Project-a Guy Jayson Werth, OF NATS (1 Viewer)

[Notorious T.R.E.]

In deference to the aged Eephus, we'll go with Jayson Werth next. Werth left the Phillies this off-season for BOATLOADS and Washington D.C. He shined in Philadelphia, especially at home where he had a 1.016 OPS, versus .829 away last year (the split was much more palatable in 09). How will Jayson do without the home cooking in DC?

2010:

652 PA, 27 HR, 85 RBI, 106 R, 13 SB, 296 AVG, 388 OBP

Bill James Projection:

644 PA, 28 HR, 91 RBI, 98 R, 14 SB, 275 AVG, 375 OBP

TRE Projection:

610 PA, 24 HR, 95 RBI, 86 R, 17 SB, 270 AVG, 380 OBP

I think he'll hit a few less homers, but he may get more RBI (just .186 with RISP last year) and be driven in less with a weaker back half of the order. His average will trend back toward his career AVG, but the OBP will stay up because he'll get pitched around more in DC.

DO IT

 

[scrumptrulescent]

75/25/85/.270/12

 

[Limp Ditka]

18 less games vs Nationals pitching.

18 more games vs Phillies pitching.

Look out below

625 PA, 21HR, 82 RBI, 85R, 10SB, .260, .365 OBP

 

[Eephus]

I've never been a big fan but I have to hand it to Werth for making himself into a very good and now very rich ballplayer. The fact he's done so without helping the Dodgers is even better.

His 2010 season was helped by an unusually high BABIP and much better success against RHP. It was the first year he ever hit better against RHP; previously he had 50 point platoon splits. It could be he's changed his approach against righties but I'd like to see him show good splits for two years running. He'll lose homers to the park but will gain RBI opportunities and a good number of walks.

600 PAs

.265/.368/.469

22 HRs

103 RBI

86 Rs

16 SBs

 

[Mr. Pickles]

635 PA, 24 HR, 82 RBI, 99 R, 10 SB, 276 AVG, 354 OBP

I hope this is okay with Michael Brown.

 

[Notorious T.R.E.]

635 PA, 24 HR, 82 RBI, 99 R, 10 SB, 276 AVG, 354 OBPI hope this is okay with Michael Brown.

Let's just say you're off to a bad start with MB.

 

[Mr. Pickles]

635 PA, 24 HR, 82 RBI, 99 R, 10 SB, 276 AVG, 354 OBPI hope this is okay with Michael Brown.

Let's just say you're off to a bad start with MB.

I've never seen anyone tweaked over a ho-hum status quo projection.

 

[RnR]

635 PA, 24 HR, 82 RBI, 99 R, 10 SB, 276 AVG, 354 OBP

I hope this is okay with Michael Brown.

Let's just say you're off to a bad start with MB.

I've never seen anyone tweaked over a ho-hum status quo projection.

If you don't have Snider dropping 40 bombs, you ain't tryin'...