Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I know Chase does his QBBC article and it is once again awful good this year and one of the most fun articles that gets posted.
Just for fun I posted a thread where we got the 10-12 worst passing defenses in the NFL and I always think it’s fun to try and match up the QBs with the most games against these inferior pass defenses on an Excel spreadsheet.
Here is what I do. I 1st look and see if there are two teams from the same division that are on the god awful list and here is why. The other teams in that division will automatically get 4 games that they will see good match ups against. Remember you can’t include the teams that are the poor passing defenses themselves because they can’t play themselves so you lose 2 of those 4 games already.
So I look for teams that are from the same division and then I start looking at what two other divisions they will be playing outside of their own. Everyone plays 3 teams twice in their division, one more conference division, one inter conference division and then that leaves two games against random teams usually fro within their own conference. I start listing them next to the teams as I go down that have 2 from the same division. This will make sense when I list them.
We ranked them in no particular order as…
Detroit…no dance partner
Cinci…no dance partner
Hou…NFC South, AFC West, plus Miami and Cleveland
TN…NFC South, AFC West, plus the Jets and Cinci
Buff…NFC East, AFC North, plus Denver and JAX(this one here becomes important)
ATL…NFC West, AFC South, plus MN and NYG
Miami…NFC East, AFC North, plus Oak and Hou
AZ…NFC South, AFC North, plus Det and Wash
NYG…no dance partner
SD…no dance partner, not sure how bad they will be
St Louis…NFC South, AFC North, plus GB and Dallas
NO…NFC West, AFC South, plus Chi and Philly
Indy…Forming a possible trifecta for the AFC South
I went hunting in the NFC West 1st because of AZ and STL popping up as potential poor pass defenses(this is going to become PPD for short from now on). Now you overlook Leinart and Bulger because they play on the teams with the PPD…not saying you shouldn’t draft either one of those QBs but we are looking for late round gold if we can which allows us to load up on RBs and WRs throughout the draft.
Matt Hasselbeck: I’ll save you the trouble and tell you that he had 6 good match ups but Hass has a much higher ADP than most of the other QBs I am going to go over…I would say if he somehow falls into the 9th round then grab him but he has an ADP of 7.06 according to AntSports (Serious Mocks)…
Alex Smith: (1) AZ, (2) @StL, (7) @NYG, (8) NO, (9) @Atl, (11) StL, (12) @AZ, (15) CINCI…he starts off nicely in weeks 1 and 2, sort of not usable again until weeks 7 thru 12 where you can possibly match him up 5 of those 6 weeks. His ADP right now is 10.10 in 12 team redrafts, and sometimes going as late as the mid 12th round.
I like Smith and his new weapons but we might be able to do better with a few other QBs.
I can save you time with the Jets and Patriots in the AFC East which houses Buffalo and Miami. The Jets actually don’t have a super easy pass schedule despite getting 4 games built in with Buffalo and Miami. And the Pats, you would have to spend an early pick on Brady which is fine but I think they are going to be playing form ahead and likely not chucking it around all the time.
Next division we will examine is the AFC South and the one team that sticks out like a sore thumb is Jacksonville. Let’s have a look at Leftwich…I know you all don’t like him but you have to look at this.
Byron Leftwich: ADP (13.10)…going as late as the 16th round currently.
Week 1: TN
Week 2: ATL
Week 6: HOU
Week 7: INDY
Week 9: @NO
Week10: @TN
Week11: SD
Week12: BUFF…gets an extra goody game at home
Week13: @Indy
He has 9 weeks of good to great match ups. I am not saying make him your QB1…but he just might surprise some people with a few big weeks and could come out of the gate very strong the first couple of weeks. Also let’s not overlook WR in this thread as we go along too. Word is EW is winning the battle in camp down there…Northcutt running #2, those guys can be had for a swan song right now. Don’t say you weren’t given the info, OK?
And finally we jump to the NFC South where Atlanta and New Orleans are.
Jake Delhomme: ADP (11.01)
Week 1: @St L
Week 2: HOU
Week 3: @Atl
Week 5: @NO
Week 6: @AZ
Week 8: INDY
Week 9: @TN
Week10: ATL
Week12: NO
Again we have 9 really nice match ups on the schedule for Delhomme. I am not going to hype him too much as Carolina has not looked all that great in preseason but the schedule would indicate that the panthers have a fighting chance to get their passing game out of the cellar for sure.
8 of these games are in the 1st 10 games of the season…you guys know how to process that info, right? It means that we could see a QB really outperform his draft slot, a guy you probably have as your QB2 at best, which you can then package with maybe your WR3/4 and get something you can actually start every week in return. The key to winning a championship to me is not just the draft but what you do with these advantages you obtain throughout the season. We know Jake is average to above average but if he sets the world on fire through week 8, why not trade him away before his schedule gets harder and get something to help us for “our attack run” in the playoffs?
And finally…
Jeff Garcia: ADP (13.04)…can be had even later.
Week 2: NO
Week 3: StL
Week 5: @Indy
Week 6: TEN
Week 7: @Det
Week 9: AZ
Week11: @Atl
Week13: @NO
Week14: @Hou
Week 15: ATL
OK, Garcia gets a whopping 10 games against PPD. He and Delhomme combine for awesome match ups in almost every week but weeks 4 and 16…otherwise you have not just 1 but many weeks 2 terrific match ups to feast on. Line them up and see what we get.
Week 1: @StL
Week 2: HOU and NO
Week 3: @Atl and StL
Week 4:
Week 5: @NO, and @Indy
Week 6: @AZ and TEN
Week 7: @Det
Week 8: INDY
Week 9: @TN, and AZ
Week10: ATL
Week11: @Atl
Week12: NO
Week13: @NO
Week14: @Hou
Week15: ATL
Week16:
I could see taking both these guys as a QB2/3 combo after you nail down someone in the 8th or 9th round…I could even see gambling and getting these guys late…Carr will not unseat Delhomme and Garcia should not be pushed either.
Don’t forget that the WR on these teams should fare well too. No reason Smith won’t be top5 and Galloway top20 with these pass schedules. But look to see who nails down the WR2 on these teams as they should be good value.
What say you?
Just for fun I posted a thread where we got the 10-12 worst passing defenses in the NFL and I always think it’s fun to try and match up the QBs with the most games against these inferior pass defenses on an Excel spreadsheet.
Here is what I do. I 1st look and see if there are two teams from the same division that are on the god awful list and here is why. The other teams in that division will automatically get 4 games that they will see good match ups against. Remember you can’t include the teams that are the poor passing defenses themselves because they can’t play themselves so you lose 2 of those 4 games already.
So I look for teams that are from the same division and then I start looking at what two other divisions they will be playing outside of their own. Everyone plays 3 teams twice in their division, one more conference division, one inter conference division and then that leaves two games against random teams usually fro within their own conference. I start listing them next to the teams as I go down that have 2 from the same division. This will make sense when I list them.
We ranked them in no particular order as…
Detroit…no dance partner
Cinci…no dance partner
Hou…NFC South, AFC West, plus Miami and Cleveland
TN…NFC South, AFC West, plus the Jets and Cinci
Buff…NFC East, AFC North, plus Denver and JAX(this one here becomes important)
ATL…NFC West, AFC South, plus MN and NYG
Miami…NFC East, AFC North, plus Oak and Hou
AZ…NFC South, AFC North, plus Det and Wash
NYG…no dance partner
SD…no dance partner, not sure how bad they will be
St Louis…NFC South, AFC North, plus GB and Dallas
NO…NFC West, AFC South, plus Chi and Philly
Indy…Forming a possible trifecta for the AFC South
I went hunting in the NFC West 1st because of AZ and STL popping up as potential poor pass defenses(this is going to become PPD for short from now on). Now you overlook Leinart and Bulger because they play on the teams with the PPD…not saying you shouldn’t draft either one of those QBs but we are looking for late round gold if we can which allows us to load up on RBs and WRs throughout the draft.
Matt Hasselbeck: I’ll save you the trouble and tell you that he had 6 good match ups but Hass has a much higher ADP than most of the other QBs I am going to go over…I would say if he somehow falls into the 9th round then grab him but he has an ADP of 7.06 according to AntSports (Serious Mocks)…
Alex Smith: (1) AZ, (2) @StL, (7) @NYG, (8) NO, (9) @Atl, (11) StL, (12) @AZ, (15) CINCI…he starts off nicely in weeks 1 and 2, sort of not usable again until weeks 7 thru 12 where you can possibly match him up 5 of those 6 weeks. His ADP right now is 10.10 in 12 team redrafts, and sometimes going as late as the mid 12th round.
I like Smith and his new weapons but we might be able to do better with a few other QBs.
I can save you time with the Jets and Patriots in the AFC East which houses Buffalo and Miami. The Jets actually don’t have a super easy pass schedule despite getting 4 games built in with Buffalo and Miami. And the Pats, you would have to spend an early pick on Brady which is fine but I think they are going to be playing form ahead and likely not chucking it around all the time.
Next division we will examine is the AFC South and the one team that sticks out like a sore thumb is Jacksonville. Let’s have a look at Leftwich…I know you all don’t like him but you have to look at this.
Byron Leftwich: ADP (13.10)…going as late as the 16th round currently.
Week 1: TN
Week 2: ATL
Week 6: HOU
Week 7: INDY
Week 9: @NO
Week10: @TN
Week11: SD
Week12: BUFF…gets an extra goody game at home
Week13: @Indy
He has 9 weeks of good to great match ups. I am not saying make him your QB1…but he just might surprise some people with a few big weeks and could come out of the gate very strong the first couple of weeks. Also let’s not overlook WR in this thread as we go along too. Word is EW is winning the battle in camp down there…Northcutt running #2, those guys can be had for a swan song right now. Don’t say you weren’t given the info, OK?
And finally we jump to the NFC South where Atlanta and New Orleans are.
Jake Delhomme: ADP (11.01)
Week 1: @St L
Week 2: HOU
Week 3: @Atl
Week 5: @NO
Week 6: @AZ
Week 8: INDY
Week 9: @TN
Week10: ATL
Week12: NO
Again we have 9 really nice match ups on the schedule for Delhomme. I am not going to hype him too much as Carolina has not looked all that great in preseason but the schedule would indicate that the panthers have a fighting chance to get their passing game out of the cellar for sure.
8 of these games are in the 1st 10 games of the season…you guys know how to process that info, right? It means that we could see a QB really outperform his draft slot, a guy you probably have as your QB2 at best, which you can then package with maybe your WR3/4 and get something you can actually start every week in return. The key to winning a championship to me is not just the draft but what you do with these advantages you obtain throughout the season. We know Jake is average to above average but if he sets the world on fire through week 8, why not trade him away before his schedule gets harder and get something to help us for “our attack run” in the playoffs?
And finally…
Jeff Garcia: ADP (13.04)…can be had even later.
Week 2: NO
Week 3: StL
Week 5: @Indy
Week 6: TEN
Week 7: @Det
Week 9: AZ
Week11: @Atl
Week13: @NO
Week14: @Hou
Week 15: ATL
OK, Garcia gets a whopping 10 games against PPD. He and Delhomme combine for awesome match ups in almost every week but weeks 4 and 16…otherwise you have not just 1 but many weeks 2 terrific match ups to feast on. Line them up and see what we get.
Week 1: @StL
Week 2: HOU and NO
Week 3: @Atl and StL
Week 4:
Week 5: @NO, and @Indy
Week 6: @AZ and TEN
Week 7: @Det
Week 8: INDY
Week 9: @TN, and AZ
Week10: ATL
Week11: @Atl
Week12: NO
Week13: @NO
Week14: @Hou
Week15: ATL
Week16:
I could see taking both these guys as a QB2/3 combo after you nail down someone in the 8th or 9th round…I could even see gambling and getting these guys late…Carr will not unseat Delhomme and Garcia should not be pushed either.
Don’t forget that the WR on these teams should fare well too. No reason Smith won’t be top5 and Galloway top20 with these pass schedules. But look to see who nails down the WR2 on these teams as they should be good value.
What say you?
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Nice analysis.
