Project or Die - Chris Davis, 1B/DH (1 Viewer)

[Notorious T.R.E.]

Chris Davis

Birthdate: 3/17/1986 Bats/Throws: L/R

Height/Weight: 6-3/232 Position: 1B

Chris Davis had a BREAKOUT year in 2012 with career highs in pretty much everything. He had 33 homers in 139 games along with 85 RBI as well as a respectable 270/326/501 triple slash. He'll be 27 in on March 17th! (let's get drunk!) So, he's still young and he has regular ABs coming again in Baltimore with probably less bouncing around (38 1B, 41 OF, 60 DH) between various positions. Yet he is getting drafted on avg at #96 overall. Could it be the 30% K rate or the .335 BABIP he had last year? Will he miss commiserating with fellow strikeout monster Mark Reynolds? Can he breakout even more than last year? (50 homers, I guess?)

What do you say? Project or die.

AVG, OBP, HR, R, RBI, SB

 

[Frostillicus]

Not buying it..235/.300/22hr/65r/70bi/1sb

 

[Eephus]

I don't think his HR/FB% is sustainable but he should still be able to hit 30 HR if he hits lefties well enough to stay in the lineup every day.His R/RBI numbers would be helped if he bats higher in the lineup than 6th. His 2012 was best by far out of the six hole but I suspect this is a small BABIP aided sample size..255/.320/.485, 31 HRs, 150 combined R & RBI, 2 steals

 

[RaveOriole]

I'm buying that he's better than Reynolds. .264/.329/44/92/101/1He should have a better year, and probably a career year.

 

[scoobus]

.242/.319/23 HRs/ 55 runs/ 70 rbis/ 1 SB

 

[Notorious T.R.E.]

Bill James has:286 AVG340 OBP31 HR79 R92 RBI2 SBHe's projecting a 3% decrease in K rate and a slight increase in walk rate. He also has a decent bump in babip to .348Rotowire has:26732330 HR78 R89 RBI1 SBI'll go with25532225 HR68 R77 RBI0 SBDavis had a lot of success against the fastball last year: 12.8 runs above average (wFB). Last year he had a big (6%) decrease in swinging at balls outside the zone as well. I expect pitchers to challenge with the fastball less and walk him a bit more and let the next Oriole in line take his cuts...which I guess might be JJ Hardy or maybe Machado.

 

[Eephus]

Bill James has:286 AVG340 OBP31 HR79 R92 RBI2 SBHe's projecting a 3% decrease in K rate and a slight increase in walk rate. He also has a decent bump in babip to .348

That's a pretty high BABIP projection for a guy with a relatively small MLB sample and not much speed down the line. His LD/GB/FB percentages aren't that much out of the ordinary, except for a very small IFFB number. I don't see how 4 infield flies last year can have much statistical significance.

 

[Notorious T.R.E.]

Bill James has:286 AVG340 OBP31 HR79 R92 RBI2 SBHe's projecting a 3% decrease in K rate and a slight increase in walk rate. He also has a decent bump in babip to .348

That's a pretty high BABIP projection for a guy with a relatively small MLB sample and not much speed down the line. His LD/GB/FB percentages aren't that much out of the ordinary, except for a very small IFFB number. I don't see how 4 infield flies last year can have much statistical significance.Yeah, I didn't really get that, which is why I mentioned it.

 

[cosjobs]

260/340/33/83/102/2The fact that he has quit swinging at balls out of the zone so much means continued improvemet