Sugar Huddle
Footballguy
Does this guy have 3-4 years left or more like 1-2? I'm thinking that if there's no football next year he might be done after 2010. What do the sharks think?
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Portis (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Sugar Huddle
- Start date
In terms of fantasy validity -My guess would be closer to 3-4 GAMES than 3-4 years.And that ~ 3-4 games is likely to be spread out over this year and next.He was the guy that for a couple years made it seem like a great idea to draft Ladell Betts!Wheels fall off any day now.
wormburner
Footballguy
My question is does Shanahan pull a Todd Haley and waste 3/4 of a season with L.J., or do we hop on the Ryan Torain train now and expect good things sooner rather than later?
loose circuits
Footballguy
not looking good for Torain since Parker just passed him on the DC
wormburner
Footballguy
I thought Parker was DOA. Shanahan doing his famous rb misdirection, maybe?
dehaven123
Footballguy
Tough to say.
My guess would be more on the 1-2 side, if that.
I'll say this, the guy is gonna get pushed for playing time.
This aint the same Portis that Gibbs was partial to. That monster work horse w/ the monopoly on carries he had.
LJ has looked strong in practice, Torain looked really good against the Ills, even Keiland looked pretty decent.
Parker just moved to up past those 2 to 3rd on the depth chart as well!
Lots of competition.
Just like Shanny in Denver. You cant dismiss Mike Shinytan's history w/ RB's.
That is the prevailing fact to take away from the situation that does not bode very well for Portis' future prospects in DC.
My guess would be more on the 1-2 side, if that.
I'll say this, the guy is gonna get pushed for playing time.
This aint the same Portis that Gibbs was partial to. That monster work horse w/ the monopoly on carries he had.
LJ has looked strong in practice, Torain looked really good against the Ills, even Keiland looked pretty decent.
Parker just moved to up past those 2 to 3rd on the depth chart as well!
Lots of competition.
Just like Shanny in Denver. You cant dismiss Mike Shinytan's history w/ RB's.
That is the prevailing fact to take away from the situation that does not bode very well for Portis' future prospects in DC.
SproutDaddy
Footballguy
Sorry, but this analysis is way off. How quick people forget about Curtis Martin leading the league in rushing after battling injuries for 2 years and being 31. Portis is 28. He's the best RB on the roster. They've retooled the OL and upgraded at QB. He should be serviceable for this year and maybe next. In no way is he 3 or 4 games away from being relevant barring some major injury.
sorry dude, hate to be the bearer of bad news, but Portis is not the same back that became a star by blowing the doors off with 1500 yard seasons.
he has one year left in the tank if Shanny decides he will be the starter. From the sound of things, he has a man crush on LJ. That crush may or may not have faded, but LJ does not have the same amount of miles on the odometer, so I think it more likely he has more left in the tank(so to speak).
either way, Shanny has a reputation of not starting the guy you think will start. From a fantasy perspective, that scares the hell outta me.
If you can unload Portis, I recommend you do it now while hes still #1 on the depth chart.
he has one year left in the tank if Shanny decides he will be the starter. From the sound of things, he has a man crush on LJ. That crush may or may not have faded, but LJ does not have the same amount of miles on the odometer, so I think it more likely he has more left in the tank(so to speak).
either way, Shanny has a reputation of not starting the guy you think will start. From a fantasy perspective, that scares the hell outta me.
If you can unload Portis, I recommend you do it now while hes still #1 on the depth chart.
SproutDaddy
Footballguy
I never said he was what he once was, but to say he's washed up is jumping the gun a little. People around here are quick to write folks off. Don't read too much into things and presume things I didn't say.
TheFanatic
Footballguy
This is a complete fallacy that no matter how many times I bring it up, it keeps rearing it's ugly, false head. It has nothing to do with miles. It has to do with age. Portis is 28, LJ is 30. Guys don't heal as fast because of age, not carries or tread on the tires or whatever. It seems to make sense logically, but in reality it is an urban myth. The statistics bear this out. And in fact the guys that have the heavier workload earlier tend to have the longer careers over guys with "low mileage."
LJ had a 2.9 YPC on the Chiefs last year while Jamaal Charles had a 5.9 YPC behind the exact same line. Portis missed half the season but at least he was averaging a 4.0 before he went down.
I'm not saying that Portis is going to blow the doors of the league or be the next Curtis Martin ( I own none of these guys in any league), but the whole mileage thing has got to be stopped. It has no bearing on longevity in the league.
Sure he was hurt last year, but I'm not sure why many people are expecting such a drop off.
If he stays healthy, and no reason to believe not, I expect close to 1000 total yards and 6-8 TDs. Not bad for where he is being drafted.
As an aside, he went to high school in Gainesville. How did Florida let him get away? Or was that simply the height of popularity for the U?
If he stays healthy, and no reason to believe not, I expect close to 1000 total yards and 6-8 TDs. Not bad for where he is being drafted.
As an aside, he went to high school in Gainesville. How did Florida let him get away? Or was that simply the height of popularity for the U?
TheFanatic
Footballguy
Didn't Betts just sign with the Saints? If you think the guy's so washed up you might want to check the Skins depth chart and look for a bargain, but it ain't Betts
Sopranos25
Footballguy
Untill last season i would say 2-3 years. He broke out early. RB's hit their prime in the 3rd year. Portis came on early and at 23 to 24 he was really good.his injuries have really slowed him. Tis is a make or brake year. Is ADP has been really low for a guy that can be top 10. If he has a year like last or doesnt perform in the top 15 or so the he is done. IMO in a dynasty NOW is the time to move him. He may have a good year but you can get value now. If not he isnt worth much at all..
Sopranos25
Footballguy
saintsfan
Footballguy
I watched Keiland Williams in college and I'm just going to say that he's Jeckyl and Hyde. I don't know if it was the coaching (possible with Les Miles at the helm) or laziness on Keiland's part, but he showed flashes at LSU but could never put it together.I would be shocked if, all of a sudden, he became a good NFL back. Admittedly, I have not followed him this offseason, so maybe he's finally put it all together.
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Yellow Line is Unoffcial
Footballguy
Redskin depth chart is a joke, Shanny's always have been. Torin gains 62 yards first game and is passed on the depth chart by a guy that didn't play. Mike Bell, Tatum Bell anyone? I'll believe my eyes not Rat Shanahan's preseason depth charts.loose circuits said:
Mister CIA
Footballguy
If Portis finishes top 10-20 this year, I'll be one of the last to show interest. He's an afterthought to me in same fashion Shaun Alexander was a few years ago.
If I may use FBG cliche, the wheels fall off fast, often.
If I may use FBG cliche, the wheels fall off fast, often.
Eradicator
Footballguy
This is a complete fallacy that no matter how many times I bring it up, it keeps rearing it's ugly, false head. It has nothing to do with miles. It has to do with age. Portis is 28, LJ is 30. Guys don't heal as fast because of age, not carries or tread on the tires or whatever. It seems to make sense logically, but in reality it is an urban myth.
You really shouldn't brow beat people by proclaiming something that is clearly subjective as fact.
On the contrary, I find it ridiculous to assert that wear and tear has no impact and genuinely absurd to assert that it helps. Wear and tear (injury) requires healing which creates muscular scar tissue. Once scar tissue is created, it neither heals as fast nor performs as well.
You really shouldn't brow beat people by proclaiming something that is clearly subjective as fact.
On the contrary, I find it ridiculous to assert that wear and tear has no impact and genuinely absurd to assert that it helps. Wear and tear (injury) requires healing which creates muscular scar tissue. Once scar tissue is created, it neither heals as fast nor performs as well.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
17 carries for 62 yards (3.6 ypc) is somehow good?
I agree with this...the good ones tend to have what I call a "hiccup" year...one last hurrah on their way to decline. As you pointed it out, Martin had it, jamal Lewis had it in 2007, Eddie George had it in 2002, even Walter payton had one in 1984 (although he had two good seasons after). Maybe Portis had his in 2008 when he snapped off 1487 yards and 9 TDs, but to put the guy in the grave (especially at his current ADP) seems premature...I don't think anyone plans on having him as their RB1 (or maybe even RB2 in 12 team leagues and less), so I am almost wondering what the whole debate is about. He should at least put up RB3 numbers and that is really what you are eyeing him'drafting him for, correct?SproutDaddy said:
PlasmaDogPlasma
Footballguy
That was actually the height of the Fun n' Gun, but somehow they missed on Portis. He was originally going to go to South Carolina, but they dropped their offer after a fight he had in high school.houston said:
TheFanatic
Footballguy
Those that have a heavy workload early, have been shown to handle that heavy workload much later in their careers. This is fact. Age is a much better determining factor for the wheels falling off than mileage and it's not even close. Do the research yourself. This site has a search function. Dodds or Drinen did the study (can't remember which). We bring it up every year and I believe it has already been discussed this offseason at least twice.
I'll say it again, mileage makes perfect sense in our minds but it does not have any bearing on longevity. You may see that as brow beating, but it is not intended that way. Then again, you call it "genuinely absurd," when in fact it is absolutely true. Those that take a beating early and often tend to have the longer career than those that are late starters with seemingly less mileage. It's hard to get your head around initially, but once you see the research you will understand.
Until more people open their eyes, this fallacy of an argument will continue to rear it's ugly head.
TheFanatic
Footballguy
I thought that LJ had low miles so he should be fine? Guess the Skins didn't get the memo that low miles meant he could keep on running despite his age...
switz
Footballguy
good GREAT
dgreen
Footballguy
No. LJ wasn't getting any carries anyway.
