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Players to Exploit and Avoid Week 1, '21 Kickoff Night Edition (1 Viewer)

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
The Reigning Super Bowl Champs and America's Team.

Have fun and off we go!

Dallas at Tampa Bay (-8) (51.5)

Tom Brady will take the field tonight at the ripe age of 44, never in a million years did i think we would be talking about a QB playing at a high level still, racking up yds and TDs with weapons galore at his disposal. This is likely going to be a high scoring affair even with Dallas having some OL issues and the Bucs with a ferocious defense fresh of a Super Bowl victory, this has all the makings of a 38-28, 41-21, pick your number but they seem to point above the Vegas total. That also makes a lot of assumptions and you could also have a game where the offenses are not in sync yet. That would lead to some very disappointing numbers that people are banking on tonight. 

TB-QB Brady, seems like an autostart unless you have Mahomes on your bench. 

TB-RBs...Fournette is the most likely to see the highest rushing totals this week, seems like RoJo will spell him but Fournette resigned with the Bucs and they are going to use him but also understand that guys like Fournette and Gronk are going to be the muscle come playoff time so i wouldn’t assume Fournette will be overused especially in the opening week. The person of interest for me will be Gio Bernard and how he is used, hopefully we see James White 2.0 with a few more moves. Bernard has been stuck in Cinci, this should feel like he landed in OZ tonight. 

TB-WRs...Start ‘em and Antonio Brown is a potential Flex although i might want to see the target distribution with a full off season for Brady and Brown to connect. Godwin singed a 1 yr-$15M deal, my guess is he has to be a big part of the game plan and he also wants the big big dollars next year with a long term deal. Evans is always a threat but last year was up and down at times. I don’t think Gronk is a great start and I could see OJ Howard getting more playing team working his way back from injury and also looking for a new contract next year, he needs to flash his skills again and remind folks how talented he is. 

Dallas QB Dak seems a little risky coming off a horrific to watch injury and I just would like to see him function for a week especially with OL issues and guys like Shaq and JPP bearing down on him as he drops back looking at his arsenal of weapons. 

Dallas RB Zeke should have a solid showing tonight, I don’t see him running all over the Bucs with at least a small chunk of his OL missing. He will see some dum offs from Dak under pressure, what he does with those catches tonight will impact his final stats. No reason he shouldn’t see the end zone once, Dallas will be able to move the ball, maybe not every drive but they are not going to be suffocated the way they were when Dalton was running things last year. 80% Dak has to be better for this offense. 

Dallas WR...Cooper seems like a no brainer and I guess because of the ADP, you must start CeeDee Lamb. Is Gallup worth a look? I would hope you have better options opening week, he seems more like a bye week filler at the moment. 

Final Score: Tampa Bay 34...Dallas 24

 
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foxco

Footballguy
Always love these reads, many thanks. 

So curious to see how TB spreads the ball around. People keep saying Gio is going to catch a ton of passes but that has to come at someone's expense, no? So many weapons on this offense. 

 

Leroy Hoard

Footballguy
Kittle should have a day vs. the Lions, they have nobody who can cover him.  Lions allowed nine touchdowns to tight ends last season.

 

Manster

Footballguy
Dallas' O makes me nervous especially with Martin out and Dak making his first start back on the road against this nasty D.

That said, there's potential garbage points to be had here.  I've been waffling on Cooper, but he's motivated, and could be Dak security blanket...

 

nittanylion

Footballguy
I'm quite bullish on the Dallas pass offense, including Gallup, but not on Gallup tonight. The way I see things scripting, Tony Pollard is going to be a sneaky flex play. I think the Bucs go up early, and Cowboys are chasing a 2-digit margin all night, en route to a spread-covering defeat. As the game goes on, Pollard enters the game as a motion back into the slot, and Dak just mauls him with targets, as the Bucs just hang back and complicate looks to the WR. Given that they will be chasing points, and that Pollard is a superior dynamic option to Jarwin/Schultz, McCarthy gets the ball in his hands hoping for a splash play mixed in with a the dink-and-dunk, IMHO.

 
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Tanner9919

Footballguy
Bucs win in a bloodbath 40-9. under covers. Bucs -8.5 covers. take them behind the woodshed game.

Gronk goes off tonight, shades of the SB. I think that's what we can expect to see from him in 2021. Dallas struggles to get anything going. Dak throws form no more than 245 yards.not the week to start any Dallas player other than their kicker who will find success , Dallas will move the ball to the 35 and kick. over and over.

 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Tanner9919 said:
Bucs win in a bloodbath 40-9. under covers. Bucs -8.5 covers. take them behind the woodshed game.

Gronk goes off tonight, shades of the SB. I think that's what we can expect to see from him in 2021. Dallas struggles to get anything going. Dak throws form no more than 245 yards.not the week to start any Dallas player other than their kicker who will find success , Dallas will move the ball to the 35 and kick. over and over.
TD already

 

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