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QB Justin Fields, NYJ (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
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Deranged Hermit
Not cool & Pissed
With Belichek gone (allegedly anyway), throw everything we know about NE out the window. That being said , I can't see a trade for Fields. I think they stay pat and go with Williams or Maye.
Max Power
Footballguy
it's going to be a tough situation for Poles.
The most important thing will be QB evaluations for the rookies. Bears need to be 100% confident moving on from JF is the right move.
If the Bears aren't blown away with any of the prospects it gets tricky. The next biggest factor will be what type of package is offered for #1. Rumored to be on par or better than last year's deal. It may be hard to pass on another deal like that.
Then we get into the whole JF future contract or trade value conversation. Bears need to figure out what what those numbers and offers look like. I'm for keeping JF if he will take a reasonable contract offer. I don't think the Bears can punt contract talks when sitting on 1.01.
Finally the locker room aspect. His teammates love him. DJ has asked ownership to keep JF. Poles has to weigh the pros and cons of shipping out a team leader.
It's going to be a wild ride until the dust settles. I'm hoping some team falls in love with Caleb and makes a crazy offer to get him.
The most important thing will be QB evaluations for the rookies. Bears need to be 100% confident moving on from JF is the right move.
If the Bears aren't blown away with any of the prospects it gets tricky. The next biggest factor will be what type of package is offered for #1. Rumored to be on par or better than last year's deal. It may be hard to pass on another deal like that.
Then we get into the whole JF future contract or trade value conversation. Bears need to figure out what what those numbers and offers look like. I'm for keeping JF if he will take a reasonable contract offer. I don't think the Bears can punt contract talks when sitting on 1.01.
Finally the locker room aspect. His teammates love him. DJ has asked ownership to keep JF. Poles has to weigh the pros and cons of shipping out a team leader.
It's going to be a wild ride until the dust settles. I'm hoping some team falls in love with Caleb and makes a crazy offer to get him.
rockaction
Footballguy
As a bystander, this has all the signs of a decision you really want somebody competent making. It's really intricate and difficult. I think Fields holds the ball too long and always has since college. It's my main criticism of him. He doesn't throw the ball when he should and he misses windows. Of course, he compensates by being otherworldly athletic once everything breaks down.
And I read that article in ESPN and he seems pretty clearly to be a team leader and captain. Not sure what you do with that.
Good luck.
And I read that article in ESPN and he seems pretty clearly to be a team leader and captain. Not sure what you do with that.
Good luck.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
The bolded is such a tough part of the decision too. IMO Kmet is worthy of a mention, but aside from him, DJ Moore is really the only top end offensive weapon they have. And regardless of what anyone thinks of Fields, not only is he the best QB Moore has played with yet, but they definitely have a great connection with each other. Moore has been QB starved going all the way back to his college days in Maryland. It would be a travesty for him to suffer through more terrible QB play after FINALLY getting to put up numbers worthy of his talent in his 6th season. And as much as we can laud this QB class, we have 0 clue if Williams or Maye will be a hit. And if they are, WHEN will they hit. You're 1.01 rookie QB taking 3 years to hit potential isn't necessarily the worst thing, but making Moore wait until age 30 to give him another competent passes is IMO.
Maybe my Steelers can break the bank and get Fields AND Moore in a trade
I think (with a competent OC) Fields could shine yet. I don't care who people want to compare Fields to individually, but I can say without a doubt in my mind he's a starting QB and one of the top 32 in the league. I think he still will be after 2024 rookies enter as well.
flapgreen
Footballguy
Easiest decision ever. They're not deciding between Favre and Rodgers here. Bears fans are broken from all of the years of failure.
Max Power
Footballguy
So your opinion is to take Williams? A QB who holds the ball too long and has no experience in a pro style offense?
This isn't just a Williams vs JF debate.
It's a Williams vs JF & 2 firsts, 2nds and maybe a solid vet debate.
The Bears have other glaring holes to fill that drafting Caleb doesn't address.
Kiddnets
Footballguy
Not so sure about that - as a Jets fan the franchise would have been much better sticking with a sub par Darnold and getting a haul trading down building the team around him vs getting stuck with an all time bust. If Williams grades out as a no brainer franchise QB then by all means go for it - but it wouldnt be a no brainer for me.
osubuckeyeman
Footballguy
I like Fields. I want him to stay in Chicago. That said is he worth what they will have to pay him? If they commit to JF then they are committing to him long term. I suppose they could be in the top ten next year and move on from him then but to me, if they pass on taking a QB this year it's a long-term commitment. At least 4 years. The Bears could pick up the 5th year option estimated at 23.5 million and kick the can down the road another year and then see if they had to. I would think they would want to sign him to a longer-term deal now if they decide to commit to JF.
If they decide to trade JF they then would most likely select a QB at one and still have # 10 or whatever that pick turns out to be. They can move up using that pick and other assets if they want to. Maybe see if they can still get MHJ kind of like what Houston did. Or they can trade down from the #10 and get more picks to build around the new QB and the roster. This would also mean they have a QB on a rookie deal freeing up a lot of money the next 3 years to add in free agency. You also would have the trade capital from trading JF to play with. I think this option opens the roster. The one BIG risk is the new QB, If he busts then you made a pretty big mistake. However, even with a bust at QB, the roster should still be pretty good just have to find a solution at QB down the road. I think trading him allows for better outcomes.
As much as I enjoy Justin Fields trading him makes more sense for the long-term prospects of the Chicago Bears.
If they decide to trade JF they then would most likely select a QB at one and still have # 10 or whatever that pick turns out to be. They can move up using that pick and other assets if they want to. Maybe see if they can still get MHJ kind of like what Houston did. Or they can trade down from the #10 and get more picks to build around the new QB and the roster. This would also mean they have a QB on a rookie deal freeing up a lot of money the next 3 years to add in free agency. You also would have the trade capital from trading JF to play with. I think this option opens the roster. The one BIG risk is the new QB, If he busts then you made a pretty big mistake. However, even with a bust at QB, the roster should still be pretty good just have to find a solution at QB down the road. I think trading him allows for better outcomes.
As much as I enjoy Justin Fields trading him makes more sense for the long-term prospects of the Chicago Bears.
Max Power
Footballguy
JF's value is so hard to figure out right now. I think he has a lot riding on this week. If he goes into GB plays well and gets a W, that goes a long way towards keeping him. At that point its hard to claim he isn't progressing as a QB. With a win he'd be 5-2 since coming back from the thumb injury. Those two losses weigh heavier on coaching than his play.
My biggest hesitation from moving on from JF is that I don't love Williams or Maye. If Poles does, fine... I support the decision. I think JF has played his way into at least a 2nd round + pick in a trade scenario. If the Bears do take a QB at #1, the team still has a lot of holes to fill. WR (bears need 4) and DE being the two biggest and those are going to cost a lot in FA. If they only have #10 and a second from the Fields trade to address starter level holes, the rebuild is going to take longer.
or I see it like this...
Trade JF scenario
1.01 - QB
1.10 - WR or DE
2nd rounder from trade - WR/DE/C/S
2025 draft - 1x first, 2x 2nds (3 picks in top 60)
Trade 1.01 scenario
Early first - WR
1.10 - DE
2nd rd - C/S
2025 draft - 2x firsts, 3x 2nds (5 picks in top 60)
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
100% with you. After watching ACC Football all season, I don't think Maye is the answer. What I've seen of Williams this season hasn't impressed me. IMO, he has similar tendencies to Fields (holds too long, can be slow on progressions at times, timing issues, footwork issues) without Fields' athletic ability.
This is what it makes it a difficult decision for me:
Fields + 3 1st round picks (from a team that will likely be bad in 2024 and 2025)
vs
Williams/Drake
With all of that said, is it possible that the Bears could keep Fields and draft a 2nd round QB to groom (Sanders, Pennix, Nix, McCarthy) while punting the very large contract conversation a year or two?
Max Power
Footballguy
Orlosky broke down Williams tape and wasn't impressed either. For those same reasons... holds the ball too long and doesn't read all his progressions before moving to "hero ball". He did caveat it by saying the USC D was so bad, there was added pressure for Williams to resort to hero ball and he is one of the best at doing it. He fells Caleb currently isn't elite playing within a pro system and I agree with that.
Im not sure how I feel about taking a QB in this draft. I love Bagent as a backup and think 2nd round is too early. At that point its also saying we don't have a ton of faith in JF. I'd probably be ok with it if someone starts dropping in rd 3 or so. An ultimately if the Bears have 5 early picks in 2025, they can go get who they want.
Contract talk is another tough one. I know its one that can be kicked down the road, but when you have the leverage of the #1 pick on your side, its worth bringing up and discussing. I think the Daniel Jones contract warped the market a bit. It was a bad contract. NYG had limited options and went with it and now regret it. I wish it was a learning point for everyone, but instead its the new benchmark.
FarFromHome
Footballguy
Good post. I agree with most. One big factor for me in trading him is that you have to hit on the right QB. It's not an exact science. You trade Fields, then miss on pick 1 you arguably saved some money, but you also went backwards as an organization if winning the super bowl is the end goal. Big decision. If the Bears are smart they haven't decided one way or the other. They should deep dive into the top 3 QB prospects to evaluate. If one gives them that tingly feeling then I move Fields. If none give them that tingly feeling I move the pick.
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I won't say impossible but unlikely with a first round pick just because I think it's one thing to draft a QB high when you got someone like a Brady, but when a QB is trying to develop I believe the thought process is that pressure if not conducive to their success.
What makes me the most sense to me if they actually want to keep Fields is to do what they already did, which was the same think Philly did a few years ago. And that is to acquire #1's for the 2025 draft class. They could in theory get such a haul for 1.1 that even if one of their picks was not high enough they'd have enough ammo to make a move.
When Chicago traded out of the 1.1 last year I thought it was a great move for that very reason as they were able to evaluate Fields another year and push the decision down the road. Main risk for Chicago is just not liking any QB's next year and they'd need to pick up Fields 5th year option this off-season if they take this approach but he'd probably not bomb so much it would impossible to unload.
@AllbrightNFL
Based on conversations I've had over the last month or so, I would suggest that Jayden Daniels might actually be viewed by more teams as the number two quarterback in this class and not Drake Maye
Max Power
Footballguy
A similar thought process from a different angle is if the Bears bring in a QB to replace JF, the rookie needs to be mentally ready to face fans and media who loved Fields. The rookie will be compared to JF and win totals constantly.
Hard to be a rookie. Harder to be a rookie in a big city football town. Even harder to have to be compared to the last QB on a weekly basis.
Not to mention that pick could have been turned into a package that included MHjr and other early picks... it's a lot on a young kid.
FarFromHome
Footballguy
I guess its easier when the guy your replacing has a career wining percentage of .28. ha ha
Max Power
Footballguy
Ehh... rookie years are rookie years. 2022 was a straight up tank job by the whole organization. I can't hold that against Fields too hard.
The 2022 Bears D was ranked dead last in the league. Their sack leader was a safety who had 4 on the year.
Deranged Hermit
Not cool & Pissed
The more I see of Daniels, the more I like him more than the other qbs, including Caleb.
Chase Daniel
I’m more convinced than ever that Justin Fields is the QB of the future for The Chicago Bears.
I went back & watched every game he played this year & did the deepest of dives into his play on the field.
Justin Fields Full Season Review Breakdown
:youtu.be/pSmaAfdXaCA
osubuckeyeman
Footballguy
I think it's time for Field's managers to start thinking about the best landing spots. Denver? New England? Atlanta? Seattle? Las Vegas?
Hard to see the Bears having Fields learn another offense. Just makes too much sense to move him for many reasons already discussed in this thread.
Hard to see the Bears having Fields learn another offense. Just makes too much sense to move him for many reasons already discussed in this thread.
ChiefD
Footballguy
To me, the question should always be when evaluating your QB: Can he win us a Super Bowl?
Fields = No
Start the clock on the next guy and move on. In today’s NFL 3 years is ample time to evaluate your QB, even if he has to go through multiple coaches and systems.
He either has it, or he doesn’t.
Fields = No
Start the clock on the next guy and move on. In today’s NFL 3 years is ample time to evaluate your QB, even if he has to go through multiple coaches and systems.
He either has it, or he doesn’t.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Fields has looked like he’s had it pretty often.
I’m pretty neutral on the trade - just about anywhere he goes will be a better organization.
Steelers are a nice fit. Good weapons. Winning atmosphere.
To me it’s all about scheme & using him to his strengths.
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I think there is a difference between "can he win a Super Bowl", and "can he carry us to a Super Bowl" I think Fields looked roughly as good or better than a few Super Bowl QBs in recent-ish history.
2015 Peyton Manning
2012 Joe Flacco was probably worse until he got hot for a few games in the playoffs.
2012 Kaepernick I'd call an equal.
2008 Big Ben was about equal but played well in the playoffs.
2007 Eli (other than NE)
2006 Rex Grossman was significantly worse.
All of those teams played excellent defense and had more supporting cast talent than anything Fields has had. I sometimes wonder if the "need to have a Franchise QB to win a Super Bowl" was just another thing that got thrown off by Brady's dominance. Looking at the non-Brady/Peyton years, you have a lot of good QBs, or average QBs who got hot on great teams making it.
Now there is a lot of evidence to suggest Fields isn't a franchise QB (no debate there), but there is also a lot of evidence to suggest he's an NFL starter caliber QB, even if its potentially on the lower end.
If Fields is dealt (and I think its better than 50-50 personally) I think the Raiders are a very interesting fit, with Adams/Meyers/Mayer and an indoor stadium, where his mobility is more dangerous. Plus they can spend their 1st rounder elsewhere instead of reaching for like the 4th best rookie.
Wigglytuff's Gruff
Footballguy
Guy I know who does some work for NFL related social media has been told to keep Justin Fields front and centre of any Bears related promotional stuff.
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
It's also hard to see the Bears drafting a rookie with a potentially lame duck head coach, yet that's been the MO for the past decade.
pollardsvision
Footballguy
Maybe I'm an idiot, but why doesn't anyone seem to be considering the option to keep Fields AND draft Williams?
Maybe a little different, but finding the right QB is hard.
And especially if you're the Chicago Bears who have been searching for the right QB for a century, why in the world would you not take two rolls of the dice?
And if by some absolute miracle the Chicago Bears "mess up" and somehow have 2 franchise QBs on the roster (seriously read that sentence again), there are a lot worse problems to have.
Maybe a little different, but finding the right QB is hard.
And especially if you're the Chicago Bears who have been searching for the right QB for a century, why in the world would you not take two rolls of the dice?
And if by some absolute miracle the Chicago Bears "mess up" and somehow have 2 franchise QBs on the roster (seriously read that sentence again), there are a lot worse problems to have.
Max Power
Footballguy
What is your criteria for if a guy has it or not? Out of curiosity who is on your list for QBs that can win SBs?
ChiefD
Footballguy
For me, I just want to see a guy that when the you know what hits the fan, he can make a play. Lead his team from behind. Make all the throws under pressure. A guy that can run an offense in rhythm. And a guy who can win games - not only the ones you are supposed to win but also the ones when things aren't going your way. I just don't see that in Fields (granted, I don't watch every one of his game, but I watch a fair amount of them)
The guys that can win Super Bowls?
Mahomes
Allen
Purdy
Jackson
Stroud
Flacco (can't believe I typed that but he's been there, done that. and I think he can do it again this year with this team)
Burrow
Hurts
Stroking Stafford
Just my opinion
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Max Power
Footballguy
So I think your cutoff is a tier above mine. I still think guys Like Dak, Tua, T. Lawrence, Goff, Love, and Herbert can be winners
Wigglytuff's Gruff
Footballguy
Matt Stafford is sitting stroking his Superbowl ring wondering what he has to do to get recognized by this board.
ChiefD
Footballguy
Yeah forgot about him. I'll add him to my list.
jumper
Footballguy
And of that list the ones who actually HAVE won a SB: Mahomes, Flacco, Stafford. Only one of them is elite. Stafford is a fine example of someone who belongs in the "Hall of Very Good, but not the Hall of Fame" and Flacco is a career journeyman who got hot enough one year to win the Lombardi.
ChiefD
Footballguy
Yeah, I agree for sure. Goff has been to the Super Bowl of course, but I wanna see the rest of the guys at least get there.
Dak may do it this year, but man he's had so many efforts fall short for various reasons.
Wigglytuff's Gruff
Footballguy
Any of them could theoretically get there if they find themselves on an awesome team and the stars align. Whether or not they could win a Superbowl is probably too binary a method to judge when you consider than Jimmy G was right there one year.
Do they have what it takes to be the truck that pulls their team onto victory the multiple times when it's required over a season, often at the most pressurized time, is probably the question you are trying to answer. At some point the team is going to need their QB to step up and win them the game, might not be the Superbowl where they do that necessarily, but at several points in the playoffs that question will be asked of some.
I don't think Fields is that guy personally. I think more often than not he'd let you down. A very erratic player I think. Hard to pin your hopes to someone like that.
Do they have what it takes to be the truck that pulls their team onto victory the multiple times when it's required over a season, often at the most pressurized time, is probably the question you are trying to answer. At some point the team is going to need their QB to step up and win them the game, might not be the Superbowl where they do that necessarily, but at several points in the playoffs that question will be asked of some.
I don't think Fields is that guy personally. I think more often than not he'd let you down. A very erratic player I think. Hard to pin your hopes to someone like that.
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
There's an old saying that goes, "If you think you have 2 QBs, you really don't have any."
The players need to know that the coaches and front office have confidence in them. The coaches need to game plan specifically for the starting QB (unless you're Getsy).
All that AND the team isn't good enough to spend a 1st rounder on a backup or pay Fields a starter's salary to be a backup.
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
Yikes. How many of those guys are there? 3? 4, maybe in the league at the moment?
Wigglytuff's Gruff
Footballguy
Fewer than 10 for sure.
Hence why, when the opportunity to do so falls into your lap, you should gamble on the guy with upside.
Max Power
Footballguy
And Dak highlights the insanity of the current QB market. He might be the highest paid player in the NFL after this season. I think the Cowboys pay him, but with the "cash it in" formula you suggested, do you really think its in their best interest to reset? It took Dak 8 years to have the best year of his career.
pollardsvision
Footballguy
I didn't mean for a long-term solution. But for one year, it makes perfect sense, IMO.
Both QBs on a rookie deal. Bears have another top 10 pick, which helps.
FIelds starts the season (presumably). He either takes a step forward or you bring in the rookie and see what he's got. Or he gets hurt.
I know conventional wisdom these days is that you draft a rookie and hand him the keys, but it wasn't always that way. And it's pretty arguable about how well that's going. But letting a rookie sit for half a season isn't some disaster.
After 100 years of "no QB", I've got to think one more year of "no QB" to increase the odds of finally getting one would make sense.
I think the major flaw in my plan is the coach. In 2023, it would take a really strong coach to pull this off. For instance, if the 49ers or Chiefs did it, no one would question it because they have a coach capable of managing a tricky situation.
But there's no reason to think Eberflus could.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Fields' value is not going to increase after a year of sitting on the bench. If you're going to trade him you do it now. If you're not going to trade him you trade the pick and do your best to put a juggernaut squad around him.
No half measures.
ETA: This IS a deep QB class, so you could potentially use your two top 10 picks to build around Fields AND still draft someone at the QB position with their 3rd rounder. Or trade the 2025 future 2nds+ to move back into the first for Nix or Penix.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
If I were running the Patriots I’d give a 2nd for him. Since it’s such a high 2nd, try and get something back as well. Take the 1.03 and move down a bit to grab one of the top two tackles and use the extra draft capital to draft a WR in this WR rich draft.
