Player Spotlight: Zach Miller (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Zach Miller, TE, Oakland Raiders

Player Page Link: Zach Miller Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Posted 44 cathces for 444 yds and 3 TD as a rookie with nothing under center at QB.

If he just increases his numbers a little bit, let's say a 15% improvement. here is what you get...

50/500/4 TD

I think that is his floor actually. He could see more yds and TD, but it will be influenced severely by the progression of JaMarcus Russell.

 

[Englishteacher]

Posted 44 cathces for 444 yds and 3 TD as a rookie with nothing under center at QB.

If he just increases his numbers a little bit, let's say a 15% improvement. here is what you get...

50/500/4 TD

I think that is his floor actually. He could see more yds and TD, but it will be influenced severely by the progression of JaMarcus Russell.

Pretty good rookie year for a TE.Jamarcus Russell dynasty owner.

 

[Mr. Peterson]

The last two games of the season when Russell was the starter Miller was targeted 16 times. Russell loves the guy. He will be looked at alot with Russell as the starter.

 

[Phlash]

The last two games of the season when Russell was the starter Miller was targeted 16 times. Russell loves the guy. He will be looked at alot with Russell as the starter.

shhhhh

 

[MAC_32]

Young QB's love to lean on their TE's, I don't know if he'll creep into my top 12 but he'll be close. I'm hoping for a slow start or an early season/camp injury so I can buy low on the guy in my dyno's.

 

[Jeff Tefertiller]

I see a big improvement. The rookie season is a huge adjustment for the tight ends, probably more than any position. I definitely can see Miller crack the top ten at his position.

52 receptions, 670 yards, 6 TDs.

 

[Polyethylene Bag]

I see a big improvement. The rookie season is a huge adjustment for the tight ends, probably more than any position. I definitely can see Miller crack the top ten at his position. 52 receptions, 670 yards, 6 TDs.

I'm thinking in the ballpark of 50/700/6 as well. I was really impressed with this kid last year and I think he'll be in the top 10 in '09 at the very latest.

 

[rzrback77]

Zach Miller is one of my favorite TE targets for drafts in 08. He had a successful rookie campaign on a team that had a miserable passing attack. He should continue the chemistry developed late last year with his young (same draft class) QB Jamarcus Russell. I look for the two of them to provide value from where they will be drafted based on their youth and also the fact that they are on the Raiders.

Z Miller 105 targets 65 receptions for 630 yards and 6 TDs

typo edit on targets

 

[gianmarco]

My ONLY issue with Zach Miller is the following (with the disclaimer that this is based STRICTLY on #'s and game logs, not how he's looked):

His game log is VERY pedestrian with the exception of the last week when he had 8/84. Otherwise, he was catching 2-4 balls for 30-40 yds every week. He got bye week fill-in #'s on a consistent regular basis (which most bye week fill-in TE's don't do). Thus, his end of year #'s were decent but his weekly scoring simply wasn't very good.

Now, again, this is only by the #'s, I know he was a rookie, I know it improved with Russell, and I know he's talented. It's just a matter of whether or not the Raiders are ever going to use the TE's enough to make him worthy of a top 10 TE with good upside. Just gives a little reason to hesitate. I still like him and went after him, I'm just saying.............

 

[Polyethylene Bag]

My ONLY issue with Zach Miller is the following (with the disclaimer that this is based STRICTLY on #'s and game logs, not how he's looked):His game log is VERY pedestrian with the exception of the last week when he had 8/84. Otherwise, he was catching 2-4 balls for 30-40 yds every week. He got bye week fill-in #'s on a consistent regular basis (which most bye week fill-in TE's don't do). Thus, his end of year #'s were decent but his weekly scoring simply wasn't very good.Now, again, this is only by the #'s, I know he was a rookie, I know it improved with Russell, and I know he's talented. It's just a matter of whether or not the Raiders are ever going to use the TE's enough to make him worthy of a top 10 TE with good upside. Just gives a little reason to hesitate. I still like him and went after him, I'm just saying.............

I think the key point there is that this was his rookie year. He picked it up at the end with Russell at the healm and that screams of potential to me.

 

[gianmarco]

My ONLY issue with Zach Miller is the following (with the disclaimer that this is based STRICTLY on #'s and game logs, not how he's looked):His game log is VERY pedestrian with the exception of the last week when he had 8/84. Otherwise, he was catching 2-4 balls for 30-40 yds every week. He got bye week fill-in #'s on a consistent regular basis (which most bye week fill-in TE's don't do). Thus, his end of year #'s were decent but his weekly scoring simply wasn't very good.Now, again, this is only by the #'s, I know he was a rookie, I know it improved with Russell, and I know he's talented. It's just a matter of whether or not the Raiders are ever going to use the TE's enough to make him worthy of a top 10 TE with good upside. Just gives a little reason to hesitate. I still like him and went after him, I'm just saying.............

I think the key point there is that this was his rookie year. He picked it up at the end with Russell at the healm and that screams of potential to me.

Well, aside from him being a rookie, it's also just a "numbers" evaluation strictly from looking at a game log. That is NOT the best way to judge how a player is going to do. And I hope people realize that with my post above. However, I also don't think it should be ignored and it was a trend that did not change until the very last week of the year. I just personally don't like TE's that go for 3/30 every week and finish the year with 50 catches/500 yds/4-5 TDs. The end of year #'s look good, but 3/30 with an occasional TD is worthless to me. I'd rather have a guy that has an occasional 8/90 games with a bunch of clunkers mixed in at the TE spot. I can pick up ANYONE and get 3/30. I personally prefer TE's capable of occasional big games (like Miller's last game of the year). That's all I meant by my post above.

 

[massraider]

My ONLY issue with Zach Miller is the following (with the disclaimer that this is based STRICTLY on #'s and game logs, not how he's looked):

His game log is VERY pedestrian with the exception of the last week when he had 8/84. Otherwise, he was catching 2-4 balls for 30-40 yds every week. He got bye week fill-in #'s on a consistent regular basis (which most bye week fill-in TE's don't do). Thus, his end of year #'s were decent but his weekly scoring simply wasn't very good.

Now, again, this is only by the #'s, I know he was a rookie, I know it improved with Russell, and I know he's talented. It's just a matter of whether or not the Raiders are ever going to use the TE's enough to make him worthy of a top 10 TE with good upside. Just gives a little reason to hesitate. I still like him and went after him, I'm just saying.............

I think the key point there is that this was his rookie year. He picked it up at the end with Russell at the healm and that screams of potential to me.

Well, aside from him being a rookie, it's also just a "numbers" evaluation strictly from looking at a game log. That is NOT the best way to judge how a player is going to do. And I hope people realize that with my post above. However, I also don't think it should be ignored and it was a trend that did not change until the very last week of the year. I just personally don't like TE's that go for 3/30 every week and finish the year with 50 catches/500 yds/4-5 TDs. The end of year #'s look good, but 3/30 with an occasional TD is worthless to me. I'd rather have a guy that has an occasional 8/90 games with a bunch of clunkers mixed in at the TE spot. I can pick up ANYONE and get 3/30. I personally prefer TE's capable of occasional big games (like Miller's last game of the year). That's all I meant by my post above.

No, I see what you're saying. And I think the cat is out of the bag with Miller a bit. I think he may run the risk of becoming such a sleeper that he becomes overrated, although I think the fact that he's on the Raiders will temper the enthusiasm a bit.

I think the ideal situation for the Raiders is Walker establishing his form, a big question, McFadden having an impact in the passing game, and Miller moving the chains. But there's some things in Miller's favor:

1. Kiffin will want to control the clock. Short passes, with the occasional play action bomb to keep the D honest. But he will look short first, and Miller could easily become Russell's security blanket. One or two games at the end of the year is too small a sample size to say for sure, and there was no DMC and Javon on that team. But it is promising, at least. One little tidbit: At the recent OTA's, Kiffin had Russell throwing ZERO downfield passes. Everything was short and intermediate.

2..While Miller is young, he isn't raw. One of the positives noted in every scouting report I saw, was that he is comfortable in the passing game. And that bore itself out in games. He took the starting job right away, and just looks comfortable out there. Settles into the zones, doesn't fight the ball, etc. Frankly, they didn't look his way enough.

3. The wideouts are a question mark. Curry is coming off another surgery, Dre Carter did little in Carolina, and Javon......well, everyone knows the risk. I don't think too many people would be surprised if McFadden and Miller were the top two receivers for Oakland this year.

I would be a lot more hot for Miller in a PPR league, as I doubt the offense will be high-powered enough to allow him to score an inordinate amount of TDs. But I do think several circumstances could converge that could allow him to post some serious reception numbers.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Zach Miller had a decent rookie season and has room for improvement. Miller should be on some people's sleeper list when drafting a back up tight end in many leagues.

50 receptions, 500 yards and 4 td's

 

[NCPanthersFan]

He is pretty much invisible for the past three weeks, stats wise - even being 3rd on the targets list. Is this kid even worth a roster spot in 10 or 12 team leagues anymore?

 

[packersfan]

He is pretty much invisible for the past three weeks, stats wise - even being 3rd on the targets list. Is this kid even worth a roster spot in 10 or 12 team leagues anymore?

I don't think so. There are probably 20 TEs I'd rather start each week than Miller. Those of us who bought into the Miller hype made a gigantic mistake. I cut ties with him last week which was one week too long.

 

[3C's]

dropped him and picked up Jeramy Stevens. I read that Miller has spent a lot of time helping block so he's not even running a lot of routes.

 

[NCPanthersFan]

He is pretty much invisible for the past three weeks, stats wise - even being 3rd on the targets list. Is this kid even worth a roster spot in 10 or 12 team leagues anymore?

I don't think so. There are probably 20 TEs I'd rather start each week than Miller. Those of us who bought into the Miller hype made a gigantic mistake. I cut ties with him last week which was one week too long.

dropped him and picked up Jeramy Stevens. I read that Miller has spent a lot of time helping block so he's not even running a lot of routes.

Yep. I feel like I stepped into a gigantic mess of my own making. I was so sure I could get 3 or 4 points a week with upside out of this kid.

 

[rawdog]

Anything change with James Lofton as the coach?

 

[JamesTheScot]

I've got him in my dynasty. I still think he has too much potential to cut loose. I'll admit I did not expect the QB play to be this bad. Not sure if the change at HC will suddenly result in better production from Russell so I may be stashing him behind Carlson and Rosario.

...Yeah, it's that bad.