Playoff Probabilities (1 Viewer)

[Jeff Pasquino]

In an effort to figure out some of my playoff leagues, it always helps to try and figure out who's going to leave the post-season in what round. As always, it's tough, but here's my crack at it:

The format is in % chance of leaving that round (using 4 rounds). Teams with byes will have a zero in slot #1.

To see a probability of winning or losing, add the % chances AFTER a given round to give you an idea of that week's odds (i.e. if I say NY Giants (70-15-10-5), I believe that the Giants have a 30% chance at winning Round 1 and are 50-50 if they get to Round 2).

I'll also add the expected # of playoff games for each team in brackets.

AFC

San Diego - (0-40-25-35) [1.95]

Baltimore - (0-40-30-30) [1.90]

Indianapolis - (35-30-20-15) [2.15]

New England - (40-35-15-10) [1.95]

New York Jets - (60-30-5-5) [1.55]

Kansas City - (65-25-5-5) [1.50]

NFC

Chicago - (0-30-30-40) [2.10]

New Orleans - (0-40-30-30) [1.90]

Philadelphia - (35-40-15-10) [2.00]

Seattle - (40-40-10-10) [1.90]

Dallas - (60-25-10-5) [1.60]

New York Giants - (65-25-5-5) [1.50]

 

[Trey]

Those are also the exact seedings of the playoffs.

/states obvious

 

[KCC]

Great stuff, JP, especially for those of us starting prep for playoff-drafts.

A couple questions: 1) What data did you base the percentages on, and 2) Why would the NYG be 50-50 assuming they get to round 2?

ETA: The giants question refers to your hypothetical example rather than the actual percentages listed later in the thread.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Those are also the exact seedings of the playoffs./states obvious

They're listed in that order, what's the issue?The numbers are more important than the list order.

 

[whoisjohngalt]

I'll also add the expected # of playoff games for each team in brackets.

AFC

San Diego - (0-40-25-35) [1.95]

Baltimore - (0-40-30-30) [1.90]

Indianapolis - (35-30-20-15) [2.15]

New England - (40-35-15-10) [1.95]

New York Jets - (60-30-5-5) [1.55]

Kansas City - (65-25-5-5) [1.50]

NFC

Chicago - (0-30-30-40) [2.10]

New Orleans - (0-40-30-30) [1.90]

Philadelphia - (35-40-15-10) [2.15]

Seattle - (40-40-10-10) [1.90]

Dallas - (60-25-10-5) [1.60]

New York Giants - (65-25-5-5) [1.50]

Something's wrong with the expected number of games. Those numbers need to add up to 22 and they are instead 0.15 too much. (Twelve teams, eleven need to be eliminated, so eleven games with two teams per game.) The extra 0.15 is in the NFC.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Great stuff, JP, especially for those of us starting prep for playoff-drafts. A couple questions: 1) What data did you base the percentages on, and 2) Why would the NYG be 50-50 assuming they get to round 2?

Some of the numbers just came from me (what can I say, it's my calls), but some were influenced by the point spreads / vegas money lines.After Round 2, matchups are nearly impossible to align, so I just would say things such as "if the Bears played anyone besides the Giants in the championship game, would they be favored?"I doubt we'll see a double-digit spread or +500/-600 game, so the 1 out of 3 at worst kinds of odds seems ok to me.I don't think I had anyone at worse than a 70-30 disadvantage, but sometimes it's hard to see all the numbers at once.I'll review the comments in the morning.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

I'll also add the expected # of playoff games for each team in brackets.

AFC

San Diego - (0-40-25-35) [1.95]

Baltimore - (0-40-30-30) [1.90]

Indianapolis - (35-30-20-15) [2.15]

New England - (40-35-15-10) [1.95]

New York Jets - (60-30-5-5) [1.55]

Kansas City - (65-25-5-5) [1.50]

NFC

Chicago - (0-30-30-40) [2.10]

New Orleans - (0-40-30-30) [1.90]

Philadelphia - (35-40-15-10) [2.15] <---Error, should be [2.00]

Seattle - (40-40-10-10) [1.90]

Dallas - (60-25-10-5) [1.60]

New York Giants - (65-25-5-5) [1.50]

Something's wrong with the expected number of games. Those numbers need to add up to 22 and they are instead 0.15 too much. (Twelve teams, eleven need to be eliminated, so eleven games with two teams per game.) The extra 0.15 is in the NFC.

Philly should be 2.00 even. Good catch.(I so wish I could cut and paste spreadsheets).

I fixed the first post.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Great stuff, JP, especially for those of us starting prep for playoff-drafts. A couple questions: 1) What data did you base the percentages on, and 2) Why would the NYG be 50-50 assuming they get to round 2?ETA: The giants question refers to your hypothetical example rather than the actual percentages listed later in the thread.

Probably the Giants should be say 6-4, but I didn't go beyond increments of 5.This is rough orders of magnitude, so a 70-20-5-5 is more telling by saying "I think there's only a 30% chance they win a game, and only a 10% chance they win two or more".

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Great stuff, JP, especially for those of us starting prep for playoff-drafts. A couple questions: 1) What data did you base the percentages on, and 2) Why would the NYG be 50-50 assuming they get to round 2?ETA: The giants question refers to your hypothetical example rather than the actual percentages listed later in the thread.

If this was a "how do you get that they are 50-50 question", I think you caught on:A team (call it the Tigers so as not to bias anyone) that is 70-15-10-5 has a 70% chance of losing their first game, and is 50-50 in the second round since they are 15% to lose Round 2 but they still have a 15% chance to advance (the 10% and the 5% add to 15%, so 15% loss, 15% advance).Why would that be? Well, if they had a bad matchup or matched up well with a 2nd round team, that's a possibility.It's also interesting that a team could be 30-40-20-10, where they'd be very likely to advance but then get knocked out.

 

[BassNBrew]

New York Jets - (60-30-5-5)

80-15-5-0

 

[BassNBrew]

Philadelphia - (35-40-15-10) [2.00]Seattle - (40-40-10-10) [1.90]Dallas - (60-25-10-5) [1.60]New York Giants - (65-25-5-5) [1.50]

I have the Philly / NYG as a 55/45 tilt (45/55 in your format). I think Dallas is a far superior team than Seattle.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

New York Jets - (60-30-5-5)

80-15-5-0

You might be able to sell me on 75-15-5-5 (rounded to 5's), but a zero seems rather flawed.

 

[BassNBrew]

New York Jets - (60-30-5-5)

80-15-5-0

You might be able to sell me on 75-15-5-5 (rounded to 5's), but a zero seems rather flawed.

Odds to win the 2007 Super Bowl XLI Odds All wagers have action. No Refunds. No Parlays. Max $500 Baltimore Ravens 18/5 Chicago Bears 9/2 Dallas Cowboys 23/1 Indianapolis Colts 10/1 Kansas City Chiefs 25/1 New England Patriots 7/1 New Orleans Saints 13/2 New York Giants 38/1 New York Jets 40/1 Philadelphia Eagles 10/1 San Diego Chargers 12/5 Seattle Seahawks 21/1 Check back soon, these lines update often.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

New York Jets - (60-30-5-5)

80-15-5-0

You might be able to sell me on 75-15-5-5 (rounded to 5's), but a zero seems rather flawed.

Odds to win the 2007 Super Bowl XLI Odds All wagers have action. No Refunds. No Parlays. Max $500 Baltimore Ravens 18/5 Chicago Bears 9/2 Dallas Cowboys 23/1 Indianapolis Colts 10/1 Kansas City Chiefs 25/1 New England Patriots 7/1 New Orleans Saints 13/2 New York Giants 38/1 New York Jets 40/1 Philadelphia Eagles 10/1 San Diego Chargers 12/5 Seattle Seahawks 21/1 Check back soon, these lines update often.

So now you're meeting me half-way?40:1 = 2.5%Is this really worth arguing about?

 

[Trey]

Ohhh... I get it now.

Reading all of the first post would have probably been beneficial to reaching a higher level of understanding.

It only took me 24 hours to figure this out.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Odds to win the 2007 Super Bowl XLI Odds

All wagers have action. No Refunds. No Parlays. Max $500

Baltimore Ravens 18/5 (22%) (30%)

Chicago Bears 9/2 (18%) (40%)

Dallas Cowboys 23/1 (4%) (5%)

Indianapolis Colts 10/1 (9%) (15%)

Kansas City Chiefs 25/1 (4%) (5%)

New England Patriots 7/1 (13%) (10%)

New Orleans Saints 13/2 (13%) (30%)

New York Giants 38/1 (3%) (5%)

New York Jets 40/1 (3%) (5%)

Philadelphia Eagles 10/1 (9%) (10%)

San Diego Chargers 12/5 (29%) (35%)

Seattle Seahawks 21/1 (5%) (10%)

Check back soon, these lines update often.

GREEN = less than 5% difference.BLUE = 5-10% difference.

RED = over 10% difference.

Only two are red, three blue and 7 are green.

Not bad for personal opinion.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Ohhh... I get it now.Reading all of the first post would have probably been beneficial to reaching a higher level of understanding.It only took me 24 hours to figure this out.

It's all good Trey.

 

[BassNBrew]

New York Jets - (60-30-5-5)

80-15-5-0

You might be able to sell me on 75-15-5-5 (rounded to 5's), but a zero seems rather flawed.

Odds to win the 2007 Super Bowl XLI Odds All wagers have action. No Refunds. No Parlays. Max $500

Baltimore Ravens 18/5

Chicago Bears 9/2

Dallas Cowboys 23/1

Indianapolis Colts 10/1

Kansas City Chiefs 25/1

New England Patriots 7/1

New Orleans Saints 13/2

New York Giants 38/1

New York Jets 40/1

Philadelphia Eagles 10/1

San Diego Chargers 12/5

Seattle Seahawks 21/1

Check back soon, these lines update often.

So now you're meeting me half-way?40:1 = 2.5%

Is this really worth arguing about?

but a zero seems rather flawed.

So I round down my less than 2.5% chance and it's rather flawed

 

[BassNBrew]

Odds to win the 2007 Super Bowl XLI Odds

All wagers have action. No Refunds. No Parlays. Max $500

Baltimore Ravens 18/5 (22%) (30%)

Chicago Bears 9/2 (18%) (40%)

Dallas Cowboys 23/1 (4%) (5%)

Indianapolis Colts 10/1 (9%) (15%)

Kansas City Chiefs 25/1 (4%) (5%)

New England Patriots 7/1 (13%) (10%)

New Orleans Saints 13/2 (13%) (30%)

New York Giants 38/1 (3%) (5%)

New York Jets 40/1 (3%) (5%)

Philadelphia Eagles 10/1 (9%) (10%)

San Diego Chargers 12/5 (29%) (35%)

Seattle Seahawks 21/1 (5%) (10%)

Check back soon, these lines update often.

GREEN = less than 5% difference.BLUE = 5-10% difference.

RED = over 10% difference.

Only two are red, three blue and 7 are green.

Not bad for personal opinion.

Hey there Jeff...you need to cut all those percentages in half to get the true odds. 100% vig is built into these lines....yet people still play them.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Odds to win the 2007 Super Bowl XLI Odds

All wagers have action. No Refunds. No Parlays. Max $500

Baltimore Ravens 18/5 (22%) (30%)

Chicago Bears 9/2 (18%) (40%)

Dallas Cowboys 23/1 (4%) (5%)

Indianapolis Colts 10/1 (9%) (15%)

Kansas City Chiefs 25/1 (4%) (5%)

New England Patriots 7/1 (13%) (10%)

New Orleans Saints 13/2 (13%) (30%)

New York Giants 38/1 (3%) (5%)

New York Jets 40/1 (3%) (5%)

Philadelphia Eagles 10/1 (9%) (10%)

San Diego Chargers 12/5 (29%) (35%)

Seattle Seahawks 21/1 (5%) (10%)

Check back soon, these lines update often.

GREEN = less than 5% difference.BLUE = 5-10% difference.

RED = over 10% difference.

Only two are red, three blue and 7 are green.

Not bad for personal opinion.

Hey there Jeff...you need to cut all those percentages in half to get the true odds. 100% vig is built into these lines....yet people still play them.

I think I did this correctly, as my numbers aren't about the odds to win the SB, but to reach it.If the Colts are 9 to 1 to win the SB, that means they have a 1 in 10 chance, doesn't?

Not trying to be facetious BnB, just let me know if that's not right as we aren't using the odds in their intended way.