Ray Rice, underrated? (1 Viewer)

[Thomsen]

Look at his touches last year, after his bye week in week 7 he averaged 5 touches more than before the bye. From 17.6 to 22.6, that's a big ddifference. Most people have him ranked fourth, but look at his situation. He is in a better offense, Boldin is a great blocker as well. Harbaugh has said his role won't change much so he will still catch 65-80 balls. McGahee is still there, but look he won't be as good in the red zone again this year, simple regression to the mean. Rice is in impeccable shape and should score 3-4 TDs more than last year. He's not an injury risk, which his touchdown vulture is. He's only 23 and is only getting better.

 

[rizzler]

I still dont get how he is underrated.

He will perform like a top 10 player and will be drafted as such

 

[omally]

McGahee is still there, but look he won't be as good in the red zone again this year, simple regression to the mean. Rice is in impeccable shape and should score 3-4 TDs more than last year. He's not an injury risk, which his touchdown vulture is. He's only 23 and is only getting better.

McGahee is in great shape this year too, so I don't see why he won't be as good in the red zone this year.All RB's are an injury risk whether they are GL backs or not. Being ranked #4 in most preseason rankings is not underrated.

 

[Drink G2]

Underrated? Probably not, safe bet to perform around his draft spot or better? Yes

 

[Tango]

Look at his touches last year, after his bye week in week 7 he averaged 5 touches more than before the bye. From 17.6 to 22.6, that's a big difference. Most people have him ranked fourth, but look at his situation. He is in a better offense, Boldin is a great blocker as well. Harbaugh has said his role won't change much so he will still catch 65-80 balls. McGahee is still there, but look he won't be as good in the red zone again this year, simple regression to the mean. Rice is in impeccable shape and should score 3-4 TDs more than last year. He's not an injury risk, which his touchdown vulture is. He's only 23 and is only getting better.

He is universally ranked as a Top 5 RB in yardage leagues; that means you *should* be able to make a good case for him to be the #1 or #2, etc.. It's just that CJ/AP, etc.'s cases are just a bit better. So if you indulge me and assume that only the Top 5 RBs have a chance to be #1; that would mean that if the Top 5 were equal they'd all have a 20% chance of being #1. The rankings suggest that Rice might have a 15% chance of being #1 in that scenario. That's perfectly acceptable odds for the case you made above. Soooo....I think your description of how good he is is fine; but there's no reason to believe he is underrated.

 

[Happy Ragnarok]

I think there's something to what you're saying.

But I also think most sources are looking at his touches and the way he was used last year and assuming that he's going to be right there to lead the league in receptions for a RB. I'm seeing #'s like 80...85...90.

This is a team that spent a pretty penny in free agency to bring in a new, bigtime #1 WR, and added another receiver who many feel will challenge for #2 before too long.

The top 3 wideouts had what, 130 receptions last year? The new #1 guy has had seasons over 100 himself.

I like rice, but he IS still sharing some of the workload in running the ball. And I think he's going to see a lot fewer dumpoffs this year too.

 

[Touchdown Syndrome]

I don't think he's underrated either as a consensus top 4 or 5 overall player.

Unless you think he's the lock #1 player and should be drafted as such.

 

[Thomsen]

To clarify, I think he should be in the mix for the no. 1 draft spot.

 

[Touchdown Syndrome]

To clarify, I think he should be in the mix for the no. 1 draft spot.

In a PPR league I actually do believe he's in the mix for #1.I'm just a little uncomfortable with a player who's only done it once, so I'd be more likely to select CJ2K or MJD there.

 

[NoCheese]

Look at his touches last year, after his bye week in week 7 he averaged 5 touches more than before the bye. From 17.6 to 22.6, that's a big ddifference. Most people have him ranked fourth, but look at his situation. He is in a better offense, Boldin is a great blocker as well. Harbaugh has said his role won't change much so he will still catch 65-80 balls. McGahee is still there, but look he won't be as good in the red zone again this year, simple regression to the mean. Rice is in impeccable shape and should score 3-4 TDs more than last year. He's not an injury risk, which his touchdown vulture is. He's only 23 and is only getting better.

While I can appreciate your enthusiasm for Rice and you do point out some interesting data, I just can't accept that he's not an injury risk. With his running style, the amount of touches he has, and the fact that he's smaller than most NFL running backs, I think that claim is unfounded. He may not be as much of an injury risk as McGahee. I'll give you that.As far as McGahee not being as good in the redzone this year, has Harbaugh said anything to indicate Rice would get the touches McGahee used to receive or is there reason to believe McGahee wont be as effective? McGahee was very successful in short yardage last year, and I can see the Ravens wanting to preserve the wear and tear on Rice by giving McGahee a good chunk of carries.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

To clarify, I think he should be in the mix for the no. 1 draft spot.

He's not underrated. He's drafted in the top 4 pretty much exclusively. Even if he goes 4 overall and he finishes NO. 1, the absolute best he can outperform his draft spot is 3 spots. Just 3 spots, that is hardly underrated. If Ray Rice has the year everyone is expecting, then he will meet the criteria for where he is currently being drafted, that's pretty much basically it.When I think of underrated players, I'm thinking of guys who can outperform their ADP by at least a round, maybe 2 or 3. A guy like Ray Rice isn't close to being underrated, he's a top 4 pick and in ADP leagues top 3.

 

[LittlePhatty]

To clarify, I think he should be in the mix for the no. 1 draft spot.

The Top 4 all have a shot at being the #1 RB. Go with your gut instinct. I see them as interchangeable and therefore cannot be rated any higher. If the #1 pick in our league chose MJD or Rice, I would not fault them. I would applaud them for not being an ADP robot.

 

[[icon]]

I'm just a little uncomfortable with a player who's only done it once, so I'd be more likely to select CJ2K or MJD there.

I'm as big a CJ fan as there is on here but he's not exactly been a top guy for more than one year either. (2008 : RB12)

 

[Zoomanji]

I'm not so sure about that. I think at the end of it all he and MJD will be 1 and 2 while AP and CJ aren't.

that said I have noticed that some well know FF websites have Rice at #1 Overall for some scoring systems (such as WCOFF scoring)

 

[Tango]

As far as McGahee not being as good in the redzone this year, has Harbaugh said anything to indicate Rice would get the touches McGahee used to receive or is there reason to believe McGahee wont be as effective? McGahee was very successful in short yardage last year, and I can see the Ravens wanting to preserve the wear and tear on Rice by giving McGahee a good chunk of carries.

McGahee on a standalone basis is riskier than last year because of McClain's lobbying to get more carries. This manifested itself in week 1 of the preseason where McClain was in on GL sets, but McGahee came back last week and found himself in that GL position...so the jury is out but clearly leaning to McGahee. The fact that it is a question at all is the key issue. Moreover, McGahee could be traded as has been rumored and that is a roll of the dice as to whether that will increase his value or not.For the Rice owner (and I have been one since I got him in my auction dynasty league as a rookie), I suggest going after McClain as Rice's back-up NOT McGahee under the assumption that; -McClain will become the GL back in a Rice-injury scenario-McClain has no trade risk-McClain can likely be had in the last round of the draft

 

[Papa Georgio]

I own Rice in a fairly TD heavy, Non-ppr league. Over the last 5 games last year he was like the 25th ranked RB in my league. So I am worried about that. In ppr I think he is gold, but I don't think he will get more touches this year and scoring long TD's is such a hard thing to factor so for me I think he is a bit over-rated.

Heavy yardage/ppr - top 5

TD heavy/non-ppr - top 10

 

[jude]

Look at his touches last year, after his bye week in week 7 he averaged 5 touches more than before the bye. From 17.6 to 22.6, that's a big ddifference. Most people have him ranked fourth, but look at his situation. He is in a better offense, Boldin is a great blocker as well. Harbaugh has said his role won't change much so he will still catch 65-80 balls. McGahee is still there, but look he won't be as good in the red zone again this year, simple regression to the mean. Rice is in impeccable shape and should score 3-4 TDs more than last year. He's not an injury risk, which his touchdown vulture is. He's only 23 and is only getting better.

While I can appreciate your enthusiasm for Rice and you do point out some interesting data, I just can't accept that he's not an injury risk. With his running style, the amount of touches he has, and the fact that he's smaller than most NFL running backs, I think that claim is unfounded. He may not be as much of an injury risk as McGahee. I'll give you that.As far as McGahee not being as good in the redzone this year, has Harbaugh said anything to indicate Rice would get the touches McGahee used to receive or is there reason to believe McGahee wont be as effective? McGahee was very successful in short yardage last year, and I can see the Ravens wanting to preserve the wear and tear on Rice by giving McGahee a good chunk of carries.

if what you say is true in the first paragraph, then every player in the league is an injury risk. he isnt smaller than most rb's either.

 

[Thomsen]

Bigger RBs are a bigger injury risk. They take more direct hits, and have difficulty bouncing off hits. Rice is difficult to hit hard, as he is more shifty and braces for impact quicker than a bigger back would. In PPR Rice should be in the running for the no. 1 draft spot.

 

[LittlePhatty]

Rice should be in the running for the no. 1 draft spot.

That's the third time you've said that in this thread.I think your draft is coming up this weekend where you have the #3 spot and you really want either CJ or AP.

 

[Thomsen]

 

[The Jerk]

I own Rice in a fairly TD heavy, Non-ppr league. Over the last 5 games last year he was like the 25th ranked RB in my league. So I am worried about that. In ppr I think he is gold, but I don't think he will get more touches this year and scoring long TD's is such a hard thing to factor so for me I think he is a bit over-rated. Heavy yardage/ppr - top 5TD heavy/non-ppr - top 10

In a TD heavy league, I would slot Rice as the #6 RB, after CJ, AP, Turner, Gore, MJD. I've seen nothing to indicate that Rice will get significantly more GL work than last season. Sure, it could happen, but it's just a guess at this point. If someone wants to draft on the guess, that's fine. It could work. But based on the information we have, it's status quo at the GL for Rice, which will make it hard to get past 10-11 TDs.In standard/PPR leagues, Rice is clearly higher.

 

[LionSlappy]

I need to choose between he and MJD and I am having a very difficult time with this!!!!

 

[az_prof]

I think he is great and have been a huge Ray Ray fan from the start, but I don't see how he is underrated unless you think he is likely to be the top fantasy player this year. I don't see that as likely at all because I see McGahee getting a fair number of goal line touches and late game/leading touches to try and save Rice from pounding. Plus, the addition of Boldin will make Rice less necessary as the checkdown receiver. He will be a top 10 RB but the odds of him cracking the top 3 this season seem small.

 

[stubby]

I'm drafting in the 3 slot in my 0.5 PPR league, and I know that Chris Johnson and ADP will go either 1/2 or 2/1....so I was focusing on MJD earlier in the season. Now, I'm starting to lean towards Rice, as I'm worried that Jacksonville might even be worse than last year, combined with the favorable playoff schedule that Rice has over MJD. Those 2 concern me more than the McGahee touches that are taken away from Rice.

Now, if something dramatically changes and CJ or ADP are there for me to draft at the #3 slot, I don't think I would take Rice or MJD over either of them, even though Draft Dominator tells me the top four picks "should" be CJ,MJD, Rice, then ADP....so I guess I don't like him as much as OP.

 

[the spanker]

I'm drafting in the 3 slot in my 0.5 PPR league, and I know that Chris Johnson and ADP will go either 1/2 or 2/1....so I was focusing on MJD earlier in the season. Now, I'm starting to lean towards Rice, as I'm worried that Jacksonville might even be worse than last year, combined with the favorable playoff schedule that Rice has over MJD. Those 2 concern me more than the McGahee touches that are taken away from Rice.Now, if something dramatically changes and CJ or ADP are there for me to draft at the #3 slot, I don't think I would take Rice or MJD over either of them, even though Draft Dominator tells me the top four picks "should" be CJ,MJD, Rice, then ADP....so I guess I don't like him as much as OP.

1.) Avoid getting caught up in schedule analysis. Too much of schedule breakdowns and predictions are based on last year, and too much changes in the NFL from year to year. Looking at Fantasy playoff schedules in August is often a useless exercise. Make your decisions based on who is the better player and filling areas of need in your draft, not on who someone faces deep into November and December.2.) Logic dictates Jones-Drew is more proven and scores more often, and should clearly be taken over Rice. Especially with McGahee in town who has vultured TDs in the past and now you have the addition of Boldin with Flacco in his 3rd year.I wouldn't get cute here, but if you feel so strongly about it then go for it.

 

[LionSlappy]

I'm drafting in the 3 slot in my 0.5 PPR league, and I know that Chris Johnson and ADP will go either 1/2 or 2/1....so I was focusing on MJD earlier in the season. Now, I'm starting to lean towards Rice, as I'm worried that Jacksonville might even be worse than last year, combined with the favorable playoff schedule that Rice has over MJD. Those 2 concern me more than the McGahee touches that are taken away from Rice.Now, if something dramatically changes and CJ or ADP are there for me to draft at the #3 slot, I don't think I would take Rice or MJD over either of them, even though Draft Dominator tells me the top four picks "should" be CJ,MJD, Rice, then ADP....so I guess I don't like him as much as OP.

1.) Avoid getting caught up in schedule analysis. Too much of schedule breakdowns and predictions are based on last year, and too much changes in the NFL from year to year. Looking at Fantasy playoff schedules in August is often a useless exercise. Make your decisions based on who is the better player and filling areas of need in your draft, not on who someone faces deep into November and December.2.) Logic dictates Jones-Drew is more proven and scores more often, and should clearly be taken over Rice. Especially with McGahee in town who has vultured TDs in the past and now you have the addition of Boldin with Flacco in his 3rd year.I wouldn't get cute here, but if you feel so strongly about it then go for it.

As previously posted, I also have the 3rd overall selection in a slow draft, and I am hotly debating the two. I do not at all think it is getting too "cute" drafting Rice over MJD. If McGahee gets traded it may be a slam dunk. As far as the schedule goes, you are right for the most part, especially when both have very similar SOSs. SOS for weeks 1-16 show MJD to have the 8th best sched and Rice the 14th best. Weeks 14-16 show MJD to have the 11th and Rice the 4th best. But in other cases, such as the NFC and AFC west this year, you have to take it into account between similar players. Teams from both divisions have very patsy schedules.

 

[the spanker]

I'm drafting in the 3 slot in my 0.5 PPR league, and I know that Chris Johnson and ADP will go either 1/2 or 2/1....so I was focusing on MJD earlier in the season. Now, I'm starting to lean towards Rice, as I'm worried that Jacksonville might even be worse than last year, combined with the favorable playoff schedule that Rice has over MJD. Those 2 concern me more than the McGahee touches that are taken away from Rice.Now, if something dramatically changes and CJ or ADP are there for me to draft at the #3 slot, I don't think I would take Rice or MJD over either of them, even though Draft Dominator tells me the top four picks "should" be CJ,MJD, Rice, then ADP....so I guess I don't like him as much as OP.

1.) Avoid getting caught up in schedule analysis. Too much of schedule breakdowns and predictions are based on last year, and too much changes in the NFL from year to year. Looking at Fantasy playoff schedules in August is often a useless exercise. Make your decisions based on who is the better player and filling areas of need in your draft, not on who someone faces deep into November and December.2.) Logic dictates Jones-Drew is more proven and scores more often, and should clearly be taken over Rice. Especially with McGahee in town who has vultured TDs in the past and now you have the addition of Boldin with Flacco in his 3rd year.I wouldn't get cute here, but if you feel so strongly about it then go for it.

As previously posted, I also have the 3rd overall selection in a slow draft, and I am hotly debating the two. I do not at all think it is getting too "cute" drafting Rice over MJD. If McGahee gets traded it may be a slam dunk. As far as the schedule goes, you are right for the most part, especially when both have very similar SOSs. SOS for weeks 1-16 show MJD to have the 8th best sched and Rice the 14th best. Weeks 14-16 show MJD to have the 11th and Rice the 4th best. But in other cases, such as the NFC and AFC west this year, you have to take it into account between similar players. Teams from both divisions have very patsy schedules.

I have the # 3 pick this year and my draft is on Saturday. Personally I think I would be getting too cute and overthinking things if I take Rice over MJD as it stands today. Sorry, the word cute slipped into my post from my own thoughts because I've debated the same issue of who to take.I don't take too much stock in schedule analysis but do agree with you about considering the impact of RBs that play the AFC and NFC west this year. Gore has a wonderful schedule if you take that into account but we both agree we can't take him that high because he wasn't mentioned in our conversation. If and I do mean IF McGahee was traded before my draft I would take Rice without a 2nd thought if I could. Of course one of the guys drafting ahead of you or me might change their pick as a result of a McGahee trade and take Rice at #1 or #2.

 

[CaptainHook]

definitely. i have him very confidently at #2.

 

[LionSlappy]

I'm drafting in the 3 slot in my 0.5 PPR league, and I know that Chris Johnson and ADP will go either 1/2 or 2/1....so I was focusing on MJD earlier in the season. Now, I'm starting to lean towards Rice, as I'm worried that Jacksonville might even be worse than last year, combined with the favorable playoff schedule that Rice has over MJD. Those 2 concern me more than the McGahee touches that are taken away from Rice.Now, if something dramatically changes and CJ or ADP are there for me to draft at the #3 slot, I don't think I would take Rice or MJD over either of them, even though Draft Dominator tells me the top four picks "should" be CJ,MJD, Rice, then ADP....so I guess I don't like him as much as OP.

1.) Avoid getting caught up in schedule analysis. Too much of schedule breakdowns and predictions are based on last year, and too much changes in the NFL from year to year. Looking at Fantasy playoff schedules in August is often a useless exercise. Make your decisions based on who is the better player and filling areas of need in your draft, not on who someone faces deep into November and December.2.) Logic dictates Jones-Drew is more proven and scores more often, and should clearly be taken over Rice. Especially with McGahee in town who has vultured TDs in the past and now you have the addition of Boldin with Flacco in his 3rd year.I wouldn't get cute here, but if you feel so strongly about it then go for it.

As previously posted, I also have the 3rd overall selection in a slow draft, and I am hotly debating the two. I do not at all think it is getting too "cute" drafting Rice over MJD. If McGahee gets traded it may be a slam dunk. As far as the schedule goes, you are right for the most part, especially when both have very similar SOSs. SOS for weeks 1-16 show MJD to have the 8th best sched and Rice the 14th best. Weeks 14-16 show MJD to have the 11th and Rice the 4th best. But in other cases, such as the NFC and AFC west this year, you have to take it into account between similar players. Teams from both divisions have very patsy schedules.

I have the # 3 pick this year and my draft is on Saturday. Personally I think I would be getting too cute and overthinking things if I take Rice over MJD as it stands today. Sorry, the word cute slipped into my post from my own thoughts because I've debated the same issue of who to take.I don't take too much stock in schedule analysis but do agree with you about considering the impact of RBs that play the AFC and NFC west this year. Gore has a wonderful schedule if you take that into account but we both agree we can't take him that high because he wasn't mentioned in our conversation. If and I do mean IF McGahee was traded before my draft I would take Rice without a 2nd thought if I could. Of course one of the guys drafting ahead of you or me might change their pick as a result of a McGahee trade and take Rice at #1 or #2.

Right, I only meant sched matters if you are debating between two equal players AND one has glaring advantages in their schedule. That is one reason why Gore is nearly a conscensus #5 at RB this year.And if McGahee gets traded, and I have the #3 pick and this caused CJ or AP to fall to me...thank you ozzy!!

 

[Fantaholic]

It's sort of arbitrary to discuss whether or not he is over or under valued without providing a scoring system. Ray Rice is a perfect example of someone that could move up or down significantly based on the league, ppr, yardage, TD heavy, etc

In a heavy TD, non-ppr, etc = Over-valued

PPR leagues, with combined rush/rec yardage, etc = Under-valued

 

[the spanker]

It's sort of arbitrary to discuss whether or not he is over or under valued without providing a scoring system. Ray Rice is a perfect example of someone that could move up or down significantly based on the league, ppr, yardage, TD heavy, etcIn a heavy TD, non-ppr, etc = Over-valuedPPR leagues, with combined rush/rec yardage, etc = Under-valued

So in a PPR league that awards 1pt every 10 yds rush/receiving he's undervalued considering the addition of Boldin and McGahee being used at the GL in comparison to the other 3RBs who have no GL vulture and no addition of a #1 WR right to their teams right? Or did I misunderstand rou somehow?

 

[cobalt_27]

To clarify, I think he should be in the mix for the no. 1 draft spot.

He's not underrated. He's drafted in the top 4 pretty much exclusively. Even if he goes 4 overall and he finishes NO. 1, the absolute best he can outperform his draft spot is 3 spots. Just 3 spots, that is hardly underrated. If Ray Rice has the year everyone is expecting, then he will meet the criteria for where he is currently being drafted, that's pretty much basically it.When I think of underrated players, I'm thinking of guys who can outperform their ADP by at least a round, maybe 2 or 3. A guy like Ray Rice isn't close to being underrated, he's a top 4 pick and in ADP leagues top 3.

The difference between RB1 vs RB4 >>>>>>>>>>>>RB11 vs RB14. Saying it's "just 3 spots" suggests that your scale of measurement might need some fine tuning.

 

[footballnerd]

To clarify, I think he should be in the mix for the no. 1 draft spot.

He's not underrated. He's drafted in the top 4 pretty much exclusively. Even if he goes 4 overall and he finishes NO. 1, the absolute best he can outperform his draft spot is 3 spots. Just 3 spots, that is hardly underrated. If Ray Rice has the year everyone is expecting, then he will meet the criteria for where he is currently being drafted, that's pretty much basically it.When I think of underrated players, I'm thinking of guys who can outperform their ADP by at least a round, maybe 2 or 3. A guy like Ray Rice isn't close to being underrated, he's a top 4 pick and in ADP leagues top 3.

The difference between RB1 vs RB4 >>>>>>>>>>>>RB11 vs RB14. Saying it's "just 3 spots" suggests that your scale of measurement might need some fine tuning.

What's your projections for the top 4 picks.Think we're prob talking a difference of 10 or 15 fantasy points here.....

 

[cobalt_27]

To clarify, I think he should be in the mix for the no. 1 draft spot.

He's not underrated. He's drafted in the top 4 pretty much exclusively. Even if he goes 4 overall and he finishes NO. 1, the absolute best he can outperform his draft spot is 3 spots. Just 3 spots, that is hardly underrated. If Ray Rice has the year everyone is expecting, then he will meet the criteria for where he is currently being drafted, that's pretty much basically it.When I think of underrated players, I'm thinking of guys who can outperform their ADP by at least a round, maybe 2 or 3. A guy like Ray Rice isn't close to being underrated, he's a top 4 pick and in ADP leagues top 3.

The difference between RB1 vs RB4 >>>>>>>>>>>>RB11 vs RB14. Saying it's "just 3 spots" suggests that your scale of measurement might need some fine tuning.

What's your projections for the top 4 picks.Think we're prob talking a difference of 10 or 15 fantasy points here.....

Carry that out over an entire lineup, and that logic will cost you about 100 points or so. Probably greater. Take the current FBG ranks are 1. CJ, 2.RR, 3. Mathews, 4. Benson. If we use the projections of Dodds/Wood/Henry/Tremblay, the difference is more on the order of 25 or 26 points between the 1-4 tier and the 11-14 tier:1. 281 CJ4. 243 Rice (-38)...11. 193 Mathews14. 181 Benson (-12)And, this is under the FBG scoring system, which is typically suppressed compared to most variations out there. At any rate, the 3 spots between {CJ and Rice} are greater than {Mathews and Benson} who are greater than {Ronnie Brown and Bradshaw} and so on and so on.

 

[HoTnickZ]

Non ppr I went Rice over MJD at 3, more instinctual than anything. We'll see if it pays off.