RB Bijan Robinson, ATL (3 Viewers)

[Dr. Octopus]

I think it says more about how the league values the RB position

This always gets said, year after year, but when there’s a RB that has first round talent, that RB goes in Round 1. It’s actually not a bad thing to have a stud RB on a rookie deal for five years and then move on.

 

[Faust]

Chargers 2023 NFL draft target: Texas RB Bijan Robinson

Chicago Bears 2023 NFL Mock Draft: Can Chicago Make Bijan Robinson Work at 9?

 

[Boston]

there is no way “ this team” will draft

I think just in general any statement that starts out this way has a good chance of making the speaker look dumb in a few weeks.

No different than a fantasy draft...when you think all the other Owners think like you, you're asking for trouble.

 

[zamboni]

I think it says more about how the league values the RB position

This always gets said, year after year, but when there’s a RB that has first round talent, that RB goes in Round 1. It’s actually not a bad thing to have a stud RB on a rookie deal for five years and then move on.

To some extent. Najee Harris and Etienne were the last ones to be drafted in the 1st a few years ago. Breece was probably viewed more highly than those guys pre-draft and he slipped to the second. Bijan seems to be valued a cut above all of them, so I think there’s no question he’ll go in the 1st - just a matter of where.

 

[zamboni]

I think it says more about how the league values the RB position

This always gets said, year after year, but when there’s a RB that has first round talent, that RB goes in Round 1. It’s actually not a bad thing to have a stud RB on a rookie deal for five years and then move on.

To some extent. Najee Harris and Etienne were the last ones to be drafted in the 1st a few years ago. Breece was probably viewed more highly than those guys pre-draft and he slipped to the second. Bijan seems to be valued a cut above all of them, so I think there’s no question he’ll go in the 1st - just a matter of where.

Just to add - your point about 5 years and moving on does make sense though given the shelf life of the position. Just not sure if many teams think that way about RBs and would rather wait.

 

[sushinsky4tsar]

Robinson absolutely without a doubt goes to Chicago at #9.

I think the Foreman signing took the Bears from a betting favorite to a long shot for Bijan's services. I won't entirely rule it out. Hopefully they have the decency to drop Herbert off at a nice rb farm upstate if it happens, but I wouldn't bank on this one.

The Bears were 10th in Vegas odds before the Foreman signing. Bijan was never going top 9 in the draft, I have no idea how in the world you think this.

I don't believe that any team is taking Bijan in the top 10. But you get that teams can move up and down the draft, right? Bears have the ammo to either move down from 9 or move back up.

I'll take your word for 10th on Vegas odds before Foreman, but that doesn't make much sense for a backfield that only had Herbert/Homer/Ebner and all of the draft capital to get it done. Not a lot of backfields that had a larger need prior to Foreman.

 

[massraider]

You add Bijan

I think it says more about how the league values the RB position

This always gets said, year after year, but when there’s a RB that has first round talent, that RB goes in Round 1. It’s actually not a bad thing to have a stud RB on a rookie deal for five years and then move on.

i think you can make an argument that late 1 RBs might be a value play.

Everyone has a different position the Eagles/Falcons/Bills whoever should take, but there’s like a 60% chance that’s not close to an impact player. Do teams get credit for taking a crap CB over a blue chip RB, one of the top 3 players in the draft, just because they ‘need’ a CB? Ha, everyone needs CBs.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Everyone has a different position the Eagles/Falcons/Bills whoever should take, but there’s like a 60% chance that’s not close to an impact player. Do teams get credit for taking a crap CB over a blue chip RB, one of the top 3 players in the draft, just because they ‘need’ a CB? Ha, everyone needs CBs.

100% this.

He’s universally been described as a top 5 talent in this draft.

Now, top 10 seems unrealistic because the NFL draft unfolds a lot like FF SF IDP, if we took OL.

Elite edge rushers aren’t as common, and maybe the top 2-3 DB, along with LT, RT, and of course the big 3-4 QBs.

So ok, once you clear the supply & demand hurdle and teams are looking at those 2nd & 3rd tier defensive players or O-linemen, and top 5 talent Bijan is sitting there - why would a ready to win and needs a RB team pass on him?

IMO he goes inside the top 20 picks.

 

[massraider]

Everyone agrees BPA is the way to go, until the BPA is a RB, and it’s their team.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Everyone agrees BPA is the way to go, until the BPA is a RB, and it’s their team.

Hell, my Niners have CMC and if Bijan is there they should take him with one of their supplemental picks and trade CMC. And then put out a press release calling every other team stupid for not taking him.

 

[sushinsky4tsar]

think the Foreman signing took the Bears from a betting favorite to a long shot for Bijan's services.

I don’t think the Bears ultimately take Bijan but a RB they signed for one year at $3MM shouldn’t be a reason for a team to pass on him.

This is why I'm staying away from categorical "they're 100% taking him" vs "there's no chance in hell" they're taking him statements.

The reality is that with Herbert on board, the Foreman and (to a much lesser degree) Homer signings took this backfield from a glaring obvious need where a significant piece is clearly coming in via free agency or the draft to one that might very well be done unless something on the RB tree falls into their lap. I think the most likely addition would be mid/late round competition for Homer in the passing game at this point, but they might like Ebner enough not to do anything.

I do agree with you, though. If they like Bijan enough, none of Foreman, Herbert, Homer, or Ebner is going to stop them from drafting Bijan. Same can be said for Gibbs, Charbs, Achane, and a dozen other RBs that will make me swear if they're not done. I do think the odds of a Day1/Day 2 pick went down significantly from the point where we were at when the Lions signed Montgomery. This went from something has to happen to a backfield that might pass muster as it now stands.

 

[Deamon]

Robinson absolutely without a doubt goes to Chicago at #9.

I think the Foreman signing took the Bears from a betting favorite to a long shot for Bijan's services. I won't entirely rule it out. Hopefully they have the decency to drop Herbert off at a nice rb farm upstate if it happens, but I wouldn't bank on this one.

The Bears were 10th in Vegas odds before the Foreman signing. Bijan was never going top 9 in the draft, I have no idea how in the world you think this.

I don't believe that any team is taking Bijan in the top 10. But you get that teams can move up and down the draft, right? Bears have the ammo to either move down from 9 or move back up.

I'll take your word for 10th on Vegas odds before Foreman, but that doesn't make much sense for a backfield that only had Herbert/Homer/Ebner and all of the draft capital to get it done. Not a lot of backfields that had a larger need prior to Foreman.

I think banking on trades is a risky game that barely ever pans out. Sure, if the bears trade back a ton (the odds are lower than 50 percent I'm sure) then he could be in play for them. But the reason odds are so low on the bears taking him has their draft spot baked into that. You need a trade partner to also agree and want your pick, agree on compensation, plus get to right in the area bijan is going, plus not be in love with a player when you're on the clock at 9.

I see very little chance he goes to the bears. @Deranged Hermit can probably chime in on this better.

 

[Deranged Hermit]

Robinson absolutely without a doubt goes to Chicago at #9.

I think the Foreman signing took the Bears from a betting favorite to a long shot for Bijan's services. I won't entirely rule it out. Hopefully they have the decency to drop Herbert off at a nice rb farm upstate if it happens, but I wouldn't bank on this one.

The Bears were 10th in Vegas odds before the Foreman signing. Bijan was never going top 9 in the draft, I have no idea how in the world you think this.

I don't believe that any team is taking Bijan in the top 10. But you get that teams can move up and down the draft, right? Bears have the ammo to either move down from 9 or move back up.

I'll take your word for 10th on Vegas odds before Foreman, but that doesn't make much sense for a backfield that only had Herbert/Homer/Ebner and all of the draft capital to get it done. Not a lot of backfields that had a larger need prior to Foreman.

I think banking on trades is a risky game that barely ever pans out. Sure, if the bears trade back a ton (the odds are lower than 50 percent I'm sure) then he could be in play for them. But the reason odds are so low on the bears taking him has their draft spot baked into that. You need a trade partner to also agree and want your pick, agree on compensation, plus get to right in the area bijan is going, plus not be in love with a player when you're on the clock at 9.

I see very little chance he goes to the bears. @Deranged Hermit can probably chime in on this better.

I agree with you about Robinson and the Bears as things currently stand. That being said, rumors are Chicago is looking to trade down again to amass more picks. If they trade into the early 20's and he's still there, who knows. Still doubt it though.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

done. I do think the odds of a Day1/Day 2 pick went down significantly from the point where we were at when the Lions signed Montgomery. This went from something has to happen to a backfield that might pass muster as it now stands.

Agree with this. They addressed the position to the point that they *could* stand pat & invest elsewhere.

Or they could add a 3rd down back.

But taking a “feature back” seems both optional, and like a luxury at the expense of OL, DL, DB, etc.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Breece was probably viewed more highly than those guys pre-draft and he slipped to the second

I don’t believe this is true - despite him going on to look like a first round talent.

Najee Harris and Etienne were the last ones to be drafted in the 1st a few years ago

they were both drafted in 2021 so there’s only been one draft since. I’d bet almost anything that there’s a first round RB in 2023.

 

[ghostguy123]

How many 1st rounders from the 2018 draft are still with the team that drafted them? Especially after the top 5-10 picks? I genuinely don't know. Probably not a super high percentage.
Draft the guy who will help you the most over the next 4-5 years.

 

[zamboni]

Breece was probably viewed more highly than those guys pre-draft and he slipped to the second

I don’t believe this is true - despite him going on to look like a first round talent.

Najee Harris and Etienne were the last ones to be drafted in the 1st a few years ago

they were both drafted in 2021 so there’s only been one draft since. I’d bet almost anything that there’s a first round RB in 2023.

I think we’re arguing the same thing - Bijan will go in the 1st, just not sure it will be that early due to teams hesitant to commit to that position and strong talent (even if less than Bijan) available later.

 

[Faust]

Bijan Robinson Rumors: Scouts Believe RB Will Be Drafted Inside Top 20 Picks After FA

 

[massraider]

I think it will be some team that sees their favorite guys at OT, CB, DE disappear, and they all are like, welp, let’s take the best player in the draft. Fine consolation present

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Bijan Robinson Rumors: Scouts Believe RB Will Be Drafted Inside Top 20 Picks After FA

I’ve been saying that. Yay, I’m a scout!

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Bijan Robinson Rumors: Scouts Believe RB Will Be Drafted Inside Top 20 Picks After FA

I’ve been saying that. Yay, I’m a scout!

I'm only on record for saying he won't make it to 26. Guess I'm a semi-scout.

 

[massraider]

Texans at #12. Why not?

There will probably be two OT, two CB, 4 DL gone by this time this pick appears.

Do you take Van Ness? Joey Porter? Over Bijan?

Smith-Njigba? Slot guy that might be Amon-Ra St Brown (former 4th round pick)? Over a true stud RB? I mean, I think JSN is good (stop me if you've heard this, but Olave and Wilson said he was better than they are ), but I dunno if the juice is worth the squeeze.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Smith-Njigba? Slot guy that might be Amon-Ra St Brown (former 4th round pick)? Over a true stud RB? I

JSN > Gibbs? Sure.

JSN > Bijan? No way. Never.

 

[zamboni]

Texans at #12. Why not?

Keep him in Texas while keeping him away from Jerruh. Sure why not.

Pierce played well but could supplanted by Ryans’ own guy.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Texans at #12. Why not?

Keep him in Texas while keeping him away from Jerruh. Sure why not.

Pierce played well but could supplanted by Ryans’ own guy.

Hell of a way to put a stamp on an offense. Shanny coaching tree.

I never did have shares of Arian Foster in his prime, but 2010 & 2012 were good times to have shares of a Texans RB.

2023 might be too?

 

[menobrown]

Texans love Pierce and would not see value of taking a RB in that spot. Not happening.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Texans love Pierce and would not see value of taking a RB in that spot. Not happening.

Maybe they’ll take him at 2?

 

[Deamon]

He's going to the Chargers at 21 in almost every mock draft released today. Probably won't happen, but that's the area he should go and there's not a lot of RB needy teams around there.

 

[Deamon]

Pats 14
Commanders 16
Bucs 19
Chargers 21
Ravens 22

Seem to be the 5 that make the most sense if there's no trading up for him.

 

[eighsse2]

Pats 14
Commanders 16
Bucs 19
Chargers 21
Ravens 22

Seem to be the 5 that make the most sense if there's no trading up for him.

That's not funny.

 

[Faust]

PFF College @PFF_College
Bijan Robinson: 183 missed tackles forced over the past two seasons

The next closest player has 127

https://twitter.com/pff_college/status/1637206492129492995?s=21

 

[zamboni]

PFF College @PFF_College
Bijan Robinson: 183 missed tackles forced over the past two seasons

The next closest player has 127

https://twitter.com/pff_college/status/1637206492129492995?s=21

The buzz is probably only going to continue to grow before the draft. Can’t see him lasting to the Cowboys.

 

[Deamon]

Pats 14
Commanders 16
Bucs 19
Chargers 21
Ravens 22

Seem to be the 5 that make the most sense if there's no trading up for him.

That's not funny.

Alright, take the Pats out of it. Also take the Texans out of it since they signed Singletary and have Pierce.

Might not, but I feel like he HAS to go in one of these spots:

Commanders 16 (Seems like a pretty good spot for a team looking to make an offensive splash)
Bucs 19 (maybe not though with White there ready to take over?)
Chargers 21 (no if they keep ekeler, HELL YES if they don't)
Ravens 22 (Would they with Dobbins there and a rushing QB and big holes elsewhere?)

Commanders or Chargers are my bet barring a trade up for him which you can never count on and is a less than 50% chance of happening.

 

[rockaction]

I was up last night, mind racing in bed, and I thought Chicago would be the absolute worst place for Bijan to land. I then concluded that he would land there because the football gods don't like fantasy players to have really nice things.

 

[eighsse2]

I was up last night, mind racing in bed, and I thought Chicago would be the absolute worst place for Bijan to land. I then concluded that he would land there because the football gods don't like fantasy players to have really nice things.

 Worst? Nah. But one of, if not the, worst of the realistic possibilites.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I was up last night, mind racing in bed, and I thought Chicago would be the absolute worst place for Bijan to land. I then concluded that he would land there because the football gods don't like fantasy players to have really nice things.

Why you gotta go putting that juju into the world?

 

[rockaction]

Worst? Nah. But one of, if not the, worst of the realistic possibilites.

Who would be worst? I can't think of one. Dallas wouldn't be great with Pollard there for at least one year. San Diego if Ekeler is still there wouldn't be great for at least one year. I'm just thinking long-term here. Fields is not only going to run a ton, he's not a check down guy, which will eat into Bijan's receptions. And Fields is going nowhere given that the Bears just traded down to nine. Seriously can't think of a worse long-term situation for him besides like the Jets and Seattle (who won't be taking him).

 

[nightmare]

I was up last night, mind racing in bed, and I thought Chicago would be the absolute worst place for Bijan to land. I then concluded that he would land there because the football gods don't like fantasy players to have really nice things.

His talent triumphs over that situation.

 

[rockaction]

Why you gotta go putting that juju into the world?

Ever since I traded Njoku for the 2.07, I've been having recurring nightmares about this class. Seems fitting that the juju coming my way gets projected back out into the world.

Should have held Njoku, really.

 

[rockaction]

His talent triumphs over that situation.

Only so many runs to go around, so few check downs for points. I don't know. I'm sure he's an RB1 even if Chicago, but it's not ideal.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Ever since I traded Njoku for the 2.07, I've been having recurring nightmares about this class. Seems fitting that the juju coming my way gets projected back out into the world.

Bijan is going to be a Bengal, Charger, Chief, Bill, or Buc.

In one league I have Fields, Kmet, and Mooney. The FF gods would not be so cruel.

Should have held Njoku, really.

Agreed.

 

[rockaction]

Agreed.

Damn. You sided with my side in the trade thread. I'm beginning to think it was a mistake.



Anyway, back to Bijan and enough about me. Just, Chicago es no bueno.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Damn. You sided with my side in the trade thread. I'm beginning to think it was a mistake.

I’ve come to grow more fond of Njoku in the interim.

I think it’s a fair deal for both sides.

 

[eighsse2]

Worst? Nah. But one of, if not the, worst of the realistic possibilites.

Who would be worst? I can't think of one. Dallas wouldn't be great with Pollard there for at least one year. San Diego if Ekeler is still there wouldn't be great for at least one year. I'm just thinking long-term here. Fields is not only going to run a ton, he's not a check down guy, which will eat into Bijan's receptions. And Fields is going nowhere given that the Bears just traded down to nine. Seriously can't think of a worse long-term situation for him besides like the Jets and Seattle (who won't be taking him).

Yeah, that is basically what I meant. Colts. Jets. Seahawks. Whoever gets Barkley. Places with young, (or at least young enough to not be disappearing in the next 3 years), extremely talented backs. As I said, could very likely be the worst of realistic possibilies. I thought you meant the absolute nightmare #32 of 32 worst situation.

 

[nightmare]

His talent triumphs over that situation.

Only so many runs to go around, so few check downs for points. I don't know. I'm sure he's an RB1 even if Chicago, but it's not ideal.

K Hebert ran for 732 on 129 carries(5.6 avg). I think B Robinson gets minimum 200 carries, closer to 250.
Foe the season he will not average that but 5.0 is realistic. D Montgomery ave'd 4 yds on 200.

 

[rockaction]

Yeah, that is basically what I meant. Colts. Jets. Seahawks. Whoever gets Barkley. Places with young, (or at least young enough to not be disappearing in the next 3 years), extremely talented backs. As I said, could very likely be the worst of realistic possibilies. I thought you meant the absolute nightmare #32 of 32 worst situation.

Oh, okay. I was thinking worst of the viable options. But who knows? Maybe one of those teams stuns people and takes Robinson, but I really, really doubt it.

 

[foxco]

In one league I have Fields, Kmet, and Mooney. The FF gods would not be so cruel.

Those Gods are ruthless. Like Old Testament ruthless. You wanna make the FF gods Laugh? Show 'em your draft.

 

[rockaction]

K Hebert ran for 732 on 129 carries(5.6 avg). I think B Robinson gets minimum 200 carries, closer to 250.
Foe the season he will not average that but 5.0 is realistic. D Montgomery ave'd 4 yds on 200.

I agree with the likely amount of carries, but how about pass catching? If it's full PPR, we're talking major concern here.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

In one league I have Fields, Kmet, and Mooney. The FF gods would not be so cruel.

Those Gods are ruthless. Like Old Testament ruthless. You wanna make the FF gods Laugh? Show 'em your draft.

I will give them rum and cigars?

 

[nightmare]

K Hebert ran for 732 on 129 carries(5.6 avg). I think B Robinson gets minimum 200 carries, closer to 250.
Foe the season he will not average that but 5.0 is realistic. D Montgomery ave'd 4 yds on 200.

I agree with the likely amount of carries, but how about pass catching? If it's full PPR, we're talking major concern here.

D Montgomery ave'd 2 a game for a little over 9 yds per. B Robinson could easily bump that to 11 yards