Prediction: Brandon Lloyd will be (remain) a top 10 WR this season (1 Viewer)

[Devil in the Detail]

Lloyd is #2 in the NFL is receiving yards and is the #4 ranked WR in non-ppr standard leagues. He plays in a pass-happy offense with a QB who trusts him and has a defense that gives up points early, so the team will often be playing catchup. He has earned the coaches' trust with his hard work, according to recent news reports. He is explosive, fast, and is making tough catches.

Given the above, I think he's got a good shot to stay in the top 10 from here on out. Yet he is being valued as a top 30-40 WR. Someone to pick up right now in trade if you can.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Prediction: Your prediction is wrong and D. Thomas will slowly eat into his PT more and more as the season goes on.

 

[eaglezzz]

hahahahahahaha this is funny.

Orten is the only guy you want for Fantasy purposes in Denver

 

[Devil in the Detail]

hahahahahahaha this is funny.Orten is the only guy you want for Fantasy purposes in Denver

Why? The offense is putting up historically high passing numbers. Plenty of offenses have supported multiple valuable WRs, including NE's, off which Denver's is based. Lloyd has always been talented and now appears to have the mental side of the game figured out.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

i'm more incline to buy what the OP is selling. Orton and Lloyd have a good rapport from their days in CHI apparently. Great guy to get as a throw in on a trade.

 

[ponchsox]

Top 10 WR in Denver? Put down the pipe.

 

[Devil in the Detail]

Top 10 WR in Denver? Put down the pipe.

Denver has the #1 passing offense in the NFL so far. Please explain why a top 10 WR is impossible there. They had one the last few years there, if memory serves.

 

[Devil in the Detail]

To the Lloyd doubters, has a WR ever, through the first three games of the season, had over 300 receiving yards and two separate 100+ yard games and then not finished in the top 10?

 

[Frank Black]

brandon lloyd always sucked and he always will regardless of any past repore with his quarterback or any other circumstances.

Signed,

Mark Clayton

 

[eaglezzz]

i'm more incline to buy what the OP is selling. Orton and Lloyd have a good rapport from their days in CHI apparently. Great guy to get as a throw in on a trade.

Yeah I will be the guy throwing him in trades

 

[PhantomJB]

Dude, um, I think you need to temper your enthusiasm just a tad...

It is true that many people are disrespecting Brandon Lloyd in the same way many of them dissed Orton in the preseason. However, much of the success both Denver and Orton have had is due to a quick-strike passing game using deception and multiple weapons, many of which are near-clones of each other.

Look at game 2. Orton threw 35 times and only targeted Lloyd 4 times. That ain't happening with a clear Top 10 WR like Moss, Marshall, Austin, etc.

Denver is also passing more than they otherwise would due to RB issues.

Lloyd is probably in the midst of a career season. Could even post 1,000-1,100 yds. But he will most likely be inconsistent game-to-game and low on TD's if the first three games are any indication.

If you believe differently, some insight and analysis behind your bold prediction would be nice.

 

[da_budman]

Top 10 WR in Denver? Put down the pipe.

Denver has the #1 passing offense in the NFL so far. Please explain why a top 10 WR is impossible there. They had one the last few years there, if memory serves.

And he is no longer with the team. Last year they had Brandon Marshall and? That is right pretty much nobody else caught passes there. .This year they no longer have Marshall and Denver is spreading the ball around to Gafney, Royal, LLoyd, and now Thomas. Too many weapons and none of them talented enough to demand top 10 numbers (this year anyway....Thomas may get there but not this year).

 

[THE SNOWMAN]

Who's your dealer? .. cause he's been giving you some good ####.

 

[5Rings]

I'm having a hard time mentally separating this Lloyd from the weak little guy who would make a circus catch, but drop two slants and was scared of contact that we had in SF...but its hard to ignore his numbers so far. OP might be right.

I just saw him traded for a 1st rd pick in a dynasty league.

 

[NatronIsMean]

i'm more incline to buy what the OP is selling. Orton and Lloyd have a good rapport from their days in CHI apparently. Great guy to get as a throw in on a trade.

As a Bears fan, this does go back to Chicago when Orton was behind Grossman and throwing to Lloyd in practice often. When Orton finally got on the field he made Lloyd look good and they looked like a promising combo. When Orton left, Lloyd disappeared as well. Good to see that connection resurrected. I hope that it works out - I like both guys.

 

[Devil in the Detail]

Dude, um, I think you need to temper your enthusiasm just a tad...It is true that many people are disrespecting Brandon Lloyd in the same way many of them dissed Orton in the preseason. However, much of the success both Denver and Orton have had is due to a quick-strike passing game using deception and multiple weapons, many of which are near-clones of each other.Look at game 2. Orton threw 35 times and only targeted Lloyd 4 times. That ain't happening with a clear Top 10 WR like Moss, Marshall, Austin, etc.Denver is also passing more than they otherwise would due to RB issues.Lloyd is probably in the midst of a career season. Could even post 1,000-1,100 yds. But he will most likely be inconsistent game-to-game and low on TD's if the first three games are any indication.If you believe differently, some insight and analysis behind your bold prediction would be nice.

Well, for starters, in Week 3, Romo threw 30 times and only targeted your "clear Top 10 WR" Austin 3 times. That's a lower target per attempt rate than Lloyd's worst game, game 2.Denver's RB issues are likely to be ongoing given the frequency of Moreno's injuries and the other talent on the roster. How is Lloyd inconsistent, really? 2 out of 3 games have been 5 rec., 100+ yard games and the other game he still put up 53 yards (Marshall also only had 53 yards during game 1, Moss had 59 in game 3, and Austin had 20 yards in game 3). He hasn't put up more than 1 TD yet, but receiving yards per game is the best predictor of future TDs for wide receivers, historically. And he is #2 in the NFL in receiving yards.Again, if any receiver has ever put up 300+ receiving yards, including two separate 100+ yard games, through 3 weeks and has not finished in the top 10, I'd be very curious to know about it.

 

[ponchsox]

I think Finley has a bigger shot at 15 TDs then Lloyd does at becoming a top 10 WR.

 

[cubbie5150]

Why not? Someone unexpected will wind up in the top 10, could be Loyd as much as anyone else....

 

[SSOG]

To the Lloyd doubters, has a WR ever, through the first three games of the season, had over 300 receiving yards and two separate 100+ yard games and then not finished in the top 10?

Since 2002, the following WRs have had 300 yards through 3 games and have failed to finish the season among the top 10.Andre Johnson 2006- 21/309/1 through 3 games, WR18 on the season

Brandon Marshall 2008- 24/321/2 through 3 games, WR11 on the season

Darrell Jackson 2005- 22/321/1 through 3 games, unranked on the season (missed 10 games to injury)

Laveranues Coles 2006- 24/331/1 through 3 games, WR16 on the season

Terry Glenn 2005- 14/336/1 through 3 games, WR12 on the season

Roy Williams 2007- 20/337/3 through 3 games, WR33 on the season (missed 4 games to injury)

Marty Booker 2002- 21/343/2 through 3 games, WR12 on the season

Hines Ward 2004- 22/346/2 through 3 games, WR28 on the season

Isaac Bruce 2004- 25/348/1 through 3 games, WR12 on the season

Laveranues Coles 2003- 23/393/1 through 3 games, WR13 on the season

Now, you might say that a WR12 or WR13 finish is close enough, but you have to remember that part of the reason WRs with 300 yards through 3 weeks tend to finish so high is because they have a massive, massive head start. For instance, in 2003, Laveranues Coles was WR2 from weeks 1-3 and WR17 from weeks 4-17. In 2002, Marty Booker was WR21 from weeks 4-17. In 2007, Roy Williams was 37th from weeks 4-13 (he was injured and missed 14, 15, 16, and 17). In 2004, Hines Ward was WR38 from weeks 4-17. In 2004, Isaac Bruce was WR21 from weeks 4-17. In 2006, Andre Johnson was WR23 from weeks 4-17. Lots of examples of WRs who put up 300 yards through 3 weeks and then were not a top-20 WR from weeks 4-17.

 

[ponchsox]

The real question is, how does Lloyd produce the rest of the season? Many people picked him up after two big games. You are counting on his success to continue. With Demaryious Thomas getting more looks, I don't think he will maintain top 10 numbers. Top 20 is a possibility.

 

[Devil in the Detail]

To the Lloyd doubters, has a WR ever, through the first three games of the season, had over 300 receiving yards and two separate 100+ yard games and then not finished in the top 10?

Since 2002, the following WRs have had 300 yards through 3 games and have failed to finish the season among the top 10.Andre Johnson 2006- 21/309/1 through 3 games, WR18 on the season

Brandon Marshall 2008- 24/321/2 through 3 games, WR11 on the season

Darrell Jackson 2005- 22/321/1 through 3 games, unranked on the season (missed 10 games to injury)

Laveranues Coles 2006- 24/331/1 through 3 games, WR16 on the season

Terry Glenn 2005- 14/336/1 through 3 games, WR12 on the season

Roy Williams 2007- 20/337/3 through 3 games, WR33 on the season (missed 4 games to injury)

Marty Booker 2002- 21/343/2 through 3 games, WR12 on the season

Hines Ward 2004- 22/346/2 through 3 games, WR28 on the season

Isaac Bruce 2004- 25/348/1 through 3 games, WR12 on the season

Laveranues Coles 2003- 23/393/1 through 3 games, WR13 on the season

Now, you might say that a WR12 or WR13 finish is close enough, but you have to remember that part of the reason WRs with 300 yards through 3 weeks tend to finish so high is because they have a massive, massive head start. For instance, in 2003, Laveranues Coles was WR2 from weeks 1-3 and WR17 from weeks 4-17. In 2002, Marty Booker was WR21 from weeks 4-17. In 2007, Roy Williams was 37th from weeks 4-13 (he was injured and missed 14, 15, 16, and 17). In 2004, Hines Ward was WR38 from weeks 4-17. In 2004, Isaac Bruce was WR21 from weeks 4-17. In 2006, Andre Johnson was WR23 from weeks 4-17. Lots of examples of WRs who put up 300 yards through 3 weeks and then were not a top-20 WR from weeks 4-17.

Thank you for the data. Not to get greedy, but I'm wondering, once you remove the injured Williams and Jackson, how many of the rest had two separate 100-yd games in the first three (rather than, say, one crazy 180 yard game and then two 75-yard games)? For some reason, hitting the 100-yd game threshold twice in the first three games would seem to be a strong predictor of more regular big games in the future (rather than just having one huge game in the first three and two decent games).

 

[Devil in the Detail]

To the Lloyd doubters, has a WR ever, through the first three games of the season, had over 300 receiving yards and two separate 100+ yard games and then not finished in the top 10?

Since 2002, the following WRs have had 300 yards through 3 games and have failed to finish the season among the top 10.Andre Johnson 2006- 21/309/1 through 3 games, WR18 on the season

Brandon Marshall 2008- 24/321/2 through 3 games, WR11 on the season

Darrell Jackson 2005- 22/321/1 through 3 games, unranked on the season (missed 10 games to injury)

Laveranues Coles 2006- 24/331/1 through 3 games, WR16 on the season

Terry Glenn 2005- 14/336/1 through 3 games, WR12 on the season

Roy Williams 2007- 20/337/3 through 3 games, WR33 on the season (missed 4 games to injury)

Marty Booker 2002- 21/343/2 through 3 games, WR12 on the season

Hines Ward 2004- 22/346/2 through 3 games, WR28 on the season

Isaac Bruce 2004- 25/348/1 through 3 games, WR12 on the season

Laveranues Coles 2003- 23/393/1 through 3 games, WR13 on the season

Now, you might say that a WR12 or WR13 finish is close enough, but you have to remember that part of the reason WRs with 300 yards through 3 weeks tend to finish so high is because they have a massive, massive head start. For instance, in 2003, Laveranues Coles was WR2 from weeks 1-3 and WR17 from weeks 4-17. In 2002, Marty Booker was WR21 from weeks 4-17. In 2007, Roy Williams was 37th from weeks 4-13 (he was injured and missed 14, 15, 16, and 17). In 2004, Hines Ward was WR38 from weeks 4-17. In 2004, Isaac Bruce was WR21 from weeks 4-17. In 2006, Andre Johnson was WR23 from weeks 4-17. Lots of examples of WRs who put up 300 yards through 3 weeks and then were not a top-20 WR from weeks 4-17.

Thank you for the data. Not to get greedy, but I'm wondering, once you remove the injured Williams and Jackson, how many of the rest had two separate 100-yd games in the first three (rather than, say, one crazy 180 yard game and then two 75-yard games)? For some reason, hitting the 100-yd game threshold twice in the first three games would seem to be a strong predictor of more regular big games in the future (rather than just having one huge game in the first three and two decent games).

It would also be good to know how many WRs did do this through 3 games and then went on to finish in the top 10.

 

[Football Jones]

To the Lloyd doubters, has a WR ever, through the first three games of the season, had over 300 receiving yards and two separate 100+ yard games and then not finished in the top 10?

Since 2002, the following WRs have had 300 yards through 3 games and have failed to finish the season among the top 10.Andre Johnson 2006- 21/309/1 through 3 games, WR18 on the season

Brandon Marshall 2008- 24/321/2 through 3 games, WR11 on the season

Darrell Jackson 2005- 22/321/1 through 3 games, unranked on the season (missed 10 games to injury)

Laveranues Coles 2006- 24/331/1 through 3 games, WR16 on the season

Terry Glenn 2005- 14/336/1 through 3 games, WR12 on the season

Roy Williams 2007- 20/337/3 through 3 games, WR33 on the season (missed 4 games to injury)

Marty Booker 2002- 21/343/2 through 3 games, WR12 on the season

Hines Ward 2004- 22/346/2 through 3 games, WR28 on the season

Isaac Bruce 2004- 25/348/1 through 3 games, WR12 on the season

Laveranues Coles 2003- 23/393/1 through 3 games, WR13 on the season

Now, you might say that a WR12 or WR13 finish is close enough, but you have to remember that part of the reason WRs with 300 yards through 3 weeks tend to finish so high is because they have a massive, massive head start. For instance, in 2003, Laveranues Coles was WR2 from weeks 1-3 and WR17 from weeks 4-17. In 2002, Marty Booker was WR21 from weeks 4-17. In 2007, Roy Williams was 37th from weeks 4-13 (he was injured and missed 14, 15, 16, and 17). In 2004, Hines Ward was WR38 from weeks 4-17. In 2004, Isaac Bruce was WR21 from weeks 4-17. In 2006, Andre Johnson was WR23 from weeks 4-17. Lots of examples of WRs who put up 300 yards through 3 weeks and then were not a top-20 WR from weeks 4-17.

Thank you for the data. Not to get greedy, but I'm wondering, once you remove the injured Williams and Jackson, how many of the rest had two separate 100-yd games in the first three (rather than, say, one crazy 180 yard game and then two 75-yard games)? For some reason, hitting the 100-yd game threshold twice in the first three games would seem to be a strong predictor of more regular big games in the future (rather than just having one huge game in the first three and two decent games).

It would also be good to know how many WRs did do this through 3 games and then went on to finish in the top 10.

For what it's worth, Greg Cosell (Google him if you don't know who he is) thinks Lloyd will be their top WR, as well (with Gaffney the 2nd option & Royal the 3rd). I don't necessarily agree, but just throwing it out there.

 

[David Yudkin]

Orton threw the ball 57 times this week. If people think he will continue to heave it up that often, then yes, Lloyd has a decent shot at remaining in the Top 10.

 

[PhantomJB]

Dude, um, I think you need to temper your enthusiasm just a tad...Lloyd is probably in the midst of a career season. Could even post 1,000-1,100 yds. But he will most likely be inconsistent game-to-game and low on TD's if the first three games are any indication.

How is Lloyd inconsistent, really? 2 out of 3 games have been 5 rec., 100+ yard games and the other game he still put up 53 yards (Marshall also only had 53 yards during game 1, Moss had 59 in game 3, and Austin had 20 yards in game 3).

Don't get me wrong. I'm probably much more bullish than the average bear and picked him up myself last week on the WW.But I think the perception of inconsistency and general skepticism comes from the fact that this is his 7th year in the league and he has never before put up a 1,000 yd season.His best year was 2005. In that year, two of his first four games were for over 100 yds then he got injured IIRC. Game 2 for him that year was 2/17. When he came back and played regularly, he put up 3-4 games under 50 yds, then another >100 yd game, then back to <50 for the rest of the year.Can he overcome a historical pattern? Has the journeyman finally found the right combination of system and quarterback and opportunity?Maybe. But until he strings together at least a few more 70-100 yd outings back-to-back, I'll take the under on the Top 10 finish all day long.

 

[Choke]

Andre Johnson 2006- 21/309/1 through 3 games, WR18 on the season

Brandon Marshall 2008- 24/321/2 through 3 games, WR11 on the season

Darrell Jackson 2005- 22/321/1 through 3 games, unranked on the season (missed 10 games to injury)

Laveranues Coles 2006- 24/331/1 through 3 games, WR16 on the season

Terry Glenn 2005- 14/336/1 through 3 games, WR12 on the season

Roy Williams 2007- 20/337/3 through 3 games, WR33 on the season (missed 4 games to injury)

Marty Booker 2002- 21/343/2 through 3 games, WR12 on the season

Hines Ward 2004- 22/346/2 through 3 games, WR28 on the season

Isaac Bruce 2004- 25/348/1 through 3 games, WR12 on the season

Laveranues Coles 2003- 23/393/1 through 3 games, WR13 on the season

how many of the rest had two separate 100-yd games in the first three

AJ - had 2 100 yards games in first 3. And 3 in first 4. Faded at end of season. (did this a couple times to fantasy teams early in his career)BM - had 2 100 yards games in first 3.

DJ - had 2

LC - had 2

TG - had 2

RW - had 2, one game was 200 yards.

MB - had 1. But had a 97 yard performance and his 1 was 198.

HW - had 1. But had 99 and 96 yards performances, so almost had 3.

IB - had 3

LC - had 3

A: Pretty much all of them.

 

[SSOG]

Thank you for the data. Not to get greedy, but I'm wondering, once you remove the injured Williams and Jackson, how many of the rest had two separate 100-yd games in the first three (rather than, say, one crazy 180 yard game and then two 75-yard games)? For some reason, hitting the 100-yd game threshold twice in the first three games would seem to be a strong predictor of more regular big games in the future (rather than just having one huge game in the first three and two decent games).

It would also be good to know how many WRs did do this through 3 games and then went on to finish in the top 10.

Go ahead and get greedy. I'm usually up for a round of rooting through data to spot historical trends.32 WRs have had 300 receiving yards through 3 games from 2002 to 2009. Of those 32, at least 12 failed to finish among the top10 fantasy WRs at the end of the year. In addition to the 10 I already listed, I also missed Kevin Curtis 2007, who finished as WR17, and Chris Chambers 2007, who finished as WR29. Now, two of those players missed significant time to injury, although I wouldn't play the injury excuse in Roy Williams case- he was *BRUTAL* from weeks 4-13 and had little chance of making the top 10 even if he stayed healthy. Still, discarding those two players, we've had 30 instances of a WR posting 300 receiving yards through 3 weeks from 2002-2009, and in 10 of those instances (33%), the WR failed to finish the season among the top 10 fantasy WRs.A huge problem with that list is that most guys who have 300 yards through 3 games are not at all comparable to Brandon Lloyd. Of the 32 instances of a 300-through-3 in the last 8 years, most of them belong to guys named Moss, Harrison, Owens, Ochocinco, Smiff, Holt, Wayne, Bruce, Ward, Marshall, etc. Guys who were *SUPPOSED* to be awesome. Of the 32 instances, only 2 came from a WR who had never finished among the top 24 fantasy WRs in his career- you had Anquan Boldin 2003 (and the only reason he had no career top-24 finishes was because he was a rookie) and Kevin Curtis 2007 (who finished the season as WR17).To answer your other question... of the 12 300-through-3 players who failed to finish in the top 10, 9 of them had a pair of 100 yard games. The three who didn't were Kevin Curtis 2007, Marty Booker 2002, and Hines Ward 2004. I feel it's important to point out, though, that Hines Ward's first three games were 151 yards, 99 yards, and 96 yards, while Booker's were 198 yards, 48 yards, and 97 yards... so while neither met the letter of the "two 100 yard games" requirement, I'd venture that they both met the spirit of it.Long story short, after digging through the data, there's absolutely nothing that suggests that having 300 receiving yards through 3 games makes a player a lock to finish among the top 10 fantasy WRs. Especially a WR like Brandon Lloyd who was so lightly regarded before the season starts.All data aside, as a Denver fan, I have to say that the team looks like it's going to be using a "WR1 by Committee" approach going forward. Brandon Lloyd has been "the guy" in two of the last three games, which is great for Lloyd... but I think that Gaffney and Thomas are both going to eat into his targets and prevent him from clearly distancing himself from the rest of the WRs in Denver. Just my thoughts on the subject.

 

[jbz]

I think it's not out of the question. We've seen similar things happen before. The only thing I don't like about Lloyd's success now is that it seems far too dependent on the deep ball. I'm not a numbers cruncher but I wonder what rate Orton-Lloyd are hitting on and if it's remotely possible to sustain throughout the season.

 

[David Yudkin]

I think another interesting exercise would be to find out how many WR that didn't have 750 receiving yards in any of their first 7 seasons went over 1,000 yards in their 8th. I don't have the time or the desire to look into that, but I'm guessing the number of guys on that list will fit on a few fingers.

 

[Assani Fisher]

Top 10 WR in Denver? Put down the pipe.

Denver...-Had a top 10 WR in 2009-Had a top 10 WR in 2008-Currently has a top 10 WR in 2010-Is the current #1 passing offense in the NFL

 

[todisco1]

This actually turned into a good thread. Some great info in here.

My personal belief is that it's going to be very difficult to pinpoint which Denver WRs are productive on a weekly basis. They have so many that are capable. Lloyd/Gaffney/Thomas/Royal... I actually think Royal might be the guy to have in ppr as he's playing the slot a lot and seems to be getting a decent number of looks, and Thomas probably won't be much of a threat to his touches as he could be to Lloyd and Gaffney.

 

[PhantomJB]

SSOG, those are some phenomenal posts.

 

[SSOG]

I think it's not out of the question. We've seen similar things happen before. The only thing I don't like about Lloyd's success now is that it seems far too dependent on the deep ball. I'm not a numbers cruncher but I wonder what rate Orton-Lloyd are hitting on and if it's remotely possible to sustain throughout the season.

14 receptions on 22 targets = 64% = high, but theoretically sustainable.24.2 yards per reception = theoretically possible, but Lloyd would become only the second WR in the last 20 years to top 24 ypr (the first = Devery Henderson 2008, 32/793/3 receiving)15.4 yards per target = not even theoretically sustainable. This is about 50% higher than the highest season-ending YPT total I've ever seen.

 

[SSOG]

I think another interesting exercise would be to find out how many WR that didn't have 750 receiving yards in any of their first 7 seasons went over 1,000 yards in their 8th. I don't have the time or the desire to look into that, but I'm guessing the number of guys on that list will fit on a few fingers.

Going back to 1960, I can only find one: Willie Jackson. Quinn Early came close, with under 750 yards in his first 6 seasons, then 890 in year 7 and 1000+ in year 8.

 

[The Jacket]

Top 10 WR in Denver? Put down the pipe.

Denver...-Had a top 10 WR in 2009-Had a top 10 WR in 2008-Currently has a top 10 WR in 2010-Is the current #1 passing offense in the NFL

The 09 and 08 WR mirrored real life. Brandon Lloyd? He'll slow down real quick. Some 800-900 yards, maybe 7 TDs.

 

[todisco1]

I think another interesting exercise would be to find out how many WR that didn't have 750 receiving yards in any of their first 7 seasons went over 1,000 yards in their 8th. I don't have the time or the desire to look into that, but I'm guessing the number of guys on that list will fit on a few fingers.

Going back to 1960, I can only find one: Willie Jackson. Quinn Early came close, with under 750 yards in his first 6 seasons, then 890 in year 7 and 1000+ in year 8.

Didn't Bobby Engram do it in like his 11th or 12th season? I know he had a couple of 900+ yd seasons with Chicago but never cracked 1k until he went to Seattle late in his career.

 

[SSOG]

I think another interesting exercise would be to find out how many WR that didn't have 750 receiving yards in any of their first 7 seasons went over 1,000 yards in their 8th. I don't have the time or the desire to look into that, but I'm guessing the number of guys on that list will fit on a few fingers.

Going back to 1960, I can only find one: Willie Jackson. Quinn Early came close, with under 750 yards in his first 6 seasons, then 890 in year 7 and 1000+ in year 8.

Didn't Bobby Engram do it in like his 11th or 12th season? I know he had a couple of 900+ yd seasons with Chicago but never cracked 1k until he went to Seattle late in his career.

Engram didn't top 1,000 receiving yards until his 12th season in the league, although that's mostly semantics because he had 987 receiving yards in year 3 and 947 receiving yards in year 4.

 

[Please See Mine]

I think another interesting exercise would be to find out how many WR that didn't have 750 receiving yards in any of their first 7 seasons went over 1,000 yards in their 8th. I don't have the time or the desire to look into that, but I'm guessing the number of guys on that list will fit on a few fingers.

Going back to 1960, I can only find one: Willie Jackson. Quinn Early came close, with under 750 yards in his first 6 seasons, then 890 in year 7 and 1000+ in year 8.

also Ed McCaffrey and Charlie Joiner.

 

[gpthatsme]

SSOG, those are some phenomenal posts.

Agreed. SSOG is probably my favoritetist poster here....

 

[Firekaps]

This actually turned into a good thread. Some great info in here.

Agree. I was going to post that. Also, I have been a BL follower from his Illinois days. There has never been any question about his talent. He has been hurt, but more often, he has been a jag. He has never been around somewhere long enough to have over 750 yards or a string of consistent games because he gets hurt or is a jag.

So, perhaps, if the reports are true that he is working hard and paying attention and training and not being a jag, then he can be one of the few receivers to "break out" as a veteran. He certainly has the talent and opportunity. Also, it's not like Gaffney, Thomas or Royal are far superior. So it could happen.

 

[Warrior]

Please stop comparing Brandon Marshall to Brandon Lloyd...you're embarrassing yourself

 

[SSOG]

I think another interesting exercise would be to find out how many WR that didn't have 750 receiving yards in any of their first 7 seasons went over 1,000 yards in their 8th. I don't have the time or the desire to look into that, but I'm guessing the number of guys on that list will fit on a few fingers.

Going back to 1960, I can only find one: Willie Jackson. Quinn Early came close, with under 750 yards in his first 6 seasons, then 890 in year 7 and 1000+ in year 8.

also Ed McCaffrey and Charlie Joiner.

Good catch on both.At the end of the day, though, Brandon Lloyd isn't Ed McCaffrey, he isn't Charlie Joiner, and he isn't Willie Jackson. He also isn't Randy Moss, Chad Ochocinco, or Kevin Curtis. While all of those guys can give us a unique insight into several possible ways for a career or a season to unfold, ultimately Brandon Lloyd's production hinges on nothing other than Brandon Lloyd himself. History shows that it's possible for a journeyman like Lloyd to finally strike it big, and that it's possible for a hot starter like Lloyd to turn ice cold, but just because it's possible doesn't mean it's going to happen. Lloyd has to be evaluated on his own individual merits.

Personally, I think he looks good, but Denver this year reminds me a lot of New Orleans. Sometimes Lance Moore finishes in the top 24. Sometimes Robert Meachem does. Sometimes neither of them. Sometimes Colston has a big game and other times he's ignored in favor of everyone else. Through it all, there's always Devery Henderson lurking around stealing targets. I certainly wouldn't bank on top 10 production from here on out for Lloyd, but top 20 or top 30 certainly isn't out of the question.

 

[Couch Potato]

SSOG, those are some phenomenal posts.

Agreed. SSOG is probably my favoritetist poster here....

One of the favs of most who have read a lot of his stuff, including me.All this talk of top 10 for Lloyd and something interesting happened in one of my leagues an hour ago. He got cut.So I grabbed him. Why not.

 

[BustedKnuckles]

SSOG, those are some phenomenal posts.

Agreed. SSOG is probably my favoritetist poster here....

One of the favs of most who have read a lot of his stuff, including me.All this talk of top 10 for Lloyd and something interesting happened in one of my leagues an hour ago. He got cut.So I grabbed him. Why not.

yup...me to...grabbed him last week and playing him this week while hes hot...if or when he cools off i`ll dump him for the flavor of the week

 

[Matt Waldman]

I can get with the idea that Brandon Lloyd isn't "the" receiver to have in Denver, but he is "a" receiver to have in Denver. While very true that Lloyd is not a between the hashes/under the safety threat, his skills as a perimeter player, one-on-one with a DB are very strong. His ability to adjust to a football is as strong as any player I have ever seen in the game. Compare his adjustments to passes to any other great player and they belong in the same category.

I think he will remain a viable fantasy starter all season and to the poster that mentioned Greg Cosell likes him - that's enough for me. I respect Cosell tremendously because he's been studying game film for 29 years as a producer for NFL Films. He knows his stuff.

True, Lloyd is a limited receiver. So is Randy Moss, but he's so good in certain aspects of his game that it compensates for what he doesn't do well. Lloyd is a very poor man's Randy Moss in that sense. Where Moss is great at adjusting to the ball, getting deep, and running after the catch, Lloyd is great at adjusting to the ball, good at getting deep, and ok at running after the catch. Still, that's enough for him to remain successful in an offense that spreads the field and makes it difficult for teams to bracket one particular player consistently.

I would be surprised if Lloyd remains a top 12 receiver, but I think he has a decent shot at remaining a top 15-20 guy. What's interesting to me is that I've seen people argue against Lloyd for being a journeyman all these years, but in the same breath tout Gaffney...Lloyd has flashed far more than Gaffney early in his career.

I think SSOG's stats are great and there are some great posts going on here. I just want to add that beyond the stats and histories you sometimes have to look at context. Brandon Lloyd was a promising player that undid his potential early because he wasn't serious enough about the game. He's good enough to have a QB and coach in his corner all preseason before he even produced on this level. Head coaches don't tell the media that they think a player has special talent unless they expect a ton from them. Granted, I don't agree with all of McDaniels' choices in the past, but he wasn't the only coach that coveted Lloyd. Joe Gibbs and company in Washington expected him to be a nice free agent acquisition from SF, but he hadn't matured enough yet.

At this point, it appears Lloyd has matured, has rapport with his QB, is healthy, and making plays that are true testaments to skill and not just right place-right time kind of plays (DB fell down, Broncos tricked the defense with plays that will get sniffed out in coming weeks, etc.).

 

[jbz]

I think it's not out of the question. We've seen similar things happen before. The only thing I don't like about Lloyd's success now is that it seems far too dependent on the deep ball. I'm not a numbers cruncher but I wonder what rate Orton-Lloyd are hitting on and if it's remotely possible to sustain throughout the season.

14 receptions on 22 targets = 64% = high, but theoretically sustainable.24.2 yards per reception = theoretically possible, but Lloyd would become only the second WR in the last 20 years to top 24 ypr (the first = Devery Henderson 2008, 32/793/3 receiving)15.4 yards per target = not even theoretically sustainable. This is about 50% higher than the highest season-ending YPT total I've ever seen.

Nice work! So it looks like there will be some correction coming, if not very soon. Lloyd would possibly be able to make up for it by getting more short/mid-range and red zone targets, but those areas look to be covered by other WRs. Looks like Lloyd is the designated deep threat and history says he won't be able to keep up this pace.

 

[SSOG]

Nice work! So it looks like there will be some correction coming, if not very soon. Lloyd would possibly be able to make up for it by getting more short/mid-range and red zone targets, but those areas look to be covered by other WRs. Looks like Lloyd is the designated deep threat and history says he won't be able to keep up this pace.

Yeah, Lloyd has been almost exclusively working the deep sidelines. He's been very, very productive in that role so far, but the fact remains that it's a pretty limited role. Denver's not really using him as an all-over-the-field kind of guy. At least, they haven't been through 3 games.

 

[nysportsfan]

I really think Gaffney is the play in PPR, but I'm probably wrong on that as well.

 

[CaptainHook]

D thomas is the only guy to own. the rest are just going to be cyclical.

 

[SSOG]

D thomas is the only guy to own. the rest are just going to be cyclical.

Thomas is the guy to own in the long term, but in redraft he'll be as cyclical as all the others. Like Lloyd, he has a pretty limited role in the offense. As of right now, all he really does are screens and gos. He's still learning the offense, he's still learning the finer points of route running (because he played in a triple-option offense in college), and McDaniels has definitely limited the amount of material he's been exposed to.Personally, I think the only guy on the roster who won't be cyclical is Eddie Royal. I think Gaffney, Lloyd, and Thomas will keep trading off who has the biggest game of the week for the Broncos, while Eddie Royal consistently churns out reasonably productive but not explosive stat lines. Lots of 4, 5, 6 catch days for 40-70 yards with very few 100 yard games in the mix.