Preseason Hype (1 Viewer)

[FreeBaGeL]

Every year the preseason comes along, and we watch these players play, and react to them differently. We'll see guys have their ADP adjust by multiple rounds based simply on what they did in a couple quarters of preseason play. Half the guys will yell "it's just preseason dummies!" while the other half throw their draft boards out the window and re-do them. Both sides of the argument start throwing names out the window. Guys who had their value changed in the preseason and lived up to it, and guys who had their value changed in the preseason and didn't. But really, by the end of the season most of us just remember what actually happened during the season, and beyond a couple guys it's hard to remember what the hype levels were at so many months or years ago.

Is a player having a great preseason really an indication of their performance in the regular season? I think it's about time we actually started tracking this. Let's keep a list of the guys that have had their value and people's perception of them drastically change (both for the better and the worse) in the preseason, and then re-visit it at the end of the year and see how it all actually played out.

It may be a small sample size for year 1, but over time we may be able to better adjust just how much or how little stock should be put into the preseason.

So, in the second post of this thread I've organized a list of guys who's value has changed heavily based on the preseason. Feel free to throw out other guys I may not have thought of offhand. At the end of the year, we can take that list and compare how predictive it really was.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

2010

Risers

Aaron Rodgers - QB, GB

Matthew Stafford - QB, Det

Ladainian Tomlinson - RB, NYJ

Ryan Matthews - RB, SD

Kareem Huggins - RB, TB

Jahvid Best - RB, Det

Arian Foster - RB, Hou

Jabar Gaffney - WR, Den

Johnny Knox - WR, Chi

Terrell Owens - WR, Cin

Mike Williams - WR, TB

Mike Williams - WR, Sea

JerMichael Finley - TE, GB

Fallers

Kevin Kolb - QB, Phi

Jay Cutler - QB, Chi

Maurice Jones-Drew - RB, Jac

Felix Jones - RB, Dal

Devin Thomas - WR, Was

 

[Drink G2]

I assume we are going to leave those whose stock fell because of injury out?

Such as Moreno

 

[DansRams]

Have to include Best as a Riser

 

[Ray_T]

Every year the preseason comes along, and we watch these players play, and react to them differently. We'll see guys have their ADP adjust by multiple rounds based simply on what they did in a couple quarters of preseason play. Half the guys will yell "it's just preseason dummies!" while the other half throw their draft boards out the window and re-do them. Both sides of the argument start throwing names out the window. Guys who had their value changed in the preseason and lived up to it, and guys who had their value changed in the preseason and didn't. But really, by the end of the season most of us just remember what actually happened during the season, and beyond a couple guys it's hard to remember what the hype levels were at so many months or years ago.Is a player having a great preseason really an indication of their performance in the regular season? I think it's about time we actually started tracking this. Let's keep a list of the guys that have had their value and people's perception of them drastically change (both for the better and the worse) in the preseason, and then re-visit it at the end of the year and see how it all actually played out.It may be a small sample size for year 1, but over time we may be able to better adjust just how much or how little stock should be put into the preseason.So, in the second post of this thread I've organized a list of guys who's value has changed heavily based on the preseason. Feel free to throw out other guys I may not have thought of offhand. At the end of the year, we can take that list and compare how predictive it really was.

I think it really depends.there are some coaches where pre season shows a lot, and some coaches give you no clue. But often you can read between the lines.for example: The incumbant starter (or the guy initially marked to be the starter at the start of camp) usually is given a chance to keep his job if he is on the bubble. So if his job is truly up for grabs, he will suddenly get more playing time in exhibition so they can compare his performance against the performance of the new guy.so in the example of Leinart, you saw that last year in exhibition he got a lot of play. This year, almost no play. Now the rumour has been that his job is up for grabs, but I havnt seen any evidence of a competition. So in looking at that, I think it is fair to say that his job is actually safe.If he and Anderson had split reps and both got a lot of them in Preseason, then there would be a legitimate competition for the starting job and I would move him down my draft board.In some cases, you have to use your head. They may play a rookie a lot, but only to get him experience. when he gets close to getting the starting job, they will cut back on his reps in the game so the incumbant gets a chance to show he deserves to keep his job. If they keep playing the rookie, then they either have no intention of giving him the starting job, or they really dont think much of the incumbant starter. If it is the latter, it will be quite obvious to everyone that the rookie is a lot better than the incumbant and you will have threads like this along with coaches comments to the media stating the same.I guess that's the best advice I can give you.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Have to include Best as a Riser

I waffled on this one. Best rose tremendously on this board well before the 1st preseason game. We'll see how people react to this week's game though, with him busting out a 51 yard carry on his first run it likely won't be long before he joins the club.

 

[Tau837]

Riser: Best

Fallers: Leinart, Fitz

 

[Amused to Death]

Riser: Foster

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

hype out of control:

Finley

Foster

J.Best

People panicing on:

romo

 

[nysportsfan]

Riser: Spiller

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

It's not just that it's preseason, but for non-dynasty leagues this time of year is the first time we actually have some of these guys on our fantasy rosters, so extreme - perhaps deluded - excitement runs wild.

 

[shredhead]

2010

Risers

Aaron Rodgers - QB, GB

Matthew Stafford - QB, Det

Ladainian Tomlinson - RB, NYJ

Ryan Matthews - RB, SD

Kareem Huggins - RB, TB

Jabar Gaffney - WR, Den

Johnny Knox - WR, Chi

Terrell Owens - WR, Cin

Mike Williams - WR, TB

JerMichael Finley - TE, GB

Fallers

Kevin Kolb - QB, Phi

Maurice Jones-Drew - RB, Jac

Devin Thomas - WR, Was

I quit reading. You may be on to something here, but you need to use better examples. What has MJD fallen to ? #4 overall? he just went #2 in my league a couple of hours ago.

 

[Instinctive]

I thought MJD fell a bit because of the knee thing...legit in my eyes.

Finley a riser? Nah...

 

[Ministry of Pain]

hype out of control:

Finley

Foster

J.Best

People panicing on:

romo

Straight across for Dallas Clark?

 

[Sweet Love]

We "sharks" laugh at those who attend a draft with a magazine in hand, but i will tell you, when the year plays out (IF you discount camp and preseason injuries), the magazine results printed in June don't look that awful in January when you compare them to the online rankings in late August. Sure they wiff mightily in some cases (like if Best reels off 1200 yards rushing and 8TDs, we all laugh at the rankings), but what I like about magazines is that they don't (because they can't since they are printed in June) buy into preseason hype. I use the online rankings, projections and board materials to make my decisions, but I also am sure to go back to a Fantasy Football Index print copy, just to ensure my thoughts are "grounded". I took Steve Slaton in a draft the other day as my RB5. FFI print magazine had him as a top 25 guy...my guess is that he will end up closer to their ranking than what you see him at today. Hey, maybe it is because of injury (Tate for example), but we quickly forget in the preseason haze that the reason Tate was drafted in the first place is because BOTH Slaton AND Foster did not deliver last year.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

We "sharks" laugh at those who attend a draft with a magazine in hand, but i will tell you, when the year plays out (IF you discount camp and preseason injuries), the magazine results printed in June don't look that awful in January when you compare them to the online rankings in late August. Sure they wiff mightily in some cases (like if Best reels off 1200 yards rushing and 8TDs, we all laugh at the rankings), but what I like about magazines is that they don't (because they can't since they are printed in June) buy into preseason hype. I use the online rankings, projections and board materials to make my decisions, but I also am sure to go back to a Fantasy Football Index print copy, just to ensure my thoughts are "grounded". I took Steve Slaton in a draft the other day as my RB5. FFI print magazine had him as a top 25 guy...my guess is that he will end up closer to their ranking than what you see him at today. Hey, maybe it is because of injury (Tate for example), but we quickly forget in the preseason haze that the reason Tate was drafted in the first place is because BOTH Slaton AND Foster did not deliver last year.

Hey Sweets, your boy has a case of turf toe apparently FYI...

 

[zilladog]

These guys all make my list but in varying degrees of rising and falling;

Risers:

Foster (in a HUGE way)

Mike Williams (TB)

Mike Williams (SEA)

Finley (another no brainer)

Kareem Huggins

Victor Cruz

C.J. Spiiler

Aaron Hernandez (Gronk too but probably not by as much)

Reggie Bush

Fallers:

Vincent Jackson (not sure if he counts here but I'm going with it)

Knowshon

Romo

Felix Jones

Jammal Charles (probably about to change though)

And lastly a guy who's about to do a complete 180 from bargain basement faller to sky high riser: Darren McFadden

FWIW, I really hope preseason is an indication of success because I got Foster, TB Mike Williams, Reggie Bush and Aaron Hernandez in my dynasty league well before preseason even started. So far so good!

 

[Jimboozie]

I don't think Romo should fall too much, perhaps a few spots or a round at most. The guy has shown he can put up huge numbers without the greatest pass protection.

Also, I don't think Foster's rise should necessarily count. Going into preseason, many people were not certain that he would be the guy. However, it's become pretty clear with that he will be getting the most touches.

+1 on Jahvid Best, Spiller, Stafford, Tomlinson rising (I'm not completely sold on Spiller, but I'm buying the others)

 

[twistd]

I learn a lot from the preseason. I think Cutler is a player who has dropped. The consensus seemed to be that if Cutler stayed healthy he could put up some monster numbers. So far the offensive line has been terrible and Cutler doesn't seem to be on the same page with his receivers. I've dropped him down on my board. The line problems have caused me to drop both Forte and Taylor, despite Forte's big run. Forte looks good, but if no one blocks for him he can't do all that much. Knox seems to be the only player that I feel really good about on the Bears.

Another guy I've moved up is Reggie Bush. He looks healthy. He has run pretty effectively between the tackles. He's flying under the radar, so in PPR he has moved up my board.

I was nervous about Rivers going in to the preseason, but he has looked good so far. Floyd, Naanee, and Gates all look solid. I've moved him up a little. I've moved Floyd and Naanee up my board too.

The Cardinals are having trouble offensively. Wells has dropped a little while Hightower has moved up a little. It seems the Cardinals seem determined to keep Hightower involved, and he looks solid. I probably won't be drafting Fitzy after the problems I've seen in AZ.

Farve has dropped for me because of the problems with Harvin and Rice.

Going in to the season I had Chris Johnson and AP as pretty even. Now the Viking problems have definitely moved CJ to the #1 spot and AP down to 2, for me anyway.

 

[JKL]

I think it depends on the reason for the major shift in ADP in the preseason. Reacting to a couple of big plays or relatively poor play is different than reacting to information about a change in roles from what the perception was before the preseason.

Arian Foster and Mike Williams of Tampa are two examples of the latter. Back in July, Foster was part of a three way muddled picture at RB. With Tate out and Slaton getting some work on special teams, it seems pretty clear that he will be the main man in Houston. Now, instead of a 3 way share in a top offense, you have a guy that can get major points in a top offense, and the shift is based on that. Same thing with Williams, as instead of being part of a group of several unknowns, it appears as though he is WR1 now based on the preseason usage, and he has flashed why the Bucs have been talking him up since workouts began.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I learn a lot from the preseason. I think Cutler is a player who has dropped. The consensus seemed to be that if Cutler stayed healthy he could put up some monster numbers. So far the offensive line has been terrible and Cutler doesn't seem to be on the same page with his receivers. I've dropped him down on my board. The line problems have caused me to drop both Forte and Taylor, despite Forte's big run. Forte looks good, but if no one blocks for him he can't do all that much. Knox seems to be the only player that I feel really good about on the Bears.Another guy I've moved up is Reggie Bush. He looks healthy. He has run pretty effectively between the tackles. He's flying under the radar, so in PPR he has moved up my board.I was nervous about Rivers going in to the preseason, but he has looked good so far. Floyd, Naanee, and Gates all look solid. I've moved him up a little. I've moved Floyd and Naanee up my board too.The Cardinals are having trouble offensively. Wells has dropped a little while Hightower has moved up a little. It seems the Cardinals seem determined to keep Hightower involved, and he looks solid. I probably won't be drafting Fitzy after the problems I've seen in AZ.Farve has dropped for me because of the problems with Harvin and Rice. Going in to the season I had Chris Johnson and AP as pretty even. Now the Viking problems have definitely moved CJ to the #1 spot and AP down to 2, for me anyway.

Cutler was something like QB15 off the board in a redraft I was helping with yesterday afternoon. I was really surprised. 12 team and guys were reaching for QBs in the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd rounds, but Cutler fell to soemthing like the 10th.

 

[zilladog]

I think it depends on the reason for the major shift in ADP in the preseason. Reacting to a couple of big plays or relatively poor play is different than reacting to information about a change in roles from what the perception was before the preseason.Arian Foster and Mike Williams of Tampa are two examples of the latter. Back in July, Foster was part of a three way muddled picture at RB. With Tate out and Slaton getting some work on special teams, it seems pretty clear that he will be the main man in Houston. Now, instead of a 3 way share in a top offense, you have a guy that can get major points in a top offense, and the shift is based on that. Same thing with Williams, as instead of being part of a group of several unknowns, it appears as though he is WR1 now based on the preseason usage, and he has flashed why the Bucs have been talking him up since workouts began.

So is this thread about guys who rise and fall based purely on performance? Or are we meant to factor in situation changes? I see no reason why both shouldn't matter considering many FFers are so fickle and change our opinions on guys daily based on what comes across the news wire that day. So I believe it's relevant.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Added Best and Foster to the risers list. I'm still torn on Seattle's Mike Williams.

I'm going to go ahead and leave Knowshon off since he's basically missed the whole preseason, so it's not really the preseason affecting his value.

What do you guys think about Matt Moore on the fallers list? There seemed to be a lot more hubbub going around about him before he stepped out onto the field in the preseason and didn't do particularly well.

UPDATE: Alex Smith is another one that could go on that list.

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

I learn a lot from the preseason. I think Cutler is a player who has dropped. The consensus seemed to be that if Cutler stayed healthy he could put up some monster numbers. So far the offensive line has been terrible and Cutler doesn't seem to be on the same page with his receivers. I've dropped him down on my board. The line problems have caused me to drop both Forte and Taylor, despite Forte's big run. Forte looks good, but if no one blocks for him he can't do all that much. Knox seems to be the only player that I feel really good about on the Bears.

Cutler was something like QB15 off the board in a redraft I was helping with yesterday afternoon. I was really surprised. 12 team and guys were reaching for QBs in the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd rounds, but Cutler fell to soemthing like the 10th.

I recently took Cutler at 8.2 in a 12-team league, but he was the 12th QB off the board. And that's in a league of half Bears fans. He is in freefall.I think his TDs could go as low as 20 but he'll be knocking on 4k yards again.Funny that he has gone from a top 5/6 preseason ranking last year to a "gamble" this season in an apparently better environment for stats.

 

[Aardvarks]

Moreno doesn't get enough press with that injury a month ago. It could be chronic hammie pull right? That said i hope he falls to the fourth and I will take my chances.

 

[Tau837]

I learn a lot from the preseason. I think Cutler is a player who has dropped. The consensus seemed to be that if Cutler stayed healthy he could put up some monster numbers. So far the offensive line has been terrible and Cutler doesn't seem to be on the same page with his receivers. I've dropped him down on my board. The line problems have caused me to drop both Forte and Taylor, despite Forte's big run. Forte looks good, but if no one blocks for him he can't do all that much. Knox seems to be the only player that I feel really good about on the Bears.

Cutler was something like QB15 off the board in a redraft I was helping with yesterday afternoon. I was really surprised. 12 team and guys were reaching for QBs in the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd rounds, but Cutler fell to soemthing like the 10th.

I recently took Cutler at 8.2 in a 12-team league, but he was the 12th QB off the board. And that's in a league of half Bears fans. He is in freefall.I think his TDs could go as low as 20 but he'll be knocking on 4k yards again.Funny that he has gone from a top 5/6 preseason ranking last year to a "gamble" this season in an apparently better environment for stats.

Cutler was the 13th QB drafted in my 16 team redraft last night. I found that mildly surprising.

 

[senyera]

I would also vote for Mike Williams (SEA). He was completely unknown going into the season until coaches, players, and reporters started praising him and he played well in preseason. Not getting ridiculous hype but hype nonetheless and fits the definition.

 

[Rovers]

Boldin is clearly rising. Flacco threw a lot more in PS game 3 than most of us expected, and Boldin... I got him at 4.02 (#40) last weekend, and second guessed the move. Starting to feel better about that now.

That is certainly a knee jerk reaction based on one PS game. But, Boldin isn't David Clowney either.

 

[Happy Ragnarok]

Once Mike Wallace has his second consecutive outstanding performance tonight, you're going to want to add him.

Faster than Santonio, and hands and route running on par. Morals and impending contract negotiations weren't the only reason the Black and Gold were comfortable jettisoning Holmes. Wallace is gonna be Holmes-level good, *this* season.

 

[Britney Spears]

Once Mike Wallace has his second consecutive outstanding performance tonight, you're going to want to add him.

Faster than Santonio, and hands and route running on par. Morals and impending contract negotiations weren't the only reason the Black and Gold were comfortable jettisoning Holmes. Wallace is gonna be Holmes-level good, *this* season.

That didn't take long!

 

[Texasmouth]

Stock up

Flacco

Ryan Matthews (went 7th in my draft yesterday)

Arian Foster

Jahvid Best

Jermichael Finley

Stock down

Felix Jones

MJD

Steven Jackson (Got him at 11, saw him at 2.06 in another league)

Larry Johnson

 

[hook014]

Once Mike Wallace has his second consecutive outstanding performance tonight, you're going to want to add him.

Faster than Santonio, and hands and route running on par. Morals and impending contract negotiations weren't the only reason the Black and Gold were comfortable jettisoning Holmes. Wallace is gonna be Holmes-level good, *this* season.

That didn't take long!

Sooooo glad I drafted early this year....

 

[ceo3west]

Just had a 12 tm auction 0.5 ppr, $200 cap. The hype is out of control.

Spiller $27

A Foster $31

J. Best $35

 

[Sweet Love]

We "sharks" laugh at those who attend a draft with a magazine in hand, but i will tell you, when the year plays out (IF you discount camp and preseason injuries), the magazine results printed in June don't look that awful in January when you compare them to the online rankings in late August. Sure they wiff mightily in some cases (like if Best reels off 1200 yards rushing and 8TDs, we all laugh at the rankings), but what I like about magazines is that they don't (because they can't since they are printed in June) buy into preseason hype. I use the online rankings, projections and board materials to make my decisions, but I also am sure to go back to a Fantasy Football Index print copy, just to ensure my thoughts are "grounded". I took Steve Slaton in a draft the other day as my RB5. FFI print magazine had him as a top 25 guy...my guess is that he will end up closer to their ranking than what you see him at today. Hey, maybe it is because of injury (Tate for example), but we quickly forget in the preseason haze that the reason Tate was drafted in the first place is because BOTH Slaton AND Foster did not deliver last year.

Hey Sweets, your boy has a case of turf toe apparently FYI...

Say it ain't so, MOP...haven't heard a thing yet...

 

[GregR_2]

I think when you come back and look at this at season's end, it's also going to need some consideration paid to where they started out at and where the hype moved them to.

Good examples of this would be Kareem Huggins and TB Mike Williams. For most redrafters they probably were nowhere near the realm of draft-worthy before the hype. Now Huggins is being drafted 198th as RB58 and TB-MW is being drafted 129 as WR47.

All it should take from Huggins for his hype to be judged appropriate is for him to hold on to the backup spot all year long. If TB-MW ends up anywhere in the top 50 it would be very appropriate hype and if he's top 60 it's probably still not bad as the hype is what put him on people's radar that he's at least a possible fantasy backup.

 

[Sweet Love]

I learn a lot from the preseason. I think Cutler is a player who has dropped. The consensus seemed to be that if Cutler stayed healthy he could put up some monster numbers. So far the offensive line has been terrible and Cutler doesn't seem to be on the same page with his receivers. I've dropped him down on my board. The line problems have caused me to drop both Forte and Taylor, despite Forte's big run. Forte looks good, but if no one blocks for him he can't do all that much. Knox seems to be the only player that I feel really good about on the Bears.

Cutler was something like QB15 off the board in a redraft I was helping with yesterday afternoon. I was really surprised. 12 team and guys were reaching for QBs in the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd rounds, but Cutler fell to soemthing like the 10th.

I recently took Cutler at 8.2 in a 12-team league, but he was the 12th QB off the board. And that's in a league of half Bears fans. He is in freefall.I think his TDs could go as low as 20 but he'll be knocking on 4k yards again.Funny that he has gone from a top 5/6 preseason ranking last year to a "gamble" this season in an apparently better environment for stats.

Cutler was the 13th QB drafted in my 16 team redraft last night. I found that mildly surprising.

Cutler was QB 12 in my league (actually QB 14, but we have a rookie keeper rule) and that did surprise me...what I came away with during that 12 team draft is that if I secure two QBs in the QB 10-13 slots, I could walk away with Cutler and Eli and I just think that combo will be sick...lesson learned going into my next couple of drafts...

 

[bonesman]

I'm going to go ahead and leave Knowshon off since he's basically missed the whole preseason, so it's not really the preseason affecting his value.What do you guys think about Matt Moore on the fallers list? There seemed to be a lot more hubbub going around about him before he stepped out onto the field in the preseason and didn't do particularly well.

I think if you leave Knowshon off you should leave Moore off too since Moore's struggles can be partially attributed to him not having his #1 weapon on the field with him. (Smith)