Anarchy99
Footballguy
Here is a list of all of the QB draft in the first round from 2009-2016 (8 years). There is a reason I picked those years (more on this later). There were 22 QB taken as first round picks in that time. To refresh people's memories . . .
2009 Matt Stafford (1)
2009 Mark Sanchez (5) - Last played in 2018
2009 Josh Freeman (17) - Last played in 2015
2010 Sam Bradford (1) - Last played in 2018
2010 Tim Tebow (25) - Last played in 2012
2011 Cam Newton (1)
2011 Jake Locker (8) - Last played in 2014
2011 Blaine Gabbert (10)
2011 Christian Ponder (12) - Last played in 2014
2012 Andrew Luck (1) - Last played in 2018
2012 Robert Griffin III (2)
2012 Ryan Tannehill (8)
2012 Brandon Weeden (22) - Last played in 2018
2013 E.J. Manual (16) - Last played in 2017
2014 Blake Bortles (3) - Last played in 2019
2014 Johnny Manziel (22) - Last played in 2015
2014 Teddy Bridgewater (32)
2015 Jameis Winston (1)
2015 Marcus Mariota (2)
2016 Jared Goff (1)
2016 Carson Wentz (2)
2016 Paxton Lynch (26) - Last played in 2017
Here is a list of all the QB selected in the 2nd round in those same years (8 players):
2009 Pat White (44) - Last played 2009
2010 Jimmy Clausen (48) - Last played in 2015
2011 Andy Dalton (35)
2011 Colin Kaepernick (36) - Last played in 2016
2012 Brock Osweiler (57) - Last played in 2018
2013 Geno Smith (39)
2014 Jimmy Garoppolo (62)
2016 Christian Hackenberg (51) - Never played in an NFL game
So what's the point? What do all of these players have in common? NONE of them are still on the team that drafted them. Of thee 30 players listed, 16 of them did not take a snap in the 2020 season or are out of the league entirely. That's 53% of them.
That's not to say that all of these guys were busts. There are some very good players on the list. But as far as teams investing top draft capital to get a QB to lead them to a SB title, they have accounted for 0 rings and 3 SB losses (Netwon, Goff, Garoppolo). Who knows how to count Wentz, as his team won a SB but he was injured and missed the end of the season and the playoffs.
I get that it's a QB driven league and if you don't have one your team isn't going anywhere. I don't know if the after-the-fact outcomes show anything or if this weird quirky patch of teams moving on from the QB they drafted means much at all.
If we extend things into the 2017 draft . . .
2017
Mitchell Trubisky (2)
Patrick Mahomes (10)
Deshawn Watson (12)
DeShone Kizer (52) - Last played in 2018
Obviously Mahomes isn't going anywhere, but Trubisky is likely going to be moved and there's lots of talk of Watson getting traded. That would make Mahomes the only QB drafted in the 1st or 2nd rounds still on his original team across 9 drafts out of 34 drafted quarterbacks. I find that a bit shocking.
What, if anything, does this tell us? That there was a stretch of some mediocre QB coming out in the draft? That teams will draft QB way earlier than they should? That bad teams make bad decisions? That bad teams are still bad even with a young QB? That teams should slow their roll when it comes to drafting a QB early?
Given that there could be 5 QB drafted in the first round in a few weeks, it made me wonder if taking one of the back end ones is really all that great a draft strategy (or even one of the earlier ones as well). On the first list of 30 first round draft picks selected in the first round, 14 were selected in the Top 10. Of those, there were 11 that probably would be considered major disappointments and under performers (although there is always a chance they get a chance to turn things around now being on a different team).
What do people think this means (if anything)? Or maybe it's all just a fluke?
2009 Matt Stafford (1)
2009 Mark Sanchez (5) - Last played in 2018
2009 Josh Freeman (17) - Last played in 2015
2010 Sam Bradford (1) - Last played in 2018
2010 Tim Tebow (25) - Last played in 2012
2011 Cam Newton (1)
2011 Jake Locker (8) - Last played in 2014
2011 Blaine Gabbert (10)
2011 Christian Ponder (12) - Last played in 2014
2012 Andrew Luck (1) - Last played in 2018
2012 Robert Griffin III (2)
2012 Ryan Tannehill (8)
2012 Brandon Weeden (22) - Last played in 2018
2013 E.J. Manual (16) - Last played in 2017
2014 Blake Bortles (3) - Last played in 2019
2014 Johnny Manziel (22) - Last played in 2015
2014 Teddy Bridgewater (32)
2015 Jameis Winston (1)
2015 Marcus Mariota (2)
2016 Jared Goff (1)
2016 Carson Wentz (2)
2016 Paxton Lynch (26) - Last played in 2017
Here is a list of all the QB selected in the 2nd round in those same years (8 players):
2009 Pat White (44) - Last played 2009
2010 Jimmy Clausen (48) - Last played in 2015
2011 Andy Dalton (35)
2011 Colin Kaepernick (36) - Last played in 2016
2012 Brock Osweiler (57) - Last played in 2018
2013 Geno Smith (39)
2014 Jimmy Garoppolo (62)
2016 Christian Hackenberg (51) - Never played in an NFL game
So what's the point? What do all of these players have in common? NONE of them are still on the team that drafted them. Of thee 30 players listed, 16 of them did not take a snap in the 2020 season or are out of the league entirely. That's 53% of them.
That's not to say that all of these guys were busts. There are some very good players on the list. But as far as teams investing top draft capital to get a QB to lead them to a SB title, they have accounted for 0 rings and 3 SB losses (Netwon, Goff, Garoppolo). Who knows how to count Wentz, as his team won a SB but he was injured and missed the end of the season and the playoffs.
I get that it's a QB driven league and if you don't have one your team isn't going anywhere. I don't know if the after-the-fact outcomes show anything or if this weird quirky patch of teams moving on from the QB they drafted means much at all.
If we extend things into the 2017 draft . . .
2017
Mitchell Trubisky (2)
Patrick Mahomes (10)
Deshawn Watson (12)
DeShone Kizer (52) - Last played in 2018
Obviously Mahomes isn't going anywhere, but Trubisky is likely going to be moved and there's lots of talk of Watson getting traded. That would make Mahomes the only QB drafted in the 1st or 2nd rounds still on his original team across 9 drafts out of 34 drafted quarterbacks. I find that a bit shocking.
What, if anything, does this tell us? That there was a stretch of some mediocre QB coming out in the draft? That teams will draft QB way earlier than they should? That bad teams make bad decisions? That bad teams are still bad even with a young QB? That teams should slow their roll when it comes to drafting a QB early?
Given that there could be 5 QB drafted in the first round in a few weeks, it made me wonder if taking one of the back end ones is really all that great a draft strategy (or even one of the earlier ones as well). On the first list of 30 first round draft picks selected in the first round, 14 were selected in the Top 10. Of those, there were 11 that probably would be considered major disappointments and under performers (although there is always a chance they get a chance to turn things around now being on a different team).
What do people think this means (if anything)? Or maybe it's all just a fluke?