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QB Trey Lance, DAL (3 Viewers)

Leroy Hoard said:
But I could see one of those teens moving up and spending their allowance on him.
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Or I could see him in the back part of rd 1. 

Ask yourself this.  When is the likely scenario he can become a competent nfl starter?   I'm thinking year 3.  Sit year 1.  Scattered starts 2 to get his sea legs then year 3.   

 
SF makes so much sense.  Start Jimmy G in 2021, and if he performs well, they deal him for a 1st rounder+ in 2022 (purportedly the 2022 QB class is weak).

And in the meantime, Shanahan has a year to mold his star pupil, a la Reid and Mahomes.

I like Mac Jones and for every one thinking this is a deep QB draft, he drives home that point, but at no point on the spacetime continuum do I think he is worth trading up for to #3.

 
Mister CIA said:
SF makes so much sense.  Start Jimmy G in 2021, and if he performs well, they deal him for a 1st rounder+ in 2022 (purportedly the 2022 QB class is weak).

And in the meantime, Shanahan has a year to mold his star pupil, a la Reid and Mahomes.

I like Mac Jones and for every one thinking this is a deep QB draft, he drives home that point, but at no point on the spacetime continuum do I think he is worth trading up for to #3.
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IMO its going to take a lot longer than that to get him up to speed as I pointed out above as examples.  He hasnt even thrown 500 passes in college or HS combined.  He hasnt played for all intents and purposes in a year and you think he is going to get nfl ready just sitting for year?  It doesnt make sense.  Plus San fran is ready to win now.  Not 2-3 years from now.   The more and more I read and listen to guys discuss Lance the more I am certain he is a massive project.  Its going to take one hell of a program set up around him to succeed.  Sure we just saw it with Allen but more times than not it goes south rather than what he did. 

 
ESPN's Todd McShay reports "many in the 49ers' personnel department" want to take North Dakota State QB Trey Lance with the third pick in this week's NFL Draft. 

Head coach Kyle Shanahan, meanwhile, is reportedly dead set on using the third pick on Mac Jones, who NBC Sports' Peter King described as a "coach on the field" QB Shanahan wants. Apparently the Niners' personnel people aren't on board with taking Jones, preferring the explosive dual-threat Lance, who threw 28 touchdowns and rushed for 14 scores in 2019 -- his final college season.
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https://www.nbcsports.com/edge/football/nfl/player/63310/trey-lance

 
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Dr. Octopus said:
Why not year 2?
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He wouldn’t have played for 2 full years.  No way he can get up to speed at the nfl level coming from the fcs in that short timeframe.   It’s too much of a project.   His lack of overall starts on the high school and college level coupled with his crazy low passing attempts is just too much to overcome.  He is years behind in reps.  It’s not going to work no matter the physical freak he is.  

 
In his final mock draft, ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. projected the New England Patriots to trade up to the No. 7 pick with the Lions in order to select North Dakota State QB Trey Lance.

Only so much can be read into mock drafts, but at this point, they hold at least a little more interest, simply because Kiper et al. are building their mocks around Draft Week knowledge garnered around the league. There has been plenty of chatter about the Patriots potentially trading up for Ohio State's Justin Fields should Fields slide, but Kiper takes a slightly different angle on matters.The analyst refers to Lance as "one of the most fascinating prospects" he has ever evaluated. Fields, for the record, slides to the Broncos at No. 9 (despite their trade for Teddy Bridgewater, Denver should not be ruled out as a quarterback landing spot).

SOURCE: ESPN Insider

Apr 29, 2021, 12:10 PM ET
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ESPN's Jordan Raanan hears that the Atlanta Falcons are seriously considering selecting North Dakota State QB Trey Lance with the No. 4 pick.

Raanan's source has apparently been in touch with the Falcons throughout the evaluating process, but this little note goes against pre-draft trends in a major way. Momentum has been steadily building toward a selection of Florida TE Kyle Pitts at the No. 4 position, with multiple evaluators of the belief that Atlanta will not be pulling the trigger on a signal-caller come Thursday evening. If Lance goes to Atlanta it would completely open the draft up, as it would cause a domino effect of dropping Pitts down and likewise for every subsequent prospect, opening up options that would not have been available prior.

SOURCE: Jordan Raanan on Twitter

Apr 29, 2021, 12:39 PM ET
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49ers selected North Dakota State QB Trey Lance with the No. 3 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.

San Francisco traded up to No. 3 in a deal with the Dolphins earlier this month, but many believed the Niners were leaning toward Alabama's Mac Jones with the third pick. Instead, they go with the theoretical upside of Lance as their replacement for Jimmy Garoppolo. Recruited as a linebacker by Power 5 schools, Lance (6'4/224) opted to stay at quarterback and enroll at FCS powerhouse North Dakota State. As a redshirt freshman in his lone season as the starter, Lance won the National Championship (16-0) on the back of a 28/0 TD/INT ratio and 9.7 yards per pass attempt average. His arm strength is real, but his accuracy is a work in progress, particularly on deep passes where he only completed 38% of his 20+ yard attempts. The Bison offense -- lots of play action (38% of passes) and seven-man protections -- is extremely quarterback friendly and run-oriented. Lance only averaged 18.0 pass attempts per game and many were one-read looks to open receivers, so he needs time to develop as a passer. In the meantime, Lance can rely on his power rushing and scrambling, both of which are easily the best in the class. He had 1,110 yards and 14 touchdowns on the ground in 2019, reasons to earmark his profile in fantasy circles. Overall, Lance is on the Josh Allen to Jalen Hurts spectrum as a prospect. It’s worth noting that he had control over the protections at the line of scrimmage in college. That’s advanced beyond his age.

- Rotoworld
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He is the first person to be drafted by an NFL team that was born this century. Makes me feel so old!

 
ESPN's Adam Schefter reports the 49ers believed No. 3 overall pick Trey Lance was "the smartest quarterback in this draft" and "the most ready to play right away."

Lance being the most intelligent quarterback in the draft is something Schefter passed along on NFL Live during the week leading up to the first round. Being "ready to play right away," though suggests the exact opposite of what Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch have said about Jimmy Garoppolo throughout the process. The 49ers are still reportedly asking for at least one first-round pick in exchange for the 29-year-old, but it still seems likely he's off the roster by the time camp begins. Lance remains an intriguing high-end QB2 assuming he's given the nod for all 17 games.

RELATED: 

Jimmy Graham

SOURCE: Brett Kollmann on Twitter

May 3, 2021, 2:14 PM ET
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FMIA: On Drama In Green Bay, The 49er Fakeout And The ’21 NFL Draft

Excerpt:

Niners factoid: The last piece in the big March 26 trade with Miami that netted the third overall pick was a bonus that fell from the sky. At least that’s how the Niners thought about the 2022 third-round pick that they threw in to complete the trade with Miami. That third-round pick is one of two Compensatory Picks the Niners got for developing and then losing Robert Saleh to be the head coach of the Jets. “We never counted on having a three for Robert Saleh,” Kyle Shanahan told me. “So I looked at that as a complete bonus that made it worth getting the trade done a month in advance.”

Around draft time, reporters dig, and friends of people in the league nose around. So Adam Schefter has been close to the Shanahans since he covered the Broncos for the Denver Post, and Chris Simms has been close to Kyle Shanahan since they were teammates at the University of Texas. So they sniffed around when the Niners traded from 13 to three, and both Schefter and Simms thought there was a good chance San Francisco would make Mac Jones its first-round pick. If the two people who know Shanahan the best in the media think it’s more likely than not Jones, well, of course, the avalanche will follow. And it did. “We weren’t going to work to correct that,” said Shanahan. “But to see how much this matters to so many people was just unbelievable. It really taught me a lot about people. And I guess it’s awesome for our league, all the attention.”

The Niners gain nothing by saying who they’d pick—and Shanahan said he and Lynch didn’t know for sure Lance was the guy till April 19, the day of Lance’s second Pro Day practice in North Dakota.

I asked him: How did you know it should be Lance?

“It’s so hard for me to give a quick answer,” Shanahan said from California.

“His natural ability to play the quarterback position, just in terms of how he plays in the pocket, how he can go through the progressions, how, when no one’s open, that he gives it a chance, that he recognizes it. And how quick he reacts to turning it into an off-schedule play. He plays on tape like he’s a very poised, smart person who’s been playing the position for a while.

“Then you look into the other attributes, and you’re like ‘Oh, I haven’t even gotten to the running skill set.’ I haven’t gotten to the upside of how much better he can get, the more he plays. That’s what made me like him so much right away.

“But it’s also, once you do that, you see all this, now let’s talk about what’s wrong. Why isn’t this a slam dunk? You hear his school [level of play], the lack of throws, not playing the 2020 season. Those are real things. That’s why I’m glad that we had a long time to go through it. Because you love the tape, but just like everyone in the league, there are some stuff you can’t just say it’s a slam dunk. That’s the stuff that worries you about it. But that’s what was so cool about the kid, that going through this process after we moved up to where I talked to him so many times, to have him go through the number of tests and stuff that we have them all go through . . . I can’t tell you how special of a person he is. It has nothing to do with football.

“He’s extremely intelligent. He knows how to handle situations. He knows how to carry himself. The guy that I see on tape that I tried to describe that I see such a natural quarterback, such a smart player. Well, if I never saw the tape, and I got to hang out with him first, I would’ve felt that same way with him as a person and been like, ‘Man, I hope the tape matches this person!’ You know? That’s kind of what was cool about it. The first time you watch the tape, ‘Man, hell yeah!’ But no decision’s set in stone in January. That’s how I felt in January when I saw him. But I was going to do the process right. Watch everybody. Every guy. I can always spend two hours and get myself to like anyone. Then, I go to the time getting myself to not like him. And I see what ends up sticking. That’s what was cool about him through the process at the end. No matter what I tried to do to say, It’s too risky!, all that stuff kind of went away the more I got to know the person. I went back to how I originally felt about the tape.”

The process: After the Niners’ season ended, Shanahan and family went on vacation. Most days, he’d do family things for part of the day and watch college quarterbacks (plus Matthew Stafford and Deshaun Watson, once rumors put them on the street) for part of the day. Jones was the first passer he studied. The Niners were at 12 then, and maybe Jones would be the only quarterback available there. After watching big chunks of his 17 Alabama starts, Shanahan was revved up about him. I’d definitely take this guy at 12, he thought.

Lance was the last college guy he studied. Playing at a lower level, and playing only one game, made Lance sound like the riskiest prospect to Shanahan.

How he did the study was interesting too. The 49ers’ video department puts a blank bar on each video clip, so Shanahan—instead of taking notes in a notebook—can type in his notes on every play. After he finished his pass-through of tape study on Lance, he emailed Lynch between 20 and 40 plays of Lance so he could see what Shanahan was seeing, and he told the GM words to this effect: I’m obsessed with the type of stuff we can do with this guy. Shanahan said Lynch couldn’t sleep that night, he was so excited about Lance’s prospects for the offense.

“I’ve always been intrigued when you can have a guy make the defense play 11-on-11,” Shanahan said. “It just slows down the game a little bit. You cannot have a guy that only makes them worry about the run. It’s just a matter of time before that becomes pretty easy to contain and that’s not built to last. You’ve got to have a guy that can do both.” Shanahan didn’t say this to me, but he had to be thinking about the mobility of Lance and the relative lack of it with Jones, and he had to be thinking of the exquisite accuracy of Jones (74 percent) versus the decent accuracy of Lance (65 percent) in college. Everything had to be considered.

Once they were sufficiently smitten with Lance, the Niners also knew it was doubtful he’d be available at 12. Lynch spent much of March fact-finding on trades. Jets at 2, no. Dolphins at 3, maybe. Falcons and Bengals at 4 and 5, no and no. Lynch and Shanahan weren’t totally set on Lance yet, but they were leaning that way. Could they have made a better deal than the gargantuan price of first-round picks in ’22 and ’23, plus a three next year, to move just nine spots? Could they have waited and done better? Possibly. But there was so much buzz about teams moving up for quarterbacks. They had to be comfortable enough to move knowing they’d now have a month to pick between Lance, Jones and Justin Fields. “You get up to three,” Shanahan said, “and it’s not about upside anymore. It’s about, You can’t miss.

So many younger coaches and GMs don’t treat first-round picks like priceless vases anymore. They’re capital. When you want something bad enough, go buy it—even if the price is more than you dreamed of paying.

“Everyone talks about the draft capital and I totally understand all that,” Shanahan said. “I know, growing up, how I felt about first-round picks. Those are such a big deal, and it’s true. They are. But I kept making the point just watching teams in our division these last few years, watching Seattle trade two ones for a strong safety, watching the Rams do it where they haven’t had one five years in a row, do it for a quarterback and a cornerback. I think all those were good moves. I think they have helped their teams.” Without the two future ones and the three, Shanahan knew Miami would stick at 3, and the prospects of moving up were not good. If the oft-injured Jimmy Garoppolo got hurt again and the Niners lost out on the quarterbacks because they wouldn’t pay the price, Shanahan would have been sick.

In his office in Santa Clara, Shanahan would call in coaches and debate the quarterbacks with them, trying to never give a clue who he liked. But slowly, he came to value the versatility and mobility of Lance. Two days after the Lance Pro Day, Shanahan and Lynch told each other they were done. Lance was the guy.

They didn’t tell the coaches, he said, till the Jaguars picked Trevor Lawrence.

“You wouldn’t tell me nothing!” Lance said when Shanahan called to tell him he was the pick with the Niners on the clock.

A lot of people connected to this story will have good stories to tell their grandchildren one day. Now all Lance has to do is be great.
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I see Bloom has him No. 1 in his dynasty rankings among all rookies. Not sure I’m there but I’m hopeful he will be a bargain on draft day. 

 
Picking at 1.11 in a 1 qb dynasty, holding Lamar Jackson and Cousins.  Going to be tough to pass on Lance's upside for Rondale or Elijah Moore or Terrace Marshall or Trey Sermon.  I'm trying to talk myself into it, that LJ will be valuable for years to come.  The heart wants what the heart wants though.

 
facook said:
Picking at 1.11 in a 1 qb dynasty, holding Lamar Jackson and Cousins.  Going to be tough to pass on Lance's upside for Rondale or Elijah Moore or Terrace Marshall or Trey Sermon.  I'm trying to talk myself into it, that LJ will be valuable for years to come.  The heart wants what the heart wants though.
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ryno1980 said:
I see Bloom has him No. 1 in his dynasty rankings among all rookies. Not sure I’m there but I’m hopeful he will be a bargain on draft day. 
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I have the 2 in a SF. I didn't want to select him but might. :oldunsure: it seems really unlikely for him to go over Trevor.

 
After flipping back and forth, he's my 1.02 in SF leagues behind Lawrence. It's either him or Fields at that point

 
-OZ- said:
I have the 2 in a SF. I didn't want to select him but might. :oldunsure: it seems really unlikely for him to go over Trevor.
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zeeshan2 said:
After flipping back and forth, he's my 1.02 in SF leagues behind Lawrence. It's either him or Fields at that point
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Twenty-Four Eighty-Four said:
Lawrence is by far the safer of the two prospects and I would not risk taking Lance over Lawrence due to the safety aspect.
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I have picks 1.03 and 1.07 in a SF/IDP.  One guy has picks 1.04-1.06.  He needs a QB.  I believe that 1.01 and 1.02 will be QB's leaving two of Fields/Wilson/Lance.  I need a QB too but really don't have a strong opinion about those three guys.  I probably have it Fields>Lance>Wilson but that is heavily based on landing spot and reputation (NYJ.....Ugh).  Do I risk the other guy only taking one QB and take Chase/Harris with 1.03 and take which ever QB falls to 1.07 or take my pick of the QB's and end up with maybe Pitts/Williams at 1.07?

(Sorry as this is probably not entirely on topic but does feed into if you value Lance enough to make sure you get him over the other two guys).

 
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Gally said:
I have picks 1.03 and 1.07 in a SF/IDP.  One guy has picks 1.04-1.06.  He needs a QB.  I believe that 1.01 and 1.02 will be QB's leaving two of Fields/Wilson/Lance.  I need a QB too but really don't have a strong opinion about those three guys.  I probably have it Fields>Lance>Wilson but that is heavily based on landing spot and reputation (NYJ.....Ugh).  Do I risk the other guy only taking one QB and take Chase/Harris with 1.03 and take which ever QB falls to 1.07 or take my pick of the QB's and end up with maybe Pitts/Williams at 1.07?

(Sorry as this is probably not entirely on topic but does feed into if you value Lance enough to make sure you get him over the other two guys).
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No it's cool. 

I would take my QB at 1.03; whoever falls to you from Lance or Fields. I assume Lawrence will go 1.01 but if he doesn't, I would try to trade up to 1.02. As for 1.07, I could see Mac Jones or Wilson falling there but I am iffy on them even though Chris Simms loves Zach Wilson. Williams and Pitts could be there at 1.07 and I can see Devonta too. If the first 3 backs go after Lance, Fields, and Lawrence, you could just take Pitts or Chase there. I think the 1.07 is a good spot

 
zeeshan2 said:
No it's cool. 

I would take my QB at 1.03; whoever falls to you from Lance or Fields. I assume Lawrence will go 1.01 but if he doesn't, I would try to trade up to 1.02. As for 1.07, I could see Mac Jones or Wilson falling there but I am iffy on them even though Chris Simms loves Zach Wilson. Williams and Pitts could be there at 1.07 and I can see Devonta too. If the first 3 backs go after Lance, Fields, and Lawrence, you could just take Pitts or Chase there. I think the 1.07 is a good spot
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Thanks for the insight.  I agree the 1.07 is a great spot but I am not in love with any of the three (Fields/Lance/Wilson) over the other two so I don't have any strong need to get one of them.  I am fine with any of them (at this point....that may change as the draft is in August).  Since I don't have  strong opinion I am wondering about gaming it a bit since the same guy has all three picks between my two.  

 
USA Today's Mark Schofield said 49ers QB Trey Lance could start "sooner than you think." 

Schofield cites Lance's familiarity with the complex west coast offense play calling verbiage, his accuracy on short and anticipatory throws, and his athleticism as reasons the rookie could take the Niners' starting job in 2021. 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan has famously complicated play calling language that, according to Lance's former QB coach Randy Hedberg, won't trip up the rookie. "We verbalize the play in the huddle, and I think that’s one thing that would be a plus for Trey at the next level. He’s done that in our system, but it does resemble more West Coast than anything," Hedberg said. Lance's ability to scramble, buy time in the pocket, and take off for even short gains could make him a superior option to pocket passer Jimmy Garoppolo, Schofield said. Look for Lance's average draft position to skyrocket if Shanahan so much as hints that the Week 1 job could be his. 

RELATED: 

Jimmy Garoppolo

SOURCE: USA Today 

May 7, 2021, 10:21 AM ET
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The Athletic's Matt Barrows believes the 49ers could "sprinkle in Trey Lance the way the Saints have used Taysom Hill" in recent seasons.

It's obviously only a possibility if Jimmy Garoppolo were to remain on the team's roster through camp, which still seems doubtful following the shots both Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch fired pre-draft. Barrows also comps Lance's potential usage to the way the 49ers used Colin Kaepernick early in 2012 when the latter averaged 4.3 pass attempts and 3.5 carries in specific packages until he inevitably replaced Alex Smith to finish the year. Properly projecting the number of games Lance eventually starts continues to be one of the most important questions to answer if drafting early in large-field Best-Ball tournaments.

RELATED: 

Jimmy Garoppolo

SOURCE: Matt Barrows on Twitter

May 7, 2021, 1:15 PM ET
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So what do we think the odds are of him taking over - either for injury or performance - this season? 50/50? I picked him up 1.12 as my QB of the future (A-Rod) and have been in full draft crush mode for months. This kid just exudes the It Factor.

I know they say it's Jimmy G and he has the money, but how far back do we have to go now in the NFL for a top 3 QB who did not paying meaningful games in his rookie season?

 
tombonneau said:
So what do we think the odds are of him taking over - either for injury or performance - this season? 50/50? I picked him up 1.12 as my QB of the future (A-Rod) and have been in full draft crush mode for months. This kid just exudes the It Factor.

I know they say it's Jimmy G and he has the money, but how far back do we have to go now in the NFL for a top 3 QB who did not paying meaningful games in his rookie season?
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That would probably be Carson Palmer, or Phillip Rivers a year later if you extend to pick 4.

Obviously Mahomes sat as the 10th pick, but that was a similar thing with a contender trading way up to get a QB while they still had a decent vet. I tend to think that's what we're going to see barring injury. 

 
tombonneau said:
So what do we think the odds are of him taking over - either for injury or performance - this season? 50/50? I picked him up 1.12 as my QB of the future (A-Rod) and have been in full draft crush mode for months. This kid just exudes the It Factor.

I know they say it's Jimmy G and he has the money, but how far back do we have to go now in the NFL for a top 3 QB who did not paying meaningful games in his rookie season?
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Probably not as far back as the last time we saw a rookie QB who didn't play in his last year in college start in his rookie year :shrug:

I think he starts by mid year but the norms are out the window here.

 
Probably more fantasy upside than either Wilson or Fields.  I like his landing spot in SF more than Fields in Chicago, plus his running ability will show well in fantasy.

 
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