I know it'd be a miracle if someone knew this, but...
Does anyone have any info on the standard deviations for individual player projections? Say, for FBG specifically. Obviously it's going to vary a lot based on scoring, but one could determine the numbers based on standard scoring.
I imagine the std dev for individual players would be very high, but with that data one could estimate the std dev for an entire roster (however large your particular rosters are) and it should be a little more reasonable. From there you could translate a projected score into a projected percent-chance-of-victory.
Once you had that you could start making much more sophisticated guesses at final standings, etc. It would be pretty interesting/powerful info to have available.
Does anyone have any info on the standard deviations for individual player projections? Say, for FBG specifically. Obviously it's going to vary a lot based on scoring, but one could determine the numbers based on standard scoring.
I imagine the std dev for individual players would be very high, but with that data one could estimate the std dev for an entire roster (however large your particular rosters are) and it should be a little more reasonable. From there you could translate a projected score into a projected percent-chance-of-victory.
Once you had that you could start making much more sophisticated guesses at final standings, etc. It would be pretty interesting/powerful info to have available.
