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Props to Waldman (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Kuz
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Matt Waldman
Footballguy
Thank you.
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
Chiming in to add thanks and kudos -- Waldman, you put a lot of thought into these updates, not just giving us an obvious list reflective of stats, but one that reflects the not-so-obvious performance and situational influences. Definitely a keystone of weekly content.
I do have a question, which I am sure you have answered before. Is your list meant to be descending in value? e.g. the players at the top of the upgrade list are better upgrades than the ones near the end, and conversely, the guys at the top of the downgrade list are bigger downgrades than the ones at the bottom?
I realize that this is often a hard conceit to maintain, and that there are other variables that are involved, some of them in this week's edition (such as a good short term/single week pickup vs long term/mutliweek pickup).
There have been some upgrades/downgrades this year that make me think that this may not be just a simple descending value list, whether they might be errors (such as referring to two QBs below the list from Tannehill when there is only one) or relative ranking I don't understand (given relative rankings, hard to see Givens is that much more of a worthy pick-up than Hixon or Rice).
Thanks in advance.
I do have a question, which I am sure you have answered before. Is your list meant to be descending in value? e.g. the players at the top of the upgrade list are better upgrades than the ones near the end, and conversely, the guys at the top of the downgrade list are bigger downgrades than the ones at the bottom?
I realize that this is often a hard conceit to maintain, and that there are other variables that are involved, some of them in this week's edition (such as a good short term/single week pickup vs long term/mutliweek pickup).
There have been some upgrades/downgrades this year that make me think that this may not be just a simple descending value list, whether they might be errors (such as referring to two QBs below the list from Tannehill when there is only one) or relative ranking I don't understand (given relative rankings, hard to see Givens is that much more of a worthy pick-up than Hixon or Rice).
Thanks in advance.
DynastyLord
Footballguy
Looks to me like they're in alphabetical order
Islanders rule
Footballguy
I just don't understand how you upgrade/downgrade players on one single game? I see no value in the report. Anybody can upgrade someone with a good game, and downgrade someone with a bad gane the previous week. I jus don't get it?
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
I don't question Waldman's methodology (though if he's in a sharing mood, would love to hear it.) Followed his advice for years when he was @ FFT, best hire Joe ever made IMO. Dude watches a ton of tape and spins a good yarn.
Matt Waldman
Footballguy
My link
Here's a link that goes towards explaining how this process works in more detail. I need sleep so if this doesn't make sense, my apologies.
The Waiver Wire report is done by order of preference based on bidding scenarios. The upgrade/downgrade report isn't based on a single game as much as it's that game factored into previous weeks and a rough look at the weeks ahead in terms of schedule. I'm looking at David Dodds and Bob Henry's Top 250-Forward, which is ranking of players looking forward.
Let's take Julio Jones as an example. This week he had what I'd consider a sub par game for a fantasy WR1. The Top 250-Forward has White and Jones as its 2nd and 3rd receivers. Watching this game and factoring other games I've watched of Jones I see a player that deserves a downgrade from that Top 250 ranking based on his frequent bracket coverage, the Falcons offense, and Ryan's strengths and weaknesses as a passer. Jones is a great talent and he will have some weeks that are bigger than White. However, I also see that White has only had two games with fewer than 70 yards and those games still amounted to 9 catches for 113 yards. Jones had three down weeks thus far and total 9 catches for 107 yards in that trio of games. Since White doesn't see as much bracket coverage, he tends to be Ryan's safety blanket on a lot of back side plays or designed rolls or plays to the left that Jones isn't, and he's still a more reliable pass catcher on difficult throws, I think White is statistically and non-statistically a better fantasy player moving forward. Therefore I recommend a downgrade of Jones and still see him as a low-end WR1 but more along the lines of Andre Johnson's current ranking because both have similar statistical patterns and neither are the primary weapons on their team. Sometimes neither are even the secondary weapon despite the fact that they are often the weapons with the greatest upside. Whether Dodds and Henry choose to move a player up or down according to my insights is their choice, but my report is a preliminary point for their analysis for the rest of the week.
Think of it as rough data that helps them do more research and either agree or disagree as more information is acquired. That's how I recommend you seeing it.
Another example, Peyton Manning could have thrown for 100 yards, 1 touchdown, and five interceptions tonight. However, if four of those picks were tipped passes by receivers that should have been caught and I know that Manning has 300-yard, multiple touchdown games in all but one contest heading into this weekend, then I'm not downgrading him. I explain that type of thing to readers.
I wish I could answer you about the player order that appears in the final report and why it's alphabetical. I'll have an answer for you later on that. I need to get some sleep. Hopefully this portion begins to answer some q's.
Here's a link that goes towards explaining how this process works in more detail. I need sleep so if this doesn't make sense, my apologies.
The Waiver Wire report is done by order of preference based on bidding scenarios. The upgrade/downgrade report isn't based on a single game as much as it's that game factored into previous weeks and a rough look at the weeks ahead in terms of schedule. I'm looking at David Dodds and Bob Henry's Top 250-Forward, which is ranking of players looking forward.
Let's take Julio Jones as an example. This week he had what I'd consider a sub par game for a fantasy WR1. The Top 250-Forward has White and Jones as its 2nd and 3rd receivers. Watching this game and factoring other games I've watched of Jones I see a player that deserves a downgrade from that Top 250 ranking based on his frequent bracket coverage, the Falcons offense, and Ryan's strengths and weaknesses as a passer. Jones is a great talent and he will have some weeks that are bigger than White. However, I also see that White has only had two games with fewer than 70 yards and those games still amounted to 9 catches for 113 yards. Jones had three down weeks thus far and total 9 catches for 107 yards in that trio of games. Since White doesn't see as much bracket coverage, he tends to be Ryan's safety blanket on a lot of back side plays or designed rolls or plays to the left that Jones isn't, and he's still a more reliable pass catcher on difficult throws, I think White is statistically and non-statistically a better fantasy player moving forward. Therefore I recommend a downgrade of Jones and still see him as a low-end WR1 but more along the lines of Andre Johnson's current ranking because both have similar statistical patterns and neither are the primary weapons on their team. Sometimes neither are even the secondary weapon despite the fact that they are often the weapons with the greatest upside. Whether Dodds and Henry choose to move a player up or down according to my insights is their choice, but my report is a preliminary point for their analysis for the rest of the week.
Think of it as rough data that helps them do more research and either agree or disagree as more information is acquired. That's how I recommend you seeing it.
Another example, Peyton Manning could have thrown for 100 yards, 1 touchdown, and five interceptions tonight. However, if four of those picks were tipped passes by receivers that should have been caught and I know that Manning has 300-yard, multiple touchdown games in all but one contest heading into this weekend, then I'm not downgrading him. I explain that type of thing to readers.
I wish I could answer you about the player order that appears in the final report and why it's alphabetical. I'll have an answer for you later on that. I need to get some sleep. Hopefully this portion begins to answer some q's.
