Players you will avoid in 2018 (1 Viewer)

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I posted this earlier in the thread: His 12 total TDs are likely to come down - TDs are a very volatile stat - but 75 catches for 742 yards seems fairly normal for the pass catching back in Payton's offense. 684 rushing yards doesn't seem all that much of an "outlier" either. I can see his numbers dropping a bit but depending on where his ADP ends up he can still return value.

If his TDs dropped to 7-8 total (which given the Saints offense seems reasonable) which other numbers do you see dropping drastically?

Given his target % in the red zone (and ability to cash in on those targets) I could see Kamara’s TDs staying about the same. Maybe more receiving, fewer rushing, but 10+ seems quite realistic on 75-80 receptions. 

i was skeptical at first, but this kid is the real deal and I will gladly draft him at or around his ADP next year. 

And food for thought: some players even get better in their 2nd year, when they become more comfortable with their offenses and NFL speed. 

So while I concede that it’s possible Kamara regresses, it’s equally possibly that he’s even better next year. If any NFL team could have a 100+ reception running back, it would be the Saints.   

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

The 75 catches is definitely normal, but the 10 YPR  and his 6.1YPC are probably going to come down.  Likely Kamara is going to need either 1) another season of 10+ TDs, or 2) more touches (preferably receptions) to be worth a first round pick.

I’m very hopeful that this line of reasoning depresses his value a bit. 

That said, it's unlikely that Kamara will be a total bust, since his 75-80 receptions will keep his floor high.

In PPR leagues 75-80 receptions alone usually make for a WR2 worthy of a 3rd round pick.  

 

[TZMarkie]

To see if you had substance in your opinion or just throwing around ill informed baseless nonsense. I got my answer.

 No.    Be honest, take a step back and realize whatever opinion or information I believe, you just don't agree.  It really doesn't matter what "substance" I have as you call it.

 This "ill informed baseless nonsense" was a very popular opinion over the course of several seasons.

  But its ok, sir.  Believe what you want and by all means draft who you want accordingly.

 I just don't see the need in asking for other people's opinions, when you plainly aren't going to agree no matter what they say.

 I'll make it easy for you, just put me on ignore, and I will do the same. Then you won't have to listen to my opinions.

 TZM

 

[BustedKnuckles]

 No.    Be honest, take a step back and realize whatever opinion or information I believe, you just don't agree.  It really doesn't matter what "substance" I have as you call it.

 This "ill informed baseless nonsense" was a very popular opinion over the course of several seasons.

  But its ok, sir.  Believe what you want and by all means draft who you want accordingly.

 I just don't see the need in asking for other people's opinions, when you plainly aren't going to agree no matter what they say.

 I'll make it easy for you, just put me on ignore, and I will do the same. Then you won't have to listen to my opinions.

 TZM

I`m willing to bet that he hasn't heard even one of your opinions 

 

[Biabreakable]

Can someone post a link to (recent) free agent WRs joining new teams and their success rate? I know this is done often but all I find are older articles. There was a stretch where one should avoid a WR with a new team for a year.

I haven't seen one recently.

Would have to go through all the free agents from the past 10 years or so to try to look at their success rate.

A decade or so is likely the last article on this topic that I have read. Around the time Peerless Price had a big year then got a juicy contract with a new team then completely face planted is what sticks out in my mind here as far as when I last recall reading about it. So a pretty long time ago now. The results of new WR with a new team matching previous performance with their old team was not good at all. Something like one in 10 WR doing that having as good or better season than their previous one. 

I do think free agent WRs have had more success than that since, and likely why I don't read articles about this recently anymore, but the success rate likely still isn't good. Just not as bad as it used to be would be my guess.

 

[Biabreakable]

Can someone post a link to (recent) free agent WRs joining new teams and their success rate? I know this is done often but all I find are older articles. There was a stretch where one should avoid a WR with a new team for a year.

Just following up on this as I was curious.

I found that Walther Football free agency tracker is a pretty good resource on who were the top free agent WR each year. I have gone back to 2014 with them so far. Didn't find their 2016 list but its likely there.

There are some factors to consider here. Such as a WR who is old and whos game may have declined anyways, which is why they are a free agent, this would be a poor example I think for what we are trying to look at. A WR in their prime going to a new team and offensive system and how productive they are with the new team compared to their performance with their previous team. If the player is washed up then the reason for decline in performance would be unrelated to the new team in my view. Although Anquan Boldin and Steve Smith are recent exception to this as they both had good seasons with new teams at age 35 with the Lions and Ravens respectively. Of course those are very good receivers.

Most of the WR who do move on to new teams are not really stars, they are borderline. Teams generally keep their best players.

Obviously I ignore players who were free agents but signed with the same team.

These lists do not show players who were traded, as is the case with Brandin Cooks who the Patriots gave their 1st round pick for. So I may be missing some trades here.

Something also worth noting is that some of these players show up multiple times, became journeyman type free agents, and these players tend to fade out after not excelling with their new opportunities.

Anyhow here is the list of the players I found so far along with their age at the time they were signed with the new team and a plus or minus comparing their stats the first year with their previous year::

2017

Terrelle Pryor 28 -

Alshon Jeffrey 27 -

Pierre Garcon 31 -

Jeremy Maclin 29 -

Eric Decker 30 +/- his numbers do improve from the previous year, but he only played 3 games the previous year. Comparing it to his 2015 numbers with the Jets its a decline.

DeSean Jackson 30 - Not as good with Tampa as he was with Washington.

Dontrelle Inman 28 - Bears traded for him midseason. Not really a fair comparison. He did better in 2016 but he was a back up in 2017 before being traded to the Bears.

Brandon Marshall 33 - Might be age related. He looked done with the Jets to me before signing with the Giants.

Cordarralle Patterson 26 - Patterson was a back up with the Vikings so would have been pretty easy for him to improve on his numbers but still didn't.

Torrey Smith 28 + Improved but a pretty low bar of 267 yards the previous year. Put up 430 yards for the Eagles. Not much either way.

Ted Ginn 32 - almost a push. Slightly lower numbers than previous year but he did it on fewer targets. His efficiency improved.

Bradin Cooks - almost a push. Slightly lower numbers than previous year mostly due to a drop of 10% catch rate. Seems likely to improve in his second season with the team.

2016

Travis Benjamin 26 - declined. This is the second WR to have career year in their last year with the Browns. See Pryor above.

Marvin Jones 26 + improved slightly in his first year with Detroit and built on that in his second year with the Lions this season.

Anquan Boldin 35 +/- improved in terms of TD but declined in yards. At his age was likely going to decline regardless of where he played.

Brandon LaFell 29 + Improved with the Bengals but he only played 11 games in 2015 with the Patriots before moving on. His best season is still 2014 with the Patriots.

Mohammed Sanu + Improved likely due to better QB play. Still not a 1000 yard receiver in his career though.

Rishard Matthews 26 + Improved and became a focal point of the offense. Perhaps his healthiest season so far of his career.

2015

Jeremy Maclin 27 - He had a good season with KC and Andy Reid in his first year 1000 yards and 8 TD just not as good as his previous year with the Eagles.

Torrey Smith 26 - He declined with the Ravens from his peak in 2013 in terms of yards although he did score more TD (11) in 2014 before going to SF as a free agent.

Michael Crabtree 27 + One of the few successes.He went to a more pass heavy team with the Raiders than the 49ers with Harbaugh.

2014

DeSean Jackson 27 - Did well with Washington just not quite as well as his previous year with Kelly. Would call this a successful transition.

Eric Decker 27 - Declined but still had a good year with the Jets after two career years with Peyton Manning. He improved his numbers second year with the Jets to near previous level.

James Jones 30 - Did not do well and ended up returning to the Packers for somewhat of a renaissance of his performance. 

Golden Tate 26 + Improved a lot with the Lions who pass the ball a lot more than the Seahawks were at the time they had Tate.

Kenny Britt 25 + He improved with the Rams his first season from his previous year with the Titans. Britt got better the next 2 seasons with the Rams as well, showing WR who earn starting roles with their new teams and perform well enough will build on that with the new team in following years. Could be applicable to Brandin Cooks in 2018.

Emanuel Sanders 27 + Perhaps the best first season with a new team of any of these free agent WRs. He almost doubled his yardage. Again though this was career years Peyton Maning.

Steve Smith 35 + Improved with the Ravens. Was still in the twilight of his career though and declined after this season.

Overall I count 14 WR whos performance declined in their first season with a new team. 10 WR whos performance improved with the new team and 4 who I would call a push or no change.

So these numbers are a lot better than I think they used to be. About half of these players had similar or improved seasons with their new teams while the other half declined.

Perhaps the best thing I take out of looking at these last 4 seasons is that the players who pushed or improved in their first year with the new team, a lot of them put up better numbers in their second season with the new team than the first one. Which suggests this may happen with Brandin Cooks next season.