Predicting Young WR Success (1 Viewer)

[Bob Magaw]

the ability to run fast and in control...

OK, that is really two factors, or more accurately, the combination of those factors...

(also, prediction in title was kind of a strong term... i'm thinking more in terms of if the discussed factor gives a better handle on probabilities of success or failure)...

WRs could fail by being fast but out of control and just as surely from being in control but slow...

two of the best contemporary WRs i have seen in this context are marvin harrison & torry holt... i may not exactly be going out on a limb there... they are among the best WRs in the league, & probably in league history, and they have many attributes that make them succesful (not just what i cited above)...

no doubt a WR could still fail if they were missing other important traits... hands, the toughness and athleticism/agility to escape the jam, the football IQ to run good routes, concentration to catch the ball in traffic, elusiveness, natural RAC ability, etc...

IF those things appear to be in order, AND the WR exhibits the ability to run fast and under control, that would seem like a good prospect to target...

what prompted this whole thread for me is to discuss if this seems like an important factor (combo of), & to think about WRs that might fit this profile... more vets, and especially the past three draft classes, getting back to using as a predictive tool... and in past three draft classes, not only the obvious high profile prospects (some who i will name ), but also non-obvious ones...

class of '06 - greg jennings

'07 - calvin johnson

'08 - ?

 

[Lash]

'08 - Earl Bennett

 

[pinequick]

the ability to run fast and in control...OK, that is really two factors, or more accurately, the combination of those factors... (also, prediction in title was kind of a strong term... i'm thinking more in terms of if the discussed factor gives a better handle on probabilities of success or failure)... WRs could fail by being fast but out of control and just as surely from being in control but slow...two of the best contemporary WRs i have seen in this context are marvin harrison & torry holt... i may not exactly be going out on a limb there... they are among the best WRs in the league, & probably in league history, and they have many attributes that make them succesful (not just what i cited above)...no doubt a WR could still fail if they were missing other important traits... hands, the toughness and athleticism/agility to escape the jam, the football IQ to run good routes, concentration to catch the ball in traffic, elusiveness, natural RAC ability, etc...IF those things appear to be in order, AND the WR exhibits the ability to run fast and under control, that would seem like a good prospect to target...what prompted this whole thread for me is to discuss if this seems like an important factor (combo of), & to think about WRs that might fit this profile... more vets, and especially the past three draft classes, getting back to using as a predictive tool... and in past three draft classes, not only the obvious high profile prospects (some who i will name ), but also non-obvious ones...class of '06 - greg jennings'07 - calvin johnson'08 - ?

I really like the "speed and control" idea, but the one player who I *really* thought had both of these attributes in spades? Who I thought would light up the NFL? Who I thought had great body control? Who I drafted with confidence in my dynasty league? Peter Warrick.Hmph...

 

[Bob Magaw]

touche about warrick...

i forget what he had in terms of surrounding talent?

i think he came after carl pickens, his career may have overlapped in part with corey dillon & jeff blake, & may not have had an above average OL or defense during his tenure in CIN... & not sure where he went after, & how old he was then (SEA?)... also, did he have a knee injury or some other leg injuries?

your point was a good one in that it reminds us that football is the ultimate team sport... there may have been WRs in league history that could have fared much better (or worse), depending on circumstances... were they lucky enough to have an at least average to good QB, same for OL, coaching staff that plays to their strengths & designs plays that help them get open, etc...

 

[moderated]

the ability to run fast and in control...OK, that is really two factors, or more accurately, the combination of those factors... (also, prediction in title was kind of a strong term... i'm thinking more in terms of if the discussed factor gives a better handle on probabilities of success or failure)... WRs could fail by being fast but out of control and just as surely from being in control but slow...two of the best contemporary WRs i have seen in this context are marvin harrison & torry holt... i may not exactly be going out on a limb there... they are among the best WRs in the league, & probably in league history, and they have many attributes that make them succesful (not just what i cited above)...no doubt a WR could still fail if they were missing other important traits... hands, the toughness and athleticism/agility to escape the jam, the football IQ to run good routes, concentration to catch the ball in traffic, elusiveness, natural RAC ability, etc...IF those things appear to be in order, AND the WR exhibits the ability to run fast and under control, that would seem like a good prospect to target...what prompted this whole thread for me is to discuss if this seems like an important factor (combo of), & to think about WRs that might fit this profile... more vets, and especially the past three draft classes, getting back to using as a predictive tool... and in past three draft classes, not only the obvious high profile prospects (some who i will name ), but also non-obvious ones...class of '06 - greg jennings'07 - calvin johnson'08 - ?

I really like the "speed and control" idea, but the one player who I *really* thought had both of these attributes in spades? Who I thought would light up the NFL? Who I thought had great body control? Who I drafted with confidence in my dynasty league? Peter Warrick.Hmph...

The one thing Warrick lacked in spades is another trait bob listed, "the toughness and athleticism/agility to escape the jam".I actually think the above is one of the most important building blocks for a WR to be successful in the NFL. A guy who is a bit under the radar who i don't think any corner can jam consistantly at the line is Roddy White. Watch how he uses his leverage at the line, it's really amazing. Guess his all-state wrestling history probably comes in handy in that regard.

 

[pinequick]

touche about warrick...i forget what he had in terms of surrounding talent?i think he came after carl pickens, his career may have overlapped in part with corey dillon & jeff blake, & may not have had an above average OL or defense during his tenure in CIN... & not sure where he went after, & how old he was then (SEA?)... also, did he have a knee injury or some other leg injuries?your point was a good one in that it reminds us that football is the ultimate team sport... there may have been WRs in league history that could have fared much better (or worse), depending on circumstances... were they lucky enough to have an at least average to good QB, same for OL, coaching staff that plays to their strengths & designs plays that help them get open, etc...

It's just funny that you created this thread, because I have alway thought that about WRs, too--body control, or playing under control, is just as important as speed. And, to be fair, I don't think that Warrick was ever a burner. But man, could he cut in college. And I still remember a twisting catch he made in the end zone, I think in his last bowl game at FSU. I thought that he was the goods...

 

[Bob Magaw]

the ability to run fast and in control...OK, that is really two factors, or more accurately, the combination of those factors... (also, prediction in title was kind of a strong term... i'm thinking more in terms of if the discussed factor gives a better handle on probabilities of success or failure)... WRs could fail by being fast but out of control and just as surely from being in control but slow...two of the best contemporary WRs i have seen in this context are marvin harrison & torry holt... i may not exactly be going out on a limb there... they are among the best WRs in the league, & probably in league history, and they have many attributes that make them succesful (not just what i cited above)...no doubt a WR could still fail if they were missing other important traits... hands, the toughness and athleticism/agility to escape the jam, the football IQ to run good routes, concentration to catch the ball in traffic, elusiveness, natural RAC ability, etc...IF those things appear to be in order, AND the WR exhibits the ability to run fast and under control, that would seem like a good prospect to target...what prompted this whole thread for me is to discuss if this seems like an important factor (combo of), & to think about WRs that might fit this profile... more vets, and especially the past three draft classes, getting back to using as a predictive tool... and in past three draft classes, not only the obvious high profile prospects (some who i will name ), but also non-obvious ones...class of '06 - greg jennings'07 - calvin johnson'08 - ?

I really like the "speed and control" idea, but the one player who I *really* thought had both of these attributes in spades? Who I thought would light up the NFL? Who I thought had great body control? Who I drafted with confidence in my dynasty league? Peter Warrick.Hmph...

The one thing Warrick lacked in spades is another trait bob listed, "the toughness and athleticism/agility to escape the jam".I actually think the above is one of the most important building blocks for a WR to be successful in the NFL. A guy who is a bit under the radar who i don't think any corner can jam consistantly at the line is Roddy White. Watch how he uses his leverage at the line, it's really amazing. Guess his all-state wrestling history probably comes in handy in that regard.

thanx for alluding to athleticism and "cross-training", moderated...i'm big on looking at if football players competed at a high level in other sports, & how those other skills might bear on football...& not just at WR... one reason i was high on NO DE charles grant (& he hasn't always met my expectations in recent seasons based on his first two with saints, but some of that may have been injury related, & in another surrounding cast point, he has been without a great DT for most/all of his tenure in NO)... he broke or tied GA state record in rushing TDs (season, career?), since broken i think by at least darius walker...i'm not sure how great a pro baseball prospect desean jackson was, & if he could have made it to the big leagues, but he was reportedly very good, & he has body control that stands out on his highlights... that part bodes well, but we will see if he will fall for lack of some other critical missing element in the toolbox or constellation of traits that point to success... and if PHI does things like put him in motion to make it easier to get clean release...the point about white's wrestling background & how that translates to usefull skills on the football field was an excellent one, and should be a thread in itself (& not limited to WR)...NE OG neal competed at a high level in college as a wrestler (national champ?), & that has obvious relevance to skill needed by OL... again, there must be many great wrestlers that would probably be flops as NFL OL, but IF they show other important traits needed to succeed at their position, & are tracking nicely as pros in first season or two, i always like to hear what they have done athletically in the past, in order to help gain greater insight into how their future career might unfold...i think CIN OL stacy andrews (brother of PHI OL) was a great track athlete, possibly in shot put... success there or in a track weight event like discuss would suggest good explosion & footwork...his name escapes me, but SF in super bowl years had a great DT that was exceptional in shot put or discus, & may have set TX (& even national) record (michael ?)...

 

[FUBAR]

i'm not sure how great a pro baseball prospect desean jackson was, & if he could have made it to the big leagues, but he was reportedly very good, & he has body control that stands out on his highlights... that part bodes well, but we will see if he will fall for lack of some other critical missing element in the toolbox or constellation of traits that point to success... and if PHI does things like put him in motion to make it easier to get clean release...

funny that you mention Jackson, he's the first one I thought of when you mentioned speed + control. You're right that there are other concerns.Doesn't speed + control correlate to return duties as well?

 

[Bob Magaw]

i'm not sure how great a pro baseball prospect desean jackson was, & if he could have made it to the big leagues, but he was reportedly very good, & he has body control that stands out on his highlights... that part bodes well, but we will see if he will fall for lack of some other critical missing element in the toolbox or constellation of traits that point to success... and if PHI does things like put him in motion to make it easier to get clean release...

funny that you mention Jackson, he's the first one I thought of when you mentioned speed + control. You're right that there are other concerns.Doesn't speed + control correlate to return duties as well?

absolutely that would be important in a return context... otherwise they would be running into backs of blockers & into defenders...it is also important to point out that just as there are factors that point towards success, so to there are factors that could foreshadow failure...as has been pointed out elsewhere, at about 5'9" 170, jackson is tiny, & it is hard to think of very many (any?) WRs that have succeeded at a high level with that dimunitive of a stature... so if he stays that size, it could be a deal breaker...i think santana moss put on about 20 lbs since he entered the league, so i'm not assuming jackson can't put on weight... if he could add 10-15 lbs in a few years, he might have similar frame to harrison (but shorter by a 3")...

 

[massraider]

his name escapes me, but SF in super bowl years had a great DT that was exceptional in shot put or discus, & may have set TX (& even national) record (michael ?)...

Carter. Wrecking ball NT.

 

[bcr8f]

'08 - Earl Bennett

Will Franklin. He only has Darling to beat out and has shown a lot so far.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Sidney Rice seems to fit this and the body control is one reason I like him as much as I do.

I do like Bennett for similar reasons, but not quite as much.

 

[FUBAR]

Sidney Rice seems to fit this and the body control is one reason I like him as much as I do.I do like Bennett for similar reasons, but not quite as much.

True, and if we're looking at previous drafts, Santonio Holmes fits as well.

 

[sholditch]

'08 - Earl Bennett

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Sidney Rice seems to fit this and the body control is one reason I like him as much as I do.I do like Bennett for similar reasons, but not quite as much.

True, and if we're looking at previous drafts, Santonio Holmes fits as well.

So does Colston. His body control is off the charts.

 

[sho nuff]

'08 - Earl Bennett

If only he had a QB.

 

[Bob Magaw]

i haven't seen bennett enough to comment here... he did amass impressive numbers (i think breaking conference reception numbers in three seasons), and had good fortune of going to a team in need of WR talent about as much as any other in the league...

sidney rice & santonio holmes were great suggestions & seem to fit the profile...

as far as athleticism, rice was a very good hoops player, & you can see it in his hops & ball skills, how he makes in-flight adjustments, tracks, attacks, high points the ball & finishes.

colston may not fit criteria by speed, but he obviously seems to have everything else, & it just goes to show that it is nearly impossible to single out any criteria that are universally good or bad (though as noted above, desean jackson would be facing a very uphill battle to succeeed at high level unless he puts on some weight)...

there are borderline cases on speed... JERRY rice was supposedly not very fast, but i once talked to somebody who claimed to be a reserve 49er DB who faced him in practice, & asked him if he was not fast why he always seemed to be running away from defenders in the open field... he said he had freakish short area burst & acceleration...

boldin ran a notoriously slow 40 at his combine (4.7?), but he was about a year removed from an ACL injury at florida st., & i thought later he began to run closer to his reported pre-injury 4.4 time... than again, he doesn't look like a 4.4 guy on the field to me... but he is so good at breaking down defenders in the open field with his quickness & moves (he set the FL prep record for career combined yards as a running QB), that it doesn't matter too much... he does seem to be more of an intermediate threat than a deep threat...

as to the point about not being many universals possessed by all the greats, i could use an analogy...

in machine intelligence applications towards font recognition, this was a really difficult problem... there are so many fonts, & when you look widely, it is hard to find universal descriptors to cover how individual letters are shaped, as some don't fit... matches of individual letters are instead made probabalistically, according to percentage of fits by multiple criteria...

this seems to describe something like what goes on during the scouting process...

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Donnie Avery has the potential to be the guy you describe. He's got the "fast" in abundance. The "under control" part was not stressed in Houston's offense, but when he was asked to run routes next to the other best Senior WRs in the Senior Bowl he stood out, along with Bubba Caldwell and Early Doucet - but neither of them have Avery's speed (although Caldwell's straight line speed is impressive for a WR with his bulk). Greg Jennings is exactly the guy he reminded me of in those practices.

 

[Bob Magaw]

avery also flashed impressive RAC skills in his highlights... on one i saw he stopped on a dime and made a nifty open field spin move... i can only hope as an incorrigible rams homer that you are right, bloom! sounds promising...

 

[lod01]

'08 - Earl Bennett

If only he had a QB.

Which is why he doesn't make my list. You also need a QB that can deliver.My top 4 are Royal, Sweed, Caldwell and Simpson in no particular order. i'll get one of them. They all have bigtime stable QB's that can get them the ball.

 

[rzrback77]

Very good discussion. Matt Jones was a very good high school basketball player and also played well in the spring after football at Arkansas. He was very fluid on the court and that is one reason that I thought he would transform from QB to be a successful WR. He has not shown any fluidity in the NFL and seems quite the opposite. He still flashed his athleticism at times, but not with speed in control.

Sure wish that Jacksonville would trade him or cut him so that he could have a chance to start over.

 

[prymetyme25]

This is exactly the reason I dont like Jerome Simpson. He's too wild and doesn't have much control over his body.

 

[lod01]

This is exactly the reason I dont like Jerome Simpson. He's too wild and doesn't have much control over his body.

Yet.

 

[cheatsheetwarroom]

I think history has shown that the best way to predict young WR success is by throwing some chicken bones on an Ouija board and asking the evil spirits. Seriously, two of the biggest WR rookies I can think of over the last 5-6 years are Marques Colston and Anquan Boldin. Seems to me the best strategy when choosing rookie WRs is to avoid drafting them and watching the waiver-wire closely (in re-draft leagues, at least), because you're got a better chance at finding a diamond in the rough than drafting a truly productive, high-ranked rookie prospect.

Rookie WRs generally just do not produce enough to warrant a draft pick in re-draft leagues.

 

[Bob Magaw]

his name escapes me, but SF in super bowl years had a great DT that was exceptional in shot put or discus, & may have set TX (& even national) record (michael ?)...

Carter. Wrecking ball NT.

comments on last few posts...1 - some of the biggest issues jones has are imo completely unconnected to his athleticism (which is off the charts)... he seems to have work ethic issues, & his passion for the game & desire to play have been questioned (these could very well be related)... these are things that don't show up in 40 times & cone drills... scouts make inferences by interviewing coaches, teammates & doing background checks... sometimes you just don't know how much a player wants it until they get to the pros... i'm convinced jones could have been a star if he cared to be... i'm sceptical it will happen at this point in his career... a shame to squander that kind of ability, but if he really doesn't enjoy the game, maybe he should do something else he is passionate about (but an NFL job is a good gig if you can get it )...2 - i actually think simpson has a lot of potential, but that is based on highlights where his overall athleticism were on display, not a deep analysis of his running form & route-running technique... i thought he flashed some sick one-handed catches & there was another spectacular play where he hurdled a player (didn't end well for billy sims)... because he went to coastal carolina, there are some level of competition concerns, & i would expect his technique & route running ability to be raw... i like his potential opportunity, with henry gone (& possibly out of the league for good), lewis has alluded recently to housh maybe being a difficult signing in '09, & who knows whats up with ocho psycho in a year or two? simpson also seems to have a good attitude & the proper mindset to practice & study hard & steadily improve...3 - agreed that special rookie WRs like the boldin's & colston's of the world are exceedingly rare... i tend to play in a lot of dynasty leagues & think in those terms, but i didn't specify dynasty & this thread isn't restricted to it... good point...

 

[Jeff Tefertiller]

Very good discussion. Matt Jones was a very good high school basketball player and also played well in the spring after football at Arkansas. He was very fluid on the court and that is one reason that I thought he would transform from QB to be a successful WR. He has not shown any fluidity in the NFL and seems quite the opposite. He still flashed his athleticism at times, but not with speed in control.Sure wish that Jacksonville would trade him or cut him so that he could have a chance to start over.

Hey Razor,My issue with Matt Jones is that he is fast, but not quick. He is very fast straight ahead, but lacks the quickness in and out of cuts to gain separation. In basketball, he played the same way. For NFL receivers, one thing I try to notice are the guys who gain separation by their quickness. At the pro level, there are plenty of athletic fast WRs and DBs. What separates, imo, some of the best is how quick they are in and out of their cuts. I realize that this is just one factor to being a NFL WR and there are other things at work, but something I noticed about Jones as a rookie and have avoided him in every league, every year since.

 

[rzrback77]

Very good discussion. Matt Jones was a very good high school basketball player and also played well in the spring after football at Arkansas. He was very fluid on the court and that is one reason that I thought he would transform from QB to be a successful WR. He has not shown any fluidity in the NFL and seems quite the opposite. He still flashed his athleticism at times, but not with speed in control.Sure wish that Jacksonville would trade him or cut him so that he could have a chance to start over.

Hey Razor,My issue with Matt Jones is that he is fast, but not quick. He is very fast straight ahead, but lacks the quickness in and out of cuts to gain separation. In basketball, he played the same way. For NFL receivers, one thing I try to notice are the guys who gain separation by their quickness. At the pro level, there are plenty of athletic fast WRs and DBs. What separates, imo, some of the best is how quick they are in and out of their cuts. I realize that this is just one factor to being a NFL WR and there are other things at work, but something I noticed about Jones as a rookie and have avoided him in every league, every year since.

Thanks for the feed-back Jeff. I watched him play bball in person and he seemed really quick, but you are right. He is so very unquick as a WR on his cuts. In retrospect, maybe what seemed to be quickness on the court was him just being savvy and having court awareness.I have played raquetball with a few people who are downright slow, but they know the game, the court and the spin and they ran me ragged.

 

[Mister CIA]

Very good discussion. Matt Jones was a very good high school basketball player and also played well in the spring after football at Arkansas. He was very fluid on the court and that is one reason that I thought he would transform from QB to be a successful WR. He has not shown any fluidity in the NFL and seems quite the opposite. He still flashed his athleticism at times, but not with speed in control.

Sure wish that Jacksonville would trade him or cut him so that he could have a chance to start over.

Hey Razor,My issue with Matt Jones is that he is fast, but not quick. He is very fast straight ahead, but lacks the quickness in and out of cuts to gain separation. In basketball, he played the same way. For NFL receivers, one thing I try to notice are the guys who gain separation by their quickness. At the pro level, there are plenty of athletic fast WRs and DBs. What separates, imo, some of the best is how quick they are in and out of their cuts. I realize that this is just one factor to being a NFL WR and there are other things at work, but something I noticed about Jones as a rookie and have avoided him in every league, every year since.

I recall Torry Holt talking about Matt Jones on draft day, basically saying he did not have the hips to be an NFL WR.

 

[dmac37]

I think history has shown that the best way to predict young WR success is by throwing some chicken bones on an Ouija board and asking the evil spirits. Seriously, two of the biggest WR rookies I can think of over the last 5-6 years are Marques Colston and Anquan Boldin. Seems to me the best strategy when choosing rookie WRs is to avoid drafting them and watching the waiver-wire closely (in re-draft leagues, at least), because you're got a better chance at finding a diamond in the rough than drafting a truly productive, high-ranked rookie prospect.

Rookie WRs generally just do not produce enough to warrant a draft pick in re-draft leagues.

I think Malcolm Kelly has some traits of these two. Bad 40 time, but it does not show on the field during real action. May have the best hands of the group and was considered the top WR coming out until his 40 time and media responses. A top WR that comes across cocky or with character issues does not scare me off, there are a few of them already out there.

For my money I'll take a chance on Kelly from this rookie pool.

 

[Bob Magaw]

I think history has shown that the best way to predict young WR success is by throwing some chicken bones on an Ouija board and asking the evil spirits. Seriously, two of the biggest WR rookies I can think of over the last 5-6 years are Marques Colston and Anquan Boldin. Seems to me the best strategy when choosing rookie WRs is to avoid drafting them and watching the waiver-wire closely (in re-draft leagues, at least), because you're got a better chance at finding a diamond in the rough than drafting a truly productive, high-ranked rookie prospect.

Rookie WRs generally just do not produce enough to warrant a draft pick in re-draft leagues.

I think Malcolm Kelly has some traits of these two. Bad 40 time, but it does not show on the field during real action. May have the best hands of the group and was considered the top WR coming out until his 40 time and media responses. A top WR that comes across cocky or with character issues does not scare me off, there are a few of them already out there.

For my money I'll take a chance on Kelly from this rookie pool.

i like kelly, too...i'd rather have a WR that plays faster than they time, than the converse... agree with the hands, & bloom also pointed out he is an outstanding blocker... i think his antics after the slow times might have hurt his draft stock some, but how much could it have? with his times, he probably wasn't going in the 1st (no WR did), & he did land in the 2nd anyways... he may not have handled the adversity well leading up to the draft, & may have some immaturity issues, but at this point, i'm more concerned with if he works hard and has good football smarts... kelly has a lot going for him other than a lack of blazing speed, but he has good, functional playing speed, & lots of WRs have succeeded like that...

 

[Anthony Borbely]

I think history has shown that the best way to predict young WR success is by throwing some chicken bones on an Ouija board and asking the evil spirits. Seriously, two of the biggest WR rookies I can think of over the last 5-6 years are Marques Colston and Anquan Boldin. Seems to me the best strategy when choosing rookie WRs is to avoid drafting them and watching the waiver-wire closely (in re-draft leagues, at least), because you're got a better chance at finding a diamond in the rough than drafting a truly productive, high-ranked rookie prospect.

Rookie WRs generally just do not produce enough to warrant a draft pick in re-draft leagues.

I think Malcolm Kelly has some traits of these two. Bad 40 time, but it does not show on the field during real action. May have the best hands of the group and was considered the top WR coming out until his 40 time and media responses. A top WR that comes across cocky or with character issues does not scare me off, there are a few of them already out there.

For my money I'll take a chance on Kelly from this rookie pool.

i like kelly, too...i'd rather have a WR that plays faster than they time, than the converse... agree with the hands, & bloom also pointed out he is an outstanding blocker... i think his antics after the slow times might have hurt his draft stock some, but how much could it have? with his times, he probably wasn't going in the 1st (no WR did), & he did land in the 2nd anyways... he may not have handled the adversity well leading up to the draft, & may have some immaturity issues, but at this point, i'm more concerned with if he works hard and has good football smarts... kelly has a lot going for him other than a lack of blazing speed, but he has good, functional playing speed, & lots of WRs have succeeded like that...

I think injury concerns were also a factor in him dropping.

 

[Bob Magaw]

good point, anthony...

not sure if it was mort, but it was reported that a few teams were concerned enough about his knees that they took him off their boards altogether...

OTOH, for those considering drafting or acquiring him in dynasty leagues, the redskins no doubt had their doctors vet him & greenlight the selection medically...