QB Justin Herbert, LAC (1 Viewer)

[King of the Jungle]

The league may be different, but Harbaugh & Roman are strong personalities that I do not expect to change. They will be determined to be physical and run the ball. Yes, they will throw the ball at times as well. I just do not think it will be enough to push Herbert into the top 10 in FF. It will take a lot of red zones TDs and maybe an uptick in rushing TDs to do so imo.

I know what Harbaugh wants to do.

But that doesn’t mean the Chargers are built to do it.

Way I see it they have Gus Edwards, a never healthy Dobbins, with Vidal & Spiller behind them. That’s a pretty unexciting RB Room.

And the defense is a work in progress. I like some of the pieces they added, but that defensive unit was more than a couple of rookies away from greatness.

Every coach wants to play old school smash mouth football & run run run till daddy takes the t-bird away, but that’s hard to do when you’re down a couple scores and/or can’t hold a lead.

I’mma plant a flag on 4400 PaYd, 34 PaTD, 250 RuYd, 3 RuTD

That should catch the top 10

I like your optimism, either way they should be interesting to watch this year.

 

[Tau837]

IMO:

• Herbert will average the fewest passing attempts per game in his career
• He will be throwing to the weakest set of targets in his career
• The Chargers will have more rushing attempts than in any season of Herbert's career
• The Chargers will be content to win games with defense and running game when they can

That is a recipe for a fantasy season outside the top 10 QBs, and that is what I am expecting. I think the Harbaugh/Roman/Minter approach will work well in real life NFL, but not so much for fantasy.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

IMO:

• Herbert will average the fewest passing attempts per game in his career
• He will be throwing to the weakest set of targets in his career
• The Chargers will have more rushing attempts than in any season of Herbert's career
• The Chargers will be content to win games with defense and running game when they can

That is a recipe for a fantasy season outside the top 10 QBs, and that is what I am expecting. I think the Harbaugh/Roman/Minter approach will work well in real life NFL, but not so much for fantasy.

Could happen.

Again, what Harbaugh wants to do and how that team is constructed seem like 2 different things.

I don’t see how Herbert will have so few passing attempts with that defensive unit, but I could be wrong. Happens all the time.

You are certainly on the side of the narrative I see everywhere, so I’m probably way out in left field.

 

[kutta]

I heard an interview with Harbaugh on I think it was Cowherd’s show when he first got hired. All he talked about was Herbert and what a luxury it was to have a QB like him.
I’m agreeing with @Hot Sauce Guy. I think great coaches build around what they have, and when you have a really great QB, you don’t let him die on the vine because you have a particular style. You utilize him in the best way you can to win games.

 

[Tau837]

I absolutely believe Harbaugh values Herbert and will make him the centerpiece of the offense. But what a lot of people may miss is that dropping back 60-65% of the time instead of 70-75% of the time is still the centerpiece of the offense. I think Harbaugh/Roman will use Herbert plenty, but with a focus to make his usage more efficient while also controlling the pace of the game. I expect that will mean lower volume, higher efficiency. From a fantasy perspective, the question is, does the higher efficiency balance out the lower volume, and where does that balance leave him as a fantasy QB?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I absolutely believe Harbaugh values Herbert and will make him the centerpiece of the offense. But what a lot of people may miss is that dropping back 60-65% of the time instead of 70-75% of the time is still the centerpiece of the offense. I think Harbaugh/Roman will use Herbert plenty, but with a focus to make his usage more efficient while also controlling the pace of the game. I expect that will mean lower volume, higher efficiency. From a fantasy perspective, the question is, does the higher efficiency balance out the lower volume, and where does that balance leave him as a fantasy QB?

And again, respectfully, this will only work if the Chargers run game and defense are good enough to make it work

Both, in my humble opinion, are not.

Harbaugh/roman can want to drop back 50%, but that may not be a luxury they have. It’ll be interesting to see how things go - I fully agree with you about how Harbaugh/Roman want to run the offense. I just think it remains to be seen if that’s realistic for this chargers team.

 

[TheWinz]

I heard an interview with Harbaugh on I think it was Cowherd’s show when he first got hired. All he talked about was Herbert and what a luxury it was to have a QB like him.
I’m agreeing with @Hot Sauce Guy. I think great coaches build around what they have, and when you have a really great QB, you don’t let him die on the vine because you have a particular style. You utilize him in the best way you can to win games.

Greg Roman has been an OC for 10 seasons. Here are the QB's he had, based on amount of games they started for him:
Lamar Jackson - 54
Colin Kaepernick - 39
Tyrod Taylor - 29
Alex Smith - 25
Tyler Huntley - 8
EJ Manuel - 3
Robert Griffin - 2
Anthony Brown - 1
Josh Johnson - 1

Looking at that list, which one is the closest comp to Justin Herbert?

 

[eighsse2]

I heard an interview with Harbaugh on I think it was Cowherd’s show when he first got hired. All he talked about was Herbert and what a luxury it was to have a QB like him.
I’m agreeing with @Hot Sauce Guy. I think great coaches build around what they have, and when you have a really great QB, you don’t let him die on the vine because you have a particular style. You utilize him in the best way you can to win games.

Greg Roman has been an OC for 10 seasons. Here are the QB's he had, based on amount of games they started for him:
Lamar Jackson - 54
Colin Kaepernick - 39
Tyrod Taylor - 29
Alex Smith - 25
Tyler Huntley - 8
EJ Manuel - 3
Robert Griffin - 2
Anthony Brown - 1
Josh Johnson - 1

Looking at that list, which one is the closest comp to Justin Herbert?

Had to bring race into it.

 

[TheWinz]

I heard an interview with Harbaugh on I think it was Cowherd’s show when he first got hired. All he talked about was Herbert and what a luxury it was to have a QB like him.
I’m agreeing with @Hot Sauce Guy. I think great coaches build around what they have, and when you have a really great QB, you don’t let him die on the vine because you have a particular style. You utilize him in the best way you can to win games.

Greg Roman has been an OC for 10 seasons. Here are the QB's he had, based on amount of games they started for him:
Lamar Jackson - 54
Colin Kaepernick - 39
Tyrod Taylor - 29
Alex Smith - 25
Tyler Huntley - 8
EJ Manuel - 3
Robert Griffin - 2
Anthony Brown - 1
Josh Johnson - 1

Looking at that list, which one is the closest comp to Justin Herbert?

Had to bring race into it.

Playing style, hahaha

 

[Tau837]

I absolutely believe Harbaugh values Herbert and will make him the centerpiece of the offense. But what a lot of people may miss is that dropping back 60-65% of the time instead of 70-75% of the time is still the centerpiece of the offense. I think Harbaugh/Roman will use Herbert plenty, but with a focus to make his usage more efficient while also controlling the pace of the game. I expect that will mean lower volume, higher efficiency. From a fantasy perspective, the question is, does the higher efficiency balance out the lower volume, and where does that balance leave him as a fantasy QB?

And again, respectfully, this will only work if the Chargers run game and defense are good enough to make it work

Both, in my humble opinion, are not.

Harbaugh/roman can want to drop back 50%, but that may not be a luxury they have. It’ll be interesting to see how things go - I fully agree with you about how Harbaugh/Roman want to run the offense. I just think it remains to be seen if that’s realistic for this chargers team.

IMO:

• The defense is going to be top half of the league, maybe top 10. They are significantly improved in the front 7, and I believe Minter's scheme will yield results much better than Staley's did.
• The running game will be good enough that the Chargers will be in the top half of the league in rushing attempts. They will have a better running scheme and better run blocking than they have had in many years and that will make up for what may reasonably be viewed as a committee of below average RBs.
• Those two things will be enough to limit Herbert's dropbacks to 60-65% of offensive snaps.

 

[Mene]

I wonder how many of the rushing attempts in the Roman offense have been the QB scrambling out of a designed pass. I'm not sure how to look that up, but it would be interesting to see what the true percentage of pass plays called vs run plays called is. It's obviously still going to be a run heavy offense, but I don't expect Herbert to start taking off as much as some of the QB's Roman has had. Knowing that could give a better feel for predicting Herbert's attempts.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

• The defense is going to be top half of the league, maybe top 10. They are significantly improved in the front 7, and I believe Minter's scheme will yield results much better than Staley's did.
• The running game will be good enough that the Chargers will be in the top half of the league in rushing attempts. They will have a better running scheme and better run blocking than they have had in many years and that will make up for what may reasonably be viewed as a committee of below average RBs.
• Those two things will be enough to limit Herbert's dropbacks to 60-65% of offensive snaps.

I don’t see that defense as dramatically improved. Scheme effectiveness is TBD.

Regarding the RB, Gus Edwards is not a feature back, and Dobbins is coming off a torn Achilles, usually an injury that RB struggle to return to form from. And their rookie vidal seems kind of Jag-ish to me. I do not see them as a top half of the league rushing team.

They can have a good scheme all day long but without the personnel to execute it, they’ll be behind the chains a lot, which will mean passing.

We’ll have to agree to disagree.

 

[King of the Jungle]

What we cannot deny is the history of Harbaugh/Roman, they both want to be physical and run the ball. I think they will be content keeping their defense rested and eating up time of possession. The oline should be improved and their stable of RBs imo are good enough to move the chains if the oline does gel. I am not saying they will not throw the ball, but if they are able to effectively run the ball that is what they are going to do at a clip well above league average. If the defense falters and they fall behind, they have a QB who they can rely in those scenarios. The defense most likely will not be as bad as last year, although that is not saying much.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

How would you guys grade their current receiving group?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

but if they are able to effectively run the ball that is what they are going to do at a clip well above league average

“If” is doing a fair amount of heavy lifting here.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

How would you guys grade their current receiving group?

Seems like it’s impossible to say until we’ve seen them on the field. Right now probably a C-

But if Ladd is as advertised (and can stay healthy) and QJ can take a step forward, they could surprise.

A good QB can also help to elevate a WR room, so I’m waiting to see how they look for a game or two.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

The defense most likely will not be as bad as last year, although that is not saying much.

This is why I believe they’ll still be throwing at a fair clip. There’s just no getting around this.

 

[King of the Jungle]

but if they are able to effectively run the ball that is what they are going to do at a clip well above league average

“If” is doing a fair amount of heavy lifting here.

I would say there are more “if’s” on your projection, but agree to disagree. I hope you’re right, need Herbert to be a decent starting option. But if you think their improved oline and defense stay the same or go backwards I can understand your theory.

Your stating your projections which go against a lot of years of history for Harbaugh/Roman.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Your stating your projections which go against a lot of years of history for Harbaugh/Roman.

My projection above is admittedly bold. But it’s FBG. That’s what we’re here for. Margin of error, for sure. If I’m high by 10% I won’t be shocked, if I’m high by 25% I would be shocked.

And I keep saying it but it bears repeating: the narrative about Harbaugh/Roman is predicated on having an elite defense & run game that can execute that game plan, and I’m not seeing the 2024 Chargers as having either an above average defense or run game.

 

[General Malaise]

Whelp, he just lost his center to retirement. Not great, Bob.

 

[menobrown]

I'm definitely in the down on Herbert for fantasy camp.

Almost every word and every action the Chargers have taken since hiring Harbaugh has involved them telling us what kind of team they want to be. Harbaugh's coachspeak rating is hitting near 100%, no one is smoke screening anyone. I know HSG's pushback about what they want to do vs what game flow dictates they do and I think you are underselling Harbaugh's commitment, he won't abandon the running game.

I for sure buy an argument he'll be more efficient, but it won't be enough and his fantasy ranking vs pass attempts has been lower all but one season, which was his worst fantasy season-last year.

Here are his attempts vs fantasy points

2020-6th in attempts, 9th in scoring
2021-2nd in attempts, 3rd in scoring
2022-2nd in attempts, 12th in scoring
2023-18th in attempts, 16th in scoring

One season above QB9, one season he finished higher in scoring then attempts.

He just replaced Keenan Allen and Mike Williams-granted not available a lot of games, with McConkey who has also had some injury concerns and maybe Brendan Rice with a hope that QJ can improve. He also lost one of the best pass catching RB's in the league.

He's not been that great the last two years, even if you take last year and got with PPG to account for his games missed. I just don't see a world were passing less and having worse weapons is any kind of formula to improve, increased efficiency just won't cover those things and I'll say again he's not been that great for fantasy the last two years.

I own him, always been a big fan, I'm not anti-Herbert the player but after cuts he was one my one QB left in a one start QB league and I'll just say I considered QB my biggest need in that league. I since redrafted Watson who I had cut at the deadline. Not trying to be hot takey here or get off Herbert subject, but it's my belief right now that if Watson's shoulder is ok he'll end up being my top option at QB most weeks.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Whelp, he just lost his center to retirement. Not great, Bob.

Corey Linsley reportedly has a non-emergent heart issue, and from what I've read this was totally expected. He only played in 3 games last year.

The reporting on this is weird.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Not trying to be hot takey here or get off Herbert subject, but it's my belief right now that if Watson's shoulder is ok he'll end up being my top option at QB most weeks.

It’s certainly possible. Watson was a top 5 QB only a few years ago and CLE added weapons.

That said, Watson has looked lost out there, and he seems to get dinged up a lot.

But if we’re talking about a fully healthy & effective Watson, with his rushing upside, I don’t think it’s a particularly hot take to suggest he’d be more valuable for FF.

 

[menobrown]

But if we’re talking about a fully healthy & effective Watson, with his rushing upside, I don’t think it’s a particularly hot take to suggest he’d be more valuable for FF.

Right after I typed that I looked at some recent ADP data and did not realize how close Watson was going to Herbert last few weeks, just getting back into redraft mode after rookie/dynasty drafts and just had not realized the gap had shrunk. But yeah ,not a hot take, in last few days Herbert is going as QB17 and Watson as QB19 with a two round gap. Earlier this off-season it was more like QB10 and QB20 and a stout 6 round gap. So no, not a hot take.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Earlier this off-season it was more like QB10 and QB20 and a stout 6 round gap. So no, not a hot take.

Now, long-term? For dynasty?

Not knowing whether Watson will actually play to his former level, I still prefer Herbert.

But we all have our preferences. Since I’m on an island in here I’m assuming all my Herbert takes are of the high temperature variety.

 

[menobrown]

Earlier this off-season it was more like QB10 and QB20 and a stout 6 round gap. So no, not a hot take.

Now, long-term? For dynasty?

Not knowing whether Watson will actually play to his former level, I still prefer Herbert.

But we all have our preferences. Since I’m on an island in here I’m assuming all my Herbert takes are of the high temperature variety.

Redraft, not best ball, one start QB.

And I don't want to clutter this thread with Watson talk but he was actually solid in his 5 full games last year for fantasy purposes. In real NFL he left a lot to be desired but he's only played 11 full games since he returned, book is not wrote, and majority of those games in some bad weather or with a bum shoulder. I've been very bullish on him this off-season, his recent poor play and general sleaze factor has made him one of my favorite potential bargains. But honestly I don't like going into the season with him or Herbert as my QB1.

I'd still rather have Herbert for the dynasty long haul.

 

[Tau837]

I wonder how many of the rushing attempts in the Roman offense have been the QB scrambling out of a designed pass. I'm not sure how to look that up, but it would be interesting to see what the true percentage of pass plays called vs run plays called is. It's obviously still going to be a run heavy offense, but I don't expect Herbert to start taking off as much as some of the QB's Roman has had. Knowing that could give a better feel for predicting Herbert's attempts.

I will post this later when I have time. Off the top of my head, in 10 seasons as OC, it has fluctuated between ~52% and ~60% called pass plays (pass attempts + sacks + scrambles, where scrambles are separate from designed QB runs). Obviously, he never had a QB like Herbert before, but it is a large sample size. More to follow.

 

[Tau837]

• The defense is going to be top half of the league, maybe top 10. They are significantly improved in the front 7, and I believe Minter's scheme will yield results much better than Staley's did.
• The running game will be good enough that the Chargers will be in the top half of the league in rushing attempts. They will have a better running scheme and better run blocking than they have had in many years and that will make up for what may reasonably be viewed as a committee of below average RBs.
• Those two things will be enough to limit Herbert's dropbacks to 60-65% of offensive snaps.

I don’t see that defense as dramatically improved. Scheme effectiveness is TBD.

Regarding the RB, Gus Edwards is not a feature back, and Dobbins is coming off a torn Achilles, usually an injury that RB struggle to return to form from. And their rookie vidal seems kind of Jag-ish to me. I do not see them as a top half of the league rushing team.

They can have a good scheme all day long but without the personnel to execute it, they’ll be behind the chains a lot, which will mean passing.

We’ll have to agree to disagree.

 

[kutta]

By pretty much all accounts, Herbert had a bad fantasy year last year. The team was a mess and the coaching was horrible.

Yet, if you remove the last game he played when he got hurt, he ended up as the #7 fantasy QB per game, and only 7 total fantasy points from being the #5 QB.

Just saying...

 

[BoltNlava]

By pretty much all accounts, Herbert had a bad fantasy year last year. The team was a mess and the coaching was horrible.

Yet, if you remove the last game he played when he got hurt, he ended up as the #7 fantasy QB per game, and only 7 total fantasy points from being the #5 QB.

Just saying...

Yes but...Almost everything has changed since then. Really you could say everything and only be nitpicked. I think it's a giant step backwards until Harbaugh gets the players he needs/wants.

 

[menobrown]

By pretty much all accounts, Herbert had a bad fantasy year last year. The team was a mess and the coaching was horrible.

Yet, if you remove the last game he played when he got hurt, he ended up as the #7 fantasy QB per game, and only 7 total fantasy points from being the #5 QB.

Just saying...

What I would counter with saying:

He was not that good in fantasy the year previously either. He had excuses/reasons, just saying it was not a one year aberration.

The coaching could be termed awful with respect to playing winning football. I don't feel that is an apt description for the offensive coaching or the impact it had on his fantasy stats.

If you remove his injured game, he averaged 36.58 pass attempts a game which would have put him 6th among teams but literally less then one pass attempt per game of the leader.

My point would be that even before factoring in his possible massive decline in weapons, last year, like almost every year he's played, he's come in less in fantasy rankings then he's come in per attempts. So if he falls down to more in the attempt range of 15-20 I would continue to say I find it hard to see him finishing higher.

 

[Jail]

[
Right after I typed that I looked at some recent ADP data and did not realize how close Watson was going to Herbert last few weeks, just getting back into redraft mode after rookie/dynasty drafts and just had not realized the gap had shrunk. But yeah ,not a hot take, in last few days Herbert is going as QB17 and Watson as QB19 with a two round gap. Earlier this off-season it was more like QB10 and QB20 and a stout 6 round gap. So no, not a hot take.

But if we’re talking about a fully healthy & effective Watson, with his rushing upside, I don’t think it’s a particularly hot take to suggest he’d be more valuable for FF.

Right after I typed that I looked at some recent ADP data and did not realize how close Watson was going to Herbert last few weeks, just getting back into redraft mode after rookie/dynasty drafts and just had not realized the gap had shrunk. But yeah ,not a hot take, in last few days Herbert is going as QB17 and Watson as QB19 with a two round gap. Earlier this off-season it was more like QB10 and QB20 and a stout 6 round gap. So no, not a hot take.

That's actually really nice value getting Herbert at QB 17. Man I'd be happy taking him at qb13 as 1st backup off the board. I do think that his overall numbers are likely to take a hit because of how much Harbaugh wants to run, but if the defense still sucks they're going to have to throw a bunch too.

 

[Ray_T]

IMO:

• Herbert will average the fewest passing attempts per game in his career
• He will be throwing to the weakest set of targets in his career
• The Chargers will have more rushing attempts than in any season of Herbert's career
• The Chargers will be content to win games with defense and running game when they can

That is a recipe for a fantasy season outside the top 10 QBs, and that is what I am expecting. I think the Harbaugh/Roman/Minter approach will work well in real life NFL, but not so much for fantasy.

you are forgetting one thing: if Joe Alt is an impact LT right out of the gate, the protection will be better. So Herbert will have more time to throw. That said, if the WR are not quite as good, this likely means more checkdown throws. so who do you think will be the #1 checkdown Target for Herbert? hes the guy who could be an interesting player to own.

 

[menobrown]

[
Right after I typed that I looked at some recent ADP data and did not realize how close Watson was going to Herbert last few weeks, just getting back into redraft mode after rookie/dynasty drafts and just had not realized the gap had shrunk. But yeah ,not a hot take, in last few days Herbert is going as QB17 and Watson as QB19 with a two round gap. Earlier this off-season it was more like QB10 and QB20 and a stout 6 round gap. So no, not a hot take.

But if we’re talking about a fully healthy & effective Watson, with his rushing upside, I don’t think it’s a particularly hot take to suggest he’d be more valuable for FF.

Right after I typed that I looked at some recent ADP data and did not realize how close Watson was going to Herbert last few weeks, just getting back into redraft mode after rookie/dynasty drafts and just had not realized the gap had shrunk. But yeah ,not a hot take, in last few days Herbert is going as QB17 and Watson as QB19 with a two round gap. Earlier this off-season it was more like QB10 and QB20 and a stout 6 round gap. So no, not a hot take.

That's actually really nice value getting Herbert at QB 17. Man I'd be happy taking him at qb13 as 1st backup off the board. I do think that his overall numbers are likely to take a hit because of how much Harbaugh wants to run, but if the defense still sucks they're going to have to throw a bunch too.

Just FYI, here is QB 11-16 in last few days.

Daniels, Purdy, Caleb, Goff, Tua and Trevor.

Which one of these do you clearly prefer over Herbert?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

[
Right after I typed that I looked at some recent ADP data and did not realize how close Watson was going to Herbert last few weeks, just getting back into redraft mode after rookie/dynasty drafts and just had not realized the gap had shrunk. But yeah ,not a hot take, in last few days Herbert is going as QB17 and Watson as QB19 with a two round gap. Earlier this off-season it was more like QB10 and QB20 and a stout 6 round gap. So no, not a hot take.

But if we’re talking about a fully healthy & effective Watson, with his rushing upside, I don’t think it’s a particularly hot take to suggest he’d be more valuable for FF.

Right after I typed that I looked at some recent ADP data and did not realize how close Watson was going to Herbert last few weeks, just getting back into redraft mode after rookie/dynasty drafts and just had not realized the gap had shrunk. But yeah ,not a hot take, in last few days Herbert is going as QB17 and Watson as QB19 with a two round gap. Earlier this off-season it was more like QB10 and QB20 and a stout 6 round gap. So no, not a hot take.

That's actually really nice value getting Herbert at QB 17. Man I'd be happy taking him at qb13 as 1st backup off the board. I do think that his overall numbers are likely to take a hit because of how much Harbaugh wants to run, but if the defense still sucks they're going to have to throw a bunch too.

Just FYI, here is QB 11-16 in last few days.

Daniels, Purdy, Caleb, Goff, Tua and Trevor.

Which one of these do you clearly prefer over Herbert?

Maybe TLaw or Tua

But Tua stinks against good defenses, and/or in cold weather.

Trevor Lawrence also lost weapons but I also think he had a down year, and is primed for bounce back.

But to your point, I have all of them kind of in the same tier. If I’m talking about superflex dynasty, I’m probably down to TLaw or Herbert.

 

[BoltNlava]

[
Right after I typed that I looked at some recent ADP data and did not realize how close Watson was going to Herbert last few weeks, just getting back into redraft mode after rookie/dynasty drafts and just had not realized the gap had shrunk. But yeah ,not a hot take, in last few days Herbert is going as QB17 and Watson as QB19 with a two round gap. Earlier this off-season it was more like QB10 and QB20 and a stout 6 round gap. So no, not a hot take.

But if we’re talking about a fully healthy & effective Watson, with his rushing upside, I don’t think it’s a particularly hot take to suggest he’d be more valuable for FF.

Right after I typed that I looked at some recent ADP data and did not realize how close Watson was going to Herbert last few weeks, just getting back into redraft mode after rookie/dynasty drafts and just had not realized the gap had shrunk. But yeah ,not a hot take, in last few days Herbert is going as QB17 and Watson as QB19 with a two round gap. Earlier this off-season it was more like QB10 and QB20 and a stout 6 round gap. So no, not a hot take.

That's actually really nice value getting Herbert at QB 17. Man I'd be happy taking him at qb13 as 1st backup off the board. I do think that his overall numbers are likely to take a hit because of how much Harbaugh wants to run, but if the defense still sucks they're going to have to throw a bunch too.

Just FYI, here is QB 11-16 in last few days.

Daniels, Purdy, Caleb, Goff, Tua and Trevor.

Which one of these do you clearly prefer over Herbert?

Maybe TLaw or Tua

But Tua stinks against good defenses, and/or in cold weather.

Trevor Lawrence also lost weapons but I also think he had a down year, and is primed for bounce back.

But to your point, I have all of them kind of in the same tier. If I’m talking about superflex dynasty, I’m probably down to TLaw or Herbert.

Unless we are not privy to anything concerning tlaw that would impact his play last year...I'd lean heavy herbert..right?

 

[BoltNlava]

[
Right after I typed that I looked at some recent ADP data and did not realize how close Watson was going to Herbert last few weeks, just getting back into redraft mode after rookie/dynasty drafts and just had not realized the gap had shrunk. But yeah ,not a hot take, in last few days Herbert is going as QB17 and Watson as QB19 with a two round gap. Earlier this off-season it was more like QB10 and QB20 and a stout 6 round gap. So no, not a hot take.

But if we’re talking about a fully healthy & effective Watson, with his rushing upside, I don’t think it’s a particularly hot take to suggest he’d be more valuable for FF.

Right after I typed that I looked at some recent ADP data and did not realize how close Watson was going to Herbert last few weeks, just getting back into redraft mode after rookie/dynasty drafts and just had not realized the gap had shrunk. But yeah ,not a hot take, in last few days Herbert is going as QB17 and Watson as QB19 with a two round gap. Earlier this off-season it was more like QB10 and QB20 and a stout 6 round gap. So no, not a hot take.

That's actually really nice value getting Herbert at QB 17. Man I'd be happy taking him at qb13 as 1st backup off the board. I do think that his overall numbers are likely to take a hit because of how much Harbaugh wants to run, but if the defense still sucks they're going to have to throw a bunch too.

Just FYI, here is QB 11-16 in last few days.

Daniels, Purdy, Caleb, Goff, Tua and Trevor.

Which one of these do you clearly prefer over Herbert?

Maybe TLaw or Tua

But Tua stinks against good defenses, and/or in cold weather.

Trevor Lawrence also lost weapons but I also think he had a down year, and is primed for bounce back.

But to your point, I have all of them kind of in the same tier. If I’m talking about superflex dynasty, I’m probably down to TLaw or Herbert.

Unless we are not privy to anything concerning tlaw that would impact his play last year...I'd lean heavy herbert..right?

That's even with all the crazy changes on the SD..uhhh La staff. Something about TLaw seems off. Wish I was wise enough to say exactly what but something's not right to my eyes.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

[
Right after I typed that I looked at some recent ADP data and did not realize how close Watson was going to Herbert last few weeks, just getting back into redraft mode after rookie/dynasty drafts and just had not realized the gap had shrunk. But yeah ,not a hot take, in last few days Herbert is going as QB17 and Watson as QB19 with a two round gap. Earlier this off-season it was more like QB10 and QB20 and a stout 6 round gap. So no, not a hot take.

But if we’re talking about a fully healthy & effective Watson, with his rushing upside, I don’t think it’s a particularly hot take to suggest he’d be more valuable for FF.

Right after I typed that I looked at some recent ADP data and did not realize how close Watson was going to Herbert last few weeks, just getting back into redraft mode after rookie/dynasty drafts and just had not realized the gap had shrunk. But yeah ,not a hot take, in last few days Herbert is going as QB17 and Watson as QB19 with a two round gap. Earlier this off-season it was more like QB10 and QB20 and a stout 6 round gap. So no, not a hot take.

That's actually really nice value getting Herbert at QB 17. Man I'd be happy taking him at qb13 as 1st backup off the board. I do think that his overall numbers are likely to take a hit because of how much Harbaugh wants to run, but if the defense still sucks they're going to have to throw a bunch too.

Just FYI, here is QB 11-16 in last few days.

Daniels, Purdy, Caleb, Goff, Tua and Trevor.

Which one of these do you clearly prefer over Herbert?

Maybe TLaw or Tua

But Tua stinks against good defenses, and/or in cold weather.

Trevor Lawrence also lost weapons but I also think he had a down year, and is primed for bounce back.

But to your point, I have all of them kind of in the same tier. If I’m talking about superflex dynasty, I’m probably down to TLaw or Herbert.

Unless we are not privy to anything concerning tlaw that would impact his play last year...I'd lean heavy herbert..right?

He struggled a little in his 2nd year. I don’t love his coaching either, but I think he was ok but didn’t live up to expectations.

People are fading him way too much, too.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Something about TLaw seems off. Wish I was wise enough to say exactly what but something's not right to my eyes.

I think it’s a matter of expectations being sky high by the FF community combined with the reality of being on the Jags.

Sometimes players take time to adjust to the NFL. Sometimes the NFL adjusts to players.

or maybe some combination of those things. IMO he’s gonna be fine. I didn’t see anything “not right” about him. He’s still a very talented young QB.

 

[King of the Jungle]

[
Right after I typed that I looked at some recent ADP data and did not realize how close Watson was going to Herbert last few weeks, just getting back into redraft mode after rookie/dynasty drafts and just had not realized the gap had shrunk. But yeah ,not a hot take, in last few days Herbert is going as QB17 and Watson as QB19 with a two round gap. Earlier this off-season it was more like QB10 and QB20 and a stout 6 round gap. So no, not a hot take.

But if we’re talking about a fully healthy & effective Watson, with his rushing upside, I don’t think it’s a particularly hot take to suggest he’d be more valuable for FF.

Right after I typed that I looked at some recent ADP data and did not realize how close Watson was going to Herbert last few weeks, just getting back into redraft mode after rookie/dynasty drafts and just had not realized the gap had shrunk. But yeah ,not a hot take, in last few days Herbert is going as QB17 and Watson as QB19 with a two round gap. Earlier this off-season it was more like QB10 and QB20 and a stout 6 round gap. So no, not a hot take.

That's actually really nice value getting Herbert at QB 17. Man I'd be happy taking him at qb13 as 1st backup off the board. I do think that his overall numbers are likely to take a hit because of how much Harbaugh wants to run, but if the defense still sucks they're going to have to throw a bunch too.

Just FYI, here is QB 11-16 in last few days.

Daniels, Purdy, Caleb, Goff, Tua and Trevor.

Which one of these do you clearly prefer over Herbert?

I would take Purdy and Goff pretty easily over the rest. Tua is great vs good to great matchups so I would probably favor him knowing I will see some high mark weeks. Herbert over the remainder for me.

 

[menobrown]

[
Right after I typed that I looked at some recent ADP data and did not realize how close Watson was going to Herbert last few weeks, just getting back into redraft mode after rookie/dynasty drafts and just had not realized the gap had shrunk. But yeah ,not a hot take, in last few days Herbert is going as QB17 and Watson as QB19 with a two round gap. Earlier this off-season it was more like QB10 and QB20 and a stout 6 round gap. So no, not a hot take.

But if we’re talking about a fully healthy & effective Watson, with his rushing upside, I don’t think it’s a particularly hot take to suggest he’d be more valuable for FF.

Right after I typed that I looked at some recent ADP data and did not realize how close Watson was going to Herbert last few weeks, just getting back into redraft mode after rookie/dynasty drafts and just had not realized the gap had shrunk. But yeah ,not a hot take, in last few days Herbert is going as QB17 and Watson as QB19 with a two round gap. Earlier this off-season it was more like QB10 and QB20 and a stout 6 round gap. So no, not a hot take.

That's actually really nice value getting Herbert at QB 17. Man I'd be happy taking him at qb13 as 1st backup off the board. I do think that his overall numbers are likely to take a hit because of how much Harbaugh wants to run, but if the defense still sucks they're going to have to throw a bunch too.

Just FYI, here is QB 11-16 in last few days.

Daniels, Purdy, Caleb, Goff, Tua and Trevor.

Which one of these do you clearly prefer over Herbert?

Maybe TLaw or Tua

But Tua stinks against good defenses, and/or in cold weather.

Trevor Lawrence also lost weapons but I also think he had a down year, and is primed for bounce back.

But to your point, I have all of them kind of in the same tier. If I’m talking about superflex dynasty, I’m probably down to TLaw or Herbert.

Unless we are not privy to anything concerning tlaw that would impact his play last year...I'd lean heavy herbert..right?

That's even with all the crazy changes on the SD..uhhh La staff. Something about TLaw seems off. Wish I was wise enough to say exactly what but something's not right to my eyes.

Heard some discussion a few weeks ago that Trevor was really banged up last year, was just toughing it out.

FWIW I think his weapons improved. A lot of injuries to his WR's last year and hopefully can be healthier and while Brian Thomas may not be as good as Ridley yet the role they wanted Ridley to fill I think he'll be better at then Ridley.

Out of those QB's I listed I'm particularly into Daniels but would for sure take Caleb and TLAW over Herbert. Get's into coin toss range after those 3.

Purdy in some ways is the best example/argument someone can hold up and make as not being overly worried about a decline in Herberts attempt. Purdy was first in YPA, 5th overall in passing yards and third in TD's all while being 20th in attempts, a whopping 10-12 a game less attempts then the league leaders. Absolutely amazing efficiency and honestly I'm not sure what to make of it. Should I be excited about the possiblity of what he could if he throws more or scared of what happens when the efficiency declines?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Should I be excited about the possiblity of what he could if he throws more or scared of what happens when the efficiency declines?

As a Niners fan I can confidently say it’s the latter.

I love Purdy, but i don’t want him throwing more. If that’s happening, the 49ers are playing losing football. Ideally CMC is carrying the team, with Deebo getting some carries as well. Purdy’s at his best when defenses are off balance.

Not taking anything away from Purdy - dude can make reads and use his legs to buy time. He’s always looking downfield and generally makes good decisions.

But I still don’t want him throwing more.
/derail

Also, I agree about TLaw. He toughed it out though several weeks of injury. And I do like what the Jags have done this off-season.

Back on topic, Herbert doesn’t have the kind of weapons Purdy has, but I’m high on McConkey, and QJ is working hard from all reports.

I have it as a toss-up in that range of QB for redraft. Best Ball I’d probably try to get Tua & Baker or something.

It’s early. Maybe LAC will trade for Higgins before the season starts, screwing dynasty owners everywhere.

 

[TheWinz]

Team rushing attempts with Greg Roman as OC, followed by RB/FB rushing attempts for the same team:
2022 Ravens - 526 - ranked 7th, 352 - ranked 20th
2021 Ravens - 517 - ranked 3rd, 323 - ranked 30th
2020 Ravens - 555 - ranked 1st, 363 - ranked 13th
2019 Ravens - 596 - ranked 1st, 394 - ranked 7th
2016 Bills - 492 - ranked 2nd, 382 - ranked 8th
2015 Bills - 509 - ranked 2nd, 379 - ranked 13th
2014 Niners - 470 - ranked 9th, 353 - ranked 19th
2013 Niners - 505 - ranked 3rd, 401 - ranked 7th
2012 Niners - 492 - ranked 7th, 388 - ranked 10th
2011 Niners - 498 - ranked 3rd, 430 - ranked 2nd

This is what your numbers look like when you have a running QB. A handful of posts above I listed all the QB's under Roman's reign as OC, and 1 of them is similar to Justin Herbert - Alex Smith. Alex Smith was his QB for all of 2011. Unless you think Justin Herbert is more like Lamar Jackson, Tyrod Taylor, Colin Kaepernick, or Tyler Huntley, we have to assume Roman is hoping to have a season more like 2011 than any of the other seasons.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Roman is hoping to have a season more like 2011 than any of the other seasons.

I would suggest that Herbert is a far, far better QB than Alex Smith.

Alex Smith was significantly more of a game manager than big-arm’d Herbert. to say Herbert is an upgrade would be a massive understatement.

The 2011 49ers had Frank Gore go for 1200+ RuYd & 8 TD.

Other than short yardage, I don’t see Gus Edwards on the same level as Frank Gore. I expect a lot more passing in the RZ by necessity than the 2011 49ers.

And not for nuthin, that 49ers defense was 2nd league-wide in team defense, which allowed for that style of play.

The 2023 Chargers were 24th in team defense. Sure, they drafted well. Does that propel them 10+ spots in defensive ranking? Not to my eye. IMO Mack is due for regression after a flukey good year.

So 2011 49ers played significantly better defense, had a significantly better RB, and substantially worse QB.

All that said, in 2011 Alex Smith, limited as he was, still managed to top 3000 yards with 17 TDs.

Suffice to say I expect another 1K from Herbert, and ~12-15 more PaTD. Plus Herbert’s always good for some scrambling & a RuTd or 3. Not an LJax by any means, but not a statue.

 

[Tau837]

IMO:

• Herbert will average the fewest passing attempts per game in his career
• He will be throwing to the weakest set of targets in his career
• The Chargers will have more rushing attempts than in any season of Herbert's career
• The Chargers will be content to win games with defense and running game when they can

That is a recipe for a fantasy season outside the top 10 QBs, and that is what I am expecting. I think the Harbaugh/Roman/Minter approach will work well in real life NFL, but not so much for fantasy.

you are forgetting one thing: if Joe Alt is an impact LT right out of the gate, the protection will be better. So Herbert will have more time to throw. That said, if the WR are not quite as good, this likely means more checkdown throws. so who do you think will be the #1 checkdown Target for Herbert? hes the guy who could be an interesting player to own.

I'm not forgetting anything. Alt's presence is part of why I expect Herbert's efficiency to be improved. And Alt won't be an impact LT... the Chargers have Slater at LT. Alt is going to start at RT.

 

[Tau837]

Team rushing attempts with Greg Roman as OC, followed by RB/FB rushing attempts for the same team:
2022 Ravens - 526 - ranked 7th, 352 - ranked 20th
2021 Ravens - 517 - ranked 3rd, 323 - ranked 30th
2020 Ravens - 555 - ranked 1st, 363 - ranked 13th
2019 Ravens - 596 - ranked 1st, 394 - ranked 7th
2016 Bills - 492 - ranked 2nd, 382 - ranked 8th
2015 Bills - 509 - ranked 2nd, 379 - ranked 13th
2014 Niners - 470 - ranked 9th, 353 - ranked 19th
2013 Niners - 505 - ranked 3rd, 401 - ranked 7th
2012 Niners - 492 - ranked 7th, 388 - ranked 10th
2011 Niners - 498 - ranked 3rd, 430 - ranked 2nd

This is what your numbers look like when you have a running QB. A handful of posts above I listed all the QB's under Roman's reign as OC, and 1 of them is similar to Justin Herbert - Alex Smith. Alex Smith was his QB for all of 2011. Unless you think Justin Herbert is more like Lamar Jackson, Tyrod Taylor, Colin Kaepernick, or Tyler Huntley, we have to assume Roman is hoping to have a season more like 2011 than any of the other seasons.

Here is some more data from Roman's 10 years as NFL OC:

Season	Team	Designed Pass Plays	Designed Run Plays	% Pass	% Run	% Plays Trailing
2022	BAL	567	485	54%	46%	31%​
2021	BAL	745	440	63%	37%	44%​
2020	BAL	491	503	49%	51%	26%​
2019	BAL	511	554	48%	52%	19%​
2016	BUF	574	438	57%	43%	48%​
2015	BUF	564	451	56%	44%	45%​
2014	SF	587	421	58%	42%	43%​
2013	SF	503	456	52%	48%	19%​
2012	SF	514	449	53%	47%	27%​
2011	SF	520	469	53%	47%	29%​

Note that QB scrambles are included in designed pass plays and designed QB runs are included in designed run plays.

Given Herbert stays healthy, IMO he will see ~660 dropbacks. ~30 sacks and ~30 scrambles... so ~600 passing attempts. For the record, this is a lot more than Roman's history and Harbaugh/Roman's history.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Given Herbert stays healthy, IMO he will see ~660 dropbacks. ~30 sacks and ~30 scrambles... so ~600 passing attempts. For the record, this is a lot more than Roman's history and Harbaugh/Roman's history.

Cool stats.

Now please list
• QBs under those regimes
• defensive rank under those regimes
• RB personnel under those regimes.

Seems highly relevant if you’re attempting to use past performance to predict future outcomes.

 

[Tau837]

Given Herbert stays healthy, IMO he will see ~660 dropbacks. ~30 sacks and ~30 scrambles... so ~600 passing attempts. For the record, this is a lot more than Roman's history and Harbaugh/Roman's history.

Cool stats.

Now please list
• QBs under those regimes
• defensive rank under those regimes
• RB personnel under those regimes.

Seems highly relevant if you’re attempting to use past performance to predict future outcomes.

You can do the extra research if you are interested, and you can use whatever method you like to predict future outcomes.

I already pointed out that Roman never had a QB like Herbert, which is obvious.

I showed the percentage of plays when trailing which gives an idea on the defense. Unsurprisingly, the 4 seasons with the highest percentage of plays trailing are the highest in percentage of called passing plays. But the percentage of passing plays still remained within a fairly consistent range other than in one season (2021).

The Chargers defense is going to be improved by a lot IMO. They improved in every defensive position group this offseason and also improved the defensive coaching staff. I know you disagree, and that's fine. We can revisit after we see it on the field.

 

[Jail]

Team rushing attempts with Greg Roman as OC, followed by RB/FB rushing attempts for the same team:
2022 Ravens - 526 - ranked 7th, 352 - ranked 20th
2021 Ravens - 517 - ranked 3rd, 323 - ranked 30th
2020 Ravens - 555 - ranked 1st, 363 - ranked 13th
2019 Ravens - 596 - ranked 1st, 394 - ranked 7th
2016 Bills - 492 - ranked 2nd, 382 - ranked 8th
2015 Bills - 509 - ranked 2nd, 379 - ranked 13th
2014 Niners - 470 - ranked 9th, 353 - ranked 19th
2013 Niners - 505 - ranked 3rd, 401 - ranked 7th
2012 Niners - 492 - ranked 7th, 388 - ranked 10th
2011 Niners - 498 - ranked 3rd, 430 - ranked 2nd

This is what your numbers look like when you have a running QB. A handful of posts above I listed all the QB's under Roman's reign as OC, and 1 of them is similar to Justin Herbert - Alex Smith. Alex Smith was his QB for all of 2011. Unless you think Justin Herbert is more like Lamar Jackson, Tyrod Taylor, Colin Kaepernick, or Tyler Huntley, we have to assume Roman is hoping to have a season more like 2011 than any of the other seasons.

Here is some more data from Roman's 10 years as NFL OC:

Season	Team	Designed Pass Plays	Designed Run Plays	% Pass	% Run	% Plays Trailing
2022	BAL	567	485	54%	46%	31%​
2021	BAL	745	440	63%	37%	44%​
2020	BAL	491	503	49%	51%	26%​
2019	BAL	511	554	48%	52%	19%​
2016	BUF	574	438	57%	43%	48%​
2015	BUF	564	451	56%	44%	45%​
2014	SF	587	421	58%	42%	43%​
2013	SF	503	456	52%	48%	19%​
2012	SF	514	449	53%	47%	27%​
2011	SF	520	469	53%	47%	29%​

Note that QB scrambles are included in designed pass plays and designed QB runs are included in designed run plays.

Given Herbert stays healthy, IMO he will see ~660 dropbacks. ~30 sacks and ~30 scrambles... so ~600 passing attempts. For the record, this is a lot more than Roman's history and Harbaugh/Roman's history.

Despite the lean towards run plays this is actually more balanced than I thought lol.

I agree that the defense should definitely be improved. If healthy I agree it should be top half with top 10 potential as you say. Unfortunately as chargers fans we know how badly things can be derailed by injury though. Samuel and Mack are particularly important. The depth is better than it has been, but we've been hit by horrible injury bugs in the past. I definitely hope you are right.

 

[Jail]

[
Right after I typed that I looked at some recent ADP data and did not realize how close Watson was going to Herbert last few weeks, just getting back into redraft mode after rookie/dynasty drafts and just had not realized the gap had shrunk. But yeah ,not a hot take, in last few days Herbert is going as QB17 and Watson as QB19 with a two round gap. Earlier this off-season it was more like QB10 and QB20 and a stout 6 round gap. So no, not a hot take.

But if we’re talking about a fully healthy & effective Watson, with his rushing upside, I don’t think it’s a particularly hot take to suggest he’d be more valuable for FF.

Right after I typed that I looked at some recent ADP data and did not realize how close Watson was going to Herbert last few weeks, just getting back into redraft mode after rookie/dynasty drafts and just had not realized the gap had shrunk. But yeah ,not a hot take, in last few days Herbert is going as QB17 and Watson as QB19 with a two round gap. Earlier this off-season it was more like QB10 and QB20 and a stout 6 round gap. So no, not a hot take.

That's actually really nice value getting Herbert at QB 17. Man I'd be happy taking him at qb13 as 1st backup off the board. I do think that his overall numbers are likely to take a hit because of how much Harbaugh wants to run, but if the defense still sucks they're going to have to throw a bunch too.

Just FYI, here is QB 11-16 in last few days.

Daniels, Purdy, Caleb, Goff, Tua and Trevor.

Which one of these do you clearly prefer over Herbert?

That's a tough tier, so I don't think there are any clearly above for me. If I was waiting on my qb as I often do I'd probably take 2 from that bunch close together. Pair a risky guy like Daniel with a safer guy like Goff or Herbert.

From what I have been reading Herbert is having a great camp despite the wr losses. Even throwing tds to guys that might not even make the team. I think he might have a chip on his shoulder this year.