Players I Won't Be Drafting This Year. (1 Viewer)

[Beats by Ray]

I will be focusing on single players, one at time, explaining why I will not have them on my team in 2015. I will give a few reasons why I expect a slump or feel the ADP is too high. Feel free to tell me why I am wrong or add your own players to the list!

First up...

Get in there Sammy "Sophomore Slump" Watkins

Who I would rather have near his ADP:

Jarvis Landry

Golden Tate

Martavis Bryant.

Why I won't be drafting his this year, in order of most concerning:

1. Coaching change.

The 2nd year receiver gets a new offensive system to learn. On top of that, unfortunately it is a Rex Ryan ground and pound offense.

2. Off season moves.

Specifically Percy Harvin. Harvin doesn't seem to coexists where he plays. Based on his offseason rants, he will be demanding the ball. One word comes to mind when I think Harvin: toxic.

Charles Clay: The upgrade at TE may reduce his Red Zone targets.

Lesean McCoy: This move didn't necessarily hurt Watkins but the ground and pound system does.

3. QB situation.

How high can his ceiling really be with EJ Manuel and Matt Cassel spreading the ball between him and Harvin?

4 Off season hip surgery.

We don't know much about the hip surgery but offseason lower body surgery... Not ever a good thing.

5. Revis Island.

Watkins has booked 2 trips to Revis Island this year. A place where he had 5 catches and 84 yards last year....over 2 games. His will be seeing Revis twice, Brent Grimes twice, and Vontae Davis once.

 

[Sabertooth]

I started reading your thread and almost stopped. I kept going and you make some very valid arguments. Are Landry who has to face the Bills twice also Revis twice, and Bryant (one trick pony) really close to his ADP? If so I need to start shopping Bryant.

 

[Beats by Ray]

Are Landry who has to face the Bills twice also Revis twice, and Bryant (one trick pony) really close to his ADP?

No their ADPs aren't that close but I have Watkins dropped way down, I'd rather have Bryant. I think Bryant could take a step forward this year with Wheaton fading. Tate is closest to his ADP.

I think Landry could be better in PPR with the short throwing Tannehill. I could be wrong, but I do know I won't be drafting Sammy Watkins. Who will you be avoiding ?

 

[msommer]

Anyone picked before my pick I'm definitely not taking

 

[georg013]

Anyone picked before my pick I'm definitely not taking

I would also like to add that I won't be taking any retired players.

 

[Donnybrook]

TJ Yeldon

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp.php?format=ppr&year=2015&teams=12&view=graph&pos=all

this is probably all nonsense, but it's some kind of actual data, I guess

12 team ppr redraft

Data from 992 mock drafts between March 28, 2015 and April 11, 2015

47 4.08 Golden Tate

49 5.01 Sammy Watkins

52 5.03 Jarvis Landry

63 6.01 Martavis Bryant

64 6.01 Keenan Allen

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

I won't be drafting lacy

 

[KellysHeroes]

Jimmy Graham, I think hes going to go way too high

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

To the original poster.

-All valid arguments. As a Watkins owner I am hoping that his skill is good enough to over come some of those negatives you have pointed out. If you turn on the tape Watkins was open a lot last year, and Orton could not get him the ball. The qb situation will likely be similar to last year with either Cassell or Manuel under center but there are some other factors that will be at play that could help Watkins this year.

-Watkins played hurt much of last year and has youth on his side so I am not too fearful when you are referring to the surgery.

-Watkins is in year 2 and as a young player you would tend to side with him taking a step up in his play and production.

-The Bills have a new offense with a new coordinator so it makes everything a big question mark at the present time however we can look at Roman's past history as a starting point.

Here is my take:

1) Watkins was targeted 128 times last year. I think that will change this year. I think he is going to get at least 145 plus targets as the lead receiving guy on this team.

2) Rex is a ground and pound coach no doubt, but Greg Roman (offensive coordinator) will hopefully get Watkins involved a lot in this offense. Over the last 3 years in San Francisco Roman's leading Wr's were as follows: 2012 Crabtree had an 85 catch 1100 yard 9 td season, 2013 Boldin had an 85 catch 1179 yard 7 td season, and 2014 Boldin had an 83 catch 1065 yard and 5 td season.

3) Watkins has a high ceiling which makes him intriguing in fantasy and his floor should still be some where in the range of the other leading WR's in Roman's system. Therefore his floor is looking like 78 receptions for 1050 yards and 6 tds. If things go better this year how high can Watkins stats get?

 

[ol blues]

Interesting that Watkins is the first DND listed. To me there's a lot in Watkins to like: an always open receiver with tremendous skills who has an ADP far removed from his skill level. The concern with the offensive scheme is a reasonable one, but we don't know how much of the 9rs scheme was Roman and how much was Harbaugh and, in any event, as was pointed out by a prior poster, there was plenty of room even in the 9rs scheme for WRs with lesser talents to post 80 catch, 1K yard seasons. Even the QB comparison, while certainly not great, isn't all that daunting: Kaep vs Manuel or Cassel? Meh! Not a fan of any of them but each has the capacity to feed an 80/1K WR.

I tend to draft only elite WRs, fliers, and those with the prospect if everything falls together of threatening WR1 production and I doubt Watkins has WR1 potential in 2015, but for those looking for a likely solid WR2 Watkins is a reasonable pick.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

well, according to that bs draft data he's about the 20th wr taken, and he'd only need to pimp his stats up about 10/200 in his second year to get to that 20th wr level in ppg in my league --- like a deandre hopkins level.

 

[cstu]

First up...

Get in there Sammy "Sophomore Slump" Watkins

He didn't even have a good rookie year.

 

[Phenomena]

First up...

Get in there Sammy "Sophomore Slump" Watkins

He didn't even have a good rookie year.

65/982/6 is pretty good for a rookie WR. Other players have set the bar high recently, but in the modern era that's pretty good. Nobody is going to come out and blow up 1300 yards as a rookie unless they have a great QB and/or came into the league pro-ready.

 

[spider321]

Josh Gordon

 

[cstu]

First up...

Get in there Sammy "Sophomore Slump" Watkins

He didn't even have a good rookie year.

65/982/6 is pretty good for a rookie WR. Other players have set the bar high recently, but in the modern era that's pretty good. Nobody is going to come out and blow up 1300 yards as a rookie unless they have a great QB and/or came into the league pro-ready.

I was referring mainly to his 50.8% catch rate. His numbers look good but he wasn't very efficient - certainly not a candidate for a 'sophomore slump'.

 

[Freelove]

First up...

Get in there Sammy "Sophomore Slump" Watkins

He didn't even have a good rookie year.

65/982/6 is pretty good for a rookie WR. Other players have set the bar high recently, but in the modern era that's pretty good. Nobody is going to come out and blow up 1300 yards as a rookie unless they have a great QB and/or came into the league pro-ready.

I was referring mainly to his 50.8% catch rate. His numbers look good but he wasn't very efficient - certainly not a candidate for a 'sophomore slump'.

People need to get the hell away from PFF. Sammy's "catch rate" was just fine, so far as it had anything to do with his performance. A low CR can be a product of lots of things, including having no targets on the team anywhere near as dangerous or respected as you, or having ####ty quarterbacks, or in Sammy's case, both (plus a host more).

Pro Football Focus is poison. Those guys are clearly committed to watching the game and playing accountant for every snap in the league. But they rarely if ever have a clue how to put the boxes they're ticking into context, and then those numbers get tossed around in here like they have meaning independent of circumstance.

Sammy played fine. But every time he ventured more than about ten yards downfield, he was saddled with the top corner, the help safety, and a QB without a prayer of threading a needle at that distance. The numbers may have justified a shift in offensive philosophy away from a high usage rate for him, but that's a coaching problem, not a Sammy problem. If he plays equally well with even slightly better QB'ing and Percy Harvin in the mix, his efficiency will climb whether he improves or not.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Pro Football Focus is poison. Those guys are clearly committed to watching the game and playing accountant for every snap in the league.

that's kind of an odd attitude coming from a fantasy football player on a fantasy football board

btw, nobody has to subscribe to pff for receptions and target numbers -- those are fairly widely distributed

 

[Beats by Ray]

Back to the thread topic... Who else won't you be drafting and why?

 

[cstu]

I was referring mainly to his 50.8% catch rate. His numbers look good but he wasn't very efficient - certainly not a candidate for a 'sophomore slump'.

People need to get the hell away from PFF. Sammy's "catch rate" was just fine, so far as it had anything to do with his performance. A low CR can be a product of lots of things, including having no targets on the team anywhere near as dangerous or respected as you, or having ####ty quarterbacks, or in Sammy's case, both (plus a host more).

Pro Football Focus is poison. Those guys are clearly committed to watching the game and playing accountant for every snap in the league. But they rarely if ever have a clue how to put the boxes they're ticking into context, and then those numbers get tossed around in here like they have meaning independent of circumstance.

Sammy played fine. But every time he ventured more than about ten yards downfield, he was saddled with the top corner, the help safety, and a QB without a prayer of threading a needle at that distance. The numbers may have justified a shift in offensive philosophy away from a high usage rate for him, but that's a coaching problem, not a Sammy problem. If he plays equally well with even slightly better QB'ing and Percy Harvin in the mix, his efficiency will climb whether he improves or not.

The funny thing is I'm defending him. Of course the catch rate isn't his fault but given all of the issues you mentioned I don't think he has anywhere to go but up.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

I will be focusing on single players, one at time, explaining why I will not have them on my team in 2015. I will give a few reasons why I expect a slump or feel the ADP is too high. Feel free to tell me why I am wrong or add your own players to the list!

First up...

Get in there Sammy "Sophomore Slump" Watkins

Who I would rather have near his ADP:

Jarvis Landry

Golden Tate

Martavis Bryant.

Why I won't be drafting his this year, in order or most concerning:

1. Coaching change.

The 2nd year receiver gets a new offensive system to learn. On top of that, unfortunately it is a Rex Ryan ground and pound offense.

2. Off season moves.

Specifically Percy Harvin. Harvin doesn't seem to coexists where he plays. Based on his offseason rants, he will be demanding the ball. One word comes to mind when I think Harvin: toxic.

Charles Clay: The upgrade at TE may reduce his Red Zone targets.

Lesean McCoy: This move didn't necessarily hurt Watkins but the ground and pound system does.

3. QB situation.

How high can his ceiling really be with EJ Manuel and Matt Cassel spreading the ball between him and Harvin?

4 Off season hip surgery.

We don't know much about the hip surgery but offseason lower body surgery... Not ever a good thing.

5. Revis Island.

Watkins has booked 2 trips to Revis Island this year. A place where he had 5 catches and 84 yards last year....over 2 games. His will be seeing Revis twice, Brent Grimes twice, and Vontae Davis once.

Bravo. Well written post.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

First up...

Get in there Sammy "Sophomore Slump" Watkins

He didn't even have a good rookie year.

65/982/6 is pretty good for a rookie WR. Other players have set the bar high recently, but in the modern era that's pretty good. Nobody is going to come out and blow up 1300 yards as a rookie unless they have a great QB and/or came into the league pro-ready.

I was referring mainly to his 50.8% catch rate. His numbers look good but he wasn't very efficient - certainly not a candidate for a 'sophomore slump'.

Gee, I can't imagine why anyone would miss that nuance and depth of explanation in your initial post.

 

[pizzatyme]

For me, in redraft-type leagues, I'm avoiding AJ Green.

My factors are:

2nd year development of Hill/Gio

Return of Eifert

Return of Marvin Jones

Andy Daulton

Marvin Lewis

Top 5 talent with too many red flags for me.

 

[Bri]

Jake Locker

 

[frigid5]

For me, in redraft-type leagues, I'm avoiding AJ Green.

My factors are:

2nd year development of Hill/Gio

Return of Eifert

Return of Marvin Jones

Andy Daulton

Marvin Lewis

Top 5 talent with too many red flags for me.

Green has gone in the late 2nd round in the few mocks I've been a part of. That seems about right to me.

I don't understand how most of the factors you listed are negatives.

The player I (most likely) won't be drafting is Justin Forsett. Too many other options I like better in the late 3rd / 4th round.

 

[FUBAR]

For me, in redraft-type leagues, I'm avoiding AJ Green.

My factors are:

2nd year development of Hill/Gio

Return of Eifert

Return of Marvin Jones

Andy Daulton

Marvin Lewis

Top 5 talent with too many red flags for me.

Green has gone in the late 2nd round in the few mocks I've been a part of. That seems about right to me. I don't understand how most of the factors you listed are negatives.

The player I (most likely) won't be drafting is Justin Forsett. Too many other options I like better in the late 3rd / 4th round.

Dalton isn't good but he's been fine for green.

on watkins, maybe I'm wrong but if Manuel is starting I like his potential to do better than last year with Orton. The only real question imo is how the bills offense distributes the ball with more weapons than their QB's ability to utilize them. I think I'll not get watkins as he's likely to go higher than I'd take him In redraft.

I do think I'll end up with their qbs as late flyers in a few leagues.

 

[Sabertooth]

For me, in redraft-type leagues, I'm avoiding AJ Green.

My factors are:

2nd year development of Hill/Gio

Return of Eifert

Return of Marvin Jones

Andy Daulton

Marvin Lewis

Top 5 talent with too many red flags for me.

He's had most of those factors his whole career. Aj is the alpha dog, far better than anyone you mentioned.

 

[Sabertooth]

Me I'm avoiding Jeremy Hill. I had him last year and I was nervous starting him every week. He's going to go too high for my liking.

 

[unckeyherb]

I won't be drafting lacy

The sky is blue. Water is wet.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Me I'm avoiding Jeremy Hill. I had him last year and I was nervous starting him every week. He's going to go too high for my liking.

that decision will haunt you the rest of your days

The player I (most likely) won't be drafting is Justin Forsett. Too many other options I like better in the late 3rd / 4th round.

assuming they don't draft a replacement --- you don't think he'll catch 80 balls with trestman?

 

[Soulfly3]

ODB (with a caveat)

there is no way in redraft Im taking him as one of the first 3 WRs... which it seems he's just become Mr WR1

So if I have an earlyish pick, he won't be on my team.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

ODB (with a caveat)

there is no way in redraft Im taking him as one of the first 3 WRs... which it seems he's just become Mr WR1

So if I have an earlyish pick, he won't be on my team.

what's the earliest pick you'd use on him, and which wr would you take before him?

 

[Soulfly3]

ODB (with a caveat)

there is no way in redraft Im taking him as one of the first 3 WRs... which it seems he's just become Mr WR1

So if I have an earlyish pick, he won't be on my team.

what's the earliest pick you'd use on him, and which wr would you take before him?

I'd take Antonio Brown, Dez, Demariyus and probably even Julio before him.

So, he'd be my WR5

 

[FUBAR]

Me I'm avoiding Jeremy Hill. I had him last year and I was nervous starting him every week. He's going to go too high for my liking.

that decision will haunt you the rest of your days

Haunt? Pretty sure he'll be fine with anderson, miller or a wr instead. Hill is going in the 2nd, probably worth it but other options do exist there

 

[Bri]

ODB (with a caveat)

there is no way in redraft Im taking him as one of the first 3 WRs... which it seems he's just become Mr WR1

So if I have an earlyish pick, he won't be on my team.

what's the earliest pick you'd use on him, and which wr would you take before him?

I know this was to him but here's my opinion.

I am way too nervous of a second year player being my first pick. Round 1 feels like "certain" successes and then he's amidst them. Antonio has been gold and I don't remember him going in round 1. I think he was late 2 last year.

The length he was out with a hammy actually bugs me still. A little. Most wideouts seem to get hurt and be questionable at some point. Once he got going, he never sat. I get that, but I guess I'm saying in my mind I haven't determined if he's an injury risk for ff. We all have this gut feel about some players and he's messing up my radar where I can't decide.

Cruz was Eli's favorite and Cruz has caught so many bad throws from Eli where there's definite trust and faith there. I have no idea if Cruz will be healthy and the same, in April assuming he plays well, I haven't yet made my gut call as to how this affects ODB's stats. The way people talk, this might just make me grab Cruz super late.

ODB is the reason I was fine when Calvin sat and when AJ Green sat/barely played last year. He was my backup that came through for me on two teams, came through huge. I didn't have Julio but he seemed similar. For me, this makes Antonio look like a gem. The stats are all wonderful for these stud WRs. 3 years ago Brown missed a few games. That's it.

As FF seems to shift to several WRs going in round one and away from the stud RB tradition, I've been progressively nervous of their injuries. I don't think but one team, in any league I was in, went RB RB to start the draft.

In the previous 20? years I would have been elated to get any of these four WRs in round three or late two. If we're drafting 6-10 WRs in the first fifteen or so picks, the injuries become magnified for me. Lack of experience, Cruz....I see Antonio as safe n sound

 

[12punch]

I think the shift in positional drafting start is the most interesting thing in all this.

BTW, you have to take somebody in the first - why would injuries worry you on a wr anymore than rb?

 

[Bri]

I think the shift in positional drafting start is the most interesting thing in all this.

BTW, you have to take somebody in the first - why would injuries worry you on a we anymore than rb?

I haven't figured that out.

I think it has to do with taking a RB for so long and that working out

 

[FUBAR]

pretty sure unless I get the top pick I'm not taking Gronk this year.

 

[VarsityBlues123]

I won't be drafting lacy

The sky is blue. Water is wet.

i try to stay away from proven commodities during the draft too. who needs them is what i always say.

 

[12punch]

I won't be drafting lacy

The sky is blue. Water is wet.

i try to stay away from proven commodities during the draft too. who needs them is what i always say.

I've actually heard of ppl trying to actively unload him

 

[FlapJacks]

First up...

Get in there Sammy "Sophomore Slump" Watkins

He didn't even have a good rookie year.

65/982/6 is pretty good for a rookie WR. Other players have set the bar high recently, but in the modern era that's pretty good. Nobody is going to come out and blow up 1300 yards as a rookie unless they have a great QB and/or came into the league pro-ready.

I was referring mainly to his 50.8% catch rate. His numbers look good but he wasn't very efficient - certainly not a candidate for a 'sophomore slump'.

50 percent is not that bad considering the QB situation...

 

[VarsityBlues123]

I won't be drafting lacy

The sky is blue. Water is wet.

i try to stay away from proven commodities during the draft too. who needs them is what i always say.

I've actually heard of ppl trying to actively unload him

why would someone try to unload a young rb on an elite offense who catches passes and gets the vast majority of carries? isnt the object to try to win the game thats the type of player who helps with that.

 

[FF Ninja]

To the original poster.

-All valid arguments. As a Watkins owner I am hoping that his skill is good enough to over come some of those negatives you have pointed out. If you turn on the tape Watkins was open a lot last year, and Orton could not get him the ball. The qb situation will likely be similar to last year with either Cassell or Manuel under center but there are some other factors that will be at play that could help Watkins this year.

-Watkins played hurt much of last year and has youth on his side so I am not too fearful when you are referring to the surgery.

-Watkins is in year 2 and as a young player you would tend to side with him taking a step up in his play and production.

-The Bills have a new offense with a new coordinator so it makes everything a big question mark at the present time however we can look at Roman's past history as a starting point.

Here is my take:

1) Watkins was targeted 128 times last year. I think that will change this year. I think he is going to get at least 145 plus targets as the lead receiving guy on this team.

2) Rex is a ground and pound coach no doubt, but Greg Roman (offensive coordinator) will hopefully get Watkins involved a lot in this offense. Over the last 3 years in San Francisco Roman's leading Wr's were as follows: 2012 Crabtree had an 85 catch 1100 yard 9 td season, 2013 Boldin had an 85 catch 1179 yard 7 td season, and 2014 Boldin had an 83 catch 1065 yard and 5 td season.

3) Watkins has a high ceiling which makes him intriguing in fantasy and his floor should still be some where in the range of the other leading WR's in Roman's system. Therefore his floor is looking like 78 receptions for 1050 yards and 6 tds. If things go better this year how high can Watkins stats get?

This is crazy talk. 145 targets? What? We are talking about Greg Roman and Rex Ryan. Nobody gets 145 targets. There were a couple times in SF where one guy got close, but that was at the expense of everyone else. The most prolific Roman has ever been was last year when Boldin got 131 targets, Crabtree got 108, Davis got 50, and Stevie got 50. Now in Buffalo, they have a budding young player in Woods, they just brought in Harvin, they just paid Clay some serious cash to come here, and they've got Watkins. That's all you need to know to avoid this situation. Too many cooks.

Citing SF's leading WR is a bit silly, too. Kaep is known for his inability to read progressions and simply locking in on one guy. Unless Watkins is Kaepernick's #1 WR, don't waste your time comparing stats for SF's #1 WRs.

Everyone loves young players who are high draft picks, but be smart and read the situation. This one isn't conducive to receiving totals. Therefore, I agree with the OP. This is a player to ignore. I wouldn't be getting too excited about Landry, though, unless playing full point PPR. His YPR is atrocious and I see no hope of it changing much. I'd rather wait 2 round and get Stills. Out of the players the OP listed, I'd greatly prefer Tate. The only thing holding his ADP back is his TDs which are always a crapshoot with WRs, but in this case his TD/catch rate was way off his historical average.

 

[Shutout]

Agree on Sammy and ODB, for the reasons mentioned. Good stuff.

Probably DeMarco Murray for me, relative to price (similar to the ODB logic).

 

[VarsityBlues123]

To the original poster.

-All valid arguments. As a Watkins owner I am hoping that his skill is good enough to over come some of those negatives you have pointed out. If you turn on the tape Watkins was open a lot last year, and Orton could not get him the ball. The qb situation will likely be similar to last year with either Cassell or Manuel under center but there are some other factors that will be at play that could help Watkins this year.

-Watkins played hurt much of last year and has youth on his side so I am not too fearful when you are referring to the surgery.

-Watkins is in year 2 and as a young player you would tend to side with him taking a step up in his play and production.

-The Bills have a new offense with a new coordinator so it makes everything a big question mark at the present time however we can look at Roman's past history as a starting point.

Here is my take:

1) Watkins was targeted 128 times last year. I think that will change this year. I think he is going to get at least 145 plus targets as the lead receiving guy on this team.

2) Rex is a ground and pound coach no doubt, but Greg Roman (offensive coordinator) will hopefully get Watkins involved a lot in this offense. Over the last 3 years in San Francisco Roman's leading Wr's were as follows: 2012 Crabtree had an 85 catch 1100 yard 9 td season, 2013 Boldin had an 85 catch 1179 yard 7 td season, and 2014 Boldin had an 83 catch 1065 yard and 5 td season.

3) Watkins has a high ceiling which makes him intriguing in fantasy and his floor should still be some where in the range of the other leading WR's in Roman's system. Therefore his floor is looking like 78 receptions for 1050 yards and 6 tds. If things go better this year how high can Watkins stats get?

This is crazy talk. 145 targets? What? We are talking about Greg Roman and Rex Ryan. Nobody gets 145 targets. There were a couple times in SF where one guy got close, but that was at the expense of everyone else. The most prolific Roman has ever been was last year when Boldin got 131 targets, Crabtree got 108, Davis got 50, and Stevie got 50. Now in Buffalo, they have a budding young player in Woods, they just brought in Harvin, they just paid Clay some serious cash to come here, and they've got Watkins. That's all you need to know to avoid this situation. Too many cooks.

Citing SF's leading WR is a bit silly, too. Kaep is known for his inability to read progressions and simply locking in on one guy. Unless Watkins is Kaepernick's #1 WR, don't waste your time comparing stats for SF's #1 WRs.

Everyone loves young players who are high draft picks, but be smart and read the situation. This one isn't conducive to receiving totals. Therefore, I agree with the OP. This is a player to ignore. I wouldn't be getting too excited about Landry, though, unless playing full point PPR. His YPR is atrocious and I see no hope of it changing much. I'd rather wait 2 round and get Stills. Out of the players the OP listed, I'd greatly prefer Tate. The only thing holding his ADP back is his TDs which are always a crapshoot with WRs, but in this case his TD/catch rate was way off his historical average.

is anyone comfortable starting Watkins as a wr1? i dont think they are and when you take a wr with the first overall pick in rookie drafts thats what u better get year 2. more proof that top picks do not always give great reward.

 

[pizzatyme]

For me, in redraft-type leagues, I'm avoiding AJ Green.

My factors are:

2nd year development of Hill/Gio

Return of Eifert

Return of Marvin Jones

Andy Daulton

Marvin Lewis

Top 5 talent with too many red flags for me.

He's had most of those factors his whole career. Aj is the alpha dog, far better than anyone you mentioned.

He's never had 2 surging quality RBs entering their second years. He's never had a dominant-looking Marvin Jones coming back off of injury, and he's also never had an experienced Eifert coming back injury. If all of these guys come back and perform to expectations, it limits Green's effectiveness IMO. They won't have to force it to Green like they've done in the past.

 

[Shutout]

To the original poster.

-All valid arguments. As a Watkins owner I am hoping that his skill is good enough to over come some of those negatives you have pointed out. If you turn on the tape Watkins was open a lot last year, and Orton could not get him the ball. The qb situation will likely be similar to last year with either Cassell or Manuel under center but there are some other factors that will be at play that could help Watkins this year.

-Watkins played hurt much of last year and has youth on his side so I am not too fearful when you are referring to the surgery.

-Watkins is in year 2 and as a young player you would tend to side with him taking a step up in his play and production.

-The Bills have a new offense with a new coordinator so it makes everything a big question mark at the present time however we can look at Roman's past history as a starting point.

Here is my take:

1) Watkins was targeted 128 times last year. I think that will change this year. I think he is going to get at least 145 plus targets as the lead receiving guy on this team.

2) Rex is a ground and pound coach no doubt, but Greg Roman (offensive coordinator) will hopefully get Watkins involved a lot in this offense. Over the last 3 years in San Francisco Roman's leading Wr's were as follows: 2012 Crabtree had an 85 catch 1100 yard 9 td season, 2013 Boldin had an 85 catch 1179 yard 7 td season, and 2014 Boldin had an 83 catch 1065 yard and 5 td season.

3) Watkins has a high ceiling which makes him intriguing in fantasy and his floor should still be some where in the range of the other leading WR's in Roman's system. Therefore his floor is looking like 78 receptions for 1050 yards and 6 tds. If things go better this year how high can Watkins stats get?

This is crazy talk. 145 targets? What? We are talking about Greg Roman and Rex Ryan. Nobody gets 145 targets. There were a couple times in SF where one guy got close, but that was at the expense of everyone else. The most prolific Roman has ever been was last year when Boldin got 131 targets, Crabtree got 108, Davis got 50, and Stevie got 50. Now in Buffalo, they have a budding young player in Woods, they just brought in Harvin, they just paid Clay some serious cash to come here, and they've got Watkins. That's all you need to know to avoid this situation. Too many cooks.

Citing SF's leading WR is a bit silly, too. Kaep is known for his inability to read progressions and simply locking in on one guy. Unless Watkins is Kaepernick's #1 WR, don't waste your time comparing stats for SF's #1 WRs.

Everyone loves young players who are high draft picks, but be smart and read the situation. This one isn't conducive to receiving totals. Therefore, I agree with the OP. This is a player to ignore. I wouldn't be getting too excited about Landry, though, unless playing full point PPR. His YPR is atrocious and I see no hope of it changing much. I'd rather wait 2 round and get Stills. Out of the players the OP listed, I'd greatly prefer Tate. The only thing holding his ADP back is his TDs which are always a crapshoot with WRs, but in this case his TD/catch rate was way off his historical average.

is anyone comfortable starting Watkins as a wr1? i dont think they are and when you take a wr with the first overall pick in rookie drafts thats what u better get year 2. more proof that top picks do not always give great reward.

I don't think anyone would LOVE the idea of him as your clear WR1. They may take it and swallow it based on the "upside", but they probably don't love the idea.

But that's nothing new: We saw last year IMMEDIATELY, as soon as he went to the bills, many, many people were saying then that this landing spot anchored him. Of course, in the moment, when all you hear about for half a year was Watkins and Evans, it was easy for people to say "the cream rises..." and all that.

But the reality of this situation is to me, he is no more attractive in fantasy than, say Deandre Hopkins or Mike Wallace (which is A LOT for me to say) right now. He's just simply not going to get 150 targets and be a center piece on this team that lacks upper level QB and O-line play.

We need to rip the rose colored glasses from our faces here, people. This is clear as can be: This coaching staff is going to try to dominate on defense (as they should be able to do with this group) and then they are going to be a methodical ground-based, short passing game attack team. Guys like Watkins and Calvin, and Julio and Beckham (these guys that are explosive talents and put up monster fantasy games) are guys that both have the unique talent AND have generally higher opportunities because they don't have good defenses and they don't have great supporting talent. That's not the case with Watkins.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

To the original poster.

-All valid arguments. As a Watkins owner I am hoping that his skill is good enough to over come some of those negatives you have pointed out. If you turn on the tape Watkins was open a lot last year, and Orton could not get him the ball. The qb situation will likely be similar to last year with either Cassell or Manuel under center but there are some other factors that will be at play that could help Watkins this year.

-Watkins played hurt much of last year and has youth on his side so I am not too fearful when you are referring to the surgery.

-Watkins is in year 2 and as a young player you would tend to side with him taking a step up in his play and production.

-The Bills have a new offense with a new coordinator so it makes everything a big question mark at the present time however we can look at Roman's past history as a starting point.

Here is my take:

1) Watkins was targeted 128 times last year. I think that will change this year. I think he is going to get at least 145 plus targets as the lead receiving guy on this team.

2) Rex is a ground and pound coach no doubt, but Greg Roman (offensive coordinator) will hopefully get Watkins involved a lot in this offense. Over the last 3 years in San Francisco Roman's leading Wr's were as follows: 2012 Crabtree had an 85 catch 1100 yard 9 td season, 2013 Boldin had an 85 catch 1179 yard 7 td season, and 2014 Boldin had an 83 catch 1065 yard and 5 td season.

3) Watkins has a high ceiling which makes him intriguing in fantasy and his floor should still be some where in the range of the other leading WR's in Roman's system. Therefore his floor is looking like 78 receptions for 1050 yards and 6 tds. If things go better this year how high can Watkins stats get?

This is crazy talk. 145 targets? What? We are talking about Greg Roman and Rex Ryan. Nobody gets 145 targets. There were a couple times in SF where one guy got close, but that was at the expense of everyone else. The most prolific Roman has ever been was last year when Boldin got 131 targets, Crabtree got 108, Davis got 50, and Stevie got 50. Now in Buffalo, they have a budding young player in Woods, they just brought in Harvin, they just paid Clay some serious cash to come here, and they've got Watkins. That's all you need to know to avoid this situation. Too many cooks.

Citing SF's leading WR is a bit silly, too. Kaep is known for his inability to read progressions and simply locking in on one guy. Unless Watkins is Kaepernick's #1 WR, don't waste your time comparing stats for SF's #1 WRs.

Everyone loves young players who are high draft picks, but be smart and read the situation. This one isn't conducive to receiving totals. Therefore, I agree with the OP. This is a player to ignore. I wouldn't be getting too excited about Landry, though, unless playing full point PPR. His YPR is atrocious and I see no hope of it changing much. I'd rather wait 2 round and get Stills. Out of the players the OP listed, I'd greatly prefer Tate. The only thing holding his ADP back is his TDs which are always a crapshoot with WRs, but in this case his TD/catch rate was way off his historical average.

I am not saying that Buffalo is going to morph into this high octane passing team. Rex will want to run the ball a ton, but that does not mean a team can't feed their number 1 receiving option.

San Fran with Roman as the OC was 29th in passing attempts last year at 487 attempts. The Jets with Rex Ryan last year threw the ball 498 attempts good for 27th in the NFL. So if the Bills throw the ball even less than those marks let's say 476 times which would have put them at 31st in the NFL last year tied with Dallas for 2nd worst in the league then how many of those targets do you see going to Watkins?

The leading receiver on San Fran was Boldin who had 131 targets as a 34 year old WR. The leading WR on the Jets was Decker who had 113 targets however he did not play in one game so had he played and got his average of 7 targets a week he would have had 120 targets.

Do you not think Watkins will at least get 130 plus targets? Teams that have players as good as Watkins as their WR 1 are easily in the 140 plus range hence why I have him projected there. Watkins as a rookie had 128 targets. Different coaches now and different system but I don't see it as a stretch for Watkins to average 1 more target a week in his sophomore year to get him to 140 targets.

Watkins >>>> 34 year old Boldin and Decker as well for the record.

 

[FF Ninja]

To the original poster.

-All valid arguments. As a Watkins owner I am hoping that his skill is good enough to over come some of those negatives you have pointed out. If you turn on the tape Watkins was open a lot last year, and Orton could not get him the ball. The qb situation will likely be similar to last year with either Cassell or Manuel under center but there are some other factors that will be at play that could help Watkins this year.

-Watkins played hurt much of last year and has youth on his side so I am not too fearful when you are referring to the surgery.

-Watkins is in year 2 and as a young player you would tend to side with him taking a step up in his play and production.

-The Bills have a new offense with a new coordinator so it makes everything a big question mark at the present time however we can look at Roman's past history as a starting point.

Here is my take:

1) Watkins was targeted 128 times last year. I think that will change this year. I think he is going to get at least 145 plus targets as the lead receiving guy on this team.

2) Rex is a ground and pound coach no doubt, but Greg Roman (offensive coordinator) will hopefully get Watkins involved a lot in this offense. Over the last 3 years in San Francisco Roman's leading Wr's were as follows: 2012 Crabtree had an 85 catch 1100 yard 9 td season, 2013 Boldin had an 85 catch 1179 yard 7 td season, and 2014 Boldin had an 83 catch 1065 yard and 5 td season.

3) Watkins has a high ceiling which makes him intriguing in fantasy and his floor should still be some where in the range of the other leading WR's in Roman's system. Therefore his floor is looking like 78 receptions for 1050 yards and 6 tds. If things go better this year how high can Watkins stats get?

This is crazy talk. 145 targets? What? We are talking about Greg Roman and Rex Ryan. Nobody gets 145 targets. There were a couple times in SF where one guy got close, but that was at the expense of everyone else. The most prolific Roman has ever been was last year when Boldin got 131 targets, Crabtree got 108, Davis got 50, and Stevie got 50. Now in Buffalo, they have a budding young player in Woods, they just brought in Harvin, they just paid Clay some serious cash to come here, and they've got Watkins. That's all you need to know to avoid this situation. Too many cooks.

Citing SF's leading WR is a bit silly, too. Kaep is known for his inability to read progressions and simply locking in on one guy. Unless Watkins is Kaepernick's #1 WR, don't waste your time comparing stats for SF's #1 WRs.

Everyone loves young players who are high draft picks, but be smart and read the situation. This one isn't conducive to receiving totals. Therefore, I agree with the OP. This is a player to ignore. I wouldn't be getting too excited about Landry, though, unless playing full point PPR. His YPR is atrocious and I see no hope of it changing much. I'd rather wait 2 round and get Stills. Out of the players the OP listed, I'd greatly prefer Tate. The only thing holding his ADP back is his TDs which are always a crapshoot with WRs, but in this case his TD/catch rate was way off his historical average.

I am not saying that Buffalo is going to morph into this high octane passing team. Rex will want to run the ball a ton, but that does not mean a team can't feed their number 1 receiving option.

San Fran with Roman as the OC was 29th in passing attempts last year at 487 attempts. The Jets with Rex Ryan last year threw the ball 498 attempts good for 27th in the NFL. So if the Bills throw the ball even less than those marks let's say 476 times which would have put them at 31st in the NFL last year tied with Dallas for 2nd worst in the league then how many of those targets do you see going to Watkins?

The leading receiver on San Fran was Boldin who had 131 targets as a 34 year old WR. The leading WR on the Jets was Decker who had 113 targets however he did not play in one game so had he played and got his average of 7 targets a week he would have had 120 targets.

Do you not think Watkins will at least get 130 plus targets? Teams that have players as good as Watkins as their WR 1 are easily in the 140 plus range hence why I have him projected there. Watkins as a rookie had 128 targets. Different coaches now and different system but I don't see it as a stretch for Watkins to average 1 more target a week in his sophomore year to get him to 140 targets.

Watkins >>>> 34 year old Boldin and Decker as well for the record.

Ok, clearly I didn't tell you what you wanted to hear so you just said the same spiel again and expect me to give you the reply you want. That's not going to happen. Kaepernick honed in on Boldin last year. That doesn't mean the QB in Buffalo is going to hone in on Watkins. But regardless, for Boldin to achieve those targets, SF basically ignored the TE and did not utilize the 3rd WR. Do you expect them to pay Clay all that money and only throw him the ball 50 times? Do you think they brought Harvin into the mix to only give him 100 targets? You think Woods will only see 50 targets? Harvin, Woods, Clay, and Watkins are going to have to split a very small pie. One of them may emerge, but in all likelihood, they will each underperform their ADP.

Also, Decker is very undervalued. Watkins would do well to be as good as Decker one day. He's not there yet.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

To the original poster.

-All valid arguments. As a Watkins owner I am hoping that his skill is good enough to over come some of those negatives you have pointed out. If you turn on the tape Watkins was open a lot last year, and Orton could not get him the ball. The qb situation will likely be similar to last year with either Cassell or Manuel under center but there are some other factors that will be at play that could help Watkins this year.

-Watkins played hurt much of last year and has youth on his side so I am not too fearful when you are referring to the surgery.

-Watkins is in year 2 and as a young player you would tend to side with him taking a step up in his play and production.

-The Bills have a new offense with a new coordinator so it makes everything a big question mark at the present time however we can look at Roman's past history as a starting point.

Here is my take:

1) Watkins was targeted 128 times last year. I think that will change this year. I think he is going to get at least 145 plus targets as the lead receiving guy on this team.

2) Rex is a ground and pound coach no doubt, but Greg Roman (offensive coordinator) will hopefully get Watkins involved a lot in this offense. Over the last 3 years in San Francisco Roman's leading Wr's were as follows: 2012 Crabtree had an 85 catch 1100 yard 9 td season, 2013 Boldin had an 85 catch 1179 yard 7 td season, and 2014 Boldin had an 83 catch 1065 yard and 5 td season.

3) Watkins has a high ceiling which makes him intriguing in fantasy and his floor should still be some where in the range of the other leading WR's in Roman's system. Therefore his floor is looking like 78 receptions for 1050 yards and 6 tds. If things go better this year how high can Watkins stats get?

This is crazy talk. 145 targets? What? We are talking about Greg Roman and Rex Ryan. Nobody gets 145 targets. There were a couple times in SF where one guy got close, but that was at the expense of everyone else. The most prolific Roman has ever been was last year when Boldin got 131 targets, Crabtree got 108, Davis got 50, and Stevie got 50. Now in Buffalo, they have a budding young player in Woods, they just brought in Harvin, they just paid Clay some serious cash to come here, and they've got Watkins. That's all you need to know to avoid this situation. Too many cooks.

Citing SF's leading WR is a bit silly, too. Kaep is known for his inability to read progressions and simply locking in on one guy. Unless Watkins is Kaepernick's #1 WR, don't waste your time comparing stats for SF's #1 WRs.

Everyone loves young players who are high draft picks, but be smart and read the situation. This one isn't conducive to receiving totals. Therefore, I agree with the OP. This is a player to ignore. I wouldn't be getting too excited about Landry, though, unless playing full point PPR. His YPR is atrocious and I see no hope of it changing much. I'd rather wait 2 round and get Stills. Out of the players the OP listed, I'd greatly prefer Tate. The only thing holding his ADP back is his TDs which are always a crapshoot with WRs, but in this case his TD/catch rate was way off his historical average.

I am not saying that Buffalo is going to morph into this high octane passing team. Rex will want to run the ball a ton, but that does not mean a team can't feed their number 1 receiving option.

San Fran with Roman as the OC was 29th in passing attempts last year at 487 attempts. The Jets with Rex Ryan last year threw the ball 498 attempts good for 27th in the NFL. So if the Bills throw the ball even less than those marks let's say 476 times which would have put them at 31st in the NFL last year tied with Dallas for 2nd worst in the league then how many of those targets do you see going to Watkins?

The leading receiver on San Fran was Boldin who had 131 targets as a 34 year old WR. The leading WR on the Jets was Decker who had 113 targets however he did not play in one game so had he played and got his average of 7 targets a week he would have had 120 targets.

Do you not think Watkins will at least get 130 plus targets? Teams that have players as good as Watkins as their WR 1 are easily in the 140 plus range hence why I have him projected there. Watkins as a rookie had 128 targets. Different coaches now and different system but I don't see it as a stretch for Watkins to average 1 more target a week in his sophomore year to get him to 140 targets.

Watkins >>>> 34 year old Boldin and Decker as well for the record.

Ok, clearly I didn't tell you what you wanted to hear so you just said the same spiel again and expect me to give you the reply you want. That's not going to happen. Kaepernick honed in on Boldin last year. That doesn't mean the QB in Buffalo is going to hone in on Watkins. But regardless, for Boldin to achieve those targets, SF basically ignored the TE and did not utilize the 3rd WR. Do you expect them to pay Clay all that money and only throw him the ball 50 times? Do you think they brought Harvin into the mix to only give him 100 targets? You think Woods will only see 50 targets? Harvin, Woods, Clay, and Watkins are going to have to split a very small pie. One of them may emerge, but in all likelihood, they will each underperform their ADP.

Also, Decker is very undervalued. Watkins would do well to be as good as Decker one day. He's not there yet.

Buffalo also has McCoy and Fred Jackson - 2 of the best pass catching running backs in the league.