Rank these four: Kemp, Rios, McClouth, Bay (1 Viewer)

[Nigel]

I have the second pick in my first ever draft. All of the other guys have been doing this for years. 12 team 5x5 league with 4 positional keepers and 2 pitcher keepers. I kept:

Berkman 1B

Hamilton OF

Ichiro OF

Russel Martin C

Johan SP

Volquez SP

I have the 2nd pick tonight and have narrowed it down to Kemp, Rios, McClouth and Bay. I had also considered Alexei Ramirez but after reading the thread here on him it sounds lke the room is split on him.

Who do you guys like at this spot?

Also, our rosters are 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, DH, MI, CI, 5OF, 5SP, 3RP

After the 1st Round tonight I'll have taken 3 OF, 1B, C and 2SP. Any general advice on how to proceed with the next few rounds? Are there positions you guys usually wait until later to draft?

And finally - what is the deal with Sin-Shoo Choo? Where is he going in your drafts lately? In the myofficepool draft kit linked in another thread he is ranked very high among outfielders based on their projections (right up there with the four guys I'm asking you to rank), but his ADP is in the 18th round. When should I jump on this guy?

 

[guru_007]

If its a keeper league I'm going Kemp. McClouth, Rios and Bay after that, but pretty big gap, imo.

I think drafting offense first, heavy and often is almost always best. Not sure why you're keeping Volquez, but what's done is done.

Depending on what's out there, I'd work on filling up my infield ASAP, maybe a few relievers. Id' sit tight on starting pitching for many rounds.

Choo Choo is an interesting pick. Being that you are already going to have 3 OF's, you should probably wait on him awhile. I'm not a huge fan, but if you can grab him as a #5 OF real late, that could work out well.

g'luck

 

[Limp Ditka]

My advice would to be to look long and hard at an IF first.

 

[Eephus]

In redrafts I like Bay, Kemp, McLouth and Rios in that order but I think most people will put Kemp at the top. Kemp definitely has the higher ceiling but that comes with some risk. Your keepers are pretty solid so you could probably afford the risk.

If Kemp has his breakout, he could replace Ichiro as a keeper for next year.

 

[cosjobs]

In redrafts I like Bay, Kemp, McLouth and Rios in that order but I think most people will put Kemp at the top. Kemp definitely has the higher ceiling but that comes with some risk. Your keepers are pretty solid so you could probably afford the risk.If Kemp has his breakout, he could replace Ichiro as a keeper for next year.

I agree completely with this

 

[shadyridr]

Kemp, Bay, Rios, McLouth

 

[Mr. Know-It-All]

Rios, Kemp,

Bay,

McClouth

 

[Nigel]

Not sure why you're keeping Volquez, but what's done is done.

It was either Volquez or Vasquez, and most around here thought Volquez was the pick. Thanks for all the responses - will go with Kemp if he isn't taken #1.

 

[cosjobs]

Not sure why you're keeping Volquez, but what's done is done.

It was either Volquez or Vasquez, and most around here thought Volquez was the pick. Thanks for all the responses - will go with Kemp if he isn't taken #1.

Kemp is good, but you are hoping he will do what Bay has already shown he can do.

 

[MAC_32]

My problems with Kemp and Bay are batting order related.

My problems with McLouth and Rios are supporting cast related.

They're all really close together, but I'd put them

McLouth

Kemp

Bay

Rios

 

[trogg78]

I like Kemp, McLouth, Bay then Rios.

 

[Nigel]

As it turns out last year's Kemp owner decided last minute to keep him, so he was off the board. The guy drafting first took Bay, so Iended up taking McLouth. Here's the rest of my team:

C - Martin

1B - Berkman

3B - Reynolds

CI - Cantu

2B - Kelly Johnson

SS - Michael Young

MI - Felipe Lopez

OF - Hamilton

OF - Ichiro

OF - McLouth

OF - Pence

OF - Daniel Murphy

DH - David Murphy

SP - Santana

SP - Volquez

SP - Bedard

SP - Baker

SP - Young

RP - Soria

RP - Gonzalez

RP - Motte

 

[MAC_32]

As it turns out last year's Kemp owner decided last minute to keep him, so he was off the board. The guy drafting first took Bay, so Iended up taking McLouth. Here's the rest of my team:C - Martin1B - Berkman3B - ReynoldsCI - Cantu2B - Kelly JohnsonSS - Michael YoungMI - Felipe LopezOF - HamiltonOF - IchiroOF - McLouthOF - PenceOF - Daniel MurphyDH - David MurphySP - SantanaSP - VolquezSP - BedardSP - BakerSP - YoungRP - SoriaRP - GonzalezRP - Motte

Great job for a first timer. Depending on who the best bats available are, I'd try to replace David Murphy. Baker's on the DL so that should free up another roster spot too, assuming you have a DL.

 

[Eephus]

You'll win the D. Murphy category hands down.

It's a decent team. SBs could be a problem and possibly AVG as well.

 

[Michael Brown]

Not sure why you're keeping Volquez, but what's done is done.

It was either Volquez or Vasquez, and most around here thought Volquez was the pick. Thanks for all the responses - will go with Kemp if he isn't taken #1.

Kemp is good, but you are hoping he will do what Bay has already shown he can do.

Or you're hoping he can go 30-40, which Bay won't come close to doing.

 

[MAC_32]

You'll win the D. Murphy category hands down.

It's a decent team. SBs could be a problem and possibly AVG as well.

I don't see how either of those are problems.

 

[Eephus]

You'll win the D. Murphy category hands down.

It's a decent team. SBs could be a problem and possibly AVG as well.

I don't see how either of those are problems.

SBs: Aside from Ichiro, he has a bunch of guys who could steal 15 which is fine if steal 20 but not so fine if they collectively regress back to 10. AVG is always the hardest category for me to project.

 

[pollardsvision]

with kemp and bay gone, i would've gone with rios over mclouth.

it's very possible that we've just seen rios' floor, which isn't bad at all. mclouth basically just did what rios did 2 years ago.

mclouth has an advantage in HR/RBI, but has the advantage in R, SB, and AVG (by a pretty good margin). if rios rebounds just a bit in the power dept and mclouth regresses just slightly, rios will be equal to or better in every category.

 

[MAC_32]

You'll win the D. Murphy category hands down.

It's a decent team. SBs could be a problem and possibly AVG as well.

I don't see how either of those are problems.

SBs: Aside from Ichiro, he has a bunch of guys who could steal 15 which is fine if steal 20 but not so fine if they collectively regress back to 10. AVG is always the hardest category for me to project.

Break it down by playerMartin - 15

Berkman - 10

Reynolds - 8

Cantu - 3

K Johnson - 10

M Young - 8

F Lopez - 11

Hamilton - 9

Ichiro - 35

McLouth - 25

Pence - 13

Dan Murphy - 11

Dav Murphy - 7

Total ~ 165

That should finish at worst middle of the pack and probably in the top third in most leagues.

 

[Michael Brown]

with kemp and bay gone, i would've gone with rios over mclouth.it's very possible that we've just seen rios' floor, which isn't bad at all. mclouth basically just did what rios did 2 years ago. mclouth has an advantage in HR/RBI, but has the advantage in R, SB, and AVG (by a pretty good margin). if rios rebounds just a bit in the power dept and mclouth regresses just slightly, rios will be equal to or better in every category.

I agree with all of this.

 

[guru_007]

with kemp and bay gone, i would've gone with rios over mclouth.it's very possible that we've just seen rios' floor, which isn't bad at all. mclouth basically just did what rios did 2 years ago. mclouth has an advantage in HR/RBI, but has the advantage in R, SB, and AVG (by a pretty good margin). if rios rebounds just a bit in the power dept and mclouth regresses just slightly, rios will be equal to or better in every category.

Rios is 28 - He has had 450 plate appearances for the past 5 years. That's a pretty good sample size.Rios rebound in power? He has hit 1 (yes, thats right 1 homer his 460 plate appearances his first year), 10, 17, 24, 15 home runs in his 5 seasons. What kind of "rebound" do you expect? He has never had more than 85 rbi's in a year. And while his career BA is .288 which is very good, his career OBP is just .338 (OP didn't specify if this was ba or obp league)Oh, and steals - 15,14,15,17, 32 - only last year did he have more than 17 steals...and generally sb totals decline with age.McClouth is 27, so similar age, but last year was his first year with over 400 plate appearances. He hit 26 homers, drove in 94 runs and stole 23 bases (22 the year before in 1/2 the plate appearances). He also scored 113 runs which is more than Rios has ever scored in 4 of his 5 professional years (he had 114 one year). Sure, McClouth only hit .276 last year, but generally, guys get a little better in average with more plate appearances under their belt....and McClouth's career OBP is exactly the same as Rios at .338 - so I see no distinct advantage here - certainly not a pretty good margin.I'd really like to hear why anyone would take the older player, with a more established track record of mediocrity

 

[pollardsvision]

with kemp and bay gone, i would've gone with rios over mclouth.it's very possible that we've just seen rios' floor, which isn't bad at all. mclouth basically just did what rios did 2 years ago. mclouth has an advantage in HR/RBI, but has the advantage in R, SB, and AVG (by a pretty good margin). if rios rebounds just a bit in the power dept and mclouth regresses just slightly, rios will be equal to or better in every category.

Rios is 28 - He has had 450 plate appearances for the past 5 years. That's a pretty good sample size.Rios rebound in power? He has hit 1 (yes, thats right 1 homer his 460 plate appearances his first year), 10, 17, 24, 15 home runs in his 5 seasons. What kind of "rebound" do you expect? He has never had more than 85 rbi's in a year. And while his career BA is .288 which is very good, his career OBP is just .338 (OP didn't specify if this was ba or obp league)Oh, and steals - 15,14,15,17, 32 - only last year did he have more than 17 steals...and generally sb totals decline with age.McClouth is 27, so similar age, but last year was his first year with over 400 plate appearances. He hit 26 homers, drove in 94 runs and stole 23 bases (22 the year before in 1/2 the plate appearances). He also scored 113 runs which is more than Rios has ever scored in 4 of his 5 professional years (he had 114 one year). Sure, McClouth only hit .276 last year, but generally, guys get a little better in average with more plate appearances under their belt....and McClouth's career OBP is exactly the same as Rios at .338 - so I see no distinct advantage here - certainly not a pretty good margin.I'd really like to hear why anyone would take the older player, with a more established track record of mediocrity

I'd hardly call Rios' track record mediocre. Mediocre in power? Sure, but that's not why you draft him.When I say "rebound", I mean get back to the low-20's in HRs. If he does that, he's a better fantasy player than McLouth, imo, unless McLouth significantly improves upon last year.I don't see McLouth improving upon last year. Prior to last year, McLouth had never hit more than 13 HRs in a single season. The last time he had over 500 ABs in a season ('05) he hit 10 HRs. It could be that he's really a power hitting young slugger who's just now found a way to stay healthy and hit bombs, or it could be that he played above his head in the power dept. last season. He wasn't getting a ton of ABs in those prev. years, but fewer than 15 HRs in all of them is a miniscule number. Imo, he's more likely to drop off in the power dept. than improve. That'll hurt his RBI total as well.I don't think Rios will ever match McLouth in the power dept (though he could), but their lifetime SLG%'s are virtually identical (.455-.460ish).McLouth's similar OBP would matter in an OBP league, but he is, in no way, comparable to Rios in the AVG. department. Rios has 3 consecutive seasons of .290+ at the MLB level. McLouth is a lifetime .261 hitter.Rios' SBs are sure to decline at some point, but so will McLouth's, as they have been doing steadily since '05, when he last stole 30.I don't think McLouth is a scrub. I just like Rios better. McLouth's only advantage over Rios (power) is something that his history suggests should be due for a regression.

 

[guru_007]

I'd hardly call Rios' track record mediocre. Mediocre in power? Sure, but that's not why you draft him.When I say "rebound", I mean get back to the low-20's in HRs. If he does that, he's a better fantasy player than McLouth, imo, unless McLouth significantly improves upon last year.I don't see McLouth improving upon last year. Prior to last year, McLouth had never hit more than 13 HRs in a single season. The last time he had over 500 ABs in a season ('05) he hit 10 HRs. It could be that he's really a power hitting young slugger who's just now found a way to stay healthy and hit bombs, or it could be that he played above his head in the power dept. last season. He wasn't getting a ton of ABs in those prev. years, but fewer than 15 HRs in all of them is a miniscule number. Imo, he's more likely to drop off in the power dept. than improve. That'll hurt his RBI total as well.McLouth's similar OBP would matter in an OBP league, but he is, in no way, comparable to Rios in the AVG. department. Rios has 3 consecutive seasons of .290+ at the MLB level. McLouth is a lifetime .261 hitter.I don't think McLouth is a scrub. I just like Rios better. McLouth's only advantage over Rios (power) is something that his history suggests should be due for a regression.

What wouldn't you call medicore about Rios's track record??His average year - .288 (good), 15 hr's , 77 rbi's 92 runs 21 sb's For an outfielder that is mediocre - thinking Torii Hunter here. Not bad, but no way near stud like.Why don't you see McClouth improving, but Rios "rebounding"? McClouth is younger. McClouth has never had a full season of major league ab's. Rios has had 5 seasons with which to study. I can't see why you think McClouth is going to regress with his power - you are bringing up a 2005 season where McClouth was 22 years old for a comparison of his power numbers. Guys get stronger with age.I do think Rios is a better average hitter, but I think McClouth is better in all 4 other categories and I think McClouth's power will improve this year, 30 hr's is not at all out of the question.To be honest, I don't like either guy, I think they're both overrated fantasy wise. The only reason McLouth gets no love is he plays on the Pirates.