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QB Match Ups to Exploit/Avoid Week 5 (1 Viewer)

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
I am going to talk a minute about when you look at the match ups for different QBs. Sometimes you have to look a lot deeper than simply what the defense is giving up. You need to pay attention to who is throwing that rock around as well, especially if they have a track record. Last week David Carr was ranked as high as #11 on the Cheatsheets here at FBG…I thought it was foolish to expect those type of numbers, especially against the Bucs’ defense…but even if the match up looked alright which I don’t think it did, you still have David Carr throwing…and he just isn’t very good. I am not trying to lay into FBG in any way at all, David Dodds and crew steer people the right way a lot more often they ever steer them in the wrong direction. And nobody, I mean NOBODY can be 100% right on player projections week in and week out, absolutely impossible.

So even if Minnesota has a nice advantage against a weak defense…if TJax or Kelly Holcomb are your QBs, you probably want to leave it alone. Those soft defenses are looking at those soft QBs with equal anticipation and probably think they will fare pretty well that week.

Lots to cover so let’s jump into week 5.

Arizona at St Louis:

Kurt Warner/Matt Leinart: Till one of them plays an entire game I would bench both of them. The Cards’ passing attack is good for about 230/1TD a week right now but a lot of that was put up by Kurt Warner on the Ravens…they have been pretty mediocre. The Rams are allowing a 106.3 QB rating against them but trying to zone in on Warner or Leinart…who knows?

Gus Frerotte: The Rams are a team in complete disarray right now. I would not be surprised if Linehan is not brought back next season. They sign McMichael and Drew Bennett, both have done zero, zip, nada. Brian Leonard was drafted as well. Bottom line for St louis is their OL is horrid. Enter in the Cardinals who are suddenly applying pressure and have totaled 12 sacks on the season. Don’t start Gus unless you are really in a pinch and even then you shouldn’t.

Atlanta at Tennessee

Joey Harrington: Coming off good back to back weeks. Atlanta is posting a 98.2 QB rating, 225/1TD per week avg but much better the past 2 weeks. The Titans are giving a 69.1 QB rating, 238/.5TD per week…they are fairly strong. There are so many QB that have bad match ups this week, you could do worse than Harrington, HOWEVER, his track history to me shows that he is always a risky play.

Vince Young: Atlanta is giving up 8.3 yds per attempt and that isn’t good. QBs have a 102 passer rating on them. 215/1 TD per week they are giving up. I like Young to do well this week. He had a nice 60 minute interview this past week…no one tells him what to do!

Carolina at New Orleans

David Carr: I know I said he is terrible but look at this match up! The Saints are allowing 240/2TD a game, 10 yds per attempt, and a 123.4 passer rating against their secondary. New Orleans has ZERO SACKS on the season…If Carr was ever going to light it up this would be the week…and yet he still is terrible. Buyer beware!!!

Drew Brees: Carolina is yielding 229/TD a week. And they have ZERO Interceptions on the season and only 2 sacks!!! Brees may actually have some time to throw. Julius Peppers still plays along the DL for Carolina, right?

This game has all the makings for a shootout, except both offenses have been horrible. Atlanta was terrible till they faced Carolina…the Panthers have not been the same since Houston ripped off 34 points and erased a 14 point deficit in week 2.

Cleveland at New England

Derek Anderson: Going against New England is never a good play.

Tom Brady: 275/3TD a week and Cleveland is allowing 267/3TD a week…I guess Brady should pile up another 300 yds and 3 TD this week.

Detroit at Washington

Jon Kitna: The Skins are only allowing 217/.5TD per week. I know the Lions are a different kind of animal but they were not lighting it up on the DB-less Chicago Bears for the 1st 3 quarters last week. Kitna is a must start almost every week right now.

Jason Campbell: Just not consistent. The Lions have 9 interceptions on the season and I bet they have a couple more on Sunday. Santana Moss is likely out this week, that only makes the Skins pass attack worse.

Jacksonville at Kansas City

David Garrard: He has a 103 rating and no picks on the season, however he only tosses about 200 yds a week and 1 TD…not very exciting and the Chiefs have 11 sacks/5Int on the season as a defense, 167/.5TD a week. Not to toot my horn but I had Rivers down as a bad play last week and many felt otherwise. I don’t see DG having a terrific game on Sunday.

Damon Huard: Just when it looked like Croyle might start seeing some action, Huard actually plays OK and Dwayne Bowe makes him look even better. He will be awful this week along with Bowe…JAX has allowed 1, that be numero uno for TD on the season and a paltry not poultry 150 yds a game…YIKES!!!

Miami at Houston

Trent Green: 230/1 per game, throws a lot of picks too. The Texans are allowing 230/1.5 TD a game, Green should have a decent week on the road. Somewhat of a sneaky play.

Matt Schaub: Fun to watch him progress as the season unfolds. He just plugs WR into his passing attack and away he goes. He has a 101.2 QB rating on the season. Miami has only 5 sacks but they are only giving up a 54% completion rate FYI. 145/1.5TD thru the air on a weekly basis…Schaub will do fine on Sunday.

NY Jets at NY Giants

Chad Pennington: Another nice match up for Penny. He had several over the next 4-5 weeks. Penny is avg 200/1.5 TD a week, the Giants are giving up about 220/2 per week. The Giants have one thing going for them…16 sacks on the season, close to tops in the league. With bye weeks and whatnot, Penny is a good play this week as are his WR.

Eli Manning: The Jets are giving up 253/1.75 TD a week, only 3 sacks on the season, Eli should have all day to throw the ball. A 106.9 QB rating to the opposition as well for the Jets…Manning should exploit these guys on Sunday…he did OK last week but should have fared better. Giants are 2-2 right now, maybe they can make it to 3-2 on Sunday…who would have thought that after weeks 1 and 2?

Seattle at Pittsburgh

Matt Hasselbeck: Has been pretty good so far this season. Back to back weeks where he posted 3 TD and 2 more last week. Avg 250 yds a game thru the air and Branch has come on strong as of late. All that said he will be seeing a pretty strong secondary and front 7 in Pittsburgh this weekend. I don’t see how he can be a top10 candidate this week except maybe because of bye weeks.

Ben Roethlisberger: He is throwing for under 190 yds a week but he is on pace for 32 TD passes this season…which part is more absurd? TD passes for sure, remember he racked up 4 of them in week 1…so he really only has 4 more over a 3 week span…pretty avg. The Seahawks are giving up 224 yds and only 2 TD total on the season. They have 13 sacks and 5 Int so they really get after the QB, Big Ben will not have it easy on Sunday.

Tampa Bay at Indy

Jeff Garcia: Luke Petitgout is lost for the season, he is the starting LT for the Bucs…bad for the passing game. Garcia only has 2 TD passes on the season. And believe me, the Bucs are going to try and run it at the Colts as often as they can on Sunday. The more Chucky can see Manning sitting on the bench, the happier he will be. I don’t see Garcia having a great day on Sunday unless the Bucs are getting blown out and Garcia end up with some garbage points.

Peyton Manning: The Bucs have been pretty good at stopping the pass, and Harrison is likely out this week, one less WR to worry about. The Bucs are only allowing 5.6 yds per attempt which the best in the NFL to my knowledge. 66.1 rating to opposing QBs. Manning might have a very avg day on Sunday.

Baltimore at San Fran

Steve McNair: I just shake my head. The Ravens are throwing for almost 240 yds a game, but we can’t get a QB to really finish. I don’t trust them much and the Niners are not a terrible secondary anyways.

Alex Smith: OUT, some reports are saying it could be season ending. Either way he has been terrible and showed signs of stepping backwards…the Niners have to start looking in a different direction perhaps. This was his 3rd season, time to bring in a veteran that can play and push him along. Trent Dilfer?

Trent Dilfer: BENCH!!! Don’t care what the match up says.

San Diego at Denver

Phillip Rivers: He was a bad play last week and he is a bad play this week too. Denver only allows 114 yds a game and that was after Indy played them last week.

Jay Cutler: The Bolts are giving up 253 yds a game and 2 TD a game as well. 98.3 passer rating to the opposition. This is the week to maybe wheel him out, wish he had Walker healthy to throw it to. And now Henry might not be available for the game…never good when your RB1 and WR1 are OUT. I have a mixed feeling about him this week.

Chicago at Green Bay

Brian Griese: Had 280 yds and 2 TD last week but also threw 3 picks. I think he is capable of having some good days, Sunday Night might not be one of them though. The Pack are playing really well right now, but don’t forget that Rivers looked good against them in week 3. Too many bad choices this week to completely ignore Griese.

Brett Favre: I was wrong about him last week and I am not going to doubt him at home with a chance to go 5-0 this week. Play him play him play him.

Dallas at Buffalo: What a Monday Night Football Game…

Tony Romo: Top5 passing attack vs the worst passing defense in terms of yds per game in the NFL…hmmmmm.

Trent Edwards: Dallas has 9 Interceptions, a 62.9 opposing QB rating…forget it.

Alright, I will check in some but I really want to open this thread up to the Shark Pool and allow everyone to put their 2 cents into it. I am really anxious to see what type of match ups you all have this week and what you think people are overlooking. Good luck!

 
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Vince Young: Atlanta is giving up 8.3 yds per attempt and that isn’t good. QBs have a 102 passer rating on them. 215/1 TD per week they are giving up. I like Young to do well this week. He had a nice 60 minute interview this past week…no one tells him what to do!
:goodposting: Thank you Football God for this matchup when Palmer is on bye!
 
MoP> I appreciate the effort you put into the thing but tell us something we don't know. I don't need to be told xxxxxxx is a bad play against a top pass/run defense. Flame away, nerds.

 
MoP> I appreciate the effort you put into the thing but tell us something we don't know. I don't need to be told xxxxxxx is a bad play against a top pass/run defense. Flame away, nerds.
No flame; perhaps you're not the intended audience? Details like like might be good for newbies....
 
MoP> I appreciate the effort you put into the thing but tell us something we don't know. I don't need to be told xxxxxxx is a bad play against a top pass/run defense. Flame away, nerds.
No flame; perhaps you're not the intended audience? Details like like might be good for newbies....
MoP is better than this is what I'm saying.
Most of the write ups that go with the players contain some pretty good stats, whether it's the yds per game the defnse is allowing, TD, etc...sometimes I like to toss in some stats that people overlook...for example even though the Rams are only allowing 170 yds agame give or take, they also are allowing over 8 yds per attempt if my memory is correct...so IMO they are a good play for opposing QBs even if they are not giving away tons of points in FF yet...it's just a matter of time. That's a small example, and Nipsey, maybe you're right, but how deep do we want to go? I think most of the write ups you see on the net are pretty basic. A lot of sights just post the projections and go no further. I am always up for improving the thread, but the purpose of it might be missing you...I want the board as a whole to chime in, I can't possibly know everything there is to know about all 32 starting QBs...and sometimes we get some really strong posts from people in the know about certain situations. My OP is just a template of sorts...we know the games will be broken down, the QBs listed, some are highlighted in green or red, and then we start compiling peoples opinions...it's the reason I like to post this in the Shark Pool. And I take no offense to what you say Nipsey, I'm glad you applaud the effort.
 
I don't think Chad Pennington has all that great of a matchup this week. The Giants were playing poorly the 1st 2 weeks but they were going up against the Cowboys and Packers two of the best offenses in the NFL. Their best defensive player Osi was also hurt. Ever since he's gotten healthy the Giants have played better on defense. I still Chad Pennington can have a good game but it's not seeming like the lock it was 2-3 weeks ago.

 
MoP> I appreciate the effort you put into the thing but tell us something we don't know. I don't need to be told xxxxxxx is a bad play against a top pass/run defense. Flame away, nerds.
Keep in mind that this week there are also a lot of good-great QB's facing very bad defenses. This is almost like a "no-brainer" type week in terms of who to start and who to sit and it's not MoP's fault. He did point out a few starts like Pennington and Trent Green that could be helpful if you have someone on bye. And anyone that tells you to temper your expectations for Peyton usually isn't just going along with the crowd. Look at the matchups and realize that a lot of this simply is cut and dry this week. What else is he supposed to say? He can either just make stuff up, go against common sense just to be different, or simply type "no reason to post my weekly Matchups to Exploit/Avoid because they're obvious", but what's the point of that?Anyway, MoP, the one I don't necessarily agree with is Trent Dilfer, mostly because you were pretty adamant about benching him. Now, I'm not saying to go out and start him, but if he's the only option available compared to a few others, I think he may do ok. I may be the only one that thinks this, but Dilfer is actually not a bad QB. He's just usually not asked to do much. Unfortunately, Baltimore is still pretty solid against the run and SF will only be able to move the ball through the air, even if it's short little screens to Gore in space. He also has a little familiarity with DJax from his time in Seattle which benefits him. I think he looked absolutely awful last week, but 1 week of snaps with the 1st team should improve his play tremendously. Baltimore's pass defense also isn't as tough as most think and have been vulnerable these first few weeks. This is a game that I can see DJax going off on and Dilfer putting up 200+ yds and 1-2 TDs. Again, not gamebreaking, but I'd start him over a few options if I had to (like Garrard, Rivers, McNair, Carr) who are seemingly better plays.
 
:wub: on David Carr. He is NOT as bad as he played last week. He should have a much better week this week against the Aint's! :thumbup: I would almost go as far as saying you could start him? :unsure:
 
Ministry of Pain said:
Trent Edwards: Dallas has 9 Interceptions, a 62.9 opposing QB rating…forget it.
Buffalo is well aware of their underdog status in this game but Edwards has to have a "nothing to lose" attitude while potentially taking the starting job from Losman. 250 yds 2 tds 1 int isn't out of the question... Stanford grad and primo QB physique (6'4" 224), I've got faith in this kid. Dallas fizzles a bit this week but still gets the W
 
With Ward and McFadden out this weekend, and the possibility of Polamalu and Hampton sitting too, bump up the Seattle throwing game. The Steelers looked like a TOTALLY different team when Troy went out. They will still stuff the run, forcing Hasselbeck to throw. The secondary can be thrown on, if Seattle's line can pick up the blitz. Little worried about this one...(Steelers homer)

 

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