at 500 points (which would still be 89 fewer points scored than last year).

NE won 18 games in a row. Until teams show a way to consistently stop them, why should they change what was working? I know they lost to NYG, but few teams have the defensive personnel to effectively replicate what the Giants did in the SB.

This is what keeps sticking in my head. I'm a big believer in regression towards the mean, but I just don't see the Patriots changing their game plan from what was wildly successful last year to running the ball more and only throwing 30 TD's. I can see Brady throwing more than 40 again this year. I also see that Belichek will react better to the tactics the Giants used to beat them in the SB (screen passes, and short slants). I see Welker doing pretty as he will get a lot of those short slants

How much did the Colts change their game plan from 2004 to 2005? How much did the 2007 Patriots change their game plan from the first half of 2007 to the second half?

The offense's game plan is only part of the issue. The defense gets paid too, and they make adjustments. Things change, even subtle things. I think 30 TD's is low too, but I'd be amazed if they reached 40 again. That's a very difficult number to reach, much less twice.

A big part of me agrees with this, but I just have the feeling that they are going to come out and run it up on everyone. I think they want the perfect season. They want to have teams intimidated when they come to town. I just think they are going to try to blow the doors off everyone and have a cake schedule to do so....I think weather had an impact on the second half last year. If they come out like gangbusters again this year I can see them going nuts again. The Patriots rode all that negative press last year to 589 points. With all the spygate stuff still going on, the practicing of IR's players, the commish saying he doesn't believe BB, and losing in the SB tells me they still have something to prove. Are you going to bet against them? I'm not.

I don't disagree with you. I think they're virtually guaranteed to be a 13-win team, and we may well see them make another late season run at 16-0. I just think it's too easy to fall into the classic fantasy trap here, wherein you put too much emphasis on what happened last year. Just remember that only four different QB's have ever thrown >40 TD passes (including Brady), and only one (Marino) ever did it more than once. Nobody ever did it twice in a row. It's just a very, very difficult thing to average 2.5 TD passes per game in the NFL.

This is also a different league. Two guys get 50 TD's in just a couple of years? Brady was always productive with a bunch of chumps at WR. Now he has Moss who elevated everyone around him by getting double and triple teamed. It took 18 games for someone to figure out how to stop the Pats last year. And a specific personnel package was required to do so. I'm not putting a ton of stock in this and chasing all the NE players I can. I acquired Welker a few weeks ago in one league (PPR). I have never owned Brady or Moss and may never. I just can't see them really falling off the map by dropping TD passes by 40%. Dropping 10 TD's drops them 20%. 20% is a big drop...

Manning's TD passes dropped 40% from 2004 to 2005; Warner's TD passes dropped 25% from 1999-2000 (on a per-game basis, he was injured and missed 5 games);

Marino's TD passes dropped 37.5% from 1984 to 1985, and 20% from 1986 to 1987 (on a per-game basis, he missed 4 games in 1987);

That covers all the guys with 40 TD passes in a season.

Good info here. I'd be stunned if the drop was only 20%. Low to mid 30s is very reasonable for Brady, IMO -- and 28 is as likely as 40.

 

[Boston]

Whether I agree or disagree I can understand the thought process behind thinking the Patriot offense as a whole will not put up numbers like they did in 2007. Where I think many are really missing the boat is in the thinking that Welker is just some average WR who benefited from playing on a high-powered offense. The guy has glue for hands, is very quick, runs precise routes, is absolutely fearless and has the faith of both his QB and HC. While I'm sure many regard him as somewhat of a novelty due to his size and demographic he is anything but that. This kid is the real deal and is going to be one of the major focal points of the Patriot offense for at least the next five years. One of BB's strengths as a coach is finding mismatches and areas to exploit and right now Welker is a matchip nightmare to defenses. I really see him as the safest player in their passing game to repeat his stats from last year.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Where I think many are really missing the boat is in the thinking that Welker is just some average WR who benefited from playing on a high-powered offense. The guy has glue for hands, is very quick, runs precise routes, is absolutely fearless and has the faith of both his QB and HC. While I'm sure many regard him as somewhat of a novelty due to his size and demographic he is anything but that. This kid is the real deal and is going to be one of the major focal points of the Patriot offense for at least the next five years. One of BB's strengths as a coach is finding mismatches and areas to exploit and right now Welker is a matchip nightmare to defenses. I really see him as the safest player on the whole offense to repeat his stats from last year.

I agree that he is a good to very good NFL player. He happens to be playing alongside one of the best ever, though. When the stats regress, more of that regression will be passed along to Welker, IMO. We'll just have to disagree on this, I think.

 

[Boston]

Where I think many are really missing the boat is in the thinking that Welker is just some average WR who benefited from playing on a high-powered offense. The guy has glue for hands, is very quick, runs precise routes, is absolutely fearless and has the faith of both his QB and HC. While I'm sure many regard him as somewhat of a novelty due to his size and demographic he is anything but that. This kid is the real deal and is going to be one of the major focal points of the Patriot offense for at least the next five years. One of BB's strengths as a coach is finding mismatches and areas to exploit and right now Welker is a matchip nightmare to defenses. I really see him as the safest player on the whole offense to repeat his stats from last year.

I agree that he is a good to very good NFL player. He happens to be playing alongside one of the best ever, though. When the stats regress, more of that regression will be passed along to Welker, IMO. We'll just have to disagree on this, I think.

We will have to disagree...I just don't see Welker's stats being part of a math equation. IMO his role in the Patriots offense is the safest (outside of Brady) and I don't see much fluctuation from year to year as long as #12 is healthy.

 

[T Bell]

Where I think many are really missing the boat is in the thinking that Welker is just some average WR who benefited from playing on a high-powered offense. The guy has glue for hands, is very quick, runs precise routes, is absolutely fearless and has the faith of both his QB and HC. While I'm sure many regard him as somewhat of a novelty due to his size and demographic he is anything but that. This kid is the real deal and is going to be one of the major focal points of the Patriot offense for at least the next five years. One of BB's strengths as a coach is finding mismatches and areas to exploit and right now Welker is a matchip nightmare to defenses. I really see him as the safest player on the whole offense to repeat his stats from last year.

I agree that he is a good to very good NFL player. He happens to be playing alongside one of the best ever, though. When the stats regress, more of that regression will be passed along to Welker, IMO. We'll just have to disagree on this, I think.

We will have to disagree...I just don't see Welker's stats being part of a math equation. IMO his role in the Patriots offense is the safest (outside of Brady) and I don't see much fluctuation from year to year as long as #12 is healthy.

Welker's role is virtually part of the running game, given how involved he is in moving the chains. To be clear, the exercise above I was doing about drop-offs in production by 40+ TD QB's has to do with what I believe Moss's drop-off will be, not Welker's.

 

[Yitbos69]

NE will show some regression to the mean this year. They will still be one of the top offenses in the NFL, but numbers are going to drop across the board, and I think that Welker's numbers are going to be among the hardest hit (Welker is a very good NFL player, but Randy Moss is a HOF player still in his prime).75 catches for 780 yards and 5 TDs.

Welker hit his ceiling in 2007........75/780/5 will be a good year for him

 

[gianmarco]

The thing that bothers me about Welker is his huge # of catches last year (112) and his relatively low # of yds (1175).

Only Houshmandzadeh has had that many catches and <1200 yds (he only had 1143 as well).

When you look at guys that have had 110+ receptions, they almost all have pretty large yardage totals as well. In fact, only 2 guys had less than 1300 yds. Shannon Sharpe when he had 112/1274/11 and Cris Carter when he had 122/1256/7.

This is the one thing that concerns me about Welker. If he maintains a similar ypc (which he had 10.5 ypc in 2007 and only 10.3 ypc in 2006), then he's going to need >100 catches again just to crack 1000 yds. There's no doubt he has some good value in PPR leagues, but his YPC is a concern for me as are his TD totals (only 8) in a record-breaking season where Brady threw 50.

 

[coolnerd]

Where I think many are really missing the boat is in the thinking that Welker is just some average WR who benefited from playing on a high-powered offense. The guy has glue for hands, is very quick, runs precise routes, is absolutely fearless and has the faith of both his QB and HC. While I'm sure many regard him as somewhat of a novelty due to his size and demographic he is anything but that. This kid is the real deal and is going to be one of the major focal points of the Patriot offense for at least the next five years. One of BB's strengths as a coach is finding mismatches and areas to exploit and right now Welker is a matchip nightmare to defenses. I really see him as the safest player on the whole offense to repeat his stats from last year.

I agree that he is a good to very good NFL player. He happens to be playing alongside one of the best ever, though. When the stats regress, more of that regression will be passed along to Welker, IMO. We'll just have to disagree on this, I think.

We will have to disagree...I just don't see Welker's stats being part of a math equation. IMO his role in the Patriots offense is the safest (outside of Brady) and I don't see much fluctuation from year to year as long as #12 is healthy.

Welker's role is virtually part of the running game, given how involved he is in moving the chains. To be clear, the exercise above I was doing about drop-offs in production by 40+ TD QB's has to do with what I believe Moss's drop-off will be, not Welker's.

So anyone who thinks the running game with be used more/better then should temper expectations based on that.

 

[Boston]

The thing that bothers me about Welker is his huge # of catches last year (112) and his relatively low # of yds (1175).

Only Houshmandzadeh has had that many catches and <1200 yds (he only had 1143 as well).

When you look at guys that have had 110+ receptions, they almost all have pretty large yardage totals as well. In fact, only 2 guys had less than 1300 yds. Shannon Sharpe when he had 112/1274/11 and Cris Carter when he had 122/1256/7.

This is the one thing that concerns me about Welker. If he maintains a similar ypc (which he had 10.5 ypc in 2007 and only 10.3 ypc in 2006), then he's going to need >100 catches again just to crack 1000 yds. There's no doubt he has some good value in PPR leagues, but his YPC is a concern for me as are his TD totals (only 8) in a record-breaking season where Brady threw 50.

I don't think there's really a past player that you can compare to Welker (possibly Stokley in his one big year with the Colts but Welker is much more important to the Pats than Stokley was to Indy...and Stokley was more of a threat to go the distance while Welker's more of a chain-mover)). He's a different type of player who's playing in an era where the pass is being used far differently than before. If you are in a non-PPR league I fully agree that you should temper your expectations. I don't see his yardage ever being anything too special because that's not how the Pats utilize him and isn't playing to his strengths. Yet, if you are in a PPR league than I think he's a high quality WR because I just don't see his receptions and TDs varying too much for the next four-five years. He has a rock solid role in this offense that will produce consistent numbers on a yearly basis...and until I see it accomplished I don't see defenses really having an answer for him (definetly not on a weekly basis).

 

[gianmarco]

The thing that bothers me about Welker is his huge # of catches last year (112) and his relatively low # of yds (1175).

Only Houshmandzadeh has had that many catches and <1200 yds (he only had 1143 as well).

When you look at guys that have had 110+ receptions, they almost all have pretty large yardage totals as well. In fact, only 2 guys had less than 1300 yds. Shannon Sharpe when he had 112/1274/11 and Cris Carter when he had 122/1256/7.

This is the one thing that concerns me about Welker. If he maintains a similar ypc (which he had 10.5 ypc in 2007 and only 10.3 ypc in 2006), then he's going to need >100 catches again just to crack 1000 yds. There's no doubt he has some good value in PPR leagues, but his YPC is a concern for me as are his TD totals (only 8) in a record-breaking season where Brady threw 50.

I don't think there's really a past player that you can compare to Welker (possibly Stokley in his one big year with the Colts but Welker is much more important to the Pats than Stokley was to Indy...and Stokley was more of a threat to go the distance while Welker's more of a chain-mover)). He's a different type of player who's playing in an era where the pass is being used far differently than before. If you are in a non-PPR league I fully agree that you should temper your expectations. I don't see his yardage ever being anything too special because that's not how the Pats utilize him and isn't playing to his strengths. Yet, if you are in a PPR league than I think he's a high quality WR because I just don't see his receptions and TDs varying too much for the next four-five years. He has a rock solid role in this offense that will produce consistent numbers on a yearly basis...and until I see it accomplished I don't see defenses really having an answer for him (definetly not on a weekly basis).

His value definitely resides in PPR leagues, I think.

 

[Moe Green]

I believe he's being undervalued by FBGs and a lot of other outfits. He's going to be $$$ again in PPR leagues.

 

[T Bell]

The thing that bothers me about Welker is his huge # of catches last year (112) and his relatively low # of yds (1175).

Only Houshmandzadeh has had that many catches and <1200 yds (he only had 1143 as well).

When you look at guys that have had 110+ receptions, they almost all have pretty large yardage totals as well. In fact, only 2 guys had less than 1300 yds. Shannon Sharpe when he had 112/1274/11 and Cris Carter when he had 122/1256/7.

This is the one thing that concerns me about Welker. If he maintains a similar ypc (which he had 10.5 ypc in 2007 and only 10.3 ypc in 2006), then he's going to need >100 catches again just to crack 1000 yds. There's no doubt he has some good value in PPR leagues, but his YPC is a concern for me as are his TD totals (only 8) in a record-breaking season where Brady threw 50.

I don't think there's really a past player that you can compare to Welker (possibly Stokley in his one big year with the Colts but Welker is much more important to the Pats than Stokley was to Indy...and Stokley was more of a threat to go the distance while Welker's more of a chain-mover)). He's a different type of player who's playing in an era where the pass is being used far differently than before. If you are in a non-PPR league I fully agree that you should temper your expectations. I don't see his yardage ever being anything too special because that's not how the Pats utilize him and isn't playing to his strengths. Yet, if you are in a PPR league than I think he's a high quality WR because I just don't see his receptions and TDs varying too much for the next four-five years. He has a rock solid role in this offense that will produce consistent numbers on a yearly basis...and until I see it accomplished I don't see defenses really having an answer for him (definetly not on a weekly basis).

His value definitely resides in PPR leagues, I think.

That's certainly where his value peaks, but even in non-PPR leagues he's a hugely valuable WR3 because of his consistency. You know you're going to get 5-60-0 in any given week where he's covering a bye or injury, and the fact that he could end up with 9-110-1 is huge.

 

[Moe Green]

Whether I agree or disagree I can understand the thought process behind thinking the Patriot offense as a whole will not put up numbers like they did in 2007. Where I think many are really missing the boat is in the thinking that Welker is just some average WR who benefited from playing on a high-powered offense. The guy has glue for hands, is very quick, runs precise routes, is absolutely fearless and has the faith of both his QB and HC. While I'm sure many regard him as somewhat of a novelty due to his size and demographic he is anything but that. This kid is the real deal and is going to be one of the major focal points of the Patriot offense for at least the next five years. One of BB's strengths as a coach is finding mismatches and areas to exploit and right now Welker is a matchip nightmare to defenses. I really see him as the safest player in their passing game to repeat his stats from last year.

I totally agree.

 

[David Yudkin]

For those indicating that there will be some renewed interest in the Pats running the ball, they really did not run the ball substantially less than in prior seasons last year. Here were the numbers from recent seasons.

2007: 451-1849-17-4.1

2006: 499-1969-20-3.9

2005: 439-1512-16-3.4

2004: 524-2134-15-4.1

2003: 473-1607-9-3.4

2002: 395-1508-9-3.8

2001: 473-1793-15-3.8

Other than the year Dillon had in 2004, their totals last year were in line with other seasons.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

If I gave out the "Most Surprised Award", for me it would go to Wes Welker. I was just surprised at how good of a football player this guy turned out to be......EVERY WEEK! Even if it didn't show up in the stats, the guy was out there making football plays. I have yet to own him in any league, but I'm a Wes Welker fan. Let's do it again Wes!

102 receptions for 1080 and 8TD's.

 

[David Yudkin]

Since I got assigned to do the Welker PS, I tried putting together a projection for the Pats passing game for this year. See if this passes the sniff test . . .

Moss 85-1375-13

Welker 90-1000-7

Jackson 45-610-5

Gaffney 30-360-3

Washington 5-60-0

Watson 40-420-5

Pollard 10-100-0

Thomas 10-75-0

Maroney 20-160-1

Morris 15-80-0

Faulk 40-320-1

Evans 5-40-0

Total: 395-4600-35

The reception total looks high to me, but I can live with the yardage and TD totals. Not sure who to knock down reception wise though . . .

 

[gianmarco]

Since I got assigned to do the Welker PS, I tried putting together a projection for the Pats passing game for this year. See if this passes the sniff test . . .Moss 85-1375-13Welker 90-1000-7Jackson 45-610-5Gaffney 30-360-3Washington 5-60-0Watson 40-420-5Pollard 10-100-0Thomas 10-75-0Maroney 20-160-1Morris 15-80-0Faulk 40-320-1Evans 5-40-0Total: 395-4600-35The reception total looks high to me, but I can live with the yardage and TD totals. Not sure who to knock down reception wise though . . .

I think if Chad Jackson is playing that significant of a role, Gaffney sees a little less. I also think Pollard, even at 10, is too much.

 

[David Yudkin]

Since I got assigned to do the Welker PS, I tried putting together a projection for the Pats passing game for this year. See if this passes the sniff test . . .Moss 85-1375-13Welker 90-1000-7Jackson 45-610-5Gaffney 30-360-3Washington 5-60-0Watson 40-420-5Pollard 10-100-0Thomas 10-75-0Maroney 20-160-1Morris 15-80-0Faulk 40-320-1Evans 5-40-0Total: 395-4600-35The reception total looks high to me, but I can live with the yardage and TD totals. Not sure who to knock down reception wise though . . .

I think if Chad Jackson is playing that significant of a role, Gaffney sees a little less. I also think Pollard, even at 10, is too much.

Stallworth and Gaffney combined had 82-1146-8 last season. I have Jackson and Gaffney down for 75-970-8. Maybe that's still too high . . .The only reason I have Pollard at 10 is I don't have faith that Watson plays 16 games and may not be healthy when he does play. Not sure if Pollard or Thomas would see more receptions then.

 

[T Bell]

Belated bump to head off repetitive Welker thread.

 

[-baller]

For those indicating that there will be some renewed interest in the Pats running the ball, they really did not run the ball substantially less than in prior seasons last year. Here were the numbers from recent seasons.2007: 451-1849-17-4.12006: 499-1969-20-3.92005: 439-1512-16-3.42004: 524-2134-15-4.12003: 473-1607-9-3.42002: 395-1508-9-3.82001: 473-1793-15-3.8Other than the year Dillon had in 2004, their totals last year were in line with other seasons.

what about as a % of plays run, though?I have no idea, but it wouldn't surprise me if they ran more total plays in '07 than previous.also, I think they had similar rb injury issues in one of those years -- maybe '05?edit: another alsoI wouldn't imagine they had as many games in hand in those previous years, not to mention irrelevant games, which would normally lead to more running late in games.

 

[David Yudkin]

For those indicating that there will be some renewed interest in the Pats running the ball, they really did not run the ball substantially less than in prior seasons last year. Here were the numbers from recent seasons.2007: 451-1849-17-4.12006: 499-1969-20-3.92005: 439-1512-16-3.42004: 524-2134-15-4.12003: 473-1607-9-3.42002: 395-1508-9-3.82001: 473-1793-15-3.8Other than the year Dillon had in 2004, their totals last year were in line with other seasons.

what about as a % of plays run, though?I have no idea, but it wouldn't surprise me if they ran more total plays in '07 than previous.also, I think they had similar rb injury issues in one of those years -- maybe '05?edit: another alsoI wouldn't imagine they had as many games in hand in those previous years, not to mention irrelevant games, which would normally lead to more running late in games.

If you read the actual player spotlight on Welker, I am pretty sure I covered the numbers and percetage break downs.

 

[Bl Deep]

Anyone worrying about Gaffney and Jackson just don't 'get it'

Welker is a great WR... those who couldn't figure it out when he caught 71 balls for Miami were probably too concerned knob slobbing the Tyrone Calicos and Vincent Jacksons of the league...

They Moss/Welker is a rich mans version of Wayne Harrison....

I think Welker catches 120 balls this year, I think Moss is more likely to hit ~80-85 catches....

While all the pundits and naysayers quote 'mean regression' and whatnot.... Name a team that set the world on fire in their FIRST season together??????????????????

These guys have an offseason and a year of experience together, and I think it is entirely possible that they reproduce last years stats or improve on them... ( rec/yardage wise....TDs are a finicky thing),,,,

Welker will produce as a #1 ppr WR, however given the fact you have to swallow low TD outputs 6-9 TDs prob.. people psychologically want him as a WR#2...

 

[T Bell]

While all the pundits and naysayers quote 'mean regression' and whatnot.... Name a team that set the world on fire in their FIRST season together??????????????????

1999 Rams. 1998 Vikings. What do I win?

 

[-baller]

Anyone worrying about Gaffney and Jackson just don't 'get it' Welker is a great WR... those who couldn't figure it out when he caught 71 balls for Miami were probably too concerned knob slobbing the Tyrone Calicos and Vincent Jacksons of the league...They Moss/Welker is a rich mans version of Wayne Harrison.... I think Welker catches 120 balls this year, I think Moss is more likely to hit ~80-85 catches.... While all the pundits and naysayers quote 'mean regression' and whatnot.... Name a team that set the world on fire in their FIRST season together??????????????????These guys have an offseason and a year of experience together, and I think it is entirely possible that they reproduce last years stats or improve on them... ( rec/yardage wise....TDs are a finicky thing),,,, Welker will produce as a #1 ppr WR, however given the fact you have to swallow low TD outputs 6-9 TDs prob.. people psychologically want him as a WR#2...

I pretty much 100% agree, especially about that last line, w/the only nitpick being I think maybe you see about 50 plays swing from pass to run this year, unless you end up w/more significant rb health issues.about the only thing that surprised me about welker last year was the td total, which was higher than I would have thought.

 

[-baller]

While all the pundits and naysayers quote 'mean regression' and whatnot.... Name a team that set the world on fire in their FIRST season together??????????????????

1999 Rams. 1998 Vikings. What do I win?

and how did the offenses of those 2 teams look the next year?

 

[T Bell]

While all the pundits and naysayers quote 'mean regression' and whatnot.... Name a team that set the world on fire in their FIRST season together??????????????????

1999 Rams. 1998 Vikings. What do I win?

and how did the offenses of those 2 teams look the next year?

Still strong, but not quite as good as they did in those years.Read my prior posts in this thread to see my full views. I'm not interested in repeating what I took so long to write the last time.