Although the formula has never been revealed, by studying the compensatory picks that have been awarded since they began in 1993, I've determined that the primary factor in the value of the picks awarded appears to be the average annual value of the contract the player signed with his new team, with an adjustment for playing time and a smaller adjustment for postseason honors. A simple method of determining for which qualifying free agents a team will be compensated is this -- for every player signed, cancel out a lost player of similar value. For example, if a team signs one qualifying player for $2 million per season and loses two qualifying players, one who got $1.8 million per season and one who got $4 million per season, the team will be compensated for the $4 million player.
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Here are the projected picks for 2007, along with the compensatory player, their average contract value, their games played, their games started and other notes --
THIRD ROUND
San Diego (Drew Brees, $10.0 million, 16 Games Played/16 Games Started, Pro Bowl)
San Francisco (Julian Peterson , $7.714 million, 16/16, Pro Bowl)
Indianapolis (Edgerrin James, $7.5 million, 16/16)
FOURTH ROUND
Oakland (Charles Woodson, $5.576 million, 16/16)
Pittsburgh (Chris Hope, $5.098 million, 16/16)
Atlanta (Kevin Shaffer, $5.143 million, 16/16)
Baltimore (Anthony Weaver, $5.3 million, 15/15)
FIFTH ROUND
Indianapolis (David Thornton, $4.45 million, 16/13)
Baltimore (Ma'ake Kemoeatu, $4.6 million, 16/14)
Pittsburgh (Antwaan Randle El, $4.464 million, 16/16)
New England (David Givens, $4.8 million, 5/5, placed on IR)
SIXTH ROUND
Indianapolis (Larry Tripplett, $3.607 million, 16/16)
Baltimore (Chester Taylor, $3.5 million, 15/15)
Cincinnati (Jon Kitna, $2.875 million, 16/16)
Baltimore (Will Demps, $2.28 million, 16/16)
New England (Tom Ashworth, $2.6 million, 16/6)
Seattle (Marquand Manuel, $2.0 million, 16/16)
New England (Adam Vinatieri, $2.4 million, 13 GP)
SEVENTH ROUND
Tampa Bay (Dexter Jackson, $1.85 million, 12/11)
San Diego (Justin Peelle, $1.5 million, 15/10)
Green Bay (Craig Nall, $1.423 million, 0/0)
Atlanta (Barry Stokes, $1.092 million, 11/11)
St. Louis (Rex Tucker, $1.217 million, 6/5, placed on IR)
San Diego (Reche Caldwell, $1.006 million, 16/14)
Tampa Bay (Jameel Cook, $1.020 million, 12/6)
Kansas City (Tony Richardson, $1.078 million, 9/7)
New England (Tim Dwight, $1.063 million, 9/2, placed on IR)
San Francisco (Anthony Clement, $750,000, 16/16)
St. Louis (Jamie Martin, $1.005 million, 16/0)
Jacksonville (Kenny Wright, $750,000, 16/9)
Minnesota (Raonall Smith, $755,000, 16/0)
Atlanta (Kevin McCadam, $765,000, 16/0)
