Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I am going to talk a minute about when you look at the match ups for different QBs. Sometimes you have to look a lot deeper than simply what the defense is giving up. You need to pay attention to who is throwing that rock around as well, especially if they have a track record. Last week David Carr was ranked as high as #11 on the Cheatsheets here at FBG…I thought it was foolish to expect those type of numbers, especially against the Bucs’ defense…but even if the match up looked alright which I don’t think it did, you still have David Carr throwing…and he just isn’t very good. I am not trying to lay into FBG in any way at all, David Dodds and crew steer people the right way a lot more often they ever steer them in the wrong direction. And nobody, I mean NOBODY can be 100% right on player projections week in and week out, absolutely impossible.
So even if Minnesota has a nice advantage against a weak defense…if TJax or Kelly Holcomb are your QBs, you probably want to leave it alone. Those soft defenses are looking at those soft QBs with equal anticipation and probably think they will fare pretty well that week.
Lots to cover so let’s jump into week 5.
Arizona at St Louis:
Kurt Warner/Matt Leinart: Till one of them plays an entire game I would bench both of them. The Cards’ passing attack is good for about 230/1TD a week right now but a lot of that was put up by Kurt Warner on the Ravens…they have been pretty mediocre. The Rams are allowing a 106.3 QB rating against them but trying to zone in on Warner or Leinart…who knows?
Gus Frerotte: The Rams are a team in complete disarray right now. I would not be surprised if Linehan is not brought back next season. They sign McMichael and Drew Bennett, both have done zero, zip, nada. Brian Leonard was drafted as well. Bottom line for St louis is their OL is horrid. Enter in the Cardinals who are suddenly applying pressure and have totaled 12 sacks on the season. Don’t start Gus unless you are really in a pinch and even then you shouldn’t.
Atlanta at Tennessee
Joey Harrington: Coming off good back to back weeks. Atlanta is posting a 98.2 QB rating, 225/1TD per week avg but much better the past 2 weeks. The Titans are giving a 69.1 QB rating, 238/.5TD per week…they are fairly strong. There are so many QB that have bad match ups this week, you could do worse than Harrington, HOWEVER, his track history to me shows that he is always a risky play.
Vince Young: Atlanta is giving up 8.3 yds per attempt and that isn’t good. QBs have a 102 passer rating on them. 215/1 TD per week they are giving up. I like Young to do well this week. He had a nice 60 minute interview this past week…no one tells him what to do!
Carolina at New Orleans
David Carr: I know I said he is terrible but look at this match up! The Saints are allowing 240/2TD a game, 10 yds per attempt, and a 123.4 passer rating against their secondary. New Orleans has ZERO SACKS on the season…If Carr was ever going to light it up this would be the week…and yet he still is terrible. Buyer beware!!!
Drew Brees: Carolina is yielding 229/TD a week. And they have ZERO Interceptions on the season and only 2 sacks!!! Brees may actually have some time to throw. Julius Peppers still plays along the DL for Carolina, right?
This game has all the makings for a shootout, except both offenses have been horrible. Atlanta was terrible till they faced Carolina…the Panthers have not been the same since Houston ripped off 34 points and erased a 14 point deficit in week 2.
Cleveland at New England
Derek Anderson: Going against New England is never a good play.
Tom Brady: 275/3TD a week and Cleveland is allowing 267/3TD a week…I guess Brady should pile up another 300 yds and 3 TD this week.
Detroit at Washington
Jon Kitna: The Skins are only allowing 217/.5TD per week. I know the Lions are a different kind of animal but they were not lighting it up on the DB-less Chicago Bears for the 1st 3 quarters last week. Kitna is a must start almost every week right now.
Jason Campbell: Just not consistent. The Lions have 9 interceptions on the season and I bet they have a couple more on Sunday. Santana Moss is likely out this week, that only makes the Skins pass attack worse.
Jacksonville at Kansas City
David Garrard: He has a 103 rating and no picks on the season, however he only tosses about 200 yds a week and 1 TD…not very exciting and the Chiefs have 11 sacks/5Int on the season as a defense, 167/.5TD a week. Not to toot my horn but I had Rivers down as a bad play last week and many felt otherwise. I don’t see DG having a terrific game on Sunday.
Damon Huard: Just when it looked like Croyle might start seeing some action, Huard actually plays OK and Dwayne Bowe makes him look even better. He will be awful this week along with Bowe…JAX has allowed 1, that be numero uno for TD on the season and a paltry not poultry 150 yds a game…YIKES!!!
Miami at Houston
Trent Green: 230/1 per game, throws a lot of picks too. The Texans are allowing 230/1.5 TD a game, Green should have a decent week on the road. Somewhat of a sneaky play.
Matt Schaub: Fun to watch him progress as the season unfolds. He just plugs WR into his passing attack and away he goes. He has a 101.2 QB rating on the season. Miami has only 5 sacks but they are only giving up a 54% completion rate FYI. 145/1.5TD thru the air on a weekly basis…Schaub will do fine on Sunday.
NY Jets at NY Giants
Chad Pennington: Another nice match up for Penny. He had several over the next 4-5 weeks. Penny is avg 200/1.5 TD a week, the Giants are giving up about 220/2 per week. The Giants have one thing going for them…16 sacks on the season, close to tops in the league. With bye weeks and whatnot, Penny is a good play this week as are his WR.
Eli Manning: The Jets are giving up 253/1.75 TD a week, only 3 sacks on the season, Eli should have all day to throw the ball. A 106.9 QB rating to the opposition as well for the Jets…Manning should exploit these guys on Sunday…he did OK last week but should have fared better. Giants are 2-2 right now, maybe they can make it to 3-2 on Sunday…who would have thought that after weeks 1 and 2?
Seattle at Pittsburgh
Matt Hasselbeck: Has been pretty good so far this season. Back to back weeks where he posted 3 TD and 2 more last week. Avg 250 yds a game thru the air and Branch has come on strong as of late. All that said he will be seeing a pretty strong secondary and front 7 in Pittsburgh this weekend. I don’t see how he can be a top10 candidate this week except maybe because of bye weeks.
Ben Roethlisberger: He is throwing for under 190 yds a week but he is on pace for 32 TD passes this season…which part is more absurd? TD passes for sure, remember he racked up 4 of them in week 1…so he really only has 4 more over a 3 week span…pretty avg. The Seahawks are giving up 224 yds and only 2 TD total on the season. They have 13 sacks and 5 Int so they really get after the QB, Big Ben will not have it easy on Sunday.
Tampa Bay at Indy
Jeff Garcia: Luke Petitgout is lost for the season, he is the starting LT for the Bucs…bad for the passing game. Garcia only has 2 TD passes on the season. And believe me, the Bucs are going to try and run it at the Colts as often as they can on Sunday. The more Chucky can see Manning sitting on the bench, the happier he will be. I don’t see Garcia having a great day on Sunday unless the Bucs are getting blown out and Garcia end up with some garbage points.
Peyton Manning: The Bucs have been pretty good at stopping the pass, and Harrison is likely out this week, one less WR to worry about. The Bucs are only allowing 5.6 yds per attempt which the best in the NFL to my knowledge. 66.1 rating to opposing QBs. Manning might have a very avg day on Sunday.
Baltimore at San Fran
Steve McNair: I just shake my head. The Ravens are throwing for almost 240 yds a game, but we can’t get a QB to really finish. I don’t trust them much and the Niners are not a terrible secondary anyways.
Alex Smith: OUT, some reports are saying it could be season ending. Either way he has been terrible and showed signs of stepping backwards…the Niners have to start looking in a different direction perhaps. This was his 3rd season, time to bring in a veteran that can play and push him along. Trent Dilfer?
Trent Dilfer: BENCH!!! Don’t care what the match up says.
San Diego at Denver
Phillip Rivers: He was a bad play last week and he is a bad play this week too. Denver only allows 114 yds a game and that was after Indy played them last week.
Jay Cutler: The Bolts are giving up 253 yds a game and 2 TD a game as well. 98.3 passer rating to the opposition. This is the week to maybe wheel him out, wish he had Walker healthy to throw it to. And now Henry might not be available for the game…never good when your RB1 and WR1 are OUT. I have a mixed feeling about him this week.
Chicago at Green Bay
Brian Griese: Had 280 yds and 2 TD last week but also threw 3 picks. I think he is capable of having some good days, Sunday Night might not be one of them though. The Pack are playing really well right now, but don’t forget that Rivers looked good against them in week 3. Too many bad choices this week to completely ignore Griese.
Brett Favre: I was wrong about him last week and I am not going to doubt him at home with a chance to go 5-0 this week. Play him play him play him.
Dallas at Buffalo: What a Monday Night Football Game…
Tony Romo: Top5 passing attack vs the worst passing defense in terms of yds per game in the NFL…hmmmmm.
Trent Edwards: Dallas has 9 Interceptions, a 62.9 opposing QB rating…forget it.
Alright, I will check in some but I really want to open this thread up to the Shark Pool and allow everyone to put their 2 cents into it. I am really anxious to see what type of match ups you all have this week and what you think people are overlooking. Good luck!
So even if Minnesota has a nice advantage against a weak defense…if TJax or Kelly Holcomb are your QBs, you probably want to leave it alone. Those soft defenses are looking at those soft QBs with equal anticipation and probably think they will fare pretty well that week.
Lots to cover so let’s jump into week 5.
Arizona at St Louis:
Kurt Warner/Matt Leinart: Till one of them plays an entire game I would bench both of them. The Cards’ passing attack is good for about 230/1TD a week right now but a lot of that was put up by Kurt Warner on the Ravens…they have been pretty mediocre. The Rams are allowing a 106.3 QB rating against them but trying to zone in on Warner or Leinart…who knows?
Gus Frerotte: The Rams are a team in complete disarray right now. I would not be surprised if Linehan is not brought back next season. They sign McMichael and Drew Bennett, both have done zero, zip, nada. Brian Leonard was drafted as well. Bottom line for St louis is their OL is horrid. Enter in the Cardinals who are suddenly applying pressure and have totaled 12 sacks on the season. Don’t start Gus unless you are really in a pinch and even then you shouldn’t.
Atlanta at Tennessee
Joey Harrington: Coming off good back to back weeks. Atlanta is posting a 98.2 QB rating, 225/1TD per week avg but much better the past 2 weeks. The Titans are giving a 69.1 QB rating, 238/.5TD per week…they are fairly strong. There are so many QB that have bad match ups this week, you could do worse than Harrington, HOWEVER, his track history to me shows that he is always a risky play.
Vince Young: Atlanta is giving up 8.3 yds per attempt and that isn’t good. QBs have a 102 passer rating on them. 215/1 TD per week they are giving up. I like Young to do well this week. He had a nice 60 minute interview this past week…no one tells him what to do!
Carolina at New Orleans
David Carr: I know I said he is terrible but look at this match up! The Saints are allowing 240/2TD a game, 10 yds per attempt, and a 123.4 passer rating against their secondary. New Orleans has ZERO SACKS on the season…If Carr was ever going to light it up this would be the week…and yet he still is terrible. Buyer beware!!!
Drew Brees: Carolina is yielding 229/TD a week. And they have ZERO Interceptions on the season and only 2 sacks!!! Brees may actually have some time to throw. Julius Peppers still plays along the DL for Carolina, right?
This game has all the makings for a shootout, except both offenses have been horrible. Atlanta was terrible till they faced Carolina…the Panthers have not been the same since Houston ripped off 34 points and erased a 14 point deficit in week 2.
Cleveland at New England
Derek Anderson: Going against New England is never a good play.
Tom Brady: 275/3TD a week and Cleveland is allowing 267/3TD a week…I guess Brady should pile up another 300 yds and 3 TD this week.
Detroit at Washington
Jon Kitna: The Skins are only allowing 217/.5TD per week. I know the Lions are a different kind of animal but they were not lighting it up on the DB-less Chicago Bears for the 1st 3 quarters last week. Kitna is a must start almost every week right now.
Jason Campbell: Just not consistent. The Lions have 9 interceptions on the season and I bet they have a couple more on Sunday. Santana Moss is likely out this week, that only makes the Skins pass attack worse.
Jacksonville at Kansas City
David Garrard: He has a 103 rating and no picks on the season, however he only tosses about 200 yds a week and 1 TD…not very exciting and the Chiefs have 11 sacks/5Int on the season as a defense, 167/.5TD a week. Not to toot my horn but I had Rivers down as a bad play last week and many felt otherwise. I don’t see DG having a terrific game on Sunday.
Damon Huard: Just when it looked like Croyle might start seeing some action, Huard actually plays OK and Dwayne Bowe makes him look even better. He will be awful this week along with Bowe…JAX has allowed 1, that be numero uno for TD on the season and a paltry not poultry 150 yds a game…YIKES!!!
Miami at Houston
Trent Green: 230/1 per game, throws a lot of picks too. The Texans are allowing 230/1.5 TD a game, Green should have a decent week on the road. Somewhat of a sneaky play.
Matt Schaub: Fun to watch him progress as the season unfolds. He just plugs WR into his passing attack and away he goes. He has a 101.2 QB rating on the season. Miami has only 5 sacks but they are only giving up a 54% completion rate FYI. 145/1.5TD thru the air on a weekly basis…Schaub will do fine on Sunday.
NY Jets at NY Giants
Chad Pennington: Another nice match up for Penny. He had several over the next 4-5 weeks. Penny is avg 200/1.5 TD a week, the Giants are giving up about 220/2 per week. The Giants have one thing going for them…16 sacks on the season, close to tops in the league. With bye weeks and whatnot, Penny is a good play this week as are his WR.
Eli Manning: The Jets are giving up 253/1.75 TD a week, only 3 sacks on the season, Eli should have all day to throw the ball. A 106.9 QB rating to the opposition as well for the Jets…Manning should exploit these guys on Sunday…he did OK last week but should have fared better. Giants are 2-2 right now, maybe they can make it to 3-2 on Sunday…who would have thought that after weeks 1 and 2?
Seattle at Pittsburgh
Matt Hasselbeck: Has been pretty good so far this season. Back to back weeks where he posted 3 TD and 2 more last week. Avg 250 yds a game thru the air and Branch has come on strong as of late. All that said he will be seeing a pretty strong secondary and front 7 in Pittsburgh this weekend. I don’t see how he can be a top10 candidate this week except maybe because of bye weeks.
Ben Roethlisberger: He is throwing for under 190 yds a week but he is on pace for 32 TD passes this season…which part is more absurd? TD passes for sure, remember he racked up 4 of them in week 1…so he really only has 4 more over a 3 week span…pretty avg. The Seahawks are giving up 224 yds and only 2 TD total on the season. They have 13 sacks and 5 Int so they really get after the QB, Big Ben will not have it easy on Sunday.
Tampa Bay at Indy
Jeff Garcia: Luke Petitgout is lost for the season, he is the starting LT for the Bucs…bad for the passing game. Garcia only has 2 TD passes on the season. And believe me, the Bucs are going to try and run it at the Colts as often as they can on Sunday. The more Chucky can see Manning sitting on the bench, the happier he will be. I don’t see Garcia having a great day on Sunday unless the Bucs are getting blown out and Garcia end up with some garbage points.
Peyton Manning: The Bucs have been pretty good at stopping the pass, and Harrison is likely out this week, one less WR to worry about. The Bucs are only allowing 5.6 yds per attempt which the best in the NFL to my knowledge. 66.1 rating to opposing QBs. Manning might have a very avg day on Sunday.
Baltimore at San Fran
Steve McNair: I just shake my head. The Ravens are throwing for almost 240 yds a game, but we can’t get a QB to really finish. I don’t trust them much and the Niners are not a terrible secondary anyways.
Alex Smith: OUT, some reports are saying it could be season ending. Either way he has been terrible and showed signs of stepping backwards…the Niners have to start looking in a different direction perhaps. This was his 3rd season, time to bring in a veteran that can play and push him along. Trent Dilfer?
Trent Dilfer: BENCH!!! Don’t care what the match up says.
San Diego at Denver
Phillip Rivers: He was a bad play last week and he is a bad play this week too. Denver only allows 114 yds a game and that was after Indy played them last week.
Jay Cutler: The Bolts are giving up 253 yds a game and 2 TD a game as well. 98.3 passer rating to the opposition. This is the week to maybe wheel him out, wish he had Walker healthy to throw it to. And now Henry might not be available for the game…never good when your RB1 and WR1 are OUT. I have a mixed feeling about him this week.
Chicago at Green Bay
Brian Griese: Had 280 yds and 2 TD last week but also threw 3 picks. I think he is capable of having some good days, Sunday Night might not be one of them though. The Pack are playing really well right now, but don’t forget that Rivers looked good against them in week 3. Too many bad choices this week to completely ignore Griese.
Brett Favre: I was wrong about him last week and I am not going to doubt him at home with a chance to go 5-0 this week. Play him play him play him.
Dallas at Buffalo: What a Monday Night Football Game…
Tony Romo: Top5 passing attack vs the worst passing defense in terms of yds per game in the NFL…hmmmmm.
Trent Edwards: Dallas has 9 Interceptions, a 62.9 opposing QB rating…forget it.
Alright, I will check in some but I really want to open this thread up to the Shark Pool and allow everyone to put their 2 cents into it. I am really anxious to see what type of match ups you all have this week and what you think people are overlooking. Good luck!
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