Preseason fact of the year so far (1 Viewer)

[kutta]

I heard this on a fbg podcast last night from I think Sigmund Bloom.

"Despite the disastrous season that CJ had last year, he still finished right around a top 10 RB in most ppr leagues."

I double checked his facts in my league and he was right. CJ finished #11 in my .5 ppr league. I'd imagine he would be higher if it were a full point ppr.

Either way, the perception out there was that CJ was an utter disaster last year. Of course, based on where most drafted him they perceive it to be a disaster and I get that. However, when you check the facts, he wasnt.

That goes to show that barring injury, CJ's floor is essentially top 10 RB in ppr leagues. And that was after he came in after a holdout, out of shape, with a new offense to learn.

That's a pretty short-sighted way of looking at it.Another Fact of last season is that he had 8 (HALF) games where he scored 9 points or less and that is NOT what you want from guy you probaby picked 7-12 overall.

Another fact is that if you looked at his PPG and eliminate some of the feast or famine nature of his output, he ranked #19 among RBs. Again, not what you want from a 1st round pick.

that's why people say he was a disaster. he's a butterface that wrecked teams when they saw what he was upclose.

I'd like to use this opportunity to suggest an automatic month-long ban anytime any poster says you should remove outlier stats from analysis. To me, this is the #1 mortal sin of any statistical analysis, especially football.

It was addressed in another post, but I just want to clarify that he is not saying to eliminate games. He is saying by looking at PPG you are better able to eliminate some of the variance, and in PPG Chris Johnson was #19 last year.

 

[12punch]

In week 14 he had 11 carries for 23 yards.

The guy was in such poor shape he couldn't run 24 yards by week 14?

 

[Ace08]

Not a fan of CJ2k at all this year. And mind you this is coming from someone who DIDN'T draft him last year.

I've seen this movie before...it's about the guy who gets paid and stops running hungry. I don't like RB's who lack an appetite.

He's also piled on a quite a few carries over the last 3 years.....I for one will be drafting Ringer in the last round of all my drafts this year.

 

[Rick James]

CJ2K was awful last year, but I think he'll bounce back. He looked impressive in what little I've seen in the preseason. Was thinking about drafting him at 1.07 in a PPR league, but he went 1.06. I don't think you'll be able to draft him at the end of the first round for much longer.

 

[Banger]

He was awful last year but that has no bearing on whether or not I would draft him this year. Last year was last year and this year is this year. Things change each year, guys get healthy, guys get hurt, scheme changes, QB changes, etc.

 

[Chase Stuart]

CJ2K was about as good as Mark Sanchez last year, and had the same fantasy rank.

 

[DeaLerZ]

You won't find a bigger CJ2K proponent than me. I have him entrenched as my the #4 RB on my board and anticipate he will be my top RB target in my auction.

That said he was AWFUL last year. Unlike most of Chad Johnson's prime years when his inconsistency was overstated and not based on facts, the inconsistent label on CJ last year was well earned.

Actually, he was consistent. Consistently bad.

He gained 55% of his rushing yardage in 25% of his starts.

Other than his 4 big games, he averaged 39 yards PER GAME

So in 75% of his starts he basically gave you horrid production.

He only scored 4 TDs all year.

He was so bad in 6 of the first 8 games of the year that many people had them on their bench when he finally did have a small stretch of production.

Then he gave owners NOTHING down the stretch and in the FF playoffs.

The fact that he finished top 10 is mostly a testament to how weak a year it was for RBs and he was able to have decent receiving numbers. People say numbers don't lie. Without looking at them in context, numbers lie all of the time.

So let's not act like he was anything but THE SUCK last year. Because he was.

But that was last year with the holdout. This year is a new year and again, I'm high on him.

well said.... the thing that many are forgetting about Chris Johnson though is the type of running back this guy is.. he is a hit or miss type RB for fantasy football week in and week out... that is because this guy is the type of running back that breaks off for a 40 yd run and scores a td... the more he does that in the season the better his overall numbers look... i mean everyone should take the time to look at the type of production he gives owners week-to-week even in his good years... now the 2000 yd season was an extreme, and so was last season.... he will fall somewhere in the 1300-1500 rush yd range, with another 300-500 receiving yds.. so somewhere between 1600-2000 total yards... but like others have said total numbers don't tell the whole story... he is the type of player that has a huge game.. followed by a dud... huge game followed by a dud.... with about 6 games that he scores less than 10 fantasy points for you... about 6 games where he scores close to 30... and about 4 of an average running back... that is just the type of player you are getting with Chris Johnson because he gets most of his yards when he breaks off for a long run... but that is WHAT MAKES HIM GOOD!! in the NFL... and inconsistent in Fantasy football...

I would only draft him as the number #4 rb off the board personally if I was in a keeper league and I had 3 other consistent players who could give me a relatively similar amount of points every week.. he is the type of player you put on your roster when you have built a team that is consistently good enough that you can afford those duds... but will reap the rewards when he goes off for 250 yds and 3 tds....

If I were to draft CJ2K as my first pick, i sure as hell would be building a very consistent team behind him... and the way to do that is by "Value based drafting"... and loading up on the 6th to 10th rd rb's to give you added depth, and the potential to have one of those guys break out.... those are the rounds that i believe make your draft... otherwise you are going to be fishing on the waiver wire all season long.. like i had to do last year when i was wrong about half of my team

Im just curious why people are so quick to throw a guy under the bus for having a year of bad PPG.

But jump all over any RB coming off injury that blew up right before he literally blew up.

The most backwards logic in fantasy football.

this is because people have this image in their heads "if he had been healthy last year he would have been awesome!"... while with "CJ2K" they think "he sucked last year and he was healthy"...and a lot of people were burned by him.. so they don't want to mess with him again.. but the truth of the matter is last year... was simply that.. LAST YEAR these same people forget to take into account that injuries usually take almost a full season for a player to get back to form, and ADP and J.Charles although they say they are perfectly fine.. (because they want to believe that they are.. as they should be.. because 1/3 of all healing is believing that the treatment is working.. so props to them) .. however they won't be back to full form until mid to late season... the same people aren't taking into account the type of player that Cj2K is... a guy who is a sprinter.. has to be in great shape to be able to succeed...

he only carried the ball 260 times last year. because he was tired all the time, believe me i watched the games.. and wasted my first pick on him last year... that was 50 times less than 2010, and almost 100 times less than his record breaking year.....he was a DISASTER, and i learned my lessen not to draft players that haven't been in training camp or are coming off an acl tear too early in the draft.. i don't want players that will be good in week 8.. i want players that will be good in week 1 and all season long...

this however is a different year.. and CJ2K is determined to prove he is the best once again.. and has been participating in all team workouts, which he has never done before!.....

don't miss out on a top Fantasy back... because of one year where he was obviously not football ready.. and don't ignore the off season chatter about this guy either... he has looked explosive.. you will be sorry you didn't take him late in the 1st round if he is available to you...

 

[duaneok66]

You won't find a bigger CJ2K proponent than me. I have him entrenched as my the #4 RB on my board and anticipate he will be my top RB target in my auction.That said he was AWFUL last year. Unlike most of Chad Johnson's prime years when his inconsistency was overstated and not based on facts, the inconsistent label on CJ last year was well earned. Actually, he was consistent. Consistently bad.He gained 55% of his rushing yardage in 25% of his starts.Other than his 4 big games, he averaged 39 yards PER GAMESo in 75% of his starts he basically gave you horrid production.He only scored 4 TDs all year.He was so bad in 6 of the first 8 games of the year that many people had them on their bench when he finally did have a small stretch of production.Then he gave owners NOTHING down the stretch and in the FF playoffs.The fact that he finished top 10 is mostly a testament to how weak a year it was for RBs and he was able to have decent receiving numbers. People say numbers don't lie. Without looking at them in context, numbers lie all of the time.So let's not act like he was anything but THE SUCK last year. Because he was.But that was last year with the holdout. This year is a new year and again, I'm high on him.

This is far and away the best anlysis in this thread and has yet to be seriously refuted by anyone.There is no question that Johnson burried the owners who drafted him last year, regardless of what his end of the year numbers say.The rest of the arguments in this thread, as they relate to his FF impact last year, are not at all persuasive.He was a FF bust last year. Full stop.

agreed. Outstanding posts.

 

[kinghill]

CJ was a disaster last year if you were relying on him as your #1 scorer.

CJ was a disaster last year if you traded him for a WR2 or some #### early in the season like a lot of people were doing, and did not benefit from his much-better 2nd half of the season.

 

[davearm]

Chris Johnson looks "ok" last year because a ton of guys got hurt. On a per game basis (or per quarter if you read the new FBG article), CJ2K was awful.

Has the NFL released a memo stating that 2012 will be an injury-free year for running backs?I must have missed it

I trust you understand why you'd rather have a guy that scores 150 points in 10 games, and sits out 6 injured, versus a guy that scores 150 points in 16 games.The guys focusing on PPG surely do.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

You won't find a bigger CJ2K proponent than me. I have him entrenched as my the #4 RB on my board and anticipate he will be my top RB target in my auction.That said he was AWFUL last year. Unlike most of Chad Johnson's prime years when his inconsistency was overstated and not based on facts, the inconsistent label on CJ last year was well earned. Actually, he was consistent. Consistently bad.He gained 55% of his rushing yardage in 25% of his starts.Other than his 4 big games, he averaged 39 yards PER GAMESo in 75% of his starts he basically gave you horrid production.He only scored 4 TDs all year.He was so bad in 6 of the first 8 games of the year that many people had them on their bench when he finally did have a small stretch of production.Then he gave owners NOTHING down the stretch and in the FF playoffs.The fact that he finished top 10 is mostly a testament to how weak a year it was for RBs and he was able to have decent receiving numbers. People say numbers don't lie. Without looking at them in context, numbers lie all of the time.So let's not act like he was anything but THE SUCK last year. Because he was.But that was last year with the holdout. This year is a new year and again, I'm high on him.

This is far and away the best anlysis in this thread and has yet to be seriously refuted by anyone.There is no question that Johnson burried the owners who drafted him last year, regardless of what his end of the year numbers say.The rest of the arguments in this thread, as they relate to his FF impact last year, are not at all persuasive.He was a FF bust last year. Full stop.

Both great posts!

 

[12punch]

Chris Johnson looks "ok" last year because a ton of guys got hurt. On a per game basis (or per quarter if you read the new FBG article), CJ2K was awful.

Has the NFL released a memo stating that 2012 will be an injury-free year for running backs?I must have missed it

I must have missed the memo that he wasn't going to be one of them.

 

[Manster]

New year, looks explosive. I'll take him over run dmc, forte, or MJD. These guys have more ??? than CJ. Although, I cant argue too much about takin run dmc over CJ. dude is lightnin in a bottle.

 

[ppierce]

Huge dress rehersal for CJ2k tonight. I'll be watching closely for sure.

 

[ppierce]

New year, looks explosive. I'll take him over run dmc, forte, or MJD. These guys have more ??? than CJ. Although, I cant argue too much about takin run dmc over CJ. dude is lightnin in a bottle.

that zone blocking, one cut and go, is really intriguing for dmac. i think he could really thrive there.

 

[VaTerp]

Huge dress rehersal for CJ2k tonight. I'll be watching closely for sure.

Stats arent good but I'm fine with the way CJ is running.What's more concerning to me is Locker's inability to connect on any dump offs and Ringer being brought in on almost every 3rd down since the 1st series.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

The offensive line and defense are both better this year. Chris Johnson is in better shape so there's no doubt he'll be better. How much better, he's not going for 2000, he just doesn't look like that explosive player where he could take it to the house on any play. He could get 1300 yards rushing and 8 to 10 tds rushing and then throw in receiving stats and tds and you have a very solid year.

 

[duaneok66]

OL is not good otnight.

 

[12punch]

Huge dress rehersal for CJ2k tonight. I'll be watching closely for sure.

I think you nailed it.