QB Justin Fields, NYJ (1 Viewer)

[Da Franchise]

The problem with Fields is if you ship a decent pick, and you’re right about it and he has a good season, your prize is you have to pay him like Daniel Jones money immediately.

Want to pay to enter a contest in hell? Step right this way.

Personally I think we are seeing the league finally adjust against paying these very mediocre, can’t win QBs, big time money. It’s the next major market correction ala Running Backs and it’s already underway.

 

[brewer]

I get the feeling that JF is no one's plan A. Teams want to see where Cousins, Mayfield and Baker land. Once a couple of those guys are off the board his demand will go back up

Cousins is key. Baker is a virtual lock to be back in Tampa.
Tannehill would be better in Pittsburgh than fields imo. Although he’d just be a short term answer.

Agree about Cousins and Baker.

But Tannehill? He seems kind of old and broken down and is 3 years removed from his last effective season. I guess if they want to be 9-8 again but not going to help them take the next step.

Pittsburgh wants Pickett to be the guy, Tannehill knows Arthur Smith's offense and can mentor Pickett without being as much of a threat as the other QBs would be.

If they brought in Fields or Wilson, it would be to start over Pickett, the Steelers don't seem interested in doing that.

 

[efactor]

I get the feeling that JF is no one's plan A. Teams want to see where Cousins, Mayfield and Baker land. Once a couple of those guys are off the board his demand will go back up

Cousins is key. Baker is a virtual lock to be back in Tampa.
Tannehill would be better in Pittsburgh than fields imo. Although he’d just be a short term answer.

Agree about Cousins and Baker.

But Tannehill? He seems kind of old and broken down and is 3 years removed from his last effective season. I guess if they want to be 9-8 again but not going to help them take the next step.

Pittsburgh wants Pickett to be the guy, Tannehill knows Arthur Smith's offense and can mentor Pickett without being as much of a threat as the other QBs would be.

If they brought in Fields or Wilson, it would be to start over Pickett, the Steelers don't seem interested in doing that.

Steelers beat reporter saying they are interested in Wilson. Stay tuned I guess.

 

[Max Power]

The problem with Fields is if you ship a decent pick, and you’re right about it and he has a good season, your prize is you have to pay him like Daniel Jones money immediately.

Want to pay to enter a contest in hell? Step right this way.

Personally I think we are seeing the league finally adjust against paying these very mediocre, can’t win QBs, big time money. It’s the next major market correction ala Running Backs and it’s already underway.

Fields would probably get his 5th year option picked up if he is traded. $25 Mil for a QB isn't terrible. That gives a team two years to figure out what to do with him and what his true value is.

I'm also worried the league is moving into a "lottery ticket" QB agenda. One where teams keep going to the drawing board and draft a fresh face every 3-4 years hoping to hit a homerun vs developing a good, but not great QB and putting a solid roster around them. GB might be looking at 40 years of solid QB play with 3 QBs using a draft and develop style that the rest of the league can't seem to figure out.

Bears have mismanaged JF since day 1. I worry they will follow the same pattern with Williams.

 

[brewer]

I get the feeling that JF is no one's plan A. Teams want to see where Cousins, Mayfield and Baker land. Once a couple of those guys are off the board his demand will go back up

Cousins is key. Baker is a virtual lock to be back in Tampa.
Tannehill would be better in Pittsburgh than fields imo. Although he’d just be a short term answer.

Agree about Cousins and Baker.

But Tannehill? He seems kind of old and broken down and is 3 years removed from his last effective season. I guess if they want to be 9-8 again but not going to help them take the next step.

Pittsburgh wants Pickett to be the guy, Tannehill knows Arthur Smith's offense and can mentor Pickett without being as much of a threat as the other QBs would be.

If they brought in Fields or Wilson, it would be to start over Pickett, the Steelers don't seem interested in doing that.

Steelers beat reporter saying they are interested in Wilson. Stay tuned I guess.

That's been circling for a couple of weeks. I'll be happy if I am wrong, just think Tannehill falls more into what the team has been saying in regards to Pickett still being the #1.

 

[Da Franchise]

The problem with Fields is if you ship a decent pick, and you’re right about it and he has a good season, your prize is you have to pay him like Daniel Jones money immediately.

Want to pay to enter a contest in hell? Step right this way.

Personally I think we are seeing the league finally adjust against paying these very mediocre, can’t win QBs, big time money. It’s the next major market correction ala Running Backs and it’s already underway.

Fields would probably get his 5th year option picked up if he is traded. $25 Mil for a QB isn't terrible. That gives a team two years to figure out what to do with him and what his true value is.

I'm also worried the league is moving into a "lottery ticket" QB agenda. One where teams keep going to the drawing board and draft a fresh face every 3-4 years hoping to hit a homerun vs developing a good, but not great QB and putting a solid roster around them. GB might be looking at 40 years of solid QB play with 3 QBs using a draft and develop style that the rest of the league can't seem to figure out.

Bears have mismanaged JF since day 1. I worry they will follow the same pattern with Williams.

I mean, the league IS moving toward that method. It’s the one that makes the most sense with the pay scale the way it is. Best way to win is having a franchise QB on a rookie deal that turns into a long term contract. You don’t really feel any of that cap pain until the 6th or 7th year. If you draft and they bust or end up like Fields, you’re way better off starting over with another drafted QB.

For Fields specifically- sure any acquiring team will pick up the option. Then what? You’ve given up a 3rd round pick and $25M. He has a decent year and your team goes 8-9. He’s heading into the last year of his deal. What are you gonna do? It’s either extend him for big money, wait and play the tag game, or let him walk. The ONLY outcome where it made any sense to acquire him in the first place is if he becomes a legit, obvious franchise QB. Anybody really like the odds of that happening? I sure don’t.

Just because he’s not Nathan Peterman bad doesn’t mean he’s going to have a starting spot in todays league. For years I’ve been saying the Andy Daltons (Bengals) and Mac Jones and Daniel Jones etc are the worst QBs you could have. They cost money, are good enough your team doesn’t suck enough to get a high pick, but never give you a chance of actually winning anything that matters. The league is phasing this group out and rightly so.

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

I get the feeling that JF is no one's plan A. Teams want to see where Cousins, Mayfield and Baker land. Once a couple of those guys are off the board his demand will go back up

Cousins is key. Baker is a virtual lock to be back in Tampa.
Tannehill would be better in Pittsburgh than fields imo. Although he’d just be a short term answer.

I don't know. Baker's camp is saying they want $44M AAV. Good luck I guess.

That's nuts if true. I know he kindof has the Bucs over a barrel, but they'd be insane to sign him for that amount on a 4+ year deal.

 

[menobrown]

I don't like Fields and still think he's definitely a starter.

I think he's a top 32 QB but not by a lot especially in the context of the offense he would run, draft capital, commitment by teams with QB's in place and that he only has one year left on his deal are working against him.

Anyway I referenced 3 people who speculated he might not land a starting job. Let's review.

Dianna Russini. Excellent reporter for The Athletic, her "what I'm hearing" column which came out every Saturday in the football season became a must read. She detailed how dogged she was at the combine trying to get info and how she went there thinking Fields had a good market. She said she left feeling like he would at some point have a robust market, but that she could actually find no confirmed interest right now and left open the possibility a trade for him would look more like the Trey Lance in comp and he would not have a starting job.

Zach Rosenblatt, another guy with The Athletic wrote and article today predicting where Qb's land. I'm not overly impressed with Rosenblatt, don't put a lot of stock in his reports about knowing the landscape of the NFL and if he was the only one writing this stuff I'd pay him no heed. But as a beat writer in the leagues largest market(Jets) for one of the major media entities repeating what some others are indicating I'll at least entertain what he's saying and like the other two here he was recently at the combine gathering intel.

Here are his predictions for the QB landing spots with these being listed as starters:

Tampa- Baker
Atlanta-Cousins
Vikings-Darnold and Zach Wilson
Denver-Howell
Raiders-Daniels
Bears- Caleb
Washington- Maye
NE-Jacoby and Nix
Steelers-Tannehill to compete with Pickett
Seattle-Penix to compete with Geno
NYG-McCarthy to compte with Jones

These are backups:

Fields to Cleveland
Wilson to Colts

I'll say again I'm not big on Rosenblatt's reporting but I am quite high on Ben Allbright who is a Broncos beat writer, if he was not such an odd dude would be more well known. This is what he's got which he posted last night and he's been getting attacked by it today and he's not backing down:

His list was just a tweet and he did it by QB instead of team and I'll bold the one's that match Rosenblatt's.

Brissett-NE
Wilson- Pit or Raiders (this tweet was last night, word now today Steelers and Wilson setting up meeting)
Cousins-Falcons
Baker- Tampa
Flacco-Browns
Darnold-Denver
Tannehill-Texans

His comment when asked where Fields was going:

What do you mean? It's important? I think everyone else is going to have a seat at the table before he gets one.He's probably a back up quarterback somewhere next year.

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

The problem with Fields is if you ship a decent pick, and you’re right about it and he has a good season, your prize is you have to pay him like Daniel Jones money immediately.

Want to pay to enter a contest in hell? Step right this way.

Personally I think we are seeing the league finally adjust against paying these very mediocre, can’t win QBs, big time money. It’s the next major market correction ala Running Backs and it’s already underway.

Fields would probably get his 5th year option picked up if he is traded. $25 Mil for a QB isn't terrible. That gives a team two years to figure out what to do with him and what his true value is.

I'm also worried the league is moving into a "lottery ticket" QB agenda. One where teams keep going to the drawing board and draft a fresh face every 3-4 years hoping to hit a homerun vs developing a good, but not great QB and putting a solid roster around them. GB might be looking at 40 years of solid QB play with 3 QBs using a draft and develop style that the rest of the league can't seem to figure out.

Bears have mismanaged JF since day 1. I worry they will follow the same pattern with Williams.

I mean, the league IS moving toward that method. It’s the one that makes the most sense with the pay scale the way it is. Best way to win is having a franchise QB on a rookie deal that turns into a long term contract. You don’t really feel any of that cap pain until the 6th or 7th year. If you draft and they bust or end up like Fields, you’re way better off starting over with another drafted QB.

For Fields specifically- sure any acquiring team will pick up the option. Then what? You’ve given up a 3rd round pick and $25M. He has a decent year and your team goes 8-9. He’s heading into the last year of his deal. What are you gonna do? It’s either extend him for big money, wait and play the tag game, or let him walk. The ONLY outcome where it made any sense to acquire him in the first place is if he becomes a legit, obvious franchise QB. Anybody really like the odds of that happening? I sure don’t.

Just because he’s not Nathan Peterman bad doesn’t mean he’s going to have a starting spot in todays league. For years I’ve been saying the Andy Daltons (Bengals) and Mac Jones and Daniel Jones etc are the worst QBs you could have. They cost money, are good enough your team doesn’t suck enough to get a high pick, but never give you a chance of actually winning anything that matters. The league is phasing this group out and rightly so.

"I mean, the league IS moving toward that method. It’s the one that makes the most sense with the pay scale the way it is. Best way to win is having a franchise QB on a rookie deal that turns into a long term contract. You don’t really feel any of that cap pain until the 6th or 7th year. If you draft and they bust or end up like Fields, you’re way better off starting over with another drafted QB."

Hit rate for 1st round QBs is low, like 33%. #1 pick hit rate jumps significantly to 55%. So unless you're the freakin' Green Bay Packers, you can expect to draft a good, not great QB every 12 years or so given the 3-4 year timeframe for rookie contracts.. I just don't think that kind of drafting failure rate is sustainable unless teams are willing to expend massive amounts of draft capital toward the QB position at the expense of the other premium positions.

 

[-OZ-]

I get the feeling that JF is no one's plan A. Teams want to see where Cousins, Mayfield and Baker land. Once a couple of those guys are off the board his demand will go back up

Cousins is key. Baker is a virtual lock to be back in Tampa.
Tannehill would be better in Pittsburgh than fields imo. Although he’d just be a short term answer.

Agree about Cousins and Baker.

But Tannehill? He seems kind of old and broken down and is 3 years removed from his last effective season. I guess if they want to be 9-8 again but not going to help them take the next step.

I have little doubt that the Steelers could make the playoffs with RT starting. He’s a mentor, bridge and can either help Pickett develop or bridge to the next guy.
The Steelers aren’t taking the next step with any of the FA QBs and I’m just guessing they aren’t drafting another QB yet.
Wilson could be interesting.

 

[-OZ-]

Vikings-Darnold and Zach Wilson

This is a joke, right?
I have some hope for Darnold but good gawd ZW should not get another contract. (Probably will as a backup but shouldn’t)

 

[Da Franchise]

The problem with Fields is if you ship a decent pick, and you’re right about it and he has a good season, your prize is you have to pay him like Daniel Jones money immediately.

Want to pay to enter a contest in hell? Step right this way.

Personally I think we are seeing the league finally adjust against paying these very mediocre, can’t win QBs, big time money. It’s the next major market correction ala Running Backs and it’s already underway.

Fields would probably get his 5th year option picked up if he is traded. $25 Mil for a QB isn't terrible. That gives a team two years to figure out what to do with him and what his true value is.

I'm also worried the league is moving into a "lottery ticket" QB agenda. One where teams keep going to the drawing board and draft a fresh face every 3-4 years hoping to hit a homerun vs developing a good, but not great QB and putting a solid roster around them. GB might be looking at 40 years of solid QB play with 3 QBs using a draft and develop style that the rest of the league can't seem to figure out.

Bears have mismanaged JF since day 1. I worry they will follow the same pattern with Williams.

I mean, the league IS moving toward that method. It’s the one that makes the most sense with the pay scale the way it is. Best way to win is having a franchise QB on a rookie deal that turns into a long term contract. You don’t really feel any of that cap pain until the 6th or 7th year. If you draft and they bust or end up like Fields, you’re way better off starting over with another drafted QB.

For Fields specifically- sure any acquiring team will pick up the option. Then what? You’ve given up a 3rd round pick and $25M. He has a decent year and your team goes 8-9. He’s heading into the last year of his deal. What are you gonna do? It’s either extend him for big money, wait and play the tag game, or let him walk. The ONLY outcome where it made any sense to acquire him in the first place is if he becomes a legit, obvious franchise QB. Anybody really like the odds of that happening? I sure don’t.

Just because he’s not Nathan Peterman bad doesn’t mean he’s going to have a starting spot in todays league. For years I’ve been saying the Andy Daltons (Bengals) and Mac Jones and Daniel Jones etc are the worst QBs you could have. They cost money, are good enough your team doesn’t suck enough to get a high pick, but never give you a chance of actually winning anything that matters. The league is phasing this group out and rightly so.

"I mean, the league IS moving toward that method. It’s the one that makes the most sense with the pay scale the way it is. Best way to win is having a franchise QB on a rookie deal that turns into a long term contract. You don’t really feel any of that cap pain until the 6th or 7th year. If you draft and they bust or end up like Fields, you’re way better off starting over with another drafted QB."

Hit rate for 1st round QBs is low, like 33%. #1 pick hit rate jumps significantly to 55%. So unless you're the freakin' Green Bay Packers, you can expect to draft a good, not great QB every 12 years or so given the 3-4 year timeframe for rookie contracts.. I just don't think that kind of drafting failure rate is sustainable unless teams are willing to expend massive amounts of draft capital toward the QB position at the expense of the other premium positions.

Yes, the hit rate is low. So are the odds of sustained team success in the NFL. What’s the alternative? Pay mediocre QBs $40M+ to lock in the purgatory of franchise mediocrity?

If your goal is to win between 6 and 10 wins with an occasional playoff appearance to keep the fan base semi interested, it’s a great idea.

There will always be a market for bridge QBs, but unfortunately for Fields he doesn’t really fit any of the available openings this year. It’s bad timing for him.

 

[menobrown]

Vikings-Darnold and Zach Wilson

This is a joke, right?
I have some hope for Darnold but good gawd ZW should not get another contract. (Probably will as a backup but shouldn’t)

A lot of people linking Darnold to Vikings so that part is not a joke.

Wilson should not be counted on to be anyone's backup QB but a good reclamation project as a #3 IMO. He'll either be cut or the Jets will have to pay someone to a day three pick to take his contract off their hands. Like I said this comes from a Jets beat reporter but when I read this I thought he was off base on a lot of his predictions and Zach was one of them. Mac Jones, that makes a lot more sense to me since he at one point at least showed something.

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

Vikings-Darnold and Zach Wilson

This is a joke, right?
I have some hope for Darnold but good gawd ZW should not get another contract. (Probably will as a backup but shouldn’t)

A lot of people linking Darnold to Vikings so that part is not a joke.

Wilson should not be counted on to be anyone's backup QB but a good reclamation project as a #3 IMO. He'll either be cut or the Jets will have to pay someone to a day three pick to take his contract off their hands. Like I said this comes from a Jets beat reporter but when I read this I thought he was off base on a lot of his predictions and Zach was one of them. Mac Jones, that makes a lot more sense to me since he at one point at least showed something.

Woof. I totally missed that part. As a Bears fan and someone who doesn't have shares of Jefferson/Addision/Hockenson, I can only hope that the Vikes go with Darnold/Wilson as their QB competition going into 2024. That's the kind of divisional chaos that I love!

 

[travdogg]

Going with Darnold/Zach over Fields or Wilson, is basically asking/deserving to be fired as a GM. Darnold/Wilson aren't better than Fields AS PASSERS let alone overall.

 

[-OZ-]

Mac Jones, that makes a lot more sense to me since he at one point at least showed something.

I’d be fairly happy with Mac backing up Levis, as should any team really. Watch him go backup purdy.

 

[GreenNGold]

The problem with Fields is if you ship a decent pick, and you’re right about it and he has a good season, your prize is you have to pay him like Daniel Jones money immediately.

Want to pay to enter a contest in hell? Step right this way.

Personally I think we are seeing the league finally adjust against paying these very mediocre, can’t win QBs, big time money. It’s the next major market correction ala Running Backs and it’s already underway.

If a team is right about him, they should gladly pay Daniel Jones like money (assuming he proves it on the field). Every team needs a franchise QB that they can pay top money to for 10-15 years, and every team that doesn't have one is desperately looking for one, that is how teams stay relevant. This new idea that you only have a 3 year window after drafting a new QB is absurd.

 

[Da Franchise]

The problem with Fields is if you ship a decent pick, and you’re right about it and he has a good season, your prize is you have to pay him like Daniel Jones money immediately.

Want to pay to enter a contest in hell? Step right this way.

Personally I think we are seeing the league finally adjust against paying these very mediocre, can’t win QBs, big time money. It’s the next major market correction ala Running Backs and it’s already underway.

If a team is right about him, they should gladly pay Daniel Jones like money (assuming he proves it on the field). Every team needs a franchise QB that they can pay top money to for 10-15 years, and every team that doesn't have one is desperately looking for one, that is how teams stay relevant. This new idea that you only have a 3 year window after drafting a new QB is absurd.

I expanded my point in my next post and it addresses all of this.

 

[GreenNGold]

The problem with Fields is if you ship a decent pick, and you’re right about it and he has a good season, your prize is you have to pay him like Daniel Jones money immediately.

Want to pay to enter a contest in hell? Step right this way.

Personally I think we are seeing the league finally adjust against paying these very mediocre, can’t win QBs, big time money. It’s the next major market correction ala Running Backs and it’s already underway.

If a team is right about him, they should gladly pay Daniel Jones like money (assuming he proves it on the field). Every team needs a franchise QB that they can pay top money to for 10-15 years, and every team that doesn't have one is desperately looking for one, that is how teams stay relevant. This new idea that you only have a 3 year window after drafting a new QB is absurd.

I expanded my point in my next post and it addresses all of this.

Sorry I wasn't trying to single you out, I was just responding in general to something I've heard a lot lately. I do agree some more with expanded post, but I also think it's extremely hard to correctly identify a QB pick who can just jump into the league and win right away, it has happened a couple times recently but remains extremely rare. Most successful teams are going to have a franchise QB taking up a large portion of their salary cap for a long time, and many of them will still never win a superbowl. Of course, finding a franchise QB is the hard part. I still think Fields is good enough to be one (and they still have time before they would need to commit too much to him long-term) and the Bears are making a mistake by moving on too quickly. Time will tell.

 

[Max Power]

The problem with Fields is if you ship a decent pick, and you’re right about it and he has a good season, your prize is you have to pay him like Daniel Jones money immediately.

Want to pay to enter a contest in hell? Step right this way.

Personally I think we are seeing the league finally adjust against paying these very mediocre, can’t win QBs, big time money. It’s the next major market correction ala Running Backs and it’s already underway.

Fields would probably get his 5th year option picked up if he is traded. $25 Mil for a QB isn't terrible. That gives a team two years to figure out what to do with him and what his true value is.

I'm also worried the league is moving into a "lottery ticket" QB agenda. One where teams keep going to the drawing board and draft a fresh face every 3-4 years hoping to hit a homerun vs developing a good, but not great QB and putting a solid roster around them. GB might be looking at 40 years of solid QB play with 3 QBs using a draft and develop style that the rest of the league can't seem to figure out.

Bears have mismanaged JF since day 1. I worry they will follow the same pattern with Williams.

I mean, the league IS moving toward that method. It’s the one that makes the most sense with the pay scale the way it is. Best way to win is having a franchise QB on a rookie deal that turns into a long term contract. You don’t really feel any of that cap pain until the 6th or 7th year. If you draft and they bust or end up like Fields, you’re way better off starting over with another drafted QB.

For Fields specifically- sure any acquiring team will pick up the option. Then what? You’ve given up a 3rd round pick and $25M. He has a decent year and your team goes 8-9. He’s heading into the last year of his deal. What are you gonna do? It’s either extend him for big money, wait and play the tag game, or let him walk. The ONLY outcome where it made any sense to acquire him in the first place is if he becomes a legit, obvious franchise QB. Anybody really like the odds of that happening? I sure don’t.

Just because he’s not Nathan Peterman bad doesn’t mean he’s going to have a starting spot in todays league. For years I’ve been saying the Andy Daltons (Bengals) and Mac Jones and Daniel Jones etc are the worst QBs you could have. They cost money, are good enough your team doesn’t suck enough to get a high pick, but never give you a chance of actually winning anything that matters. The league is phasing this group out and rightly so.

"I mean, the league IS moving toward that method. It’s the one that makes the most sense with the pay scale the way it is. Best way to win is having a franchise QB on a rookie deal that turns into a long term contract. You don’t really feel any of that cap pain until the 6th or 7th year. If you draft and they bust or end up like Fields, you’re way better off starting over with another drafted QB."

Hit rate for 1st round QBs is low, like 33%. #1 pick hit rate jumps significantly to 55%. So unless you're the freakin' Green Bay Packers, you can expect to draft a good, not great QB every 12 years or so given the 3-4 year timeframe for rookie contracts.. I just don't think that kind of drafting failure rate is sustainable unless teams are willing to expend massive amounts of draft capital toward the QB position at the expense of the other premium positions.

Yes, the hit rate is low. So are the odds of sustained team success in the NFL. What’s the alternative? Pay mediocre QBs $40M+ to lock in the purgatory of franchise mediocrity?

If your goal is to win between 6 and 10 wins with an occasional playoff appearance to keep the fan base semi interested, it’s a great idea.

There will always be a market for bridge QBs, but unfortunately for Fields he doesn’t really fit any of the available openings this year. It’s bad timing for him.

There are teams paying their QBs 50 mil that aren't winning in the playoffs either. Sometimes the NFL is about getting hot at the right time.

There are teams about to sign Mayfield, Cousins and Wilson tier players for 45mil + a year. Why? Because it's their best option. Otherwise they are spending a premium pick on someone like Bo Nix or Penix who are both only slightly younger than JF but people fool themselves into thinking they have Franchise potential.
There is also the team building aspect to it. Players don't want to play for organizations that are constantly rebuilding. Thats how teams end up overpaying mediocre players which isn't sustainable either.

 

[menobrown]

Going with Darnold/Zach over Fields or Wilson, is basically asking/deserving to be fired as a GM. Darnold/Wilson aren't better than Fields AS PASSERS let alone overall.

I'd rather have Darnold running a McVay offense.

Fields has been getting people fired left and right.

 

[Da Franchise]

The problem with Fields is if you ship a decent pick, and you’re right about it and he has a good season, your prize is you have to pay him like Daniel Jones money immediately.

Want to pay to enter a contest in hell? Step right this way.

Personally I think we are seeing the league finally adjust against paying these very mediocre, can’t win QBs, big time money. It’s the next major market correction ala Running Backs and it’s already underway.

If a team is right about him, they should gladly pay Daniel Jones like money (assuming he proves it on the field). Every team needs a franchise QB that they can pay top money to for 10-15 years, and every team that doesn't have one is desperately looking for one, that is how teams stay relevant. This new idea that you only have a 3 year window after drafting a new QB is absurd.

I expanded my point in my next post and it addresses all of this.

Sorry I wasn't trying to single you out, I was just responding in general to something I've heard a lot lately. I do agree some more with expanded post, but I also think it's extremely hard to correctly identify a QB pick who can just jump into the league and win right away, it has happened a couple times recently but remains extremely rare. Most successful teams are going to have a franchise QB taking up a large portion of their salary cap for a long time, and many of them will still never win a superbowl. Of course, finding a franchise QB is the hard part. I still think Fields is good enough to be one (and they still have time before they would need to commit too much to him long-term) and the Bears are making a mistake by moving on too quickly. Time will tell.

Agree it’s rare. Just gotta keep trying until you hit. If you think Fields is good enough to be a franchise QB that can get you to a Super Bowl or consistently threaten in the playoffs, that’s cool but we aren’t talking about the same thing.

It’s hard for me to keep going around on this trying to consolidate 25 years of Skins message board debates into a few posts lol. What I’m saying here is the condensed product of all of that. And it sure seems to me the league is beginning to act accordingly.

 

[Da Franchise]

The problem with Fields is if you ship a decent pick, and you’re right about it and he has a good season, your prize is you have to pay him like Daniel Jones money immediately.

Want to pay to enter a contest in hell? Step right this way.

Personally I think we are seeing the league finally adjust against paying these very mediocre, can’t win QBs, big time money. It’s the next major market correction ala Running Backs and it’s already underway.

Fields would probably get his 5th year option picked up if he is traded. $25 Mil for a QB isn't terrible. That gives a team two years to figure out what to do with him and what his true value is.

I'm also worried the league is moving into a "lottery ticket" QB agenda. One where teams keep going to the drawing board and draft a fresh face every 3-4 years hoping to hit a homerun vs developing a good, but not great QB and putting a solid roster around them. GB might be looking at 40 years of solid QB play with 3 QBs using a draft and develop style that the rest of the league can't seem to figure out.

Bears have mismanaged JF since day 1. I worry they will follow the same pattern with Williams.

I mean, the league IS moving toward that method. It’s the one that makes the most sense with the pay scale the way it is. Best way to win is having a franchise QB on a rookie deal that turns into a long term contract. You don’t really feel any of that cap pain until the 6th or 7th year. If you draft and they bust or end up like Fields, you’re way better off starting over with another drafted QB.

For Fields specifically- sure any acquiring team will pick up the option. Then what? You’ve given up a 3rd round pick and $25M. He has a decent year and your team goes 8-9. He’s heading into the last year of his deal. What are you gonna do? It’s either extend him for big money, wait and play the tag game, or let him walk. The ONLY outcome where it made any sense to acquire him in the first place is if he becomes a legit, obvious franchise QB. Anybody really like the odds of that happening? I sure don’t.

Just because he’s not Nathan Peterman bad doesn’t mean he’s going to have a starting spot in todays league. For years I’ve been saying the Andy Daltons (Bengals) and Mac Jones and Daniel Jones etc are the worst QBs you could have. They cost money, are good enough your team doesn’t suck enough to get a high pick, but never give you a chance of actually winning anything that matters. The league is phasing this group out and rightly so.

"I mean, the league IS moving toward that method. It’s the one that makes the most sense with the pay scale the way it is. Best way to win is having a franchise QB on a rookie deal that turns into a long term contract. You don’t really feel any of that cap pain until the 6th or 7th year. If you draft and they bust or end up like Fields, you’re way better off starting over with another drafted QB."

Hit rate for 1st round QBs is low, like 33%. #1 pick hit rate jumps significantly to 55%. So unless you're the freakin' Green Bay Packers, you can expect to draft a good, not great QB every 12 years or so given the 3-4 year timeframe for rookie contracts.. I just don't think that kind of drafting failure rate is sustainable unless teams are willing to expend massive amounts of draft capital toward the QB position at the expense of the other premium positions.

Yes, the hit rate is low. So are the odds of sustained team success in the NFL. What’s the alternative? Pay mediocre QBs $40M+ to lock in the purgatory of franchise mediocrity?

If your goal is to win between 6 and 10 wins with an occasional playoff appearance to keep the fan base semi interested, it’s a great idea.

There will always be a market for bridge QBs, but unfortunately for Fields he doesn’t really fit any of the available openings this year. It’s bad timing for him.

There are teams paying their QBs 50 mil that aren't winning in the playoffs either. Sometimes the NFL is about getting hot at the right time.

There are teams about to sign Mayfield, Cousins and Wilson tier players for 45mil + a year. Why? Because it's their best option. Otherwise they are spending a premium pick on someone like Bo Nix or Penix who are both only slightly younger than JF but people fool themselves into thinking they have Franchise potential.
There is also the team building aspect to it. Players don't want to play for organizations that are constantly rebuilding. Thats how teams end up overpaying mediocre players which isn't sustainable either.

I’ll just point out that Denver is paying Russ a whole bunch of money specifically NOT to play. No one else is going to pay him much of anything to actually play either. File this under lessons learned by franchises.

Cousins is pretty much the floor for this argument. He’s good enough to pay but just barely and he still has never really threatened to take a team anywhere meaningful. He produces well enough though you can reasonably talk yourself into it.

Mayfield is an interesting case. Might be a Cousins, will likely be a Dalton. Wouldn’t fault the incumbent team to pay him for two years trying to find out. Especially when you’re picking in the late-ish 1st round. I doubt he would have a robust market outside of Tampa though.

 

[osubuckeyeman]

Going with Darnold/Zach over Fields or Wilson, is basically asking/deserving to be fired as a GM. Darnold/Wilson aren't better than Fields AS PASSERS let alone overall.

I'd rather have Darnold running a McVay offense.

Fields has been getting people fired left and right.

The problem with Fields is if you ship a decent pick, and you’re right about it and he has a good season, your prize is you have to pay him like Daniel Jones money immediately.

Want to pay to enter a contest in hell? Step right this way.

Personally I think we are seeing the league finally adjust against paying these very mediocre, can’t win QBs, big time money. It’s the next major market correction ala Running Backs and it’s already underway.

Then draft rookies. If you trade for him you want to have to pay him. He is 6 million this year and if you pick up his option around 21 million or so for his 5th year. Pretty cheap for 2 years. Then yes if he is the QB you hoped he is you pay him 170 million. The price would be more than Daniel Jones in two years and you WANT that to be the case. Or just cycle rookies.

 

[travdogg]

Going with Darnold/Zach over Fields or Wilson, is basically asking/deserving to be fired as a GM. Darnold/Wilson aren't better than Fields AS PASSERS let alone overall.

I'd rather have Darnold running a McVay offense.

Fields has been getting people fired left and right.

Why? Fields is a lot more accurate than Darnold, makes better decisions, and has a FAR better deep ball. Not even getting into mobility.

Who are these people getting fired left and right because of Fields? Getsy and...? Meanwhile Sam Darnold clearly got Adam Gase and his entire staff fired.

Any team thinking about Darnold as a starter immediately needs to fire their GM. Darnold is a lower end backup, barely an NFL caliber player, who does almost nothing well. There are 20+ available QBs (counting the draft) better than Darnold. The only good thing I can say for Darnold is he's better than Zach Wilson, who has no business in the NFL.

 

[menobrown]

Why? Fields is a lot more accurate than Darnold, makes better decisions

Not even close.

 

[JohnnyU]

Why? Fields is a lot more accurate than Darnold, makes better decisions

Not even close.

Darnold sucks, but so does Fields as a passer. Fields is light years more desirable as a fantasy player, but you already knew that. Not trying to insult anyone’s fantasy intelligence.

 

[menobrown]

Why? Fields is a lot more accurate than Darnold, makes better decisions

Not even close.

Darnold sucks, but so does Fields as a passer. Fields is light years more desirable as a fantasy player, but you already knew that. Not trying to insult anyone’s fantasy intelligence.

Not talking about fantasy.

 

[JohnnyU]

Why? Fields is a lot more accurate than Darnold, makes better decisions

Not even close.

Darnold sucks, but so does Fields as a passer. Fields is light years more desirable as a fantasy player, but you already knew that. Not trying to insult anyone’s fantasy intelligence.

Not talking about fantasy.

I know.

 

[JohnnyU]

Why? Fields is a lot more accurate than Darnold, makes better decisions

Not even close.

Darnold sucks, but so does Fields as a passer. Fields is light years more desirable as a fantasy player, but you already knew that. Not trying to insult anyone’s fantasy intelligence.

Not talking about fantasy.

I know.

We know what Darnold is and some feel Fields can improve. I’m not convinced.

 

[menobrown]

Why? Fields is a lot more accurate than Darnold, makes better decisions

Not even close.

Darnold sucks, but so does Fields as a passer. Fields is light years more desirable as a fantasy player, but you already knew that. Not trying to insult anyone’s fantasy intelligence.

Not talking about fantasy.

I know.

I would add thats why people on a fantasy message board think Fields is better then he is because he's really good at fantasy and I think that has really distorted opinions on him. As well as long suffering Bears fans who don't know what a good QB looks like.

 

[JohnnyU]

Why? Fields is a lot more accurate than Darnold, makes better decisions

Not even close.

Darnold sucks, but so does Fields as a passer. Fields is light years more desirable as a fantasy player, but you already knew that. Not trying to insult anyone’s fantasy intelligence.

Not talking about fantasy.

I know.

I would add thats why people on a fantasy message board think Fields is better then he is because he's really good at fantasy and I think that has really distorted opinions on him. As well as long suffering Bears fans who don't know what a good QB looks like.

I have no preconceived idea that Fields is better than he is beyond fantasy and that is all I care about since I’m not a Bears fan.

 

[travdogg]

Why? Fields is a lot more accurate than Darnold, makes better decisions

Not even close.

I honestly don't even know which part you could be disagreeing with.

Darnold has a lower completion percentage for his career, despite also having a lower average depth of target, and has a higher rate of INTs than Fields. Darnold has also had multiple staffs give up on him.

Fields is a better passer than Darnold, and he's a significantly better overall QB.

 

[menobrown]

I honestly don't even know which part you could be disagreeing with.

The whole thing I quoted.

 

[travdogg]

I honestly don't even know which part you could be disagreeing with.

The whole thing I quoted.

Could you give any reason why?

 

[menobrown]

Fields is a better passer than Darnold, and he's a significantly better overall QB.

No he's not.

 

[JohnnyU]

Fields is a better passer than Darnold, and he's a significantly better overall QB.

No he's not.

Why are you supporting Darnold?

 

[menobrown]

I honestly don't even know which part you could be disagreeing with.

The whole thing I quoted.

Could you give any reason why?

I think it's frankly easy to see. It's also why he got way more in a trade from Carolina then Fields is going to get back because it's pretty easy to see.

You have no shortages of excuses for Fields. Never his fault.

Darnold was in mess with the Jets. You like to try and make an argument that no team trotted out worse WR weapons then the Bears before they got Moore but I don't think any team has worse weapons over a multi year career then Darnold did with the Jets.

 

[menobrown]

Fields is a better passer than Darnold, and he's a significantly better overall QB.

No he's not.

Why are you supporting Darnold?

It's all relative but if you don't care move on.

 

[JohnnyU]

Fields is a better passer than Darnold, and he's a significantly better overall QB.

No he's not.

Why are you supporting Darnold?

It's all relative but if you don't care move on.

Wow

 

[efactor]

I honestly don't even know which part you could be disagreeing with.

The whole thing I quoted.

Could you give any reason why?

I think it's frankly easy to see. It's also why he got way more in a trade from Carolina then Fields is going to get back because it's pretty easy to see.

Don’t think the fact that Carolina was stupid is an indicator that Darnold is better than Fields.

Dolphins gave up a 2nd and a 5th for Josh Rosen. Doesn’t t make him better than Fields

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

Going with Darnold/Zach over Fields or Wilson, is basically asking/deserving to be fired as a GM. Darnold/Wilson aren't better than Fields AS PASSERS let alone overall.

I'd rather have Darnold running a McVay offense.

Fields has been getting people fired left and

Fields hasn't gotten anyone fired. Nagy/Pace and crew were dead men walking before Fields took his first snap. Getsy was woefully unprepared to be an OC and then had the audacity to stubbornly stick to "his system". Dude got himself fired. I usually appreciate your thoughtful opinions, but this take is just way, way off.

 

[menobrown]

Going with Darnold/Zach over Fields or Wilson, is basically asking/deserving to be fired as a GM. Darnold/Wilson aren't better than Fields AS PASSERS let alone overall.

I'd rather have Darnold running a McVay offense.

Fields has been getting people fired left and

Fields hasn't gotten anyone fired. Nagy/Pace and crew were dead men walking before Fields took his first snap. Getsy was woefully unprepared to be an OC and then had the audacity to stubbornly stick to "his system". Dude got himself fired. I usually appreciate your thoughtful opinions, but this take is just way, way off.

Yes that's 3 people, thanks for the listing them, all who were quickly hired back in the NFL.

Meanwhile, Gase is out of the league, out of coaching as far as I know.

 

[menobrown]

I honestly don't even know which part you could be disagreeing with.

The whole thing I quoted.

Could you give any reason why?

I think it's frankly easy to see. It's also why he got way more in a trade from Carolina then Fields is going to get back because it's pretty easy to see.

Don’t think the fact that Carolina was stupid is an indicator that Darnold is better than Fields.

Dolphins gave up a 2nd and a 5th for Josh Rosen. Doesn’t t make him better than Fields

Rosen only had a year when he was dealt longer on his contract. In hindsight yes he's worse then Fields but other things impacted that trade.

Either way just more excuse for Fields. If//when he gets less in a trade it's already being said it's because no teams are stupid any longer. Got it.

 

[-OZ-]

We know what Darnold is

Call me but I don’t think we do

 

[menobrown]

I am done here now. Really just posted that stuff about multiple people not thinking Fields will get a guaranteed starting job as a public service to let people get ahead of the curve. Not to get pulled into a Darnold vs Fields convo.

He's a very likeable guy and a really good fantasy QB. I don't think he's very good in real life and have been trying to hammer home here for awhile that he's not got a market. I've said my peace, I'm out.

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

Going with Darnold/Zach over Fields or Wilson, is basically asking/deserving to be fired as a GM. Darnold/Wilson aren't better than Fields AS PASSERS let alone overall.

I'd rather have Darnold running a McVay offense.

Fields has been getting people fired left and

Fields hasn't gotten anyone fired. Nagy/Pace and crew were dead men walking before Fields took his first snap. Getsy was woefully unprepared to be an OC and then had the audacity to stubbornly stick to "his system". Dude got himself fired. I usually appreciate your thoughtful opinions, but this take is just way, way off.

Yes that's 3 people, thanks for the listing them, all who were quickly hired back in the NFL.

Meanwhile, Gase is out of the league, out of coaching as far as I know.

Quickly hired by

Going with Darnold/Zach over Fields or Wilson, is basically asking/deserving to be fired as a GM. Darnold/Wilson aren't better than Fields AS PASSERS let alone overall.

I'd rather have Darnold running a McVay offense.

Fields has been getting people fired left and

Fields hasn't gotten anyone fired. Nagy/Pace and crew were dead men walking before Fields took his first snap. Getsy was woefully unprepared to be an OC and then had the audacity to stubbornly stick to "his system". Dude got himself fired. I usually appreciate your thoughtful opinions, but this take is just way, way off.

Yes that's 3 people, thanks for the listing them, all who were quickly hired back in the NFL.

Meanwhile, Gase is out of the league, out of coaching as far as I know.

Right. Nagy ran back to KC where I'm sure Bienemy will end up as well. Pace got a job with Atlanta for a dude he'd worked with. Getsy was hired by Antonio Pierce after the big OC candidates were already gone. He's a guy that has a lot to learn or he'll wash out of the league in 3 years.

All that to say, nice troll job. I bit hook line and sinker.

 

[efactor]

I honestly don't even know which part you could be disagreeing with.

The whole thing I quoted.

Could you give any reason why?

I think it's frankly easy to see. It's also why he got way more in a trade from Carolina then Fields is going to get back because it's pretty easy to see.

Don’t think the fact that Carolina was stupid is an indicator that Darnold is better than Fields.

Dolphins gave up a 2nd and a 5th for Josh Rosen. Doesn’t t make him better than Fields

Rosen only had a year when he was dealt longer on his contract. In hindsight yes he's worse then Fields but other things impacted that trade.

Either way just more excuse for Fields. If//when he gets less in a trade it's already being said it's because no teams are stupid any longer. Got it.

Teams are still obliviously stupid. Broncos and Browns giving up massive draft capital AND having to pay massive salaries for vets with question marks. But to say Darnold is better than Fields because a team overpaid for him is off base IMO

 

[menobrown]

Going with Darnold/Zach over Fields or Wilson, is basically asking/deserving to be fired as a GM. Darnold/Wilson aren't better than Fields AS PASSERS let alone overall.

I'd rather have Darnold running a McVay offense.

Fields has been getting people fired left and

Fields hasn't gotten anyone fired. Nagy/Pace and crew were dead men walking before Fields took his first snap. Getsy was woefully unprepared to be an OC and then had the audacity to stubbornly stick to "his system". Dude got himself fired. I usually appreciate your thoughtful opinions, but this take is just way, way off.

Yes that's 3 people, thanks for the listing them, all who were quickly hired back in the NFL.

Meanwhile, Gase is out of the league, out of coaching as far as I know.

Quickly hired by

Going with Darnold/Zach over Fields or Wilson, is basically asking/deserving to be fired as a GM. Darnold/Wilson aren't better than Fields AS PASSERS let alone overall.

I'd rather have Darnold running a McVay offense.

Fields has been getting people fired left and

Fields hasn't gotten anyone fired. Nagy/Pace and crew were dead men walking before Fields took his first snap. Getsy was woefully unprepared to be an OC and then had the audacity to stubbornly stick to "his system". Dude got himself fired. I usually appreciate your thoughtful opinions, but this take is just way, way off.

Yes that's 3 people, thanks for the listing them, all who were quickly hired back in the NFL.

Meanwhile, Gase is out of the league, out of coaching as far as I know.

Right. Nagy ran back to KC where I'm sure Bienemy will end up as well. Pace got a job with Atlanta for a dude he'd worked with. Getsy was hired by Antonio Pierce after the big OC candidates were already gone. He's a guy that has a lot to learn or he'll wash out of the league in 3 years.

All that to say, nice troll job. I bit hook line and sinker.

Going with Darnold/Zach over Fields or Wilson, is basically asking/deserving to be fired as a GM. Darnold/Wilson aren't better than Fields AS PASSERS let alone overall.

I'd rather have Darnold running a McVay offense.

Fields has been getting people fired left and

Fields hasn't gotten anyone fired. Nagy/Pace and crew were dead men walking before Fields took his first snap. Getsy was woefully unprepared to be an OC and then had the audacity to stubbornly stick to "his system". Dude got himself fired. I usually appreciate your thoughtful opinions, but this take is just way, way off.

Yes that's 3 people, thanks for the listing them, all who were quickly hired back in the NFL.

Meanwhile, Gase is out of the league, out of coaching as far as I know.

Quickly hired by

Going with Darnold/Zach over Fields or Wilson, is basically asking/deserving to be fired as a GM. Darnold/Wilson aren't better than Fields AS PASSERS let alone overall.

I'd rather have Darnold running a McVay offense.

Fields has been getting people fired left and

Fields hasn't gotten anyone fired. Nagy/Pace and crew were dead men walking before Fields took his first snap. Getsy was woefully unprepared to be an OC and then had the audacity to stubbornly stick to "his system". Dude got himself fired. I usually appreciate your thoughtful opinions, but this take is just way, way off.

Yes that's 3 people, thanks for the listing them, all who were quickly hired back in the NFL.

Meanwhile, Gase is out of the league, out of coaching as far as I know.

Right. Nagy ran back to KC where I'm sure Bienemy will end up as well. Pace got a job with Atlanta for a dude he'd worked with. Getsy was hired by Antonio Pierce after the big OC candidates were already gone. He's a guy that has a lot to learn or he'll wash out of the league in 3 years.

All that to say, nice troll job. I bit hook line and sinker.

I said I was done but I find being called a troll insulting and will address it.

Yes, those coaches got hired. KC could not wait to get Nagy back and was not going to pick up Beinemy's contract, they wanted him to take the DC job. He's now at UCLA. Try to keep up.

I have no idea why getting hired by Pierce is a negative or why getting hired why people you worked with is considered a negative and not a positive. Oddball rebuttal.

 

[travdogg]

I'll stand by the idea that Fields is still very much in play for the Raiders. I don't see Getsy's presence as a reason why they wouldn't go after him. He's had him 2 years, both of which showed improvement, and while I personally wasn't impressed with Getsy, it sure seems like he and Fields got along after butting heads a little bit early in the season. The Raiders don't pick high enough for any of the top-4 QBs, and if the trade market stuff is true, Fields would cost less in draft capital than Nix/Penix, despite only being one year older than them, maybe the 77th pick, and a 2025 3rd? Also of note, the assistant GM was with the Bears when Fields was drafted, so that's another possible dot connect.

Fields took a step forward when DJ Moore showed up, and the Raiders weapons are a lot better, with Adams/Meyers/Mayer, than what he had last year in Chicago. The Raiders want to be a run the ball and play defense, with PA deep shots team.

I think its Fields or Wilson in Las Vegas.