Predict Pujol's Next Contract (1 Viewer)

[dparker713]

Do we know what the offer on the table is?

No, they are negotiating "in private." Most of the "reports" out are that the Pujols camp is insistent on 10 years, and the Cards are hesitant to go beyond 6. Money has not been a perceived issue as Pujols has been pretty open about wanting to find a way to stay in St. Louis.To be honest, I'm not sure of the accuracy of any of the reporting being done on this issue, because it involves far too many "sources" and has too few actual quotes from people making decisions.

Regarding the bold... huh? Of course it's about money. Years IS money. If that wasn't about money, it'd be done already. Mauer's deal was done in virtually no time. That was still a whole lot about money, but he didn't play around like this. Took less to stay home, and that was that.The Cards are probably saying they are hesitant to go over 6 years, but they know they're on the hook for 8+ here. They are right to want to keep it to 6. That's the only sane move, but the fans would kill them over it. They'll have to do 8.

Albert has to realize that STL isn't New York or Boston. The revenues just aren't there in that market to make an absurd deal happen. If he wants to hold STL to $300 mil over 10 years, he'll have to bear the personal responsibility for them not being competitive in five years. That's just how it goes. I know the man is a walking baseball Jesus, but let's get real here.

I was talking on a per year basis. I don't think either side questions that it should be in the 25-27 mil per season range. The disagreement is over the length of the deal. Obviously, you're right in saying "years IS money", but I sincerely doubt they are at the negotiating table right now quibbling over whether it is 24 or 26 mil for 8 seasons. It's a matter of one of the sides budging from their length of contract demand.

Ryan Howard just signed for 25 mil a year. Pujols will certainly be looking for significantly more than that.

 

[RnR]

Ryan Howard just signed for 25 mil a year. Pujols will certainly be looking for significantly more than that.

Unlikely he'll get it if he plans on staying in St. Louis at the length that he's asking. That Howard extension was at 5 years, Pujols is seeking 10. No one questions he's worth 30+ mil for the next 5 years, the tricky part is negotiating the last 3-5 years of a 10-year deal.

 

[Wrigley]

I don't know, another $50M+ is the difference between 8 and 10 years

Seems to be a #### load lot of money

It's always about the money

 

[Mr. Pickles]

I was talking on a per year basis. I don't think either side questions that it should be in the 25-27 mil per season range. The disagreement is over the length of the deal. Obviously, you're right in saying "years IS money", but I sincerely doubt they are at the negotiating table right now quibbling over whether it is 24 or 26 mil for 8 seasons. It's a matter of one of the sides budging from their length of contract demand.

I know what you were talking about, and that's why it's all about money. There's no reasonable way to conclude that it's "not about money" when we're talking about guaranteed years at a crazy high salary. It's about money. Always.

 

[dparker713]

Ryan Howard just signed for 25 mil a year. Pujols will certainly be looking for significantly more than that.

Unlikely he'll get it if he plans on staying in St. Louis at the length that he's asking. That Howard extension was at 5 years, Pujols is seeking 10. No one questions he's worth 30+ mil for the next 5 years, the tricky part is negotiating the last 3-5 years of a 10-year deal.

The Howard extension put him under contract for 7 years, it was an additional 5 years. The Cards can claim ARod's deal is an outlier, but good luck trying to claim both ARod and Howard's deals are aberations. If the Cards wont go well above 25 mil a year, someone else will - nd both Pujols and his agent know that.

 

[Michael Brown]

Thing is, $30 mil per year NOW isn't the same as $30 mil per year in 8 or 9 years. Baseball salaries are always increasing, and I highly doubt his salary would take up 30% of the team's payroll ten years from now.

Seems like they can get it done at $220/8 with huge bonuses for milestone incentives a la A-Rod.

 

[curta269]

This is nice and all, but it completely hamstrings the club to do anything over the next decade. Not sure this is a good idea. I hope the scouting department is unbelievable. The Yankees can get away with crap like this. St. Louis? No chance.

I'm all for team loyalty and keeping him a Cardinal for life, but he has to give a hometown discount a la Joe Mauer (8 years, 184 million). And keep in mind that Mauer will be turning 28. I'm convinced Pujols is 33.

On 99 out of 100 players, I'd be agreeing with you. Pujols is that exception to me. He's a "once every couple of generations" type talent. In fact, he may go down as the best first baseman of all-time when it is said and done. That's the kind of player you extend payroll for over the next decade.We're talking about a team with a 90 mil payroll. You're telling me they can't sustain ~100 mil for a decade? Have you seen what that franchise does in terms of ticket and merchandising sales? They own like 8 states.

Everyone keeps approaching this like they are paying him pennies right now, but he made roughly 15 mil last season. If they haven't been budgeting on paying him 25 mil+ at the end of this current contract, that's poor foresight on their part.

With a healthy Pujols, Holliday, Wainwright, Carpenter, Rasmus, etc., they have a window still open for 3-5 years that could bring a World Championship or two if things break right. Will they have issues staying competitive in the last 3-4 years of a 10-year pact? Possibly, but contracts like Carpenter and Holliday will be off the books then. It is really hard to say what the payroll situation will look like at that point because it involves way too much speculation, but that's why I think it is important to front-load the contract. If they're paying him 15 mil at age 40, it won't be the end of the world in term of the yearly payroll.

Also, the "hometown discount" was given in his last contract. He has played his prime at well under market value. He will re-sign again with the Cardinals for under market value if they will commit to the years he wants. Doesn't seem too unreasonable to me. He'll get 10/300 on the open market.

The "hometown discount" wasn't given to him in his last deal. He had only played 3 seasons and still had 3 more under the team's control. It was a lot of money at that time for a player who wasn't going to be a free agent for 3 more years.Right now, the Cardinals continually draw in excess of 3 million fans per year. How many more can they pack into the place when he is going for HR records?

Even if they bump up the payroll to over $100 million and they give Pujols $30 million a year, that is still 30% to 1 player. They have only $70 million leftover to pay the other 24.

Here is what I would offer. $250 million over 10 years. After he retires, pay him $5 million a year for however long he wants as an advisor or some position where he comes to spring training and makes several appearances at the park each season.

If 10 yrs, 250 mil was on the table from the Cards we wouldn't be having this discussion. Pujols signs that contract. This squabble is over years, not necessarily total dollar amount.You do realize its a little absurd that you're completely fine with a 10/250 deal, but completely opposed to a 10/300 deal, right? 5 mil a season is one bad contract to a middle reliever. The difference certainly won't break the bank for a team with a $100 mil payroll.

As for "How much more can they bring in with attendance over 3 million already?", I don't have a finite answer to that question. I'll pose one to you though, "How much do they stand to lose by letting the most popular player since Stan the Man walk over a few years on the back of a contract?"

They drew over 3 million fans in '98, '99 and '00 which was before Pujols. Of course, that was probably inflated due to McGwire. They have drawn over 3 million every year from '98 on except for '03.Do you really think Pujols will sign for a deal less than ARod? It sounds like he wants to be the highest paid player, which he deserves. St. Louis just won't be able to have a very competitive team if they have to pay that much money for one guy.

 

[RnR]

Ryan Howard just signed for 25 mil a year. Pujols will certainly be looking for significantly more than that.

Unlikely he'll get it if he plans on staying in St. Louis at the length that he's asking. That Howard extension was at 5 years, Pujols is seeking 10. No one questions he's worth 30+ mil for the next 5 years, the tricky part is negotiating the last 3-5 years of a 10-year deal.

The Howard extension put him under contract for 7 years, it was an additional 5 years. The Cards can claim ARod's deal is an outlier, but good luck trying to claim both ARod and Howard's deals are aberations. If the Cards wont go well above 25 mil a year, someone else will - nd both Pujols and his agent know that.

Just because the Howard extension happened doesn't mean it was a smart decision.Of course everyone is aware of that. I'm confident the Cards are willing to pay more than 25 mil per, they just don't want to do it for 10 years.

 

[Dr. Awesome]

St. Louis just won't be able to have a very competitive team if they have to pay that much money for one guy.

Sure, if St. Louis doesn't increase their payroll. But they certainly have the means to do so.

 

[RnR]

St. Louis just won't be able to have a very competitive team if they have to pay that much money for one guy.

Everyone keeps saying this like they don't already commit a decent chunk of payroll to him already. He's making 15 mil this season, do you really think a payroll increase of another 15 mil per yr (paying him 30 mil per yr) is going to kill this franchise? Especially when they've supposedly been "saving" for this contract?

 

[RnR]

St. Louis just won't be able to have a very competitive team if they have to pay that much money for one guy.

Sure, if St. Louis doesn't increase their payroll. But they certainly have the means to do so.

 

[dparker713]

St. Louis just won't be able to have a very competitive team if they have to pay that much money for one guy.

Thats just not true. They'll have less payroll flexibility and won't be able to blow money of 5 scrappy MI that cant hit or play defense, but if they spend the remaining money wisely they'd be able to field a competitive team year in and year out.

 

[David Yudkin]

The Cards could always do what the Red Sox do . . . jack up the ticket prices to pay for their signings. If they upped their tickets by an average of $5, that would pay for half a year of Albert right there.

 

[Brady Marino]

The Cards could always do what the Red Sox do . . . jack up the ticket prices to pay for their signings. If they upped their tickets by an average of $5, that would pay for half a year of Albert right there.

While the Cards have a very loyal fan base, I don't see fans paying the prices the Red Sox, Yankees, or even the Cubs charge their fans. Not in this economy anyway.

 

[Brady Marino]

I do have to say that my opinion of Pujols is somewhat lessened because of the hardball tactics he's playing here. What, is contract negotiations really going to affect your jog around the warning track during spring training?

But, if the Cards DO re-up Pujols, then they might have to *GULP* build a strong farm system and rely on more youngsters in the future to get by. However, that might require a coach that isn't as youngster-hating as LaRussa.

 

[David Yudkin]

The Cards could always do what the Red Sox do . . . jack up the ticket prices to pay for their signings. If they upped their tickets by an average of $5, that would pay for half a year of Albert right there.

While the Cards have a very loyal fan base, I don't see fans paying the prices the Red Sox, Yankees, or even the Cubs charge their fans. Not in this economy anyway.

Boston typically ups the price of premium tickets a fair amount and the regular joe seats a little bit each year. Either way, the Sox sell out every game, scalpers can get double or triple the face value and huge mark ups against the Yankees. Long story short, everyone wants Sox tickets and they are hard to come by at reasonable prices. In Boston, people just expect it, accept it, and end up paying hundreds of dollars to take a family to a game.Do you really think if the Cards raised ticket prices $5 for cheaper seats and $10 on premium seats that people wouldn't pay it? It looks like there've drawn at least 3.3 million people since 2005. There has to be a decent demand for tickets.

 

[Eephus]

The Cards could always do what the Red Sox do . . . jack up the ticket prices to pay for their signings. If they upped their tickets by an average of $5, that would pay for half a year of Albert right there.

While the Cards have a very loyal fan base, I don't see fans paying the prices the Red Sox, Yankees, or even the Cubs charge their fans. Not in this economy anyway.

Boston typically ups the price of premium tickets a fair amount and the regular joe seats a little bit each year. Either way, the Sox sell out every game, scalpers can get double or triple the face value and huge mark ups against the Yankees. Long story short, everyone wants Sox tickets and they are hard to come by at reasonable prices. In Boston, people just expect it, accept it, and end up paying hundreds of dollars to take a family to a game.Do you really think if the Cards raised ticket prices $5 for cheaper seats and $10 on premium seats that people wouldn't pay it? It looks like there've drawn at least 3.3 million people since 2005. There has to be a decent demand for tickets.

Redbirds fans would squawk but as long as the team is winning, they'd show up. Even in this economy, we haven't reached a tipping point with baseball ticket prices yet. But I don't think it's inconceivable that this could happen. There could be some spillover effect of fan frustration over NFL and NBA labor problems into other pro sports.

 

[dparker713]

Ravich reporting the Cards only offered between 19 and 23 mil a year and that the length of the deal wasn't a problem for Pujols. Figure they're atleast 5 mil apart at this point. Sounds to me like Albert will be a free agent.

 

[RnR]

Ravich reporting the Cards only offered between 19 and 23 mil a year and that the length of the deal wasn't a problem for Pujols. Figure they're atleast 5 mil apart at this point. Sounds to me like Albert will be a free agent.

Yeah, that's a 180 from everything that was being reported prior to today. If true, he's long gone.

 

[Mile High]

St. Louis just won't be able to have a very competitive team if they have to pay that much money for one guy.

Everyone keeps saying this like they don't already commit a decent chunk of payroll to him already. He's making 15 mil this season, do you really think a payroll increase of another 15 mil per yr (paying him 30 mil per yr) is going to kill this franchise? Especially when they've supposedly been "saving" for this contract?

 

[Mile High]

Ravich reporting the Cards only offered between 19 and 23 mil a year and that the length of the deal wasn't a problem for Pujols. Figure they're atleast 5 mil apart at this point. Sounds to me like Albert will be a free agent.

He will sign with the Cubs and the St. Louis fans will cry about it for ever. Give him his money.

 

[boubucarow]

I can't believe it if they only offered 23 million or less. If they agree on the years, I don't see the problem here.

 

[[icon]]

IMO He's worth at least 27/10 to any suitor. Sure he's worth 30 on the front end... and he may only be worth 15+ in the end (though likely more in that market). I think 270 over 10 is a pretty good figure for a player of his caliber. Moreso in the AL as he might be a liability in the field on the tail end of his contract.

 

[Premier]

I really hope that report about 19-23 is false. They deserve to lose him if that's the case.

 

[Limp Ditka]

Ravich reporting the Cards only offered between 19 and 23 mil a year and that the length of the deal wasn't a problem for Pujols. Figure they're atleast 5 mil apart at this point. Sounds to me like Albert will be a free agent.

He will sign with the Cubs and the St. Louis fans will cry about it for ever. Give him his money.

I'd set the line at World Series Titles (Cards vs Cubs) over the life of the contract as Cardinals -0.5Let him sign with the Cubs. All that money in a player that's going to start declining as the ink dries will just help keep the ineptness clock ticking.

 

[Dr. Awesome]

I really hope that report about 19-23 is false. They deserve to lose him if that's the case.

 

[Michael Brown]

Ravich reporting the Cards only offered between 19 and 23 mil a year and that the length of the deal wasn't a problem for Pujols. Figure they're atleast 5 mil apart at this point. Sounds to me like Albert will be a free agent.

He will sign with the Cubs and the St. Louis fans will cry about it for ever. Give him his money.

I'd set the line at World Series Titles (Cards vs Cubs) over the life of the contract as Cardinals -0.5Let him sign with the Cubs. All that money in a player that's going to start declining as the ink dries will just help keep the ineptness clock ticking.

He could decline each year for the next five and still be performing at a higher level than the peak seasons of 99.9% of players who ever played.

 

[gianmarco]

SI.com reported on Tuesday night that the Cardinals had offered an eight-year contract worth less than $30 million per year, but likely more than $25 million per year, while the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported that the club was "weighing" a guaranteed eighth year as of Wednesday morning.

 

[Brady Marino]

Let him sign with the Cubs. All that money in a player that's going to start declining as the ink dries will just help keep the ineptness clock ticking.

In four years, Soriano will be 38 and in the last year of his contract making $18 mil. Pujols would be 35 (we think) making ~$25-$30 mil. AWESOME.

 

[otello]

Updates?

 

[Daywalker]

I'd guess he's made 5-10mill extra this postseason.

8 years 260/mill.

St. Louis, Tex, Angels, Yankees and Cubs I see as the main contenders. Lot of big-money teams. Contract is going to be huge.

 

[dparker713]

I'd guess he's made 5-10mill extra this postseason.8 years 260/mill.St. Louis, Tex, Angels, Yankees and Cubs I see as the main contenders. Lot of big-money teams. Contract is going to be huge.

Why on earth would you think the Yankees are a contender? What, are they going to have Tex DH?

 

[sports_fan]

The new Cubs front office has to make them a more attractive option for him doesn't it?

 

[Tackling Dummies]

7/195

 

[Fensalk]

Depends on how much money the Yankees have left over after signing Fielder and Wilson.

 

[Premier]

10 years, one gazillion dollars.

 

[Daywalker]

I'd guess he's made 5-10mill extra this postseason.8 years 260/mill.St. Louis, Tex, Angels, Yankees and Cubs I see as the main contenders. Lot of big-money teams. Contract is going to be huge.

Why on earth would you think the Yankees are a contender? What, are they going to have Tex DH?

When have the Yankees not gone after the top FA? Especially one who performs in the playoffs. What is so crazy about having Tex DH? They put Arod on third despite being a better SS then Jeter. If Tex doesn't like it then the Yanks would gladly trade him and their would be plenty of takers.All about the YES network. Why wouldn't you want Pujols along with all the milestones he's going to reach all over your network. Makes financial, most important, as well as baseball sense.Tex is no Pujols. Big upgrade. With lack of SP's available putting your money in Pujols is not a bad route. Give C.J. Wilson 20mill a year or Pujols 33mill? Easy choice IMO. You don't think Pujols pays the difference with peripheral revenue streams?Yanks will be players in this.

 

[Daywalker]

Word is Pujols wants 10 years OR 30 mil per year. Cards unlikely to go past 8 years.8 Years- 224 Million

This has about the right feel to it. I'll piggyback on this prediction.

28mill/year. Not even close.

 

[dparker713]

When have the Yankees not gone after the top FA?

Last season, they were not in on either Crawford or Werth, they were in on Lee2009 - they broke the bank2008 - Everyone sucked, unless you count the 3 players they resigned that were never going anywhere.2007 - They weren't in on Daisuke, Alfonso Soriano, Aramis Ramirez, Barry Zito or Barry Bonds in any serious way.Sure, they get involved alot, but they don't get involved all the time.

 

[Daywalker]

When have the Yankees not gone after the top FA?

Last season, they were not in on either Crawford or Werth, they were in on Lee2009 - they broke the bank2008 - Everyone sucked, unless you count the 3 players they resigned that were never going anywhere.2007 - They weren't in on Daisuke, Alfonso Soriano, Aramis Ramirez, Barry Zito or Barry Bonds in any serious way.Sure, they get involved alot, but they don't get involved all the time.

Not going out on a limb to say the Yanks will go after the biggest attraction in baseball as well as a great playoff performer. Tex going to DH not going to stand in the way. Coming off a year when Holliday made more then Pujols, he's going to break the bank.

 

[Daywalker]

No way Pujols goes for less then 30mill/year. Not a chance in hell. He's been underpaid for 10 years. He's a big time charity guy. He's not going to leave 40mill on table.

 

[Daywalker]

When have the Yankees not gone after the top FA?

Last season, they were not in on either Crawford or Werth, they were in on Lee2009 - they broke the bank2008 - Everyone sucked, unless you count the 3 players they resigned that were never going anywhere.2007 - They weren't in on Daisuke, Alfonso Soriano, Aramis Ramirez, Barry Zito or Barry Bonds in any serious way.Sure, they get involved alot, but they don't get involved all the time.

Lee, Tex and CC were the premier players out of that lot. Yanks made top offer to all three.

 

[dparker713]

When have the Yankees not gone after the top FA?

Last season, they were not in on either Crawford or Werth, they were in on Lee2009 - they broke the bank2008 - Everyone sucked, unless you count the 3 players they resigned that were never going anywhere.2007 - They weren't in on Daisuke, Alfonso Soriano, Aramis Ramirez, Barry Zito or Barry Bonds in any serious way.Sure, they get involved alot, but they don't get involved all the time.

Lee, Tex and CC were the premier players out of that lot. Yanks made top offer to all three.

Thats irrelevant to what you claimed, and the Yankees offer to Lee was only the most total value, not the highest per year.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Despite his outburst in Game 3, Pujols is batting .227 in the World Series. 0 for 16 in the Series excluding Game 3. Oof.

 

[Oh Yes!]

Despite his outburst in Game 3, Pujols is batting .227 in the World Series. 0 for 16 in the Series excluding Game 3. Oof.

i know its not your point, but they clearly woudlnt be there w/o him. he carried a slightly above avg team to the WS. he could push a good team to multiple WS titles...

 

[Ghost Rider]

Very true.

And his double did start the 9th inning rally. It was just frustrating to see him struggle for most of the World Series.

 

[sports_fan]

Despite his outburst in Game 3, Pujols is batting .227 in the World Series. 0 for 16 in the Series excluding Game 3. Oof.

i know its not your point, but they clearly woudlnt be there w/o him. he carried a slightly above avg team to the WS. he could push a good team to multiple WS titles...

Also, his average would probably be higher if they pitched to him. He has what 4 or 5 intentional walks?

 

[thetman]

No chance the Cards give him 30 mil per season. My best guess is 7 years, 189 mil or he's gone. It's up to Pujols if he cares more about being a Cardinal or being paid top dollar.

 

[Daywalker]

No chance the Cards give him 30 mil per season. My best guess is 7 years, 189 mil or he's gone. It's up to Pujols if he cares more about being a Cardinal or being paid top dollar.

Or he thinks he could do a lot of good with an extra 40-50mill. Pujols has been underpaid for a decade. Cards just overpaid Holliday. Pujols should push for every dollar.Shouldn't been on the millionaire to take less. Should be on the billionaire to pay market value for their franchise player who has helped bring two rings.

 

[Mr. Know-It-All]

No chance the Cards give him 30 mil per season. My best guess is 7 years, 189 mil or he's gone. It's up to Pujols if he cares more about being a Cardinal or being paid top dollar.

Or he thinks he could do a lot of good with an extra 40-50mill. Pujols has been underpaid for a decade. Cards just overpaid Holliday. Pujols should push for every dollar.Shouldn't been on the millionaire to take less. Should be on the billionaire to pay market value for their franchise player who has helped bring two rings.

Agreed - the owners did this to themselves - that said Pujols will take somewhat of a discount to remain in St Louis. Guaranteed.