Preseason (Over) Reactions (1 Viewer)

[karmarooster]

now that we've had a chance to watch some preseason games where the starters played somewhere between a quarter and a half, i think it's safe to start making some judgements. Obviously, caution is warranted because it's only pre-season, but there are some snap judgements to be made here. the 3rd games should confirm of deny these suspicions, but now is the time to whittle your draft boards down and separate your players to target or avoid. I'm talking re-draft, PPR, 12 team leagues, start 2 RBs plus flex. Thoughts by ADP:

1st Round:

[*]CJ, AP, MJD, Rice, Gore - All studs. Don't stress.

[*]Mendenhall should be right after this group too. a true bell cow, and the steelers O-line is way better at run blocking than pass blocking.

[*]Turner and Sjax have not changed from my Pre-preseason opinion, both are solid.

2nd Round:

[*]Mathews is legit, but crazy expensive. Best and Spiller are both better options later.

[*]Dwill is up bc Stewart will never be healthy.

[*]Greene is losing ground to LT. But chauncy washington also looked pretty slick for a while. The jets are physical and move the line. It seems obvious now that LT will handle 3RB duties and be relied on in the redzone/goal line. he looks much fresher than last year.

3rd Round:

[*]There's a strong case for R.Grant to be a legit 2nd rounder. The offensive is explosive and there is no comp. for carries.

[*]PThomas is very sold. 200-275 carries expected. But Reggie Bush also looks like he's turned a corner.

[*]Benson is still a workhorse, and safe ala R.Grant.

[*]Charles is still risky. Boom/bust pick, the opposite of Grant. I'm leery not bc TJones but Haley seems to be a ##### enough to be spiteful.

[*]McCoy is dropping. He's looked weak in short yardage, and is not explosive enough. The nay-sayers may be right.

4th Round: Lots of good stuff here.

[*]Forte looks healthy and ready to return to PPR stud-status. My only caution is that Frank Gore was a bit inconsistent with Martz.

[*]Best is heavily involved and just as likely to be ROY as mathews. Better off grabing a stud WR in the 2nd and looking for value RB in the 4th.

[*]Addai is not a sexy pick but still worth it. Long runs, catching the ball, and Brown is not taking over this year.

[*]Stewart is scaring me. Same old story with him. He'll probably produce, but it would be nice if he came into the year healthy. Too many solid options in this ADP range to grab an oft injured backup.

[*]Wells and Moreno haven't done anything to impress.

5th Round:

[*]Ronnie is decent but the Fragile label is hard to shake.

[*]Felix is overrated. I've been a big fan of him but it's just not going to happen. Barber is involved and so is choice. Better to look for a RB with a chance to top 200 carries. Felix is not likely to do that.

6th Round:

[*]Bradshaw. Yes. Yes in the 5th too.

[*]Foster. Yes. A steal. no competition, effective run blocking scheme, and solid offense.

[*]Spiller is riskier than Foster/Bradshaw IMO but could be special.

[*]Reggie Bush looks like he could actually be a RB. In the playoffs last year, and the preseason game, he looks like he's running mad. 7 for 49 (7.0ypc) and a TD on a run when he wouldn't be denied. Possibly a better value than PThomas. I wouldn't be surprised to see him catch another 50+ passes and have a career high in carries this year (150+)

[*]Barber is a better value than Felix.

[*]Forsett and the seattle offense look middling. He's been surpassed by others in this range.

[*]Jacobs i wont touch. he never catches anything, and has lost his job to Bradshaw. not a bad bye-week option because of TDs, but not much more than that.

7th Round:

[*]Michael Bush is the Man. DMC is untouchable.

[*]Portis was a target of mine, but hasn't showed much. I don't know if Shanny will be able to implement his scheme with the O-Line in the first year. Still not a bad pick this late, but not worth it any earlier.

[*]LT should move up, possibly this high. there will be enough carries for him and greene, and LT might get the more valuable touches (receptions plus TDs). Greene will churn out the yards, but LT might be startable even if greene is healthy and effective.

Questions for the shark pool: Who are you moving up your board? Who's worth taking a round early to make sure you get him? Last year it was Ray Rice... some people were screaming that he wasn't worth a 4th round pick, but i believe in getting the guys you want. For example, it makes little sense to me to say "Ronnie is such a good value in the 5th!" instead of jumping on Bradshaw or Foster if you have the conviction. Who's on your Do-Not-Draft list? Mine: Mathews, Greene, Charles, McCoy, Felix, Jacobs. Thoughts? Concurring/Dissenting opinions are both welcome.

 

[Babu Bhatt2]

Portis is way underrated IMO.

 

[Ariakis]

SJax in the 1st I would not touch simply for the risk. McCoy, DWill, Mendy, Matthews are likely also not going to be on my team unless they slide more than their ADP suggests. I want no part of Harrison or Forsett. Tempted to say the current hype guys may start going TOO early similar to what happened with Felix and others last year. I'm talking Bradshaw (injury/RBBC), Foster (unproven/RBBC), etc.

 

[karmarooster]

SJax in the 1st I would not touch simply for the risk. McCoy, DWill, Mendy, Matthews are likely also not going to be on my team unless they slide more than their ADP suggests. I want no part of Harrison or Forsett. Tempted to say the current hype guys may start going TOO early similar to what happened with Felix and others last year. I'm talking Bradshaw (injury/RBBC), Foster (unproven/RBBC), etc.

fair point. at what ADP would you consider them worth it and when are they over-rated? I consider them steals in the 6th, and possibly worth it in the late 5th.

 

[karmarooster]

Portis is way underrated IMO.

This is what i was thinking pre-preseason, but there hasn't been much to consider. just 2 carries last night. 8 for 36 yards (4.5 ypc) over two games. If you believe in him, it's based on intuition, and nothing that i've seen so far... ie he hasn't made me say Wow. how early would you consider him?

 

[todisco1]

Good thread.

I've moved both Bush's and Bradshaw up.

Also Leon Washington looks like he could be great value - he's just more explosive than Forsett and appears to be healthy. Will be RBBC in Seattle regardless but if he stays on the field he could see the most touches.

I'm all in on the Huggins hype. As a late round flyer I think you could do much worse.

 

[hook014]

Awesome write up. I agree with 95% of it and should probably print it and reread it in the minutes leading up to my draft tonight.

On Mattews I disagree just a little bit, yeah he's expensive, but I actually like his chances better than J Best and a whole lot better than Spiller due to surrounding cast. I hope my opponents don't read this. Yikes.

 

[karmarooster]

Good thread.

I've moved both Bush's and Bradshaw up. How High?

Also Leon Washington looks like he could be great value - he's just more explosive than Forsett and appears to be healthy. Will be RBBC in Seattle regardless but if he stays on the field he could see the most touches. Good call. He looked good last night... further reason to downgrade Forsett.

I'm all in on the Huggins hype. As a late round flyer I think you could do much worse. Who??

 

[Multiple Scores]

Since Mendenhall was brought up, where would he have to fall in a draft to take him? He's slipping in mine it seems and I'm coming up, PPR league.

 

[karmarooster]

Awesome write up. I agree with 95% of it and should probably print it and reread it in the minutes leading up to my draft tonight. On Mattews I disagree just a little bit, yeah he's expensive, but I actually like his chances better than J Best and a whole lot better than Spiller due to surrounding cast. I hope my opponents don't read this. Yikes.

Give me Calvin, Marshall, Austin or White over mathews in the 2nd, and i'll take value at Rb in the 4th or 5th. It's nothing personal about mathews, just value.

 

[Ariakis]

I think you gotta go WR in the latter half of the first because that tier at RB just seems so large unless someone surprising drops.

RE: Foster/Bradshaw/etc - 5/6 sounds about right although it used to be 9/10ish. That's exactly what happened with guys like Felix Jones last year ... people started taking him where his upside barring total breakout would place him and forgetting about the risk of NOT getting the opportunities. I wouldn't be shocked if someone snakes them in the 4th to try to beat the curve actually which is a bad idea.

 

[karmarooster]

Since Mendenhall was brought up, where would he have to fall in a draft to take him? He's slipping in mine it seems and I'm coming up, PPR league.

IMO he's a toss up with Sjax and Turner. Certainly after Big 5 RBs + AJ, but after that, he's in the same group as Jackson, Turner, and Moss.

 

[karmarooster]

I think you gotta go WR in the latter half of the first because that tier at RB just seems so large unless someone surprising drops.

RE: Foster/Bradshaw/etc - 5/6 sounds about right although it used to be 9/10ish. That's exactly what happened with guys like Felix Jones last year ... people started taking him where his upside barring total breakout would place him and forgetting about the risk of NOT getting the opportunities. I wouldn't be shocked if someone snakes them in the 4th to try to beat the curve actually which is a bad idea.

this is what people said last year about ray rice, too. they swore him off once he rose to the 4th round. i guess for every felix there's a rice.ETA - this line of thinking applies more so to Mathews. currently the RB8... where's the upside? Sure there's a very slight chance he finishes higher than that, but basically his upside is capped based on where he's going. he might live up to it and finish in the RB8-12 range, but short of him becoming the next super-stud, there's little value.

 

[Multiple Scores]

Great write up. I disagree with a bunch but also agree with some, nice write up as I said.

I think the LT lovers are in for a surprise this year when the nail goes in the coffin, the guys legs are toast. I'm not going to sit here and say he hasn't appeared impressive because truth be told he has looked good, my conviction that he is done and the wheels have fallen off is too strong to let a couple of preseason games change that, I am real high on Greene but that doesn't have much to do about LT.

I'm fine with Mathews price, I'd target him where he is going.

I agree about Bradshaw, this is where preseason holds some water with me, he has slighly outperformed what I thought about him and I think it's mainly because he's getting the opportunity, the opportunity was what I believed he was lacking and this can only help his cause.

I think it's unfair to have any judgements about Moreno, he hasn't played, I'm not a huge fan but to say he hasn't done anything to impress is literally correct but incomplete since he hasn't done anything due to injury.

Chris Wells is someone I believe in, we'll see what type of opportunity he gets, he has only one game so far.

Lesean Mccoy, agree completely, don't think he has the physical tools (leg drive) to be much in this league.

Forte, looking good but not buying, I'm not buying any Bears, this year at least.

Benson, I'll target him at his ADP.

Addai, I would draft him but I wouldn't touch him in round 4.

Charles/Foster/M. Bush are all players I likely won't own but am very intrigued to see year end stats, could be REAL good or REAL bad.

Reggie Bush is looking good, he's a target at his ADP.

I think you're missing the boat on the Felix/Barber situation but not really targets of mine (injury paranoia) unless they slip further than here.

 

[Multiple Scores]

Since Mendenhall was brought up, where would he have to fall in a draft to take him? He's slipping in mine it seems and I'm coming up, PPR league.

IMO he's a toss up with Sjax and Turner. Certainly after Big 5 RBs + AJ, but after that, he's in the same group as Jackson, Turner, and Moss.

He might be slipping in some drafts, he went at 2.8, I picked 2.9.

 

[karmarooster]

I think you're missing the boat on the Felix/Barber situation but not really targets of mine (injury paranoia) unless they slip further than here.

Ok, so what's the boat?

 

[TheAssassin]

Since Mendenhall was brought up, where would he have to fall in a draft to take him? He's slipping in mine it seems and I'm coming up, PPR league.

IMO he's a toss up with Sjax and Turner. Certainly after Big 5 RBs + AJ, but after that, he's in the same group as Jackson, Turner, and Moss.

He might be slipping in some drafts, he went at 2.8, I picked 2.9.

The way the Steelers' line looks, I'd be surprised if Mendy makes the top 15 RBs.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

I think you're missing the boat on the Felix/Barber situation but not really targets of mine (injury paranoia) unless they slip further than here.

Ok, so what's the boat?

Barber was top 15 (top 10 once even) as a second fiddle to Julius Jones in 06-07 because he got the GL work. He'll get that and probably be a 1A to Felix this year. Steal in the 6th/7th.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Since Mendenhall was brought up, where would he have to fall in a draft to take him? He's slipping in mine it seems and I'm coming up, PPR league.

IMO he's a toss up with Sjax and Turner. Certainly after Big 5 RBs + AJ, but after that, he's in the same group as Jackson, Turner, and Moss.

He might be slipping in some drafts, he went at 2.8, I picked 2.9.

The way the Steelers' line looks, I'd be surprised if Mendy makes the top 15 RBs.

Id rather go RB in the first and WR in the 2nd than have Mendy be my RB1. If its nonPPR and you're looking for a strong RB2, I would still prefer Benson in the 3rd over Mendy in the 2nd.

 

[TS Garp]

I think the LT lovers are in for a surprise this year when the nail goes in the coffin, the guys legs are toast. I'm not going to sit here and say he hasn't appeared impressive because truth be told he has looked good, my conviction that he is done and the wheels have fallen off is too strong to let a couple of preseason games change that,

 

[TheAssassin]

Spot on Bloom (IMO).

I have Mendy right below Benson.

 

[AtomicDogg97]

What exactly is the risk with Arian Foster? He played well at the end of last year, and he is the unquestioned starter on a great offense.

I play in a league where running backs fly off the board every year. If Foster is there in the late 4th where I pick I will take him.

 

[karmarooster]

Since Mendenhall was brought up, where would he have to fall in a draft to take him? He's slipping in mine it seems and I'm coming up, PPR league.

IMO he's a toss up with Sjax and Turner. Certainly after Big 5 RBs + AJ, but after that, he's in the same group as Jackson, Turner, and Moss.

He might be slipping in some drafts, he went at 2.8, I picked 2.9.

The way the Steelers' line looks, I'd be surprised if Mendy makes the top 15 RBs.

it's my opinion that they are better at run blocking than pass blocking. Mendenhall is one of few backs in the league that is the primary option on 1st and 2nd down, 3rd down, and Goal line/redzone. From Football Outsiders Almanac 2010:

Mendenhall projects as an All-Pro, which hopefully would be enough to get Pittsburgh fans off his back. It probably would take 1,500 yards and double-digit touchdowns (his projection) to make folks in the Confluence forget the fractured shoulder he incurred after taunting the Ravens as a rookie. He lacks top-end speed, but his work as a receiver makes up for it. Beating out Ray Rice and Chris Johnson for the spot in receiving DVOA amongst running backs suggests that the screen could become a huge part of the Steelers’ offense during Ro- ethlisberger’s suspension. Since he has very little competition for carries on a team that will feature improved defense and, for the first few games, increased use of the ground game, we see Mendenhall as a surprise entry into this year’s fantasy top five.

FOA Projections: 344 carries, 1550 yards (4.5 ypc), 38 receptions, 341 yards, 11 total TDs. 293 points PPR. last year that would've made him RB5. last year he averaged 4.6 ypc on 240 carries. also, he did all his damage between weeks 4 and 17.... only 8 touches in the first 3 weeks. Prorating his 204 points from last to 16 games instead of 13 gives him 250 points, approx. RB 6/7.He's already done it, and in fact did finish last year at RB16 despite being the feature RB in only 13 games.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

What exactly is the risk with Arian Foster? He played well at the end of last year, and he is the unquestioned starter on a great offense.I play in a league where running backs fly off the board every year. If Foster is there in the late 4th where I pick I will take him.

Fumblitis could get him yanked at any time, just as it did in week 15 vs STL. He fumbled again last night and had ball security troubles at Tennessee. He's worth a 7th/8th, maybe even 6th in RB crazy leagues, but 4th is a stretch b/c you are passing on elite QB/WR/TE to get him - in RB crazy leagues, great nonRB options still there around that time.

 

[Unlucky]

I also dislike Mendenhall - poor O-line, and I'm not sure he'll get many short TDs, thus total TDs will be limited.

Mathews in the early 2nd is still better than Turner or SJax in the 1st. I have Mathews #6 after the big 5. (Gore makes 5) I am also high on Austin, and in some ways would love to draft at the end of the 1st to get Austin and Mathews as my top 2.

Spiller and Best are still great values, but will be climbing the charts.

I, too, have come around on Reggie Bush and feel that he and Pierre Thomas can both put up huge numbers this year. Should one get hurt, the other's value skyrockets.

I have few, if any, other disagreements with your writeup - good stuff.

 

[karmarooster]

Since Mendenhall was brought up, where would he have to fall in a draft to take him? He's slipping in mine it seems and I'm coming up, PPR league.

IMO he's a toss up with Sjax and Turner. Certainly after Big 5 RBs + AJ, but after that, he's in the same group as Jackson, Turner, and Moss.

He might be slipping in some drafts, he went at 2.8, I picked 2.9.

The way the Steelers' line looks, I'd be surprised if Mendy makes the top 15 RBs.

Id rather go RB in the first and WR in the 2nd than have Mendy be my RB1. If its nonPPR and you're looking for a strong RB2, I would still prefer Benson in the 3rd over Mendy in the 2nd.

since we are talking PPR, i think it gives Mendenhall a significant boost over Benson. I'm curious as to why there is some consensus for ranking Benson over Mendy.-4.2 ypc for benson last year vs. 4.6 for mendendhall-17 receptions vs. 25 (both essentially played 13 games)-6 TDs vs. 8-Bernard Scott is a better weapon than Moore-TO is a def. boost tho. Benson will not see anymore 8 in the box. Of course i though the same thing about Lynch last year (doh).IMO, Mendenhall is likely to lead Benson in yards, receptions, and TDs.ETA - i dont want to come across as chasing last year's stats too much. However I'm certain that Mendenhall finishes with more receptions than Benson in 2010, and thus more points in PPR.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Excellent thread topic. Getting ready for my draft but I want to look at this later. Nice job Karma

 

[karmarooster]

Just wanted to say thanks to everyone for the discussion and opinions. I appreciate them all even if I don't agree. everyone should be excited for drafts, pre-season, and sept. 9th!

.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Portis is way underrated IMO.

This is what i was thinking pre-preseason, but there hasn't been much to consider. just 2 carries last night. 8 for 36 yards (4.5 ypc) over two games. If you believe in him, it's based on intuition, and nothing that i've seen so far... ie he hasn't made me say Wow. how early would you consider him?

Let's look at the flip side: who else on the roster has looked like a stud? Larry Johnson didn't do anything last night, and frankly, I thought he looked slow and indecisive. Maybe the O-line is just terrible, but in that case, Portis has somehow managed to average 4.5 ypc behind the same line.When you pair the early results with intangibles (e.g., Portis can block, LJ cannot), I struggle to see who will get major carries over Portis.

 

[wormburner]

Portis is way underrated IMO.

This is what i was thinking pre-preseason, but there hasn't been much to consider. just 2 carries last night. 8 for 36 yards (4.5 ypc) over two games. If you believe in him, it's based on intuition, and nothing that i've seen so far... ie he hasn't made me say Wow. how early would you consider him?

Let's look at the flip side: who else on the roster has looked like a stud? Larry Johnson didn't do anything last night, and frankly, I thought he looked slow and indecisive. Maybe the O-line is just terrible, but in that case, Portis has somehow managed to average 4.5 ypc behind the same line.When you pair the early results with intangibles (e.g., Portis can block, LJ cannot), I struggle to see who will get major carries over Portis.

We touched on some of this on the Portis Thread. The same thing happened in KC, LJ was a dud before Jamaal Charles became a stud behind the same O line. Portis is clearly the starter for now. But, while clearly not in the stud stratosphere, will Ryan Torain become the rb to own at some point this season?

 

[Ariakis]

I think you gotta go WR in the latter half of the first because that tier at RB just seems so large unless someone surprising drops.

RE: Foster/Bradshaw/etc - 5/6 sounds about right although it used to be 9/10ish. That's exactly what happened with guys like Felix Jones last year ... people started taking him where his upside barring total breakout would place him and forgetting about the risk of NOT getting the opportunities. I wouldn't be shocked if someone snakes them in the 4th to try to beat the curve actually which is a bad idea.

this is what people said last year about ray rice, too. they swore him off once he rose to the 4th round. i guess for every felix there's a rice.ETA - this line of thinking applies more so to Mathews. currently the RB8... where's the upside? Sure there's a very slight chance he finishes higher than that, but basically his upside is capped based on where he's going. he might live up to it and finish in the RB8-12 range, but short of him becoming the next super-stud, there's little value.

Thing with Matthews is Sproles is still there among other reasons that I think he's overvalued too.

 

[mozzy84]

What exactly is the risk with Arian Foster? He played well at the end of last year, and he is the unquestioned starter on a great offense.

I play in a league where running backs fly off the board every year. If Foster is there in the late 4th where I pick I will take him.

Fumblitis could get him yanked at any time, just as it did in week 15 vs STL. He fumbled again last night and had ball security troubles at Tennessee. He's worth a 7th/8th, maybe even 6th in RB crazy leagues, but 4th is a stretch b/c you are passing on elite QB/WR/TE to get him - in RB crazy leagues, great nonRB options still there around that time.

right where he went in my draft last night, middle of the 7th. 4th seems way high to me...

 

[32 Counter Pass]

I like what I have been hearing about Portis, but I am having a tough time over looking Shannahan's history when it comes to RBs. Round 7 is just about where it is worth a gamble on him, depending on who else is available.

 

[Babu Bhatt2]

Portis is way underrated IMO.

This is what i was thinking pre-preseason, but there hasn't been much to consider. just 2 carries last night. 8 for 36 yards (4.5 ypc) over two games. If you believe in him, it's based on intuition, and nothing that i've seen so far... ie he hasn't made me say Wow. how early would you consider him?

I like Portis for two reasons: (1) he's the only running back in town (LJ and Parker stink), and (2) we know he has skills. His ADP falls around round 5 and 6, around guys like Felix Jones, Ahmad Bradshaw, Brandon Jacobs, Arian Foster, Michael Bush, and Forsett. Of those, I like Bush and Foster the best because again, they are the only running back in town (HOU coaches don't trust Slaton anymore). But unlike Bush and Foster, Portis has produced at a high level before, and shanny tends to produce good fantasy backs. So I would prefer Portis, straight up, to all running backs after Grant probably. I value him similarly to Addai.

 

[wickster33]

I think the LT lovers are in for a surprise this year when the nail goes in the coffin, the guys legs are toast. I'm not going to sit here and say he hasn't appeared impressive because truth be told he has looked good, my conviction that he is done and the wheels have fallen off is too strong to let a couple of preseason games change that,

I'll be the contrarian here. fantasy success is all about scheme, talent, and opportunity. The Jets are a smashmouth team with a weak qb, so I'd say the scheme is great for LT. Talent is weaker, but he still managed to make the most of his runs yesterday. He was certainly as effective as Greene. He'll definitely get lots of opportunities. Rex Ryan has a huge ego, and he wants the world to know how right he is about LT. If you're watching Hard Knocks, you know that he'll keep getting lots of touches behind that great Jets o-line.I think he'll be a great flex play at a very affordable price.