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QB Mac Jones, SF (1 Viewer)

NBC Sports' Peter King said Mac Jones is the "accurate coach-on-the-field" quarterback 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan "craves." 

King said Shanahan and Niners general manager John Lynch don't take public opinion or sentiment into account when evaluating draft picks, which will be helpful if they pick Jones and trigger a cascade of media criticism for passing on dual-threat QBs Justin Fields and Trey Lance. An NFL coach told King that Jones -- who completed 77.4 percent of his passes and tossed 41 touchdowns last year at Alabama -- "has elite NFL traits. He’s a natural thrower, is technically very sound, very accurate and throws a catchable ball. His base and mechanics are excellent.” It would be an upset if the Niners don't select Jones with the third pick in this week's NFL Draft. 

RELATED: 

Trey Lance

, Justin Fields

, San Francisco 49ers

SOURCE: FMIA 

Apr 26, 2021, 8:43 AM ET
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ESPN's Todd McShay reports that "it appears more than likely" that the San Francisco 49ers will select Alabama QB Mac Jones with the No. 3 pick.

"I'm told that many in the 49ers' personnel department have pushed for North Dakota State QB Trey Lance but that coach Kyle Shanahan wants to draft Alabama's Mac Jones," McShay relays, though he does note that it's at least in play that Shanahan could ultimately cede to scouts on this pick. What is very clear at this point -- unless we are looking at a massive bamboozling -- is that Ohio State QB Justin Fields is no longer being viewed as a real option for Shanahan and crew.

SOURCE: ESPN Plus

Apr 26, 2021, 1:14 PM ET
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https://sportsinfosolutionsblog.com/2021/03/15/the-not-so-curious-case-of-mac-jones/

Decent analytic critique of Mac Jones.  Highlights:

Only 17% of Jones’ throws in 2020 were made off-platform, one of the lowest rates among Power 5 quarterbacks. That kind of stationary play style is tough to reconcile when you consider the way the pro game is trending. Since 2019, about 27% of NFL throws occurred from a compromised throwing base. Pure pocket passers have been viable in the past, but the trend has been shifting towards mobility for some time now.

Concerns about Jones’ pedestrian arm are validated by how long his passes spent in flight. 

In this category, Jones was dead average for a college quarterback, which is not particularly reassuring. Comparatively, the passes of Zach Wilson (-0.08), Trevor Lawrence (-0.07), Justin Fields (-0.03), and Trey Lance (-0.02) all arrived ahead of schedule. But, because it’s difficult to conceptualize how meaningfully different a few hundredths of a second are, this can be put in more practical terms. If Lawrence and Jones both throw a pass that travels 15 yards, we can expect Lawrence’s throw to win that race by about a yard and a half.

There are other proxies by which we can judge Jones’ arm talent. His reluctance to throw to the outermost receiver in trips is one of them. 

In light of both this phenomenon and the relative inferiority in arm talent, defensive coaches at the college level generally like to know if they need to respect the outside receiver in trips. Wilson (27%), Fields (20%), and Lawrence (17%) came in above the average target rate (15%) to varying degrees, but Jones (11%) fell short of the mark. While this specific aspect is not directly translatable to the NFL, the fact that Jones targeted this alignment at a below average rate could be seen as a feather in the cap of his detractors.

More generally, his low average depth of target (ADOT) of 8.3 yards is another stat we can use to judge his arm strength. Of course, this is admittedly simplistic and is confounded by the rate at which he threw RPOs and screens. 27% of his dropbacks were RPOs or screens, and while that’s comfortably above the NCAA average of 20%, it is less conspicuous than the players hovering in the 35-50% range. This is, however, a good opportunity to segue into more systemic concerns.

A whopping 58% of Jones’ dropbacks were RPOs, screens, or play action passes

Although it is nowhere near as precise as tracking data, yards after the catch before contact (YACBC) is a crude instrument that can give us a sense for how open a quarterback’s receivers generally were. Jones’ receivers averaged 5.4 YACBC, which ranked 3rd among FBS teams and 2nd among Power 5 teams. This is likely unsurprising considering his connection with Heisman winner Devonta Smith.

Furthermore, Jones was hurried six percentage points below the average rate, and when he was hurried, pressure arrived a tenth of a second later than the average. Of course, a quarterback owns some of his pressure rate, but things won’t be so easy in the NFL.

Thus far, much of this article has been spent focusing on the criticisms of Jones, but advanced stats also convey the strengths he shows on film. He took great care of the football, as his turnover-worthy throw rate was just 2.0%—good for 7th in the country among the 134 players with at least passes. 

He also processes quickly and gets the ball out in a timely manner. Time to Throw Over Expectation (TTOE) is a metric that considers drop type and play action to set a benchmark for how quickly the ball should come out. Jones’ TTOE of -0.24 ranked 14th among the aforementioned group, but he was far more productive. The thirteen players who ranked ahead of him combined for 244 Total Points. Jones himself accounted for 196.

Lastly, he is very accurate by basically any statistical measure. He ranked first in the oft-misleading completion percentage (77.3%), but also placed first in On-Target Rate (85.1%) and fifth in *On-Target +/- (8.8%).

*On-Target +/- is similar to NextGen’s CPOE, except that passes are judged by whether or not they were thrown accurately when compared to expectation. Read more about this in The SIS Football Rookie Handbook 2021.

So, what do the stats indicate? They tell us that Jones is a statuesque mover who will need to prove he can be comfortable in NFL pockets after being royally protected in college.

They tell us that he doesn’t have the juice to make all the throws and that tight windows may be a problem in the pros after making a lot of wide open throws at the college level.

They also tell us that he avoids mistakes, is accurate, and sees the field and gets the ball out quickly.
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GM offers an interesting assessment of potential 49ers draft target Mac Jones

Much of the San Francisco 49ers-related draft discussion between now and Thursday will involve Mac Jones of Alabama. Monday's press conference with general manager John Lynch and head coach Kyle Shanahan has left many fans feeling that Jones is the likely pick at No. 3. While that may be disheartening for much of the fanbase, the decision ultimately comes down to what Shanahan wants for his offense.

If the coach feels Jones being at the helm gives the 49ers the best chance to win future championships, that will be the pick. No amount of fan pushback will change that.

Maybe Shanahan and Lynch are pulling off the ultimate bluff and setting fans up for a draft-day surprise. Or maybe it is indeed Jones.

Jones could be successful. He may not be the exciting prospect that the fanbase is clamoring for, but that doesn't mean he won't find success in the NFL. Whether it is successful enough to warrant surrendering multiple future first-round picks and a third-rounder will be determined.

Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated spoke with one NFL general manager — probably not named "Lynch" — about Jones. The executive had some good things to say about the former Crimson Tide quarterback.

"We've discounted the pocket passer, and we're discounting him, because there are so many unique athletes that play the position now," the general manager told Breer. "But this guy's good. He's deadly accurate. He doesn't have a powerful arm, but it's plenty good enough. He needs players around him, he needs really good players, and he was driving a Cadillac at Bama. But he can play."

Jones is seen as the most pro-ready of the three quarterback prospects likely to be available at No. 3, including Justin Fields of Ohio State and Trey Lance of North Dakota State. Fields and Lance, however, are seen as having higher ceilings. While Fields and Lance may struggle at first, teams could be happy with each's long-term outlook.

Breer's conversation with the unnamed general manager left him feeling the opposite might be true of Jones.

"So when I add all this up, really, what I come away with is that Jones will probably make a team happy in Years 2 and 3," wrote Breer, "but I'd be a little worried that in Year 5 or 6, he might leave them wanting more from the position."

That's the concern that has The Faithful anxious about the potential selection.

Breer also commented on the level of secrecy the 49ers have been maintaining when it comes to their top selection, especially considering the two picks ahead of them may be the worst-kept secrets in the NFL. It may not all be Shanahan and Lynch's fault, though.

"The league office has routinely warned teams at the top over the years about killing the drama of draft night by letting the cat out of the bag," wrote Breer. "I think that's a little dumb, given that we've known Lawrence was going to be the first pick in the 2021 draft for more than two years now. But doing things like protecting their TV shows is one reason why they print money in that corner of midtown Manhattan, so good for them, I guess."
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I think Ben Allbright is known as being the most or one of the most accurate at mock drafts. He just put Mac Jones at 20 in his only mock.

While what SF does at 3 is key it's going to be so interesting if they pass on Mac seeing how far he falls. I feel like it's pick 3 or outside top 10 for him especailly with Carolina and Denver likely out of the QB market(even if they say otherwise)

 
Patriots selected Alabama QB Mac Jones with the No. 15 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.

Patiently waiting behind Tua Tagovailoa, Jones (6’3/217) set college football’s QBR record in 2020 as a redshirt junior under coach Nick Saban and OC Steve Sarkisian. Jones completed 77% of his passes with a 11.2 yards per attempt average and a flawless 41/4 TD/INT ratio. Even when accounting for Alabama’s personnel, Jones’ season was exceptional. He led college football in passer rating on both non-play action and under pressure attempts. His intermediate accuracy and processing are at the top of the draft class, but Jones’ forgettable physical traits make his NFL projection tricky. Jones only had 14 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown, and his movement skills inside the pocket are Philip Rivers-like minus two inches and 15 pounds. To compete with the dynamic dual-threat quarterbacks of the modern NFL, Jones has to be an outlier mentally or else risks being in the Jimmy Garoppolo tier. If his one season as starter suggested anything, it’s that Jones can execute a passing offense with perfect timing and understanding of defensive coverages. He’s as pro ready as possible for a non-top five consensus prospect. We’ll quickly learn if his raw tools are too much to overcome in today’s NFL. The Patriots re-signed Cam Newton this offseason, but Jones should now be the favorite to lead New England in starts this year.

Apr 29, 2021, 10:15 PM ET
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Shame on the NFL and draft media pumping this guy up. Looking at you, Mike Greenberg, Todd McShay, Chris Simms, Dan Orlovsky.

If he was this all time "processor" that was "pro ready" with "great field vision" then someone would have gone after him. 

I have no idea why they decided to make Jones a thing, but the NFL disagreed. 

 
massraider said:
Shame on the NFL and draft media pumping this guy up. Looking at you, Mike Greenberg, Todd McShay, Chris Simms, Dan Orlovsky.

If he was this all time "processor" that was "pro ready" with "great field vision" then someone would have gone after him. 

I have no idea why they decided to make Jones a thing, but the NFL disagreed. 
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No worries, he will be our project. You don’t need to worry. You should focus on Jets and the inept things. 👍😎

 
massraider said:
Shame on the NFL and draft media pumping this guy up. Looking at you, Mike Greenberg, Todd McShay, Chris Simms, Dan Orlovsky.

If he was this all time "processor" that was "pro ready" with "great field vision" then someone would have gone after him. 

I have no idea why they decided to make Jones a thing, but the NFL disagreed. 
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He's an old school style QB. and he has as good a chance to be a successful franchise QB as anyone other than Trevor. 

Won't be great (or startable) in FF, but the Patriots don't care about that. 

 
massraider said:
Shame on the NFL and draft media pumping this guy up. Looking at you, Mike Greenberg, Todd McShay, Chris Simms, Dan Orlovsky.

If he was this all time "processor" that was "pro ready" with "great field vision" then someone would have gone after him. 

I have no idea why they decided to make Jones a thing, but the NFL disagreed. 
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He still went in the top 15 of the draft?

 
Dr. Octopus said:
He still went in the top 15 of the draft?
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Exactly what I was gonna say...I don't think the hype on him was over-the-top...the perception was Shanny had fallen in love with him and I saw a ton of media pushback on him going that high and over Lance and Fields...other than that I think many had him as their #5 in the class and he actually went where many people had him pegged (to the Pats) prior to the San Fran trade and that Shanny lovefest angle.

 
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Dr. Octopus said:
He still went in the top 15 of the draft?
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Which puts him decidedly below the real rare QB talents in this draft.

People are misunderstanding my statement.  

Jones might turn out fine. He was never some 5th dimensional super brain when it came to playing QB, but a good amount of TV talking heads spent the past few weeks selling that.  

 
massraider said:
Which puts him decidedly below the real rare QB talents in this draft.

People are misunderstanding my statement.  

Jones might turn out fine. He was never some 5th dimensional super brain when it came to playing QB, but a good amount of TV talking heads spent the past few weeks selling that.  
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After the 49ers traded up and it looked like Jones at 3 people were falling over themselves trying to justify it.

 
killface said:
After the 49ers traded up and it looked like Jones at 3 people were falling over themselves trying to justify it.
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I mean, why did it "look like Jones"?

Mainly because Simms said that's what he was hearing, is my guess, and he and Shanahan are great buddies.  And a bunch of people (Schefter, Jeremiah, and definitely more) kind of lost some credibility echoing that sentiment, when it was CLEAR now that they weren't hearing what they were hearing from anyone they should have been repeating that confidently.  

 
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massraider said:
well, shoot, not the first time anyone has seen that from me.  
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I deleted that - but you were quick - as not to be a jerk. However, it did come across as you mocking pundits for being high on Jones, and declared "victory" despite him still being a top 15 NFL pick, which should indicate he's seen as elite at something.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
I deleted that - but you were quick - as not to be a jerk. However, it did come across as you mocking pundits for being high on Jones, and declared "victory" despite him still being a top 15 NFL pick, which should indicate he's seen as elite at something.
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No offense taken whatsoever.  You were probably correct.  

 
Faust said:
NFL personnel anonymously share harsh criticism of Mac Jones
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Its funny how everyone WANTS the "qb of the future" to be Wilson/Mahommes/LamarJackson, but pocket qbs keep not going away.

From the article....

But he’s right up against the ceiling to me, where these other guys, if they can progress — you’re talking about Justin Fields and Zach Wilson — those are going to be dangerous dudes now.

Lamar Jackson is a "dangerous dude".  Josh Allen is a "dangerous dude".  Colin Capernick was a "dangerous dude".  Mac Jones is a skinny white guy.  Tom Brady is a skinny whiteguy.  Peyton Manning....well, you get the idea.  Don't misinterpret my commentary as directed at race (see Josh Allen); its directed at the fascination with the mobile athletic quarterback, i.e. Aaron Rodgers is playing the quarterback position better than anyone else...maybe ever.

Not so much.  Everybody chasing Patrick Mahommes, but there's only one of him.  Now Fields or Lance or ZWilson could become that, but not meeting that archetype shouldn't limit a prospect's ceiling, at least if the scout wants to pretend to be unbiased.

 
SeniorVBDStudent said:
Its funny how everyone WANTS the "qb of the future" to be Wilson/Mahommes/LamarJackson, but pocket qbs keep not going away.

From the article....

But he’s right up against the ceiling to me, where these other guys, if they can progress — you’re talking about Justin Fields and Zach Wilson — those are going to be dangerous dudes now.

Lamar Jackson is a "dangerous dude".  Josh Allen is a "dangerous dude".  Colin Capernick was a "dangerous dude".  Mac Jones is a skinny white guy.  Tom Brady is a skinny whiteguy.  Peyton Manning....well, you get the idea.  Don't misinterpret my commentary as directed at race (see Josh Allen); its directed at the fascination with the mobile athletic quarterback, i.e. Aaron Rodgers is playing the quarterback position better than anyone else...maybe ever.

Not so much.  Everybody chasing Patrick Mahommes, but there's only one of him.  Now Fields or Lance or ZWilson could become that, but not meeting that archetype shouldn't limit a prospect's ceiling, at least if the scout wants to pretend to be unbiased.
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The key to the mobile qb is they get you part of the way but they need to be a great pocket passer in those moments.  
I'm still you draft qb first and runner second.

Plus I just think the NFL will adapt.  They always do

 
Fantasy Scouts 24/7 @FFBallAllDay

·May 29

The reports coming out of New England?

  • Mac is already calling audibles and keying every blitz
  • Cam is still struggling to throw to the right.
  • Players raving about Mac and the ball he throws
  • Mac is starting week 1. He’s already ahead of Cam
 
Lazar’s Minicamp Observations: Mac Jones Has Best Day of Open Practices

Excerpt:

Following Newton in drills was rookie quarterback Mac Jones, whose participation in practice put him noticeably ahead of third-year backup Jarrett Stidham and veteran Brian Hoyer. 

Jones, from this view, had his best practice out of the four sessions open to the media during the offseason program, going 13-of-20 in team drills with several downfield completions. 

Lastly, Monday’s practice was free-agent addition Jonnu Smith’s first with the Patriots. Although Smith’s practice ended early due to an apparent injury, he moves like a wide receiver with great speed and explosiveness for a player of his stature. Smith may not have been at voluntary OTAs, but he looks ready to go, assuming today’s injury is nothing serious. 

Here are eight other observations from the first practice of mandatory minicamp in Foxborough:

1. Rookie QB Mac Jones Showing Signs of Progress

In his post-practice zoom call, veteran Brian Hoyer summed up what Mac Jones is up against perfectly. Hoyer spoke about how, as a quarterback, you have to know what all five receivers are doing on any given play, how the protection is blocking, and then react accordingly to any post-snap movement by the defense to deliver the ball correctly. All those moving parts explain any struggles in these early stages, but Jones is starting to make progress. 

On Monday, Jones showed more confidence and a willingness to push the ball downfield. The Pats’ first-round pick completed downfield passes to Jakobi Meyers (back-shoulder fade), a crosser to Kristian Wilkerson, and a middle-read or seam route to Gunner Olszewski. Jones read the post-safety carrying Isaiah Zuber’s post route and correctly took the intermediate shot to an open Wilkerson on a post/crosser combination. Then, he led the offense into field goal range during a two-minute drill late in practice with a nice in-breaker to Olszewski to get the drive started. Those are the types of downfield throws that Jones wasn’t necessarily making during OTAs, but as he becomes more decisive, the rookie is showing signs of improvement. 
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