Concept Coop
Footballguy
The rankings are in vacuum and reflect my projection of VBD from today until the end of the player's career. In other words 100 VBD points in one season would be equal to 20 points over the span of 5 years. Risk is also taken into account;
50 points is equal to a 50% chance at 100 points. While the VORP/VBD is taken into account for every ranking, it is not calculated or projected as an exact number. The variables are too quick to change.
Tier 1
1. LeSean McCoy:
He is an elite talent, on his way to his 2nd top 5 finish, and he is 23 years old. That combination of youth, production, talent, and track record set McCoy at the top of the rankings. Top 5 RB seasons are the best indicator of fantasy success – McCoy projects an additional season, if not more, than the other backs in the top 5.
2. Arian Foster:
Foster currently offers the most potential for points on a per game basis. He is a threat on all 3 downs, at the goal line, and out of the backfield. I believe his talent transfers to any system, while he no doubt benefits from his current situation.
Tier 2
3. Ray Rice:
He offers a sense of consistency that even some ahead of him do not. His balance, vision and lower-body strength make me feel comfortable projecting 3-4 more seasons of success. His reception totals, as an elite receiving threat, should keep him in tier 2, even if those around him offer more big play ability on the ground.
4. Adrian Peterson:
The most talented RB in the NFL and the only threat his team has to move the football. He is the definition of a workhorse RB, much in the mold of past greats. He is consistent, productive, and has long been the biggest asset in fantasy football. However, those days have come and gone, much like his early 20s. He simply can’t offer the value over replacement in 2-3 years that others, like McCoy, can in 3-5.
5. Darren McFadden:
If not for Adrian Peterson, I would feel comfortable calling McFadden the most talented RB in the NFL. Very few NFL teams rely on one player, outside of the QB position, as much as the Raiders do McFadden. The offense has been altered to fit his talents, and the Raiders will continue to build around him. Injury concerns keep McFadden out of the first tier, where 24 year olds as talented as McFadden usually belong. Update: McFadden is a risky own. He has been injured every season of his young career.
6. Matt Forte:
It is funny how much more talented a player can look when they have room to operate. He is one of the best and most important offensive players in the NFL. He looks great, which is important for a guy that seemed to lack elite burst. He is well rounded and offers a unique skill set, making him a workhorse back, that is also the biggest receiving threat on his team.
Tier 3
7. Chris Johnson:
Like most, I expect Johnson to bounce back. That might require personnel changes by the Titans and perhaps a year’s wait. At 26 years old, the value that Johnson surrenders over that period is big, and places him at the end of tier 3. Odd for a player who ran for 2,000 yards, just two years ago. Update: Looking better. His recent production doesn't warrant this ranking. But he was the most productive RB in recent memory, only 2 years ago. I like his chances to reach top 5 numbers over the next 2 seasons.
8. Demarco Murray:
The answer to the big question: Yes. He's legit. He is one of the best RBs in the NFL and I feel comfortable saying that 4 games (starting) into his career. He is a complete back and his homerun speed could make him elite. His vision and lateral movement have been a very pleasant surprise and he hasn't shown any weaknesses, running behind a line that doesn't hide them. He is the biggest reason the Cowboys are turning their season around. The one game he was removed from the equation (behind big, early) the Cowboys couldn't score.
9. Ryan Matthews:
I am not sold yet, at least when it comes to Matthews’ talent being that of a top 10 RB. That said, the starting RB spot in San Diego is a golden opportunity. Matthews is well rounded, has burst, and shows patience and vision. There are enough points to go around in the Charger backfield to prevent Tolbert from threatening Matthews’ value. Situation and youth go a long way, as Ryan’s ranking shows.
10. Maurice Jones-Drew:
There are so many great things to say about MJD as a player. The consistency he has displayed in such a horrible situation is really impressive. MJD, like Peterson, reminds me former greats. He takes contact and finishes runs as well as anyone. Much like Rice, I feel comfortable holding onto MJD, as his vision, balance, instincts, and lower-body strength should keep him relevant towards the end of his prime. But, the hits are adding up and the organization has decided that running MJD into the ground is not a major concern.
Tier 4
11. Jamaal Charles:
Charles was one of the most talented players at his position before the injury. One missed year is significant, even at 24 years old, for the RB position. That year allows less talented and less productive players to provide value, while Charles is on the shelf. Charles’ production will need to make up for that over the span of his career, to justify this ranking. There is significant risk and lost value when investing in Charles. But there is potential for great reward, should Jamaal be able to reach 100% for even 2 seasons. Edit: Every game that passes, Charles' value grows. If a startup were held today, he would likely miss 2 regular season fantasy games (most formats).
12. Beanie Wells:
Wells is a talented brute who is built to look the part. He is big, strong, fast, and runs mean. At 23 years old, Wells offers potential that many ranked in this range can’t. That said, his injury history raises major red flags. Wells is a very big boom or bust fantasy asset – one of the biggest to this point.
13. Jonathan Stewart:
Stewart is a very talented player who finds himself this far down the rankings due to situation and injury concern. Stewart owners have surrendered a lot of value waiting for Stewart to get a lead role. The bad news is that value will continue to be lost, until or unless Stewart becomes a lead RB for the Panthers. Cam Newton is a major concern for Stewart as well. The ability to play 11 on 11 at the goal line is a luxury that the young, LB-sized QB offers. Panther RB goal line opportunities will be cut in half, at least.
14. Rashard Mendenhall:
Mendenhall was thought to be in a great position, until his offensive line stopped creating holes. You have to assume an organization like the Steelers will fix this problem relatively quickly. There is risk, however, that the Steelers find a talented back mate for Mendenhall, as even Isaac Redman was able to match or best Rashard, per carry. The fact that Mendenhall is not used as a weapon out of the backfield is a major concern. There are also very real questions about Mendenhall’s overall talent level. Still, at just 24 years old, Mendenhall ‘s track record suggests he should have good value down the road.
15. Mark Ingram:
Ingram has been a disappointment. He was not handed a lead role and has been used as a specialist, as opposed to an every down back. The Saints have no reason to change this, from a football perspective. Ingram owners might find themselves in the boat that Stewart owners have inhabited for years: waiting… Ingram’s talent figured to translate to the NFL with little risk or delay. That also, has not been the case. Ingram is a strong, balanced, quick runner who should find his way in the NFL. However, there are question marks: How long will his owners have to wait, and will he be worth it? Both are valid questions.
Tier 5
16. Ahmad Bradshaw:
Bradshaw is an underrated talent who plays with heart. He is dangerous all over the field and displays soft hands. The Giants running game is underrated and the starting role would be much more valuable should Jacobs move on. Bradshaw has injury concerns, which is odd for a guy who doesn’t miss time due to injury. His leg structure is reason for concern, but I won’t go overboard until it actually starts to hinder Ahmad on game day. Edit: It's happening.
17. Frank Gore :
Gore is having a very productive season, and if he can last until 30, this ranking could be low. The concerns are well documented and justified, in my opinion. He is still one of the very best and one of my favorites to watch.
18. Steven Jackson:
See Frank Gore.
19. Darren Sproles:
The NO backfield is a mess, but Sproles has been by far the most productive and most consistent producer. There are concerns that the emergence of Mark Ingram could move Sproles into a lesser role. But, as long as Sean Peyton is there, I like Sproles' chances to keep producing.
20. Michael Turner:
See Frank Gore. Less injury prone, less tread, but older and fewer receptions.
21. Fred Jackson:
I think Fred is a bit overrated, as far as his dynasty value goes. For one, he is playing on borrowed time. Another red flag being that this season has been an anomaly. There is razor thin margin for error with Fred - one moderate injury early next season could completely derail his value. He will provide 16-24 VBD over the remainder of the regular season, and potentially double that, should he help your team in the playoffs. Every game that passes lowers Fred's value. Fred is the Reggie Wayne of RBs - we saw what one setback did to Wayne's value. It could do even more to Fred's.
Tier 6
22. Ben Tate:
Tate's value is unique. He is the most important handcuff in the hobby, he is producing as a RB2 as a backup, and there is a small chance that he ends up as a the main back in Houston 1.5 years from now. I am not a believer in Tate's talent warranting this ranking. But his production and potential do.
23. Felix Jones:
Felix has been a disappointment since being drafted. Worse, he hasn't shown the electric play-making ability he did as a rookie. I still believe the talent we all saw is real, however. There is a role for Felix on an explosive offense and he is young enough to find it. His conditioning, injury concerns, and laziness could prevent him from ever being more than he is today. But potential has value; Felix offers that.
24. Peyton Hillis:
Hillis has a set of skills that any NFL team would be lucky to have. His hands and pass protection are some of the best at the position. Last season, he was the best offensive weapon on an NFL team - that means something. I am no longer convinced Hillis doesn't belong in a RBBC, however. His value is a question mark outside of Cleveland, and he will likely be leaving.
25. Jahvid Best:
If his health wasn't the question mark that it is, Best would be in tier 4. It is clear that the Lions can't use Best as an every down back and his role will be reduced. In PPR formats, he should keep value as he is electric and will provide big plays and plenty of receptions. My ranking is indicative of my comfort concerning his health: I am very worried about his future in the NFL.
50 points is equal to a 50% chance at 100 points. While the VORP/VBD is taken into account for every ranking, it is not calculated or projected as an exact number. The variables are too quick to change.
Tier 1
1. LeSean McCoy:
He is an elite talent, on his way to his 2nd top 5 finish, and he is 23 years old. That combination of youth, production, talent, and track record set McCoy at the top of the rankings. Top 5 RB seasons are the best indicator of fantasy success – McCoy projects an additional season, if not more, than the other backs in the top 5.
2. Arian Foster:
Foster currently offers the most potential for points on a per game basis. He is a threat on all 3 downs, at the goal line, and out of the backfield. I believe his talent transfers to any system, while he no doubt benefits from his current situation.
Tier 2
3. Ray Rice:
He offers a sense of consistency that even some ahead of him do not. His balance, vision and lower-body strength make me feel comfortable projecting 3-4 more seasons of success. His reception totals, as an elite receiving threat, should keep him in tier 2, even if those around him offer more big play ability on the ground.
4. Adrian Peterson:
The most talented RB in the NFL and the only threat his team has to move the football. He is the definition of a workhorse RB, much in the mold of past greats. He is consistent, productive, and has long been the biggest asset in fantasy football. However, those days have come and gone, much like his early 20s. He simply can’t offer the value over replacement in 2-3 years that others, like McCoy, can in 3-5.
5. Darren McFadden:
If not for Adrian Peterson, I would feel comfortable calling McFadden the most talented RB in the NFL. Very few NFL teams rely on one player, outside of the QB position, as much as the Raiders do McFadden. The offense has been altered to fit his talents, and the Raiders will continue to build around him. Injury concerns keep McFadden out of the first tier, where 24 year olds as talented as McFadden usually belong. Update: McFadden is a risky own. He has been injured every season of his young career.
6. Matt Forte:
It is funny how much more talented a player can look when they have room to operate. He is one of the best and most important offensive players in the NFL. He looks great, which is important for a guy that seemed to lack elite burst. He is well rounded and offers a unique skill set, making him a workhorse back, that is also the biggest receiving threat on his team.
Tier 3
7. Chris Johnson:
Like most, I expect Johnson to bounce back. That might require personnel changes by the Titans and perhaps a year’s wait. At 26 years old, the value that Johnson surrenders over that period is big, and places him at the end of tier 3. Odd for a player who ran for 2,000 yards, just two years ago. Update: Looking better. His recent production doesn't warrant this ranking. But he was the most productive RB in recent memory, only 2 years ago. I like his chances to reach top 5 numbers over the next 2 seasons.
8. Demarco Murray:
The answer to the big question: Yes. He's legit. He is one of the best RBs in the NFL and I feel comfortable saying that 4 games (starting) into his career. He is a complete back and his homerun speed could make him elite. His vision and lateral movement have been a very pleasant surprise and he hasn't shown any weaknesses, running behind a line that doesn't hide them. He is the biggest reason the Cowboys are turning their season around. The one game he was removed from the equation (behind big, early) the Cowboys couldn't score.
9. Ryan Matthews:
I am not sold yet, at least when it comes to Matthews’ talent being that of a top 10 RB. That said, the starting RB spot in San Diego is a golden opportunity. Matthews is well rounded, has burst, and shows patience and vision. There are enough points to go around in the Charger backfield to prevent Tolbert from threatening Matthews’ value. Situation and youth go a long way, as Ryan’s ranking shows.
10. Maurice Jones-Drew:
There are so many great things to say about MJD as a player. The consistency he has displayed in such a horrible situation is really impressive. MJD, like Peterson, reminds me former greats. He takes contact and finishes runs as well as anyone. Much like Rice, I feel comfortable holding onto MJD, as his vision, balance, instincts, and lower-body strength should keep him relevant towards the end of his prime. But, the hits are adding up and the organization has decided that running MJD into the ground is not a major concern.
Tier 4
11. Jamaal Charles:
Charles was one of the most talented players at his position before the injury. One missed year is significant, even at 24 years old, for the RB position. That year allows less talented and less productive players to provide value, while Charles is on the shelf. Charles’ production will need to make up for that over the span of his career, to justify this ranking. There is significant risk and lost value when investing in Charles. But there is potential for great reward, should Jamaal be able to reach 100% for even 2 seasons. Edit: Every game that passes, Charles' value grows. If a startup were held today, he would likely miss 2 regular season fantasy games (most formats).
12. Beanie Wells:
Wells is a talented brute who is built to look the part. He is big, strong, fast, and runs mean. At 23 years old, Wells offers potential that many ranked in this range can’t. That said, his injury history raises major red flags. Wells is a very big boom or bust fantasy asset – one of the biggest to this point.
13. Jonathan Stewart:
Stewart is a very talented player who finds himself this far down the rankings due to situation and injury concern. Stewart owners have surrendered a lot of value waiting for Stewart to get a lead role. The bad news is that value will continue to be lost, until or unless Stewart becomes a lead RB for the Panthers. Cam Newton is a major concern for Stewart as well. The ability to play 11 on 11 at the goal line is a luxury that the young, LB-sized QB offers. Panther RB goal line opportunities will be cut in half, at least.
14. Rashard Mendenhall:
Mendenhall was thought to be in a great position, until his offensive line stopped creating holes. You have to assume an organization like the Steelers will fix this problem relatively quickly. There is risk, however, that the Steelers find a talented back mate for Mendenhall, as even Isaac Redman was able to match or best Rashard, per carry. The fact that Mendenhall is not used as a weapon out of the backfield is a major concern. There are also very real questions about Mendenhall’s overall talent level. Still, at just 24 years old, Mendenhall ‘s track record suggests he should have good value down the road.
15. Mark Ingram:
Ingram has been a disappointment. He was not handed a lead role and has been used as a specialist, as opposed to an every down back. The Saints have no reason to change this, from a football perspective. Ingram owners might find themselves in the boat that Stewart owners have inhabited for years: waiting… Ingram’s talent figured to translate to the NFL with little risk or delay. That also, has not been the case. Ingram is a strong, balanced, quick runner who should find his way in the NFL. However, there are question marks: How long will his owners have to wait, and will he be worth it? Both are valid questions.
Tier 5
16. Ahmad Bradshaw:
Bradshaw is an underrated talent who plays with heart. He is dangerous all over the field and displays soft hands. The Giants running game is underrated and the starting role would be much more valuable should Jacobs move on. Bradshaw has injury concerns, which is odd for a guy who doesn’t miss time due to injury. His leg structure is reason for concern, but I won’t go overboard until it actually starts to hinder Ahmad on game day. Edit: It's happening.
17. Frank Gore :
Gore is having a very productive season, and if he can last until 30, this ranking could be low. The concerns are well documented and justified, in my opinion. He is still one of the very best and one of my favorites to watch.
18. Steven Jackson:
See Frank Gore.
19. Darren Sproles:
The NO backfield is a mess, but Sproles has been by far the most productive and most consistent producer. There are concerns that the emergence of Mark Ingram could move Sproles into a lesser role. But, as long as Sean Peyton is there, I like Sproles' chances to keep producing.
20. Michael Turner:
See Frank Gore. Less injury prone, less tread, but older and fewer receptions.
21. Fred Jackson:
I think Fred is a bit overrated, as far as his dynasty value goes. For one, he is playing on borrowed time. Another red flag being that this season has been an anomaly. There is razor thin margin for error with Fred - one moderate injury early next season could completely derail his value. He will provide 16-24 VBD over the remainder of the regular season, and potentially double that, should he help your team in the playoffs. Every game that passes lowers Fred's value. Fred is the Reggie Wayne of RBs - we saw what one setback did to Wayne's value. It could do even more to Fred's.
Tier 6
22. Ben Tate:
Tate's value is unique. He is the most important handcuff in the hobby, he is producing as a RB2 as a backup, and there is a small chance that he ends up as a the main back in Houston 1.5 years from now. I am not a believer in Tate's talent warranting this ranking. But his production and potential do.
23. Felix Jones:
Felix has been a disappointment since being drafted. Worse, he hasn't shown the electric play-making ability he did as a rookie. I still believe the talent we all saw is real, however. There is a role for Felix on an explosive offense and he is young enough to find it. His conditioning, injury concerns, and laziness could prevent him from ever being more than he is today. But potential has value; Felix offers that.
24. Peyton Hillis:
Hillis has a set of skills that any NFL team would be lucky to have. His hands and pass protection are some of the best at the position. Last season, he was the best offensive weapon on an NFL team - that means something. I am no longer convinced Hillis doesn't belong in a RBBC, however. His value is a question mark outside of Cleveland, and he will likely be leaving.
25. Jahvid Best:
If his health wasn't the question mark that it is, Best would be in tier 4. It is clear that the Lions can't use Best as an every down back and his role will be reduced. In PPR formats, he should keep value as he is electric and will provide big plays and plenty of receptions. My ranking is indicative of my comfort concerning his health: I am very worried about his future in the NFL.
I think were on the same page with just about everything. Obviously everyones rankings are going to differ, but I can respect the reasoning behind all of this.
