barackdhouse
Footballguy
Did an FPC draft last night and he went 7.07. I took him in a couple others closer to the 10th round.
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RB Antonio Gibson, NE (1 Viewer)
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Hankmoody
Footballguy
I think there will be a significant over-correction toward Gibson and people will regret it. If I had any shares I'd be selling on this news.
(A) I don't believe there's a season this year. That sets them up to draft an RB next year or sign someone. When the cap drops there will be a LOT of guys on mid-level contracts that teams can't keep. Assuming all contracts toll under a lost year guys like Tevin Coleman, Jordan Howard - are those teams going to pay $5M+ to those guys? Gio, Duke, Mark Ingram are at $4m. Latavius, Mostert, Brieda at $3M. That's not a lot, but when teams are tight and there are 3-4 guys at $3-4M each they will have to make decisions. RB is one of the easier positions to do it at too. Heck Fournette's cap number is $8M and they can save $4M trading or cutting him.
(B) I don't believe Gibson's going to have the instincts needed to handle 15+ carries a game. RB is about reading the hole and that takes reps. Sure he's a wonderful athlete and when he does hit the right gap at the right time he's gonna get a lot of yards but he's gonna get fooled a lot too and get stuffed a lot. NFL LB have been chasing fantastic athletes their entire lives, and most of them had a ton of experience toting the rock. Coaches can't trust 15+ carries to that.
(A) I don't believe there's a season this year. That sets them up to draft an RB next year or sign someone. When the cap drops there will be a LOT of guys on mid-level contracts that teams can't keep. Assuming all contracts toll under a lost year guys like Tevin Coleman, Jordan Howard - are those teams going to pay $5M+ to those guys? Gio, Duke, Mark Ingram are at $4m. Latavius, Mostert, Brieda at $3M. That's not a lot, but when teams are tight and there are 3-4 guys at $3-4M each they will have to make decisions. RB is one of the easier positions to do it at too. Heck Fournette's cap number is $8M and they can save $4M trading or cutting him.
(B) I don't believe Gibson's going to have the instincts needed to handle 15+ carries a game. RB is about reading the hole and that takes reps. Sure he's a wonderful athlete and when he does hit the right gap at the right time he's gonna get a lot of yards but he's gonna get fooled a lot too and get stuffed a lot. NFL LB have been chasing fantastic athletes their entire lives, and most of them had a ton of experience toting the rock. Coaches can't trust 15+ carries to that.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Yeah, I understand the consensus value has increased. I'm saying it shouldn't be for the reasons I stated. Guice getting cut does not make it more likely Gibson is good.
I'm probably going to send some offers for the old man. I won't be adding Barber or anything because they'll probably bring in somebody elsr; anybody else has a good chance of being better than 'em.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
I just find it hard to believe they used a high pick (without a second rounder this year) on him if they didn’t see something that they really liked to implement. I am not overly high on him but he does have an interesting skill set that should be fun to see on the field.
az_prof
Footballguy
And this is why scepticism is justified. Also why I see Ty Montgomery as the closest comp and Percy Harvin as maybe his ceiling comp. Montgomery had 39 college carries and 23 was his most in one season. Harvin had 194 and 83 was his most. But if you watch Gibson with the ball in his hand, he shakes arm tackles, moves laterally well, jukes and shakes and is very elusive. Can he run standard in-line plays out of the backfield? We don't really know. But he isn't just a speed guy.
Football Jones
Footballguy
Well, no doubt Gibson's touch count just went up with Guice's release. I guess he could suck, but this cat has pretty rare raw ability.
It wouldn't surprise me in the least if Gibson does well, but again, a fair bit is unknown so it's not like he's a lock for decent production this season.
Love his risk/reward ratio, though, especially at his earlier ADP (previous to the latest news).
rockaction
Footballguy
I don't think you can assume that. We see that it tolls if they opt-out, but if there's a start to the season at all, those contracts might not toll -- they might carry service time with them. That's why this is screwing up dynasty plans so badly.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Right, but that was within my point that I don't think there's any football at all.
rockaction
Footballguy
Certainly. I wasn't correcting you, just adding breadth to it all with my own caveat.
If anyone wants a full explanation, I think I disagree that they won't play at all, whereas I felt like you did off an on since the beginning of this. I now think they'll play; I just don't think they'll make it very far. The only thing that looks good are the cases declining again in hot spots like CA. As far as not making it far, a counterpoint to my own argument is that baseball has thrown competitive balance out the window in honor of television money, and we know how the NFL feels about its television money, so...I'm a little more sanguine there's going to be some sort of season, and it may last longer than I thought.
But that's just a crystal ball approach. Back to Gibson.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Well that would be even worse for Gibson then. It would open up a whole more guys as free agents if their 2020 contracts are fulfilled. Le'Veon Bell and David Johnson are massive cap savings in 2021, Ingram and Howard are both $5M, Drake, Fournette, Gurley, and Hunt are all RFA, and even Cook, Mixon, and Kamara are RFA although there's zero chance they actually hit the open market.
rockaction
Footballguy
You're right. Conner, too, would be a UFA should he hit the open market without an extension, which I think he will.
SproutDaddy
Footballguy
Well, I couldn't be happier than to have landed him in the last round (18) of the one ppr redraft I did last month.
BradtheAg
Footballguy
Trying to figure out where this guy should go in dynasty rookie drafts right now (PPR). He is still floating out there with 1.11 on the clock and willing to deal, but I can't figure out if I should try to move in and grab him. Trying to avoid an AC thread but I think general Shark Pool input about where you'd be comfortable grabbing him in a rookie draft could be constructive for everyone.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
I would consider him early to mid second. Has upside but the waters are muddy in Washington for lot of reasons. I don’t think his value changes much with Guice gone. They either had a predetermined plan for him or not. If they did he should gobble up PPR points, if not he will have up and down weeks while they try to manufacture touches for him week to week.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Seems like Deja Vu here already had this discussion back in June.
70 receptions is a lot for a rookie regardless of what position they play. 70 targets a more reasonable expectation.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I was thinking about this pass protection angle as an idea presented by Trevor Sikkema that Peterson might be used more on passing downs sans Derrius Guice.
Well Peterson sucks at pass protection. He has been bad at this his whole career and this is the main reason he hasn't caught a lot of passes for most of his career.
The other options are Peyton Barber who I think can block, but offers nothing special as a runner or receiver. Not a player you really want on the field because of that but could be used in a pinch or certain plays.
Antonio Gibson has very few pass blocking reps to speak of.
Bryce Love hasn't played in a long time and may or may not be good at this.
How often will Washington actually need their RB to block?
Against certain defenses that are twisting and blitzing a lot it becomes more important. I suppose the emergency break glass move might be to use Barber more in those scenarios if the other 3 are not up to the task.
I wondered about how Rivera handled this with Christian McCaffrey as a rookie and I found out that McCaffrey was terrible in pass protection his rookie season, but they only asked him to block on 8 percent of his passing snaps (he played 70% of the snaps splitting with Johnathan Stewart).
I could see a possibility that Love is better than Gibson in pass protection and as good or better as a receiver and thus earns Chris Thompson snaps and role in the offense. Washington could still use Gibson as a receiver and OW in this scenario. I have not evaluated Love for pass protection. Not sure how he stacks up there.
The other scenario is that Rivera didn't care about McCaffrey sucking in pass protection and they still use Gibson a lot anyways.
Well Peterson sucks at pass protection. He has been bad at this his whole career and this is the main reason he hasn't caught a lot of passes for most of his career.
The other options are Peyton Barber who I think can block, but offers nothing special as a runner or receiver. Not a player you really want on the field because of that but could be used in a pinch or certain plays.
Antonio Gibson has very few pass blocking reps to speak of.
Bryce Love hasn't played in a long time and may or may not be good at this.
How often will Washington actually need their RB to block?
Against certain defenses that are twisting and blitzing a lot it becomes more important. I suppose the emergency break glass move might be to use Barber more in those scenarios if the other 3 are not up to the task.
I wondered about how Rivera handled this with Christian McCaffrey as a rookie and I found out that McCaffrey was terrible in pass protection his rookie season, but they only asked him to block on 8 percent of his passing snaps (he played 70% of the snaps splitting with Johnathan Stewart).
Now maybe Peterson has been better in pass protection since going to Washington than he has been for the majority of his career. I seriously doubt it but maybe he has. The linked article does show a decline in targets for all RB players following a season of poor pass protection. Its all relative, if Peterson is better at pass protection than the other RB options are then maybe he earns more playing time because of that.
I could see a possibility that Love is better than Gibson in pass protection and as good or better as a receiver and thus earns Chris Thompson snaps and role in the offense. Washington could still use Gibson as a receiver and OW in this scenario. I have not evaluated Love for pass protection. Not sure how he stacks up there.
The other scenario is that Rivera didn't care about McCaffrey sucking in pass protection and they still use Gibson a lot anyways.
Craig_MiamiFL
Footballguy
I see a lot of Peterson/Barber early. Barber's is good at nothing but bad at nothing either. Gibson's offensive impact early will be minimal and probably relegated to ST.
Love has the opportunity to do some stuff but he's likely bet is on a PS.
Love has the opportunity to do some stuff but he's likely bet is on a PS.
A lot of good info. I will disagree that there’s a possibility Love is a better receiver than Gibson. Gibson actually catches like a receiver. Has run routes like a receiver. There’s no way Love is better. And I doubt he’s better at pass pro either given that he’s 30 LBs lighter. The coaching staff referenced Gibson’s skillset as a receiver coming out of the backfield. I think anyone thinking he won’t be the favorite to be used in that capacity is overthinking it.Biabreakable said:
Someone has to play the pass catching role and Peterson isn’t good at that and Barber hasn’t really been that guy before either. Maybe they keep McKissic for that but I would think it’s unlikely they don’t use Gibson there. It’s not like the Skins are so loaded with offensive weapons they can afford to bore down that role.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Are they actually even running those type of drills yet?barackdhouse said:
Football Jones
Footballguy
One of the biggest myths still alive in FF is you have to be good at pass pro to catch a lot of passes.
It's nonsense.
It's nonsense.
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Generally agree in this context. There is substantial value in good pass pro getting players on the field for early downs and it’s a factor in winning some roles. And that will factor into Gibson having a chance to reach his substantial upside. But for the role of a receiving running back? You’ve already lost schematically if your passing down back like Sproles, Cohen, Hines, Thompson are pass blocking line backers more than releasing for routes.
Football Jones
Footballguy
Yeah, I think you grasp what I'm getting at when I suggest it's vastly overrated in FF circles.
That said, I get it's a factor, but there's much more important things to worry about as far as receiving production out of the backfield.
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
It's what he said regarding the outlook coming up. He was giving a run down of each back and when they got to Gibson, *one* of the many positives he mentioned is that they *think* he will he good between the tackles. Obviously we'll need to see it.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Gibson owner put him on the block in my Dynasty league & I made an inquiry.
having a hard time putting a value on Gibson. He can’t beat out a 137 year old AP, and coaches are saying he needs work to improve aspects of his game.
but looking to 2021 ~> I’m wondering what the (Washington placeholders) will do at RB. Seems inevitable they’ll draft a couple next year after Guice’s release & AP eventually “falling & cant get up” or choking on a Werther’s Original, or being exposed to sunlight & turning to smoldering pile of dust or (insert anciently old person joke here - hey, I’m about to turn 50, i can make these jokes)....
Is Gibson talented enough to trade for in Dynasty, and if so, what value would you put on him?
side-note: I’ve traded with hm before and this owner tends to overvalue everyone I want and undervalue anyone I offer. lol
having a hard time putting a value on Gibson. He can’t beat out a 137 year old AP, and coaches are saying he needs work to improve aspects of his game.
but looking to 2021 ~> I’m wondering what the (Washington placeholders) will do at RB. Seems inevitable they’ll draft a couple next year after Guice’s release & AP eventually “falling & cant get up” or choking on a Werther’s Original, or being exposed to sunlight & turning to smoldering pile of dust or (insert anciently old person joke here - hey, I’m about to turn 50, i can make these jokes)....
Is Gibson talented enough to trade for in Dynasty, and if so, what value would you put on him?
side-note: I’ve traded with hm before and this owner tends to overvalue everyone I want and undervalue anyone I offer. lol
Kevrunner
Footballguy
Paraphrasing what I heard this morning on local radio show, Washington beat reporter said he thought Love had a good chance to be the starter by mid season, as long as he doesn’t have any setbacks, Gibson will need a lot of time learning the RB position, it’s just so much involved other than getting handoffs and Gibson has so little experience at actually being a RB but he could be something special.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Hell, I don't know. I guess it depends what you have to pay. I wouldn't give a 1st for him.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
JohnnyU
Footballguy
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I believe Darwin Thomas is the illegitimate son of Wendy’s founder Dave Thomas.
clop meant Thompson, probably.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I know, I was just yanking his chain.I believe Darwin Thomas is the illegitimate son of Wendy’s founder Dave Thomas.
clop meant Thompson, probably.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
JohnnyU
Footballguy
FWIW, about 6 weeks ago I was offered Fournette for Gibson, Snell, and a 2nd. I ended up trading Gibson/Snell for Fournette (2nd was dropped). I’m guessing Gibson’s value is much higher now.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Appreciate it - I’m not sure how to feel about that info since I’ve never been super high on Fournette, but it’s good to know roughly what he was going for before this.
my challenge is that I don’t know if the Guice release really changed anything for Gibson other than Gibson owner’s perception. If the (placeholders) draft a couple backs and/or bring in FAs next year that’s a value bubble that could deflate quickly.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
So dude dude with Gibson got back to me (asked what he was looking to get for him) and said he’s “seen him go in the 1st or 2nd round of drafts” lately.
cmon, son.
cmon, son.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Well yeah he is about a late 1st early 2nd now. He was going early to mid 2nd before. Seems reasonable. Whether it is worth it and he'll be any good I have no idea. They did draft him at the top of the 3rd.So dude dude with Gibson got back to me (asked what he was looking to get for him) and said he’s “seen him go in the 1st or 2nd round of drafts” lately.
cmon, son.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I recall his going in the 3rd in our rookie draft.
But things seem to have gotten worse for him other than the Guice release.
as of now Rotoworld has a quote from the coaches indicating that he’s struggling In pass pro & is a ways off
“it'll take time for Antonio Gibson to learn protections and to diagnose blitzes."
also, “ESPN's John Keim believes the Memphis product is talented, but "in an odd offseason it could take time for him to grasp all that he needs to do in order to fully contribute."
These recent quotes lead me to believe Gibson would be less, not more valuable than when we had our rookie draft a month ago.
guess I won’t be targeting him. At best for 2020 he becomes the emergency starter. Which is still for the Washington TBDs, so not really very exciting. Then 2021 & beyond; who knows.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Well that’s an insane stance. But do you.I recall his going in the 3rd in our rookie draft.
But things seem to have gotten worse for him other than the Guice release.
as of now Rotoworld has a quote from the coaches indicating that he’s struggling In pass pro & is a ways off
“it'll take time for Antonio Gibson to learn protections and to diagnose blitzes."
also, “ESPN's John Keim believes the Memphis product is talented, but "in an odd offseason it could take time for him to grasp all that he needs to do in order to fully contribute."
These recent quotes lead me to believe Gibson would be less, not more valuable than when we had our rookie draft a month ago.
guess I won’t be targeting him. At best for 2020 he becomes the emergency starter. Which is still for the Washington TBDs, so not really very exciting. Then 2021 & beyond; who knows.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yea definitely not mine. Did 9 of them and he never made it to the 3rd. I took him at 2.04 in one and 2.06 in another.
There is no universe in which it would make sense for his value to go down after the Guice news. New developments could change that but the obvious consensus *ought* to be that his market value went up. Doesn't mean one owner's individual ranking has to change.
