Possible SP bargains? (1 Viewer)

[pollardsvision]

just trying to get some opinions on some of these these guys as breakout candidates (or just good bargains) who posted strong peripherals over the 2nd half last season.

personally, i like to keep it simple and look at guys who strikeout alot of batters and don't walk many. i'm just looking at 2nd half K/BB and K/9 rates here. interpret as you wish.

-javier vazquez- borderline frontline guy that owners never seem to want posted 4.38 K/BB and 9.39 K/9 over the 2nd half

-james shields-4.00 K/BB, 7.17 K/9. nice candidate for a stud SP2 that you can get after rd. 10.

-jeff francis-2.93, 7.73. another great SP 2 to get late.

-matt cain-3.00, 8.07. i don't chase wins, so he'll be on alot of my teams.

-j.maine-2.49, 9.63. #s backup his strong '07 performance.

-ian snell-2.4, 8.28

-b. arroyo-3.24, 7.36. nobody ever wants him, but his #s back him up.

-d.mcgowan-2.64, 7.99. everyone's on to him, but likely with good reason.

-wainwright-2.57,6.95. conversion to SP started going well in 2nd half

-s.baker-3.59,5.99.

-jer. weaver-3.73,5.93. now might be the time with hype gone.

-s.marcum-2.49, 6.91

-c.james-2.75, 6.22

-m.owings-2.79, 6.56

some really late round guys who could really payoff?

-a.sonnanstine-3.1, 6.54

-garza-2.07, 7.2

-capuano-3.1, 8.24. with those #s, i won't give up on him. SP2 potential that's dirt cheap.

-gavin floyd-3.13, 6.58. i don't know much about him, but those are strong peripherals.

-m. belisle-2.76, 6.93

anybody got any opinions on these guys or others? reasons why you don't see them being productive or do?

 

[shadyridr]

-james shields-4.00 K/BB, 7.17 K/9. nice candidate for a stud SP2 that you can get after rd. 10.-matt cain-3.00, 8.07. i don't chase wins, so he'll be on alot of my teams.-j.maine-2.49, 9.63. #s backup his strong '07 performance.-ian snell-2.4, 8.28-d.mcgowan-2.64, 7.99. everyone's on to him, but likely with good reason.-wainwright-2.57,6.95. conversion to SP started going well in 2nd half-jer. weaver-3.73,5.93. now might be the time with hype gone.-s.marcum-2.49, 6.91anybody got any opinions on these guys or others? reasons why you don't see them being productive or do?

These are the guys Im targeting. Id also add Zack Grienke to the mix.

 

[Gaddis]

I'm big on Shields and Marcum. A lot of people will be scared off by Shields due to the division he pitches in, but he showed great consistency last year (OK, he did have a really tough outing agains the Yanks late in the season ... but who didn't?). Marcum showed a lot of potential for a no-name guy. I think he'll surprise some people as a full-time starter.

 

[ScottNorwood]

-gavin floyd-3.13, 6.58. i don't know much about him, but those are strong peripherals.

I remember Floyd used to be a fairly highly touted prospect with the Phillies. One peripheral you're missing is HR/9. The guy gave up 17 HRs in 70 innings. That's terrible.

 

[pollardsvision]

I'm big on Shields and Marcum. A lot of people will be scared off by Shields due to the division he pitches in, but he showed great consistency last year (OK, he did have a really tough outing agains the Yanks late in the season ... but who didn't?). Marcum showed a lot of potential for a no-name guy. I think he'll surprise some people as a full-time starter.

pitching against the yankees must feel like trying to wade through an alligator filled swamp without gettting bitten.

 

[Knightro]

Marcum is iffy because he was pounded in the 2nd half of the season last year (using ESPN's pre/post all star splits)

1st half stats: 3.62 ERA (5.33 FIP - good warning sign), 7.4 Hits/9, 1.6 HR/9, 3.1 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.16 WHIP, 2.4 K/BB, 78% LOB rate, .242 BABIP

the warning signs were there. High HR rate, but a mid 3 ERA and a low WHIP thanks to a suppressed BABIP. When you see that in the future, sell Mortimer, sellllll.

2nd half stats: 4.68 ERA (4.55 FIP), 9.6 H/9, 1.4 HR/9, 2.5 BB/9, 6.3 K/9, 1.34 WHIP, 2.6 K/BB, 69% LOB rate, .300 BABIP

the supporting stats from the 2nd half show what kind of pitcher he really is if he doesn't get help.

 

[Knightro]

-gavin floyd-3.13, 6.58. i don't know much about him, but those are strong peripherals.

I remember Floyd used to be a fairly highly touted prospect with the Phillies. One peripheral you're missing is HR/9. The guy gave up 17 HRs in 70 innings. That's terrible.

that's what US Cellular Field can do to a flyball pitcher

 

[MAC_32]

I don't understand why so many make a big deal out of pitching in AL East, the AL Central is just as brutal for a pitcher.

 

[Wrigley]

-d.mcgowan-2.64, 7.99. everyone's on to him, but likely with good reason.

I'm so high on this guy, I may keep him over the much more hyped P Hughes.

 

[Eephus]

I don't understand why so many make a big deal out of pitching in AL East, the AL Central is just as brutal for a pitcher.

I think the divisional factor is overrated when ranking SPs. If you feel that strongly about it, it's easy to bench a SP when they have a bad matchup.

 

[pantagrapher]

Marcum is iffy because he was pounded in the 2nd half of the season last year (using ESPN's pre/post all star splits)1st half stats: 3.62 ERA (5.33 FIP - good warning sign), 7.4 Hits/9, 1.6 HR/9, 3.1 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.16 WHIP, 2.4 K/BB, 78% LOB rate, .242 BABIPthe warning signs were there. High HR rate, but a mid 3 ERA and a low WHIP thanks to a suppressed BABIP. When you see that in the future, sell Mortimer, sellllll.2nd half stats: 4.68 ERA (4.55 FIP), 9.6 H/9, 1.4 HR/9, 2.5 BB/9, 6.3 K/9, 1.34 WHIP, 2.6 K/BB, 69% LOB rate, .300 BABIPthe supporting stats from the 2nd half show what kind of pitcher he really is if he doesn't get help.

Wow. I knew he stumbled a bit, but I hadn't realized there was such a discrepancy. I figured maybe he faded since he started the season in the pen, but the BABIP never lies ... unless your name is Chris Young.Thanks for the breakdown.

 

[Bobcat10]

 

[Statorama]

 

[Pnishthm]

Marcum is iffy because he was pounded in the 2nd half of the season last year (using ESPN's pre/post all star splits)1st half stats: 3.62 ERA (5.33 FIP - good warning sign), 7.4 Hits/9, 1.6 HR/9, 3.1 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.16 WHIP, 2.4 K/BB, 78% LOB rate, .242 BABIPthe warning signs were there. High HR rate, but a mid 3 ERA and a low WHIP thanks to a suppressed BABIP. When you see that in the future, sell Mortimer, sellllll.2nd half stats: 4.68 ERA (4.55 FIP), 9.6 H/9, 1.4 HR/9, 2.5 BB/9, 6.3 K/9, 1.34 WHIP, 2.6 K/BB, 69% LOB rate, .300 BABIPthe supporting stats from the 2nd half show what kind of pitcher he really is if he doesn't get help.

Wow. I knew he stumbled a bit, but I hadn't realized there was such a discrepancy. I figured maybe he faded since he started the season in the pen, but the BABIP never lies ... unless your name is Chris Young.Thanks for the breakdown.

Could the reason for his 2nd half fade be due to the fact that he went from throwing 8 innings in 2005 to 78 innings in 2006 to 159 innings in 2007?

 

[Eephus]

Marcum is iffy because he was pounded in the 2nd half of the season last year (using ESPN's pre/post all star splits)1st half stats: 3.62 ERA (5.33 FIP - good warning sign), 7.4 Hits/9, 1.6 HR/9, 3.1 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.16 WHIP, 2.4 K/BB, 78% LOB rate, .242 BABIPthe warning signs were there. High HR rate, but a mid 3 ERA and a low WHIP thanks to a suppressed BABIP. When you see that in the future, sell Mortimer, sellllll.2nd half stats: 4.68 ERA (4.55 FIP), 9.6 H/9, 1.4 HR/9, 2.5 BB/9, 6.3 K/9, 1.34 WHIP, 2.6 K/BB, 69% LOB rate, .300 BABIPthe supporting stats from the 2nd half show what kind of pitcher he really is if he doesn't get help.

Wow. I knew he stumbled a bit, but I hadn't realized there was such a discrepancy. I figured maybe he faded since he started the season in the pen, but the BABIP never lies ... unless your name is Chris Young.Thanks for the breakdown.

Could the reason for his 2nd half fade be due to the fact that he went from throwing 8 innings in 2005 to 78 innings in 2006 to 159 innings in 2007?

Counting Marcum's minor league stints:2007: 159 IP2006: 131 IP2005: 165 IPThat's not a bad workload for a young arm. If you like Marcum, he's probably worth 1 or 2 bucks (or a late round flyer).

 

[DaddyFatSacks]

 

[Knightro]

Could the reason for his 2nd half fade be due to the fact that he went from throwing 8 innings in 2005 to 78 innings in 2006 to 159 innings in 2007?

could be the pitches thrown2547 pitches thrown last year in 159 innings = 16 pitches per inningBrandon Webb and CC Sabathia = 14 pitches per inning. Marcum can't go as deep into games as other more established pitchers so his 159 innings are a little heavier.

 

[Scrap Iron]

 

[MAC_32]

SPs I believe are at least one round under-valued:

Tim Lincecum

Francisco Liriano

Pedro Martinez

Dustin McGowan

Jeremy Bonderman

Jered Weaver

Later round fliers in which the risk is worth the reward:

Rich Harden

Randy Johnson

Clay Buchholz (why is his ADP so much lower than Joba?)

Kevin Slowey

Ryan Dempster

Mark Prior

Mike Hampton

Scott Olsen

Players to look to add, May-ish:

Gio Gonzalez

Chris Carpenter

Adam Miller

David Price

 

[ShaqAttaq]

 

[Knightro]

SPs I believe are at least one round under-valued:Tim LincecumFrancisco LirianoPedro MartinezDustin McGowanJeremy BondermanJered WeaverLater round fliers in which the risk is worth the reward:Rich HardenRandy JohnsonClay Buchholz (why is his ADP so much lower than Joba?)Kevin SloweyRyan DempsterMark PriorMike HamptonScott OlsenPlayers to look to add, May-ish:Gio GonzalezChris CarpenterAdam MillerDavid Price

Carpenter won't be back until at least July according to his own statements. I do not expect to see Price until then as well.Buchholz's ADP lower.....I can't figure that out either. Yankee hype?Might I add Zach Greinke, Kevin Correia, Adam Loewen, and Micah Owings to this list.

 

[pollardsvision]

SPs I believe are at least one round under-valued:

Tim Lincecum

Francisco Liriano

Pedro Martinez

Dustin McGowan

Jeremy Bonderman

Jered Weaver

Later round fliers in which the risk is worth the reward:

Rich Harden

Randy Johnson

Clay Buchholz (why is his ADP so much lower than Joba?)

Kevin Slowey

Ryan Dempster

Mark Prior

Mike Hampton

Scott Olsen

Players to look to add, May-ish:

Gio Gonzalez

Chris Carpenter

Adam Miller

David Price

Carpenter won't be back until at least July according to his own statements. I do not expect to see Price until then as well.Buchholz's ADP lower.....I can't figure that out either. Yankee hype?

Might I add Zach Greinke, Kevin Correia, Adam Loewen, and Micah Owings to this list.

correia did post solid K/BB (2) and K/9 (7 plus) rates last year. is he going to have a rotation spot this year?

 

[Knightro]

correia did post solid K/BB (2) and K/9 (7 plus) rates last year. is he going to have a rotation spot this year?

I think he grabs the 5th spot in the rotation behind Zito, Cain, Lincecum, and Lowry. I think the spot is up between Correia and Sanchez but Sanchez's handedness may keep him in the pen.

 

[Regular Crust Pizza]

correia did post solid K/BB (2) and K/9 (7 plus) rates last year. is he going to have a rotation spot this year?

I think he grabs the 5th spot in the rotation behind Zito, Cain, Lincecum, and Lowry. I think the spot is up between Correia and Sanchez but Sanchez's handedness may keep him in the pen.

I'd be surprised if he didn't get the fifth spot, and then if he kept it all year long, unless injuries strike. He's just not that good, there are other people mentioned in this thread I'd rather have for $1.

 

[Knightro]

Check out Correia's splits as a reliever and then a starter. Big difference in his performance.

 

[Mr. Know-It-All]

I would avoid Chuck James - I like him as a SP, but something is not right with him and I wouldn't waste a draft pick on him only to find out it is something serious.

 

[RenegadeGM]

I would avoid Chuck James - I like him as a SP, but something is not right with him and I wouldn't waste a draft pick on him only to find out it is something serious.

He has a partially torn rotator cuff I believe and has elected NOT to have surgery. He's hoping the rest during the offseason will take care of it... and we all know how "rest and rehab" over surgery tends to work out.I actively looked to trade him i the one league I had him in and did so this afternoon. He may end up OK, but I'd rather someone else take that risk.

 

[Cowbell Fever]

Keeping Greinke at $6 - hoping this is the year.

Think I'll spend money on Sabathia and then focus on some cheaper targets:

Jeremy Guthrie - BAL

John Danks - CHW

Boof Bonser - MIN

Marcum - TOR

Ervin Santana LAA (worth a gamble if he comes cheap)

Jon Garland LAA

 

[Balco]

Shields is going to be $$$$ this year. He played in front of an atrocious D last year and still put up great stats. The Rays D is much improved, and there offense should be solid. I am definitely targeting him in all leagues.

 

[Pnishthm]

SPs I believe are at least one round under-valued:Tim LincecumFrancisco LirianoPedro MartinezDustin McGowanJeremy BondermanJered WeaverLater round fliers in which the risk is worth the reward:Rich HardenRandy JohnsonClay Buchholz (why is his ADP so much lower than Joba?)Kevin SloweyRyan DempsterMark PriorMike HamptonScott OlsenPlayers to look to add, May-ish:Gio GonzalezChris CarpenterAdam MillerDavid Price

Carpenter won't be back until at least July according to his own statements. I do not expect to see Price until then as well.Buchholz's ADP lower.....I can't figure that out either. Yankee hype?Might I add Zach Greinke, Kevin Correia, Adam Loewen, and Micah Owings to this list.

I wonder if the reason for Buchholtz's ADP is lower because when the mocks got started we weren't sure if he was going to get a rotation spot? Is he still being drafted that much later than Jaba?

 

[pillowpants]

SPs I believe are at least one round under-valued:Tim LincecumFrancisco LirianoPedro MartinezDustin McGowanJeremy BondermanJered WeaverLater round fliers in which the risk is worth the reward:Rich HardenRandy JohnsonClay Buchholz (why is his ADP so much lower than Joba?)Kevin SloweyRyan DempsterMark PriorMike HamptonScott OlsenPlayers to look to add, May-ish:Gio GonzalezChris CarpenterAdam MillerDavid Price

Carpenter won't be back until at least July according to his own statements. I do not expect to see Price until then as well.Buchholz's ADP lower.....I can't figure that out either. Yankee hype?Might I add Zach Greinke, Kevin Correia, Adam Loewen, and Micah Owings to this list.

I wonder if the reason for Buchholtz's ADP is lower because when the mocks got started we weren't sure if he was going to get a rotation spot? Is he still being drafted that much later than Jaba?

I thought of this as well. Joba has a role with the big club, even though it isn't really defined. Bucholtz isn't a lock to start the season with the big club.2 guys I've been getting real late in drafts are Jon Lester and Phil Hughes. I'm talking rounds 20-25.

 

[Tiger Fan]

tfblackdot

 

[MAC_32]

SPs I believe are at least one round under-valued:Tim LincecumFrancisco LirianoPedro MartinezDustin McGowanJeremy BondermanJered WeaverLater round fliers in which the risk is worth the reward:Rich HardenRandy JohnsonClay Buchholz (why is his ADP so much lower than Joba?)Kevin SloweyRyan DempsterMark PriorMike HamptonScott OlsenPlayers to look to add, May-ish:Gio GonzalezChris CarpenterAdam MillerDavid Price

Carpenter won't be back until at least July according to his own statements. I do not expect to see Price until then as well.Buchholz's ADP lower.....I can't figure that out either. Yankee hype?Might I add Zach Greinke, Kevin Correia, Adam Loewen, and Micah Owings to this list.

I wonder if the reason for Buchholtz's ADP is lower because when the mocks got started we weren't sure if he was going to get a rotation spot? Is he still being drafted that much later than Jaba?

I figured this was the case as well, but in both of my drafts Buccholz didn't go until pick 185 and 190 (I got him 185th, was waiting at the elbow with picks 192 and 193 to snag him again if he fell). Joba went at pick 149 and 157 in those same two drafts.

 

[DawnBTVS]

Some guys I like...

Randy Wolf

102.2 IP with an 8.28 K/9 and 3.43 BB/9. Will be pitching in Petco which should help his ERA.

Buddy Carlyle

107 IP with a 6.22 K/9 and 2.69 BB/9. This after putting up a 2.59 ERA in 9 starts at AAA with a 10.46 K/9 and 1.68 BB/9.

 

[ScottNorwood]

Duchscherer could be a good one if he's healthy.

 

[MAC_32]

Duchscherer could be a good one if he's healthy.

...and can handle the IP increase. I'm targetting him in the coming rounds in my 16 teamer.

 

[Mystery Achiever]

i like pedro in a contract year in the shadow of santana.