Portis - 1st round pick or still living in Denver (1 Viewer)

[Big Score]

Bottom line, if you're lucky enough to get Portis in the second round or later, you done good!

 

[nflguru]

Look here if you want to see a video compilation of all of Portis' touches (8 rushes, 1 rec.) from last night.

BTW, the kid (he's 17) who runs this site looks like he's going to compile video every week, so bookmark that site if you have 'Skins players you can't watch live.

Thanks for the clip, he doesn't look bad - some decent holes opened up for him. Screen play looked like it would turn out bad, but a decent gain. He needs to sell the pass down field better, anytime you see the qb tip toe backwards like that - you know its a screen.

 

[redman]

1) that offense is not geared to throw the ball to the RB's, and to the extent they are, Gibbs loves Betts in that role; and

I read and like a lot of your stuff redman, but I think the above is off. If we go by last year (which conincidentally, is the only year of history we have to go with, as far as it concerns Portis, Betts & Gibbs) Portis, by far & away, was Gibbs favored pass catching RB. Portis was the 9th most frequently targeted RB in regards to passes to RB's in the entire NFL last year, with 63 targets.

Betts was a small blip on the radar (60th most targeted RB with 25). In fact in the Skins last game of the year, when Portis was out and Betts was the featured runner, he was only targted in the passing game once! so I'm not exactly sure where you're getting the, "that offense is not geared to throw the ball to the RB's", or "Gibbs loves Betts in that role" stuff?

2) While we didn't get to see a goalline situation tonight, it still appears that either Broughton or Cartwright or both will vulture TD's from Portis. 

I have heard nothing concrete from either the Redskins Coaches in particular, or the Redskins organization in general, to back this statement up.I have read various beat writers speculate, insinuate and make general inuendos that they think this might happen.

I don't normally put a whole lot of stock in what beat writers put out, unless there's some corroberating info from a reliable source. Especially this time of year, when speculative stories seem to take on a life of their own.

Perhaps you'll end up being proven right on both points. However, I based those comments on the following:1) I just went and looked up Gibbs' teams on pro-football-reference.com. The only years in which the RB who had the most carries also had the most receptions were 1981 (Joe Washington had 70 catches; this was Gibbs' first year and Riggins held out all year), 1990 (Ernest Byner had 31 catches), 1991 (Ernest Byner had 34 catches) and 1992 (Ernest Byner had 39 catches). So in 12 seasons you have four occasions when the lead RB also had the most catches. The 1981 season is out because Gibbs had no one except Joe Washington, who was supposed to be his change of pace back. If you look more closely at the 1990-92 years, you'll see that the other RB's weren't really known as pass catchers. The sole exception was Kelvin Bryant in 1990 who had almost as many catches (26) as Byner did, but who was also at the tail end of his career and was always suffering from nagging injuries by then.

What does this mean then? Gibbs tends to like to have a primary rusher and a primary pass catcher out of the backfield, and he prefers not to have them be the same guy. Portis, who's a good receiver will be used more than, say, Riggins was - for example, Gibbs is running screens now whereas that was a play that for whatever reason he never used before. But Betts is the change of pace back and to date I think he's a better pass catcher than a runner.

This gets me to last year. Gibbs admits that he didn't correctly evaluate some players' abilities last year. Cooley is one example (underused early); Betts is another one. He's going to use Betts more, and I think that use is going to be as a 3rd down/change of pace back. Note that Betts averaged more than one yard per catch more than Portis did last year. That fact plus the fact that they had little option but to throw short to anyone who was short last year, which obviously includes the RB's, leads me to my conclusion that the RB's and Portis in particular are not going to get a lot of throws. This will be mitigated to a degree by the offense being better and therefore being on the field more, however they also have Cooley there competing for short and intermediate range passes, and he's the best pass catching H-back/TE Gibbs has ever had. If I had to put a number on it, I'd predict around 25-30 receptions for Portis, with Betts getting 35-40.

2) I'm basing the use of a goalline back upon what I'm seeing from Broughton and Cartwright, and what I've seen of Gibbs both during his prior tenure and also last year. Aside from Joe Washington (who again was not supposed to be used as a lead back in 1981 but for Riggins' hold out), Portis is the smallest RB1 Gibbs has ever had with the exception of Ernest Byner. Riggins was 240; Rogers was 230. Byner was IIRC 210 or 215. While Riggins and Rogers remained in the game at the goalline, Byner was pulled at the goalline in favor of Gerald Riggs at 230 lbs.

Fast forward to 2004. Portis got pulled at the goalline on a number of occasions in favor of Rock Cartwright. If you pull up Cartwright's numbers, he was one of the better short yardage runners in the NFL last year based upon conversions of 3rd/4th down conversions or "and goal" situations. In other words there was nothing to discourage the continuation of that trend. This year, they got Nehemiah Broughton, who is a behemoth at around 250 lbs. In the first two games he scored short yardage rushing TD's and the coaching staff is raving about him. Last night, in the third game, Cartwright rushed in a 10 yard run. Even though Portis had already been pulled from the game by that point, Cartwright is still showing he's capable carrying the ball.

Don't get me wrong. I think Portis is going to lead the team in rushing by a large margin, and he figures to have the most rushing TD's, although that's dependent upon how much the team decides to use a goalline back. And 25 receptions should get him at least an additional 150-200 yards. But you're going to be let down IMHO if you're expecting him to be used like Ladanian Tomlinson or Priest Holmes in this offense.

EDIT - I just went back to check my prediction above. It was:

290/1480/11 35/280/1

I may have been a tad optimistic on the receptions there; OTOH, I might likewise have been a bit conservative on his yards per carry based on the line play I've been seeing. I think the total yards and TD's figures are about right.

 

[Big Score]

Good post redman. Now that you break it down for a simpleton like myself, your logic is solid

 

[nflguru]

redmanYour projections look good. Looking at his last year td production, 11 tds seem high, but possible if the o-line plays well and he stays healthy (also if he gets the goal-line carries and is not pulled as you mentioned)

 

[redman]

Hopefully this season has put to rest the idea that Portis was merely a "system back" in Denver who was overrated.

 

[turkishkamel]

Hopefully this season has put to rest the idea that Portis was merely a "system back" in Denver who was overrated.

1516 yds 11tds 4.3 avg. the kids good.

 

[cscmtp]

over 1700 total yards, 11 rushing tds, and i think he had a couple of passing TDs too...he's a top half of the first round RB next year IMO.

 

[jurb26]

Hopefully this season has put to rest the idea that Portis was merely a "system back" in Denver who was overrated.

 

[redman]

I just went back and looked at my projections during the pre-season:290/1480/11 rushing35/280/1 receivingI was a little aggressive on the ypc, but the fact that I undershot the total carries negated that. I was also a little aggressive on the receiving yardage, but the fact that I still undershot the rushing yardage got me basically right on on the total yards (I was over by 38). I nailed the rushing TD's, but was wrong in predicting he'd score a receiving TD (he didn't). Turns out I had a pretty good feel for the way this team was trying to go this year. Now if I can only replicate that 31 other times each year, I'll be unstoppable!