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QB Josh Allen, BUF (4 Viewers)

Bills are going to wreck this guy, right? I really like Josh, but trading AJ seems dumb. Great to get something for him, but at this point they need bodies behind that oline that aren't named Josh Allen. 
Max protect every pass play.  This kid will be great.  He just needs more than 1.0 seconds per play to prove it.

 
Josh Allen - QB -  Bills

ESPN's Chris Mortensen reports Josh Allen has been named the Bills' Week 2 starter against the Chargers.

Coach Sean McDermott really didn't have a choice. Nathan Peterman has been an unmitigated disaster in two starts, throwing five interceptions in one half against the Chargers last year before completely face-planting Week 1 against the Ravens. Peterman was seeing ghosts before he was yanked in the third quarter. Allen led a field goal drive versus Baltimore while completing 6-of-15 passes for 74 yards. The Chargers are on the D/ST streaming radar for Sunday.

Related: Nathan Peterman

Source: Chris Mortensen on Twitter 

Sep 12 - 10:25 AM
 
Bills are going to wreck this guy, right? I really like Josh, but trading AJ seems dumb. Great to get something for him, but at this point they need bodies behind that oline that aren't named Josh Allen. 
I don't believe in QB's being wrecked.  For every example of rookies failing there are others who have taken their lumps and succeed.  If Allen fails it's because he's not good and vice versa.  Allen is bigger and stronger than Peterman and used to running for his life at Wyoming. The line is terrible.  If you had a veteran QB on the roster like McCown or Bridgewater then it would make the transition easier.  They took the last QB available in free agency in McCarron and somehow got a 5th round pick for him.  It's going to be a long year in Buffalo but let the kid grow and then figure out where you want to allocate that $80m in cap space in March to help him.

 
I don't believe in QB's being wrecked.  For every example of rookies failing there are others who have taken their lumps and succeed.  If Allen fails it's because he's not good and vice versa.  Allen is bigger and stronger than Peterman and used to running for his life at Wyoming. The line is terrible.  If you had a veteran QB on the roster like McCown or Bridgewater then it would make the transition easier.  They took the last QB available in free agency in McCarron and somehow got a 5th round pick for him.  It's going to be a long year in Buffalo but let the kid grow and then figure out where you want to allocate that $80m in cap space in March to help him.
I can buy that. Maybe someone like David Carr was just destined to be a bust and would never be a good NFL QB, but I always wondered what effect his 76 sack season had on his development. That was a terrible QB class though. Josh McCown had the best career out of all of them. 

 
I don't believe in QB's being wrecked.  For every example of rookies failing there are others who have taken their lumps and succeed.  If Allen fails it's because he's not good and vice versa.  Allen is bigger and stronger than Peterman and used to running for his life at Wyoming. The line is terrible.  If you had a veteran QB on the roster like McCown or Bridgewater then it would make the transition easier.  They took the last QB available in free agency in McCarron and somehow got a 5th round pick for him.  It's going to be a long year in Buffalo but let the kid grow and then figure out where you want to allocate that $80m in cap space in March to help him.
You don’t think the skins wrecked RG lll ?

 
KickinT said:
You don’t think the skins wrecked RG lll ?
I think the NFL ultimately catches up to running quarterbacks.  He was also often injured.

Not saying he's a HOF QB, but there were a handful who had rough first years. 

 
Daboll: Allen's footwork, eye control, timing all improving

...Brian Daboll was asked to assess his rookie QB’s play Monday when he met with the media.

“There were obviously some good things for him,” he said. “[He] was good with his reads, for the most part, and made some loose plays with his feet. [There are] a lot of things to still clean up on. I think his footwork is getting better, his eye control and getting the ball out on time is getting better, but there are some good examples, like there were last week, of some things we need to clean up. [It will] continue to be a work in progress. Make sure we don’t give him too much week to week to improve on, just a couple of things. The ball was out of our hands three times in some form or fashion, so we need to make sure we do a better job with that. [He] did a good job with leading his team and controlling the game we needed to control it.”

...He was arguably the Bills’ best offensive player all day, decisive, accurate, and athletic.  His first half was nearly flawless, if it weren’t for four passes that could have been caught - two of which were flat-out dropped. 
Monday’s Musing, NFL Week 3: Josh Allen Riseth

...I was highly critical of Allen, saying he was overrated and overhyped, and that physical attributes alone are not the recipe for success. His inconsistencies, his level of competition, his ‘gunslinger’ mentality, there were many more checks in the ‘cons’ column at the end of the day. So what he didn’t have a great supporting cast. So what he played in unsavory climate conditions. He had bust written all over him, and everyone knew it. Or so we were being led to believe.

...When he was on, it was a thing of beauty. You could envision him winning a league MVP. And when he was off, it was scary. You couldn’t even conceive him holding a clipboard in the CFL. 

I lost followers for defending what I saw. I questioned myself. It was a moment in this industry where I had to tune out the background noise and listen to my own convictions. I was part relieved, and part happy for Allen when Buffalo invested the seventh overall pick on him. It was a safe place. The third quarterback taken, going to Siberia of the NFL, where there were little to no expectations out of the gate.

We don’t need to fill in all of the blanks here. You should have a general idea of what has transpired since April. ...The kid can ball. And I tried to warn you.
I am still trying to process what he did in Minnesota because I thought he was going to take a lot of time before we'd see anything like that sort of performance but I bet he has the attention of more people now.

 
I think he is the bigger version of Lamar Jackson, in the sense that nobody argues his physical skill set. But the nuances of playing pro qb are not in place yet. They shouldnt be as he is a rookie, but his issues were highlighted to death. Im sure they will show up badly in some games and not others as he gets some reps. However, I think he looked pretty good. Wasnt panicked, seemed to go thru progressions some and wasnt inaccurate, however they seemed to limit his attempts. Maybe it was a planned thing, or maybe it was game script that dictated it. Im curious to see how he does in a shootout situation, where it will be very dependent on him making good throws in a high volume.

If Flacco and Cam had a baby, and Geoff George and Carson Wentz had a baby.... and those two babies met and had a baby.... it would be Josh Allen

 
Josh Allen completed 16-of-33 passes for 151 yards, zero touchdowns and two interceptions in the Bills' 22-0, Week 4 loss to the Packers, also losing a fumble and taking seven sacks.

Everything the Bills were in Week 3 against the Vikings, that's what they weren't today. Allen entered the break just 5-of-19 for 58 yards and a pick. He was scarcely better after the break, where he specialized in taking thundering sacks as he spun backwards. His picks were amateur hour decisions. This kind of wild inconsistency is going to be Allen's hallmark as he gets his NFL sea legs amidst scarily-little surrounding talent in Buffalo. He will not be a recommended streamer against the Titans' upstart defense in Week 5.

Sep 30 - 4:19 PM

 
I still don't know how he's winning with the numbers he's putting up but he is getting Ws.

Game-winning drive shows Allen has a long way to go

...Allen was much more impressive with his feet, not his arm.

In the past 40 years, Allen is only one of two quarterbacks (Mark Brunell) to have more rushing touchdowns (3) than passing (2), through five games.

...Wins are all that matter at the end of the day, but Allen’s still not the franchise guy through four starts.

...Allen’s start to his career certainly doesn’t mean he can’t get there, but a 53.3 completion percent, 149.6 passing yards per game and a 2-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio 
It might be a slow burn before Allen starts putting up numbers, as in years of development but he's getting wins so that will buy him time.

 
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I still don't know how he's winning with the numbers he's putting up but he is getting Ws.

Game-winning drive shows Allen has a long way to go

It might be a slow burn before Allen starts putting up numbers, as in years of development but he's getting wins so that will buy him time.
What buys him time now is that the front office knows that they put no talent around him. There is probably only 1 other player on the offense that is in their longterm plans (Dawkins). In 2 years, there is a strong likelihood that the offense could be Allen, Dawkins, and 10 other starters different than the guys on the team right now.

The O-line can't block, the receivers and TEs can't get separation or catch the ball, and McCoy is not a long-term guy. The Bills are basically the exact same situation he had at Wyoming. It is completely unfair to put him in that situation and expect him to develop.

There are talks that the Bills are trying to sign Derek Anderson. At least if they did that, they'd have a veteran guy that could help teach Allen.

 
And literally right after I posted that, the Bills announced they have indeed signed Anderson.

I'm not sure if they can actually do this now, but I would love if they gave Anderson a week to get up to speed and then made him the starter for the next 6 or 7 games and let Allen sit and learn behind an actual vet. I feel like Bills fans would understand at this point where the team is and how much it's not helping Allen playing right now.

 
And literally right after I posted that, the Bills announced they have indeed signed Anderson.

I'm not sure if they can actually do this now, but I would love if they gave Anderson a week to get up to speed and then made him the starter for the next 6 or 7 games and let Allen sit and learn behind an actual vet. I feel like Bills fans would understand at this point where the team is and how much it's not helping Allen playing right now.
What?!??! Dude, I generally like your thoughts and input on here but there is absolutely 0% chance they will start Anderson unless Allen gets injured. Allen is THE starter without question. Anderson will help him develop but benching him would be the wrong move IMHO.

 
ultra conservative last week.  Athletic TD run, all deep routes with no time to develop. Missed a deep throw to Jones but hit him on a couple third down's early 4th quarter. Would like to see more screens and high percentage throws on FIRST down in the future.  RUN/RUN/PASS

 
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And literally right after I posted that, the Bills announced they have indeed signed Anderson.

I'm not sure if they can actually do this now, but I would love if they gave Anderson a week to get up to speed and then made him the starter for the next 6 or 7 games and let Allen sit and learn behind an actual vet. I feel like Bills fans would understand at this point where the team is and how much it's not helping Allen playing right now.
Yeah, I very strongly disagree with this.  I know Allen's numbers look bad, but as you note, that's at least as much a function of his supporting cast as it is his inexperience.  His one interception yesterday came on a perfectly-thrown pass that the WR befouled.  Obviously he's made rookie mistakes (though none this past game), but he doesn't seem to be in over his head.  Let the guy learn on the field.

 
Yeah, I very strongly disagree with this.  I know Allen's numbers look bad, but as you note, that's at least as much a function of his supporting cast as it is his inexperience.  His one interception yesterday came on a perfectly-thrown pass that the WR befouled.  Obviously he's made rookie mistakes (though none this past game), but he doesn't seem to be in over his head.  Let the guy learn on the field.
Agree - No way can you put in Anderson.  I wish they cut Peterman and sign him to PS, if he gets plucked so be it.

 
What?!??! Dude, I generally like your thoughts and input on here but there is absolutely 0% chance they will start Anderson unless Allen gets injured. Allen is THE starter without question. Anderson will help him develop but benching him would be the wrong move IMHO.
If they had a better cast around him and the Bills were letting him sling the ball, I'd be fine with leaving him out there. But the Bills are clearly asking him to be more conservative, the O-line is making his happy feet problem worse, and the WRs not getting open and/or dropping balls/letting passes get intercepted makes him distrust throwing any slightly contested route. Everything they're doing is basically just making everything worse for him.

Honestly, watching how the Bills are using him right now reminds me of Doug Marrone and EJ Manuel. Manuel likely wasn't going to be anything, but Marrone crushed any possibility by forcing Manuel to reign it in and dink and dunk and never ever turn it over. Feels like the Bills are doing the same thing now with Allen. Totally setting him up for failure in every single way. Bad O-line, bad WRs, forced to play before he was ready, and offensive playcalling that has done NOTHING to help him. Dabol has been beyond awful designing an offense to benefit Allen and develop him.

 
Josh Allen - QB -  Bills

Josh Allen exited Week 6 against the Texans with a right elbow injury.

Allen took a big hit to his elbow when was sandwiched between two defenders as he delivered a deep pass to Kelvin Benjamin in the third quarter. He stayed in for another play, but he grabbed his throwing arm after that throw and headed to the sideline. He is officially questionable to return, but he has a big wrap on his elbow which suggests his day is over. Nathan Peterman has taken over.

Oct 14 - 3:10 PM

 
Bills coach Sean McDermott was noncomittal Monday when asked if Josh Allen (elbow) will start in Week 7 against the Colts.

The alternatives are Nathan "Pick" Peterman and Derek Anderson. Allen's elbow injury doesn't seem serious, but it's to his throwing arm and kept him out of the end of Sunday's loss to Houston. Allen was struggling mightily even before going down. We'd be surprised to see him out there against Indianapolis.

Oct 15 - 4:15 PM
 
Josh Allen (elbow) will miss at least the next two or three games and will be week-to-week after that.

A second opinion on his elbow from Dr. James Andrews confirmed that Allen has UCL damage to his throwing arm, but he will not need Tommy John surgery. Instead Allen will rest and rehab with the hope that he can return in about one month. With Allen out, the Bills can either start Nathan Peterman or Derek Anderson, who they signed just last week. Streaming defenses against this Bills offense is an attractive strategy.

Source: Tom Pelissero on Twitter 

Oct 16 - 7:09 PM
 
Josh Allen completed 18-of-33 passes for 231 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions while rushing for 135 yards on nine carries in the Bills' Week 13 loss to the Dolphins.

Allen played well enough for the Bills to win this game. Following a slow start, Allen got the offense moving in the second quarter with his legs, a weapon he used to great effect in the last two games, before escaping the pocket to the right and hitting Zay Jones at the back of the end zone for a 15-yard touchdown. He had Jones wide open in the end zone again on the first drive of the third quarter, but he threw behind him on what looked like a miscommunication. He made up for it with a great throw on the run in his own end zone to pick up a third down on the next drive, and he briefly gave Buffalo the lead by threading a pass to Jones for a 25-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter. Following a Dolphins' TD, Allen led what should have been a game-winning touchdown, but Charles Clay dropped an underthrown pass in the end zone to end the game. The rookie did have a bad interception in the second half – his other pick came on a Hail Mary just before halftime – but this was a solid perform

Dec 2 - 4:18 PM

 
First QB since 1960 (or maybe it was 1961) to have back to back 90+ yard rushing games.

And he made some excellent throws as well. That back shoulder throw that Zay dropped was a great throw. And while the pass to Clay at the end was underthrown a bit, it was made after a heroic attempt to evade pressure and an incredible throw on the run across his body.

 
First QB since 1960 (or maybe it was 1961) to have back to back 90+ yard rushing games.

And he made some excellent throws as well. That back shoulder throw that Zay dropped was a great throw. And while the pass to Clay at the end was underthrown a bit, it was made after a heroic attempt to evade pressure and an incredible throw on the run across his body.
Yep.  And Benjamin really should have had a TD reception as well.  (Zay got one later in the drive).

Nobody would dispute that Allen has looked very raw at times, and he's made plenty of ugly-looking plays typical of rookie QBs.  The second interception was one of those, where he made a very ill-advised throw that the defender baited him into.  That sort of thing just comes with experience.  He needs to work on not throwing 100 mph fastballs all the time.  It's a little hard to evaluate his accuracy because his receivers are mostly awful (again, Jones seems to breaking out though), but even when he gets a clean pocket he still occasionally misfires.  

All that aside, I think Allen has done a great job justifying why the Bills traded up to get him.  In both of his games after returning from injury, he's been the best player on the field for either team on either side of the ball.  I understand that we're talking about a couple of pretty bad teams, but still.  He has a few more games and a whole offseason to build on his chemistry with Jones.  Presumably he will have a better o-line and a better set of receivers next year.  Hopefully a RB with fresh legs.  I'm probably biased because I liked the pick when we drafted him, but I think he's shown lots of reasons for fans to be optimistic.

 
First QB since 1960 (or maybe it was 1961) to have back to back 90+ yard rushing games.

And he made some excellent throws as well. That back shoulder throw that Zay dropped was a great throw. And while the pass to Clay at the end was underthrown a bit, it was made after a heroic attempt to evade pressure and an incredible throw on the run across his body.
Clay has to catch that ball. Have you seen a replay of Clay's effort while the ball was in the air? I haven't just wondered if you have.

 
Clay has to catch that ball. Have you seen a replay of Clay's effort while the ball was in the air? I haven't just wondered if you have.
They showed one replay after it and, I think it was Lofton, speculated that Clay may have lost his footing.

Even with that, it sure looked like he should have had it.

 
They showed one replay after it and, I think it was Lofton, speculated that Clay may have lost his footing.

Even with that, it sure looked like he should have had it.
The ball hung up a long time and it looked like Clay was trying to keep his feet in the endzone when he should have come out to meet the ball but instead he 'sorta' fell forward like mistiming a leap and he blew it.  

Not a great throw in terms of style but it was an amazing throw in terms of distance covered since he threw it from the far hash to the opposite side of the field.  It was an Elway type of power throw.

I've been saying that his development is going to be over a course of years but that is for traditional NFL QB development.  He can contribute now if they build an offense around his running skills ala Lamar Jackson but that might further hinder traditional QB development.  

He is putting up solid fantasy numbers  right now and many in the fantasy community aren't paying attention.

 
Bracie Smathers said:
He is putting up solid fantasy numbers  right now and many in the fantasy community aren't paying attention.
:oldunsure:   just reviewed his gamelogs this year.... all or nothing... 3 great games  5 bad ones... but two in a row, even if he is good again week 14 i dont know if i have the balls or stomach to bench watson or winston week 15.

 
:oldunsure:   just reviewed his gamelogs this year.... all or nothing... 3 great games  5 bad ones... but two in a row, even if he is good again week 14 i dont know if i have the balls or stomach to bench watson or winston week 15.
I probably wouldn't trust him either, but devil's advocate:

The Bills faced one of the toughest defensive schedules in the league over the first 6 games and face one of the easiest the rest of the way. 

 
GroveDiesel said:
First QB since 1960 (or maybe it was 1961) to have back to back 90+ yard rushing games.
Are you sure about that? Terrelle Pryor did it in 2013 and Vick did it in 2010 2002.

 
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I don't see the weeks Vick did it, but it certainly looks like Pryor did in Weeks 9 and 10. Weird. They totally showed that stat during the game. 
Sorry, Vick did it in 2002 (Games 6 & 7).

I'm sure it's been done several times prior to that but ProFootballReference only goes back to 1999.

Maybe the TV stat was referring to Bills QBs or rookie QBs only?

 
:oldunsure:   just reviewed his gamelogs this year.... all or nothing... 3 great games  5 bad ones... but two in a row, even if he is good again week 14 i dont know if i have the balls or stomach to bench watson or winston week 15.
I didn't start him in my playoff game and it cost me going forward.  Lost by .9 points as in less than 1 point.

If I started Josh over Russell Wilson I would have won by a little more than 1 point.  My other option is Phil Rivers so no way was I starting Josh but over the past two games he's outscored two of the hottest NFL and fantasy QBs.

If you somehow could get a read on when he is ripe to have a big fantasy game it will become a dilemma.  Right now he's a BYE week or injury force start but if he is able to maintain consistent rushing numbers and avoid turnovers/three-and-outs he will become fantasy relevant.

Bottom line, people will miss out for dynasty if he's out on the wire because right now their isn't any buzz and he is 'probably' out on the wire in many fantasy leagues.

 
The stats show that their could be some fantasy value here.

Josh Allen league leader in stats that would interest fantasy owners

Benjamin Solak@BenjaminSolak

So here’s something:#BillsMafia QB Josh Allen is now leading the league in @NextGenStats’ Intended Air Yards at 11.7.

In both of the last two weeks (two of his best games) he has MASSIVELY led the league.

Wk 12: 18.3 (!!) - next closest was 11.8
Wk 13: 15.9 - next was 12.1


3:29 PM - Dec 4, 2018

That piqued my interest immediately.

You don’t just start hitting absurdly high numbers in intended air yards without a concerted offensive effort to do so. Put another way: this can’t just be Josh Allen deciding to bomb every single pass, regardless of what his offensive coordinator Brian Daboll wants of him. No, this must have been a deliberate move; a decision between the head coach, the offensive coordinator, the QB coach, and the quarterback. We’re going to start pushing the ball deep. A lot.

But it’s even more than that!

NFL Research✔@NFLResearch

NFL Rushing Leaders since Week 12
1. Phillip Lindsay - 267 rush yards
2. Lamar Miller - 265 rush yards
3. Josh Allen - 234 rush yards

Wait...what? @buffalobills #GoBills

6:09 PM - Dec 4, 2018

Over the past two weeks, Josh Allen has ran for more yardage than all but two NFL running backs.

When it rains, it pours — and there’s no way these two drip-drops are unrelated. Against the Jaguars in Week 12, the Josh Allen-led Bills put up their second highest point total of the year with 24; and against a tough Dolphins defense in Week 13, 17 points — their highest in a loss this season.

Now, you could have counted me among the many Draft analysts firmly disbelieving in Josh Allen as a prospect — I had him ranked lower than any TDN scout. I was especially concerned with his Year 1 projection, as so much of his college game was embodied by chaos, improvisation, and physically outclassing his competition. Here we are in Year 1, and it is much as I expected: Allen’s best plays come as a result of chaos — often of his own authoring — and improvisation, and he saves himself with his impressive speed and unimaginable arm strength.

But credit goes to Brian Daboll, the first-year offensive coordinator for the Buffalo Bills, who has found a way to strap his offense to Josh Allen’s back, throw on a cowboy hat, and ride the wild bull like a rodeo star....
Go to the link for the rest of the story but it brings up two glaring positive stats and connects them to a coaching adjustment.

Now here is one other stat to chew on.

-----------------------------------------------------------

Sigmund Bloom‏ @SigmundBloom

Sigmund Bloom Retweeted Next Gen Stats

James Conner and Josh Allen also stand out as size/speed outliers

Sigmund Bloom added,

Next Gen StatsVerified account @NextGenStats

When looking at the top speed and size of ball carriers, @Titans Derrick Henry is in a league of his own. @KingHenry_2 reached 21.74 MPH at 247 lbs, the 8th-fastest…

6:01 AM - 7 Dec 2018

--------------------------------------------------------------

Go to this link >>>   Size speed chart to see that Josh Allen is biggest (listed over 240 lbs) and fastest (timed over 20.5 mph) NFL QB and then you can connect this stat to the stat showing him as the 3rd best NFL rusher over the past two weeks and then bring back to the coaching change that Bills OC Brian Daboll made utilizing Allen's big arm to force the defense to play deep and open up those rushing lanes.

Realllllllllllllllllllllly interesting especially for fantasy owners because Josh is putting up top fantasy QB numbers over the past two games after Daboll made the coaching change.

 
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