Ray Rice will be the #1 fantasy RB of 2011 (1 Viewer)

[ItsOnlytheRiver]

I don't think Rice will score enough TDs to be the #1 RB. Going back to 1995, only 2 RBs have scored less than 17 TDs and finished as the top RB...Chris Johnson had 16 TDs and Barry Sanders had 14...and both of them had 2000 rushing yards in those seasons. I don't see any way Rice scores anywhere near enough TDs to be the #1 RB.

Even in PPR leagues?

 

[Alex P Keaton]

There was a new poster on here a few months ago who looked at the schedules of KC last year and compared it to Rices schedule this year. Anyone have that bookmarked. I can't find it

I've been fighting this battle for years (including a lengthy quantitative post on the topic years back), but prior year Strength of Schedule has very little predictive power for year N+1. So I'm not sure how this is relevant.

part of it might be that if you are looking at it from a redraft head to haed perspective....JC has one of the worse possible schedules ever week 11-15 when most are trying to get in the playoffs and when the playoffs actually start....I agree it is sometimes difficult to assess defenses from year to year, but the five defenses he faces in those weeks may be the exception more than the rule when it comes to dismissing SOS....those defenses are regarded as some of the elite ones and honestly that really won't change much between now and the start of the season....if anything they may get tougher.....if you don't think that is a tough stretch and maybe something for head to head redrafters to consider when trying to decide between RR and JC....then so be it....we can also admit that KC's schedule last year was pretty cake for all offensive players involved....predicting a decline in fantasy production for the Chiefs seems logical all things considered....

Fair point Ref. One of the take-aways from my study was that truly elite defenses usually don't "regress to the mean" immediately in year N+1. And the really truly horrific defenses don't drift upward either. They do tend to move toward the middle though. Anyway, great points....and very much a reminder that a statistical study isn't perfect, and there is certainly variation in single-year results.

 

[LHUCKS]

Another great example where the thread should be shut down, or at a minimum the poster in question reprimanded.

On a scale of 1 to 10 how sensitive would you say you are?You must be the life of the party.

 

[Soaring Eagle]

i worry that mclain gets goal line work this year

 

[smackdaddies]

lhuckSTER strikes again.

 

[Bigboy10182000]

As a Rice owner I hope you're right but I have a hunch Adrian Peterson just me be good as well, we shall see

 

[Reginald Cornsilks]

Another great example where the thread should be shut down, or at a minimum the poster in question reprimanded.

On a scale of 1 to 10 how sensitive would you say you are?You must be the life of the party.

It is possible to make a point in here and not be a smarmy **** on your way. Just an FYI

 

[Maven]

I only agree he has a chance because hes hitting magic 24.

 

[sho nuff]

Another great example where the thread should be shut down, or at a minimum the poster in question reprimanded.

On a scale of 1 to 10 how sensitive would you say you are?You must be the life of the party.

Says the guy who was likely the reason a mod came in here talking about there have been reports from this thread.

 

[JuSt CuZ]

Besides, your posts like this in years past have tended to be the death knell for those players.

this is inaccurate at best

Not according to the countless posts I've read.

Nobody knows who you are.I was posting around here before you knew what fantasy football was.

LOL @ new guyIts obvious you will be doing more of defending yourself then making a point, as you do everytime you make a thread, so get a clue. But with your "way of doing things" I understand why...and for someone who has been around here as long you, you should know how these type of threads make people dumber, I even know that and I'm as new as 2007.Again, lol @ new guy, and you in general.

Lhucks has his reputation.. You aren't doing anyone any good in here harassing him about it..

Glad you could go out of your way to chime in.

 

[JuSt CuZ]

Another great example where the thread should be shut down, or at a minimum the poster in question reprimanded.

On a scale of 1 to 10 how sensitive would you say you are?You must be the life of the party.

Says the guy who was likely the reason a mod came in here talking about there have been reports from this thread.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Another great example where the thread should be shut down, or at a minimum the poster in question reprimanded.

On a scale of 1 to 10 how sensitive would you say you are?You must be the life of the party.

Some of us think there is a way to make meaningful points without insulting others. For whatever reason, you never learned how to play well with others.

 

[Carolina Hustler]

Besides, your posts like this in years past have tended to be the death knell for those players.

this is inaccurate at best

Not according to the countless posts I've read.

Nobody knows who you are.I was posting around here before you knew what fantasy football was.

LOL @ new guyIts obvious you will be doing more of defending yourself then making a point, as you do everytime you make a thread, so get a clue. But with your "way of doing things" I understand why...and for someone who has been around here as long you, you should know how these type of threads make people dumber, I even know that and I'm as new as 2007.Again, lol @ new guy, and you in general.

Lhucks has his reputation.. You aren't doing anyone any good in here harassing him about it..

Glad you could go out of your way to chime in.

likewise Your Un-Relenting Lhucks bashing makes me look up to you

 

[King of the Jungle]

From a Rice owners perspective I thought he lacked explosiveness last year. If they cut Mason and Heap this will not help him. If they lose 1-2 lineman to free agency this will not help him. I see a mild letdown as I do not believe this offense takes a step forward.

 

[bengalbuck]

From a Rice owners perspective I thought he lacked explosiveness last year. If they cut Mason and Heap this will not help him. If they lose 1-2 lineman to free agency this will not help him. I see a mild letdown as I do not believe this offense takes a step forward.

I go back and forth on how much I like Rice, but I think this post highlights a big reason why I worry about taking him top 3 or 4 this year. I just don't trust the Ravens offense in general. Flacco has put up okay numbers but doesn't seem to have "it." He just seems nervous at the wrong times and shrinks from the moment. The Ravens OL is also in a state of flux with some aging vets and some dependable guys hitting FA. They don't have much in the way of WRs, especially ones that scare safeties away from the box. Rice's YPC last season is a red flag that indicates some of these concerns have validity.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

From a Rice owners perspective I thought he lacked explosiveness last year. If they cut Mason and Heap this will not help him. If they lose 1-2 lineman to free agency this will not help him. I see a mild letdown as I do not believe this offense takes a step forward.

I go back and forth on how much I like Rice, but I think this post highlights a big reason why I worry about taking him top 3 or 4 this year. I just don't trust the Ravens offense in general. Flacco has put up okay numbers but doesn't seem to have "it." He just seems nervous at the wrong times and shrinks from the moment. The Ravens OL is also in a state of flux with some aging vets and some dependable guys hitting FA. They don't have much in the way of WRs, especially ones that scare safeties away from the box. Rice's YPC last season is a red flag that indicates some of these concerns have validity.

Is that bad for Rice though, or does it mean more receptions?

 

[beerbarron]

He just got the best blocking FB clearing his path...

Vonta Leach - RB - Ravens Ravens signed FB Vonta Leach to a three-year, $11 million contract.

You can close the book on Le'Ron McClain's tenure in Baltimore. Not in search of more carries like McClain, Leach was reportedly interested in becoming the league's highest paid fullback. He should be pretty close to it when the dust settles. Leach could also be the key to a Ray Rice turnaround, who saw his yards per carry drop from 5.3 in 2009 to 4.0 last season. The Ravens were going to be hard-pressed to improve on McClain as a lead-blocker this summer, but that's just what they've done.

http://www.rotoworld.com/sports/nfl/football

 

[Go Blue]

As much as it pains me to do it, I have to agree with LHUCKS on this one. With McGahee gone and Leach clearing the way, I too see Rice #1 at years end.

 

[RebelINS]

I'm not buying Foster as a guy I'd draft 1 or 2 this year, I may end up being wrong but I'm not taking the risk involved. I'd say Rice has a great shot at being #2 in PPR, more like 4-5 in Non-PPR. I think ADP will be #1 across the board, contract year with a better QB situation(although still not ideal).

 

[Saint]

As much as it pains me to do it, I have to agree with LHUCKS on this one. With McGahee gone and Leach clearing the way, I too see Rice #1 at years end.

Definitely a plus for Rice. The darkhorse here is McClain. While I see McGahee gone helping Rice, I think it helps McClain more if he resigns with BAL. If he stays, I see him as a TD vulcher this year for certain.

 

[Go Blue]

As much as it pains me to do it, I have to agree with LHUCKS on this one. With McGahee gone and Leach clearing the way, I too see Rice #1 at years end.

Definitely a plus for Rice. The darkhorse here is McClain. While I see McGahee gone helping Rice, I think it helps McClain more if he resigns with BAL. If he stays, I see him as a TD vulcher this year for certain.

While I'm no Raven insider, I'd consider the signing of Leach as the end of the McClain era in Baltimore. As it stands now; I think Rice's TD's, yards per carry and overall rushing yards are all going up this year.

 

[beerbarron]

As much as it pains me to do it, I have to agree with LHUCKS on this one. With McGahee gone and Leach clearing the way, I too see Rice #1 at years end.

Definitely a plus for Rice. The darkhorse here is McClain. While I see McGahee gone helping Rice, I think it helps McClain more if he resigns with BAL. If he stays, I see him as a TD vulcher this year for certain.

Balt wont pay for two FB's on the same roster.. Die Hard John McClain.. gone...

 

[LHUCKS]

I'm not buying Foster as a guy I'd draft 1 or 2 this year, I may end up being wrong but I'm not taking the risk involved. I'd say Rice has a great shot at being #2 in PPR, more like 4-5 in Non-PPR. I think ADP will be #1 across the board, contract year with a better QB situation(although still not ideal).

There are several reasons why I don't have Peterson #11) Teams stack the box on him2) His lack of receiving yards is a huge disadvantage3) Not enough TD opportunitiesHe's likely the best pure runner in the game, but Rice gets more yards and Foster gets more TDs.Maybe McNabb turns the Peterson's numbers up, but I have my doubts with Rice now gone...huge blow to Peterson IMHO. Teams are going to continue to stack the box on him.

 

[moderated]

There is a group of 4-5 who have a good shot at being the #1 fantasy rb, rice is in that group so I don't really see anything crazy about the prediction.

 

[LHUCKS]

There is a group of 4-5 who have a good shot at being the #1 fantasy rb, rice is in that group so I don't really see anything crazy about the prediction.

Didn't say it was crazy, but after I applied my risk analysis to my projections, Rice surprisingly came out on top.I haven't seen a single ranking with him at #1 and after my calculations he is the most likely to finish #1...just thought it was interesting.

I may be dinging Foster too much for his risk, my gut doesn't trust him to play a full 16 this year.

 

[Instinctive]

The signing of Vonta Leach gives him a big boost. He's already my favorite RB because i draft more for a high floor than a high ceiling...but he may now have the highest floor and the highest ceiling.

 

[Grady Wilson]

Besides, your posts like this in years past have tended to be the death knell for those players.

this is inaccurate at best

Why do you get so defensive when people call you out? I don't know of anyone on any board (well, there's another poster on the non football board) that gets so sensitive to comments directed towards them in a negative manner. Lighten up, dude.

 

[kinglochness]

Besides, your posts like this in years past have tended to be the death knell for those players.

this is inaccurate at best

Not according to the countless posts I've read.

Nobody knows who you are.I was posting around here before you knew what fantasy football was.

And you were wrong way back then too.

Why not just put a link to some of the "countless" posts. Seems like the only real trump card to play here. And don't say you are too busy. You are screwing off wasting your company's bandwidth just like the rest of us.

 

[PahtyTom]

The signing of Vonta Leach gives him a big boost. He's already my favorite RB because i draft more for a high floor than a high ceiling...but he may now have the highest floor and the highest ceiling.

offsets the loss of Heap because Dickson is a big downgrade as a blocker

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

this thread is gonna really piss off some Rice owners. Note to Noobs. LHUCKS is pretty much the FBG's version of Eddie Mush from a Brox Tale.

He was the world's biggest loser. Eddie Mush was a degenerate gambler.He was "Mush" because everything he touched turned to mush.At the track, the teller would give him his tickets ripped up.

 

[RUSF18]

"He bet the f***in horse?

We've been MUSHed."

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I'm not buying Foster as a guy I'd draft 1 or 2 this year, I may end up being wrong but I'm not taking the risk involved. I'd say Rice has a great shot at being #2 in PPR, more like 4-5 in Non-PPR. I think ADP will be #1 across the board, contract year with a better QB situation(although still not ideal).

There are several reasons why I don't have Peterson #11) Teams stack the box on him

2) His lack of receiving yards is a huge disadvantage

3) Not enough TD opportunities

He's likely the best pure runner in the game, but Rice gets more yards and Foster gets more TDs.

Maybe McNabb turns the Peterson's numbers up, but I have my doubts with Rice now gone...huge blow to Peterson IMHO. Teams are going to continue to stack the box on him.

besides the Brett Favre season wasnt this always the case?You dont think teams "stack the box" on Ray Rice? Make Flacco beat them with Boldin and nothing else?

 

[Sweet Love]

I'm not buying Foster as a guy I'd draft 1 or 2 this year, I may end up being wrong but I'm not taking the risk involved. I'd say Rice has a great shot at being #2 in PPR, more like 4-5 in Non-PPR. I think ADP will be #1 across the board, contract year with a better QB situation(although still not ideal).

There are several reasons why I don't have Peterson #11) Teams stack the box on him

2) His lack of receiving yards is a huge disadvantage

3) Not enough TD opportunities

He's likely the best pure runner in the game, but Rice gets more yards and Foster gets more TDs.

Maybe McNabb turns the Peterson's numbers up, but I have my doubts with Rice now gone...huge blow to Peterson IMHO. Teams are going to continue to stack the box on him.

besides the Brett Favre season wasnt this always the case?You dont think teams "stack the box" on Ray Rice? Make Flacco beat them with Boldin and nothing else?

With this signing of Leach, I like Rice as #1 in PPR (still thought he would be top 3 regardless), but while I see your point about teams stacking the box against Rice, I would mention that Flacco, while not really dominate (I don't this he ever will be), makes pretty good decisions and will make teams pay for stacking the box against Rice. I am not sure McNabb has enough touch on short throws to do so. Also, there were rumors as of last night that Floyd may sign in Baltimore. If that is the case, it would give the Ravens a proper WR who can go deep and stretch the field...which honestly, I don't think they have ever had. Rice may have a string of games early in the season that are underwhelming due to the extra attention he gets, but I think Flacco can make them pay and they will have to re-adjust to a a degree.

 

[JbizzleMan]

I'm still not starting him week 1. (Dynasty league, so I have other options) He never gets anything done against the Steelers.

 

[Ilov80s]

I'm not buying Foster as a guy I'd draft 1 or 2 this year, I may end up being wrong but I'm not taking the risk involved. I'd say Rice has a great shot at being #2 in PPR, more like 4-5 in Non-PPR. I think ADP will be #1 across the board, contract year with a better QB situation(although still not ideal).

There are several reasons why I don't have Peterson #11) Teams stack the box on him

2) His lack of receiving yards is a huge disadvantage

3) Not enough TD opportunities

He's likely the best pure runner in the game, but Rice gets more yards and Foster gets more TDs.

Maybe McNabb turns the Peterson's numbers up, but I have my doubts with Rice now gone...huge blow to Peterson IMHO. Teams are going to continue to stack the box on him.

besides the Brett Favre season wasnt this always the case?You dont think teams "stack the box" on Ray Rice? Make Flacco beat them with Boldin and nothing else?

Agreed. I have some serious doubts about this Ravens offense. The offensive line doesn't look very good to me (Birk hurt, Gaither gone, Grubbs early appearance on the PUP list) and the Ravens have only 1 proven WR or TE to take the heat off Rice.

 

[sho nuff]

The addition of Leach + McClain in KC now that could hurt Charles...Rice as #1 is more logical now than before (and it was not totally far fetched to begin with anyway).

 

[LHUCKS]

Agreed. I have some serious doubts about this Ravens offense. The offensive line doesn't look very good to me (Birk hurt, Gaither gone, Grubbs early appearance on the PUP list) and the Ravens have only 1 proven WR or TE to take the heat off Rice.

Everything I've read says the line will be intact by the beginning of the season. As for losing Mason and Heap, I don't really think that changes things for Rice much.

 

[Dr. Awesome]

While I believe you may be right on this, I'd like to hear why you think it will be so, instead of just throwing out a blanket statement without any thought process to back it up. Please expound on your claim. Besides, your posts like this in years past have tended to be the death knell for those players.

Patience grasshopper, I will reveal the reasoning once others have expressed their erroneous opinions.

How and why is this crap still allowed in the Shark Pool? If you have reasons, start with them. If you have a general thought and want to explore it with the pool, do so.

 

[LHUCKS]

While I believe you may be right on this, I'd like to hear why you think it will be so, instead of just throwing out a blanket statement without any thought process to back it up. Please expound on your claim. Besides, your posts like this in years past have tended to be the death knell for those players.

Patience grasshopper, I will reveal the reasoning once others have expressed their erroneous opinions.

How and why is this crap still allowed in the Shark Pool? If you have reasons, start with them. If you have a general thought and want to explore it with the pool, do so.

You're not fooling anyone, quit trolling and leave. This thread is now at 3 pages and almost 4000 views in just a short period of time. Don't be jealous becuase you can't generate that kind of discussion around here. Board cred is something I have, and you only wish you had.

 

[Dr. Awesome]

Please keep civil in this thread and avoid personal attacks. I've already got reports on it and I don't want to shut it down. Stay on the Ray Rice topic, not the popularity of various posters.TIAMW

Don't give us that crap. The mods know damn well what LHUCKS is. You guys want to allow it to continue for whatever reason. He baits people into his threads under the guise of discussion then reports folks who rightfully call him out. If Joe wants a better Shark Pool he needs to start by banning LHUCKS (if not severe reprimands). Any other action (or lack thereof) clearly shows the quality of this place really doesn't matter.You guys can't be that dense. Pull your heads out of your backside and take some action. He's clearly a deliberate irritant. Ban him or shut up when the reports come flying in - because that's what happens in most of his threads. I can't believe I actually came into this thread. I saw three pages and thought it might actually be something worth discussing. Instead there is MAYBE one page worth of actual info and 2+ pages of LHUCKS baiting people. Lock this damned thread down already.

 

[higgins]

Please keep civil in this thread and avoid personal attacks. I've already got reports on it and I don't want to shut it down. Stay on the Ray Rice topic, not the popularity of various posters.TIAMW

Don't give us that crap. The mods know damn well what LHUCKS is. You guys want to allow it to continue for whatever reason. He baits people into his threads under the guise of discussion then reports folks who rightfully call him out. If Joe wants a better Shark Pool he needs to start by banning LHUCKS (if not severe reprimands). Any other action (or lack thereof) clearly shows the quality of this place really doesn't matter.You guys can't be that dense. Pull your heads out of your backside and take some action. He's clearly a deliberate irritant. Ban him or shut up when the reports come flying in - because that's what happens in most of his threads. I can't believe I actually came into this thread. I saw three pages and thought it might actually be something worth discussing. Instead there is MAYBE one page worth of actual info and 2+ pages of LHUCKS baiting people. Lock this damned thread down already.

 

[LHUCKS]

Don't give us that crap. The mods know damn well what LHUCKS is. You guys want to allow it to continue for whatever reason. He baits people into his threads under the guise of discussion then reports folks who rightfully call him out.

Uhh...I haven't reported a person in months. Not sure where you're getting your data big fella. ETA: calling the staff dense and telling them to shutup probably isn't going to get you very far around here.

 

[LHUCKS]

The addition of Leach + McClain in KC now that could hurt Charles...Rice as #1 is more logical now than before (and it was not totally far fetched to begin with anyway).

Do you find it interesting that not a single ff writer has ranked Rice #1 this year(that I'm aware of.)

 

[Mystery Achiever]

There are several reasons why I don't have Peterson #12) His lack of receiving yards is a huge disadvantage

FWIW, I heard McNabb talk yesterday about getting him more involved in the passing game.(Rice and Peterson are who I am looking at with 2nd pick).

 

[Cookiemonster]

I'm still not starting him week 1. (Dynasty league, so I have other options) He never gets anything done against the Steelers.

11/29/09 PIT 19/88 (4.6)/0 + 5/67/0 = 155 yds (15.5 ppr +5)12/27/09 @ PIT 30/141 (4.7)/0 + 1/14/0 = 155 yds (15.5 ppr +1)That said, I also had him on the bench in one league for Gore/Mendenhall as he got keyed and stuffed by Pitt last year, and I don't see the Baltimore offense looking as good as last year. I had him before Leach as RB 4-6 and after at 2-4.-- as for hucks, to me he's like Michael Irvin. Can't stand to listen to him, but he gets people to talking. I think that's his "board cred," and I'll give the Devil his due.

 

[greggorymac]

The addition of Leach + McClain in KC now that could hurt Charles...Rice as #1 is more logical now than before (and it was not totally far fetched to begin with anyway).

Do you find it interesting that not a single ff writer has ranked Rice #1 this year(that I'm aware of.)

Agreed. I'm beginning to see him pass Charles up to the #3 spot but nowhere have I seen him at #1 (and we probably won't). I think he's got a great chance to do so though. McClain leaving was huge for Rice and I think him landing in KC will hurt Charles more than others like to admit. Keep up the good stuff LHUCKS.

 

[LHUCKS]

-- as for hucks, to me he's like Michael Irvin. Can't stand to listen to him, but he gets people to talking. I think that's his "board cred," and I'll give the Devil his due.

So you're saying I'm a Hall of Famer.

 

[LHUCKS]

Keep up the good stuff LHUCKS.

Don't worry, a few trolls can't slow me down...no matter how hard they try.

 

[Cookiemonster]

-- as for hucks, to me he's like Michael Irvin. Can't stand to listen to him, but he gets people to talking. I think that's his "board cred," and I'll give the Devil his due.

So you're saying I'm a Hall of Famer.

Pretty sure the cocaine and hookers would keep you out (joking, no accusations).

 

[squistion]

-- as for hucks, to me he's like Michael Irvin. Can't stand to listen to him, but he gets people to talking. I think that's his "board cred," and I'll give the Devil his due.

So you're saying I'm a Hall of Famer.

Yes, he was, if there is a HOF for people one can't stand to listen to but gets people talking.