Playoff Picture after 13 weeks (1 Viewer)

[Fensalk]

AFC:

#1 Patriots (9-3)*

#2 Ravens (9-3)**

#3 Texans (9-3)

#4 Broncos (7-5)***

#5 Steelers (9-3)

#6 Bengals (7-5) ****

AFC Wild Card Weekend

Bengals at Texans

Steelers at Broncos

* Patriots, Ravens, and Texans tied with best record. Ravens eliminated from #1 seed due to inferior AFC record. Now its down to Patriots and Texans for #1 seed. Both have 7-2 AFC record. Both are 3-1 in common games. Patriots have a Strength of Victory of 45. pats 4(mia)+4(sdg)+7(oak)+7(nyj)+7(dal)+7(nyj)+5(kan)+4(phi)+0(ind) = 45. Texans have SoV of 41. texans 0(ind)+4(mia)+9(pit)+7(ten)+3(jax)+4(cle)+4(tam)+3(jax)+7(atl) = 41. Patriots win #1 seed on superior SoV.

** Ravens win #2 seed due to head-to-head victory over Texans.

*** Broncos win AFC West due to superior division record compared to Raiders

**** Bengals win #6 seed due to superior AFC record compared to Jets, Titans, and Raiders.

NFC:

#1 Packers (12-0)

#2 49ers (10-2)

#3 Saints (9-3)

#4 Cowboys (7-5)

#5 Bears (7-5)*

#6 Falcons (7-5)**

NFC Wild Card Weekend

Falcons at Saints

Bears at Cowboys

* Three way tie for #5 seed between Bears, Falcons, and Lions. Eliminate teams from same division first. Eliminate 1 of Bears and Lions. First tiebreaker is head-to-head. Teams split head-to-head series. Second tiebreaker is division record. Both teams are 2-2 in NFC North. Third tiebreaker is common games. Both teams are 4-3 in their common games of atl, nor, gnb, car, min, tam, kan. Fourth tiebreaker is NFC record. Bears are 6-3 while Lions are 5-5. Bears eliminate Lions from #5 seed. Now eliminate either Bears or Falcons. Bears beat Falcons head-to-head so Bears are #5 seed.

** Falcons win #6 seed due to head-to-head victory over Lions.

Falling out of playoff picture from last week: Raiders

Entering playoff picture: Broncos

http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures

 

[Ministry of Pain]

It's GB vs whoever in the NFC...likely NO, maybe SF if they can host NO in the 2nd round and the Saints play like they do at times on the road.

AFC is muddy but I think Houston will be one and done, likely NE/Pitt or NE/Bal in the AFC Champ

 

[QuizGuy66]

Btw, none of the teams can get that 6th seed without some form of help. That said, winning out would almost certainly put the Bengals in as getting knocked out would required other teams, including the Ravens, to also be 11-5.

Anyhow, interesting nugget I figured I'd throw out there.

-QG

 

[Macdaddy_2004]

Rooting for Tebow and the Donkeys.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Football Outsiders playoff odds

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds

The top 4 AFC teams are locks

Denver or Oakland will win the AFC West, with the loser almost certainly missing out on the playoffs. That's as much a function of the fact that the loser is likely to have 7 losses as anything.

FO puts the Bengals at 40% to get the WC spot, the Titans and Jets at 30%.

I think if any of those 3 get to 11, they're in. I think we probably see one or two at 9 wins and one or two at 10 wins. The Jets beat the Bengals.

If the Jets and Bengals are at 10 wins, the Jets probably get the tiebreaker (if Cincy loses to Balt, Jets get it based on common opponents; if Cincy loses to Houston, Jets likely get it based on SOV).

If the Jets and Titans are 10 wins, the Titans get the tiebreaker (AFC record)

If the Bengals and Titans are at 10 wins, the Bengals get the tiebreaker (H2H)

If it's a threeway tie, I think the Titans get it based on conference record, but that's subject to change.

The Jets should take care of KC. The Titans should take care of Indy. The Bengals should take care of St. Louis.

They each have a trap game. The Jets play @ Miami. Tennessee plays Jacksonville at home. The Bengals host Arizona. The Jets have the toughest opponent there, but all are tricky.

They each have a toss-up game. The Jets play @ Philly. Tennessee goes @ Houston. The Bengals host the Texans. Houston is tough to read, and that week 17 game may -- or may not -- be meaningless.

They each have a tough game. The Jets "host" the Giants. The Titans host the Saints. The Bengals host the Ravens, although it's week 17 (almost certainly, tho, Balt will have something to play for. Even if they lose a game, they could win the division with a win and PIT loss in the final week).

Jets fans need to root for Baltimore and Houston to keep winning so that the last week is meaningful for both. I think the Jets have the easiest schedule there, or at least the easiest odds of running the table. After that, who knows.