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Rams acquire #1 pick, Massive haul for Titans

FUBAR said:
do we really know no team is making that offer?  It's not like these guys tweet every offer they make or get or discussion they have. 
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No, we don't. When was the last time a top 20 qb got traded for draft picks? It's not because teams loaded with picks aren't interested..

 
stbugs said:
Didn't you say that the Browns didn't blow it? Based on those rumors about delaying the announcement for the LA Rams due to an LA legend and the LaConfora article yesterday about the Browns wanting Goff, I think my suspicion that they gambled they could get Wentz and lost is true.
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Please let this go

 
Bri said:
I do think the Titans got the better of this deal.

However I lllllllllllllove Mariota. If the Rams get their Mariota, then I don't think it'll matter what they gave up. Maybe initially but overtime, no one will care.

I think if their QB busts, then they look extra dopey for giving up so much.
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These QB are not as good as MM.

Titans should be quite a bit more fun to watch in years ahead.  :)

 
massraider said:
Still have to get players.  They don't now.  Incredibly boring roster, a young QB they like, and not much else.  DGB might be good at WR, might not.  Still have to go and get players.  
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Mariota and DGB are an offense you can build around. What a haul for Tenn. Could make them very interesting.  

 
massraider said:
It's a ridiculous trade, and if teams were trading a veteran player, no one would offer anything close to that for a Matt Ryan, or a Stafford, and certainly not for a Bortles.

But a completely unknown player, with zero experience, is getting traded for 6 premium picks.  No player is worth that, let alone a QB from freaking North Dakota.
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Of course not. No one in their right mind would pay that for Ryan, Bortles or Stafford. However, they might pay that much for Andrew Luck or the player they believe to be the next Andrew Luck (since the Colts would never trade him). It is a shot at getting a franchise QB for the next decade, and that is worth paying a premium for (more than I would probably pay, but I understand where they are coming from).

 
massraider said:
Two 1's, two 2's, two 3's for Bortles or........Cousins?  Stafford?!?

Oh my god.  
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Draft picks are a crapshoot especially when get out of the first round.  I think a lot of teams would consider that trade depending on how they value the qbs you listed.

 
squistion said:
Of course not. No one in their right mind would pay that for Ryan, Bortles or Stafford. However, they might pay that much for Andrew Luck or the player they believe to be the next Andrew Luck (since the Colts would never trade him). It is a shot at getting a franchise QB for the next decade, and that is worth paying a premium for (more than I would probably pay, but I understand where they are coming from).
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squistion said:
Of course not. No one in their right mind would pay that for Ryan, Bortles or Stafford. However, they might pay that much for Andrew Luck or the player they believe to be the next Andrew Luck (since the Colts would never trade him). It is a shot at getting a franchise QB for the next decade, and that is worth paying a premium for (more than I would probably pay, but I understand where they are coming from).
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How do the QBs in this draft stack up to other drafts?  I don't see a can't miss prospect, so yes, it was a tremendous overpay to move up to #1 if you're going to take a QB.  The bust factor seems too high to do this for a QB in this year's draft.

 
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They paid too much but it makes sense of some levels.  Move to LA, draft Goff who's from Cali.  Desperate for face of the franchise in their new city. Get fans excited. Sell a lot more tickets. Don't think all of that didn't factor into it.

 
I haven't been able to look as much into this today as I would have liked to...................but anyone thinking the Rams do not know which player they want is a total idiot.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Terrible trade for the Rams... Titans GM deserves a raise.
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I wont come right out and say it was terrible for the Rams.  I certainly would not like it if I was a Rams fan.  Basically, the QB they take has to be a near great one to break even.

The Titans made the absolute perfect trade for their situations.  Yes, Titan's GM deserves a big raise. 

I also think they trade up again and may very well get the #1 player in their board and come out with an extra 1st and 2nd out of it.

 
Bri said:
I do think the Titans got the better of this deal.

However I lllllllllllllove Mariota. If the Rams get their Mariota, then I don't think it'll matter what they gave up. Maybe initially but overtime, no one will care.

I think if their QB busts, then they look extra dopey for giving up so much.
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I agree with this.  I was initially not happy with the price the NYG paid to get Eli, but 2 Super Bowl wins...

 
RC94 said:
I agree with this.  I was initially not happy with the price the NYG paid to get Eli, but 2 Super Bowl wins...
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None of these QB prospects are at the level of an Eli. Heck, I think many people would say they aren't even a Rivers.

 
Buckna said:
None of these QB prospects are at the level of an Eli. Heck, I think many people would say they aren't even a Rivers.
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They might be.
Can you tell me honestly about Eli?

I remember a lot of negativity and a horrendous rookie year. When people claim he was something of Peyton II, I'm...no no no. There's so much revisionist historians in today's world 

 
Buckna said:
None of these QB prospects are at the level of an Eli. Heck, I think many people would say they aren't even a Rivers.
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It would not be at all surprising to see both Wentz and Goff finish their careers with better than 7.1 YPA and over 59.3% completions, which are Eli's totals through age 34. That's pretty dang mediocre. Of QBs with 3000+ attempts since 2004, Eli is 19th (of 19) in completion percentage, and 13th in yards per attempt.

 
Bri said:
They might be.
Can you tell me honestly about Eli?

I remember a lot of negativity and a horrendous rookie year. When people claim he was something of Peyton II, I'm...no no no. There's so much revisionist historians in today's world 
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I remember "experts" saying Eli was more physically talented than Peyton.  He lacks his brother's football intelligence and work ethic.  Not that Eli is stupid or lazy but just not the same level. 

 
maf005 said:
This trade is nowhere near as lopsided as it's being made out to be by this forum/media. 
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Looking at the trade value chart, just the firsts and seconds that changed hands:
[]
#1 = 3,000
[]
1.15 X 2 (if Rams finish about same in 2016) + #43 & #45 = 3,020
[]
Rams give up two thirds (2016 & 2017), but get a 2016 fourth and sixth, which roughly equals the third they give up next year. So they pay a premium of a 2016 third to entice TEN to move down the third furthest from #1 since the merger (NE moved up from #16 and HOU moved up from #17 all the way to #1 for Irving Fryar and Earl Campbell, respectively). Should be the biggest move up for a QB since the merger.
 
If rumors are true PHI was in the mix, than LA had to better their offer, obviously, because lot less appealing to trade down to 1.15 than 1.8.
 
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Hankmoody said:
It's possible they fully believe in them both and just have to make the decision.  Luck/Griffin, Manning/Leaf (wow), Winston/Mariotta, all were virtual coin flips going into draft day, and it's easy to see a team liking either one.  Heck just from a pure risk management perspective.  If they only like one guy, why do this now?  Why not wait until draft day and make sure their "one and only" doesn't fall down some stairs or pull a Josh Gordon in the next two weeks?

I agree they have probably made up their minds, I just don't see this as that big of a surprise if it turned out to be true.
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As to why not later, TEN reportedly wanted to do it a few weeks before the draft, so they would have extra time to mull over their new options from the mid-first. And later rounds, I'd imagine. Plus they may not be done wheeling and dealing.

There were rumblings (hard to substantiate in these cases) that the Rams may have been concerned PHI was also in play for the #1. Which sounds at least plausible. The #13 to #8 trade may have been just the first in an intended two part move to end up at the top of the draft, with the rationale it would be easier to entice TEN to trade back to the latter than former pick.

 
I think the Rams wanted to make the move now, because of the 49ers and Eagles.  

I think the Titans wanted to make the move now, because when a team offers you two drafts worth of premium picks, you accept before they come to their senses.  

You know, if the Rams somehow work a deal with CLE, and still gets their guy, that will go a long way towards mitigating the damage they have done to their short-term roster with this move.  

Conversely, if the Browns are able to swing a nice trade with SF or PHI, and still get a QB they like later, that would be nice as well.  

 
http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2016/04/14/titans-rams-draft-trade-number-1-pick

Peter King's take on the trade.  I was interested in reading King's take on this trade, because he is tight with Snead/Fisher.  They allowed him access to their draft room last year, and he is clearly going to get out the message they want.  Interesting comments bolded by me.  

Conversations between Rams GM Les Snead and his rookie Tennessee counterpart, Jon Robinson, began March 28 at the Ole Miss pro day, with Robinson there to eyeball the Titans’ presumptive top pick in the 2016 NFL draft, tackle Laremy Tunsil. Snead wanted to know what it would take for the Rams to move up from their No. 15 spot in the first round to get the first pick overall.

Robinson knew a couple of things in assessing his chance to move. He knew the Titans needed a slew of help all over the roster. And he knew Snead, who has been the boldest trader in and around draft day in his four drafts running the Rams, would do something bold. The Rams totaled an astonishing eight trades in the top 50 picks of the previous four drafts.

Talks heated up during the day Wednesday, when the Rams sent the final proposal, and when Robinson and Snead agreed on the terms of one of the biggest draft trades in NFL history: The Rams get the first pick overall in the April 28 draft, plus Tennessee’s fourth- and sixth-round picks. The Titans get the Rams’ top four picks this year (a first, two seconds and a third), plus Los Angeles’s first- and third-round picks in 2017.

The other day, one prominent GM in the league told me why he thought the Rams would move way up to pick a quarterback. He said they can’t compete in the NFC West (with Russell Wilson and Carson Palmer in place in Seattle and Arizona, respectively) without getting a quarterback. This was the text-message from this GM Thursday morning, upon hearing of the deal:

“Just like we said … Bravo, Rams.”

The upshot of the trade that radically remade the 2016 NFL draft.

• The Titans own the next two drafts. Tennessee now has six picks in the top 76 of the 2016 draft—numbers 15, 33, 43, 45, 64 and 76. With many evaluators saying the meat of this draft is between 20 and 70, Tennessee, depending on its board, could draft six players this year whom Robinson would consider starting-caliber. And the Titans set themselves up nicely for 2017—they’re the only team right now with two picks in the first round next year.

• The Rams will take a quarterback No. 1. I can tell you a final decision has not been made as to which quarterback that will be. But they obviously felt that either Carson Wentz of North Dakota State or Jared Goff of Cal was capable of being the franchise quarterback the Rams have lacked during the Jeff Fisher era. The Rams did the precise opposite of what they did in in 2012, when they traded down four spots, allowing Washington to pick Robert Griffin III number two overall and capturing four high picks in return. The Rams moved up 14 spots his year to get a quarterback.

• To a much lesser degree, the two players who’d been in play at No. 1 for Tennessee, Tunsil and cornerback Jalen Ramsey of Florida State, now muck up the very top of the draft. One or both of them could be in play beyond the top two picks—and before this trade, no one could have said that.

t’s clear why Tennessee made this trade. Very clear, in fact. Robinson saw a team that needs help on the offensive line, in the secondary and on the pass-rush, and that needs a versatile playmaking linebacker … and he thought that subtracting one single player, a franchise tackle or corner, was worth the value of getting six choices in the first three rounds of the next two drafts. Who can blame him? Smart move for Robinson and the Titans.


 


But the Rams, the youngest team in football over the last four seasons and a team with many defensive pieces in place, knew they’d never catch quarterback-rich Seattle or Arizona in the NFC West with Case Keenum, Nick Foles or Sean Mannion atop their quarterback depth chart. In some ways, the price was the price. It’s ridiculously exorbitant, to be sure, but without a quarterback the Rams would face another season of fighting for third in a stacked division and putting off the inevitable search for a passer.This is a league with a greater emphasis on quarterback than ever. Teams threw the ball more often last year, and for more yardage, than in any previous season in the NFL’s 96-year history. That’s why I don’t think it was especially hard for Snead and Fisher and COO Kevin Demoff to pull the trigger on this deal. Brock Osweiler, with seven career starts and a lot of question marks, just got $18 million a year in Houston. That shows how desperate teams are to get fixed at quarterback. This trade shows that the Rams believe they’re a quarterback away—and when you watch their swarming defense some Sundays, it’s hard to argue with that logic.

Why now? Why not wait to try to get a better deal and give away less value to Tennessee? I think it’s because the Rams wanted two full weeks to investigate Goff and Wentz—to find out everything they can about each guy, on and off the field. The Rams are on the clock, and they two weeks of investigative time to spare.
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I heard that none of the other Cal players showed up to Goff's birthday party. The Titans knew this, and that's why they traded down.

 
I think draft picks are severely overrated because few teams draft correctly.  The teams that draft correctly are a pretty short list which means the good players consistently fall to them in drafts.  There is a reason why the Broncos, Patriots, and Steelers have been to half of the super bowls and the rest of the AFC have been to the other half.

 
Riversco said:
I think draft picks are severely overrated because few teams draft correctly.  The teams that draft correctly are a pretty short list which means the good players consistently fall to them in drafts.  There is a reason why the Broncos, Patriots, and Steelers have been to half of the super bowls and the rest of the AFC have been to the other half.
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Yeah, when he states that they could come away with 6 starting caliber players that is a bit of a reach. If they are perfect, yes, but since the hit rate in the 1st round is 50%, even getting 3 starting caliber players from those 6 is a win. Just because the "meat" of the draft is 20-70, doesn't mean they are can't miss, I think they say it is the meat of the draft because once you get to late twenties it really starts getting into closely ranked players where you aren't surprised if a guy goes late 1st or drops to mid/late 2nd. It doesn't mean that this is the best 20-70 player pool ever and you should be 6 of 6.

 
Bob Magaw said:
As to why not later, TEN reportedly wanted to do it a few weeks before the draft, so they would have extra time to mull over their new options from the mid-first. And later rounds, I'd imagine. Plus they may not be done wheeling and dealing.

There were rumblings (hard to substantiate in these cases) that the Rams may have been concerned PHI was also in play for the #1. Which sounds at least plausible. The #13 to #8 trade may have been just the first in an intended two part move to end up at the top of the draft, with the rationale it would be easier to entice TEN to trade back to the latter than former pick.
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we can pretty much guarantee the Titans are not done dealing.  up, down, sideways.  Jon's having fun.

 
In other news, the Rams trade their #1 pick to the Browns for 2 1st round picks, 2 2nd round picks, 2 3rd round picks, and a punt returner.

FUBAR said:
we can pretty much guarantee the Titans are not done dealing.  up, down, sideways.  Jon's having fun.
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Agreed.  I'd bet they try and move up to grab either Stanley or Conklin if they're worried he goes before pick 15.

Also, they could jump back up into the 1st to grab a player that's falling if they think it's a big value.

What if Tunsil and Stanley go in the top 8, and the Titans trade up to spot 9 for... Ezekiel Elliott.  I would be shocked, but I wouldn't immediately think it was a poor choice.  Star QB and a great RB to block, run, and catch dump off passes out of the backfield.  The might miss out on the top 4 OTs, but they'd definitely be getting top 8 talent.

 
As a Vikes fan I can tell you what ammo in the hands of a good GM can do to a roster in a few short years. Hope Robinson drafts well. He's got the bullets now. 

 
steelers1080 said:
In other news, the Rams trade their #1 pick to the Browns for 2 1st round picks, 2 2nd round picks, 2 3rd round picks, and a punt returner.

Agreed.  I'd bet they try and move up to grab either Stanley or Conklin if they're worried he goes before pick 15.

Also, they could jump back up into the 1st to grab a player that's falling if they think it's a big value.

What if Tunsil and Stanley go in the top 8, and the Titans trade up to spot 9 for... Ezekiel Elliott.  I would be shocked, but I wouldn't immediately think it was a poor choice.  Star QB and a great RB to block, run, and catch dump off passes out of the backfield.  The might miss out on the top 4 OTs, but they'd definitely be getting top 8 talent.
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If they hadn't just acquired DeMarco Murray I might agree. but no.  In the shark pool mock I traded up for DeForest Buckner, which IMO is far more plausible than trading up for Zeke. If Buckner falls that is.

 
Bri said:
They might be.
Can you tell me honestly about Eli?

I remember a lot of negativity and a horrendous rookie year. When people claim he was something of Peyton II, I'm...no no no. There's so much revisionist historians in today's world 
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Eli was everything you would want in a college prospect QB, he tore up the SEC as player of the year and was a Heisman runner up. He had an NFL pedigree with Archie as his dad. Then you add the hype of being Peyton's younger brother with better physical tools (although the knock was that he was not the student of the game like Peyton, Peyton was the surgeon, Eli was the gunslinger like Farve.) Everyone knew Eli was the number 1 pick months and months before the draft, in more recent context, just like everyone knew Luck would go number 1.

Once the season ended and it became apparent San Diego was the #1 pick, that's when Eli and Archie started the "I will holdout and will not play for San Diego no matter what" which forced them to trade him to New York. The media had a field-day with the picture of Eli getting drafted #1 by San Diego  with the "I smell ####" look on his face. It's easy to forget that around that time San Diego was considered a perennial doormat team that hadn't had much success in decades. They were talked about like the Browns and Lions or like Tampa before they won their Superbowl.

 
I know the odds are really remote, but doesn't it seem like a huge risk to give up all those picks 2 weeks before the draft?  I mean, what if the player you draft gets hit by a bus or tears a knee while working out for a team.  

 
CalBear said:
It would not be at all surprising to see both Wentz and Goff finish their careers with better than 7.1 YPA and over 59.3% completions, which are Eli's totals through age 34. That's pretty dang mediocre. Of QBs with 3000+ attempts since 2004, Eli is 19th (of 19) in completion percentage, and 13th in yards per attempt.
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I'm not a fan of Goober actually, but you forgot to mention something about 2 Superbowl trophies and 2 Superbowl MVP's one of which was against the "greatest team of all time."

 
stbugs said:
Yeah, when he states that they could come away with 6 starting caliber players that is a bit of a reach. If they are perfect, yes, but since the hit rate in the 1st round is 50%, even getting 3 starting caliber players from those 6 is a win. Just because the "meat" of the draft is 20-70, doesn't mean they are can't miss, I think they say it is the meat of the draft because once you get to late twenties it really starts getting into closely ranked players where you aren't surprised if a guy goes late 1st or drops to mid/late 2nd. It doesn't mean that this is the best 20-70 player pool ever and you should be 6 of 6.
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Yeah, even "starting caliber player" can be a bit of a misnomer. If your roster is pretty bad to start with, it's easy to find new starters in the draft, because your existing guys suck and its easier for rookies to beat them out. The much harder to answer question is if those new rookies turn into guys that would be starters for some of those other/better teams?

 
stbugs said:
Yeah, when he states that they could come away with 6 starting caliber players that is a bit of a reach. If they are perfect, yes, but since the hit rate in the 1st round is 50%, even getting 3 starting caliber players from those 6 is a win. Just because the "meat" of the draft is 20-70, doesn't mean they are can't miss, I think they say it is the meat of the draft because once you get to late twenties it really starts getting into closely ranked players where you aren't surprised if a guy goes late 1st or drops to mid/late 2nd. It doesn't mean that this is the best 20-70 player pool ever and you should be 6 of 6.
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Getting 3 good starters is massive.

And the Titans don't need to sit and take 6 players, they can turn next years 1 into a 2nd and a 3rd, and get two more potential starters.  They could turn all these picks into 10 new players, easily.  EASILY.

And they are getting them all on the cheap.  Locked in, 4 years, cheap.  

Rams, meanwhile, already have a nice group of young talent that need new contracts, and they will be surrounding those players with late round picks, and short term free agent leftovers, who have more expensive contracts than the young talent the Titans will have.  

Basically, the Rams can make a lot less mistakes than the Titans over the next two-three years.  They need to hit on a higher percentage than the rest of the league to keep up, they need UDFA to come in and contribute, they need their good players to stay healthy, because they will have less depth.  And this QB they get?  He needs to be great, not good.  

 
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