Lord Lucan
Footballguy
With Smith suspended for two games and the ruling on Marshall coming soon, one thing that might be worth pointing out is to be careful about using revised projections literally.
For instance, let's say you had Steve Smith projected for 1200 yards and 8 TDs. That's 75 ypg and 0.5 TDs per game, so at first glance the natural thing to do might seem to be to take off 150 yards and 1 TD for the two games missing, stick those figures into your cheat sheets/Draft Dominator, and take it from there. But you need to remember that Smith's value will be higher than that - because those numbers are the projected sum of just 14 games, and that means that in the other two games, you can start someone else who would otherwise have been on your bench and scored you zero points.
Let's suppose you start 3 receivers, and your number 4 WR in weeks 1 and 2 would project at around 50 ypg and 0.3 TDs per game. That means Smith's absence over the first two weeks is only going to cost you 50 yards (2 x 25, the difference between Smith's expected production and that of your #4 WR)) and 0.4 TDs (2 x 0.2). Thus in my opinion, in terms of where you draft him, it would be sensible based on the original projections to project Smith at 1150 yards and 7.6 TDs to accurately rate his value in comparison with other WRs.
I think some owners might over-react to this (and other) suspensions. Unless you think Smith is going to have an adverse reaction to the suspension, I would think very carefully before trading Smith away for a WR of even slightly lesser value.
For instance, let's say you had Steve Smith projected for 1200 yards and 8 TDs. That's 75 ypg and 0.5 TDs per game, so at first glance the natural thing to do might seem to be to take off 150 yards and 1 TD for the two games missing, stick those figures into your cheat sheets/Draft Dominator, and take it from there. But you need to remember that Smith's value will be higher than that - because those numbers are the projected sum of just 14 games, and that means that in the other two games, you can start someone else who would otherwise have been on your bench and scored you zero points.
Let's suppose you start 3 receivers, and your number 4 WR in weeks 1 and 2 would project at around 50 ypg and 0.3 TDs per game. That means Smith's absence over the first two weeks is only going to cost you 50 yards (2 x 25, the difference between Smith's expected production and that of your #4 WR)) and 0.4 TDs (2 x 0.2). Thus in my opinion, in terms of where you draft him, it would be sensible based on the original projections to project Smith at 1150 yards and 7.6 TDs to accurately rate his value in comparison with other WRs.
I think some owners might over-react to this (and other) suspensions. Unless you think Smith is going to have an adverse reaction to the suspension, I would think very carefully before trading Smith away for a WR of even slightly lesser value.
I just try to remember who's suspended and bump them down to the bottom of the original tier, sometimes to the next tier.
