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I don't think he needs that many more touches to pass up Peterson. Just a few more goalline looks.I also don't think Foster repeats the numbers he saw last year.And he already passed Rice...its Rice who needs more touches to pass up Charles right now. He should get that if McGahee does not resign for less and they don't have plans for someone else to vulture goalline.Id put the two about dead even.
A fair argument. With McGahee out of the picture how many TDs do you see Rice scoring?I have his range at 9-18 Total TDs.
Are you already predicting Gore will go down with an injury in 2011? I think Gore will lose touches this year, but not due to injury. It will be because the rookie Hunter gets those touches. And because Hunter will take some of the load off of him, Gore will stay healthy.But back to Rice. I happen to believe Rice will have a fantastic year. For all of the reasons already mentioned, ie: schedule, McGahee moving on, etc. But I don't know if I'm willing to say he will be the #1 overall back at the end of the year. I can definitely see Rice top 3-5 though. Even still, the potential is there for him to pull it off.
Don't agree with you. I agree with T&T. Charles got 1900 all purpose yards last year on only 275 touches. All you need is Charles to get to about 320 to likely put him over 2000 yards, and that's reducing his YPC to 5.5, which is 1/2 of a yard lower than his career average. That is an increase of only 3 touches a game. 3 extra touches a game isn't going to significantly increase Charles' chance of getting hurt. The guy can flat out take it to the house anytime he touches the ball. You can easily have T Jones or some other back take the short yardage situations and keep Charles fresh. Whether Charles can be the #1 back will be based on TDs, just like Ray Rice.
will probably be adjusted after free agency is over....(McGahee, McClain, status, etc)Small range you got there.
I'm not sure how that's relevant to my point.
Sure...but a 9 TD gap there is not really going out on any limb at this point.will probably be adjusted after free agency is over....(McGahee, McClain, status, etc)Small range you got there.
Good point, we should probably have a lockout on football discussions until after the FA period. Hell, maybe we should wait until they play the first four games or so, we should have a better idea of which defenses are for real by then. Or you could throw a projected in my sentence before toughest and take it for what it is, best educated guess in late July pre-FA period based off last years and historical defensive trends.how do you figure the ppg for rbs allowed is more for 2011 then 2010... how do you figure what's a hard schedule anyway??? inform me on that as defenses change every year, and we haven't even had FA period yet
Pretty wide range there. What do you think the median is of Rice's TDs? I bet that range will be heavily skewed to the left.......I would estimate it this way.<9 TDs - 20%9-11 TDs - 55%12-14 TDs - 20%15+ TDs - 5%The median of this distribution is about 10 TDs, which IMO is an appropriate projection for Rice. Taking the halfway point of your range of 13-14 TDs is way too optimistic, even with McGahee likely leaving.
Now we're having intelligent discussion. Good post.Using your method(which is similar to mine) I have roughly the following:<9 TDs - 20%9-11 TDs - 25%12-14 TDs - 30%15+ TDs - 25%
9 is a pretty high floor, sparky
correctwill probably be adjusted after free agency is over....(McGahee, McClain, status, etc)Small range you got there.
So basically a lot needs to happen....too much risk to project him #1 overall.
LHUCKS I'm guessing at your reasoning here, but I believe it is that Rice has a cakewalk schedule - games against such juggernaut run defenses like Tenn, Cle,Cin, Hou, Jax,Az,Sea, Ind..he's going to win a lot of fantasy championships because of the Ravens' schedule from week 13 on:BrownsColtsChargersBrownsBengalsaside from the Chargers game, this is going to be a great final 5 weeks to the 2011 season for Rice..McGahee might be gone and if he is, Rice stands to take on a much bigger role in Cameron's offense.
while giving Charles more touches seems like a no brainer....I am not sure KC will have the luxary this year of that happening....I have a feeling this is the year KC takes the "three steps back".....I see them being behind quite a bit and having to play catch up....making Cassel beat them....if I am game planning against KC, my goal is to make Charles a non factor....Cassel and Bowe benefited greatly from a cake schedule.....they will be forced by the higher quality defenses KC plays this year to beat them....for those that want to discount the defenses KC has to play against right now and fall back on the "we don't know what those defenses are going to look like right now"...go for it, but if you look at what is probably going to shake down for them against the teams they play, it looks a little troublesome.....you want to think give your best player the ball against the best teams is the way to go, but I see a tough road ahead for Charles this year.....and again especially when you need him the most...weeks 11-15...and it's not about questioning Charles talent, it is more about how those games are likely to unfold....
signed,A lot? Just a little extra work, that's it. It's not like I am assuming the same YPC and an increase in carries.Now I am not projecting Charles to be #1 overall, but I am just saying that he's capable of it if he gets 20 touches a game. In fact, I don't think anyone is really projecting Charles at #1 overall.....most have him in the 3-6 range, which is appropriate.
That is a big part of it. Additionally, I have his injury risk projected very low...the lowest of all the top backs actually.High floor with high ceiling.
Oh, okay. Of course it's possible...I just think it's less likely than Rice/Peterson/Foster.I have Charles ranked #5 in ppr redrafts due to his PPG upside.
I disagree its his floor...but the large gap is what I was
at chief.And I think you are overly optimistic in your percentages you responded to illini...I think his numbers were much better and more realistic.Which essentially means that you aren't very confident of your baseline projection. That's a wide variance, essentially assuming a uniform distribution (about equal probability for each TD scenario). 45% of the time you think Rice will score 8 or less TDs OR 15 or more TDs.I am much more confident of my baseline projection of 10 TDs, since I have over half my scearios at 10 TDs, plus or minus 1 TD.Now I agree with you that Rice could score 15 TDs without McGahee in town and BAL fairly easy schedule, but it's going to take an awful lot to go Rice's way for that to occur.....much less than a 25% probability.
I understand that I am higher than Rice than most shark poolers, which is why I started the thread. I rarely start threads about players where I agree with status quo.
This is a function of how I quantify risks and use that number to project ranges. Most of my top RBs have similar ranges for what it's worth, so the range is not unique to Ray Rice. As you go down the rankings the ranges obviously become smaller(on average).I probably shouldn't have posted the range because it confuses/misleads people...I project differently than almost everyone.
Exactly so we all know Ray Rice won't be number 1 overall... If Lhucks is predicting it
I remember some of the great ones 
Me either, and your point about having to have substantially more to have more points then Rice/AP... He had more then Rice and AP.. In PPR charles had 284 Ap 277 Rice 276... that is with having 100 less touches then RICE Ap had 40 more touches.... saying that a back that had 1900 yards from scrimmage 45 catches and 8 tds with 275 touches, and being used in a horrible time share and having goalline taken away for no reason has no chance of being number 1 is crazy and shouldn't be trusted... So what we learned today is that Charles had more points in ppr and had 100 less touches. Do you think JC will only get half of the carries this year??? I doubt itThis makes no sense to me!Whats is your point about Gore?
Picking and choosing sample sizes, something a Rice owner doesnt have to do. In 09 when he first started getting into the chiefs system he put up crap numbers against any team someone would consider to have a half decent defense, conversely he put up huge numbers against teams with terrible defense. The trend would have continued in 2010 if the chiefs played a single team with a decent defense.Charles is a stud, but people need to temper their expectations, hes not gonna put up 260 yds a game unless its the broncos.
PPR, yesNon PPR, Foster
How is that a small sample size I just told you he was top 4 back out of 16 games last year... And this thing about charles not playing tough rush defense what about the steelers in 09 Ravens in 2010.. Charles can get his against any run d and I don't think that argument you put up has any validity shortbow.
You dont say that in your header, more proof your just typing to read your own words.
I will agree to a certain extent that it is tough to predict how good some defenses will be from year to year....but I think you also have to agree that others are a little easier...(weeks 11-15 for KC being 5 of them)...I like Rice over Charles this year not because I think Rice is more talented, but I think you will see some huge steps backward overall in KC's offensive production this year, which unfortunately includes Charles....I think some people are putting the blinders on when it comes to the offensive production in KC and are thinking it's going to be the same or better than last year...I have them winning 6 games next year and playing from behind a ton potentially limiting Charles production as teams will force Cassel to beat them....Most stud backs have their big games against sub par defense... Look at AP, he struggled vs alot of tough defenses, Sf to mention one and the Giants... But he had 200 and 3 tds against Cleveland.... Every runningback plays weak matchups and tough matchups, we don't even know what a tough schedule is, with all the Free agents and rookies and just pure Unknown factor, and the fact that the defenses change so much over the years, its hard to even argue that charles has a tougher schedule then he did in 09 or 10.... You have no back bone to stand on here Lhucks or Shortbow. NONE
This is my point exactly, his numbers are inflated, I have no doubt he is elite.Most stud backs have their big games against sub par defense... Look at AP, he struggled vs alot of tough defenses, Sf to mention one and the Giants... But he had 200 and 3 tds against Cleveland.... Every runningback plays weak matchups and tough matchups, we don't even know what a tough schedule is, with all the Free agents and rookies and just pure Unknown factor, and the fact that the defenses change so much over the years, its hard to even argue that charles has a tougher schedule then he did in 09 or 10.... You have no back bone to stand on here Lhucks or Shortbow. NONE
This type of post is where our mods should end most 'hucks threads.'LHUCKS said:
I remember it I didnt save it.They are comparable in softness, im expecting better numbers from Rice being out of a time share. My only hold up on Rice is McClain, he is imo with the exeception of Hillis(lol) the best full back in the NFL. That being said, I think his run blocking is gonna help Rice more than his carries will hurt him.
2010T22. Chiefs 125-131 .4881. vs San Diego2. @ Cleveland3. vs San Francisco4. BYE5. @ Indianapolis6. @ Houston7. vs Jacksonville8. vs Buffalo9. @ Oakland10. @ Denver11. vs Arizona12. @ Seattle13. vs Denver14. @ San Diego15. @ St. Louis16. vs Tennessee17. vs Oakland201131. Baltimore Ravens* 117-139-0 .4571. vs Pittsburgh2. @ Tennessee3. @ St. Louis4. vs New York Jets5. BYE6. vs Houston7. @ Jacksonville8. vs Arizona9. @ Pittsburgh10. @ Seattle11. vs Cincinnati12. vs San Francisco13. @ Cleveland 14. vs Indianapolis15. @ San Diego16. vs Cleveland17. @ CincinnatiAnother great example where the thread should be shut down, or at a minimum the poster in question reprimanded.'LHUCKS said:
He isn't the hero we deserve, he is the hero we need. The Anti-Hype train. Light in the darkness, all that business.
I've been fighting this battle for years (including a lengthy quantitative post on the topic years back), but prior year Strength of Schedule has very little predictive power for year N+1. So I'm not sure how this is relevant.
I am a little confused with this statement.You're saying that the top RBs have similar ranges (which is wide) but the ranges get smaller as you go down the rankings. I would think the reverse is true. You're taking Foster, or Rice or ADP in the top 5 because you know that they will get their carries, their receptions, their TDs.....and they're talented to have nice yards per carry averages.Let's extend your analysis a little further for Ray Rice.....you project his TD range at 9-18. What is Rice's range for number of carries? YPC? Receptions? Here I think Rice's numbers are going to be pretty narrow. I can't see Rice carrying the ball more than 310 times, but I can't see him getting less than 275. I am very confident that Rice will catch 55-70 passes. So based on these ranges, Rice is very likely to generate 1650-1950 all purpose yards. That's pretty tight range if you ask me....say that you think Rice's baseline yardage will be 1800....a 1650-1950 accounts to his baseline + or - about 8%....that's tight.....only Rice's TD totals could be volatile, but TDs are generally a volatile stat for most players. In other words, Rice is going to produce for you, which is why he's a top 5 pick. As you go down the list, I would expect the ranges could be very wide (not always). Let's take an example.....Ryan Mathews. Opinions on Mathews are quite varied in the Spotlight. What is his range of carries? Could be as high as 290, could be as low as 190. Receptions? Could be 45, could be 20. TDs? Could be 12, could be 5. It all depends on how SD uses Mathews and Tolbert, and if Sproles leaves SD, and we don't know how it's going to shake out in SD. So Mathews could be a top 10 RB or he could be a complete bust. His yardage production could range from 1000 to 1600. Say your yardage baseline for Mathews is 1300. His production has a distribution of baseline + or - 23%. And the variance gets even higher when factoring in a difference between 12 and 5 TDs.So I don't quite follow your post. I can see plenty of situations where variances in RB production could be very high due to the fact that we don't know how some of these RBBC situations are going to pan out.'LHUCKS said:
I remember reading it, thinking it was good and seeing this thread reminded me of it. Wanted to read it again.
part of it might be that if you are looking at it from a redraft head to haed perspective....JC has one of the worse possible schedules ever week 11-15 when most are trying to get in the playoffs and when the playoffs actually start....I agree it is sometimes difficult to assess defenses from year to year, but the five defenses he faces in those weeks may be the exception more than the rule when it comes to dismissing SOS....those defenses are regarded as some of the elite ones and honestly that really won't change much between now and the start of the season....if anything they may get tougher.....if you don't think that is a tough stretch and maybe something for head to head redrafters to consider when trying to decide between RR and JC....then so be it....we can also admit that KC's schedule last year was pretty cake for all offensive players involved....predicting a decline in fantasy production for the Chiefs seems logical all things considered....
Lhucks has his reputation.. You aren't doing anyone any good in here harassing him about it..'JuSt CuZ said:
all these people about this schedule non sense are killin me. Charles ran all over Balt who is one of the best run defenses in the league. Im sure he can run on the NFC North or a division winner... LHUCKS and Shortbow, you are dismissed 
