PPR RB2 Tier : Stacy / Vereen / Spiller / Gerhart / Jennings (1 Viewer)

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Would love to see some discussion around these guys that I can see folks snapping up as RB2s (if went for stud WR/TE/QB early) or strong RB3 for depth. Each come with their own upsides/questions.

Rank em with feedback however brief or in-depth you feel is suitable.

Stacy: Monster once he got the starting job. Will he be challenged by Tre Mason during crucial late season FF games?

Vereen: PPR beast when healthy. Wrist not 100% and injury prone. Crowded backfield w/ unpredictable HC.

Spiller: RB1 Promise doused with a HAS and FJax vulturing touches again. Brown acquisition muddy waters more?

Gerhart: Finally a primary back, but in questionable environment. Can he shine in spotlight? Groin issue lingers.

Jennings: Another "new to spotlight" guy with solid sporadic production in the past. TD vulture + a low mileage 29 years old.

My personal tiers w/ quick notes:

Spiller - FJAX a year older. Year removed from HAS. Offense improving. Brown takes more from FJ than CJ IMO. Can do a LOT with few carries.

--

Stacy - Love him early in the season.. prepare for potential RBBC down stretch... lots of touches to go around

Vereen - More mouths to feed, but BB Loves his gadget backs. decent RB2 w/ RB1 upside if can stay healthy.

--

Jennings - Like the talent... worried about the situation w/ TD vulture already firmly in place. Will offense improve enough?

--

Gerhart - Injured and It's JAX. If MJD got dragged down here, not sure Gerhart can rise above.

 

[Modog814]

Would love to see some discussion around these guys that I can see folks snapping up as RB2s (if went for stud WR/TE/QB early) or strong RB3 for depth. Each come with their own upsides/questions.

Rank em with feedback however brief or in-depth you feel is suitable.

Stacy: Monster once he got the starting job. Will he be challenged by Tre Mason during crucial late season FF games?

Vereen: PPR beast when healthy. Wrist not 100% and injury prone. Crowded backfield w/ unpredictable HC.

Spiller: RB1 Promise doused with a HAS and FJax vulturing touches again. Brown acquisition muddy waters more?

Gerhart: Finally a primary back, but in questionable environment. Can he shine in spotlight? Groin issue lingers.

Jennings: Another "new to spotlight" guy with solid sporadic production in the past. TD vulture + a low mileage 29 years old.

My personal tiers w/ quick notes:

Spiller - FJAX a year older. Year removed from HAS. Offense improving. Brown takes more from FJ than CJ IMO. Can do a LOT with few carries.

--

Stacy - Love him early in the season.. prepare for potential RBBC down stretch... lots of touches to go around

Vereen - More mouths to feed, but BB Loves his gadget backs. decent RB2 w/ RB1 upside if can stay healthy.

--

Jennings - Like the talent... worried about the situation w/ TD vulture already firmly in place. Will offense improve enough?

--

Gerhart - Injured and It's JAX. If MJD got dragged down here, not sure Gerhart can rise above.

My take:

Spiller: Had over 900 yards playing on 1 ankle most of the season. Was constantly in and out of games. Wouldn't be shocked to see him perform as a top 5 or 7 RB this year. Agree that if Brown comes into the equation its at the expense of Jackson not Spiller.

Stacy: Very impressed with him. Isn't going to break many long runs but he makes up with it by constantly getting 3 to 8 yards on most carries. Showed some nice ability to make the first defender miss. His biggest negative is the lack of breakaway speed. I'm not too worried about Mason and don't expect there to be a RBBC. I expect Stacy to become Fisher's new Eddie George.

Gerhart: His biggest issue is situation. He's got the talent, and should get a ton of touches.

Vereen: Another talent that will be hampered by situation. He jumps ahead of Gerhart for me if PPR, but you just never know with Belichek and they have a deep RB group there (Vereen, Ridley, Bolden and good things coming out about White). Injury history is another flag. But he's a guy who I wouldn't be shocked to see at the top of the list as years end or the bottom. Huge risk/reward pick.

Jennings: Just don't see the talent. I looked back at some of his games last year and he doesn't seem to be very creative or have the ability to make anyone miss. He kind of just hits the hole and hits it hard. It already looks like he's going to lose GL carries to Williams. And if Williams can show something in the passing game (both receiving and blocking) I wouldn't be shocked to see this be a full blown RBBC or even Williams completely overtake the lead role.

 

[KellysHeroes]

I'd take Gerhart in a sec over those guys, if Vereen could stay healthy it would be him

 

[MattFancy]

I'd rank them like this:

Spiller - Think he bounces back. Has top 5 talent and still put up decent numbers with the injuries last season. FJax has to be running out of gas at some point and I'm not sold on Bryce Brown yet.

Jennings - Pretty undervalued IMO. Sure Williams could vulture some TDs, but he's their clear 3-down back between the 20s and he'll be involved in the passing game.

Vereen - Would be higher if he could stay healthy and if NE's backfield wasn't such as mess. Will be splitting time with Ridley and White. Plus with Gronk back, he may not see as many dump off passes.

Gerhart - Ultimate wild card of the group. Alot depends on Jacksonville's offense and if they can keep games close.

 

[Greggity]

Would love to see some discussion around these guys that I can see folks snapping up as RB2s (if went for stud WR/TE/QB early) or strong RB3 for depth. Each come with their own upsides/questions.

Rank em with feedback however brief or in-depth you feel is suitable.

Stacy: Monster once he got the starting job. Will he be challenged by Tre Mason during crucial late season FF games?

Vereen: PPR beast when healthy. Wrist not 100% and injury prone. Crowded backfield w/ unpredictable HC.

Spiller: RB1 Promise doused with a HAS and FJax vulturing touches again. Brown acquisition muddy waters more?

Gerhart: Finally a primary back, but in questionable environment. Can he shine in spotlight? Groin issue lingers.

Jennings: Another "new to spotlight" guy with solid sporadic production in the past. TD vulture + a low mileage 29 years old.

My personal tiers w/ quick notes:

Spiller - FJAX a year older. Year removed from HAS. Offense improving. Brown takes more from FJ than CJ IMO. Can do a LOT with few carries.

--

Stacy - Love him early in the season.. prepare for potential RBBC down stretch... lots of touches to go around

Vereen - More mouths to feed, but BB Loves his gadget backs. decent RB2 w/ RB1 upside if can stay healthy.

--

Jennings - Like the talent... worried about the situation w/ TD vulture already firmly in place. Will offense improve enough?

--

Gerhart - Injured and It's JAX. If MJD got dragged down here, not sure Gerhart can rise above.

My take:

Spiller: Had over 900 yards playing on 1 ankle most of the season. Was constantly in and out of games. Wouldn't be shocked to see him perform as a top 5 or 7 RB this year. Agree that if Brown comes into the equation its at the expense of Jackson not Spiller.

Stacy: Very impressed with him. Isn't going to break many long runs but he makes up with it by constantly getting 3 to 8 yards on most carries. Showed some nice ability to make the first defender miss. His biggest negative is the lack of breakaway speed. I'm not too worried about Mason and don't expect there to be a RBBC. I expect Stacy to become Fisher's new Eddie George.

Gerhart: His biggest issue is situation. He's got the talent, and should get a ton of touches.

Vereen: Another talent that will be hampered by situation. He jumps ahead of Gerhart for me if PPR, but you just never know with Belichek and they have a deep RB group there (Vereen, Ridley, Bolden and good things coming out about White). Injury history is another flag. But he's a guy who I wouldn't be shocked to see at the top of the list as years end or the bottom. Huge risk/reward pick.

Jennings: Just don't see the talent. I looked back at some of his games last year and he doesn't seem to be very creative or have the ability to make anyone miss. He kind of just hits the hole and hits it hard. It already looks like he's going to lose GL carries to Williams. And if Williams can show something in the passing game (both receiving and blocking) I wouldn't be shocked to see this be a full blown RBBC or even Williams completely overtake the lead role.

How embarrassing for a 230 lb back to get pulled at the goal line for a rookie that i think is smaller then him?

 

[PhantomJB]

This is the essence of tier-based drafting. There is no compelling reason any one should be ranked higher than another unless something changes during preseason.

In fact, based on projections (0.5 PPR) it is easy to throw R. Mathews / A. Morris / C. Johnson and maybe even R. Bush / D. Martin / T. Rich into this tier.

Just monitor in the draft when the run on these guys begins and take the last one available.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Spiller

Stacy

-------------

Gerhardt

Jennings

-------------

Vereen - too small of the RBBC pie for me. will be far to inconsistent

 

[Greggity]

Shouldnt Trent Richardson and CJ be in this discussion as well?

Obviously i like gerhart Icon.....

 

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Shouldnt Trent Richardson and CJ be in this discussion as well?

Obviously i like gerhart Icon.....

Yep. Could easy to grow this into a group of 10 or 15 backs...

I just wanted to target those with the most interesting changes in situation to me at the time of the creation of the thread. I see nothing wrong with introducing CJ0k or TRich into the discussion folks want to... it's the community's thread

 

[Borden]

I would like to see the rest of your RB rankings/tiers too. Not being condescending.

My rankings of this tier:

1) Stacy: He is a volume back and when ST.L looked good last year it was when they decided to be a run first Jeff Fisher team. I liked Tre Mason going into the draft and still do but I believe they drafted him because they saw value where he fell too and because they needed a viable back up. If Mason gets into games it will be because Stacy needs a break, not because Mason is such a dynamic back that he needs to be on the field. Stacy at his draft position is like a dirty old five dollar bill crumpled up on the ground that nobody wants because it isn't shiny and new.

2) Spiller: His injuries and under production put him below Stacy but his ability to win your team a fantasy week keep him from going any lower. Going into a contract year usually good for most players. Fred Jackson will get touches because he is a much better grinding back that gets 4-6 yards when the line gives him 3 but if Spiller is tearing it up Jackson will only see the field if Spiller needs a quick breather. That said, if Spiller isn't tearing up a team right away Steady Freddy will be used to grind out first downs and wins

3) Gerhart: Bad team, high volume. He's not a superstar but he isn't bad either. I would keep Jordan Todman on speed dial incase of injury too. Their passing game is weak so I don't see how he doesn't get a massive amount of carries. Really, it's a pretty good price for a rare workhorse back.

***These last two belong in a lower tier IMO***

4) Jennings: He was brought in because they Giants didn't have a lot of options. I don't think the Giants have any loyalty towards him and will give Williams an increased role if he does well or Jennings struggles. Jennings is a good enough at everything back and such see most of the action early just because I assume he is better at pass protection. I do think the Giants will run more this year and even if this turns into a tandem Jennings will have enough touches to be a flex.

5) Vereen: I don't trust the Hoodie and think Ridley is a better runner. I view Vereen as a Sporles and Woodhead type. He might be a better runner than I give him credit for but I think the risk is too high. Vereen isn't essentially off my draft board.

 

[mbuehner]

Spiller is always 1 season away from being a stud, and always will be.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Spiller is always 1 season away from being a stud, and always will be.

Untrue his 2012 was studly

 

[need2know]

Where does ellington and martin fit in with these rankings?

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Reggie Bush

 

[steveski]

Where does ellington and martin fit in with these rankings?

To me they fit into the tier above the guys that I like to call the "Grab a Stud WR instead of these guys" tier.

 

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Where does ellington and martin fit in with these rankings?

To me they fit into the tier above the guys that I like to call the "Grab a Stud WR instead of these guys" tier.

Yeah.

This year there seems to be a straight up GLUT of very good backs in the 3rd-6th rounds.

This could be a great year (especially in PPR) to grab Stud WR/ Stud TE / Very Good WR / then 3 of these backs...

 

[Banger]

Where does ellington and martin fit in with these rankings?

To me they fit into the tier above the guys that I like to call the "Grab a Stud WR instead of these guys" tier.

Yeah.

This year there seems to be a straight up GLUT of very good backs in the 3rd-6th rounds.

This could be a great year (especially in PPR) to grab Stud WR/ Stud TE / Very Good WR / then 3 of these backs...

ya, I'm in a keeper league and I've essentially shaped my team in the same mold...my final 5 keepers will be AJ Green, Cobb, Gordon, Gronk and Ellington. I'm counting on these type of RB's...Chris Johnson, Joique Bell, Gore, etc....

 

[Modog814]

This is the essence of tier-based drafting. There is no compelling reason any one should be ranked higher than another unless something changes during preseason.

In fact, based on projections (0.5 PPR) it is easy to throw R. Mathews / A. Morris / C. Johnson and maybe even R. Bush / D. Martin / T. Rich into this tier.

Just monitor in the draft when the run on these guys begins and take the last one available.

In general I agree. But for some, one of these back may not really belong in the tier (either higher or lower). For me, Vereen and Jennings are not in the same tier as Stacy, Gerhart and Spiller.

 

[PhantomJB]

This is the essence of tier-based drafting. There is no compelling reason any one should be ranked higher than another unless something changes during preseason.

In fact, based on projections (0.5 PPR) it is easy to throw R. Mathews / A. Morris / C. Johnson and maybe even R. Bush / D. Martin / T. Rich into this tier.

Just monitor in the draft when the run on these guys begins and take the last one available.

In general I agree. But for some, one of these back may not really belong in the tier (either higher or lower). For me, Vereen and Jennings are not in the same tier as Stacy, Gerhart and Spiller.

Could you help me understand your thinking? These are my projections in 0.5 PPR that form the basis of my rankings.

13. S. Vereen 450/3 - 70/650/5 = 193 pts

14. T. Gerhart 1,000/7 - 35/2751 = 193 pts

15. R. Bush 800/5 - 50/450/2 = 192

16. Z. Stacy 1,050/8 - 30/180/1 = 192

17. CJ Spiller 1,000/5 - 40/300/2 = 192

18. R. Mathews 1,050/7 - 30/225/1 = 191

19. T. Rich 1,000/6 - 30/275/2 = 191

20. R. Jennings 700/7 - 55/450/1 = 191

21. D. Martin 900/6 - 45/350/1 = 190

22. A. Morris 1,150/10 - 10/75/0 = 188

23. C. Johnson 1,000/7 - 31/225/1 = 186

I can see some guys with higher upside (Spiller/Gerhart) and some with higher floors (Bush/Morris) but don't really see how anyone of this group has a certain enough of a role with proven historical production to project into a totally different tier. One TD either way could vault anyone to the top or bottom of this list so rankings are difficult to adhere to.

Open to discussion with anyone but this is what I'm seeing.

 

[jdoggydogg]

Assuming this is PPR, I'd rank them thus:

Stacy: I think even if Tre steals carries, both could be very productive behind that O-line.

Spiller: Much like Ellington, lack of goalline touches won't detract from their explosiveness.

Jennings: Primary RB on a team that loves to run the ball. I don't care about the TD vulture, Jennings will outperform his ADP.
Gerhart: An underrated talent, but groin injury concerns me. Not willing to rank him higher unless he recovers.

Vereen: I have Vereen on my dynasty team, so understand I like him. Just feels like there's a very crowded backfield in NE.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

This is the essence of tier-based drafting. There is no compelling reason any one should be ranked higher than another unless something changes during preseason.

In fact, based on projections (0.5 PPR) it is easy to throw R. Mathews / A. Morris / C. Johnson and maybe even R. Bush / D. Martin / T. Rich into this tier.

Just monitor in the draft when the run on these guys begins and take the last one available.

Morris

--------

Spiller

Ellington

CJ2k

--------

Bush

Stacy

Martin

Vereen

--------

Jennings

Gerhart

TRich

 

[Borden]

This is the essence of tier-based drafting. There is no compelling reason any one should be ranked higher than another unless something changes during preseason.

In fact, based on projections (0.5 PPR) it is easy to throw R. Mathews / A. Morris / C. Johnson and maybe even R. Bush / D. Martin / T. Rich into this tier.

Just monitor in the draft when the run on these guys begins and take the last one available.

In general I agree. But for some, one of these back may not really belong in the tier (either higher or lower). For me, Vereen and Jennings are not in the same tier as Stacy, Gerhart and Spiller.

Could you help me understand your thinking? These are my projections in 0.5 PPR that form the basis of my rankings.

13. S. Vereen 450/3 - 70/650/5 = 193 pts

This is the ideal situation. I would have to assume this is the ceiling for him. More so when you consider he hasn't completed a full season.

14. T. Gerhart 1,000/7 - 35/275/1 = 193 pts

15. R. Bush 800/5 - 50/450/2 = 192

16. Z. Stacy 1,050/8 - 30/180/1 = 192

Stacy only really played in 14 games last year. Last year he put up 973/7 - 26/141/1 So, you're projecting less rushing production from Stacy but more rec yards per game. Is this because of Mason?

17. CJ Spiller 1,000/5 - 40/300/2 = 192

18. R. Mathews 1,050/7 - 30/225/1 = 191

Decrease in rushing yards but increase in receiving production?

19. T. Rich 1,000/6 - 30/275/2 = 191

20. R. Jennings 700/7 - 55/450/1 = 191

21. D. Martin 900/6 - 45/350/1 = 190

If you take Martins 22 game rush yardage average and multiple that by 16 you get 1389. That's almost a 400 yard drop. Yet you have his catch total almost exactly on his average but his catch yardage down.

22. A. Morris 1,150/10 - 10/75/0 = 188

The Redskins tied for the worst record in the league last year. So with RG3 100%, a new OC and a proven deep threat to keep guys out of the box and you still have Morris hitting a career low and getting 125 yards less than last year.

23. C. Johnson 1,000/7 - 31/225/1 = 186

I can see some guys with higher upside (Spiller/Gerhart) and some with higher floors (Bush/Morris) but don't really see how anyone of this group has a certain enough of a role with proven historical production to project into a totally different tier. One TD either way could vault anyone to the top or bottom of this list so rankings are difficult to adhere to.

Open to discussion with anyone but this is what I'm seeing.

I'm not trying to nitpick or be overly critical. Just somethings that jumped out at me. This is a tough group to project because they all have question marks surrounding them. Pretty good job overall.

 

[PhantomJB]

Could you help me understand your thinking? These are my projections in 0.5 PPR that form the basis of my rankings.

13. S. Vereen 450/3 - 70/650/5 = 193 pts

This is the ideal situation. I would have to assume this is the ceiling for him. More so when you consider he hasn't completed a full season.

14. T. Gerhart 1,000/7 - 35/275/1 = 193 pts

15. R. Bush 800/5 - 50/450/2 = 192

16. Z. Stacy 1,050/8 - 30/180/1 = 192

Stacy only really played in 14 games last year. Last year he put up 973/7 - 26/141/1 So, you're projecting less rushing production from Stacy but more rec yards per game. Is this because of Mason?

17. CJ Spiller 1,000/5 - 40/300/2 = 192

18. R. Mathews 1,050/7 - 30/225/1 = 191

Decrease in rushing yards but increase in receiving production?

19. T. Rich 1,000/6 - 30/275/2 = 191

20. R. Jennings 700/7 - 55/450/1 = 191

21. D. Martin 900/6 - 45/350/1 = 190

If you take Martins 22 game rush yardage average and multiple that by 16 you get 1389. That's almost a 400 yard drop. Yet you have his catch total almost exactly on his average but his catch yardage down.

22. A. Morris 1,150/10 - 10/75/0 = 188

The Redskins tied for the worst record in the league last year. So with RG3 100%, a new OC and a proven deep threat to keep guys out of the box and you still have Morris hitting a career low and getting 125 yards less than last year.

23. C. Johnson 1,000/7 - 31/225/1 = 186

I can see some guys with higher upside (Spiller/Gerhart) and some with higher floors (Bush/Morris) but don't really see how anyone of this group has a certain enough of a role with proven historical production to project into a totally different tier. One TD either way could vault anyone to the top or bottom of this list so rankings are difficult to adhere to.

Open to discussion with anyone but this is what I'm seeing.

I'm not trying to nitpick or be overly critical. Just somethings that jumped out at me. This is a tough group to project because they all have question marks surrounding them. Pretty good job overall.

Not at all. Appreciate the discussion.

Vereen - 70 recpts. Agreed it is probably his ceiling. Although he did average an insane 5.9 recpts/game last year. 70 is about 4.4/game which could be argued is still aggressive for a projection but he's one guy I'm personally just bullish on.

Stacy - Good point. I knocked down Stacy's projected rush yds due to the Tre Mason RBBC threat. To be consistent Stacy's receiving stats should probably also be adjusted downward maybe 10-15%.

Mathews - I'm comfortable projecting Mathews with fewer rush yds than last year but higher receiving yds for following reason(s): Mathews had 285 carries last year which I just don't see as repeatable, especially given the D.Brown signing. I used 240 carries at Mathews' career ypc of 4.4. On the receptions, I think Mathews is highly capable. Prior to 2013 Mathews averaged 3.4 recpts/game. I don't think the new OC will skew RB recpts toward Woodhead the way Whisenhunt did. So I gave Mathews a slight bump from last year but still well below his career recpts/game avg.

Martin - Just not a fan with Sims, Rainey and James in the mix with the OC openly talking about RBBC. May change views once we see how preseason plays out.

Morris - I'm buying into the belief that Gruden's offense will rely less on Morris than Shanny did. Also factoring Helu taking away some snaps and playing a Gino-lite role since Morris not known for pass catching abilities and Gruden likes that aspect.

I also think that rankings could possibly differ from projections since someone may value upside (e.g. Spiller) over a high floor (e.g. Morris, Mathews) or factor in injury risk (e.g. R.Bush) more.

 

[rocketsauce]

Where does ellington and martin fit in with these rankings?

To me they fit into the tier above the guys that I like to call the "Grab a Stud WR instead of these guys" tier.

Haha, absolutely. Love it.

 

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Loving the discussion in here....