POLL: Potential Contract Extension Parameters For LA To Extend Tavon Austin? (1 Viewer)

[Bob Magaw]

In other words, what is a figure LA and Austin might agree on to prevent him from leaving in free agency in 2017, as CB Janoris Jenkins did in 2016 (whoever thought he would receive enough guaranteed money through the first two years of his contract to be second only to Revis among NFL CBs, including $12+ million per year, go to the head of the class ). 

* A few assumptions for the purpose of the poll

1) That the Rams don't opt to use the franchise tag designation.

2) If you think the front office will reckon his value partly based on upside and potential (HC Jeff Fisher was recently quoted admitting they hadn't done a good enough job getting the ball into his hands in the past, and they were striving to remedy that going forward, and incorporate him into becoming a bigger part of their game plan), or more of a hard line stance (something like a Parcellian - You are what your numbers say you are), vote accordingly.

3) So as to not complicate things by speculating about what he may or may not do in 2016 (better, worse, same?), say LA wants to do this sometime before the season. By choice they haven't been active in free agency after shedding the salaries of NE DE Chris Long, NO LB James Laurinaitis and GB TE Jared Cook, inking just a few modest deals for external free agents such as former NYJ OLB/DE Quinton Coples for DL depth and TEN CB Sensabaugh (starter, nickel or dime, could be partly contingent on the health of E.J. Gaines and whether or not Joyner is shunted inside to FS). They already signed internal free agents WLB Mark Barron (blockbuster if not bank breaker 5/45 contract second highest for his position after Pro Bowler Lavonte David at 5/50) and DE William Hayes (UP TO 3/17), and are reportedly saving money to sign a string of looming internal free agents in the next year or two, including new MLB Alec Ogletree, designated 2016 franchise tag CB Trumaine Johnson ($14 million until re-signed long term to spread out the cap figure), WR Austin, DT Michael Brockers, SS T.J. McDonald, and eventually recent ROYs, DT Aaron Donald and RB Todd Gurley, already among the best in the NFL at their respective positions.      

 

[Anarchy99]

Franchise tag is just crazy talk. Austin had the 28th most yards from scrimmage for all WR last year. For the record, that was behind Allen Hurns, John Brown, Jordan Matthews, Willie Snead, Kamar Aiken, and Travis Benjamin. 

Benjamin just signed a four year deal for $24 million with $13 million guaranteed. 

However, Austin's receiving totals have not been great, so I am not even sure he would fetch $6 million a year on the open market. If I were to guess, on the open market, I would guess four years for $20-22 million unless he has more of a break out year this year. 

A lot would depend how deep the free agent crop was at the time and how the incoming class of rookie receivers looked. 

 

[Anarchy99]

Looking at your poll numbers, I think you value Austin more than the league probably does. 

 

[Bob Magaw]

From a Q & A with ESPN beat reporter about a week ago, regarding potential Rams extension targets in the near, mid and long term, including some informed conjecture.

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/id/122057/which-rams-are-next-up-for-a-contract-extension

Q - Are the Rams currently working to get Tru, Brockers, Ogletree and Austin extended? Can't lose those guys

A - "Earlier this offseason, I wrote that just because the Rams have a lot of salary-cap space doesn't mean they're likely to go out and spend big on outside players. Some of that was because they wanted to re-sign their own current free agents. But the other piece of the equation was that they wanted to sign guys who could be free agents soon and they don't want to again find themselves in position where all of those players will test the market first before potentially re-signing. That includes all four of the players you mentioned there.

As it stands, defensive tackle Michael Brockers and cornerback Trumaine Johnson would be free agents after next season, while the Rams have fifth-year options on linebacker Alec Ogletree and receiver Tavon Austin. Johnson is playing under the franchise tag and Brockers is playing under his fifth-year option. The Rams are hoping to get deals done with both, and coach Jeff Fisher said at last week's owners meetings that they're aiming to get something done with Johnson long-term before the July deadline for franchise players to sign extensions. Fisher also said the Rams want to keep Ogletree and Austin, though it's a bit more complicated in their cases. Fisher acknowledged it's all but certain the team will use the fifth-year option on Ogletree, but that seems more unlikely with Austin given his draft position and what that would cost. In a more ideal world, they could sign Austin to a deal more commensurate with his production.

Also, keep in mind that at some point relatively soon, they're going to have to backup the Brinks truck for Aaron Donald. One way or another, I'm sure the Rams would like to avoid a repeat of this year, where they are unable to sign any of their pending free agents in advance then have to sit through some nerve-wracking moments hoping they don't get outbid."

 

[Bob Magaw]

Looking at your poll numbers, I think you value Austin more than the league probably does. 

I thought I valued Jenkins in line with how the league does, but was actually conservative. Sometimes it only takes one team to up the ante. Point taken he is more accomplished on his side of the ball, than Austin is on his. But Jenkins hasn't been unambiguously great. Most defensive TDs since 2012 isn't a massively impactful stat. On the flip or dark side, he has also surrendered the third most TDs among his peers in that same span, which doesn't exactly scream, $12+ million per year, or second most guaranteed money through 2017 among CBs after Revis (in fairness, I think perennial Pro Bowler Patrick Peterson may be higher on that TDs surrendered since 2012 list, though nobody would mistake the two, or confuse their respective worth). Jenkins can also be an erratic, inconsistent and even indifferent tackler. He had a career season and was more consistent in a contract year, but previously he routinely got burned more often than the aliens in Prometheus. It does make you wonder if he will play with the same amount of energy, intensity, urgency and consistency now that he hit the second contract jackpot, and there were also some character questions and off field red flags which maybe needed to be factored into his overall valuation (kicked out of school in college for multiple drug-related issues, I think), though he had no serious setbacks in that department during his four season tenure in STL. I digress, but just noting players can sometimes fetch more than we envision, different teams can value different skills in different ways, and it isn't always possible to accurately predict how free agency might unfold. The Rams reportedly wanted to keep FS Rodney McLeod, too, but it didn't go down like they hoped, PHI threw more money at him ($7 million per year) than they had accounted for or expected.

Given all that, if the Rams decide they want to keep Austin, but at the right price, they will have to weigh what they think he is worth, against what Austin and his agent think he could command in a free agency-type situation with competitive bidding.         

 

[Anarchy99]

Certainly Austin's agent is going to promote his client as the next big thing, but if the Rams are smart (and that itself is debatable), they will look at Austin as a below average receiver. Since he joined the league . . .

Austin's rankings as a WR and over how many seasons:

The past three years combined:
47th in YFS, 81st in receiving yards

The past two years combined:
49th in YFS, 88th in receiving yards

Last year:
28th in YFS, 72nd in receiving yards

Maybe his value increases some for returning kicks, but I still am not seeing where Austin is worth a big contract or even a medium-sized contract. In fact, I would be surprised if the Rams picked up his 5th year option on his rookie contract. That will be at least $11 million to keep him for another season. I just don't see it.

 

[ZWK]

Austin has actually been pretty terrible as a receiver. He had 5.4 YPT last year, 5.7 YPT for his career. Football Outsiders wrote a thing about this a few months back.

I figure that his rushing + punt return abilities make him worth $5-6M per year, assuming that the team can figure out how to stop using him in roles that he's bad at. I flipped a coin and voted $6M.

 

[massraider]

Take draft position out of it.  

If he was a 4th rounder entering this season, he'd be thought of as a nice weapon, who is limited, and needs to have touches manufactured for him. 

 

[Anarchy99]

Take draft position out of it.  

If he was a 4th rounder entering this season, he'd be thought of as a nice weapon, who is limited, and needs to have touches manufactured for him. 

You really can't take draft position out of it. The Rams will have to decide if they want to pick up his fifth year option or not. That is going to run them $11+ million if they want to keep him after this year (provided they don't reach a new deal). He's not worth that.

Looking at his production to date, he has produced as a middle of the road receiver. How much is that worth? Ginn signed a 2 year deal worth $4.2 million. Heyward-Bey just signed a three year deal worth a total of $3.8 million. Percy Harvin, who currently is unemployed, essentially played in BUF for one year for $6 million.

The point being, discussing Austin as potentially being paid in the millions and millions of dollars per year range seems a little silly unless he does something phenomenal this year.

 

[massraider]

You really can't take draft position out of it.

Yeah, you can.  Because he's not getting that 5th year option picked up.  Now he's just a guy in the last year of his deal.  

 

[Anarchy99]

Yeah, you can.  Because he's not getting that 5th year option picked up.  Now he's just a guy in the last year of his deal.  

If Austin were a 4th round pick, the Rams would not need not have to worry about using a team option to keep him for a fifth year on his rookie deal. They would already have him under contract for peanuts to play another season. Anything that involves "forcing" him to stick around will never happen (fifth year option or franchising him) as that would just be dumb. 

I doubt his agent will try to command big money, but who knows what they will ask for. I agree (and have been posting) that similar players are out there playing for $1-2 million a season.

 

[massraider]

If Austin were a 4th round pick, the Rams would not need not have to worry about using a team option to keep him for a fifth year on his rookie deal. They would already have him under contract for peanuts to play another season. Anything that involves "forcing" him to stick around will never happen (fifth year option or franchising him) as that would just be dumb. 

Right, so we can take draft position out of it.  The Rams don't need to worry about the 5th year option, because he IS NOT getting it.  

He's on a four year deal like every other rookie.  

He hasn't played like a 1st rounder, and 'upside' and 'potential' talk after year 3 is not a good thing.  

I think he gets 3-5 mill per next year--unless he blows up and goes all Brandin Cooks.  

 

[Bob Magaw]

I think the Rams might be asking themselves some of the same questions I am.

Have they done a competent job positioning him to maximize his ability? I don't know how else to interpret Fisher's recent quote that they haven't done enough in the past to get the ball in his hands, and need to find ways to improve, than - no. So what are the implications of that? Will Austin and his agent look at it in terms of, we think Austin could have been more productive if he had been featured more, but that was complicated by the fact that he was working with career backup/UFA-type QBs for the bulk of his three year tenure so far (Bradford missed the last 3/4 of his first two seasons with multiple torn ACLs, kind of an outlier, that doesn't happen too much, ostensible replacement Foles imploded in Austin's next, third and only other season), OLs in disarray, multiple incompetent OCs that were relieved of their jobs, SO we're going to forget all that, pretend it didn't happen, and go with a lowered extension figure, based on his actual production, some of which was suppressed for reasons out of his control?

If you break it down like that, I don't think Austin and his agent are going to see it that way. I don't think they are going to think that the Rams don't at some level share some culpability in his inconsistent production, notably the coaching staff's at times bungled and incompetent usage, and he shouldn't have to lower his expectations on his OVERALL worth and valuation, or be punished so to speak, for said bungling and incompetence.

Again, I assume the Rams are viewing it like I am, and perhaps others in the thread, in terms of looking at actual production, but also possible extenuating and mitigating circumstances, such that it wouldn't be unreasonable to project what he might be capable of him given more competent usage, with a maturing and more experienced OL with less turnover and greater continuity, and perhaps a QB upgrade is in the cards in the near future.

Than you might ask questions like:

If you look at his physical and athletic traits (speed, quickness, elusiveness), but also skill set and game (developing as a route runner, making strides and improvements in this area, still limited and maybe always will be in some aspects, will never be Michael Irvin over the middle, can't ask him to be that), intangibles (can he conceptually grasp NFL schemes that are vastly more complex than the severely curtailed/truncated playbook used at West Virginia) and again, USAGE, both in the intended and execution senses, is obviously a key piece of the puzzle-type of variable in this equation...

Does it look likely, unlikely or indeterminate that we could bump his career high 2015 receiving production of 50 receptions, by, oh, say 2 receptions per game (about 80 receptions per season). If the answer points to the first answer, that could recommend moving the extension parameter dial or needle upwards, the second answer downwards, the third could point to complicated negotiations.

For myself, if the Rams make a concerted effort (Fisher has already stated the intention to feed Austin more, former interim now OC Boras did exactly this once he took over in-season last year, and he is the incumbent), I don't find it too far fetched or unreasonable to conceive they can get he ball in his hands by passing it to him two X more per game, and that he can start averaging 80 receptions per year. If that transpires, than I think other people will value him more accordingly, and so will the Rams.              

Another way to break it down. Austin had a career high 10 TDs last season. Clearly if he had 30 TDs in his first three seasons, we (me, you, the Rams, the thread, everybody) would look differently at him. So the Rams may also be asking themselves, was his scoring outburst and breakout in 2015 during his third year more representative of what he can do, or will they treat that as a complete outlier unlikely to ever be replicated, and come to the conclusion that his first two years (raw rookie from West Virginia, Bradford missed the last 3/4 of their games together) are a more accurate reflection of his potential and upside? 

Put it this way (to the thread) - how many combined receiving/rushing/return TDs would it take in 2016, where others might come to the conclusion maybe they had underrated his value as a MULTI-PURPOSE weapon. 12? 15? 17? 20?

Lastly (for now), if Austin is a multi-purpose weapon, looking askance at him because he doesn't gobble up receptions like Antonio Brown, Julio Jones or the otherwise best WRs in the league to me seems somewhat like missing the point. I don't think less of A.J. Green for instance, because he didn't rush for 400 yards and 4 TDs. Similarly, measuring Austin against conventional WRs may not be a yardstick that leads to relevant or even coherent comps. Kind of like using a measuring cup to determine how much a barbell weighs.  

Austin had a combined (receiving/rushing, not including punt return yardage) 910 yards in 2015. Not too far behind the receiving yardage of Michael Crabtree, ahead of (in order) Michael Floyd, Terrance Williams, Randall Cobb, Marvin Jones, Golden Tate, I could go on, and Floyd was the only one that didn't play 16 games, and he played 15 (I didn't include guys Martavis Bryant who played 11 games). From that group, only Cobb (50), Tate (41) and Jones (33) had any appreciable rushing totals, and they were pretty negligible compared to Austin.

How much do those guys make, and what would they make if they hit the open market (without referencing everything, I'm sure some of these WRs have had better, but some worse seasons, as far as how representative 2015 might be in their overall body of work). Except for Crabtree, they tend to be on the young side, like Austin. What were there TDs like in 2015 (I get Jones previously had a great TD scoring season)?

Crabtree - 9, Floyd, Cobb and Tate - 6, Marvin Jones - 4 and Terrance Williams - 3  

Eric Metcalf as a comp (not ideal, he was a RB, so he likely got more touches by default his first half dozen years in the league, wasn't converted to Austin's position of WR until year seven when he had a career high campaign - 104/1,189/8, which fell to just under 600 yards the next, second and only other season in ATL, or as a WR). He was the 13th overall pick in the 1989 draft (Austin eighth overall in 2013, nearly a quarter century later).

COMBINED (RUSHING/RECEIVING, NOT RETURN) YARDS/TDs IN CLE - Metcalf played RB and 16 games all six seasons in CLE, except for his third, when he only played eight games and as a returner, I'll toss it out with a N/A, keep in mind his rushing attempts fluctuated a lot, not sure if there is a discernible pattern (they went down, than up, than down again) other than they trended down OVERALL from his career high rookie season - PFR stats below 

'89) 1,030/10

'90) 700/2

'91) N/A

'92) 915/6

'93) 1,150/5

'94) 765/7

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MetcEr00.htm

* AUSTIN in 2015 (910/10)

 

[jeaton6]

Who has been throwing him the ball for the past 3 years? Worst QB situation in the league by far, no RBs to take pressure off the defense (until last year when his production was up). Not sure quoting his absolute stats given this will prove a point that he isn't a good WR. 

I wouldn't expect a solid guy to overcome that situation and we've seen cases where superstars haven't (look at Fitz a couple years back when he had similar QBs as Austin has been dealing with).

All said I think 6-7 million is about right and if they ever fix QB he could be a solid weekly contributor.

 

[Bob Magaw]

Austin has actually been pretty terrible as a receiver. He had 5.4 YPT last year, 5.7 YPT for his career. Football Outsiders wrote a thing about this a few months back.

I figure that his rushing + punt return abilities make him worth $5-6M per year, assuming that the team can figure out how to stop using him in roles that he's bad at. I flipped a coin and voted $6M.

Good work in the dynasty thread. Thanks.

I see you credited Austin with rushing + PR to arrive at that slightly rounded up valuation. I take it you find it unlikely to see substantive, significant improvement in future receiving production? If I thought that, I'd probably value him very much like you, that seems consistent. Just because the Rams have been so inept offensively (especially the pass offense - kind of a chicken and egg conundrum, has the Rams passing offense been bad because of him, his stats tempered and muted because of their incompetence, both, neither?), I think he could have upside if they miraculously improve on dead last by some passing metrics. I'm reticent to say nowhere to go but up, as this is the Rams we are talking about.

You could be right. Maybe he ends up somewhere between where we have him. I do think answering $5-$6 million is tantamount to say he won't be a Ram in 2017, because I don't think that is a figure he and his agent have in mind, and I think there could be teams out there with a rising salary cap that might do better. Also, there has been some confusion on it in both threads, but I also don't see the Rams using the franchise tag on him as a WR, given how much that would entail and his production gap so far that wouldn't justify it. We'll see. This should be an important year for him as far as contract negotiations.

* Football Outsiders question, as I'm unfamiliar with their stats and metrics. Are their proprietary stats suggesting he might do better with better QBs than the likes of Clemens, Hill, Davis, Keenum (last three all UFAs) and Foles, or that he is so bad that he is beyond that kind of help, or no bearing either way. If the latter, than possibly a QB upgrade could be cause for optimism. There can't have been many QB situations that have been as consistently dire as STL since 2013, the year he was on-boarded with the Rams (all they drafted in that time was third rounder Mannion last year, who looks a lot like a career backup, much like most of his predecessors in the Fisher/Snead era, they got Foles in a trade, but he imploded). This could also be an important draft for the Rams, with three of the top 45 picks, they could have ammo to move up. They could also kick in picks next year if needed, as it sounds like they have third and fourth comp picks ticketed for the 2017 draft due to the Jenkins and McLeod departures in free agency (the highest paid in free agency at their respective positions?), and not signing any expensive external free agents - Barron doesn't impact that. Next year is the first comp picks are tradable (or they could move their own, as they have those backstopping them).               

 

[Bob Magaw]

Players with more than 10 TDs in 2015 at any position.

WR (6)

14 - Baldwin, Robinson, Marshall

13 - OBJ

12 - Decker

11 - Hopkins

Austin had 10, as well as Ginn and Hurns, so did A.J. Green and Antonio Brown

WRs with less, Calvin Johnson, Watkins, Fitzgerald, Julio Jones, Maclin, D. Thomas

RB (5)

14 - Freeman

13 - Johnson

12 - Hill

11 - D. Williams and Peterson 

Gurley and Lamar Miller had 10

TE (3)

13 - Eifert

11 - Reed

11 - Gronk   

14 league-wide at any position that had more than 10, 21 total with 10 or more 

 

[CalBear]

RB/WR with <600 yards rushing, <600 yards receiving, 10+ TDs in the past 20 years:

Willis McGahee 2009

Stephen Davis 2005

Marcus Allen 1997

Larry Johnson 2004

Moe Williams 2002

Matt Asiata 2014

Tim Hightower 2008

Leroy Hoard 1999

Leroy Hoard 1998

Dorsey Levens 1996

Mike Tolbert 2011

Only three of these players (Levens, Hoard 1998, and LJ 2004) ever had 10 TDs again. LJ was hurt in 2004 or wouldn't have been in this class (he had 581 yards rushing in 10 games). So you've got two guys out of 10. One of them, Levens, was given the starting job the next season and got 329 carries (12 TD). The other, Hoard, got one more year of goal-line action before retiring. 

Not great.  

 

[Snorkelson]

I think it depends more on the wr free agent market next year more than anything. If he were a fa this year, he probably would have banked. Fischer has been pulling the "we aren't using him correctly" line for 3 years. 

I think there are a lot of coordinators who would love to have a weapon like him but gms may not want to pay a lot for an "offensive weapon". 

Hard to say at this point if he's a Hester/cribbs type with more opportunities because of the talent deficiency of the rams or a sproles "Swiss army knife" type. Either way I suppose there's value, the best return men in the nfl have made a living although new kickoff rules make it less valuable. KR+ should make 4-6 mil. If he gets more than that I'll be surprised. Doubt there's an uptick in targets or anything this yr, running and defense will be their gameplan.  

How much would you pay a wr you picked in the top 10 when this year wr is one of your biggest needs? Can the rams afford to lose him? They have a lot of playmakers on defense to pay, they may have to let someone go to keep what little playmaking they have on offense. If they don't pick up the option, why not test the market or try to find a  team with a better qb situation if you're Tavon? Good post-i don't follow the rams and learned a lot about their cap/long term situation from this topic. 

 

[Snorkelson]

Off topic- but just want to say, Eric decker may be the most underrated player ever. Looking at that list above, seems like he is around 10 tds every year. Still young too. 

 

[Tau837]

So here are some quotes from above on Bob's position:

• Austin could have been more productive if he had been featured more
  
• he was working with career backup/UFA-type QBs for the bulk of his three year tenure so far... OLs in disarray, multiple incompetent OCs that were relieved of their jobs
  
• the Rams... at some level share some culpability in his inconsistent production, notably the coaching staff's at times bungled and incompetent usage, and he shouldn't have to lower his expectations on his OVERALL worth and valuation, or be punished so to speak, for said bungling and incompetence
  
• look at his skill set and game (developing as a route runner, making strides and improvements in this area, still limited and maybe always will be in some aspects, will never be Michael Irvin over the middle, can't ask him to be that)
  
• intangibles (can he conceptually grasp NFL schemes that are vastly more complex than the severely curtailed/truncated playbook used at West Virginia)
  
• if the Rams make a concerted effort... they can get he ball in his hands by passing it to him two X more per game, and he can start averaging 80 receptions per year
  
• if he had 30 TDs in his first three seasons, we (me, you, the Rams, everybody) would look differently at him
  
• measuring Austin against conventional WRs may not be a yardstick that leads to relevant or even coherent comps
  

Maybe it's just me, but I don't see Fisher and the Rams responding positively to Austin and his agent propping him up based on incompetent coaching.

If Austin and his agent are willing to settle for $6M or less, I suspect they can work out a deal now. If instead they use Bob's approach summarized here to try to justify more, I fully expect the Rams to let him play out his 4th year. (Or, at least, that is what should happen, but it is the Rams we are talking about...)

If he plays it out and doesn't make the type of improvements Bob proposes, he and his agent should be willing to come down on their demands. Even if he breaks out, the Rams can still try to re-sign him.

ETA: voted $6M

 

[Bob Magaw]

Who has been throwing him the ball for the past 3 years? Worst QB situation in the league by far, no RBs to take pressure off the defense (until last year when his production was up). Not sure quoting his absolute stats given this will prove a point that he isn't a good WR. 

I wouldn't expect a solid guy to overcome that situation and we've seen cases where superstars haven't (look at Fitz a couple years back when he had similar QBs as Austin has been dealing with).

All said I think 6-7 million is about right and if they ever fix QB he could be a solid weekly contributor.

Exactly. Is there anybody that would dispute the Rams have been sub-optimal QB and passing game-wise for a few years now, and there isn't room for improvement with a better supporting cast and surrounding talent? I don't know what the draft will bring, but I would like to see an offense heavy draft something like QB Lynch (#15 or trade up to take Goff, but lose at least one of the second rounders, plus possible 2017 pick/s), TE Henry (#43) and WR Michael Thomas or Sterling Shepard. To complete a young OL, they could also look at a C like Kelly as Barnes is barely adequate, or G with Saffold's chronically injured shoulder, but on the other side of the ball, a DE like Nassib, S like Joseph or CB like Fuller, even a LB like red shirt Jaylon Smith who otherwise might have been in the top 3-5 OVERALL mix (knee injury significantly worse than Gurley, though), as their depth is perilously thin after starters MLB Ogletree, WLB Barron and SLB Ayers - maybe 2014 fourth round SS Mo Alexander could play S/LB hybrid like Barron did last season at big nickel third safety basically playing LB before Ogletree was injured, and simply replacing him at WLB after?

WR Treadwell (#15), QB Cook (#43) and TE Hooper (45) could be another possible variation (they have three of the top 45 picks due to the Bradford trade). 

When the Rams involved Austin more in 2015 than before in 2013-2014 when he wasn't as involved, he did better, when he wasn't as involved before in 2013-2014 as when he was more involved later in 2015, he did worse, interlinked novel concepts.

I recently looked at the league WR contract figures (sorted top down). Here it is, courtesy of handy over the cap 

http://overthecap.com/position/wide-receiver/  

First of all, they were lower than I realized except for the very top. I didn't have every salary at every position in the league committed to memory.  Benjamin was mentioned by Anarchy at $6 million per year as a sort of benchmark or measuring stick for comparison purposes. A few things stand out. Given a do over, I might make my poll vote more like $8 million or even $7 million.

I could look at a few WRs that are in the vicinity of his 915 combined yards and 10 TDs, and find some better, but some worse, in some cases making comparable or bigger numbers than those discussed here. What did departed FS McLeod make in PHI, about $7.5 million per year, so is it obvious that he will be far more valuable to them in the secondary, than Austin could be for the Rams as a complement to deflect some attention away and take pressure off centerpiece and focal point Gurley.

If you look at their roster composition, in a few years, they could have signed extensions and re-signings just on defense for DTs Donald and Brockers, MLB Ogletree, Trumaine Johnson and McDonald  in the secondary. That is on top of Quinn who was extended and made one of the best paid DEs in the game a few years ago (he may also need to be re-extended in a few years) and Barron was just re-signed and became the second highest paid WLB in the league. That is 7/11 starters that they would probably like to remain long term part of the defensive nucleus, COREnerstone roster members. On offense, they don't have a QB yet, Gurley will make a lot of money in a few years, but after that, they don't have a lot of money invested on the offensive side of the ball, after shedding the contract of free agents in recent years, like aging C Scott Wells and underwhelming, disappointing TE Jared Cook. Maybe G Saffold, who got his second contract in 2014 after OAK flunked his physical (joked about at the time, vindicated and look prescient in retrospect), and Robinson as a former #2 overall but so far slow to develop and badly underachieving LT will present a tricky negotiation, especially if he improves in the next few years (he is training with LeCharles Bentley's and reportedly looking good in the off-season). Fellow WRs Britt and Quick don't make much. Former second round (?) TE Lance Kendricks was re-signed before the 2015 season, he doesn't make as much as Cook did. RT Havenstein and G Jamon Brown came within 20 or so picks from the late second to early third round in the 2015 draft, so are signed for a while. Austin would be one of their few splurge-type expenses on that side of the ball.

Rams franchise contract info for 2016

http://overthecap.com/salary-cap/los-angeles-rams/                

Some of this (salary cap discussions) is relative. Chris Long was the highest paid Ram and made around $25 million in 2014-2015 combined (top 7 money, he was top 5 in total sacks from 2010-2013). He was injured both seasons, started in 11/18 games, missing 14, nearly a season and being ineffective in many others. He had 4 sacks and 14 solo tackles TOTAL in that combined two year stretch. To me, that was a better example of being grossly overpaid. Foles is one of the highest paid Rams due to the 2015 extension, and he is currently a backup to prohibitive favorite to start, Keenum (even if Lynch were drafted in the first round, he likely wouldn't play until later in the season - maybe a LOT later). William Hayes will be 31 this year. Good player (vastly outplayed Long since 2014), good re-signing, 3/21, so $7 million per year. They need him, but does he really have more upside for the overall roster composition than Austin, especially if he improves along with the offense and passing game as a whole if the OL and Gurley grow together, add a QB, maybe some rookie WR and TE reinforcements to groom as complements and/or replacements for Britt, Quick and the already departed Cook (also grossly overpaid in recent years, a TE that couldn't block on a running team and wasn't even that great at what he was ostensibly supposed to do well, he was straight line fast and could jump through the rafters, stiff, robotic, rounded cuts, didn't change direction well, not that competitive or good in the air, he was something like one of the top 3-5 highest paid TEs in the league which was completely absurd and hippo-preposserous ).      

Lastly and not leastly, look again at the above list, how many contracts from 2016? Not many (Marvin Jones, CIN teammate Sanu and Benjamin from CLE to SD among more notable ones, I think Jones and Sanu making about $8 million and $7 million, respectively?). How about 2015? 2014? If Austin may be thinking of what he could make in 2017, especially if he gets off to a good start on the way to a good season in 2016 (why wouldn't he?), those kind of figures he and his agent are envisioning could be higher than the league-wide WR contracts that in some cases were signed 2-3 years ago. Sure, the Rams could wait and see what happens next year, but how did that work out in the case of departed free agents Jenkins and McLeod (at least they should parlay the defections of half the secondary into third and fourth round comp picks in 2017). Jenkins price unexpectedly got bid up from probably $9 million a year ago to $12+ million, like a 30% increase. $8 million relative to $6 million (figure with the largest vote in the poll last time I checked), is about a 25% increase. What is the team cap going to be in 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020 when most of his contract would play out? Will $8 million to $9 million look like a lot in a half decade, 2020? GM Demoff doesn't backload contracts, but employs a pay as you go method, so that could look very reasonable in a few years. If they let him walk, they don't get a chance in a few years, like 2018 or 2019, and say wait, we changed our minds, $8 million to $9 million doesn't seem as much now. So maybe they overpay for a year, and reap the benefits in years 2-3-4? It would seem to be an improvement and seemingly far better spent money (given his upside and to see what he could do in better circumstances as he matures and evolves as a WR) than all the money that basically got thrown into a bonfire for Chris Long and Jared Cook the past few years.

Some people are getting confused by pretending the 400 rushing yards didn't happen. He had 900 combined yards. If you dismiss the 400 yards arbitrarily (which is close to HALF his output!) and call it 500 yards, obviously the peers won't look as good there as the ones in the 900 combined yard neighborhood. Regardless of how rare or relevant or important the rushing yards are deemed by sceptics, they still need to be included in his totals, they happened. Obviously if you arbitrarily cut in half ANY skill position players production and stats, their total will suffer in the comparison, and their stat peers could be made to look very different.           

 

[Bob Magaw]

Sanu just got paid $7+ million per year (third round pedigree in the 2012 draft).

Last year his combined yards/scores were 465/2, but that was only starting 4/16 games.

in 2013 (471/2) and 2014 (841/5), he started 27/32 games. 

56 receptions and 5 combined TDs in 2014 his career high, 71 rushing yards and his career 2 rushing TDs in 2015.    

 

[CalBear]

Didn't you spend thousands and thousands of lines telling us all how good Sam Bradford was as a QB? 

No one needs to cut Austin's production in half to say he is not worth $15M/year. He was 29th among WRs in yards from scrimmage in 2015, just ahead of James Jones, who's making $870K. 

 

[Bob Magaw]

You can also find WRs making a lot more last year that Austin greatly out-produced, if you aren't determined to interpret his potential in exclusively negative terms.

Didn't you use as an argument that Bradford wasn't good the now laughable argument that the Rams had better WRs than Rodgers in GB (that wasn't then, isn't now, or ever will be a credible or tenable theory about that era, and betrayed a massive blind spot and extreme bias about his context and situational factors)?  

Among which included, before a later switchy changey about face, Austin.

 

 

[Bob Magaw]

Austin is a gadget player who needs to be schemed for to be a playmaker and can't defeat press coverage.

He's a luxury player on an already very very good team brinking on the edge of contention. He is not a foundation player you build around. The Rams paying Austin, WR#2 money or above, would be about the same as the 49ers paying Ahmed Plummer big money simply because they had the money, were a bad team, he was a former high pick, and no one else to spend it on.

Good teams, with functional personnel people and analysts within stable franchises, wait for other teams to spend picks, cap space, roster space, developmental time, snaps and coaching to these gadget players, so that when those players finally learn to use their niche well ( i.e Ted Ginn), the 2nd or 3rd team reaps the real reward. Whereas traditional NFL prospects face the traditional "value path" i.e. teams want young players on rookie contracts outperforming those first contracts and giving those teams exponential value against practical market cost for production factoring in positional value, the "gadget player" tends to operate the complete opposite. His value is realized later in his career by a team who DID NOT PAY THAT DEVELOPMENTAL COST.

Paying Austin is like doubling down, after already doubling down, just to make your money back. It's how gamblers keep losing and it's how some GMs just beg for someone to fire them.

In the end, it doesn't matter, you don't care what anyone else says or the stats says or positional value says or league trends says, you've already decided it's a good decision by and for the Rams.

What kind of person shoots an arrow, then immediately runs up and paints the target right around where the arrow lands? Now we know.

Wouldn't it be a good move from the perspective of the "Getting Hosin for Rosen" conspiracy theory? Your operating assumption and grand, unifying, overarching working theory to interpret the Rams recent moves is that they are "tanking" for the next two to three seasons, for a QB that might be available in the 2018 or 2019 draft, if you are to be taken seriously, is that about the size of it (wouldn't want to misrepresent you - I mean, I'd hate to do that  )?  

* Not paying Austin and letting him break out further for somebody else is like folding when you were about to draw a straight or flush.

Not paying attention to situational factors in his three year tenure, such as how the Rams have bungled and incompetently employed Austin on an OC level (how many have they had since 2013?), his production has been impacted by an OL in near continual disarray and one of the most dire QB situations in recent years negatively impacting and suppressing his raw stats, instead substituting superficial clichés that gloss over any attempt at substantive analysis of his actual context, isn't necessarily a better read or take of the situation. 

** I've already amended my salary per year projection downwards, so you may not know what you are talking about as far as what I've already decided, or how open I am to alternate views. Like you haven't made up your mind, pot calling the kettle black?   

*** If you want to provide context of how awesome the Rams OCs have been during Austin's tenure, and how stellar the half a dozen QBs he has played about 8 games each with (that must be great for things like chemistry, timing and rapport in the passing game - brilliant!), have at it, illuminate the thread. Maybe specifics, though, if possible, not a post modern, deconstructionist delineation on semiotic and hermeneutic factors of the problem.     

 

[Bob Magaw]

Torrey Smith for SF in 2015 (making $8 million per year)

663/4 (combined yards/scores) YAY!

 

[CalBear]

You can also find WRs making a lot more last year that Austin greatly out-produced, if you aren't determined to interpret his potential in exclusively negative terms.

How much do you think the #29 WR in yards from scrimmage should be paid? 

 

[Bob Magaw]

That has to do with the Rams having one of the worst passing game situations OC and QB-wise during his tenure how?

Anyway, you first (you can't answer a question with a question, or by answering a question that wasn't asked), how many WRs in 2015 with fewer combined yards OR scores than Austin made more than $6 million last year (the current most popular poll answer). If the Rams think #29 is his absolute ceiling with better OCs, QB and OL, even though he played at times during his three year tenure with terrible OCs, QB and OL (though why they would think that is beyond me), than they will probably pay him differently than if they don't have those attendant assumptions and expectations.    

Vincent Jackson is listed with an $11 million contract in 2016. Playing nearly 2/3 of the 2015 season (10 games), he had 543/3 at 32. In 2014, 1002/2.

Michael Crabtree (similar top 10 overall pedigree to Austin, 29 in 2016) showing $8.5 million in 2016

922/9 in 2015 for OAK. 702/4 in 2014 (last year in SF). Make 2013 N/A due to injury. Career high 1,113/9 in 2012. 880/4 in 2011 (his third year, comparable stage of development to Austin). 741/6 in 2010. 625/2 in 2/3 of a rookie season (injury and holdout).  

Pierre Garcon showing $8 million in 2016

777/6 in 2015 (30 in 2016). 752/3 in 2014. A career year (in eight seasons) of 1,365/5 in 2013. 642/4 in about 2/3 of the 2012 season. 975/6 in 2011. 790/6 in 2010 (third season, comparable stage of development to Austin). 775/4 in 2009. 23/0 as a rookie in 2008.

I think Andre Johnson signed a 3/21 in 2015 ($7 million per). He was great, one of the best, but not much upside at this point. Past two years, last in HOU and first in IND (when he was 33 and 34, respectively):

503/4 in 2015. 936/3 in 2014 (not sure how much he made this season?).  

What did Roddy White (34 in 2015) and Mike Wallace make in 2015 (30 in 2016), and how did they do? What have they done recently?

White (last three years age 32-34). 506/1 in 2015. 921/7 in 2014. 711/3 in 2013.

Wallace. 479/2 in 2015 (one and done in MIN). 878/10 in 2014 and 963/5 in 2013, his two years in MIA. 843/8 in 2012, his last year in PIT.    

 

[CalBear]

Contracts are signed before seasons, so how much those players made in 2015 is completely irrelevant. How much they'd get paid in 2016 if they were free agents is relevant. Many of the players you list won't even be on a roster. 

 

[Bob Magaw]

RB/WR with <600 yards rushing, <600 yards receiving, 10+ TDs in the past 20 years:

Willis McGahee 2009

Stephen Davis 2005

Marcus Allen 1997

Larry Johnson 2004

Moe Williams 2002

Matt Asiata 2014

Tim Hightower 2008

Leroy Hoard 1999

Leroy Hoard 1998

Dorsey Levens 1996

Mike Tolbert 2011

Only three of these players (Levens, Hoard 1998, and LJ 2004) ever had 10 TDs again. LJ was hurt in 2004 or wouldn't have been in this class (he had 581 yards rushing in 10 games). So you've got two guys out of 10. One of them, Levens, was given the starting job the next season and got 329 carries (12 TD). The other, Hoard, got one more year of goal-line action before retiring. 

Not great.  

You could probably drop the WR in the RB/WR positional designator above?

This could be an answer to the Jeopardy question, Lists of 100% RBs that have nothing to do with WR multi-purpose weapons like Tavon Austin, Alex?

 

[Bob Magaw]

I think it depends more on the wr free agent market next year more than anything. If he were a fa this year, he probably would have banked. Fischer has been pulling the "we aren't using him correctly" line for 3 years. 

I think there are a lot of coordinators who would love to have a weapon like him but gms may not want to pay a lot for an "offensive weapon". 

Hard to say at this point if he's a Hester/cribbs type with more opportunities because of the talent deficiency of the rams or a sproles "Swiss army knife" type. Either way I suppose there's value, the best return men in the nfl have made a living although new kickoff rules make it less valuable. KR+ should make 4-6 mil. If he gets more than that I'll be surprised. Doubt there's an uptick in targets or anything this yr, running and defense will be their gameplan.  

How much would you pay a wr you picked in the top 10 when this year wr is one of your biggest needs? Can the rams afford to lose him? They have a lot of playmakers on defense to pay, they may have to let someone go to keep what little playmaking they have on offense. If they don't pick up the option, why not test the market or try to find a  team with a better qb situation if you're Tavon? Good post-i don't follow the rams and learned a lot about their cap/long term situation from this topic. 

I've tried to make this point, the free agent landscape may look different in 2017. His contract years could be for 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, the cap will be a lot higher, $7-$8-$9 million may not seem like that much a half decade from now. Many of the WRs playing today are working on deals signed 2-3 or more years ago, which may little resemble what the going rate is in the next free agent cycle (effectively 3-4 years later)? Agree to disagree returner money should guide contract negotiations, thanks for the input.

 

[Bob Magaw]

The point being was by comparison, Austin was much better value in 2015 than many WRs who were making more than the numbers discussed in this thread in recent seasons. That is relevant to the discussion, it bears on relative value now, and going forward. Their body of work existed BEFORE they signed said contracts, many instances where they haven't been appreciably better than Austin at any point in their career. Your narrowly circumscribed perspective isn't the only possible interpretation of the evidence in reckoning the best way to calculate his value.

Torrey Smith will be on the SF roster.

Vincent Jackson with TB.

Crabtree was just extended by OAK.

I'm not assuming Garcon won't be in WAS, missed the memo he is a definite cut.

Wallace was signed by BAL at nearly $6 million per year, so what he has done recently is absolutely relevant.

It would also have been accurate to say that many of the WRs on this list will be with their same team (or in the case of Wallace, his new contract in 2016 given his recent production is relevant to determining Austin's value in 2016 or 2017).        

 

[CalBear]

Every receiver you list has been appreciably better than Austin at some point in their career. 1300 yards and #8 in the NFL in receiving yards (Garcon) is appreciably better than 900 yards from scrimmage and #29 amongst NFL WRs. 1100/9 is way better than 900/10. Andre Johnson, Roddy White were NFL stars; it's completely ridiculous to compare their contracts to Austin's. 

But whatever. Go write another Tolstoy novel about how you're dead wrong again.

 

[Bob Magaw]

Every receiver you list has been appreciably better than Austin at some point in their career. 1300 yards and #8 in the NFL in receiving yards (Garcon) is appreciably better than 900 yards from scrimmage and #29 amongst NFL WRs. 1100/9 is way better than 900/10. Andre Johnson, Roddy White were NFL stars; it's completely ridiculous to compare their contracts to Austin's. 

But whatever. Go write another Tolstoy novel about how you're dead wrong again.

Johnson and White weren't being paid in recent years for in their prime time machine versions from the past, but their mid-30s iterations. Its completely ridiculous to overlook what going rates for WRs have been in recent years, BASED ON THEIR ACTUAL AGE AND PERFORMANCE, not what happened in days of yore.

But whatever, go write another laughably biased hatchet job like your dead wrong theory that the Rams had better WRs than the Packers with Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb. Thanks for playing the home version of BLIND SPOT.

 

[ZWK]

From Over The Cap, here's a list of all WRs making $3M-$9M per year (who are not on their rookie contract):

$M    Player    Team
8.7    Brandon Marshall    Jets
8.5    Michael Crabtree    Raiders
8.5    Pierre Garcon    Redskins
8.4    Antonio Brown    Steelers
8.0    Marvin Jones    Lions
8.0    DeSean Jackson    Redskins
8.0    Torrey Smith    49ers
7.3    Eric Decker    Jets
7.2    Victor Cruz    Giants
7.0    Andre Johnson    Colts
6.5    Mohamed Sanu    Falcons
6.5    Dwayne Bowe    Browns
6.2    Golden Tate    Lions
6.0    Travis Benjamin    Chargers
6.0    Anquan Boldin    49ers
6.0    Percy Harvin    Bills
6.0    Roddy White    Falcons
5.8    Mike Wallace    Ravens
5.0    Eddie Royal    Bears
5.0    Emmanuel Sanders    Broncos
5.0    Rishard Matthews    Titans
4.8    Danny Amendola    Patriots
4.6    Kenny Britt    Rams
4.5    Jermaine Kearse    Seahawks
4.5    Riley Cooper    Eagles
4.3    Doug Baldwin    Seahawks
4.3    Julian Edelman    Patriots
4.0    Chris Hogan    Patriots
4.0    Andre Roberts    Redskins
4.0    Greg Jennings    Dolphins
3.9    Malcom Floyd    Chargers
3.8    Harry Douglas    Titans
3.7    Jarius Wright    Vikings
3.5    Dwayne Harris    Giants
3.5    Steve Johnson    Chargers
3.5    Steve Smith    Ravens
3.5    Marques Colston    Saints
3.4    Cole Beasley    Cowboys
3.4    Andrew Hawkins    Browns
3.0    Devin Hester    Falcons
3.0    Brandon LaFell    Patriots
3.0    Brian Hartline    Browns
3.0    Dexter McCluster    Titans
3.0    Cecil Shorts    Texans

There are some obviously overpaid guys here and some obviously underpaid guys. But looking at the overall trend, the guys making over $7M/year stand out as a higher caliber of receiver (or at least they were expected to be a higher caliber of receiver). The guys making below $3.5M stand out as inferior players or role players. There isn't much relationship between salary and performance in the $3.5-7M range, which makes it somewhat tricky to slot a player in within that range. But it looks like Austin should be somewhere in there.

 

[Bob Magaw]

Good research, thanks. Sounds reasonable, I could stand corrected on some of this. I predict Austin will fall somewhere in the upper bound of that range (or possibly exceed it), if 2015 is any indication of his projected usage in 2016 (and Fisher makes good on his promise to try to involve him more in the future). We'll probably find out some time in 2016.

 

[CalBear]

Johnson and White weren't being paid in recent years for in their prime time machine versions from the past, but their mid-30s iterations. Its completely ridiculous to overlook what going rates for WRs have been in recent years, BASED ON THEIR ACTUAL AGE AND PERFORMANCE, not what happened in days of yore.

But whatever, go write another laughably biased hatchet job like your dead wrong theory that the Rams had better WRs than the Packers with Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb. Thanks for playing the home version of BLIND SPOT.

It's definitely easier to argue with someone when you make up their arguments for them. Go find the posts you're referring to. If you didn't decide to censor them.

 

[Bob Magaw]

I did find the relevant post I had in mind and you can easily find similar ones yourself.

One talked about the Packers being nothing special (such as Cobb) other than Nelson. Many about the QB making the WR, as if this was relevant to the Rams not being as good as the Packers.

There were instances where purely personal attack posts having nothing to do with football (actual or fantasy) were "censored", but you know there is a precedent for that.

I don't have anything to add here, I take leave of your fascinating and inimitable conversational stylings, if you want to argue this position, feel free to do so without any further exchanges from me, continued re-re-re-hashing-hashing-hashing ancient history that nobody else cares about clearly doesn't serve any constructive purpose from my perspective. Good luck this season. And next season. And the season after that.  

 

[CalBear]

I said that the Packers receivers outside of Nelson have been nothing special, and in 2015 I was proven to be entirely correct. Despite having probably the best QB in the league, no receiver passed 900 yards; Cobb finished with an RB-like 10.5 yards per reception. As a result, Rodgers had one of his weakest seasons, but he still finished as:

• #10 in passing TD and passing TD %
  
• #7 in fantasy scoring
  
• #2 in interception percentage
  

Compare that to Bradford, who has never finished in the top 10 in any passing category.

Oh and by the way, with Nick Foles at QB, Desean Jackson went for over 1300 yards and 9 TDs. 

 

[Borden]

I voted 8 million but I thought about it a bit differently. Was thinking that his agent would say "We want Marvin Jones money." Which probably isn't too crazy. Then the Rams would sign him to a 4 year contract of 6 million year one, then 7, 9, 10. So, that they can cut him if things don't work out. Or if the salary cap goes up. This is with the idea that they use him more. 

I don't care about the gadget player issue. Defensive players get used all over the formation and they're versatile/jokers/hybrids. Offensive players get used all over and they are gadget players. 

One of the things that make Belichick the best is that he adapts (not completely changes) his systems for the strength of his players. Two stud TEs? Double TEs sets. Randy Moss? Air it out to him. This drives me nuts. Get the ball to your best players. Austin with 9 TDs is one of their best players. Is he an elite wide receiver? No. Could he be an elite offensive player? Maybe. Gurley is the center piece but Tavon is serious threat that has to be game planned for by the defense and he should also have more manufactured touches by the OC. Get your play maker the ball and let them work. 

 

[Bob Magaw]

I don't have anything to add here, I take leave of your fascinating and inimitable conversational stylings, if you want to argue this position, feel free to do so without any further exchanges from me, continued re-re-re-hashing-hashing-hashing ancient history that nobody else cares about clearly doesn't serve any constructive purpose from my perspective. Good luck this season. And next season. And the season after that.  

 

[Bob Magaw]

I voted 8 million but I thought about it a bit differently. Was thinking that his agent would say "We want Marvin Jones money." Which probably isn't too crazy. Then the Rams would sign him to a 4 year contract of 6 million year one, then 7, 9, 10. So, that they can cut him if things don't work out. Or if the salary cap goes up. This is with the idea that they use him more. 

I don't care about the gadget player issue. Defensive players get used all over the formation and they're versatile/jokers/hybrids. Offensive players get used all over and they are gadget players. 

One of the things that make Belichick the best is that he adapts (not completely changes) his systems for the strength of his players. Two stud TEs? Double TEs sets. Randy Moss? Air it out to him. This drives me nuts. Get the ball to your best players. Austin with 9 TDs is one of their best players. Is he an elite wide receiver? No. Could he be an elite offensive player? Maybe. Gurley is the center piece but Tavon is serious threat that has to be game planned for by the defense and he should also have more manufactured touches by the OC. Get your play maker the ball and let them work. 

I see things very similarly. You make some other good points I hadn't thought about, after doing so, agree. On the bonus plan, civil tenor appreciated.

 

[msommer]

I was shocked at the Marvin Jones contract. Like the player but he really hasn't shown he is worth that much. So, yeah, maybe Austin can finagle an extension along those numbers, but my money is on the lower end of that if he extends without being a free agent for a few months

 

[Bob Magaw]

Jones CIN body of work

2013 - 248/1 in 2/3 of a season (11 games) 

2014 - 777/10

2015 - 849/4

Good WRs in their prime don't make it to free agency a lot, which seemingly can artificially pump up and inflate the value of the first two to three contracts signed, whoever happens to be the top prospects at that position in a given year. Demand exceeding supply = recipe for a price increase. That said, I like Marvin Jones, I wouldn't have minded if the Rams spent that on him. But I think they have a lot of money earmarked for internal free agents like Trumaine Johnson, Alec Ogletree, possibly Austin, Michael Brockers and T.J. McDonald. Already signed Barron and Hayes that fall into that category, and signed modest deals with "outside" free agents for DE depth in Coples and FOJF (acronym for Friend Of Jeff Fisher, i.e. - having a TEN background) CB Sensabaugh. And 2017 will be Donald's fourth year already.  

 

[Tau837]

In the end, it doesn't matter, you don't care what anyone else says or the stats says or positional value says or league trends says, you've already decided it's a good decision by and for the Rams.

What kind of person shoots an arrow, then immediately runs up and paints the target right around where the arrow lands? Now we know.

 

[Tau837]

I don't have anything to add here, I take leave of your fascinating and inimitable conversational stylings, if you want to argue this position, feel free to do so without any further exchanges from me, continued re-re-re-hashing-hashing-hashing ancient history that nobody else cares about clearly doesn't serve any constructive purpose from my perspective. Good luck this season. And next season. And the season after that.  

at you criticizing someone else for continued "re-re-re-hashing-hashing-hashing." As if you haven't been doing that since you started two threads to discuss your take on Austin's worth.

 

[Bob Magaw]

Maybe we can break into individual discussion groups about the 2-3 season LONG TANK Hosin For Rosen theory? 

Anybody else find that tenable or credible? I think the idea of "gutting" the team was floated. For a QB that MIGHT be a top prospect in 2018 or 2019. And MIGHT turn out to be something at the next level.

In that scenario, could the signing of Austin to a larger than warranted contract be an example of conscious sabotage that would make sense interpreted in that light.

 

 

[Anarchy99]

STL hasn't had a great offense, has had mediocre QB play, and maybe underutilized Austin's role. But there is a counter argument to that. The Rams haven't had much competition at the WR spot. Austin could have easily staked a claim to being a legit WR1, yet he hasn't. Since he joined the league, there really hasn't been anyone blocking his path.

Over his career, Austin has ranked 45th, 66th, and 69th in terms of targets at the WR position. And last year he led the Rams in targets. Sure, he has some additional value running the ball or returning kicks. But his yards per carry (8.3) last season was almost better than his yards per reception (9.1). By comparison, those departing CIN (Jones and Sanu) were well behind Green (and last year had Eifert to deal with as well).

As another comparison, Josh Gordon played on a mediocre team with mediocre talent, mediocre coaching and play calling, and mediocre QBs. Yet the year he was allowed to play, his numbers crushed what Austin has done for the Rams. That's what happens when dynamic, impact players get a chance, even on lousy teams. Gordon's ypr (18.9) in 2014 was more than double that of Austin's (9.1) last season. And Gordon's QBs were Jason Campbell, Brandon Wheeden, and Brian Hoyer, so he wasn't exactly playing with first ballot HOFers. That's probably an unfair comparison, but it's not that crazy as it may look.

I can't really speak to why things have turned out the way they have for Austin. I rarely, if ever, get to see the Rams play. Maybe they don't use him enough or their play calling is horrible. But if the Rams consider paying him like a top receiver, they are probably going to end up overspending.

If he as good as some of the hype in this thread, then he should build on last year and have a much better season this year and emerge as a true NFL WR1. If he doesn't, then he will hit free agency and will be in the bucket of second or third free agent receivers looking for a new home.

 

[Bob Magaw]

Gordon had a historically good season in 14 games. It is probably safe to say for every Gordon, there are dozens or hundreds of WRs not like Gordon, that don't put up prolific, historically good receiving numbers with lesser QBs. Obviously there is plenty of room for him to be "not as good as Gordon", but still be underrated in terms of potential upside. Also, while it is great that Gordon did well in challenging circumstances, and maybe Austin hasn't, if the Rams do have upside from the worst in the league passing game by some metrics in 2015, have improved coaching (OC Boras looked promising once taking over for Cignetti), if a young OL gains experience and continuity (the chemistry, rapport and timing required to play together AS A UNIT AND ENSEMBLE at a high level is so critically important but has been denied during much of Austin's tenure), and upgrade at QB for career backup or UFA types like Clemens, Hill, Davis and Keenum in recent years, and Austin DOES better UNSURPRISINGLY in different circumstances more favorable and conducive to success, than what Gordon did under different circumstances won't have much relevance to AUSTIN'S success.  

Other than if some think the Rams will always be as inept on offense as they have been in recent years (in which case I agree Austin isn't nearly as well equipped to surmount that kind of state of affairs as Gordon was), it is unclear what if anything Gordon reveals here?

There was some confusion about "franchise tag" from not reading the first few sentences of the OP. The consensus,, including ESPN beat writer Nick Wagoner and myself, finds that unlikely.

If he makes $7 million to $8 million, I'm not sure that constitutes "top WR" money. Is Sanu a "top WR"? Again, that may not look like a lot of money in 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020.

I don't think of Austin as a "WR1". He is a multi-purpose weapon. If he raises his receiving stats to 800 yards, that isn't conventional WR1 production. But if he continues to augment that with historically good rushing production from the position, and score better than many so called WR1s, who cares whether he is characterized as a WR1 or not, it is missing the point of what he is, and how he does it.

* For instance, if the Rams were to draft a nominal WR1 type like Treadwell at 1.15, I actually think that could be good for Austin. It would deflect attention away and create more opportunity to operate in space, where he could flourish and thrive.

 

[Anarchy99]

"Historically good rushing production" is a bit exaggerated. Anytime a player is pimped for a secondary attribute, it usually means he is lacking in his primary function or it's an oddball stat. For example, does anyone really care that LaDainian Tomlinson was the best passing RB in the modern era? Lots of people argued Hines Ward's value shot up because some felt he was the best blocking WR. Or that LB Mike Vrabel had 12 career receiving TD.

As I see it, Austin is unlikely to get 50+ carries, 400+ rushing yards, and 4 TD rushing the football next year. percy Harvin had 50 rushes one season and never came close to that again. Same thing for Josh Cribbs. 

Circling back, since Austin came into the league (2013-2015), for WRs with at least 15 games played, he ranks 62nd in yards from scrimmage at 44.14 yards per game in that 3 year period.

My life won't change no matter what Austin signs for, but if it is much more than $5 million a season, he's probably getting overpaid. Just because other players sign for more money doesn't make them good signings.