Projections now posted (1 Viewer)

[theedge]

Thanks for the work Unlucky! I always appreciate the fact that you will put your projections out for us all to use!!!!!!

 

[fruity pebbles]

270 carries for Dom Davis. Having a hard time seeing that.

 

[Unlucky]

A couple of things to consider:

1. For the most part, I don't project injuries. So, when you look at how many RBs hit 1000 yds, how many WRs hit 1000 yds, and such, I project more than will actually happen. So, the more important thing to look at is where the players are ranked.

2. A lot of players are bunched pretty closely. A few yards or TDs here or there really shuffles things.

 

[Unlucky]

Didn't step out onto many limbs. Maybe I did?

Aaron Brooks

With Brooks I think ya not only stepped out on the limb but then sawed it off behind ya! lol

I thought so too when I looked at the rankings. That's the reason I do the projections - I don't compare players to each other, but rather do each team, and see where the players fall.For Brooks, I have: 3936 yds, 25 TDs, 175 rush with 2 TDs. That's not crazy, IMO. Somehow, that ends up being 2nd. However, note that the 5 QBs right behind him are all within about 12 fantasy points, so Brooks could have easily been #6 or #7 and nobody would think I'm crazy.

 

[Unlucky]

The thing that is still a bit wacky is the fact that Boldin/Fitz make up for about 55-60% of the teams Receptions and Yards, but they make up for like 82% of the TDs. I would have to imagine other players will combine to catch more than 4 TDs this season.

In 2005, the other ARZ players caught 4 TD passes, while Boldin an Fitz caught 17. Perhaps 4 is a little low, but it's not hard to imagine when it happened last season.

 

[Unlucky]

Not that it has much FF impact, but you are on crack if you think JP Losman is only going to throw 40-some passes this year.Also, what's up with Trent Green falling off the face of the earth? He goes from about a perrenial top 5 to one of the worst FF QBs in the league?

I think Losman sucks. Holcomb is the better QB, IMO. Obviously, if the coaches feel differently, then my numbers will be way off. Trent Green: not top 5 last year. Al Saunders and Vermeil are gone. I see a worse offense with even less passing than last season.

 

[code]

 

[Unlucky]

I appreciate your effort and these look nice and all. But predicting an injury to Rex Grossman by the 2nd or 3rd game is pretty ballsy. And I assume you are predicting an injury to D. Foster as well or do you really believe Deangelo will get that many carries? Did you predict an injury to Volek too or do you think Young will take over that soon?

I can't figure out why everyone loves Grossman. Career totals: 8 games, 102 for 195, 53.8%, 1303 yds, 6.7 YPA, 4 TDs, 6 INTs. WOW! He's Great! Griese: 63.1 career comp%, 7.1 YPA, 103 TDs to 78 INTs.Not only has Grossman played just 8 games in 3 years, but his numbers suck and he's shown me nothing to think he's a good QB. Griese has proven to be a solid QB in the NFL. Griese is the better QB, IMO.I do see a bit of a RBBC in Carolina, or an injury to Foster. Foster can't handle 300 carries. I think Young takes over at some point this year. TEN is awful. Young will play, and Volek isn't good.

 

[Unlucky]

270 carries for Dom Davis. Having a hard time seeing that.

I'm starting to agree with you.

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

Not that it has much FF impact, but you are on crack if you think JP Losman is only going to throw 40-some passes this year.Also, what's up with Trent Green falling off the face of the earth? He goes from about a perrenial top 5 to one of the worst FF QBs in the league?

I think Losman sucks. Holcomb is the better QB, IMO. Obviously, if the coaches feel differently, then my numbers will be way off. Trent Green: not top 5 last year. Al Saunders and Vermeil are gone. I see a worse offense with even less passing than last season.

Yeah, he fell all the way to 6, so that makes 4 seasons in a row in the top 6. Barring injury the guy is just too good to fall that far. And, a worse offense could easily mean more passing for Green, if they are playing catch-up. A worse offense hurts the running game more, IMO.As for Losman, you know he's going to "win" the starting job. It will take more than week 1 to bench him, so if he plays 2 games and gets benched, and never sees the field again he'd beat those numbers. And, that would never happen. Even if he played horrible in week 1 (0TDs 5INTs) and got benched he'd still see some action later in the season. Holcomb is no super-star, and by the sounds of things from camp he may have lost a bit on his throws.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Not that it has much FF impact, but you are on crack if you think JP Losman is only going to throw 40-some passes this year.

Also, what's up with Trent Green falling off the face of the earth? He goes from about a perrenial top 5 to one of the worst FF QBs in the league?

I think Losman sucks. Nall is the better QB, IMO. Obviously, if the coaches feel differently, then my numbers will be way off. Trent Green: not top 5 last year. Al Saunders and Vermeil are gone. I see a worse offense with even less passing than last season.

Fixed

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

Not that it has much FF impact, but you are on crack if you think JP Losman is only going to throw 40-some passes this year.

Also, what's up with Trent Green falling off the face of the earth? He goes from about a perrenial top 5 to one of the worst FF QBs in the league?

I think Losman sucks. Nall is the better QB, IMO. Obviously, if the coaches feel differently, then my numbers will be way off. Trent Green: not top 5 last year. Al Saunders and Vermeil are gone. I see a worse offense with even less passing than last season.

Fixed

Well... Nall has almost no shot at starting with missing all this practice time with the hammy injury... He better be back in practice next week if he wants a shot.

 

[fatness]

Big gap between Ronnie Brown and Cadillac Williams. Figuring on an injury to Williams?

Not so high on McNabb and Plummer.

Joe Horn well above Donte Stallworth.

Those aren't disagreements so much as noting things that jump out at me. Thanks for doing these.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Not that it has much FF impact, but you are on crack if you think JP Losman is only going to throw 40-some passes this year.

Also, what's up with Trent Green falling off the face of the earth? He goes from about a perrenial top 5 to one of the worst FF QBs in the league?

I think Losman sucks. Nall is the better QB, IMO. Obviously, if the coaches feel differently, then my numbers will be way off. Trent Green: not top 5 last year. Al Saunders and Vermeil are gone. I see a worse offense with even less passing than last season.

Fixed

Well... Nall has almost no shot at starting with missing all this practice time with the hammy injury... He better be back in practice next week if he wants a shot.

Yeah, I know. Sucks.

 

[The Mechanic]

Hey Unlucky, not saying I agree with all your projections and these are another set of projections to add to others so as I can become totally confused just before draft day.

Well appreciated and I'll cross referance your proj's with others again over the next week or so just to see how many of us think along the same lines about certain Players.

Good Work and TKS again

 

[Kleck.]

Always nice to look at.

 

[David Yudkin]

We all could find isolated projections to debate over, but I will limit mine to just Michael Vick.

He's projected for career passing bests in yardage and TD (over 3,000 passing yards and almost 20 TD) which is 600 yards and 4 TD more than last year, yet his ranking is only as the QB 9. IMO, if he actually hits those levels he's a Top 5 QB especially given that this year's crop of QB seems to be a notch below other seasons.

To counteract Vick's uptick in passing numbers, Unlucky dramatically reduced Vick's rushing totals (20-30 fewer fantasy points rushing compared to Vick's other seasons). Maybe it turns out that way, but I don't see his rushing totals dropping that much.

 

[djjosee]

 

[EBF]

Owens as the #1 WR and Bledsoe as the #12 QB? I suppose it's possible, but if TO flourishes then I suspect Drew will also have a good season.

 

[JAMMIN]

Your projections are usually pretty accurate. I always appreciate your effort.

 

[JAMMIN]

Suprised to see so much love for Tatum Bell and no love Julius Jones.