Ray Rice will be the #1 fantasy RB of 2011 (2 Viewers)

[LHUCKS]

Im starting to think 1. Ap. 2. Rice. 3. Foster. Foster hammy concerns me although it was pulled on a 40yd td run. Rice plays the steelers twice. Whats the rest of his schedule like? Did rice run behind Neal when he was fb there? If so, how was he with a true lead blocker? Whats the oline status?

It looks like cake, his only two hard games are the steelers and the ravens will grind it out like they always do, he may not get a ton of yards but he will get the carries and catches.vs steelers@ titans@ ramsvs jetsBYEvs texans@ jaguarsvs cardinals@ steelers@ seahawksvs bengalsvs 49ers@ brownsvs colts@ chargersvs browns@ bengals.

 

[tsarc888]

LHUCKS- at the beginning of the thread, you mentioned you were going to wait until others gave their opinions before posting your reasoning. I've seen pieces of your thinking throughout the thread. Have you given all your reasons already or is that still coming?

 

[LHUCKS]

LHUCKS- at the beginning of the thread, you mentioned you were going to wait until others gave their opinions before posting your reasoning. I've seen pieces of your thinking throughout the thread. Have you given all your reasons already or is that still coming?

I planned on addressing them as they arose. If there is a player in particular you are curious about let me know.

 

[Ilov80s]

LHUCKS- at the beginning of the thread, you mentioned you were going to wait until others gave their opinions before posting your reasoning. I've seen pieces of your thinking throughout the thread. Have you given all your reasons already or is that still coming?

I planned on addressing them as they arose. If there is a player in particular you are curious about let me know.

Umm...Ray Rice?

 

[LHUCKS]

LHUCKS- at the beginning of the thread, you mentioned you were going to wait until others gave their opinions before posting your reasoning. I've seen pieces of your thinking throughout the thread. Have you given all your reasons already or is that still coming?

I planned on addressing them as they arose. If there is a player in particular you are curious about let me know.

Umm...Ray Rice?

ooops, got my threads confused...

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

It looks like Ricky Williams is coming to Baltimore.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

It looks like Ricky Williams is coming to Baltimore.

depth move. they were not going into the season with just Ray Rice and Parmele doesnt effect Ray Rice any

 

[greggorymac]

It looks like Ricky Williams is coming to Baltimore.

depth move. they were not going into the season with just Ray Rice and Parmele doesnt effect Ray Rice any

You're delusional. Why wouldn't Ricky fill McGahee's position? This move definitely affects Ray Rice as he will lose 5-6 TD opportunities at the goal line because of it.

 

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

It looks like Ricky Williams is coming to Baltimore.

depth move. they were not going into the season with just Ray Rice and Parmele doesnt effect Ray Rice any

I don't see how you don't see Ricky at least vulturing TDs. This doesn't bode well for Rice as #1

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

It looks like Ricky Williams is coming to Baltimore.

depth move. they were not going into the season with just Ray Rice and Parmele doesnt effect Ray Rice any

You're delusional. Why wouldn't Ricky fill McGahee's position? This move definitely affects Ray Rice as he will lose 5-6 TD opportunities at the goal line because of it.

Odds are someone was going to get 5-6 vulture TDs anyway, Parmalee whomever. Im not concerned. I mostly play PPR anyway a few lost tds isnt a death blow.Im not touting Ray Rice as #1 anyway, I think top 5 is pretty much a lock in PPR leagues

 

[Sweetness_34]

Ricky Williams and his goal line vulture TDs say hi .... another LHUCKs prediction goes down the toilet!

 

[LHUCKS]

Ricky Williams and his goal line vulture TDs say hi .... another LHUCKs prediction goes down the toilet!

I love me some Ricky Williams, but the guy is getting old.No real threat here...every workhorse gets spelled from time to time.

 

[T with T]

It looks like Ricky Williams is coming to Baltimore.

depth move. they were not going into the season with just Ray Rice and Parmele doesnt effect Ray Rice any

You're delusional. Why wouldn't Ricky fill McGahee's position? This move definitely affects Ray Rice as he will lose 5-6 TD opportunities at the goal line because of it.

agreed, if anything Williams is better then Mcgahee... This doesn't bode well at all for Rice being Number 1. I think LHUCKS still thinks Foster will be 1.

 

[T with T]

Ricky Williams and his goal line vulture TDs say hi .... another LHUCKs prediction goes down the toilet!

 

[shortbow]

With absolutely no depth at RB they were gonna bring someone in no matter what, Rice will still be given every shot to succeed and if he squanders it then Ricky will begin to eat into the goal line carries, I wouldnt expect more than 10-15 carries from williams a game, mostly to give rice a breather, surprised Ricky is even playing this year after announcing his retirement twice last year.

 

[LHUCKS]

With absolutely no depth at RB they were gonna bring someone in no matter what, Rice will still be given every shot to succeed and if he squanders it then Ricky will begin to eat into the goal line carries, I wouldnt expect more than 10-15 carries from williams a game, mostly to give rice a breather, surprised Ricky is even playing this year after announcing his retirement twice last year.

 

[omally]

With absolutely no depth at RB they were gonna bring someone in no matter what, Rice will still be given every shot to succeed and if he squanders it then Ricky will begin to eat into the goal line carries, I wouldnt expect more than 10-15 carries from williams a game, mostly to give rice a breather, surprised Ricky is even playing this year after announcing his retirement twice last year.

Cameron likes Ricky, and Ricky will definitely get some carries even though Rice is the #1. "It gives us a proven playmaker, an outstanding runner, an outstanding receiver and an outstanding pass protector," offensive coordinator Cam Cameron said. "He knows this system and he has played extremely well in this system."

 

[ourmanflint]

Ricky Williams and his goal line vulture TDs say hi .... another LHUCKs prediction goes down the toilet!

Sounds like Rice gets the goal line at least for now. From BaltimoreRavens.com

On how much better the team is in short-yardage situations with the addition of RB Ricky Williams and FB Vonta Leach: “Obviously, it is something we need to improve from a year ago. We’d like to get back [to] where we were two and three years ago, where we were one of best – if not the best – in the League. I think we know what we want to be, and I think we know how to do it, and it’s a matter of getting these guys a little more comfortable. Vonta [Leach] hasn’t been here very long. Ricky [Williams] is not here yet. Ray Rice will play a major role in short-yardage and goal-line [situations] this year. We were just fortunate to have a guy like [former RB] Willis [McGahee], but this year Ray Rice will be in short-yardage and goal-line [situations] as well. He is outstanding. We just happened to have a couple of them in the last few years. You’ll see him in there as well.”

 

[Tjaden]

LHUCKS- at the beginning of the thread, you mentioned you were going to wait until others gave their opinions before posting your reasoning. I've seen pieces of your thinking throughout the thread. Have you given all your reasons already or is that still coming?

yes, waiting for it too.And you mentioned your 'rankings/projections' quite some times- so you gather the information on this board(e.g. about R.Rice) and put them together as your own projection/ranking or do you mix them to get a personal touch (just curious)? Cause it would make sense with your previous statement at the start ("waiting in others opinion"). And btw- what does the duration of a membership tells you about other people?

Nobody knows who you are.I was posting around here before you knew what fantasy football was

I joined a year ago but I'm not thinking that I'm the one who's 'making the calls now' cause the other member has joined in 2011. If a member has a valid point and good arguments, it doesn't matter to me if he has joined 1975 or yesterday. Contrary to that, a 10-year member could tell the greatest fantasy in history...To come back to your statement- I value Rice higher than AP in my dynasty format (non-ppr) and that's why I traded AP for Rice. I like BAL O-Line more than MIN. With Leach and Yanda in town, Rice will see more gaps/have more time to break free. I don't look at SOS, players can be injured, out of shape, Defense Coach could be insane, etc...

 

[Truman]

With absolutely no depth at RB they were gonna bring someone in no matter what, Rice will still be given every shot to succeed and if he squanders it then Ricky will begin to eat into the goal line carries, I wouldnt expect more than 10-15 carries from williams a game, mostly to give rice a breather, surprised Ricky is even playing this year after announcing his retirement twice last year.

There's no chance Ricky gets 10-15 carries, this isn't Miami and he's not backing up Ronnie Brown. 15 a game would give him more than Matt Forte last year and 10 would give him as many as ....Ricky Williams in Miami.Mcgahee averaged 6 a game last year and Williams will likely have a similar amount - though only because he's not sharing with Mclain and Baltimore have a QB who they let throw the ball. Rice is going to see more goalline carries which would have gone to one of those guys last year. Williams is insurance for losing both those guys.

 

[dmac37]

From Rotoworld:

Despite the addition of Ricky Williams, OC Cam Cameron made it clear that Ray Rice will be the Ravens' goal-line back this season.

"Ray Rice will play a major role in short-yardage and goal-line this year," Cameron said after the Williams signing. "We were just fortunate to have a guy like Willis [McGahee, before], but this year Ray Rice will be in short-yardage and goal-line as well. He is outstanding." Rice dropped from the No. 4 fantasy back in 2009 to No. 11 in 2010, in large part because his season was so low-scoring. Getting goal-line carries is a large addition to his already top-six overall fantasy value. Williams is strictly a handcuff pick.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

From Rotoworldespite the addition of Ricky Williams, OC Cam Cameron made it clear that Ray Rice will be the Ravens' goal-line back this season."Ray Rice will play a major role in short-yardage and goal-line this year," Cameron said after the Williams signing. "We were just fortunate to have a guy like Willis [McGahee, before], but this year Ray Rice will be in short-yardage and goal-line as well. He is outstanding." Rice dropped from the No. 4 fantasy back in 2009 to No. 11 in 2010, in large part because his season was so low-scoring. Getting goal-line carries is a large addition to his already top-six overall fantasy value. Williams is strictly a handcuff pick.

After seeing that Ricky only got a $100k signing bonus this doesn't surprise me. The deal is set up that they can cut him pretty easily. He knows the offense, but Rice is going to be the man here.What's up with the Ravens o-line?

 

[shortbow]

Last year on his contract, they are gonna run him ragged.

There's no chance Ricky gets 10-15 carries, this isn't Miami and he's not backing up Ronnie Brown. 15 a game would give him more than Matt Forte last year and 10 would give him as many as ....Ricky Williams in Miami.

I said you shouldnt expect more, implying his ceiling. But I dont think its unrealistic to assume that 8-10+ carries a game to give rice a breather.

 

[Sweet Love]

Rice's value is going through the roof...just was offered Chris Johnson straight-up for Rice in a .5PPR.

 

[Ilov80s]

Last year on his contract, they are gonna run him ragged.

There's no chance Ricky gets 10-15 carries, this isn't Miami and he's not backing up Ronnie Brown. 15 a game would give him more than Matt Forte last year and 10 would give him as many as ....Ricky Williams in Miami.

I said you shouldnt expect more, implying his ceiling. But I dont think its unrealistic to assume that 8-10+ carries a game to give rice a breather.

Last year Rice averaged 19 carries a game and Baltimore ran the ball 30 times a game on average.It makes sense that Ricky gets about 10 carries a game.

 

[shnikies]

Last year on his contract, they are gonna run him ragged.

There's no chance Ricky gets 10-15 carries, this isn't Miami and he's not backing up Ronnie Brown. 15 a game would give him more than Matt Forte last year and 10 would give him as many as ....Ricky Williams in Miami.

I said you shouldnt expect more, implying his ceiling. But I dont think its unrealistic to assume that 8-10+ carries a game to give rice a breather.

Last year Rice averaged 19 carries a game and Baltimore ran the ball 30 times a game on average.It makes sense that Ricky gets about 10 carries a game.

I initially thought Ricky would replace McGahee's role, 8-10 carries and goal line, but the previous Cameron quote says otherwise. I doubt Ricky gets 10 carries a game and I would guess closer to 5. My first tier was AP, CJ and Foster in no particular order but that quote makes Rice as appealing as any back in fantasy.

 

[Ilov80s]

Last year on his contract, they are gonna run him ragged.

There's no chance Ricky gets 10-15 carries, this isn't Miami and he's not backing up Ronnie Brown. 15 a game would give him more than Matt Forte last year and 10 would give him as many as ....Ricky Williams in Miami.

I said you shouldnt expect more, implying his ceiling. But I dont think its unrealistic to assume that 8-10+ carries a game to give rice a breather.

Last year Rice averaged 19 carries a game and Baltimore ran the ball 30 times a game on average.It makes sense that Ricky gets about 10 carries a game.

I initially thought Ricky would replace McGahee's role, 8-10 carries and goal line, but the previous Cameron quote says otherwise. I doubt Ricky gets 10 carries a game and I would guess closer to 5. My first tier was AP, CJ and Foster in no particular order but that quote makes Rice as appealing as any back in fantasy.

So if Ricky just gets 5 carries a game, who do you think gets those other 5?

 

[shnikies]

Last year on his contract, they are gonna run him ragged.

There's no chance Ricky gets 10-15 carries, this isn't Miami and he's not backing up Ronnie Brown. 15 a game would give him more than Matt Forte last year and 10 would give him as many as ....Ricky Williams in Miami.

I said you shouldnt expect more, implying his ceiling. But I dont think its unrealistic to assume that 8-10+ carries a game to give rice a breather.

Last year Rice averaged 19 carries a game and Baltimore ran the ball 30 times a game on average.It makes sense that Ricky gets about 10 carries a game.

I initially thought Ricky would replace McGahee's role, 8-10 carries and goal line, but the previous Cameron quote says otherwise. I doubt Ricky gets 10 carries a game and I would guess closer to 5. My first tier was AP, CJ and Foster in no particular order but that quote makes Rice as appealing as any back in fantasy.

So if Ricky just gets 5 carries a game, who do you think gets those other 5?

If Rice is getting short yardage and goal line then he might be looking at 350+ carries this year.

 

[Ilov80s]

Last year on his contract, they are gonna run him ragged.

There's no chance Ricky gets 10-15 carries, this isn't Miami and he's not backing up Ronnie Brown. 15 a game would give him more than Matt Forte last year and 10 would give him as many as ....Ricky Williams in Miami.

I said you shouldnt expect more, implying his ceiling. But I dont think its unrealistic to assume that 8-10+ carries a game to give rice a breather.

Last year Rice averaged 19 carries a game and Baltimore ran the ball 30 times a game on average.It makes sense that Ricky gets about 10 carries a game.

I initially thought Ricky would replace McGahee's role, 8-10 carries and goal line, but the previous Cameron quote says otherwise. I doubt Ricky gets 10 carries a game and I would guess closer to 5. My first tier was AP, CJ and Foster in no particular order but that quote makes Rice as appealing as any back in fantasy.

So if Ricky just gets 5 carries a game, who do you think gets those other 5?

If Rice is getting short yardage and goal line then he might be looking at 350+ carries this year.

Yeah, if he gets 400+ touches, he certainly will be a stud and will threaten to be the #1 RB.

 

[shnikies]

Last year on his contract, they are gonna run him ragged.

There's no chance Ricky gets 10-15 carries, this isn't Miami and he's not backing up Ronnie Brown. 15 a game would give him more than Matt Forte last year and 10 would give him as many as ....Ricky Williams in Miami.

I said you shouldnt expect more, implying his ceiling. But I dont think its unrealistic to assume that 8-10+ carries a game to give rice a breather.

Last year Rice averaged 19 carries a game and Baltimore ran the ball 30 times a game on average.It makes sense that Ricky gets about 10 carries a game.

I initially thought Ricky would replace McGahee's role, 8-10 carries and goal line, but the previous Cameron quote says otherwise. I doubt Ricky gets 10 carries a game and I would guess closer to 5. My first tier was AP, CJ and Foster in no particular order but that quote makes Rice as appealing as any back in fantasy.

So if Ricky just gets 5 carries a game, who do you think gets those other 5?

If Rice is getting short yardage and goal line then he might be looking at 350+ carries this year.

Yeah, if he gets 400+ touches, he certainly will be a stud and will threaten to be the #1 RB.

Barring injury, it's all but certain he'll get 400+ touches.

 

[Ilov80s]

Last year on his contract, they are gonna run him ragged.

NoThere's no chance Ricky gets 10-15 carries, this isn't Miami and he's not backing up Ronnie Brown. 15 a game would give him more than Matt Forte last year and 10 would give him as many as ....Ricky Williams in Miami.

I said you shouldnt expect more, implying his ceiling. But I dont think its unrealistic to assume that 8-10+ carries a game to give rice a breather.

Last year Rice averaged 19 carries a game and Baltimore ran the ball 30 times a game on average.It makes sense that Ricky gets about 10 carries a game.

I initially thought Ricky would replace McGahee's role, 8-10 carries and goal line, but the previous Cameron quote says otherwise. I doubt Ricky gets 10 carries a game and I would guess closer to 5. My first tier was AP, CJ and Foster in no particular order but that quote makes Rice as appealing as any back in fantasy.

So if Ricky just gets 5 carries a game, who do you think gets those other 5?

If Rice is getting short yardage and goal line then he might be looking at 350+ carries this year.

Yeah, if he gets 400+ touches, he certainly will be a stud and will threaten to be the #1 RB.

Barring injury, it's all but certain he'll get 400+ touches.

It is? It's only happened twice the last 4 years.

 

[shortbow]

I think its very unlikely he will get 400, I think he makes a very strong push towards 350+ but in reality he doesnt need it.

254 Carries for 1339 yds - 78 receptions avg 9

307 Carries for 1220 yds - 63 receptions avg 8.8

So if he avgs only 4 ypc, 1400 yds + 650-800 receiving is definately #1 material.

 

[shnikies]

Last year on his contract, they are gonna run him ragged.

NoThere's no chance Ricky gets 10-15 carries, this isn't Miami and he's not backing up Ronnie Brown. 15 a game would give him more than Matt Forte last year and 10 would give him as many as ....Ricky Williams in Miami.

I said you shouldnt expect more, implying his ceiling. But I dont think its unrealistic to assume that 8-10+ carries a game to give rice a breather.

Last year Rice averaged 19 carries a game and Baltimore ran the ball 30 times a game on average.It makes sense that Ricky gets about 10 carries a game.

I initially thought Ricky would replace McGahee's role, 8-10 carries and goal line, but the previous Cameron quote says otherwise. I doubt Ricky gets 10 carries a game and I would guess closer to 5. My first tier was AP, CJ and Foster in no particular order but that quote makes Rice as appealing as any back in fantasy.

So if Ricky just gets 5 carries a game, who do you think gets those other 5?

If Rice is getting short yardage and goal line then he might be looking at 350+ carries this year.

Yeah, if he gets 400+ touches, he certainly will be a stud and will threaten to be the #1 RB.

Barring injury, it's all but certain he'll get 400+ touches.

It is? It's only happened twice the last 4 years.

Despite the addition of Ricky Williams, OC Cam Cameron made it clear that Ray Rice will be the Ravens' goal-line back this season."Ray Rice will play a major role in short-yardage and goal-line this year," Cameron said after the Williams signing. "We were just fortunate to have a guy like Willis [McGahee, before], but this year Ray Rice will be in short-yardage and goal-line as well. He is outstanding." Rice dropped from the No. 4 fantasy back in 2009 to No. 11 in 2010, in large part because his season was so low-scoring. Getting goal-line carries is a large addition to his already top-six overall fantasy value. Williams is strictly a handcuff pick.That quote makes it seem pretty likely. 370 touches last year including a stretch where he played banged up.

 

[sportsphysio]

The quote from Cameron is making me seriously consider Rice #1 overall in my 0.5 PPR league. The primary argument against Rice has been the lack of goal line carries. If he get 10-12 rushing TD's for the season, what's holding him back from being #1 overall (barring injury?):

1. The Leach Effect.

2. No sharing of the rushing load.

3. Incredibly easy schedule (at least on paper right now).

4. Lot's of dump offs due to loss of Heap.

All of the other top RB's would have greater question marks in my eyes.

 

[LHUCKS]

 

[Ilov80s]

Last year on his contract, they are gonna run him ragged.

NoThere's no chance Ricky gets 10-15 carries, this isn't Miami and he's not backing up Ronnie Brown. 15 a game would give him more than Matt Forte last year and 10 would give him as many as ....Ricky Williams in Miami.

I said you shouldnt expect more, implying his ceiling. But I dont think its unrealistic to assume that 8-10+ carries a game to give rice a breather.

Last year Rice averaged 19 carries a game and Baltimore ran the ball 30 times a game on average.It makes sense that Ricky gets about 10 carries a game.

I initially thought Ricky would replace McGahee's role, 8-10 carries and goal line, but the previous Cameron quote says otherwise. I doubt Ricky gets 10 carries a game and I would guess closer to 5. My first tier was AP, CJ and Foster in no particular order but that quote makes Rice as appealing as any back in fantasy.

So if Ricky just gets 5 carries a game, who do you think gets those other 5?

If Rice is getting short yardage and goal line then he might be looking at 350+ carries this year.

Yeah, if he gets 400+ touches, he certainly will be a stud and will threaten to be the #1 RB.

Barring injury, it's all but certain he'll get 400+ touches.

It is? It's only happened twice the last 4 years.

Despite the addition of Ricky Williams, OC Cam Cameron made it clear that Ray Rice will be the Ravens' goal-line back this season."Ray Rice will play a major role in short-yardage and goal-line this year," Cameron said after the Williams signing. "We were just fortunate to have a guy like Willis [McGahee, before], but this year Ray Rice will be in short-yardage and goal-line as well. He is outstanding." Rice dropped from the No. 4 fantasy back in 2009 to No. 11 in 2010, in large part because his season was so low-scoring. Getting goal-line carries is a large addition to his already top-six overall fantasy value. Williams is strictly a handcuff pick.That quote makes it seem pretty likely. 370 touches last year including a stretch where he played banged up.

Rice's value has gone up due to inclusion on more GL packages. However, that doesn't mean an increase in his overall # of touches. Regardless, the quote from Cameron is a reason to like Rice more now. I still think it is really unlikely he finishes 1st overall, but he seems like a lock for top 5.

 

[cvnpoka]

Rice's value has gone up due to inclusion on more GL packages. However, that doesn't mean an increase in his overall # of touches. Regardless, the quote from Cameron is a reason to like Rice more now. I still think it is really unlikely he finishes 1st overall, but he seems like a lock for top 5.

every player is "really unlikely" to finish 1st overall.

 

[LHUCKS]

Rice's value has gone up due to inclusion on more GL packages. However, that doesn't mean an increase in his overall # of touches. Regardless, the quote from Cameron is a reason to like Rice more now. I still think it is really unlikely he finishes 1st overall, but he seems like a lock for top 5.

every player is "really unlikely" to finish 1st overall.

correct

 

[Ilov80s]

Rice's value has gone up due to inclusion on more GL packages. However, that doesn't mean an increase in his overall # of touches. Regardless, the quote from Cameron is a reason to like Rice more now. I still think it is really unlikely he finishes 1st overall, but he seems like a lock for top 5.

every player is "really unlikely" to finish 1st overall.

I meant relative to the other top 5-10 RBs.

 

[shortbow]

Rice's value has gone up due to inclusion on more GL packages. However, that doesn't mean an increase in his overall # of touches. Regardless, the quote from Cameron is a reason to like Rice more now. I still think it is really unlikely he finishes 1st overall, but he seems like a lock for top 5.

every player is "really unlikely" to finish 1st overall.

I meant relative to the other top 5-10 RBs.

I realize its not particularly important, but I have to ask, do you have a #1 RB projected? Ive only heard a few arguments this year for a few backs (Rice, Foster, Mende) and am curious to hear from the dissenting opinions.

 

[Ilov80s]

Rice's value has gone up due to inclusion on more GL packages. However, that doesn't mean an increase in his overall # of touches. Regardless, the quote from Cameron is a reason to like Rice more now. I still think it is really unlikely he finishes 1st overall, but he seems like a lock for top 5.

every player is "really unlikely" to finish 1st overall.

I meant relative to the other top 5-10 RBs.

I realize its not particularly important, but I have to ask, do you have a #1 RB projected? Ive only heard a few arguments this year for a few backs (Rice, Foster, Mende) and am curious to hear from the dissenting opinions.

For non ppr, I have Peterson #1. He hasn't finished lower than than 3rd in non ppr over his 4 year career. PPR, I have Chris Johnson #1. Over the last 3 years he has finished 11th, 1st, and 5th in ppr. In the early rounds, I am just trying to avoid risk. I think Darren McFadden and LeSean McCoy have a better chance of being the actual #1 RB this year than ADP or CJ3. I also think DMac and McCoy have a better chance of finishing in outside of the top 20.

 

[shortbow]

Rice's value has gone up due to inclusion on more GL packages. However, that doesn't mean an increase in his overall # of touches. Regardless, the quote from Cameron is a reason to like Rice more now. I still think it is really unlikely he finishes 1st overall, but he seems like a lock for top 5.

every player is "really unlikely" to finish 1st overall.

I meant relative to the other top 5-10 RBs.

I realize its not particularly important, but I have to ask, do you have a #1 RB projected? Ive only heard a few arguments this year for a few backs (Rice, Foster, Mende) and am curious to hear from the dissenting opinions.

For non ppr, I have Peterson #1. He hasn't finished lower than than 3rd in non ppr over his 4 year career. PPR, I have Chris Johnson #1. Over the last 3 years he has finished 11th, 1st, and 5th in ppr. In the early rounds, I am just trying to avoid risk. I think Darren McFadden and LeSean McCoy have a better chance of being the actual #1 RB this year than ADP or CJ3. I also think DMac and McCoy have a better chance of finishing in outside of the top 20.

I understand completely. These are exactly the same projections I had but ive had my eye on Rice since 08', once things started falling into place it gave Rice the edge.I still have Peterson as #1 in standard with Rice in the top 3 and CJ #2 in PPR with Rice #1 and Peterson in the top 5.CJ2K: I think the holes in the offense lower his effective just enough, still dominant but struggles in more than a few games.

 

[sportsphysio]

Rice's value has gone up due to inclusion on more GL packages. However, that doesn't mean an increase in his overall # of touches. Regardless, the quote from Cameron is a reason to like Rice more now. I still think it is really unlikely he finishes 1st overall, but he seems like a lock for top 5.

With the number 1 pick, I really don't expect to get lucky enough to end up with the #1 player in fantasy football at year end; way too many variables involved that affect that. My goal is to simply pick a guy that is as close a lock as possible to finish top 5. There may be several candidates this year and no true consensus #1, but Rice could be that guy. We'll see how the preseason plays out, and see if Cameron is true to his word. If so, I'm liking Rice.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

How did he look last night. Stats were underwhelming. The o-line concerns me a bit. How did that unit perform?

 

[Thomsen]

First off, strength of schedule is pretty much impossible to predict. The problem for Rice this year, seems to be two things: O-line and offense. Flacco is an above average starter, but who is he throwing to? Boldin yes, but who else? Heap is gone, Mason is gone and he now has to rely on Doss, Smith, Pitta? I think the offense will regress, which in turn means less GL situations. The O-line struggled last year and it hasn't improved much. Jah Reid struggled yesterday, and the center position is a huge question mark.

He will get more carries perhaps, and yes Vonta Leach helps, but his situation as a whole is worse than last season IMO.

 

[Ilov80s]

Rice's value has gone up due to inclusion on more GL packages. However, that doesn't mean an increase in his overall # of touches. Regardless, the quote from Cameron is a reason to like Rice more now. I still think it is really unlikely he finishes 1st overall, but he seems like a lock for top 5.

every player is "really unlikely" to finish 1st overall.

I meant relative to the other top 5-10 RBs.

I realize its not particularly important, but I have to ask, do you have a #1 RB projected? Ive only heard a few arguments this year for a few backs (Rice, Foster, Mende) and am curious to hear from the dissenting opinions.

For non ppr, I have Peterson #1. He hasn't finished lower than than 3rd in non ppr over his 4 year career. PPR, I have Chris Johnson #1. Over the last 3 years he has finished 11th, 1st, and 5th in ppr. In the early rounds, I am just trying to avoid risk. I think Darren McFadden and LeSean McCoy have a better chance of being the actual #1 RB this year than ADP or CJ3. I also think DMac and McCoy have a better chance of finishing in outside of the top 20.

I understand completely. These are exactly the same projections I had but ive had my eye on Rice since 08', once things started falling into place it gave Rice the edge.I still have Peterson as #1 in standard with Rice in the top 3 and CJ #2 in PPR with Rice #1 and Peterson in the top 5.CJ2K: I think the holes in the offense lower his effective just enough, still dominant but struggles in more than a few games.

Last year, Chris Johnson's ypc dropped from 5.6 tp 4.2 and he went from 408 touches to 360. The Titans had only 907 offensive plays last year, least in the NFL. The year prior they ran 990 offensive plays. With the improved QB situation, I think the Titans come closer to the 990 than the 907 which means an additional 15-30 touches for Chris Johnson. I just don't see much room for Chris Johnson to come down fom his 2010 season.

 

[matttyl]

First off, strength of schedule is pretty much impossible to predict. The problem for Rice this year, seems to be two things: O-line and offense. Flacco is an above average starter, but who is he throwing to? Boldin yes, but who else? Heap is gone, Mason is gone and he now has to rely on Doss, Smith, Pitta? I think the offense will regress, which in turn means less GL situations. The O-line struggled last year and it hasn't improved much. Jah Reid struggled yesterday, and the center position is a huge question mark. He will get more carries perhaps, and yes Vonta Leach helps, but his situation as a whole is worse than last season IMO.

I'd like to take a shot at your first statement there, concerning strength of schedule. About 2 months ago I posted a very lengthy writeup I did about strength of schedule based on the non-division games a team has. Last year the AFC North (which Rice is in) played the AFC East and the NFC South. Historically (I went back 2-3 years) those are two of the tougher divisions when considering rushing defenses. Rice had nearly 1,800 yards. This year he'll play the AFC South and the NFC West. Seriously, do I have to go on after posting that?! He gets to play Arizona, Seattle, Indy, Houston, Jacksonville.... Those two divisions historically (past 2-3 years) are the weakest ones when considering rushing defense. Indy has NEVER been a run stopper - Arizona has NEVER had a top 10 defense....If you want more proof, just look at all the breakout players that came from the AFC West last year, which is the division that had the "privilege" of playing the AFC South and the NFC West (the same two Rice plays this year) - Lloyd, Orton, Charles, Bowe, Cassell, McFadden, Zach Miller while hurt!, Rivers, Gates (ok, the last two aren't really "breakouts", but both put up EXCEPTIONAL years given their circumstances). I rest my case.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

First off, strength of schedule is pretty much impossible to predict. The problem for Rice this year, seems to be two things: O-line and offense. Flacco is an above average starter, but who is he throwing to? Boldin yes, but who else? Heap is gone, Mason is gone and he now has to rely on Doss, Smith, Pitta? I think the offense will regress, which in turn means less GL situations. The O-line struggled last year and it hasn't improved much. Jah Reid struggled yesterday, and the center position is a huge question mark. He will get more carries perhaps, and yes Vonta Leach helps, but his situation as a whole is worse than last season IMO.

The lack of options for Flacco concerns me regarding room to run, but this could also benefit Rice in the sense that he becomes even more of a receiver perhaps.The o-line worries me though and I'd like more information before I put him in front of Foster (if healthy).

 

[Ilov80s]

http://www.fantasyomatic.com/?p=3376

BAL has the 3rd toughest schedule in 2011 against teams based on Opponent RZ Scoring Percentage.

Also, I'll look at 2010's teams based on RB FF points scored against them (higher ranking=less points given up):NFC West

SF 9th

STL 13th

SEA 27th

ARI 31st

AFC South

JAX 26th

TEN 18th

HOU 23rd

INDY 25th

The rest of their schedule is where it gets more difficult:

Steelers 1st

Bengals 14th

Browns 15th

Jets 2nd

Chargers 11th

If you average all those #s out, their opponent's this year ranked on average 14th in FF points given up to RBs last year.

 

[Ilov80s]

First off, strength of schedule is pretty much impossible to predict. The problem for Rice this year, seems to be two things: O-line and offense. Flacco is an above average starter, but who is he throwing to? Boldin yes, but who else? Heap is gone, Mason is gone and he now has to rely on Doss, Smith, Pitta? I think the offense will regress, which in turn means less GL situations. The O-line struggled last year and it hasn't improved much. Jah Reid struggled yesterday, and the center position is a huge question mark. He will get more carries perhaps, and yes Vonta Leach helps, but his situation as a whole is worse than last season IMO.

The lack of options for Flacco concerns me regarding room to run, but this could also benefit Rice in the sense that he becomes even more of a receiver perhaps.The o-line worries me though and I'd like more information before I put him in front of Foster (if healthy).

How many more targets can he get though as a receiver? He's been targeted 183 times the last 2 years.