Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
I've been saying things similar to you. The counter-argument is what he did on tape in the SEC against grown men and his BMI given his size. That, some people argue, is what you need to look at. I'm not unconvinced he'll break tackles -- he's built like a truck. But will he be quick enough in space to truly be pro effective? Reports out of camp are good. I personally will bypass him in redraft and let others reap the benefits should he prove to be RB6 or RB7.
He's not really a single lottery ticket. At his price, he's more like having to pay up front for over half of all the lottery tickets and hope one of the tickets hits.
Couldn't agree more. Love the kid, traded up to grab him 1st in my rookie draft before DWill opted out, but there's no way he sniffs CMC's jock this year.
Me too. I can entertain a battle of do you take CMC or Barkley or even Thomas there, but not that.JoeJoe88 said:
I tend to be guided in my redraft by a few experts (not specifying the ones I trust, league mates, you know) and they have CEH rated highly, in the back end of the first round. That's where I am, so I'm intrigued. My own take him on him was similar to this, that he'll struggle to adjust to the NFL a bit, especially with no OTAs etc., but I wonder if even if used mainly as a receiving back he'll justify a selection as the 7th or 8th RB off the board? (I find it hard to put him ahead of CMac, Zeke, Saq, AK, Henry)
I don't think you're wrong at all. I'm just not sure enough about his role given there are no preseason games to use a first rounder on him. I just did a draft where he went the pick before my eleventh, so it was moot, but I would have passed regardless. Fortune favors the bold, though. Good luck.
Rock, I respect your opinions a ton (I've been guided to pick up a few WRs ahead of adp in drafts based on your thoughts, and I've benefited greatly) so I'm interested. Where WOULD you take him? At #11 it seems to me that if you DID take him you'd end up in a similar spot to taking him in the second round, as you'd only probably miss on some combo of Jones/Sanders/Mixon etc. So clearly you wouldn't take him early second either. Late second? Obviously you're not getting him there, but where do you rate him? Back in 2017 I gambled on Hunt early third (he was getting a lot of late hype) and in retrospect he was worth a first-round pick. I agree, these rookie selections are real head-scratchers, but the situation seems to be perfect.
Thanks, man, for the kind words. I don't know where I'd take him. I could likely always find a back to justify over him. My own personal bias is against CEH's whole package, but as people have pointed out, I may really be missing something. The Super Bowl Champs think so. So I'll allow for the possibility that I could be dead wrong and I should say that I really like the video of him at LSU and have always been torn, because the highlights are great, but his measurements aren't. But people then tell me I'm focused on the wrong measurements, and it comes from people whose opinion I also respect, so I've just removed myself from giving any advice about CEH. It's a touchstone for me, and I may really be wrong given the pushback to my opinions. He's a got a really reasonable BMI and a very good burst score, two things that people think (I'm not sure how much they actually do) predict success more than his speed score will, which is based on weight and 40 time.
I think the latest he goes and where I'd WANT to take him is late first early second. Probably after Miles Sanders.
Agreed, and really all backs have questions. Sanders has never done it for a full year. Henry was only RB17 through week 10 last year. Etc etc.
Considering what Hunt did in that offense his rookie year, not sure how he is riskier than some of the other RBs there.
David Johnson had a pretty good rookie season in Arians’ offense. Would you draft Vaughn as a top 8 RB if Jones got hurt?
Right, because a 1st round pick that is going to be a workhorse back for a top offense, and catch a ton of passes, should be compared to a 4th string RB that will barely see the field.
Whoa, I agree with this particular, but a lot of people would draft him that high, actually. And did. I can say with a good deal of certainty that I wouldn't with Vaughn because he was never that impressive in highlights (what we call "film"). But situation does play a role, doesn't it? I mean it deterred me from D'Andre Swift because I didn't think the talent outweighed the situation necessarily and you want rookie backs to hit and hit quickly in terms of fantasy effectiveness these days.
Are you suggesting a rb drafted in the 3rd round can’t finish as a RB1?
Well, you say CEH isn’t risky because a rookie rb had previous success in the offense. I gave you a second example but you say no to that one. Just seeing if you are consistent in your reasoning.
I’m suggesting that Vaughn is currently the 4th string RB in Tampa and will likely be inactive on game days, so it was a poor comparison.
Kareem Hunt was in the same situation as Vaughn and he was offered as an example why CEH isn’t risky
I never said he isn't risky. I said he's no more risky than the other backs in tier, and is in the right offense to flourish. Based on RB production Reid offers in his offense, the upside is there. I mentioned Hunt because he's a prime example of what can happen in the situation CEH has himself in. Whether Philly or KC, Reid has been able to have great FF production from almost every back who's been inserted into the starting role. The comparison you made isn't the same situation. Different coaches with one have much more success producing what CEH is being drafted for. CEH is a 1st rd pick with no competition. Vaughn isn't of the same talent and is in a completely different situation. No, I wouldn't draft Vaughn in the top 10 if Jones went down. McCoy is there as well. I was lucky enough to get Hunt in the 3rd rd his rookie year as my RB1, and my gamble paid off. I took CEH in my money league last week at pick 8 and couldn't be more excited about it. I had 3 of the 4 people picking behind me cussing because of it.
I don't see their situations as the same. Vaughn has at least 2 RBs ahead of him if not 3. Hunt only had 1, and if memory serves me correctly, Spencer Ware didn't exactly have the starting job locked up.
I was afraid I out smarted myself, but was stoked to be able to swoop him up at 1.08 today after Henry (1.05), Cook (1.06) and Thomas (1.07).
Going ahead of Zeke and Henry is nutstheToes said:
Have your read this thread about how little he will likely be asked to do that? How little the chiefs had rbs in passpro last yr?
Tannehill didn’t take over until week 7. Decent QB play made all the difference in Henry’s stats. I don’t think they will be as efficient as last year. I do like CEH but to argue Henry wasn’t a top 10 RB the first 10 weeks is a weak one
I'm in the same slot and was mulling Cook/Kamara, but now I'm leery.
I'm in the same position in my 0.5 point PPR league. I was not going to take Cook at 4 and now the Kamara contract issue is a concern. To me, Henry seems like the better choice over CEH. Yeah we know Reid feeds his RBs, but let's not forget there are several other mouths to feed there (Hill, Kelce, etc...) plus Darrel Williams, DeAndre Washington and Darwin Thompson are not going to simply fade away. As for Henry, he was the # 3 RB in my league last year. He is a human bowling ball--with zero competition for reps and a lot of talk that he is going to catch more balls out of the backfield this year. I am not saying that CEH isn't a 1st round pick, but to take him over Henry (unless it is a full PPR) seems like more than a bit of a stretch.
Absolutely thinking the same thing (i.e. reaching for Taylor early in the 3rd at pick # 28). But I am not so sure I would call Henry a "low ceiling" guy. Let's not forget that the Titans were one-dimensional early last year until they dropped Mariota (who could not throw for chit) and went to Tannehill. Now they actually have at least a threat of a passing game--with a developing WR stud in A.J. Brown. If Henry is "low ceiling" then he is as about as much of a "high floor" as you can get.
