Player Spotlight: Willie Parker (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Willie Parker, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers

Player Page Link: Willie Parker Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Two Deep]

275 Att -1300 yards 8 Tds

22 rec. 180 yds 2 Tds

 

[saintfool]

275 Att -1300 yards 8 Tds 22 rec. 180 yds 2 Tds

you are of the opinion that mendenhall helps parker get better numbers, despite having a more prominent role than davenport last year?

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Alot of folks are down on Willie Parker:

1) Broke his leg toward the end of 2007.

2) TD's went WAY down...16 to 2

3) The drafting of Rashard Mendenhall

All of these factors have Willie Parker sliding down draft lists. Whereas this time last year, Parker was a consensus 1st rounder - now, he seems firmly entrenched in RB2 status. However, I want to draw on a couple of things relating to Parker and Pittsburgh overall.

1) Pittsburgh scored 43 offensive TD's last season. 34 of them (79%) were passing TD's. The Steelers rushed for 9 all year. Will that ratio hold again?

2) From a YFS perspective, Parker experienced a minimal decline in production (2007 - 105.7 YFS/game; 2006 - 107.3 YFS/game)

3) While I really like Mendenhall's prospects to be a very good pro RB, his lack of 'college history' is a double edged sword. On the plus, side his 388 career carries (and only 126 in his first 2 seasons) kept the milage down, on the flip side, learning pass protection schemes and blocking assignments and recognizing those situations could take awhile. Physically, Mendenhall will be fine in this area, but I could see DC's targeting him with stunts and blitz disguises. For a team that requires as much help in this area as Big Ben and the Steelers need, a deficiency in this area could hurt your ability to be on the field. That's why I see Mendenhall being a strict situational player in 2008.

I do think the Steelers recognize that Willie Parker is not as effective a player when touching the ball 25 times/game versus say 20. But Parker has been a key ingredient in keeping the Steelers ground game in the upper echelon. With that said, losing Alan Faneca is very big will probably be felt production wise by all Steelers backs.

However, I feel that Willie still has one year at least left in Pittsburgh in the unquestioned RB1 role. One thing Willie has also shown in his career is the ability to 'get hot'. I'll be conservative with my projections, but I think Willie bounces back pretty strong.

Prediction: 266 carries 1165 Rushing Yards 4.4 YPC, 8 TD's; 26 receptions 185 Receiving Yards.

 

[T Bell]

His lack of TD's killed me last year, and now that they've drafted Mendenhall, I can't be optimistic about him. No way he's drafted as the RB5 like a lot of people did last year . . . including me.

275/1150/6

28/195/1

 

[Two Deep]

275 Att -1300 yards 8 Tds 22 rec. 180 yds 2 Tds

you are of the opinion that mendenhall helps parker get better numbers, despite having a more prominent role than davenport last year?

Yes I'm of the opinion that Mendenhall is unproven and will not effect Willies numbers as much as some think.. In fact Mewelde Moore worries me more than Mendenhall. How soon we forget Willie rushed for nearly 1,500 yards and scored 13 rushing tds in 2006.

 

[T Bell]

275 Att -1300 yards 8 Tds 22 rec. 180 yds 2 Tds

you are of the opinion that mendenhall helps parker get better numbers, despite having a more prominent role than davenport last year?

Yes I'm of the opinion that Mendenhall is unproven and will not effect Willies numbers as much as some think.. In fact Mewelde Moore worries me more than Mendenhall. How soon we forget Willie rushed for nearly 1,500 yards and scored 13 rushing tds in 2006.

Doesn't the fact that that happened under a different coaching regime weigh more heavily than how otherwise recently it occurred? FWP got next to zero red zone chances last year. That was a huge difference in his FF output.

 

[5-ish Finkle]

I think the beliefs of many about Parker's total demise are premature. This is an offense that is still going to run enough to support solid RB1 numbers. The rub is that now those touches appear that they are going to be broke up between a few guys. Health permitting, I still see Parker as the team leader in RB touches......this year.

He's unlikely to be a top ten back splitting time with Mendenhall, but I can't see him falling outside the top 20.

260 carries, 1092 yards, 6 TDs

25 catches 200 yards 1 TD

 

[valhallan]

I don't normally do projections, but I have to balance out the masses a bit here. As pointed out in other threads, first round picks always get a decent chunk of carries. I'd put Willie at:

225/968/5

18/130/1

 

[saintfool]

I think the beliefs of many about Parker's total demise are premature. This is an offense that is still going to run enough to support solid RB1 numbers. The rub is that now those touches appear that they are going to be broke up between a few guys. Health permitting, I still see Parker as the team leader in RB touches......this year. He's unlikely to be a top ten back splitting time with Mendenhall, but I can't see him falling outside the top 20.260 carries, 1092 yards, 6 TDs25 catches 200 yards 1 TD

This is more along the lines of what I was thinking. He's going to get most of the attempts, of course, but he's got Mendenhall breathing down his neck. Mendenhall is an obvious upgrade over Davenport and enjoys the favor of the Timlin coaching staff right now.270 attempts, 1107 yards and 4 tds. 20 receptions, 240 yards and 2 tds.

 

[TheFanatic]

I gotta say, the drafting of Mendenhall speaks volumes to me here. The new regime is not happy with FWP.

850/4 TD's

180/0 TD's

 

[Chairshot]

It's hard to look at Willie Parker's history and vote against him. But I think there are some signs that show it's very possible he doesn't have the "bounce back" type season many are predicting for him.

First, his YPC have declined each of the past 2 seasons (from 4.7 to 4.4 to 4.1). Not much has been made of this fact because, despite the decline, he still had 1300 rushing and his YPC still stayed above 4.0. But the trend, to me, isn't a good sign.

Second, the Steelers lost Alan Faneca, who might be the best guard in the league. That's not a good thing for any RB (or QB for that matter). Losing him significantly downgrades the Steeler's offensive line. No matter how you cut it, the O line is worse this year then it was last year.

Third, he is coming off back to back 300+ carry seasons. I'm not a big believer in the idea that RBs wear down over year to year, but I can buy that a player gets worn down over the course of a season. Willie isn't a big guy and he didn't have all that many carries in college, so I could easily see the Steelers just wanting to reduce his workload, especially coming off the injury (I don't personally believe that he got hurt last year due to wearing down, but this type of thinking is very common). They wanted to do it last year and just didn't have the personal to accomplish that goal. The NFL is a 2 back league now and the Steelers now have 2 backs.

Which brings me to the fourth sign: players taken in the first round play football their first year. This is almost always the case.

Last year, for example, there were only 5 first rounders that didn't play at least 13 games. Two were QBs that sat by design (JaMarcus Russell and Brady Quinn). The other three either were coming off serious injury or suffered serious injuries (Robert Mechem, Jarvis Moss and Justin Harrell).

In 2006 it was the same story: 2 QBs sat by design (Jay Cutler and Matt Leinart) and 3 missed time due to injury (Vernon Davis, Chad Greenway and John McCargo). Otherwise, all other rookies played in almost all the games.

I could go back further, but the point is that 1st round draft picks almost always play, unless they get hurt or are QBs. So, it's reasonable to believe that Willie Parker is going to get his carries cut because the Steelers are going to give Rashard Mendenhall significant playing time. It's entirely possible that Parker will only be a 2 down back with Mewelde Moore and his pass catching skills in the mix. It's also entirely possible that Parker's red zone looks decline, as well, due to Mendenhall's presence.

My overall feeling is that it wouldn't be unreasonable for Mendenhall to get about 150 carries (and that might be conservative considering rookie 1st round RBs almost always significantly surpass 150 carries). The other RBs will get about 40-50 total. Parker still gets the bulk of the carries, but the idea that Mendenhall won't get significant carries doesn't make sense to me and it doesn't fit with recent NFL history (as an aside, the "Rookies Play" rule should be applied to the Marion Barber/Felix Jones situation, as well).

My projection: 250 carries, 1100 rushing yards, 4 rushing TDs, 25 receptions, 150 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD, about 150-160 FP in standard leagues

 

[The Man with the Plan]

I don't normally do projections, but I have to balance out the masses a bit here. As pointed out in other threads, first round picks always get a decent chunk of carries. I'd put Willie at:

225/968/5

18/130/1

What do Deuce McAllister, Shaun Alexander, Willis McGahee, and Larry Johnson all have in common? If you can answer that question you will see that Rashard Mendenhall is not much of a threat to Willie Parker's numbers.Willie Parker is a very good player rushing for over 1200 yards in 3 straight seasons and over 1300 yards in 2 straight seasons. If people want to let make a player like him available as a rb2 while he puts up rb1 numbers that's alright with me.

 

[valhallan]

I don't normally do projections, but I have to balance out the masses a bit here. As pointed out in other threads, first round picks always get a decent chunk of carries. I'd put Willie at:

225/968/5

18/130/1

What do Deuce McAllister, Shaun Alexander, Willis McGahee, and Larry Johnson all have in common? If you can answer that question you will see that Rashard Mendenhall is not much of a threat to Willie Parker's numbers.Willie Parker is a very good player rushing for over 1200 yards in 3 straight seasons and over 1300 yards in 2 straight seasons. If people want to let make a player like him available as a rb2 while he puts up rb1 numbers that's alright with me.

This is funny. I used to be one of the only people trumpeting Parker on this board, now I have to defend a "low" projection for him.OK, I should have said almost always. You named 4 running backs (eventual Pro Bowlers, I might add) that didn't tote the rock much in their first season but why does that automatically mean Mendenhall won't? I can name about 20 first-round backs in the past 10 years who had well over 100 carries in their rookie campaigns. What to you indicates he's more likely to see only 16 carries like Deuce or 64 like Alexander, rather than the 100+ that an overwhelming majority of first-round backs have received?

Parker and Davenport combined for 428 carries last year and Najeh is gone. I think it's safe to project Mendenhall for at least 100 carries given Pittsburgh's typical run/pass ratio. At that point it becomes a question of how effective will he be with those 100+ carries? Effective enough to eat into Willie's production? I think so. The Steelers ran to the podium to select him. Thus, I've moved Parker down to 225 carries.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

I don't normally do projections, but I have to balance out the masses a bit here. As pointed out in other threads, first round picks always get a decent chunk of carries. I'd put Willie at:

225/968/5

18/130/1

I wanted to address this notion because while there is some truth to it, it's not a cut and dry as you might think and if trends hold true, it actually favors Parker to be the integral piece of the offense for one more year in Pittsburgh.What I looked at were the following numbers since 2002.

1) How many RB's were drafted in the first round from 2002-2007 (15)

2) Who was drafted in the top half of the first round (7)

3) Who was drafted in the bottom half (8)

Here was their average production in each category:

1st rounders: 169 Carries, 729 Rushing Yards, 4.3 YPC, 4.6 TD's

Top 1st Rounders: 211 Carries, 895 Rushing Yards, 4.2 YPC, 5.9 TD's

Bottom 1st Rounders: 131 Carries, 583 Rushing Yards, 4.5 YPC, 3.5 TD's

Now I'm simply hypothesizing here, but if I'm stating why you see the gulf in production between RB's in the top half of the first round versus bottom, it comes down to the fact that teams drafting in the bottom of the round are better teams and by in large more stable organizations as it relates to their personnel on the field. The ones in the top half are looking to plug guys in immediately. When you dig down into the numbers a bit more for the bottom half of the round, you see that the top 2 producers in this category were:

Kevin Jones - who the Lions desperately needed to plug in immediately. He was their second 1st round pick that year

Joseph Addai - who was drafted with the specific purpose to replace a departed Edgerrin James.

As such, I see the Steelers with enough stability at the RB position in Parker to not want to make such a dramatic shift in personnel, especially coming off having lost their best O-Lineman in Alan Faneca to FA.

According to rotoworld.com, Parker signed a 4 year deal prior to the 2006 season, as such, the 2008 season represents his 3rd year in the deal. It's entirely possible that this could be Parker's last year in Pittsburgh while they groom Mendenhall in more of an apprentice role - much like the Rams and Chiefs did with Stephen Jackson and Larry Johnson respectively.

 

[valhallan]

What about Maroney? Playing off your analysis, I'd say Mendenhall's situation is closer to Maroney's than any other recent late first-round back given it's a stable organization and there's an established starter who had a decline in production the previous season.

The 2006 split for the Pats was:

Dillon 199/812/13

Maroney 175/745/6

I don't think it's wise to draw significant conclusions from an isolated example, but it's the closest we have to a comparable situation.

It seems most here are hovering around 275 for Willie. I see it more like 225, with 150 for Mendenhall and 50 for Moore. If that's outlandish, so be it.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I think he's in a full on RBBC - with Mendenhall and Russell poaching carries and TDs, and Moore poaching catches.

200 carries 800 yards; 15 catches, 110 yards; 4 total TDs

And if Russell shows this year Parker's not a Steeler in 2009.

 

[Two Deep]

I gotta say, the drafting of Mendenhall speaks volumes to me here. The new regime is not happy with FWP. 850/4 TD's180/0 TD's

Apparently you don't believe in grooming a back for use down the road. Too say the Steelers are not happy with their Willie is pure speculation. Mendenhall is their futrure Willie is now.

 

[treat88]

Apparently you don't believe in grooming a back for use down the road. Too say the Steelers are not happy with their Willie is pure speculation. Mendenhall is their futrure Willie is now.

Agreed.Parker may be on a different team in 2009*, but the PS are going to get everything they can out of him before he leaves town.I wouldn't be surprised if Mendenhall sees far fewer carries than many are projecting.* = wild speculation, but makes some sense

 

[TheDirtyWord]

What about Maroney? Playing off your analysis, I'd say Mendenhall's situation is closer to Maroney's than any other recent late first-round back given it's a stable organization and there's an established starter who had a decline in production the previous season. The 2006 split for the Pats was: - there Dillon 199/812/13Maroney 175/745/6I don't think it's wise to draw significant conclusions from an isolated example, but it's the closest we have to a comparable situation. It seems most here are hovering around 275 for Willie. I see it more like 225, with 150 for Mendenhall and 50 for Moore. If that's outlandish, so be it.

The situation I'd compare it too most closely is Marshall Faulk/Stephen Jackson. Dillon/Maroney is also a good example, but like Mendenhall, Jackson fell in the draft too. If you remember, some people thought Jackson could go as high as #6 to Detroit. Mendenhall had some Top 10 buzz for awhile too.Here is the thing though, in both situations (Faulk & Dillon) the incumbent was breaking down at the time of the understudies drafting. The writing was on the wall. I know Parker is coming off an injury, but at 28 (Faulk was 31 & Dillon 32) there are miles still left on Parker's tires. To say Parker had a decline in production is a bit of a misnomer - he was leading the NFL in rushing at the time of his injury.Again, I'm not saying Mendenhall rides the bench...but Parker will not cede the position as bellcow this year. His workload will simply be alleviated.

 

[valhallan]

The situation I'd compare it too most closely is Marshall Faulk/Stephen Jackson. Dillon/Maroney is also a good example, but like Mendenhall, Jackson fell in the draft too. If you remember, some people thought Jackson could go as high as #6 to Detroit. Mendenhall had some Top 10 buzz for awhile too.Here is the thing though, in both situations (Faulk & Dillon) the incumbent was breaking down at the time of the understudies drafting. The writing was on the wall. I know Parker is coming off an injury, but at 28 (Faulk was 31 & Dillon 32) there are miles still left on Parker's tires. To say Parker had a decline in production is a bit of a misnomer - he was leading the NFL in rushing at the time of his injury.Again, I'm not saying Mendenhall rides the bench...but Parker will not cede the position as bellcow this year. His workload will simply be alleviated.

Fair enough. I hesitate to compare anything to a Mike Martz offense, but I understand the point you're trying to make. I based "decline in production" on his lower YPC, much lower TDs, and injury. Obviously he still had a productive season, though. I was really just trying to make the comparison of a stable franchise with an incumbent starter, since you made a point to mention franchise stability in your original post.

 

[Chairshot]

The numbers some people are suggesting just don't make sense to me. Here are some things we know:

- Willie Parker's YPC have declined each of the past 2 seasons. Maybe that's a trend, maybe not, but it is a fact.

- the Steelers lost Alan Faneca. This point is getting WAY over looked, IMO. He is one of the best guards in the league (five time All-Pro and 7 time Pro Bowl selection) and his likely replacement is a 6th round pick with 2 career starts. I don't see how this can be considered anything but a huge downgrade for any Steelers RB.

- Mewelde Moore is the type of back that has more catches then carries, which was the case in 2006. The primary reason they bring him in is for his pass catching skills. Which means Moore is their back on passing downs and Parker basically becomes a 2 down back. Last year, on 3rd down, Parker rushed 7 times and had 0 targets. Davenport had 26 rushes and 13 targets. And Moore is a better receiver then Davenport. Seems likely even more touches come Moore's way on 3rd down.

Consider this: Najeh Davenport had 107 carries last season. Fifty-two of those carries came after Parker's injury. Up until that point, Davenport was averaging a little over 4 carries a game, with Parker getting all the rest.

Do we *really* think that Rashard Mendenhall is only going to get 4 carries a game? Does anyone actually think that Mendenhall is going to finish up with 60-65 carries, the pace that Davenport was on before Parker's injury? That just seems really, really unlikely to me.

I guess my questions are: if the Steelers can give their feature back a break during the regular season by cutting his carries about 25-30%, *without* losing much (if any) production, why *wouldn't* they do that? If Mendenhall can come in and keep his YPC at or near Parker's level (which isn't terribly hard, given that Parker had a 4.1 last year), why wouldn't they throw him 10 or 12 carries per game to Parker's 15 to 18? Even 8 carries a game would double the cut Davenport was taking out of Parker's workload.

It just seems to me that the arguments for Parker increasing his production amount to "because FWP is awesome". All the signs seem to indicate that a further decline (from a fantasy perspective) is very possible, if not likely. All those signs say that Parker's touches seem likely to decrease.

At least that's what the signs seem to say to me.

 

[the UFFRM]

The numbers some people are suggesting just don't make sense to me. Here are some things we know:- Willie Parker's YPC have decline each of the past 2 seasons. Maybe that's a trend, maybe not, but it is a fact.- the Steelers lost Alan Faneca. This point is getting WAY over looked, IMO. He is one of the best guards in the league (five time All-Pro and 7 time Pro Bowl selection) and his likely replacement is a 6th round pick with 2 career starts. I don't see how this can be considered anything but a huge downgrade for any Steelers RB.- Mewelde Moore is the type of back that has more catches then carries, which was the case in 2006. The primary reason they bring him in is for his pass catching skills. Which means Moore is their back on passing downs and Parker basically becomes a 2 down back. Last year, on 3rd down, Parker rushed 7 times and had 0 targets. Davenport had 26 rushes and 13 targets. And Moore is better receiver then Davenport. Seems likely even more touches come Moore's way on 3rd down.Consider this: Najeh Davenport had 107 carries last season. Fifty-two of those carries came after Parker's injury. Up until that point, Davenport was averaging a little over 4 carries a game, with Parker getting all the rest.Do we *really* think that Rashard Mendenhall is only going to get 4 carries a game? Does anyone actually think that Mendenhall is going to finish up with 60-65 carries, the pace that Davenport was on before Parker's injury? That just seems really, really unlikely to me.I guess my questions are: if the Steelers can give their feature back a break during the regular season by cutting his carries about 25-30%, *without* losing much (if any) production, why *wouldn't* they do that? If Mendenhall can come in and keep his YPC at or near Parker's level (which isn't terribly hard, given that Parker had a 4.1 last year), why wouldn't they throw him 10 or 12 carries per game to Parker's 15 to 18? Even 8 carries a game would double the cut Davenport was taking out of Parker's workload.It just seems to me that the arguments for Parker increasing his production amount to "because FWP is awesome". All the signs seem to indicate that a further decline (from a fantasy perspective) is very possible, if not likely. All those signs say that Parker's touches seem likely to decrease. At least that's what the signs seem to say to me.

 

[Two Deep]

The numbers some people are suggesting just don't make sense to me. Here are some things we know:

- Willie Parker's YPC have declined each of the past 2 seasons. Maybe that's a trend, maybe not, but it is a fact.

- the Steelers lost Alan Faneca. This point is getting WAY over looked, IMO. He is one of the best guards in the league (five time All-Pro and 7 time Pro Bowl selection) and his likely replacement is a 6th round pick with 2 career starts. I don't see how this can be considered anything but a huge downgrade for any Steelers RB.

- Mewelde Moore is the type of back that has more catches then carries, which was the case in 2006. The primary reason they bring him in is for his pass catching skills. Which means Moore is their back on passing downs and Parker basically becomes a 2 down back. Last year, on 3rd down, Parker rushed 7 times and had 0 targets. Davenport had 26 rushes and 13 targets. And Moore is a better receiver then Davenport. Seems likely even more touches come Moore's way on 3rd down.

Consider this: Najeh Davenport had 107 carries last season. Fifty-two of those carries came after Parker's injury. Up until that point, Davenport was averaging a little over 4 carries a game, with Parker getting all the rest.

Do we *really* think that Rashard Mendenhall is only going to get 4 carries a game? Does anyone actually think that Mendenhall is going to finish up with 60-65 carries, the pace that Davenport was on before Parker's injury? That just seems really, really unlikely to me.

I guess my questions are: if the Steelers can give their feature back a break during the regular season by cutting his carries about 25-30%, *without* losing much (if any) production, why *wouldn't* they do that? If Mendenhall can come in and keep his YPC at or near Parker's level (which isn't terribly hard, given that Parker had a 4.1 last year), why wouldn't they throw him 10 or 12 carries per game to Parker's 15 to 18? Even 8 carries a game would double the cut Davenport was taking out of Parker's workload.

It just seems to me that the arguments for Parker increasing his production amount to "because FWP is awesome". All the signs seem to indicate that a further decline (from a fantasy perspective) is very possible, if not likely. All those signs say that Parker's touches seem likely to decrease.

At least that's what the signs seem to say to me.

I went back through and I was highest at 275 carries which is a 46 carry decline from last year. I predicted 8 tds, (big deal) my gut tells me the 2 tds of last year were the anomaly. Willie has the ability to score from anywhere on the field and thats what I'm predicting. So as you can see nobody has predicted more touches.

 

[5-ish Finkle]

I went back through and I was highest at 275 carries which is a 46 carry decline from last year. I predicted 8 tds, (big deal) my gut tells me the 2 tds of last year were the anomaly. Willie has the ability to score from anywhere on the field and thats what I'm predicting. So as you can see nobody has predicted more touches.

I was wondering about that myself. Who in here is predicting an increase in production?If Parker got those 18 carries per game he'd still be clearing nearly 290 carries. I don't see that happening. I think they're going to want him in the 250-260 area. Mendenhall in the 160-ish area. The rest of the RB stable likely won't get many carries at all combined, unless injury strikes, regardless of how much they "like Gary Russell." I see Moore snaking catches from BOTH Parker and Mendenhall, at least while Mendenhall picks up blocking/blitz assignments.

As for Faneca leaving, there will certainly be a downgrade of some sort at least for a while, but Faneca had regressed for two straight seasons. He's not the Alan Faneca from 2005 anymore. He didn't exactly have a banner year in 2007(nor did any of their OLineman) and the Steelers still had the league leader in rushing yardage when Parker got hurt. The play of their OC was HORRID, which probably had an effect on Faneca last season, so if they can even get "league average" play at C the downgrade at LG may not be as large of a drop as you'd think. A drop off, yes. A fall into the abyss? Maybe not.

Basically, Parker will be getting his. Mendenhall will be getting his too, though. The rub with Parker is that drafting him basically forces you to consider taking Mendenhall early enough to be able to lock down the Steeler running game. And that's a high price to potentially have to pay for a guy who's likely going to score like a RB2.

Still, that running game should still be too good to ignore and if either Parker or Mendenhall gets hurt the other's value shoots up immediately.

 

[Chairshot]

I went back through and I was highest at 275 carries which is a 46 carry decline from last year. I predicted 8 tds, (big deal) my gut tells me the 2 tds of last year were the anomaly. Willie has the ability to score from anywhere on the field and thats what I'm predicting. So as you can see nobody has predicted more touches.

I definitely could have worded it better. I probably should have said a decrease in production as opposed to a decrease in carries/touches. That's what I get for posting at 2 in the morning. However, while not making hard predictions, there have been some arguments up above that Mendenhall will not significantly cut into Parker's touches and that Parker is still a legit RB1. Or some believe that even if Mendenhall does take significant carries away, that Parker will still maintain his over all rushing totals. I was speaking more to those points.For example, you predicted 275 carries but still believe he will get the 1300 rushing yards. In order for that to happen, Parker would have to meet or slightly exceed his career high in YPC (of about 4.7 - putting him back near the top of the league in YPC), despite the trend of his YPC decreasing the past 2 years and the loss of Faneca. You also predicted that he will see a slight increase in production for receiving yards, while his receptions stay flat. So, 50 less carries and 10 less catches equal a slight increase in total yards and 8 more TDs. To me, that seems unlikely. Just a quick point on Faneca. It may be that he isn't the Faneca of 2005. But he was still named an All-Pro and to the Pro Bowl last year. It's certainly true that sometimes players are voted in based on name recognition, but there is evidently still some belief by quite a few people that he is one of the best in the game. I think we have to assume moving from an All-Pro to a guy with 2 career starts is probably a downgrade.

 

[TheFanatic]

I gotta say, the drafting of Mendenhall speaks volumes to me here. The new regime is not happy with FWP. 850/4 TD's180/0 TD's

Apparently you don't believe in grooming a back for use down the road. Too say the Steelers are not happy with their Willie is pure speculation. Mendenhall is their futrure Willie is now.

We're talking about RB here. Not QB. He doesn't need to hold the clip board for a couple of years before he can be a player in this league. He needs to be able to hit a hole hard and block to keep the QB upright. What I believe is that the NFL is going to more and more two back sets. Whether it's a goal line back or a Julius Jones/Marion Barber type situation. I don't think that FWP can be a 300 carry guy. He can when that line is dominant but it may not be a dominant as it has been in years past with the loss of Faneca. Coaches are realizing that they need multiple RB's to win games. I think they are going to split time with FWP and RM. Moore is insurance here. If FWP breaks down again they need a vet to help out. Also, considering the decline in YPC and TD's RM may go in there and take over. Not day one. But if he continues to regress and the rook tears it up FWP is going to come to realize that NFL stands for Not For Long. I don't think that is very likely, but I definitely see a MBIII/JJ split with FWP getting the bulk. But I also see RM becoming the GL back. I can see FWP with something like 210 carries for 850 yards and 4 TD's. RM getting something like 170 carries for 750 yards and 6-8 TD's (GL carries will inflate this) and M.Moore getting another 50-70 carries and a TD or two.

 

[shadyridr]

Bad offensive line, Big Bens emergence as a weapon in the red zone, drafting of a big RB, FWP's broken leg... Im not too high on him this year. Got him ranked 29th

240 att, 1008 yds, 4 tds, 32 rec, 224 yds

 

[treat88]

Also, considering the decline in YPC and TD's RM may go in there and take over. Not day one. But if he continues to regress and the rook tears it up FWP is going to come to realize that NFL stands for Not For Long. I don't think that is very likely, but I definitely see a MBIII/JJ split with FWP getting the bulk. But I also see RM becoming the GL back.

I agree in principle.However, I disagree that FWP regressed so much as the OC/O-line regressed. FWP did an amazing job to put up the numbers he did given the playcalling and lack of blocking up-front.I do think there will be more rushing TD's to divvy up amongst the RB with FWP/Rushhard splitting them about evenly, Arians playcalling aside.The Steelers are in a perfect situation to feature Wille just enough to maximize his trade value, groom Rushhard, and utilize all the backs in the stable in a win now manner. 4-6 carries for RM early in the season growing to a 50-50 split by season's end and in blow outs sounds about right.The Steelers O has the opportunity to be devastating given the variety of weapons and looks they can put on the field at any one time. This RB stable is great in real life, but sucks for FF owners. Arians is the one variable that will hold the O back. He's dreadful.

 

[IndyHavoc]

Bad offensive line, Big Bens emergence as a weapon in the red zone, drafting of a big RB, FWP's broken leg... Im not too high on him this year. Got him ranked 29th 240 att, 1008 yds, 4 tds, 32 rec, 224 yds

29th? 1200 yrds total, 4 tds is 29th. Man, you're projecting, what, 20 RB's having career years then?

 

[shadyridr]

Bad offensive line, Big Bens emergence as a weapon in the red zone, drafting of a big RB, FWP's broken leg... Im not too high on him this year. Got him ranked 29th 240 att, 1008 yds, 4 tds, 32 rec, 224 yds

29th? 1200 yrds total, 4 tds is 29th. Man, you're projecting, what, 20 RB's having career years then?

You realize projections are done assuming everyone plays 16 games?

 

[Jon_Moore]

People are so ready to throw Mendenhall right on the field. It takes rookie backs some time to adjust to the NFL and improve their blocking to where it needs to be. Maroney couldn't get rid of Dillon. Deangelo Williams couldn't get rid of Deshaun Foster, and now we're writing off Willie Parker?!

If you discount week 16 in which he got 1 carry for -1 Yards--in 14 games he had 1317 Rushing yards, 23 catches for 164 Yards...in the extra two games that extrapolates to:

365 Carries

1505 Rushing Yards

26 Catches

187 Yards receiving

This would have made him 1st in Rushing attempts and 1st in Rushing Yards...So, you can see they were giving him all the opportunities in the world, and he was making them count. The Steelers are still going to making running the ball a priority, and Parker is still their lead guy. Mendenhall gives them a very good back in case something happens to Parker late in the season, but he is not to replace Parker. He'll also give Parker fresher legs later in the season since he won't have to carry the league's largest load all by himself.

Parker may never see the goal line carries again, so the 16 TD seasons could be a thing of the past. still, he's not "Fast Willie Parker" for nothing. He'll break a handful of long ones, and should catch a few as well.

290 Rushes

1334 Rushing Yards

7 Rushing TD's

30 Receptions

213 Receiving Yards

2 Receiving Tds

 

[MCguidance]

People are so ready to throw Mendenhall right on the field. It takes rookie backs some time to adjust to the NFL and improve their blocking to where it needs to be. Maroney couldn't get rid of Dillon. Deangelo Williams couldn't get rid of Deshaun Foster, and now we're writing off Willie Parker?!If you discount week 16 in which he got 1 carry for -1 Yards--in 14 games he had 1317 Rushing yards, 23 catches for 164 Yards...in the extra two games that extrapolates to:365 Carries1505 Rushing Yards26 Catches187 Yards receivingThis would have made him 1st in Rushing attempts and 1st in Rushing Yards...So, you can see they were giving him all the opportunities in the world, and he was making them count. The Steelers are still going to making running the ball a priority, and Parker is still their lead guy. Mendenhall gives them a very good back in case something happens to Parker late in the season, but he is not to replace Parker. He'll also give Parker fresher legs later in the season since he won't have to carry the league's largest load all by himself. Parker may never see the goal line carries again, so the 16 TD seasons could be a thing of the past. still, he's not "Fast Willie Parker" for nothing. He'll break a handful of long ones, and should catch a few as well.290 Rushes1334 Rushing Yards7 Rushing TD's30 Receptions213 Receiving Yards2 Receiving Tds

This is more along the lines I am thinking...as of now. As TC unfolds and the situation starts to clarify a bit, I may either temper or inflate my numbers. ALthough I agree with the above logic, I am taking a bit more of a conservative tone here:285/4.35/1,239/6I may be underestimating the loss of loss of Faneca - which could again cut into the numbers. As a Jets fan, I won't complain

 

[TheFanatic]

290 Rushes

1334 Rushing Yards

7 Rushing TD's

30 Receptions

213 Receiving Yards

2 Receiving Tds

So you expect him to have a 4.6 YPC which would be .1 behind his highest of his career after going downhill the last two years and losing Faneca? And you predict 1 less catch than his career high of 31?Let us know, how many leagues do you own FWP in?

 

[TheFanatic]

People are so ready to throw Mendenhall right on the field. It takes rookie backs some time to adjust to the NFL and improve their blocking to where it needs to be. Maroney couldn't get rid of Dillon. Deangelo Williams couldn't get rid of Deshaun Foster, and now we're writing off Willie Parker?!

You realize that RB is probably the easiest position to adjust to in the NFL? More rookie RB's start game one than just about any other position.

 

[Jon_Moore]

290 Rushes

1334 Rushing Yards

7 Rushing TD's

30 Receptions

213 Receiving Yards

2 Receiving Tds

So you expect him to have a 4.6 YPC which would be .1 behind his highest of his career after going downhill the last two years and losing Faneca? And you predict 1 less catch than his career high of 31?Let us know, how many leagues do you own FWP in?

You'd be correct on the first part friend. I think he'll see just a tad under 300. He's a fast back, not a power one. Those guys usually bring in higher YPC, especially if he has someone to lighten the load and keep his legs fresh. With Mendenahll to bang on the inside a bit more, they'll look to get Parker back out in space some a la the pass, or so logic dictates.Second part: Zero. Though I did trade him for Tiki Barber in the offseason 2 years ago in a league. Then Tiki announces it's his last season. And then Parker outplayed him.

People are so ready to throw Mendenhall right on the field. It takes rookie backs some time to adjust to the NFL and improve their blocking to where it needs to be. Maroney couldn't get rid of Dillon. Deangelo Williams couldn't get rid of Deshaun Foster, and now we're writing off Willie Parker?!

You realize that RB is probably the easiest position to adjust to in the NFL? More rookie RB's start game one than just about any other position.

You realize you've already pointed that out a time or 2? You throw out "How many leagues do you own Parker in?" But, you sure seem fired up that your boy is going to get significant time out of the gate. It may be the easiest to adjust to, but several take a few weeks to half a season before they can block adequately to see significant time. Even then, you don't just throw someone who has played the way Parker has off the lead role. He's not coming in with a Dominic Rhodes in front of him. If he hadn't missed time last year, he would have averaged right around 1500 yards rushing for the last 2 years....you just don't say ok thanks bye. It's not to say they're loyal either...he's just really good. Sorry if you don't see it that way. I've got him losing an average of 5 carries a game this year because of Mendenhall...I really wonder if it's that much when all said and done.

 

[Chairshot]

It may be the easiest to adjust to, but several take a few weeks to half a season before they can block adequately to see significant time. Even then, you don't just throw someone who has played the way Parker has off the lead role. He's not coming in with a Dominic Rhodes in front of him. If he hadn't missed time last year, he would have averaged right around 1500 yards rushing for the last 2 years....you just don't say ok thanks bye. It's not to say they're loyal either...he's just really good. Sorry if you don't see it that way. I've got him losing an average of 5 carries a game this year because of Mendenhall...I really wonder if it's that much when all said and done.

You really only have Mendenhall getting 5 carries a game? Eighty carries would be one of the lowest carry totals by any healthy first round pick in recent memory. It would be a historical situation of Mendenhall was only given 80 carries.

 

[Jon_Moore]

It may be the easiest to adjust to, but several take a few weeks to half a season before they can block adequately to see significant time. Even then, you don't just throw someone who has played the way Parker has off the lead role. He's not coming in with a Dominic Rhodes in front of him. If he hadn't missed time last year, he would have averaged right around 1500 yards rushing for the last 2 years....you just don't say ok thanks bye. It's not to say they're loyal either...he's just really good. Sorry if you don't see it that way. I've got him losing an average of 5 carries a game this year because of Mendenhall...I really wonder if it's that much when all said and done.

You really only have Mendenhall getting 5 carries a game? Eighty carries would be one of the lowest carry totals by any healthy first round pick in recent memory. It would be a historical situation of Mendenhall was only given 80 carries.

Yeah, it would. But, consider Parker's not the only one that carried the ball last year. I have Parker losing 80ish to him. Davenport's gone, so if they rush the same as last year, that's roughtly another 110 carries for him to see. That's 190--which is slightly higher than I forsee him touching it this year, but close nonetheless.

 

[Tackling Dummies]

...you just don't say ok thanks bye. It's not to say they're loyal either...he's just really good.

Sorry to break this to you, but "ok, thanks and bye" are standard in the league. Players are disposable, there's always some in next year's draft or on the wire. Roster turnover is envitable, especially with any player that loses a step, is overpaid, injured, beats up his girlfriend, has a poor attitude, misses meetings or is underperforming. Mendenhall is not a waiver wire development project that is changing positions, he was drafted to play. Back to Parker...285 carries1175 yds7 TDs35 recept245 yds1 TD1420 net 8 TDs

 

[TheFanatic]

290 Rushes

1334 Rushing Yards

7 Rushing TD's

30 Receptions

213 Receiving Yards

2 Receiving Tds

So you expect him to have a 4.6 YPC which would be .1 behind his highest of his career after going downhill the last two years and losing Faneca? And you predict 1 less catch than his career high of 31?Let us know, how many leagues do you own FWP in?

You'd be correct on the first part friend. I think he'll see just a tad under 300. He's a fast back, not a power one. Those guys usually bring in higher YPC, especially if he has someone to lighten the load and keep his legs fresh. With Mendenahll to bang on the inside a bit more, they'll look to get Parker back out in space some a la the pass, or so logic dictates.Second part: Zero. Though I did trade him for Tiki Barber in the offseason 2 years ago in a league. Then Tiki announces it's his last season. And then Parker outplayed him.

People are so ready to throw Mendenhall right on the field. It takes rookie backs some time to adjust to the NFL and improve their blocking to where it needs to be. Maroney couldn't get rid of Dillon. Deangelo Williams couldn't get rid of Deshaun Foster, and now we're writing off Willie Parker?!

You realize that RB is probably the easiest position to adjust to in the NFL? More rookie RB's start game one than just about any other position.

You realize you've already pointed that out a time or 2? You throw out "How many leagues do you own Parker in?" But, you sure seem fired up that your boy is going to get significant time out of the gate. It may be the easiest to adjust to, but several take a few weeks to half a season before they can block adequately to see significant time. Even then, you don't just throw someone who has played the way Parker has off the lead role. He's not coming in with a Dominic Rhodes in front of him. If he hadn't missed time last year, he would have averaged right around 1500 yards rushing for the last 2 years....you just don't say ok thanks bye. It's not to say they're loyal either...he's just really good. Sorry if you don't see it that way. I've got him losing an average of 5 carries a game this year because of Mendenhall...I really wonder if it's that much when all said and done.

I had to point it out again because you and a couple other people out here think that Mendenhall is some sort of project back that needs to learn the game in order to compete. The guy played in a big time conference and in some big time games. I don't know first hand if he is a good blocker, but I would bet he has some experience with the task. As for my boy? Well, that's not the case. I don't have him in any league. My projections for him are pretty modest at 700+ yards with a decent amount of TD's which is not out of the realm of possibility particularly when you state that the Steelers may use RM to get rough yards inside to keep FWP fresh.

You claim to not own the guy yet you are predicting near career highs for a guy that has had a couple down years since that break out year 3 years ago, is on a team that lost a great Guard, has a new scheme, and drafted a some nice aerial weapons for the QB who, despite your strange bias for FWP, is actually the star of the team. The closest affiliation to Mendenhall is that he played football about 4 hours away from me and lost to my Mizzou Tigers week 1 of the college football season last year.

So, either you just have a stiffy for FWP or you own him in at least one league....Sorry guy but I think it's the latter....

 

[Q-Bert]

I went back through and I was highest at 275 carries which is a 46 carry decline from last year. I predicted 8 tds, (big deal) my gut tells me the 2 tds of last year were the anomaly. Willie has the ability to score from anywhere on the field and thats what I'm predicting. So as you can see nobody has predicted more touches.

FWP's TD totals for the last three seasons:2

16

5

Which year looks like the anomaly?

 

[Chairshot]

Yeah, it would. But, consider Parker's not the only one that carried the ball last year. I have Parker losing 80ish to him. Davenport's gone, so if they rush the same as last year, that's roughtly another 110 carries for him to see. That's 190--which is slightly higher than I forsee him touching it this year, but close nonetheless.

I'm really not trying to play a game of "gotcha" with you, but if you are saying that Mendenhall is going to get an *additional* 80 carries to what Davenport got last year, how do you get to 290 carries for Parker?Parker had 321 carries last year with Davenport getting 107 carries. Take away another 80 and that puts you in the 240 range for Parker.Unless you think that the Steelers are going to run the ball 80 more times this year and give them all to Mendenhall, the math just doesn't work.If Mendenhall gets 190 carries I don't see any way Parker gets to 290. The Steelers had 453 and 415 rushes from their running backs combined the last 2 years. I don't know how realistic it is to say that just Parker and Mendenhall alone are going to get 480 on top of the at least 25 or 30 that Moore, Russell and the rest will get. That's basically projecting 500+ RB carries for the team this year. Only one team has done that in the past 6 years, the 2004 Steelers. And on that team, Jerome Bettis was the leader with only 250 carries; Duce Staley got close to 200 himself. That season was pretty unique on it's own as it was Ben Roethlisberger's rookie year and the team clearly had a plan to run the as much as possible to take pressure off Big Ben.So, either way, for what you are projecting you need a historical type season. I'm not saying it can't happen, I'm just saying it appears really unlikely.

 

[TheFanatic]

Yeah, it would. But, consider Parker's not the only one that carried the ball last year. I have Parker losing 80ish to him. Davenport's gone, so if they rush the same as last year, that's roughtly another 110 carries for him to see. That's 190--which is slightly higher than I forsee him touching it this year, but close nonetheless.

I'm really not trying to play a game of "gotcha" with you, but if you are saying that Mendenhall is going to get an *additional* 80 carries to what Davenport got last year, how do you get to 290 carries for Parker?Parker had 321 carries last year with Davenport getting 107 carries. Take away another 80 and that puts you in the 240 range for Parker.

Unless you think that the Steelers are going to run the ball 80 more times this year and give them all to Mendenhall, the math just doesn't work.

If Mendenhall gets 190 carries I don't see any way Parker gets to 290. The Steelers had 453 and 415 rushes from their running backs combined the last 2 years. I don't know how realistic it is to say that just Parker and Mendenhall alone are going to get 480 on top of the at least 25 or 30 that Moore, Russell and the rest will get.

That's basically projecting 500+ RB carries for the team this year. Only one team has done that in the past 6 years, the 2004 Steelers. And on that team, Jerome Bettis was the leader with only 250 carries; Duce Staley got close to 200 himself. That season was pretty unique on it's own as it was Ben Roethlisberger's rookie year and the team clearly had a plan to run the as much as possible to take pressure off Big Ben.

So, either way, for what you are projecting you need a historical type season. I'm not saying it can't happen, I'm just saying it appears really unlikely.

I think 290 is high for FWP. I think they are gonna transition to the keep each RB fresh by limiting the carries. Like I said, 210 for FWP and say 160-170 for RM. That's only 370-380 carries. That leaves another 50 or so (keeping with their averages) for other backs.

 

[JamesTheScot]

OK, I should have said almost always. You named 4 running backs (eventual Pro Bowlers, I might add) that didn't tote the rock much in their first season but why does that automatically mean Mendenhall won't? I can name about 20 first-round backs in the past 10 years who had well over 100 carries in their rookie campaigns. What to you indicates he's more likely to see only 16 carries like Deuce or 64 like Alexander, rather than the 100+ that an overwhelming majority of first-round backs have received?

Maybe because first round RB's are rarely being drafted by teams with a 1300+ yard rusher less than 30 years old returning from the previous season?Those are the comparative numbers I'd like to see.

Teams that take a RB in the first usually have a RB need so the draftee gets pressed into immediate service. Usually but not always. New Orleans, Seattle, Kansas City and Buffalo being fairly similar exceptions just going by memory. Like Buffalo did with McGahee, I think Pit grabbed Mendenhall because they thought he was a great talent that slipped and while they may have had other pressing needs, they couldn't pass on him.

New Orleans and Seattle both had the Ricky's in place as starters and Buffalo had Henry. Watters rushed for 1100+, 1200+ and 1200+ the three seasons before Alexander was drafted. Williams rushed for 800+, 1000+ the two injury shortened seasons before Duece was drafted - Williams was still considered a top tier talent though. Henry rushed for 700+ (12 starts) and then 1400+ the two seasons before McGahee. Holmes rushed for 1500+ and then 1600+ the two season before LJ came along. Ironically, Seattle drafted Alexander with Ahman Green on the roster as Watters's backup. McGehee is a little odd in that he had the injury carryover which affected his rookie season. It took LJ two seasons backing Holmes up to get the pampers off.

Where is Oakland's returning 1300+ rusher?

Where is Carolina's returning 1300+rusher?

Where is Detroit's returning 1300+ rusher?

Where is Dallas's returning 1300+ rusher?

Where is Pittsburgh's returning 1300+ rusher? Doh. Bingo.

I think Mendenhall is the bellcow of the future for Pitt. But I think FWP gets another year before he gets phased out.

 

[Biabreakable]

OK, I should have said almost always. You named 4 running backs (eventual Pro Bowlers, I might add) that didn't tote the rock much in their first season but why does that automatically mean Mendenhall won't? I can name about 20 first-round backs in the past 10 years who had well over 100 carries in their rookie campaigns. What to you indicates he's more likely to see only 16 carries like Deuce or 64 like Alexander, rather than the 100+ that an overwhelming majority of first-round backs have received?

Maybe because first round RB's are rarely being drafted by teams with a 1300+ yard rusher less than 30 years old returning from the previous season?Those are the comparative numbers I'd like to see.

Teams that take a RB in the first usually have a RB need so the draftee gets pressed into immediate service. Usually but not always. New Orleans, Seattle, Kansas City and Buffalo being fairly similar exceptions just going by memory. Like Buffalo did with McGahee, I think Pit grabbed Mendenhall because they thought he was a great talent that slipped and while they may have had other pressing needs, they couldn't pass on him.

New Orleans and Seattle both had the Ricky's in place as starters and Buffalo had Henry. Watters rushed for 1100+, 1200+ and 1200+ the three seasons before Alexander was drafted. Williams rushed for 800+, 1000+ the two injury shortened seasons before Duece was drafted - Williams was still considered a top tier talent though. Henry rushed for 700+ (12 starts) and then 1400+ the two seasons before McGahee. Holmes rushed for 1500+ and then 1600+ the two season before LJ came along. Ironically, Seattle drafted Alexander with Ahman Green on the roster as Watters's backup. McGehee is a little odd in that he had the injury carryover which affected his rookie season. It took LJ two seasons backing Holmes up to get the pampers off.

Where is Oakland's returning 1300+ rusher?

Where is Carolina's returning 1300+rusher?

Where is Detroit's returning 1300+ rusher?

Where is Dallas's returning 1300+ rusher?

Where is Pittsburgh's returning 1300+ rusher? Doh. Bingo.

I think Mendenhall is the bellcow of the future for Pitt. But I think FWP gets another year before he gets phased out.

Other examples:Chris Perry being drafted in the 1st round when the Bengals allready had Rudi Johnson.

Cedric Benson being drafted in the 1st round when the Bears allready had Thomas Jones.

Ronnie Brown being drafted in the 1st round when the Dolphins had Ricky Williams (coming off retirement).

And many more I am sure.

For Skill set I think Mendenhall compares closely to Perry. Hopefully Mendenhall has a more healthy career.

 

[TheFanatic]

I think Mendenhall is the bellcow of the future for Pitt. But I think FWP gets another year before he gets phased out.

I can see this, but I think his leash is shorter than you realize. And FWP is sees the writing on the wall and will be working his butt off to keep his job. This moves motivates FWP, gives the Steelers a TON of leverage in negotiations with FWP and gives them options as to resigning him.

 

[Two Deep]

290 Rushes

1334 Rushing Yards

7 Rushing TD's

30 Receptions

213 Receiving Yards

2 Receiving Tds

So you expect him to have a 4.6 YPC which would be .1 behind his highest of his career after going downhill the last two years and losing Faneca? And you predict 1 less catch than his career high of 31?Let us know, how many leagues do you own FWP in?

You'd be correct on the first part friend. I think he'll see just a tad under 300. He's a fast back, not a power one. Those guys usually bring in higher YPC, especially if he has someone to lighten the load and keep his legs fresh. With Mendenahll to bang on the inside a bit more, they'll look to get Parker back out in space some a la the pass, or so logic dictates.Second part: Zero. Though I did trade him for Tiki Barber in the offseason 2 years ago in a league. Then Tiki announces it's his last season. And then Parker outplayed him.

People are so ready to throw Mendenhall right on the field. It takes rookie backs some time to adjust to the NFL and improve their blocking to where it needs to be. Maroney couldn't get rid of Dillon. Deangelo Williams couldn't get rid of Deshaun Foster, and now we're writing off Willie Parker?!

You realize that RB is probably the easiest position to adjust to in the NFL? More rookie RB's start game one than just about any other position.

You realize you've already pointed that out a time or 2? You throw out "How many leagues do you own Parker in?" But, you sure seem fired up that your boy is going to get significant time out of the gate. It may be the easiest to adjust to, but several take a few weeks to half a season before they can block adequately to see significant time. Even then, you don't just throw someone who has played the way Parker has off the lead role. He's not coming in with a Dominic Rhodes in front of him. If he hadn't missed time last year, he would have averaged right around 1500 yards rushing for the last 2 years....you just don't say ok thanks bye. It's not to say they're loyal either...he's just really good. Sorry if you don't see it that way. I've got him losing an average of 5 carries a game this year because of Mendenhall...I really wonder if it's that much when all said and done.

I had to point it out again because you and a couple other people out here think that Mendenhall is some sort of project back that needs to learn the game in order to compete. The guy played in a big time conference and in some big time games. I don't know first hand if he is a good blocker, but I would bet he has some experience with the task. As for my boy? Well, that's not the case. I don't have him in any league. My projections for him are pretty modest at 700+ yards with a decent amount of TD's which is not out of the realm of possibility particularly when you state that the Steelers may use RM to get rough yards inside to keep FWP fresh.

You claim to not own the guy yet you are predicting near career highs for a guy that has had a couple down years since that break out year 3 years ago, is on a team that lost a great Guard, has a new scheme, and drafted a some nice aerial weapons for the QB who, despite your strange bias for FWP, is actually the star of the team. The closest affiliation to Mendenhall is that he played football about 4 hours away from me and lost to my Mizzou Tigers week 1 of the college football season last year.

So, either you just have a stiffy for FWP or you own him in at least one league....Sorry guy but I think it's the latter....

I think you over simplify the position and transition. He had one full year of starters carries in college if I'm not mistaken. Huge jump for him to make. IMO

 

[Jon_Moore]

290 Rushes

1334 Rushing Yards

7 Rushing TD's

30 Receptions

213 Receiving Yards

2 Receiving Tds

So you expect him to have a 4.6 YPC which would be .1 behind his highest of his career after going downhill the last two years and losing Faneca? And you predict 1 less catch than his career high of 31?Let us know, how many leagues do you own FWP in?

You'd be correct on the first part friend. I think he'll see just a tad under 300. He's a fast back, not a power one. Those guys usually bring in higher YPC, especially if he has someone to lighten the load and keep his legs fresh. With Mendenahll to bang on the inside a bit more, they'll look to get Parker back out in space some a la the pass, or so logic dictates.Second part: Zero. Though I did trade him for Tiki Barber in the offseason 2 years ago in a league. Then Tiki announces it's his last season. And then Parker outplayed him.

People are so ready to throw Mendenhall right on the field. It takes rookie backs some time to adjust to the NFL and improve their blocking to where it needs to be. Maroney couldn't get rid of Dillon. Deangelo Williams couldn't get rid of Deshaun Foster, and now we're writing off Willie Parker?!

You realize that RB is probably the easiest position to adjust to in the NFL? More rookie RB's start game one than just about any other position.

You realize you've already pointed that out a time or 2? You throw out "How many leagues do you own Parker in?" But, you sure seem fired up that your boy is going to get significant time out of the gate. It may be the easiest to adjust to, but several take a few weeks to half a season before they can block adequately to see significant time. Even then, you don't just throw someone who has played the way Parker has off the lead role. He's not coming in with a Dominic Rhodes in front of him. If he hadn't missed time last year, he would have averaged right around 1500 yards rushing for the last 2 years....you just don't say ok thanks bye. It's not to say they're loyal either...he's just really good. Sorry if you don't see it that way. I've got him losing an average of 5 carries a game this year because of Mendenhall...I really wonder if it's that much when all said and done.

I had to point it out again because you and a couple other people out here think that Mendenhall is some sort of project back that needs to learn the game in order to compete. The guy played in a big time conference and in some big time games. I don't know first hand if he is a good blocker, but I would bet he has some experience with the task. As for my boy? Well, that's not the case. I don't have him in any league. My projections for him are pretty modest at 700+ yards with a decent amount of TD's which is not out of the realm of possibility particularly when you state that the Steelers may use RM to get rough yards inside to keep FWP fresh.

You claim to not own the guy yet you are predicting near career highs for a guy that has had a couple down years since that break out year 3 years ago, is on a team that lost a great Guard, has a new scheme, and drafted a some nice aerial weapons for the QB who, despite your strange bias for FWP, is actually the star of the team. The closest affiliation to Mendenhall is that he played football about 4 hours away from me and lost to my Mizzou Tigers week 1 of the college football season last year.

So, either you just have a stiffy for FWP or you own him in at least one league....Sorry guy but I think it's the latter....

No one's ever said he's a project back. Just because you don't come in and knock a probowler's carries to half, you are not labeled a project back. If he'd come into a team without a proven running back, he'd start from day 1, I have 0 doubts about his ability. Unfortunately, for his fantasy value, He went to the Steelers who have a pro-bowl calliber back. I don't have anything at career highs. His carries are down considerably. The yards are about 160 off a career high. The receptions are high, but with another back to go inside, I honestly think he'll catch a few more balls out in space, forgive me if we disagree.

The Tds are at 8. The career high was 16.

Just because our views on a player differ don't mean I have a "stiffy." for him, or that I own him.

I'll undoubtedly take a stab at Parker before the season starts, I like him better than most for the upcoming season.

I'm a big enough boy to make projections based around whether or not I own a player. If you want to disagree, then do so, but I'm not going to go back and forth with you about this. I've given you my reasoning more than once now, I have yours, our opinions still differ.

 

[Jon_Moore]

...you just don't say ok thanks bye. It's not to say they're loyal either...he's just really good.

Sorry to break this to you, but "ok, thanks and bye" are standard in the league. Players are disposable, there's always some in next year's draft or on the wire. Roster turnover is envitable, especially with any player that loses a step, is overpaid, injured, beats up his girlfriend, has a poor attitude, misses meetings or is underperforming. Mendenhall is not a waiver wire development project that is changing positions, he was drafted to play. Back to Parker...285 carries1175 yds7 TDs35 recept245 yds1 TD1420 net 8 TDs

I'VE NEVER SAID MENDENHALL WAS A PROJECT. For the umpteenth time. Not coming in and receiving 20 carries does not make you a project. He's just not getting 20 Carries out of the gate. I find it good that you feel the need to clarify that for me as the other guy continues to do so....and then project PArker for 5 less carries than I do. But, I'm in this mistaken view that Mendenhall's a project, and if I knew he wasn't, I'd give Parker 5 less carries.

 

[Jon_Moore]

Yeah, it would. But, consider Parker's not the only one that carried the ball last year. I have Parker losing 80ish to him. Davenport's gone, so if they rush the same as last year, that's roughtly another 110 carries for him to see. That's 190--which is slightly higher than I forsee him touching it this year, but close nonetheless.

I'm really not trying to play a game of "gotcha" with you, but if you are saying that Mendenhall is going to get an *additional* 80 carries to what Davenport got last year, how do you get to 290 carries for Parker?Parker had 321 carries last year with Davenport getting 107 carries. Take away another 80 and that puts you in the 240 range for Parker.Unless you think that the Steelers are going to run the ball 80 more times this year and give them all to Mendenhall, the math just doesn't work.If Mendenhall gets 190 carries I don't see any way Parker gets to 290. The Steelers had 453 and 415 rushes from their running backs combined the last 2 years. I don't know how realistic it is to say that just Parker and Mendenhall alone are going to get 480 on top of the at least 25 or 30 that Moore, Russell and the rest will get. That's basically projecting 500+ RB carries for the team this year. Only one team has done that in the past 6 years, the 2004 Steelers. And on that team, Jerome Bettis was the leader with only 250 carries; Duce Staley got close to 200 himself. That season was pretty unique on it's own as it was Ben Roethlisberger's rookie year and the team clearly had a plan to run the as much as possible to take pressure off Big Ben.So, either way, for what you are projecting you need a historical type season. I'm not saying it can't happen, I'm just saying it appears really unlikely.

I'm not trying to play a game of gotcha either, if it came across that way, my apologies. I think they'll run more this year than in the last couple of seasons. I know they brought in Moore, but with Parker's ability and Mendenhall's 1st round pedigree, I think you're going to see nearly all the work divvied up between the top 2 backs. I'm not going to go out and call 500 carries, I said that was a little above what I had Mendenhall down for. I think the best comparison I can think of is Addai/Rhodes a few years back. The steelers should run a tad more. I don't think Parker gets as many TDs as Addai did, but I'd put Mendenhall's #'s around Rhodes in terms of carries/a little better yardage.