QB Russell Wilson, PIT (2 Viewers)

[Stoneworker]

Tyrod Taylor got $8m last year. Darnold $5-6m. Minshew $5.5M. Jacoby I think qualifies as signed to be a pure backup also at $8.5M.

You used the term "significant" 2025 guarantees. I did not use that term. But we should all agree Wilson has a better market, in a higher cap year, than that lot I just presented you and would ideally be signing to contend for a starting job. All of which suggests he should be paid more then those players.

We should all agree if offsets were not an issue and he was actually keeping what Denver owes him and what his new team would pay him for 2024 that amount would be north of $8.5m.

So in summary when those of us suggests he should negotiates guarantees for 2025 what we are talking about, at least what I'm talking about, is that he's essentially getting paid in 2025 for what he gives you in 2024, it's just pushed out so he can keep that money and what Denver owes him.

Ok. Thanks for clarifying. But you also Liked a JWB post that stated "there will almost certainly have to be a healthy amount of guaranteed money for 2025." So in the absence of anyone being specific I was getting the sense what people were suggesting for "2025 guaranteed money" was closer to starter level (i.e. north of $25mm). All good.

Barring any other disconnects, I agree with what you're saying. "Contend for a starting job on a 2-yr incentive laden deal with a top-of-backup-market 2025 guarantee" seems like a reasonable deal for PIT and maybe 1-2 other teams in similar situations.

 

[IHEARTFF]

$20MM is the initial target imo

 

[massraider]

Over/ Under on any future guarantees for Russell Wilson: $25 million


What you taking?

 

[menobrown]

I was getting the sense what people were suggesting for "2025 guaranteed money" was closer to starter level (i.e. north of $25mm).

Maybe will be that high. I don't know, that's almost another discussion to me which is more trying to predict his value and maybe that's what everyone here is mainly talking about.

For me I'm just trying to refute every media report I hear which is saying if you can convince him to sign with your team he's a zero risk league minimum guy for 2024 and then you can move on with no other obligations. Bothers me they don't cover the options he has to negotiate pay he can protect from the offsets.

 

[Tau837]

Over/ Under on any future guarantees for Russell Wilson: $25 million


What you taking?

Over, and IMO that is obvious

People are not recognizing the market dynamics here. The cap just went up $30M. It will go up again for 2025, probably by a similar amount. These increases reduce risk for a team signing Wilson now.

Meanwhile, by 2025, how many QBs will be making more than $25M per year? Right now, there are 18 QBs set to have cap hits above $25M in 2025 and 16 QBs who would have at least $25M APY in 2025. And obviously, those numbers don't include high quality QBs on rookie contracts or likely reclamation projects (e.g., Mayfield). So the bar is a bit lower than 18 and 16 would imply.

For each team that thinks he can be at worst as good as its incumbent QB with potential to be a top 12 QB... and has no reasonable mechanism to draft a top 3 QB this season... he is a high quality gamble for 2024-2025, even with a healthy amount of guaranteed money in 2025.

Look at it this way. Denver just took a $85M cap hit for Wilson. Atlanta recently took a ~$40M hit for Ryan. This is becoming more common. It is becoming part of the need for finding a quality QB... if you don't have one, it is becoming more viable to gamble on higher risk, higher reward guys. Some teams will think that is what Wilson is. If so, what is the real downside of trying him out and potentially having a $25M dead cap hit in 2025 and/or beyond? The cap will rise enough that it will be much more doable than it has been in recent years.

 

[travdogg]

Over/ Under on any future guarantees for Russell Wilson: $25 million


What you taking?

Over, and IMO that is obvious

I think if he's looking for that, he could be sitting for a while. I'm still thinking he takes a cheap deal. I think he'll value a clear starting job over anything else. I have a hard time seeing him haggling over guaranteed money given how the Denver run went. Especially if he's cheap, he could have his pick of spots.

What about something like close to the minimum this season, with a performance clause (playoffs?) that triggers an option for 2025 for like 25+ million?

I think if the idea is multi-year guaranteed deal, he's falling to like the 4th or 5th QB available. and teams (Steelers especially) start asking if even a guy like Tannehill might be a better option.

Money being equal, right now it looks like:
1. Cousins
2. Mayfield
3. Wilson
4. Fields

If Wilson is wanting something closer to what Cousins wants, or even Mayfield (though he feels very fool's gold to me, as he doesn't get to take Evans/Godwin with him) then I think either teams start getting more into Fields, and/or we get a huge bidding war for Cousins.

 

[Tau837]

Just saw a report that Wilson will sign for 1 year with the Steelers. So those suggesting just 1 year were right (assuming the report is accurate). I guess he is betting on himself to play better and generate a 2025 market.

 

[IHEARTFF]

I’m shocked there is no 25 piece

 

[Bri]

SteelersDepot (a fine source) tweets that they'll bring four QBs to camp and Mason Rudolph is not likely one of the other two now. So he (they) expect the Steelers to still add a couple.

 

[travdogg]

Just saw a report that Wilson will sign for 1 year with the Steelers. So those suggesting just 1 year were right (assuming the report is accurate). I guess he is betting on himself to play better and generate a 2025 market.

1.2 million from the Steelers.

 

[-OZ-]

I'm still thinking he takes a cheap deal. I think he'll value a clear starting job over anything else

good call.
Bargain, and great fit for Russ.

Let’s ride

 

[ghostguy123]

Just saw a report that Wilson will sign for 1 year with the Steelers. So those suggesting just 1 year were right (assuming the report is accurate). I guess he is betting on himself to play better and generate a 2025 market.

That's probably a good move for him, and a move that's easier to do for him since he's already earned a ton of money.
If he hadn't already earned a lot in his career, he wouldn't do that.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Just saw a report that Wilson will sign for 1 year with the Steelers. So those suggesting just 1 year were right (assuming the report is accurate). I guess he is betting on himself to play better and generate a 2025 market.

1.2 million from the Steelers.

Bargain for Steelers.

 

[zamboni]

Just saw a report that Wilson will sign for 1 year with the Steelers. So those suggesting just 1 year were right (assuming the report is accurate). I guess he is betting on himself to play better and generate a 2025 market.

1.2 million from the Steelers.

So he's getting 1.2 million from the Steelers and 37.8 million from the Broncos. Not a bad year - should be able to max out on his 401(k) I think.

 

[massraider]

That's probably a good move for him, and a move that's easier to do for him since he's already earned a ton of money.
If he hadn't already earned a lot in his career, he wouldn't do that.

If anyone was offering to commit to him, he would have taken that deal.

This is the best he could get.

 

[Mitchie]

no team was going to commit a ton of money, and can see why he wouldn't want to settle for something that would undervalue him if he plays well. 1 year deal makes sense for both sides.

 

[Boston]

The battle between Russ and Pickett in 2024 will result in drafting a new QB in 2025.

 

[steelcityman]

If he plays well, maybe Steelers resign him, if he stinks Pickett goes in, plays out year, and the Steelers would have to decide on his 5th year option next year, something around $23M by then, not sure thats even under consideration at this point. They better take a shot at QB in the draft, middle/late rounds. Travis, Milton, Leary, Pratt, someone, anyone.

 

[massraider]

If he plays well, maybe Steelers resign him

Needs a new catch phrase.

STEELERS NATION, LET'S MINE!

 

[steelcityman]

No catchphrases!!!

 

[pollardsvision]

This is awesome. Wilson's probably toast, but it's a no-brainer for the Steelers at the price.

But this is just good entertainment.
10% chance it works and we get to have more fun dunking on the Broncos.
90% chance that Tomlin ends up choking Wilson on the sidelines.

Good fun for the whole family.

 

[Godsbrother]

The battle between Russ and Pickett in 2024 will result in drafting a new QB in 2025.

I am perfectly fine with that. That is what they should have done in 2022. Go with Trubisky/Rudolph/Dobbs, have a crappy season and draft a QB in 2023 with a better pick.

 

[massraider]

PITTSBURGH POSSE, LET'S SMELT!


We'll figure it out, we have plenty of time.

 

[Truebluey]

The battle between Russ and Pickett in 2024 will result in drafting a new QB in 2025.

Did noone else think that Rudolph looked better than Pickett down the stretch?

 

[Ghost Rider]

I see the Steelers play the Broncos in Denver next season. That will be fun.

 

[IHEARTFF]

maybe Russ is betting on himself to earn more than 20 in 25 or something like that

 

[Boston]

The battle between Russ and Pickett in 2024 will result in drafting a new QB in 2025.

I am perfectly fine with that. That is what they should have done in 2022. Go with Trubisky/Rudolph/Dobbs, have a crappy season and draft a QB in 2023 with a better pick.

Agreed...roll the dice on Russ and/or hope Pickett actually develops (and use a mid-to-late-round pick on a QB lottery ticket)...they really don't have any other options going into this year...if one of those works out then great but if not you hit the rest button next offseason.

 

[Grahamburn]

I just wanna winzer for my yinzer!

 

[Brunell4MVP]

Reminds me of this monyeball scene https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=njAGr-kD91I "Nah, I'm not paying you $40M. The Broncos are paying $38M of that for the chance to play against you. That's what Denver thinks of you. "

 

[zamboni]

No catchphrases!!!

Alright, alright, alright.

 

[5-ish Finkle]

Did noone else think that Rudolph looked better than Pickett down the stretch?

Pretty much anyone with eyes could see Rudolph played better than Pickett down the stretch a year ago. That's the faintest of faint praise though. Pickett has been an historically awful QB to date.

WRT to Wilson/Rudolph: Plenty of yinzers would have preferred they pay 4-5 times what they just gave Wilson to have secured the services of Rudolph for the three decent games he played in the past 4 years. A lot of those same yinzers will likely be quietly rooting for Wilson to fail, but will also grudgingly (but willingly) accept any and all wins if he manages to perform well.

I don't love the move, mostly in that it basically shines a laser on the mistake they made by not just taking their lumps a few years ago and potentially be sitting on CJ Stroud today, but considering the cost I certainly don't hate it either.

Signing Russ likely won't amount to much more than keeping Tomlin's meaningless "winning streak" alive, but there's also probably a better chance he can actually win a playoff game for them than either Pickett or Rudolph would provide them, should they get there.

 

[ghostguy123]

That's probably a good move for him, and a move that's easier to do for him since he's already earned a ton of money.
If he hadn't already earned a lot in his career, he wouldn't do that.

If anyone was offering to commit to him, he would have taken that deal.

This is the best he could get.

Baker got 3 years 100 million. Russ can't get 2 years 20 million? Ok

 

[Stoneworker]

Bump RB's Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris in PPR. They will get 300 catches between them next year

 

[massraider]

Russ can't get 2 years 20 million? Ok

Clearly not

 

[ChiefD]

PITTSBURGH POSSE, LET'S SMELT!


We'll figure it out, we have plenty of time.

Those Who Smelt It, Dealt It!

 

[ghostguy123]

Russ can't get 2 years 20 million? Ok

Clearly not

No, that's not clear at all, for reasons already stated

 

[massraider]

No, that's not clear at all, for reasons already stated

You imagine he doesn't care about money. That's your reason. FInd a fact, and send it over.

He got the best deal he could: One year minimum.

 

[Snoopy]

PITTSBURGH POSSE, LET'S SMELT!


We'll figure it out, we have plenty of time.

I don't get it.

 

[massraider]

PITTSBURGH POSSE, LET'S SMELT!


We'll figure it out, we have plenty of time.

I don't get it.

Russell had a catch phrase in Denver: Broncos Country, Let's Ride! He used to sign off his interviews with his catch phrase.

It was really cool, and everyone loved it. He needs a new one in PIT, and I think smelting occasionally happens near steel, but that's really just a guess.

PITTSBURGH POSSE, LET'S SMELT!


We'll figure it out, we have plenty of time.

Those Who Smelt It, Dealt It!

STEELER NATION, I'LL STOP THE WORLD AND WELD WITH YOU

 

[menobrown]

He tried to get guarantees kicked into 2025. No one would give it. Now. If he was about money he could have waited. This just indicates to me that while we'll hear about the competition with PIckett for the rest of the off-season it's just noise.What a steal for the Steelers.

 

[McBokonon]

I HOPE YINZ LIKE WINZ!

 

[Brunell4MVP]

Be careful what you wish for PIT fans. - signed Broncos fans and Russ' former teammates/coaches

 

[CGRdrJoe]

Be careful what you wish for PIT fans. - signed Broncos fans and Russ' former teammates/coaches

yeah, how dare they get excited for an upgrade at one of the most important positions on the field

 

[Brunell4MVP]

Be careful what you wish for PIT fans. - signed Broncos fans and Russ' former teammates/coaches

yeah, how dare they get excited for an upgrade at one of the most important positions on the field

Not if he destroys the locker room for a third team

 

[Stoneworker]

Amazing how two teams' trash is (thought to be) another teams' treasure

 

[CGRdrJoe]

Be careful what you wish for PIT fans. - signed Broncos fans and Russ' former teammates/coaches

yeah, how dare they get excited for an upgrade at one of the most important positions on the field

Not if he destroys the locker room for a third team

the steelers have had that already with Trubisky and Pickett

 

[Buckna]

I wouldn’t think going to an Arthur Smith led offense would be the best choice for rehabbing your image as a QB but maybe beggars can’t be choosers. I look forward to some 9 passes for 6 completions type games!

Edit: totally forgot he gets to play the defenses in Cleveland and Baltimore twice each now. I guess it beats playing for the NYG and their swiss cheese o’line. He really must not of had a ton of good options.

 

[Buckna]

PITTSBURGH POSSE, LET'S SMELT!


We'll figure it out, we have plenty of time.

I don't get it.

Russell had a catch phrase in Denver: Broncos Country, Let's Ride! He used to sign off his interviews with his catch phrase.

It was really cool, and everyone loved it. He needs a new one in PIT, and I think smelting occasionally happens near steel, but that's really just a guess.

PITTSBURGH POSSE, LET'S SMELT!


We'll figure it out, we have plenty of time.

Those Who Smelt It, Dealt It!

STEELER NATION, I'LL STOP THE WORLD AND WELD WITH YOU

STEELER NATION, HE WHO SMELT IT, WELD IT!!!

 

[Judge Smails]

I see a lot of sacks in his future

 

[Snoopy]

PITTSBURGH POSSE, LET'S SMELT!


We'll figure it out, we have plenty of time.

I don't get it.

Russell had a catch phrase in Denver: Broncos Country, Let's Ride! He used to sign off his interviews with his catch phrase.

It was really cool, and everyone loved it. He needs a new one in PIT, and I think smelting occasionally happens near steel, but that's really just a guess.

PITTSBURGH POSSE, LET'S SMELT!


We'll figure it out, we have plenty of time.

Those Who Smelt It, Dealt It!

STEELER NATION, I'LL STOP THE WORLD AND WELD WITH YOU

I also thought you were talking about the fish.