Proof that FF is more about luck than anything else (1 Viewer)

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

One of the teams is running away with our league by combining by far the highest offense with the 2nd lowest scored against. He always seems to have one of the easiest schedules so I thought I'd see how the 3 worst teams (3-9, 4-8, 5-7) would have faired against the schedule he played. Those teams ended up 6-6, 7-5, and 8-3-1. Instead of being out of the playoffs, all three would be be seeds 4-6.I'm curious to see how common this is. So if you have a few free minutes, compare your worst teams to the best teams schedule and let us know how much, if any, things would be different.

That's why h2h adds a lot of luck into a game that already has a fair amount of it. That's not good or bad. It just is. If you enjoy playing a game that relies a great amount of luck to determine a champion, go for h2h. If you want a game that relies on a good (as opposed to great) amount of luck, play total points. Both can be fun. H2h has drama that total points doesn't have, but winning a total points title feels like winning a marathon. Winning a h2h title feels good, but you know that Lady Luck was your co-captain. I think a fantasy football season is complete if you participate in at least one h2h league, one total points league and one auction league. Maybe a dynasty, too. Why not enjoy what all the different formats have to offer?

 

[Das Boot]

Does the best team in each game win every week in the NFL?

 

[King of the Wolfies]

Maybe my league is different for some reason but I ran all three years I've been in it, and the same thing kept happening. The worst 3 teams always had better records if they play the schedules of the top teams. Now I'd didnt expect it to be 100% but I was hoping more people would do the same in their league and let the rest of us know how common this was.

We are all obcessed with getting the most points each week, whereas it really appears that isnt really all that necessary if you have the scheduling gods on your side. I think people missed the line in my original post where the 3 worst teams would all be playoff teams. Now the top team would still be the top team because he's destroying everyone this year, and I wasn't saying he wouldnt be. But it seems too frequent that top scoring teams don't make the playoffs and proportionally, too many bad teams do make them. I was hoping to get more data from other leagues to see if this was true, or just a FF myth.

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

Does the best team in each game win every week in the NFL?

Apples and oranges. No matter how hard we try to emulate the NFL, it will never work. NFL teams have defenses that bear responsibility for the other team scoring. A fantasy owner has absolutely no control over the opposing team. You're just comparing one set of scores against another and awarding a "victory" to the one with more points. Repeat 15 more times and we crown a "champion."A better comparison would be golf. You only control what you do, but are helpless to do anything about the opponent. Then you compare scores. And clearly, golf uses more of a "total points" format. The best player over the course of four contests in four days wins. They don't have 32 h2h "games" on Thursday and keep whittling it down from there. Of course, football is more exciting than golf, and that's where the fun of h2h comes in. Both are good, but "emulating the NFL" shouldn't be the primary goal in fantasy football. The games are too different.

 

[Mario Kart]

Again, fantasy football and real football (NFL) should follow the same schedule. The most points in any given week by any team will earn a 31-0 record for that week. Same thing in our game. This would eliminate all of the luck of which the OP spoke of. BRILLIANT!!

 

[Knight who says Ni]

John Milton said that "Luck is the residue of design."

I would like to think that my subpar year is due to poor luck, but I can't help but think back to draft day, with me sitting at 3.06, staring at both TO and Randy Moss on the board and finally deciding on Moss. The next owner to draft took TO and is he currently poised to make the playoffs whereas I need a miracle. I also think about my first round decision to take Ronnie Brown, against my better judgement, over Steve Jackson. I took Ronnie because he was the sexy, overhyped pick and I bought the hype, and I took Moss because I had TO last year and he burned me pretty bad - so I let personal bias and hype overrule my better judgement and I am paying for it. Luck always plays its part, but if you are well prepared you tend to make your own luck.

As far as head-to-head matchups vs. straight-up points, I did both last year and head-to-head is by far the most enjoyable for me. You establish rivalries - some long-lasting - and hotly contested division matchups, and if you are doing poorly then you can still play spoiler to playoff hopefuls. In my points-only league last year, the players who began to drop off just completely lost interest because there was no hope in catching up. With head-to-head, you have a much better shot at making the playoffs - and if the goal is keeping owners interested and engaged, then I believe it is preferable to make it such that as many teams as possible have a chance to make the playoffs.

Ni

 

[painkiller]

Why not do both?

In our league we charge for each add/trade transaction, then at the end of the season, the team with the highest points gets the pot. It's usually about twice as much as the entry fee.

We play H2H for the championship (with playoffs)

 

[AcerFC]

OK, I went back and did what you asked us to do. Take the bottom 3 in the league and put them in the top 2 teams schedules to see what the difference would be. Here is the outcome:

Top 2 Teams

Hang Loose- 10-2

The Fingerbangers- 9-3

Bottom 3 Teams

The Raiders- 4-8

AcerFC- 2-10

Jake Likes Pie- 1-11

Now I took all 3 teams that were at the bottom and gave them the Fingerbangers schedule and here is how it ended up:

The Raiders- 4-7

AcerFC- 3-8

Jake Likes Pie- 3-8

The reason that it doesnt add up to 12 is because each of the teams played the top 2 teams and you cant count that game

Then I gave them Hang Looses schedule and here is what happened:

The Raiders- 4-7

AcerFC- 2-9

Jake Likes Pie- 3-8

I guess what this means in my league is that teams that suck, suck and teams that are good win when they are supposed to. Now The Bangers took a bad loss last week losing by 4 to the high points but that stuff is to be expected. Your hypothesis did not work in relation to my league. Would be inetersted to see which outcome happens more- your league or my league

 

[Gravity]

If anyone here understands a lick of math, I have a quick question.If you averaged every FFL in the world, which team would you expect to have the least points scored against them, the highest scoring team or the lowest scoring team?By the way, here is a hint: Teams can't play themselves.

Ok, I'm not a math wizard but this makes absolute sense. The top team is generating all those Points Against totals, while no other team is generating high enough numbers against him.

 

[theberg11]

Head to Head fantasy football is 100% luck and I will never play it again.

I was 12-2 leading my 12 team redraft league in points going into the first round. My starters:

Brees, LT, Tatum, Holt, Fitz, Cotchery, Kaeding, Pats D

In past years I have been the lucky team to knock out the best team in my league, and I can't honestly remember once that the best team actually won the championship... so I ask all head-to-head adorers... when are you going to wake up and realize that it is stupid. Convince me why I should continue to play when I can dominate all season only to have one bad week that happens to be week 15 and now be out. Don't tell me that's what can happen to a team in the real games, because fantasy is not real.

 

[Kleck]

Minimal anecdotal evidence = proof?

I'll pass.

If stuff like this bothers you that much, I suggest switching to double headers each week. We use them in my home league and it makes a big difference.

http://football6.myfantasyleague.com/2006/home/12230

 

[JohnnyU]

Head to Head fantasy football is 100% luck and I will never play it again. I was 12-2 leading my 12 team redraft league in points going into the first round. My starters:Brees, LT, Tatum, Holt, Fitz, Cotchery, Kaeding, Pats DIn past years I have been the lucky team to knock out the best team in my league, and I can't honestly remember once that the best team actually won the championship... so I ask all head-to-head adorers... when are you going to wake up and realize that it is stupid. Convince me why I should continue to play when I can dominate all season only to have one bad week that happens to be week 15 and now be out. Don't tell me that's what can happen to a team in the real games, because fantasy is not real.

I never use this, but here it goes. Pts leagues are for roto baseball, where you play for categories. In football that doesn't apply, and you don't want 3/4 of your league to quit trying after 1 team runs away with the points title after 9 or 10 weeks.

 

[fsufan]

Head to Head fantasy football is 100% luck and I will never play it again. I was 12-2 leading my 12 team redraft league in points going into the first round. My starters:Brees, LT, Tatum, Holt, Fitz, Cotchery, Kaeding, Pats DIn past years I have been the lucky team to knock out the best team in my league, and I can't honestly remember once that the best team actually won the championship... so I ask all head-to-head adorers... when are you going to wake up and realize that it is stupid. Convince me why I should continue to play when I can dominate all season only to have one bad week that happens to be week 15 and now be out. Don't tell me that's what can happen to a team in the real games, because fantasy is not real.

i went 12-1 and most point scored with this starting line up palmerLTBell(or green or henry played match ups)holtdriverd-jaxI only got 13 PTs from holt,driver,bell and gates this week. lucky I am only down 5 because of LT. I have Palmer but he has Harrison and wayne.I have always said the FF playoffs are 100% luck.you have to except FF is luck or do not play