QB Projections (1 Viewer)

[Hear-the-Footsteps]

I was analyzing the site's most recent projections (think they were from July 9). Started with the QB projections and I just don't think they make much sense.

I wanted to know why the site (or specifically Dodds as I think they are his projections) thinks passing TDs will be so up this year.

This isn't meant to stir a pot. Rather, I just wanted to know if that was purposeful or not. And if so, what is the reasoning behind it?

For instance, according to the projections, 22 QBs in this upcoming season will throw 19 TDs or more.

Has that ever even happened?

2006: 12 QBs with 19 passing TDs or more

2005: 11

2004: 16

2003: 12

2002: 13

So in the last 5 years, that is an average of 12.8 QBs throwing for 19 TDs or more.

And not once in those 5 years have 22 QBs thrown for that much.

The prediction of 22 doing it this year is almost double the average of the last 5 years.

Does that mean you see teams passing more and running less? Or perhaps just passing more inside the 20?

Just curious.

Thanks!

 

[fridayfrenzy]

I think it has to do with injuries more than anything.

There probably won't be 22 QBs with 19 TDs because of injuries, but on a per game basis it may be close.

 

[Jason Wood]

Inevitably there is going to be a disconnect here because of the impossibility of predicting injury.

If you consider 19 TDs/16 games = 1.1875 TDs/Game...now compare that to the number of NFL QBs who had a better TD/G average each season:

2006 -- 18
2005 -- 18
2004 -- 18
2003 -- 21
2002 -- 21
2001 -- 15There's a balancing act between trying to be ultra realistic to league norms and the difficulty of forecasting injury.

If you look at our projections on a per team basis, they stick pretty religiously to league historical norms.

 

[joffer]

it is almost spooky how there is this exact thread every year. i did a double take to make sure this wasn't bumped from a year ago.

they're doing individual projections, not group projections. MT explains it well.