Player Spotlight: Willis McGahee (1 Viewer)

[Musesboy]

I watched Willis McGahee a lot last year from my seat opposite the 26 yard line. Mularkey did not use him well at all. There were too many trick plays on first down inside the five, and McGahee was not used to pound the ball in as much as I would like. Shaud Williams was regularly used as a third down back which was also a bad move as he isn't very talented.

The first half of the season looked pretty good for McGahee. He had 790 rushing yards and 4 TDs in that span. A repeat of that over the last eight games would have seen McGahee finish right where LaMont Jordan did and he would have been considered good value. Unfortunately, the offensive line fell apart over the second half of the season. Mike Williams was briefly tried at guard and then replaced with a rookie. One or two other injuries meant that Preston saw time as well.

With a new coaching staff and a new offense, McGahee might be used properly this year. He needs to stay on the field in third down situations and the team must pound the ball inside the five instead of throwing the ball to linemen. If that happens, McGahee should finish in the top ten and would have top five potential if the passing game clicks.

1500-1600 rushing yards, 8-10 TDs

250 receiving yards, 0 TDs.

 

[joffer]

Any RB who gets over 300 carries is worth at least a late 2nd round pick, no?

i was looking back through this thread and i noticed this question which i found interesting. if i look at a standard 12 team league and scoring, i would think that that in order to be "worth a 2nd round pick", i should get no worse than a RB that finishes in the top 24 (i.e. RB2). You could definitely argue that getting RB24 in the 2nd round is not good value, since top WRs and one or two QBs will go as well, but i wouldn't necessarily call it a "bad pick".historically, that means about 150 fantasy points (again, no ppr). The average points of RB24 over the last 5 years is 146.2. So, using the data dominator tool, here are the lowest fantasy point totals for every RB with over 300 carries:

1 Jerome Bettis rb 1994 22 2 16 319 1025 3.21 3 155.80 2 Joe Morris rb 1988 28 7 16 307 1083 3.53 5 154.90 3 Rodney Hampton rb 1994 25 5 14 327 1075 3.29 6 153.80 4 Eddie George rb 2001 28 6 16 315 939 2.98 5 151.80 5 Eddie George rb 2003 30 8 16 312 1031 3.30 5 149.40 6 Jerome Bettis rb 1998 26 6 15 316 1185 3.75 3 145.50

this is all the seasons <160 points and it seems to tell me that 300 carries pretty much guarantees better than RB24 performance.

 

[Sweetness_34]

Pros in favor of Willis producing better than last year:

a) Bills will have a better defense than last year where they could not stop the run once they lost Takeo Spikes. That forced the Bills to lose their time of possession and forced them to throw more than they would have preferred late in games, taking Willis out of the picture. They get Takeo back, got a NT in FA (forget his name) and drafted SS Whitner with the 8th pick. They are definitely going to be stronger up the middle now, and that will help McGahee get the ball more as the Bills play a grind it out game.

b) JP Losman has to be better than last year, and Nall and Holcob competing only helps.

c) SOS: While it is difficult to predict SOS this early, the fact that they face the NFC North defenses (other than Bears not that great) AND NFC North offenses (none of who are scary), means they will be in close games in each one of these where they will run the ball quite a bit. Also, I think Dolphins and Jets are weak on D too.

d) #### Jauron: He loves to play conservatively.....run run run. And he will run the ball in the redzone, something Mularkey just did not do. (from 2001 to 2003, Anthony Thomas ran the ball 278, 214, 244 times despite having some injuries and being a rookie in one of the years)

Things that should stay equal to last year

a) OL woes..... not much improvement made there.

b) Willis not having much competition for any kind of RBBC to emerge (unless Anthony Thomas catches Jauron's eye again)

Things that should be worse than last year:

a) Loss of Moulds. Yeah he is old, but you cannot discount his presence leading to more 1st downs and keeping less people in the box.

I think Willis has to do better than last year given all he was up against last year. Now considering he had a 4 ypc and 3.8 ypc the last 2 years despite the OL and Qb woes makes me bullish on Willis this year as a value pick early to mid 2nd round (especially right now with all of the RBBCs.....once things settle on some other situations, maybe this will change).

I expect another 300 carry, 1200 yard season, but with more TDs than last year (where he had 5) though less than the 13 he got 2 yearsback, 4 of which were in one game.

300 carries/1200 yards rushing/8 TDs

25 catches 150 yards

 

[David Yudkin]

Any RB who gets over 300 carries is worth at least a late 2nd round pick, no?

i was looking back through this thread and i noticed this question which i found interesting. if i look at a standard 12 team league and scoring, i would think that that in order to be "worth a 2nd round pick", i should get no worse than a RB that finishes in the top 24 (i.e. RB2). You could definitely argue that getting RB24 in the 2nd round is not good value, since top WRs and one or two QBs will go as well, but i wouldn't necessarily call it a "bad pick".historically, that means about 150 fantasy points (again, no ppr). The average points of RB24 over the last 5 years is 146.2. So, using the data dominator tool, here are the lowest fantasy point totals for every RB with over 300 carries:

1 Jerome Bettis rb 1994 22 2 16 319 1025 3.21 3 155.80 2 Joe Morris rb 1988 28 7 16 307 1083 3.53 5 154.90 3 Rodney Hampton rb 1994 25 5 14 327 1075 3.29 6 153.80 4 Eddie George rb 2001 28 6 16 315 939 2.98 5 151.80 5 Eddie George rb 2003 30 8 16 312 1031 3.30 5 149.40 6 Jerome Bettis rb 1998 26 6 15 316 1185 3.75 3 145.50this is all the seasons <160 points and it seems to tell me that 300 carries pretty much guarantees better than RB24 performance.

I've posted several similar comments/numbers over the past few years, so this is not news to me but could be for others. I have always said that guys that are in line to get the ball a lot, even with limited talent, will still be viable fantasy players--and the stats bear this out. I would much rather draft a guy that I knew would get the ball over a guy that had serious competition or had to earn the job somehow.BTW, there were a lot of similarities between McGahee and Caddy last year, yet Williams is going a full round ahead of Willis this year.