Rank these 3rd and 4th round backs... (1 Viewer)

[faux_bear]

in researching possible 3rd and 4th round picks in standard 12 team leagues, it seems that a lot of us will have some tough decisions to make in the 3rd and 4th rounds, particularly if you were unfortunate to land a low draft pick.

A lot of us picking 10th - 12th are ending up with a running back in round 1 (like Portis or Lynch) and then taking a WR in round 2 (like TO or Wayne).

This means that we're almost definitely going to be looking at a RB in the bottom of the third or top of the 4th. but who will be available?

It seems to me that there's a definite tier that ends with McGahee and Jamal Lewis and begins with the guys that I mentioned above: Edge, Turner, Maroney, FWP, Graham, T Jones...

McGahee and Lewis will probably be taken before 3.6 rolls around, which leaves a lot of us scratching our heads over who to take between picks 3.9 and 4.4 (at least I'm scratching my head).

Obviously all these guys have issues that I don't think are worth rehashing at the moment, from age (Edgerrin, T Jones), to being in a potentially anemic offense (Turner) to lack of a proven track record (Graham), to a poor OLine (E. James, Turner). Maroney has been inconsistent and has an incredibly unpredictable head coach...FWP has Mendenhall in the mix...anyway, you get the point. Personally, I haven't been able to sort all these guys out, and it seems like there are a ton of different opinions out on these guys.

If I had to rank them right now, I might go Turner, Maroney, Thomas Jones, Edgerrin James, Ernest Graham, FWP...

Maroney's ADP is at 3.09, so he's no lock to be available late in the 3rd round...neither is Michael Turner after his 4 carry 100 yard game the other night...

anyway, I'd like to hear some of your thoughts on these late 3rd/ early 4th round RB picks.

 

[Jayrod]

T Jones

Turner

.

Edge

.

.

FWP

.

.

.

Maroney

.

Graham

I'd personally take RB/RB then go WR/WR. Lynch or Portis & LJ or MJD makes a nice combo with Holt/Plax or Holt/Welker. I think counting on TJones or Turner wouldn't kill you though and if they don't fall than there is still a premier WR left for you.

Just see who falls to you. I personally am looking for MJD in almost all drafts in the 2nd round no matter where I draft. I just don't see a safer RB2 with as much upside. He could easily end up outscoring both Lynch & Portis, but that's just me. I'm also high on LJ this year.

 

[Skanker]

Turner

 

[davearm]

FWP will outscore all of these guys. The guy's one year removed from scoring 16 TDs. The yards will be there, and last year's 2 TDs was an anomaly.

I'm not a big believer that Mendenhall will have any more impact than Davenport.

I'm also pretty bullish on TJones.

 

[purestrength]

My opinion:

1. M. Turner

2. W. Parker

3. T. Jones

4. E. Graham

5. E. James (great career, but he's obviously on the downside)

6. L. Maroney (definitely on my DND list)

 

[kaa]

I'm bullish on Maroney, but then again I had him last year and in december he went berserk and helped carry my team to the title. I figure that's what you're looking at again with him in 2008. The Patriots may throw more when the weather is nice, but once its cold and snowy, they will for sure run their offense thru Lawrence Maroney. If anything they may run the ball MORE thru him this year, as they aren't trying to set passing records like they were in 07.

 

[kawaihae]

Lendale White is being overlooked here. His numbers last year as a first time starter were a solid #2 RB. He is on a run first team and will get tons of carries. He will get all the goalline carries. And he has a lot of talent.

The Chris Johnson preseason is scaring everyone away and creating good value for Lendale. CJ is a a complementary back who has tons of talent, but is raw in a lot of areas. Remeber that Lendale put up solild #2 numbers last year while sharing carries with Chris Brown and Chris Henry, and I think he'll do it again this year while sharing carries with CJ. If you ask me, Lendale's biggest problem isn't CJ, it's VY, who will gain no respect from opposing defenses.

I think I'm like a lot of people who had Lendale on my "never draft, ever" list based on the reports of his bad work ethic and overweight body. But I think we should look past that now.

I think it goes

TJones

Turner

Lendale

Edge

FWP

Graham

Maroney

But I'm happy with any of them in the 5th round as my #2 after I've taken a bunch of stud WRs, a QB and a great RB1.

 

[Blood Hound]

I'm not a big believer that Mendenhall will have any more impact than Davenport.

The Steelers used their first round pick on nothing more than a goal line specialist instead of just keeping Davenport?

 

[kawaihae]

FWP will outscore all of these guys. The guy's one year removed from scoring 16 TDs. The yards will be there, and last year's 2 TDs was an anomaly.I'm not a big believer that Mendenhall will have any more impact than Davenport.I'm also pretty bullish on TJones.

I love FWP's game, but I'm a believer in watching the Oline's offseason development when judging a RB. Pittsburgh's line didn't look that great last year, and took a big step back in the offseason. Take that, added with Mendenhall's carries, and Bruce Arian's pass happy approach, and I think you gotta knock down FWP a little. Remember that FWP's 16 TDs and great year were under a whole different, run first, coaching regime that included Cowher and Whisenhunt.

I'm bullish on Maroney, but then again I had him last year and in december he went berserk and helped carry my team to the title. I figure that's what you're looking at again with him in 2008. The Patriots may throw more when the weather is nice, but once its cold and snowy, they will for sure run their offense thru Lawrence Maroney. If anything they may run the ball MORE thru him this year, as they aren't trying to set passing records like they were in 07.

What makes you think that the Pats won't be throwing that much this year. They went 18-1 last year throwing it a ton, why change? I'm ranking Maroney low on the thought that they will be throwing a bunch again, and giving the goal line stuff to Jordan and Sammy.

 

[David Yudkin]

I'm bullish on Maroney, but then again I had him last year and in december he went berserk and helped carry my team to the title. I figure that's what you're looking at again with him in 2008. The Patriots may throw more when the weather is nice, but once its cold and snowy, they will for sure run their offense thru Lawrence Maroney. If anything they may run the ball MORE thru him this year, as they aren't trying to set passing records like they were in 07.

Riddle me this. What other options did they have at RB at the end of the year last year?If Jordan and Morris are healthy in any given week (and Faulk playing on passing downs and 3rd down), wouldn't is stand to reason that Maroney would get the same limited amount of work he always gets?

 

[Tanner9919]

FWP will outscore all of these guys. The guy's one year removed from scoring 16 TDs. The yards will be there, and last year's 2 TDs was an anomaly.

I'm not a big believer that Mendenhall will have any more impact than Davenport.

I'm also pretty bullish on TJones.

I love FWP's game, but I'm a believer in watching the Oline's offseason development when judging a RB. Pittsburgh's line didn't look that great last year, and took a big step back in the offseason. Take that, added with Mendenhall's carries, and Bruce Arian's pass happy approach, and I think you gotta knock down FWP a little. Remember that FWP's 16 TDs and great year were under a whole different, run first, coaching regime that included Cowher and Whisenhunt.

I'm bullish on Maroney, but then again I had him last year and in december he went berserk and helped carry my team to the title. I figure that's what you're looking at again with him in 2008. The Patriots may throw more when the weather is nice, but once its cold and snowy, they will for sure run their offense thru Lawrence Maroney. If anything they may run the ball MORE thru him this year, as they aren't trying to set passing records like they were in 07.

What makes you think that the Pats won't be throwing that much this year. They went 18-1 last year throwing it a ton, why change? I'm ranking Maroney low on the thought that they will be throwing a bunch again, and giving the goal line stuff to Jordan and Sammy.

Judging by the way the Ravens, Eagles, Giants, Chargers played NE late last season, Brady will get killed this year if they continue to drop him back to pass on every down..These teams played well against NE, and you even heard the announcers in the Philly game saying that perhaps the Eagles had laid the groundwork or the foundation for how to defeat the Pats..Every team on NE's schedule this season, has studied every single down from 2007 to see how to better defend against Brady and Co...you don't really think Brady will just show up opening day and it will once again be like opening day 2007, throwing hay-makers to Moss all day long, do you?!if that pass-happy mentality really works, why didn't the Colts stick with it the year after Manning threw 49 TDs?! I mean, it worked well for them , right, so why change?



What am I missing here: NE reportedly plays 'the easiest schedule in the history of the NFL'.So why, then, would they need to pass pass pass when they can run the ball down an opponent's throat, presumably a defensively-challenged opponent ..?

Also, remember that Brady has shoulder problems, he has ankle problems, etc..they can't win a title without him..so they don't want to risk injury by getting him sacked 5 times per game...

and, to mask or hide a poor defense like the one NE will likely have this season after being ransacked by free-agency, they will need to run the ball to keep their own defense off the field and to keep those 50-yr old retirees ( Teddy B and Vrabel and Harrison and Co) as fresh as they can..

its simple x's and o's..if your opponent can't stop the run,why would you EVER need to pass the ball?!

not a chance that Brady throws anything near 50 TD's this season..he'll be lucky to toss 30 TDs..the way Maroney ran late last season and in the playoffs, I'm willing to bet he's going to be the focal point of the Pats offense this season..

he's going to be on f-i-r-e !

Maroney - easiest schedule has to mean something !

TJones

Lendale - Chris Johnson is too small to take this job from Lendale..

FWP - RBBC

Graham

::

::

Turner - fools gold...one good preseason game does not a stud RB make..once they play 'for real' , defenses will stack the line with 8-in-the-box to stop the run and force Ryan into passing the ball ..and then its all a big ole'



::Edge...I'd rather take Hightower then Chris Johnson..Edge won't last the season as the starting RB for Az...

 

[David Yudkin]

FWP will outscore all of these guys. The guy's one year removed from scoring 16 TDs. The yards will be there, and last year's 2 TDs was an anomaly.

I'm not a big believer that Mendenhall will have any more impact than Davenport.

I'm also pretty bullish on TJones.

I love FWP's game, but I'm a believer in watching the Oline's offseason development when judging a RB. Pittsburgh's line didn't look that great last year, and took a big step back in the offseason. Take that, added with Mendenhall's carries, and Bruce Arian's pass happy approach, and I think you gotta knock down FWP a little. Remember that FWP's 16 TDs and great year were under a whole different, run first, coaching regime that included Cowher and Whisenhunt.

I'm bullish on Maroney, but then again I had him last year and in december he went berserk and helped carry my team to the title. I figure that's what you're looking at again with him in 2008. The Patriots may throw more when the weather is nice, but once its cold and snowy, they will for sure run their offense thru Lawrence Maroney. If anything they may run the ball MORE thru him this year, as they aren't trying to set passing records like they were in 07.

What makes you think that the Pats won't be throwing that much this year. They went 18-1 last year throwing it a ton, why change? I'm ranking Maroney low on the thought that they will be throwing a bunch again, and giving the goal line stuff to Jordan and Sammy.

Judging by the way the Ravens, Eagles, Giants, Chargers played NE late last season, Brady will get killed this year if they continue to drop him back to pass on every down..These teams played well against NE, and you even heard the announcers in the Philly game saying that perhaps the Eagles had laid the groundwork or the foundation for how to defeat the Pats..Every team on NE's schedule this season, has studied every single down from 2007 to see how to better defend against Brady and Co...you don't really think Brady will just show up opening day and it will once again be like opening day 2007, throwing hay-makers to Moss all day long, do you?!if that pass-happy mentality really works, why didn't the Colts stick with it the year after Manning threw 49 TDs?! I mean, it worked well for them , right, so why change?



What am I missing here: NE reportedly plays 'the easiest schedule in the history of the NFL'.So why, then, would they need to pass pass pass when they can run the ball down an opponent's throat, presumably a defensively-challenged opponent ..?

Also, remember that Brady has shoulder problems, he has ankle problems, etc..they can't win a title without him..so they don't want to risk injury by getting him sacked 5 times per game...

and, to mask or hide a poor defense like the one NE will likely have this season after being ransacked by free-agency, they will need to run the ball to keep their own defense off the field and to keep those 50-yr old retirees ( Teddy B and Vrabel and Harrison and Co) as fresh as they can..

its simple x's and o's..if your opponent can't stop the run,why would you EVER need to pass the ball?!

not a chance that Brady throws anything near 50 TD's this season..he'll be lucky to toss 30 TDs..the way Maroney ran late last season and in the playoffs, I'm willing to bet he's going to be the focal point of the Pats offense this season..

he's going to be on f-i-r-e !

Maroney - easiest schedule has to mean something !

TJones

Lendale - Chris Johnson is too small to take this job from Lendale..

FWP - RBBC

Graham

::

::

Turner - fools gold...one good preseason game does not a stud RB make..once they play 'for real' , defenses will stack the line with 8-in-the-box to stop the run and force Ryan into passing the ball ..and then its all a big ole'



::Edge...I'd rather take Hightower then Chris Johnson..Edge won't last the season as the starting RB for Az...

I see ZERO evidence to suggest that the focus of the Pats offense will be Maroney. I have written all the reasons why in articles and other threads if you want to look them up.

 

[faux_bear]

This thread is confirming what I probably already knew...that after Jamal Lewis, Willis McGahee, and Reggie Bush are drafted, there is simply no great value at RB within the next tier of backs in the late 3rd/early 4th rounds...

 

[Cool in the pocket]

FWP will outscore all of these guys. The guy's one year removed from scoring 16 TDs. The yards will be there, and last year's 2 TDs was an anomaly.

I'm not a big believer that Mendenhall will have any more impact than Davenport.

I'm also pretty bullish on TJones.

With only a 3 year sampling, how do you know that the 16 TD year isn't the anomaly?2005--255/1202/5

2006--337/1494/16

2007--321/1316/2

The only evidence I can offer is the crazy amount of redzone TD's Ben had. That prolly won't happen this year. Was that by design? Cuz the OL/RB couldn't punch it in? An now you have added a first round RB and Russell to the GL mix potentially.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Turner

Turner is overrated.... nice sig.

 

[Itchy Amos]

This thread is confirming what I probably already knew...that after Jamal Lewis, Willis McGahee, and Reggie Bush are drafted, there is simply no great value at RB within the next tier of backs in the late 3rd/early 4th rounds...

I dont think I would go that far, especially when you throw Reggie Bush into the equation. I am a big fan of using the median ppg value of the previous year as a baseline for my current year production. It boils it down to what you can expect from a given player from week to week. So many stats are skewed by one or two big weeks. People remember these big weeks and forget the other 10 weeks when their poor production cost your team.

Here is how I have them projected listed as player/last years median ppg/guess at this years median ppg:

(as a point of reference last years RB12 was McGahee/13.0)

#1 Graham/16.8/13.0 -only Ronnie Brown/17.0 produced slightly better median numbers on a per game basis last year. Graham was #2, slightly ahead of LT/16.6. His average score was only 14.6, but at the 4/5 turn you probably shouldnt be looking for a running back to carry your team. I project Graham's ppg to drop to by about 25% from last year for a couple of reason. The first is that most people dont think that Graham is supremely talented, including his front office. It took him 5 years to start and then they rewarded him with a relatively modest amount of guaranteed money. The team brought back Warrick Dunn. He is probably going to take a bigger chunk out of Grahams playing time than did Pittman, but I would be surprised if it was that much. Pittman was injured much of last year, but when he did play at the end of the season in weeks 11,13, & 15-18 - Graham still averaged 14.6 ppg.

Graham has some real positives going for him. He is a good goal line back. He was very productive when called upon and he was productive last year when Pittman was healthy. I think that Graham is the class of this group by a longshot, especially when you factor in the extra touches that he will get from receptions. (I am completely discounting the possibility of Caddilac being able to be productive this season)

#2a Turner/NA/11.5 Turner compares well with Larry Johnson's situation last year (before he got injured). Johnson/11.8 was hampered by poor offensive line play and opponents limited concern to defend the passing game. That is pretty similar to Turners situation. I list him above Jones because he may prove to be a special talent and probably has more upside.

#2b Jones/7.7/11.5 Jones numbers were really depressed last year due to his lack of touch downs. Improvements in the offensive line coupled with the arrival of Brett Favre and the inevitable rise in his paltry touchdown production should bring him up to the RB15 range.

#4 Maroney/9.7/10.5 He was outplayed by Morris last year when Morris was healthy. He is always injured. As a NE homer, I think he ususally runs tentatively. The team added Lamont Jordan. Morris is healthy. I just dont see why the Patriots would decide to feature him any more than they did when he was healthy last year. Sure, he had a good post season, but the team had no other real options at RB and now they do. I have a hard time projecting him to do this well, but he will probably get into the end zone about 10 times if he stays healthy. I could see him providing several real team killing performances. You are not going to know when he will be getting carries from game to game.

#5 James/9.7/10.0 James finished in the top 12 last year, but was very pedestrian from game to game. He played every game and that helped him to aquire enough stats to be in the top of the total points category at the end of the year. His offensive line is not great, he is not a good goal line back and may not even have goal line duties due to the arrival of Tim Hightower. I dont see that he can improve upon last year that much.

#6 White/11.2/10.0 White was solid last year. I think he will perform about the same as he did last year, but rookie Chris Johnson may eat into his carries if he is as good as advertised. White is going in the beginning of round 6, so if you can get him there that is solid value. He would be a great RB3 (or RB2 if you were able to solidify everything else through the first 5 rounds).

so that is my 2 cents.

 

[kaa]

I'm bullish on Maroney, but then again I had him last year and in december he went berserk and helped carry my team to the title. I figure that's what you're looking at again with him in 2008. The Patriots may throw more when the weather is nice, but once its cold and snowy, they will for sure run their offense thru Lawrence Maroney. If anything they may run the ball MORE thru him this year, as they aren't trying to set passing records like they were in 07.

Riddle me this. What other options did they have at RB at the end of the year last year?If Jordan and Morris are healthy in any given week (and Faulk playing on passing downs and 3rd down), wouldn't is stand to reason that Maroney would get the same limited amount of work he always gets?

You make it sound like he is a 10 year veteran. Maroney was a rookie in 2006 and saw limited carries. He got more carries in year 2, maybe due to injury to others, or maybe it was going to happen anyway as he progresses in the NFL. In year 3, he may get even more of the load. Of course there is risk that it may wind up a horrible RBBC with Faulk and Morris - that's why we are discussing him as a 3rd or 4th round back in the first place. But I'm bullish as he is a young RB seeing his production rise each season.

 

[David Yudkin]

I'm bullish on Maroney, but then again I had him last year and in december he went berserk and helped carry my team to the title. I figure that's what you're looking at again with him in 2008. The Patriots may throw more when the weather is nice, but once its cold and snowy, they will for sure run their offense thru Lawrence Maroney. If anything they may run the ball MORE thru him this year, as they aren't trying to set passing records like they were in 07.

Riddle me this. What other options did they have at RB at the end of the year last year?If Jordan and Morris are healthy in any given week (and Faulk playing on passing downs and 3rd down), wouldn't is stand to reason that Maroney would get the same limited amount of work he always gets?

You make it sound like he is a 10 year veteran. Maroney was a rookie in 2006 and saw limited carries. He got more carries in year 2, maybe due to injury to others, or maybe it was going to happen anyway as he progresses in the NFL. In year 3, he may get even more of the load. Of course there is risk that it may wind up a horrible RBBC with Faulk and Morris - that's why we are discussing him as a 3rd or 4th round back in the first place. But I'm bullish as he is a young RB seeing his production rise each season.

I see that you are fairly new, so welcome and good luck in the upcoming season.You may or may not be aware that I have some connections with the inner sanctum of the Pats, and I'm not hearing that Maroney is going to become the focal point of the offense and in fact I'm hearing all things that would lead me to think he will again NOT be the focal point of the offense. I'm certainly not suggesting that this is etched in stone and Maroney is going to tank, but from prior usage, prior things I've been told, and the things I have heard I don't see Maroney approaching RB1 numbers.If healthy he will probably rank in the mid to bottom of the RB2s (high teens to low twenties). If people will be content with that no matter where they draft him, then great. But I would be extremely surprised to see him rank much higher than that.My $0.02 . . .

 

[davearm]

I'm not a big believer that Mendenhall will have any more impact than Davenport.

The Steelers used their first round pick on nothing more than a goal line specialist instead of just keeping Davenport?

Allow me to clarify.I think the Steelers view Mendenhall as their feature back of the future, and the guy that will eventually take the baton from FWP.I just don't see that happening this year, with FWP still youngish and productive, and especially with the lukewarm camp reports on Mendenhall.So for 2008, I don't see Mendenhall biting off a bigger chunk of FWP's action than Davenport did. Beyond '08 is another story.

 

[davearm]

FWP will outscore all of these guys. The guy's one year removed from scoring 16 TDs. The yards will be there, and last year's 2 TDs was an anomaly.I'm not a big believer that Mendenhall will have any more impact than Davenport.I'm also pretty bullish on TJones.

I love FWP's game, but I'm a believer in watching the Oline's offseason development when judging a RB. Pittsburgh's line didn't look that great last year, and took a big step back in the offseason. Take that, added with Mendenhall's carries, and Bruce Arian's pass happy approach, and I think you gotta knock down FWP a little. Remember that FWP's 16 TDs and great year were under a whole different, run first, coaching regime that included Cowher and Whisenhunt.

These are excellent points. The Steelers' OLine concerns me, too.

 

[davearm]

FWP will outscore all of these guys. The guy's one year removed from scoring 16 TDs. The yards will be there, and last year's 2 TDs was an anomaly.

I'm not a big believer that Mendenhall will have any more impact than Davenport.

I'm also pretty bullish on TJones.

With only a 3 year sampling, how do you know that the 16 TD year isn't the anomaly?2005--255/1202/5

2006--337/1494/16

2007--321/1316/2

The only evidence I can offer is the crazy amount of redzone TD's Ben had. That prolly won't happen this year. Was that by design? Cuz the OL/RB couldn't punch it in? An now you have added a first round RB and Russell to the GL mix potentially.

Both '06 and '07 were anomalies for FWP.I used the Data Dominator to research the TD production of RBs with 1200-1500 combined rushing and receiving yards, from 2002-2007. That universe of RBs was 59 large.

12 guys had 5 or fewer TDs, and 12 guys had 10 or more TDs. 35 of 59 had between 6 and 9 TDs.

IMO FWP is getting dinged in drafts far too much for that 2 TD outlier, just as he got overvalued for the 16 TD outlier in last year's drafts.

1300-1400 combined yards and 7 or 8 TDs seems like a reasonable projection to me, so long as you're comfortable expecting 250+ carries. That's RB15 or better.

 

[proninja]

I'm bullish on Maroney, but then again I had him last year and in december he went berserk and helped carry my team to the title. I figure that's what you're looking at again with him in 2008. The Patriots may throw more when the weather is nice, but once its cold and snowy, they will for sure run their offense thru Lawrence Maroney. If anything they may run the ball MORE thru him this year, as they aren't trying to set passing records like they were in 07.

Riddle me this. What other options did they have at RB at the end of the year last year?If Jordan and Morris are healthy in any given week (and Faulk playing on passing downs and 3rd down), wouldn't is stand to reason that Maroney would get the same limited amount of work he always gets?

You make it sound like he is a 10 year veteran. Maroney was a rookie in 2006 and saw limited carries. He got more carries in year 2, maybe due to injury to others, or maybe it was going to happen anyway as he progresses in the NFL. In year 3, he may get even more of the load. Of course there is risk that it may wind up a horrible RBBC with Faulk and Morris - that's why we are discussing him as a 3rd or 4th round back in the first place. But I'm bullish as he is a young RB seeing his production rise each season.

I see that you are fairly new, so welcome and good luck in the upcoming season.You may or may not be aware that I have some connections with the inner sanctum of the Pats, and I'm not hearing that Maroney is going to become the focal point of the offense and in fact I'm hearing all things that would lead me to think he will again NOT be the focal point of the offense. I'm certainly not suggesting that this is etched in stone and Maroney is going to tank, but from prior usage, prior things I've been told, and the things I have heard I don't see Maroney approaching RB1 numbers.If healthy he will probably rank in the mid to bottom of the RB2s (high teens to low twenties). If people will be content with that no matter where they draft him, then great. But I would be extremely surprised to see him rank much higher than that.My $0.02 . . .

He's not new.

 

[kaa]

I'm certainly not suggesting that this is etched in stone and Maroney is going to tank, but from prior usage, prior things I've been told, and the things I have heard I don't see Maroney approaching RB1 numbers.

I agree. I don't see him as an RB1 either. In fact, we're discussing a guy being picked in the 3rd or 4th round. I don't see much disagreement in our assessment. We're just parsing things differently.

 

[David Yudkin]

He's not new.

At least his board name is new . . .

 

[cmv5]

FWP will outscore all of these guys. The guy's one year removed from scoring 16 TDs. The yards will be there, and last year's 2 TDs was an anomaly.

I'm not a big believer that Mendenhall will have any more impact than Davenport.

I'm also pretty bullish on TJones.

With only a 3 year sampling, how do you know that the 16 TD year isn't the anomaly?2005--255/1202/5

2006--337/1494/16

2007--321/1316/2

The only evidence I can offer is the crazy amount of redzone TD's Ben had. That prolly won't happen this year. Was that by design? Cuz the OL/RB couldn't punch it in? An now you have added a first round RB and Russell to the GL mix potentially.

Both '06 and '07 were anomalies for FWP.I used the Data Dominator to research the TD production of RBs with 1200-1500 combined rushing and receiving yards, from 2002-2007. That universe of RBs was 59 large.

12 guys had 5 or fewer TDs, and 12 guys had 10 or more TDs. 35 of 59 had between 6 and 9 TDs.

IMO FWP is getting dinged in drafts far too much for that 2 TD outlier, just as he got overvalued for the 16 TD outlier in last year's drafts.

1300-1400 combined yards and 7 or 8 TDs seems like a reasonable projection to me, so long as you're comfortable expecting 250+ carries. That's RB15 or better.

I look at that information and then I think of Fred Taylor who pretty much posts 5 touchdowns a year with 1200 yards. I think FWP is in a similar situation to Taylor.

 

[Cool in the pocket]

FWP will outscore all of these guys. The guy's one year removed from scoring 16 TDs. The yards will be there, and last year's 2 TDs was an anomaly.

I'm not a big believer that Mendenhall will have any more impact than Davenport.

I'm also pretty bullish on TJones.

With only a 3 year sampling, how do you know that the 16 TD year isn't the anomaly?2005--255/1202/5

2006--337/1494/16

2007--321/1316/2

The only evidence I can offer is the crazy amount of redzone TD's Ben had. That prolly won't happen this year. Was that by design? Cuz the OL/RB couldn't punch it in? And now you have added a first round RB and Russell to the GL mix potentially.

Both '06 and '07 were anomalies for FWP.I used the Data Dominator to research the TD production of RBs with 1200-1500 combined rushing and receiving yards, from 2002-2007. That universe of RBs was 59 large.

12 guys had 5 or fewer TDs, and 12 guys had 10 or more TDs. 35 of 59 had between 6 and 9 TDs.

IMO FWP is getting dinged in drafts far too much for that 2 TD outlier, just as he got overvalued for the 16 TD outlier in last year's drafts.

1300-1400 combined yards and 7 or 8 TDs seems like a reasonable projection to me, so long as you're comfortable expecting 250+ carries. That's RB15 or better.

I think your TD's are a touch high for my liking, but I can live with it. The bolded part I am in total agreement with. T Jones and F Taylor, who someone else mentioned, are other examples of guys getting dinged for past performance (IE lack of TD's). It's been repeated many times, but past production is no indicator of future production, only one tool in the assessment thereof yet this seems to be "forgotten" year over year.

 

[thecardiackid]

This thread is confirming what I probably already knew...that after Jamal Lewis, Willis McGahee, and Reggie Bush are drafted, there is simply no great value at RB within the next tier of backs in the late 3rd/early 4th rounds...

I dont think I would go that far, especially when you throw Reggie Bush into the equation. I am a big fan of using the median ppg value of the previous year as a baseline for my current year production. It boils it down to what you can expect from a given player from week to week. So many stats are skewed by one or two big weeks. People remember these big weeks and forget the other 10 weeks when their poor production cost your team.

Here is how I have them projected listed as player/last years median ppg/guess at this years median ppg:

(as a point of reference last years RB12 was McGahee/13.0)

#1 Graham/16.8/13.0 -only Ronnie Brown/17.0 produced slightly better median numbers on a per game basis last year. Graham was #2, slightly ahead of LT/16.6. His average score was only 14.6, but at the 4/5 turn you probably shouldnt be looking for a running back to carry your team. I project Graham's ppg to drop to by about 25% from last year for a couple of reason. The first is that most people dont think that Graham is supremely talented, including his front office. It took him 5 years to start and then they rewarded him with a relatively modest amount of guaranteed money. The team brought back Warrick Dunn. He is probably going to take a bigger chunk out of Grahams playing time than did Pittman, but I would be surprised if it was that much. Pittman was injured much of last year, but when he did play at the end of the season in weeks 11,13, & 15-18 - Graham still averaged 14.6 ppg.

Graham has some real positives going for him. He is a good goal line back. He was very productive when called upon and he was productive last year when Pittman was healthy. I think that Graham is the class of this group by a longshot, especially when you factor in the extra touches that he will get from receptions. (I am completely discounting the possibility of Caddilac being able to be productive this season)

#2a Turner/NA/11.5 Turner compares well with Larry Johnson's situation last year (before he got injured). Johnson/11.8 was hampered by poor offensive line play and opponents limited concern to defend the passing game. That is pretty similar to Turners situation. I list him above Jones because he may prove to be a special talent and probably has more upside.

#2b Jones/7.7/11.5 Jones numbers were really depressed last year due to his lack of touch downs. Improvements in the offensive line coupled with the arrival of Brett Favre and the inevitable rise in his paltry touchdown production should bring him up to the RB15 range.

#4 Maroney/9.7/10.5 He was outplayed by Morris last year when Morris was healthy. He is always injured. As a NE homer, I think he ususally runs tentatively. The team added Lamont Jordan. Morris is healthy. I just dont see why the Patriots would decide to feature him any more than they did when he was healthy last year. Sure, he had a good post season, but the team had no other real options at RB and now they do. I have a hard time projecting him to do this well, but he will probably get into the end zone about 10 times if he stays healthy. I could see him providing several real team killing performances. You are not going to know when he will be getting carries from game to game.

#5 James/9.7/10.0 James finished in the top 12 last year, but was very pedestrian from game to game. He played every game and that helped him to aquire enough stats to be in the top of the total points category at the end of the year. His offensive line is not great, he is not a good goal line back and may not even have goal line duties due to the arrival of Tim Hightower. I dont see that he can improve upon last year that much.

#6 White/11.2/10.0 White was solid last year. I think he will perform about the same as he did last year, but rookie Chris Johnson may eat into his carries if he is as good as advertised. White is going in the beginning of round 6, so if you can get him there that is solid value. He would be a great RB3 (or RB2 if you were able to solidify everything else through the first 5 rounds).

so that is my 2 cents.

that is a damn I might take Fatdale over Edge, but the rest is soild (rankings and comments)

 

[Jeff Haseley]

I've got these backs ranked...

PPR

16 Thomas Jones

17 Earnest Graham

19 Edgerrin James

21 Michael Turner

22 Willie Parker

27 Laurence Maroney

 

[kaa]

I've got these backs ranked...

PPR

16 Thomas Jones

17 Earnest Graham

19 Edgerrin James

21 Michael Turner

22 Willie Parker

27 Laurence Maroney

This makes me chuckle - and Jeff is probably correct. According to these rankings, the only RB in this group that is a true "3rd or 4th round RB" is Maroney. The others probably are 2nd to 3rd round types.

 

[David Yudkin]

Most recent ADPs . . .

Laurence Maroney - 33

Earnest Graham - 37

Michael Turner - 38

Thomas Jones - 40

Willie Parker - 41

Edgerrin James - 47

Looks like they are all 3rd to 4th round picks.

 

[kaa]

Most recent ADPs . . .Laurence Maroney - 33Earnest Graham - 37Michael Turner - 38Thomas Jones - 40Willie Parker - 41Edgerrin James - 47Looks like they are all 3rd to 4th round picks.

Well now those are some dumb rankings.

 

[hostile]

Most recent ADPs . . .Laurence Maroney - 33Earnest Graham - 37Michael Turner - 38Thomas Jones - 40Willie Parker - 41Edgerrin James - 47Looks like they are all 3rd to 4th round picks.

Well now those are some dumb rankings.

Actually, they're pretty bang-on from what I've been seeing/mocking out there...

 

[swirvenirvin]

I really don't undertsand why so many people are down on Graham

 

[kaa]

Most recent ADPs . . .Laurence Maroney - 33Earnest Graham - 37Michael Turner - 38Thomas Jones - 40Willie Parker - 41Edgerrin James - 47Looks like they are all 3rd to 4th round picks.

Well now those are some dumb rankings.

Actually, they're pretty bang-on from what I've been seeing/mocking out there...

That's because some people take marginal WR1s when there's boatloads of WR talent out there in later rounds.

 

[davearm]

FWP will outscore all of these guys. The guy's one year removed from scoring 16 TDs. The yards will be there, and last year's 2 TDs was an anomaly.

I'm not a big believer that Mendenhall will have any more impact than Davenport.

I'm also pretty bullish on TJones.

With only a 3 year sampling, how do you know that the 16 TD year isn't the anomaly?2005--255/1202/5

2006--337/1494/16

2007--321/1316/2

The only evidence I can offer is the crazy amount of redzone TD's Ben had. That prolly won't happen this year. Was that by design? Cuz the OL/RB couldn't punch it in? And now you have added a first round RB and Russell to the GL mix potentially.

Both '06 and '07 were anomalies for FWP.I used the Data Dominator to research the TD production of RBs with 1200-1500 combined rushing and receiving yards, from 2002-2007. That universe of RBs was 59 large.

12 guys had 5 or fewer TDs, and 12 guys had 10 or more TDs. 35 of 59 had between 6 and 9 TDs.

IMO FWP is getting dinged in drafts far too much for that 2 TD outlier, just as he got overvalued for the 16 TD outlier in last year's drafts.

1300-1400 combined yards and 7 or 8 TDs seems like a reasonable projection to me, so long as you're comfortable expecting 250+ carries. That's RB15 or better.

I think your TD's are a touch high for my liking, but I can live with it. The bolded part I am in total agreement with. T Jones and F Taylor, who someone else mentioned, are other examples of guys getting dinged for past performance (IE lack of TD's). It's been repeated many times, but past production is no indicator of future production, only one tool in the assessment thereof yet this seems to be "forgotten" year over year.

FWIW, the average # of TDs across that sample of 59 guys that I mentioned was 7.6.

 

[davearm]

FWP will outscore all of these guys. The guy's one year removed from scoring 16 TDs. The yards will be there, and last year's 2 TDs was an anomaly.

I'm not a big believer that Mendenhall will have any more impact than Davenport.

I'm also pretty bullish on TJones.

With only a 3 year sampling, how do you know that the 16 TD year isn't the anomaly?2005--255/1202/5

2006--337/1494/16

2007--321/1316/2

The only evidence I can offer is the crazy amount of redzone TD's Ben had. That prolly won't happen this year. Was that by design? Cuz the OL/RB couldn't punch it in? An now you have added a first round RB and Russell to the GL mix potentially.

Both '06 and '07 were anomalies for FWP.I used the Data Dominator to research the TD production of RBs with 1200-1500 combined rushing and receiving yards, from 2002-2007. That universe of RBs was 59 large.

12 guys had 5 or fewer TDs, and 12 guys had 10 or more TDs. 35 of 59 had between 6 and 9 TDs.

IMO FWP is getting dinged in drafts far too much for that 2 TD outlier, just as he got overvalued for the 16 TD outlier in last year's drafts.

1300-1400 combined yards and 7 or 8 TDs seems like a reasonable projection to me, so long as you're comfortable expecting 250+ carries. That's RB15 or better.

I look at that information and then I think of Fred Taylor who pretty much posts 5 touchdowns a year with 1200 yards. I think FWP is in a similar situation to Taylor.

I wouldn't put anyone on the Steelers' roster in MJD's class.

 

[Steel Town]

I really don't undertsand why so many people are down on Graham

Count me as one of those guys. I think the addition of Dunn will cut into his numbers, and a healthy (granted that's a big if) Cadillac also has to be considered. Truth be told, even without those other backs in play, I question whether he is really that good.

 

[David Yudkin]

I really don't undertsand why so many people are down on Graham

Count me as one of those guys. I think the addition of Dunn will cut into his numbers, and a healthy (granted that's a big if) Cadillac also has to be considered. Truth be told, even without those other backs in play, I question whether he is really that good.

IIRC, TB has said Dunn will be used primarily as a receiver out of the backfield. And Caddy is still a long way from playing. So I wouldn't worry about those two. Bennett, on the other hand . . .

 

[Binky The Doormat]

I really don't undertsand why so many people are down on Graham

Count me as one of those guys. I think the addition of Dunn will cut into his numbers, and a healthy (granted that's a big if) Cadillac also has to be considered. Truth be told, even without those other backs in play, I question whether he is really that good.

IIRC, TB has said Dunn will be used primarily as a receiver out of the backfield. And Caddy is still a long way from playing. So I wouldn't worry about those two. Bennett, on the other hand . . .

DavidI am very interested in your rankings. I saw an initial take on the expert rankings (for RBs only) a while back but don't see them anymore - any plans for updates or other rankings and background takes?Bink

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

Count me in the group that thinks Graham is going to see significantly less work. He could see 8+ TD's but I look for Dunn & Bennett to take a big chunk. I really like what I've seen from Bennett thus far.(I know, we've heard it 1000 times already. But he brings the speed/power combo than neither Graham/Dunn brings.)

Graham: 225 850 7 TD

 

[Markus P Dub]

Sporting News digital issue this morning mentioned that Graham could see some time at full back with the hammy injury to BJ Askew. Noting that the Bucs would/could rely on Bennet & Dunn in the back field. interesting.

 

[Itchy Amos]

Sporting News digital issue this morning mentioned that Graham could see some time at full back with the hammy injury to BJ Askew. Noting that the Bucs would/could rely on Bennet & Dunn in the back field. interesting.

That is eye opening news. I am beginning to think that I have underestimated their confidence in Bennett.

 

[ramsfan]

T JonesTurner.Edge..FWP...Maroney.GrahamI'd personally take RB/RB then go WR/WR. Lynch or Portis & LJ or MJD makes a nice combo with Holt/Plax or Holt/Welker. I think counting on TJones or Turner wouldn't kill you though and if they don't fall than there is still a premier WR left for you.Just see who falls to you. I personally am looking for MJD in almost all drafts in the 2nd round no matter where I draft. I just don't see a safer RB2 with as much upside. He could easily end up outscoring both Lynch & Portis, but that's just me. I'm also high on LJ this year.

Good post, same rank as me, I would flip flop Graham and Maroney, but that is because Maroney killed me last year.

 

[Gbagzz]

I'm not a big believer that Mendenhall will have any more impact than Davenport.

The Steelers used their first round pick on nothing more than a goal line specialist instead of just keeping Davenport?

They took him in the first b/c they were worried about the severity of their workhorse backs injury... not b/c they didn't like him or he was ineffective. If Parker plays well and shows he's healthy there's no reason to believe his yardage would decline and his TD's will go up if anything.

 

[wombat104]

Drafting out of the 7th spot (out of 12) I had this exact decision. Standard scoring 6 per touch, 1 per 10 yards, no PPR.

For some reason Addai slid to me, so I snapped him up. Went WR/WR with the 2nd and 3rd rounds, grabbing Wayne and Andre Johnson.

In the 4th I had my choice of pretty much all of these backs and went with Jones. I just think the o-line improvements and defenses having to respect Farve's arm strength should help him have a great rebound year. In the 5th Graham was still there so I grabbed him too.

 

[j3r3m3y]

FWP will outscore all of these guys. The guy's one year removed from scoring 16 TDs. The yards will be there, and last year's 2 TDs was an anomaly.I'm not a big believer that Mendenhall will have any more impact than Davenport.I'm also pretty bullish on TJones.

2 TDs are an anomaly but 16 aren't?

 

[davearm]

FWP will outscore all of these guys. The guy's one year removed from scoring 16 TDs. The yards will be there, and last year's 2 TDs was an anomaly.I'm not a big believer that Mendenhall will have any more impact than Davenport.I'm also pretty bullish on TJones.

2 TDs are an anomaly but 16 aren't?

Who said that?Obviously you haven't read the whole thread because this very issue has already been addressed.

 

[flufhed]

Great stuff in here, guys.